直奔主题， 买哪里的房子最保值？ 究竟买哪里的房子最保值？哪些城市的房价会再创新高？ 网上的很多看法，情绪大于逻辑，似是而非，缺少专业的分析。 这些年，出版了三本专著《房地产周期》《全球房地产》《房地产大趋势》，研究了全球几十个国 家的房地产百年历史， 总结出了房价保值增值的核心秘密。 首先，什么是保值？ 我们不能像网上的有些言论凭感觉，咱们要靠科学，为此我搜集了大量官方 统计数据，进行"保值率"测算，也就是用最新的二手房均价，与 2017 年以来该城市的二手房价峰值， 进行相比计算。 文 泽平宏观团队 现在社会上对房地产的看法分歧很大，有人说 2026 年买房就是高位站岗，还有人说三四线房子白 送都不要，但北上广深可以闭眼买。 做起来很复杂，花了三个多月时间，咱们直接看结论。 我们发现，全国 36 个重点城市，过去十年 深圳的房地产保值率排第一，上海、成都位列前三，北京、杭州也冲进前五，他们的保值率都超过 80% 。反观有些三四线城市，比如鹤岗、廊坊，保值率早就跌破 60% ，当年买的房子现在打半价都很 难出手。 这说明什么？后房地产时代，不是所有房子都能保值，能穿越周期的硬通货只是少数。 有人会问： " ...

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing a complex situation as it approaches the Spring Festival holiday, with previous hot sectors like optical modules, non-ferrous metals, and AI tech stocks in the US showing varying degrees of correction [1] - The Guangfa Fund advisory team suggests that after a significant rise in January, the market is becoming more rational, with a focus on "going overseas + technology" themes, emphasizing cyclical industries supported by global demand and sectors intersecting AI and overseas markets [1][3] Industry Performance - As of February 1, approximately 55% of listed companies in A-shares have disclosed their earnings forecasts for 2025, indicating an overall recovery in profitability, although significant industry divergence is noted, with non-bank financials and non-ferrous metals performing particularly well [1] - The median earnings growth forecast for all A-shares in 2025 is 18%, with a quarterly median growth forecast of 11% for Q4 2025. However, historical trends suggest that this data may decline after all companies complete their earnings disclosures [1] Positive Earnings Forecasts - The proportion of positive earnings forecasts varies significantly across industries, with non-bank financials at 100%, non-ferrous metals at 65%, and automotive and beauty care sectors exceeding 50%. In contrast, industries like coal, real estate, and light manufacturing have positive forecast ratios below 20%, indicating lower industry sentiment [2] - High earnings growth industries for 2025 are primarily in three areas: those directly boosted by market or price factors (e.g., non-bank financials and non-ferrous metals), those benefiting from AI-driven demand (e.g., machinery, electronics, computing, and communications), and those supported by overseas market demand (e.g., machinery, media, and batteries) [2] Investment Strategy - The Guangfa Fund advisory team recommends that investors maintain a balanced allocation strategy to mitigate risks and smooth portfolio volatility, especially in a market characterized by significant industry divergence [3] - The company emphasizes its comprehensive asset management capabilities, offering a full range of products to meet diverse investment needs across different economic cycles and market environments, suggesting that investors consider fund advisory combinations for a more manageable investment experience [3]

来源：大伟看楼市 2026年开年以来，国家层面密集推出民生惠企政策组合拳，涵盖消费减负、住房安居等多个核心领域， 其中最受亿万房贷家庭关注的，莫过于即将全面推进的1%房贷贴息政策。不同于直接发放现金的普惠 模式，这项政策以财政精准补息的方式，为房贷族直接降低还款成本，从地方试点的实践效果来看，已 实现"财政补息差、银行扩投放、购房者享红利"的三方共赢。随着试点范围持续扩围，全国房贷族即将 迎来月供减负的实质性利好，这场楼市福利背后，既是民生保障的温度，也是房地产市场平稳健康发展 的信号，值得每一位房贷族深入解读、精准把握。 需要注意的是，1%房贷贴息政策虽为普惠福利，但并非所有房贷族都能享受，政策始终坚持"精准减 负"原则，设置了明确的适用条件和门槛，避免资金浪费。结合试点经验和即将出台的全国政策导向， 预计适用人群主要覆盖三类群体：一是2025年9月1日至2026年8月31日期间放款的新购首套商业贷款家 庭，这是政策重点支持的对象；二是符合条件的商转公贷款用户，需满足公积金连续缴存满6个月、无 房贷逾期记录等要求；三是购房后1年内办理装修贷款的家庭，需提供真实装修合同等证明材料。同 时，政策也明确了几类排除 ...

中梁控股(02772)发布公告，2026年1月，集团合约销售(包括合营企业及联营公司的合约销售)金额约为 人民币8.0亿元，同比下降27.3%;合约销售面积约为8.2万平方米，合约销售均价约为人民币9700元╱平 方米。 ...

证券日报网讯 2月6日，宁波富达发布公告称，公司2025年中期利润分配方案为A股每股派0.07元（含 税），股权登记日为2026年2月12日，除权除息及红利发放日均为2026年2月13日。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

最近很多人问我：2026年，还能投资新加坡房产吗？ 我的答案很明确：能，但别盲目。 很多人投资新加坡房产，只盯着乌节路、滨海湾这些核心区，却忽略了一个真相：核心区门槛高（优质零售租金已达每平方英 尺38.35新元），而新兴规划区的红利更具性价比。 刘润一直说，投资要"找对势能"。新加坡房产的势能，就在这两个方向：一是依托基建崛起的西部裕廊湖区、登加新镇；二是 南部濒水区的滨海豪宅带。另外，2025年组屋新政落地，成熟市镇与新兴区价差缩小，首购族可关注成熟市镇BTO项目，长期 投资者则可布局巴耶利峇空军基地重建区的潜力盘。 还要记住一个关键数据：新加坡私宅平均租金收益率保持在3%-4%，一套1000万人民币的两居室，月租金约合人民币2.4万-3.0 万，而且房产是实得面积、自带精装，实际单价并不比国内一线城市高多少，租金回报的稳定性，也是核心吸引力之一。 第三个逻辑：避坑比赚钱更重要，这3个风险一定要避开。 很多人栽跟头，不是选筹错了，而是忽略了"隐性成本"和"政策红线"。 新加坡房产从来不是"闭眼买就赚"的投机游戏，它的红利，只留给看透底层逻辑、算清收益账的人。尤其是2025年三季度数据 显示，新加坡房地产投 ...

Market Overview - In January 2026, global stock markets experienced a broad rally, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets. Chinese stocks performed moderately, while US stocks lagged behind [5][11] - The cyclical sector led the market, driven by rising commodity prices, particularly in energy and materials, while the financial sector underperformed [5][11] Core Themes - February marks a traditional bullish window for A-shares, with historical data showing a 76% probability of gains and an average increase of 3.4% [17] - Regulatory measures are limiting speculative trading, directing funds towards sectors with solid fundamentals. The focus is on core sectors with improving profitability, particularly in cyclical and technology manufacturing [21][22] A-share Market and Structural Analysis - The A-share market is expected to transition into a "slow bull" market, driven by profit improvement rather than valuation expansion. The liquidity environment remains relatively loose, supporting market growth [28][31] - The basic fundamentals are expected to strengthen, with corporate profits likely to improve due to policies aimed at reducing competition and stabilizing prices [28][30] Sector Focus - The main sector themes are price increases and technology manufacturing, with a focus on performance realization rather than speculative trends. The technology manufacturing sector is benefiting from the integration of AI and overseas expansion [36][38] - The cyclical sector, particularly non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals, is expected to see significant profit recovery due to rising commodity prices [38] Growth and Value Dynamics - The growth-oriented ChiNext index is projected to outperform the value-oriented CSI 300 index, although the margin of outperformance is narrowing [47] - The proportion of companies with positive earnings forecasts is slightly improving, indicating a potential recovery in corporate profitability [22] Market Style and Trends - Small-cap stocks are expected to perform strongly in February, benefiting from a favorable environment due to limited IPOs and a focus on earnings reports [57][63] - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to continue its slow bull trend, supported by liquidity and the ongoing AI industry wave [64][65] US Market Outlook - The US market is consolidating its fundamentals, preparing for the next upward movement, with corporate earnings showing strong growth across various sectors [70] - A balanced investment strategy is recommended, maintaining core positions in technology while diversifying into cyclical sectors to capture potential excess returns [70]

Core Viewpoint - The Yancheng Housing Provident Fund Management Committee has announced an optimization and adjustment of housing provident fund policies to support housing consumption and meet the housing needs of employees, aiming to promote the stable and healthy development of the local real estate market [12][23]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The recognition criteria for first-time housing provident fund loans have been relaxed, allowing individuals and their spouses without outstanding loans to apply for loans under the first-time homebuyer policy [1][13]. - The definition of family members eligible for joint home purchases has been expanded to include the employee, spouse, both parents, children, and their spouses, allowing for greater access to loan amounts and fund withdrawals [3][15]. - The maximum loan amounts for families with multiple children have been increased, with an additional 300,000 yuan for families with two children and 600,000 yuan for families with three or more children [5][30]. Group 2: Support for Specific Groups - The maximum loan amount for active-duty and retired military personnel has been increased by 50%, enhancing support for these groups in purchasing homes [7][19]. - The monthly withdrawal limits for housing provident funds to pay rent have been raised, with personal limits in urban areas increasing from 800 yuan to 1,200 yuan and family limits from 1,600 yuan to 2,000 yuan [8][20]. - The policy now allows for the withdrawal of housing provident funds to pay property management fees, with a limit of 3,000 yuan per year for individuals and 6,000 yuan for families [10][45]. Group 3: Implementation Timeline - Policies regarding the relaxation of loan recognition, family member definitions, and increased loan limits for multiple children and military personnel will take effect immediately upon the announcement [11][46]. - The policies related to rent payment and property fee withdrawals will be implemented starting January 1, 2026 [11][56].

智通财经APP讯，景瑞控股(01862)发布公告，该公司收到联交所日期为2026年2月2日的信函，当中载列 有关恢复买卖该公司股份的复牌指引。根据复牌指引，该公司须：(i)针对该公司的清盘令已被撤回或被 解除，且任何清盘人的委任已获解除;(ii)证明该公司遵守上市规则第13.24条的规定;(iii)重新遵守上市规 则第3.10及3.21条条的规定;(iv)向市场公布所有重要资讯，以供该公司股东及其他投资者评估该公司的 状况。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Greenland Hong Kong (00337.HK) reported a contract sales figure of approximately RMB 508 million for January 2026, with a total contracted gross floor area sold of about 52,100 square meters [1] Group 1 - The contract sales for January 2026 amounted to approximately RMB 508 million [1] - The total contracted gross floor area sold was around 52,100 square meters [1]