Core Viewpoint - The market is gradually digesting positive events, leading to a high-level fluctuation and subsequent decline in gold prices, which fell below the $4600 mark, closing around $4588 per ounce on the COMEX [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the A-share market close, the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) increased by 0.13%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) rose by 2.56%, and the non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) gained 1.05% [1] Group 2: Margin Requirement Changes - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced a change in the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts, moving from a fixed dollar amount to a percentage of nominal value [1] - This change is set to take effect after Tuesday's close and is described as a normal assessment of market volatility aimed at ensuring sufficient collateral coverage [1] Group 3: Short-term Implications - According to Christopher Wong, a strategist at OCBC Bank, the adjustment in margin rules may temporarily exert pressure on precious metals in the short term [1] - The percentage-based method is expected to better reflect the required margin levels, reducing the need for frequent adjustments; however, CME may still increase the percentage if volatility exceeds historical levels or unforeseen circumstances arise [1]

| | 板块名称 涨跌幅 (%) 板块资金流向 | | 净流入最大 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电网设备 | 1.14 | 19.56亿元 | 特变电工 | | 医疗器械 | 1.28 | 13.32亿元 | 迈瑞医疗 | | 化学制药 | 1.23 | 11.16亿元 | 尔康制药 | | 能源金属 | 1.5 | 9.84亿元 | 赣锋锂业 | | 生物制品 | 2.53 | 9.09亿元 | 康乐卫士 | | 游戏 | 1.22 | 8.86亿元 | 掌趣科技 | | 医疗服务 | 3.45 | 8.42亿元 | 国际医学 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1.94 | 5.28亿元 | 海王生物 | | 银行 | 0.67 | 4.84亿元 | 农业银行 | | | 3.54 | 4.75亿元 | 湖南白银 | | 医药商业 贵金属 | | | | *数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议 据交易所数据显示，截至1月13日收盘，大盘主力资金净流出1805.56亿元。主力资金流入前十大板块分别为： 电网设备（19.56亿元）、 医疗器械（13.32亿 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, and provides corresponding market analysis, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each market [1][2][5] Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: On Monday, precious metal prices continued to rise, with London gold reaching $4,600 per ounce. The fundamentals are affected by geopolitical factors and inventory changes. It is recommended to go long on gold [1] - **Silver**: The silver price reached $85 per ounce. The speculation sentiment is strong, and the overall volatility increases. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price continued to strengthen. The supply of copper mines remains tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2] - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum rose by 1.01% to 24,575 yuan per ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly rising. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [2] - **Alumina**: The price of alumina rose by 0.81% to 2,866 yuan per ton. The market is in a state of oversupply, and it is expected to be in a weak shock [2] - **Zinc and Lead**: The zinc price is driven by macro - sentiment and funds, but the fundamentals are not strong. The lead market shows a weak reality, and it is recommended to wait and see for zinc and operate in a range or be bearish on lead [3] - **Silicon**: The silicon price fluctuates. The supply is affected by production reduction, and the demand in some industries is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 9,200 yuan per ton, and it is advisable to go short lightly on rallies [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand in some industries is decreasing. It is expected that the price will be supported and is likely to rise rather than fall [3] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The polycrystalline silicon price fell. The market is affected by regulatory factors, and the supply is expected to decrease. The demand in some downstream industries is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level [3] - **Tin**: The tin price continued to strengthen. The supply of tin mines remains tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Black Industry - **Rebar**: The rebar price rose slightly. The inventory is decreasing, and the supply - demand relationship is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions on the 2605 contract [5] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price fell slightly. The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the demand may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [5] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price rose slightly. The supply - demand relationship is weak, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to short the 2605 contract [5] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean price fell. The global soybean supply is expected to be loose. The US soybean is weak, and the domestic far - month contract is under pressure. The near - month contract depends on the game between the throwing volume and customs clearance [7] - **Corn**: The corn futures price is strong, and the spot price rose slightly. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil price rose. The supply is in a seasonal decline, and the demand is increasing. The inventory has risen. The oils and fats market is expected to be in a strong shock, and the long - term weak seasonal decline cycle can be traded [7] - **Sugar**: The sugar price fell. The international sugar price is under pressure from Indian production. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [7] - **Cotton**: The cotton price rose slightly. The international cotton supply and demand are changing, and the domestic cotton price is rising. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 14,600 - 15,000 yuan per ton [7] - **Eggs**: The egg futures price fell, and the spot price is stable. The supply and demand are balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Hogs**: The hog futures price fell, and the spot price rose in some areas. The supply pressure is not significant in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [8] - **Apples**: The apple price fell. The total output is low, and the inventory is low, but the sales pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [8] Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE price rebounded slightly. The supply pressure is slowing down, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a strong shock in the short term and advisable to buy on dips in the medium term [8] - **PVC**: The PVC price fell and then rebounded. The supply is high, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread of short - selling the 05 contract and long - buying the 09 contract [8] - **PTA**: The PX and PTA supply are high, and the demand is weak. The PX price is expected to be strong in the medium term, and it is advisable to look for opportunities to buy the 05 contract for processing fees [9] - **Rubber**: The rubber price rose. The raw material price is high, and the inventory is increasing. It is advisable to hold short - term short positions cautiously [9] - **Glass**: The glass price is stable. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct a long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [9] - **PP**: The PP price rebounded slightly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is rising. It is expected to be in a strong shock in the short term and advisable to go short on rallies in the medium term [9] - **MEG**: The MEG supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies [10] - **Crude Oil**: The oil price rose. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short the oil as a bearish allocation and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [10] - **Styrene**: The styrene price rebounded slightly. The supply and demand of pure benzene are weak, and the styrene supply and demand are weakening. It is expected to be in a shock in the short term, and it is advisable to go long on styrene or conduct a pure benzene reverse spread in the second quarter [10] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [10]

2）影响因素分析: 一方面，特朗普发表关于伊朗局势的较为激进言论、令市场对美伊局势或进一步升级的担忧加剂，超险需求升温推开贵金属价格，另一方面, 同帮班，美联储主席鲍威尔遭刑事调查加剧市场对美联储独立性的担忧，同时在政治施压下市场或提前博弈降息加码预期，也对责金属价格构成利好。其次，从基本面上来 取提微微青，白银现货维持升水，现货偏紧格局不改、加上光伏出口退税政策短期或改善自银需求预期，都进一步助力报价弹性释放。综上、展望后市，短期在宏观和基本 赌《个》面支撑的双重利好下，预计贵金属价格科维持筛强运行，但在上期所、芝商所均领赛出台风控指施以利制投机亲度和贵金属市场获利了结压力仍较大等背景下、其 ■39. 以 价格波动幅度或仍会较为剧烈、建议控制仓位。后续，需继续密切关注伊朗局势进展、美联储主席鲍威尔调查和新任主席人选、特朗普夫税期决、美国2030直结果 供参考) 、美国CPI 等一系列事件。长期来看，贵金属的上涨逻辑并未逆转，策略上仍以逢低做多或卖浅虚看跌期权为主。 3）中长期现点：中长期来看，美联储仍处于宽松周期、大国博弈加剧和进全球化趋势将令全球地缘不确定性持续、美国巨额债务承美联储独立性削弱将进一步增 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant adjustment today, with all three major indices closing lower, particularly the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices leading in declines. The trading volume exceeded 3.6 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, with over 3,700 stocks declining [1][2] - Concerns are rising regarding the adjustment risks following the sustained increase in trading volume. Historical data indicates that instances of trading volumes exceeding 3 trillion yuan are primarily concentrated in October 2024 and August-September 2025, which were followed by significant market fluctuations [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector saw a downturn, with several stocks hitting the daily limit down. Companies in this sector issued warnings to investors about the need for cautious decision-making amid the ongoing price increases [1] - Conversely, the innovative drug concept showed strong performance, with stocks like Rongchang Bio and Nossger reaching the daily limit up. The precious metals sector was also active, with Mingpai Jewelry hitting the daily limit up, and oil and gas stocks rebounding [2] Fund Flow - Major funds focused on sectors such as medical services, energy metals, and chemical pharmaceuticals, with notable net inflows into stocks like Haige Communication, Ganfeng Lithium, and Yongyou Network [3] Policy Developments - A research team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences made significant progress in the development of high-performance sodium-ion battery cathode materials, which could enhance sodium ion transport and cycling stability [4] - Guangzhou is seeking support from the national integrated circuit industry fund for major project construction, aiming to bolster the city's position in the integrated circuit industry [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to lead the formulation of the "14th Five-Year" plan for circular economy development, focusing on resource utilization efficiency and green low-carbon transformation [6] Economic Outlook - According to Zhongtai Securities, long-term capital is expected to support the market, with policies likely to maintain active trading. The macroeconomic environment suggests that China may remain in a weak recovery phase in 2026, with technology sectors benefiting from sustained policy support [8] - Dongfang Securities noted that while the market is currently healthy, there are concerns about potential volatility due to the high turnover and the possibility of sector rotation, which could impact stock valuations [9]

1月13日，A股三大股指早盘冲高回落，午后震荡下跌，截止收盘，上证综指下跌26.53点，跌幅0.64% 报4138.76点；深证成指下跌197.51点，跌幅1.37%报14169.4点；沪深300指数下跌28.88点，跌幅0.6%报 4761.03点；创业板指下跌66.45点，跌幅1.96%报3321.89点；科创50指数下跌42.27点，跌幅2.8%报 1469.57点；盘中创业板指一度跌超2%，沪指跌近1%；全天成交额较昨日再度放量，两市成交额录得 3.65万亿再创历史新高，两市超3500只个股下跌。 盘面上，AI应用概念逆势上涨，十余只成分股涨停，引力传媒、利欧股份、省广集团涨停。AI医疗概 念反复活跃，美年健康3连板，泓博医药、新赣江等多股涨停。电网设备概念午后走强，特变电工、三 变科技涨停；零售概念表现活跃，三江购物2连板；贵金属板块走高，晓程科技涨超8%；减肥药板块拉 升，普洛医药逼近涨停；创新药、锂矿概念及游戏等板块涨幅居前。下跌方面，多家公司公告提示风 险，商业航天、卫星互联网板块大退潮，航天电子、中国卫通、航天科技等近百股跌超8%；大飞机、 军工板块走低，中天火箭、雷科防务等多股跌停；可控核 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.64% to 4138 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.37%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.96% [1] - The total market turnover reached a record high of 3.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 54.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3700 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace and satellite internet sectors experienced significant downturns, with nearly 100 stocks, including Aerospace Electronics, China Satellite Communications, and Aerospace Science and Technology, falling over 8% [1] - The large aircraft and military sectors also declined, with stocks like Zhongtian Rocket and Leike Defense hitting the daily limit down [1] - The controllable nuclear fusion sector saw a drop, with Wangzi New Materials hitting the daily limit down [1] - The communication equipment sector fell, with Changjiang Communication hitting the daily limit down [1] - Other sectors with notable declines included Beidou Navigation, quantum technology, 3D printing, CPO concepts, and F5G concepts [1] Positive Sector Movements - The pharmaceutical sector saw a broad increase, with recombinant proteins, CRO, and medical services leading the gains, and stocks like Baihua Pharmaceutical and Boji Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit up [1] - The precious metals sector rose, with Xiaocheng Technology increasing over 8% [1] - Pfizer announced plans to launch a GLP-1 weight loss drug by 2028, boosting the weight loss drug sector, with Prolo Pharmaceutical nearing the daily limit up [1] - Other sectors with notable gains included innovative drugs, lithium mining concepts, and gaming [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on January 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4163.84 points, down 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.31%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.83% [2] - A total of 2427 stocks rose while 2862 stocks fell, indicating a mixed market sentiment [4] Sector Performance - The healthcare services, lithium mining, precious metals, and insurance sectors showed notable gains, while sectors such as commercial aerospace, communication equipment, and shipbuilding faced declines [4] - The healthcare services sector rose by 6.61%, lithium mining by 4.86%, and precious metals by 3.91% [5] Lithium Mining Sector - Lithium mining stocks surged, with major players like Tibet Summit hitting the daily limit, and companies such as Salt Lake Industry and Ganfeng Lithium rising over 7% [13] - The price of lithium carbonate futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassed 170,000 yuan per ton, marking a rise of over 9% and reaching a new high since October 2023 [7] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector showed resilience, with China Life Insurance rising over 3% to a market value of 1,279.4 billion yuan, and Ping An Insurance increasing over 2% to a market value of 1,203.4 billion yuan [10][12] - A report from Guojin Securities predicts that new insurance premiums for listed companies will achieve double-digit growth by 2026, driven by the bancassurance channel and increased market share of large insurers [15] AI Healthcare Sector - AI healthcare stocks experienced significant activity, with companies like Di'an Diagnostics and Nossger hitting the daily limit, and others like Meien Health and International Medicine also seeing substantial gains [16] - Nvidia announced a joint investment of $1 billion with Eli Lilly to establish an AI drug laboratory, aiming to accelerate medical discoveries [18] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector saw a rise, with spot gold prices reaching a record high of $4630.28 per ounce [20] - Stocks such as Hunan Silver and Xiaocheng Technology rose over 8%, while other companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold also experienced gains [21]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant surge in January 2026, with gold and silver prices breaking historical peaks, driven by increased risk aversion amid rising policy uncertainty from the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks [1][4]. Market Performance - On January 12, 2026, spot gold reached a milestone of $4,600 per ounce, with a daily increase of up to 2%, while spot silver surged nearly 5% to surpass $84 per ounce, both hitting historical highs [3]. - The domestic market mirrored this excitement, with the Shanghai silver futures contract hitting the daily limit with an increase of over 11%, and Shanghai gold rising more than 2% to a historical high of 1,031.30 yuan per gram [3]. - Silver's performance was particularly notable, with a monthly increase of 44.74%, and the Guotou Silver LOF seeing an annual increase of over 8%, with circulating shares reaching a record high of 3.139 billion [3]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The escalation of internal conflicts within the Federal Reserve was a key driver of the risk aversion trade, highlighted by Chairman Powell's confirmation of a subpoena related to potential misuse of funds in a renovation project, which has raised concerns about the independence of monetary policy [4]. - The internal policy divisions within the Fed have become pronounced, with a notable split in the December 2025 meeting where 9 members supported a 25 basis point rate cut while 3 opposed it, marking the most significant decision split since 2019 [4]. Market Reactions - The surge in policy uncertainty has led to a re-evaluation of market pricing, prompting a flow of funds into gold and silver assets as the Fed's turmoil raises doubts about future policy directions [5]. - The U.S. dollar index weakened rapidly, and the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries declined, while gold and silver emerged as safe-haven assets, supported by disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data that fell short of expectations [5]. - In the first week of January, gold ETFs saw accelerated inflows, with net subscriptions exceeding 400 million shares, and global gold ETF assets under management surpassing $350 billion, the highest level since 2020 [5]. Diverging Market Sentiment - There is a clear divide in market sentiment regarding the sustainability of the gold and silver price surge, with optimistic views suggesting continued upward potential due to persistent policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks [6]. - UBS has raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $5,000 per ounce, while Bank of America predicts silver prices could soar to a range of $135 to $309 per ounce [7]. - Cautious perspectives highlight potential short-term pullback risks, with warnings from UBS about the possibility of profit-taking following rapid price increases and the potential for volatility due to regulatory measures [7]. Key Variables Influencing Future Trends - The progress of Powell's criminal investigation will significantly impact the trajectory of policy uncertainty, potentially exacerbating market risk aversion [8]. - Upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and U.S. inflation data will reshape interest rate expectations, while the flow of funds into gold ETFs and central bank purchases will influence the support for gold and silver prices [8]. - Global geopolitical developments and industrial demand, particularly for silver in sectors like photovoltaics and AI, will also play crucial roles in shaping market trends [8].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metals Sector**: The focus is on precious metals, industrial metals, and energy metals, with a positive outlook for 2026, particularly for gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and lithium [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Precious Metals Demand**: Expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks are driving demand for precious metals, particularly gold. Central banks are increasing gold reserves, and ETF purchases are expected to be a significant source of demand in 2026. Recommended stocks include Zhaojin Mining, Shandong Gold, and others [1][7]. - **Silver Price Volatility**: Silver prices are expected to rise but with greater volatility compared to gold. The potential impact of U.S. tariffs may increase hoarding demand for silver [7][8]. - **Industrial and Energy Metals Outlook**: The outlook for industrial metals like copper and aluminum is positive due to expected recovery in traditional demand and macroeconomic support from interest rate cuts. Recommended stocks include Yun Aluminum and Wanfang [3][4][19][20]. - **Supply Challenges**: The supply side for industrial and energy minerals faces challenges such as declining resource grades, rising extraction costs, and geopolitical instability. These factors are expected to support prices [5][9]. - **Lithium Demand Dynamics**: The cancellation of export tax rebates is leading to a surge in short-term demand for lithium batteries, with prices expected to rise significantly. Long-term impacts are anticipated to stabilize as foreign buyers absorb costs [10][11][12]. - **Nickel Market Dynamics**: Nickel prices are under pressure due to quota adjustments by the Indonesian government, which may limit price increases. However, the market remains worth monitoring [13]. - **Copper Price Trends**: Recent copper prices have shown strength, influenced by U.S. economic data and supply disruptions in South America. Long-term expectations are for price increases driven by macroeconomic conditions [14][15]. - **Tin Price Surge**: Tin prices have risen significantly due to supply constraints and strong demand in AI and PVD applications. Recommended stocks include Xie Co., Huaxi Co., and Xingye Silver Tin [16]. - **Tungsten Price Trends**: Tungsten prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply and increasing demand in strategic sectors. Recommended stocks include Xiamen Property and Jiaxing International Resources [17][18]. - **Aluminum Market Performance**: Aluminum prices have reached new highs, supported by macroeconomic policies and geopolitical risks. The market is expected to remain tight in 2026, with recommended stocks including Yun Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum [19][20]. - **Rare Earth Market Dynamics**: Rare earth prices have increased due to policy impacts and basic demand recovery. The simplification of export licenses is expected to enhance export efficiency and support demand [21][22][23][24]. Additional Important Insights - **Steel Industry Trends**: The steel industry is experiencing a rise in inventory and production levels, with profitability slightly declining but still above historical lows. The focus is on companies with strong cash flow and dividend yields [25][26][27][28]. - **Geopolitical Impacts**: Recent geopolitical tensions and trade policies are influencing metal prices and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations [2][6][8]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the metals industry.