1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the performance and trends of various black commodities on August 5, 2025, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. It provides short - term price trend predictions for each commodity based on factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures market had a narrow - range shock. The inventory increased, indicating pressure on the supply - demand fundamentals. However, expectations of anti - involution policies and rumors of military parade production restrictions boosted market sentiment. It is expected that the rebar futures market will have a narrow - range consolidation in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract rose. The supply decreased as Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, and the demand weakened with a drop in molten iron production. Considering the "anti - involution" sentiment and military parade production restrictions, it is expected that the iron ore price will show an oscillatory consolidation trend in the short term [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market rose. The upstream coal mine inventory decreased, and the downstream was replenishing stocks. After the fifth round of coke price increases, the profit of coke enterprises improved, but the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced resources declined. It is expected that the coking coal futures market will have a wide - range shock in the short term [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market rose. After the fifth round of price increases, the profit of coke enterprises improved, and the production remained stable. The cost pressure eased, and the rigid demand from steel mills continued. It is expected that the coke futures market will have a wide - range shock in the short term [1]. - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The ferromanganese silicon futures price had a narrow - range shock. The "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, and the market returned to fundamental trading. The production increased in July, while the demand from steel mills was weak. Considering the tight spot market, it is expected that the ferromanganese silicon price will oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated weakly. The "anti - involution" driver cooled down, and the supply increased in July. The demand from the steel industry was weak, and the inventory was at a high level. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will have a wide - range shock in the short term [1][3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides the latest values and month - on - month changes of contract spreads (such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) for various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [4]. - **Basis**: It shows the latest values and month - on - month changes of the basis for different contracts of each commodity [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The latest spot prices and their month - on - month changes in different regions for each commodity are presented [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Information on profits (such as rebar futures trading profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and cross - commodity spreads (such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) of black commodities is provided [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025 are presented, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [7][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of the main contracts of various black commodities over different periods are shown, helping to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different - period contracts of various black commodities are provided, which are useful for analyzing price differences between different contract months [26][28][30][33][35][36][39]. - **Cross - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts of cross - commodity spreads of black commodities are presented, such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc., to analyze the relative price relationships between different commodities [41][43][44]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts of the futures trading profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar are provided to show the profit situation of the rebar industry over time [46][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, professional backgrounds, work experience, and relevant qualifications [52][53].

Summary of Iron Ore Market Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the iron ore market, specifically the pricing and demand dynamics in China, which is a major consumer of iron ore [2][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Current Pricing Trends**: The spot price for 62% Fe iron ore has decreased to $99 per ton from $105 per ton in late July, with expectations for prices to remain in the $95-100 per ton range for the remainder of Q3 [2][3][5]. 2. **Fundamental Support**: While consumption is expected to provide a floor at $95 per ton, the anticipated disappointment from stimulus measures and anti-innovation policies is likely to exert downward pressure on prices [2][3][5]. 3. **Future Price Forecast**: The forecast indicates a decline in iron ore prices to $90 per ton by the end of 2025, driven by weakening Chinese consumption and an increase in low-cost supply [2][3][16]. 4. **Stimulus Measures**: The July Politburo meeting did not announce major new stimulus, aligning with low expectations. Incremental easing may occur only if hard data shows significant growth headwinds in H2 [6][15]. 5. **Steel Demand from Property Sector**: No significant increase in steel demand from the property sector is expected due to a declining population, slower urbanization, and reduced demolition demand [7][8]. 6. **Infrastructure Sector Investment**: Although there is a positive growth expectation for steel demand in the infrastructure sector, recent investments are viewed as strategic rather than indicative of a cyclical recovery [8]. 7. **Production and Capacity Dynamics**: The weak labor market limits the potential for large-scale production cuts, and while steel production is expected to decline in H2, this is attributed to lower demand rather than mandated cuts [15][16]. 8. **Steelmaking Margins**: Steelmaking margins have improved but are expected to narrow due to rising coking coal prices and pressure on domestic steel prices, which may impact iron ore prices [15][16]. 9. **Supply Dynamics**: Global iron ore shipments are recovering, with Brazilian shipments up 2% year-over-year in July and Australian shipments up 5% year-over-year [34][36]. Additional Important Insights - **Long Steel Demand**: Long steel apparent demand is currently in line with last year but remains 36% below the 2016-2023 average, indicating a significant decline in demand [11][66]. - **Inventory Levels**: Mills' inventory of imported iron ore has returned to last year's levels, suggesting stable supply dynamics despite fluctuations in demand [28][30]. - **Market Positioning**: Managed money net positioning has shifted to a marginally long position, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [21]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the complexities of the iron ore market, emphasizing the interplay between demand, supply, and policy measures that will shape future pricing and market dynamics.

中国物流与采购联合会大宗商品流通分会副会长 周旭：中国大宗商品价格指数环比连续三个月回升，大宗商品市场的运行，总体持续回暖。在目前整 个国家"反内卷"的相关政策以及逆周期调节政策的加力实施下，我们国家大宗商品市场总体保持扩张态势。 另外，专家表示，我国大宗商品价格与全球经济关联度较高。当前全球大宗商品价格波动加剧，外部不确定、不稳定风险仍然较多，部分行业仍面临有 效需求不足、生产经营压力加大等问题。下一步仍需进一步发挥大宗商品流通在扩内需、稳增长、促发展方面的重要作用，激发增强经济内生动力和创新活 力，继续巩固经济回升向好的基础。 7月份中国大宗商品价格指数为111.4点，环比上涨0.5%。分行业看，黑色价格指数止跌反弹，有色价格指数继续上涨。在中国物流与采购联合会重点监 测的50种大宗商品中，价格环比上涨的大宗商品有32种。其中，碳酸锂、工业硅和焦煤的价格较上月分别上涨10.2%、9.8%和9.6%。 央视网消息：中国物流与采购联合会8月5日公布7月份中国大宗商品价格指数。从指数运行情况看，指数连续三个月环比回升，表明企业生产经营活动 继续回暖，大宗商品市场运行持续稳定恢复，总体保持扩张态势。 ...

Report Overview - The report is a Guotai Junan Futures' commodity research morning report for the black series dated August 5, 2025, covering various commodities including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate repeatedly, while rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are likely to experience wide-range oscillations as market sentiment cools. Coke and coking coal are also forecasted to have wide-range fluctuations, and logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Yesterday's futures closing price was 790.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 0.96%. Some imported ore prices remained stable, while some domestic ore prices decreased. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - Rebar's RB2510 contract closed at 3,204 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.28%, and hot-rolled coil's HC2510 contract closed at 3,417 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.26%. Spot prices showed mixed changes. The trend strength for both is 0 [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,674 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan, and silicomanganese 2509 closed at 5,972 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased. The trend strength for both is 0 [12] Coke and Coking Coal - Coking coal's JM2509 contract closed at 1,005.5 yuan/ton, up 20.5 yuan or 2.1%, and coke's J2509 contract closed at 1,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.9%. Some spot prices of coking coal decreased. The trend strength for both is 0 [16] Logs - The 2509 contract of logs closed at 842 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.5% and a weekly increase of 1.4%. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable. The trend strength is 0 [20] Macro and Industry News - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. In mid-July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased compared to the previous period [4][9][17]

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) rose by 0.5% month-on-month in July 2025, marking three consecutive months of positive growth, indicating optimistic business expectations and overall market expansion [1][5] - The overall stability in the commodity market is supported by the implementation of "anti-involution" policies and increased macroeconomic counter-cyclical adjustment measures [5][7] - Despite the positive trends, global commodity price volatility and external uncertainties remain significant challenges for certain industries [1][5] Commodity Price Index Summary - The CBPI for July 2025 is reported at 111.4 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [3][6] - The black metal price index rebounded to 77.9 points, up 1.7% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous price index rose to 130.1 points, up 1.1% month-on-month [3][7] - The energy price index decreased to 96.7 points, down 0.6% month-on-month, and the chemical price index fell to 102.9 points, down 1.4% month-on-month [3][8] Sector-Specific Insights - In July, 32 out of 50 monitored commodities saw price increases, with lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and coking coal rising by 10.2%, 9.8%, and 9.6% respectively [5][6] - The chemical sector experienced a decline, with methanol and cement prices dropping by 5% and 4.8% respectively, attributed to supply-demand imbalances and increased inventories [8][9] - The agricultural price index slightly decreased to 97.9 points, down 0.2% month-on-month, influenced by high temperatures and lower-than-expected summer consumption [8][9] Market Dynamics - The rebound in black metal prices is driven by improved market confidence and rising prices of raw materials like coking coal and coke [6][7] - The energy sector's decline is linked to seasonal production slowdowns and weaker downstream demand [7][8] - The mineral price index fell to 71.7 points, down 2.7% month-on-month, due to weak downstream demand and increased inventory pressures [9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The black - series commodity futures basically stabilized on August 4. The futures market decline recently cooled the previous positive sentiment, but the spot coal price remained firm due to good sales and pre - orders. The coking coal demand was strong with low inventory. The coke market was in a tight - balance state with positive sentiment and upward price momentum [1]. - After the fourth round of price increase for coke, the profit of coke enterprises continued to shrink, but the inventory decreased, and the demand from steel mills was rigid, so the price had the power to run steadily and strongly [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Overview - On August 4, the closing price of rebar was 3204 yuan/ton, down 0.28%; the hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3417 yuan/ton, up 0.26%; the iron ore contract closed at 790.5 yuan/ton; the double - coking futures showed a V - shaped trend [1]. Market Analysis - **Coking Coal**: The recent futures market decline cooled the sentiment, and some traders sold to realize profits. However, coal mines had good sales and pre - orders, so the pit - mouth coal price remained firm. The coking coal demand was strong supported by high -开工 rate of downstream coke enterprises and high iron - water output. The inventory was low, with upstream inventory decreasing and downstream increasing. Last week, the inventory of 523 sample mines decreased by 30.2 tons to 248.3 tons (the lowest since March 2024), the inventory of coal - washing plants decreased by 9.23 tons to 166.38 tons (the lowest in a year), the port inventory decreased by 3.53% to 493.94 tons, and the inventory of independent coke enterprises and steel mills increased slightly to 992.73 tons and 803.79 tons respectively (both at the highest in nearly half a year). The market had a fear of high prices, and the proportion of unsold lots increased by 4.5% week - on - week, but the overall transaction price still trended upward [1]. - **Coke**: After the fourth round of price increase, the profit of coke enterprises continued to shrink, with the profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants increasing only slightly by 9 yuan to - 45 yuan/ton. Some coking enterprises cut production due to losses, affecting the daily output. The supply was tight. With the high daily iron - water output of steel mills, the procurement enthusiasm of steel mills and the intermediate trading links was high, and the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased by 8.11% to 73.62 tons (the lowest in 9 months). The cost support was significantly enhanced, and the market sentiment was positive. On August 3, some mainstream steel mills in the Hebei market planned to increase the price of wet coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on August 4, 2025 [1]. Investment Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - **Rebar**: Investors are advised to adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - **Double - Coking**: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]. Summary The double - coking futures prices declined due to market sentiment fluctuations, but the spot market had low inventory and strong demand, so there was still price support [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's export of angle steel and section steel has significantly increased in May 2025, with a total export volume of 770,000 tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 59.8% [1] - The export value for the same period reached 419 million USD, which is a year-on-year increase of 37.2% [1] - The data is sourced from China Customs and organized by Zhiyan Consulting, indicating a robust performance in the steel export sector [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The futures market sentiment has not stabilized yet, and the spot market mostly follows the fluctuations of futures prices. The market is expected to return to the industrial fundamentals after the hot money is squeezed out. Attention should be paid to the impact of pre - parade production cuts and the release of spot from unwound basis trading positions on the market. [2] - The "anti - involution" trading in coking coal and coke has reversed. Due to regulatory tightening and macro - events, there is a risk of further decline in the market, and it is recommended to be bearish on the approaching - delivery 00 contracts and take profit on previous basis trading positions. [3] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have fluctuated sharply due to the wavering policy expectations. Although the supply and demand have some resilience, the inventory pressure remains high. [5] - The iron ore sector has fluctuated sharply after the meetings. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, but the 01 contract still has support below and may rise after adjustment. [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: On August 1st, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3257.00 yuan/ton, down 45.00 yuan (-1.36%); HC2601 at 3403.00 yuan/ton, down 29.00 yuan (-0.84%); J2601 at 1624.00 yuan/ton, down 69.00 yuan (-4.08%); JM2605 at 7000 yuan/ton. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3203.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan (-1.23%); HC2510 at 3401.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan (-0.58%); J2509 at 1585.00 yuan/ton, down 49.00 yuan (-3.00%); JM2601 at 1092.50 yuan/ton, up 11.50 yuan (21.06%). [1] - **Cross - month Spreads**: On August 1st, RB2510 - 2601 was - 54.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan; HC2510 - 2601 was - 2.00 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan; 12509 - 2601 was 26.00 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; J2509 - 2601 was - 39.00 yuan/ton, up 14.50 yuan; JM2601 - 2605 was - 27.50 yuan/ton, up 62.00 yuan. [1] - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits**: On August 1st, the coil - to - rebar spread was 198.00 yuan/ton, up 13.00 yuan; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.09, down 0.02; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.45, down 0.08; the rebar paper profit was 60.80 yuan/ton, down 0.60 yuan; the coking paper profit was 131.98 yuan/ton, down 78.51 yuan. [1] Steel - The futures market sentiment has not stabilized. The spot market follows the futures price fluctuations. The macro - level policy expectations have a negative impact on prices, and the market is expected to return to the industrial fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the impact of the release of unwound basis trading positions on the spot market and the electric - arc furnace valley - electricity cost support. [2] Coking Coal and Coke - The "anti - involution" trading has reversed. The fifth round of coke price increase is still possible but the steel - coke game has intensified. The futures prices have fallen sharply due to regulatory tightening and macro - events. It is recommended to be bearish on the approaching - delivery 00 contracts and take profit on previous basis trading positions. [3] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The prices have fluctuated sharply due to the wavering policy expectations. The supply and demand have some resilience, but the inventory pressure remains high. [5] Iron Ore - The sector has fluctuated sharply after the meetings. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, but the 01 contract still has support below and may rise after adjustment. [6]

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a general upward trend in prices, with 36 products experiencing price increases, 8 products seeing declines, and 6 remaining stable in late July 2025 compared to mid-July 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Price Changes Overview - In the black metal category, notable price increases include rebar (up 143.5 yuan, 4.5%) and hot-rolled ordinary plates (up 175.2 yuan, 5.3%) [3]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, electrolytic copper rose by 1161.1 yuan (1.5%), while lead ingot decreased by 53.1 yuan (-0.3%) [3]. - Chemical products showed mixed results, with sulfuric acid increasing by 10.2 yuan (1.5%) and styrene decreasing by 120.9 yuan (-1.6%) [3]. Group 2: Specific Product Price Movements - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas prices remained stable, while gasoline (95) increased by 20.7 yuan (0.2%) [4]. - Coal prices varied, with coking coal rising significantly by 225.0 yuan (19.6%) and anthracite coal decreasing by 29.6 yuan (-3.4%) [4]. - In the agricultural products category, cotton prices increased by 132.1 yuan (0.9%), while the price of live pigs fell by 0.3 yuan (-2.1%) [4]. Group 3: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring encompasses a wide range of products across 31 provinces, involving over 2000 wholesalers and dealers [8][9]. - The methodology includes on-site price collection, phone inquiries, and electronic communications to ensure accurate data [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a general upward trend, with 36 products experiencing price increases, while 8 saw declines, and 6 remained stable in late July 2025 compared to mid-July 2025 [1]. Price Changes Summary 1. Black Metals - Rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) increased by 143.5 CNY to 3304.1 CNY, a rise of 4.5% - Wire rod (Φ8-10mm, HPB300) rose by 141.5 CNY to 3469.0 CNY, an increase of 4.3% - Ordinary medium plate (20mm, Q235) increased by 123.6 CNY to 3526.3 CNY, a rise of 3.6% - Hot-rolled ordinary plate (4.75-11.5mm, Q235) increased by 175.2 CNY to 3474.3 CNY, a rise of 5.3% [3]. 2. Non-ferrous Metals - Electrolytic copper (1) rose by 1161.1 CNY to 79474.4 CNY, an increase of 1.5% - Aluminum ingot (A00) increased by 175.8 CNY to 20767.5 CNY, a rise of 0.9% - Lead ingot (1) decreased by 53.1 CNY to 16734.4 CNY, a decline of 0.3% - Zinc ingot (0) increased by 528.0 CNY to 22746.3 CNY, a rise of 2.4% [3]. 3. Chemical Products - Sulfuric acid (98%) increased by 10.2 CNY to 704.3 CNY, a rise of 1.5% - Caustic soda (liquid, 32%) decreased by 0.8 CNY to 871.7 CNY, a decline of 0.1% - Methanol (first grade) increased by 34.1 CNY to 2255.5 CNY, a rise of 1.5% - Polyvinyl chloride (SG5) increased by 197.7 CNY to 5056.7 CNY, a rise of 4.1% [3]. 4. Oil and Natural Gas - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) decreased by 1.8 CNY to 4323.7 CNY, remaining stable - Gasoline (95 National VI) increased by 20.7 CNY to 8590.4 CNY, a rise of 0.2% - Diesel (0 National VI) decreased by 2.1 CNY to 7182.9 CNY, remaining stable [3]. 5. Coal - Anthracite (washed lump) decreased by 29.6 CNY to 835.8 CNY, a decline of 3.4% - Ordinary mixed coal (4500 kcal) increased by 16.7 CNY to 518.1 CNY, a rise of 3.3% - Coking coal (main coking coal) increased by 225.0 CNY to 1375.0 CNY, a rise of 19.6% [3]. 6. Non-metallic Building Materials - Ordinary Portland cement (P.O 42.5 bagged) decreased by 6.7 CNY to 355.7 CNY, a decline of 1.8% - Float glass (4.8/5mm) increased by 56.5 CNY to 1268.9 CNY, a rise of 4.7% [3]. 7. Agricultural Products - Rice (glutinous rice) decreased by 1.7 CNY to 4042.3 CNY, remaining stable - Wheat (national standard grade three) remained stable at 2422.9 CNY [4]. 8. Agricultural Production Materials - Urea (medium and small particles) decreased by 10.6 CNY to 1811.8 CNY, a decline of 0.6% - Compound fertilizer (sulfur potassium compound fertilizer) increased by 28.5 CNY to 3177.9 CNY, a rise of 0.9% [4]. 9. Forest Products - Natural rubber (standard rubber SCRWF) increased by 548.0 CNY to 14906.3 CNY, a rise of 3.8% - Pulp (imported needle pulp) increased by 32.4 CNY to 5869.0 CNY, a rise of 0.6% [4].