上证50指数下跌0.28%，对应上证50指数期权日成交量和持仓量分别为2.21万张和8.21万张，成交量PCR 值和持仓量PCR值分别为64.91%和63.96%，日内交易看跌期权比例小幅抬升。HO看跌期权在行权价 3000点附近持仓极高，短期上证50指数在该区域预计有较强支撑。3月平值隐波均值为15.4%，与30日 历史波动率相比大小相当，期权估值整体不高，后期隐波回落空间亦有限。 综合而言，临近春节长假，标的指数以震荡行情为主。期权卖方应尽量避免持仓过节，买方亦应严控仓 位，注意防范尾部风险；股指期货多单投资者可考虑适当买入一定虚值看跌期权，以防范长假期间市场 的不确定风险。 （文章来源：期货日报） 周四，沪深两市交投平淡。期权标的指数方面，科创50、创业板指、中证500和中证1000指数均有0.9% 至1.8%不等的涨幅，上证50和沪深300指数则基本处于窄幅震荡之中。 中证1000指数上涨0.91%，对应中证1000指数期权日成交量和持仓量分别为25.26万张和34.93万张，成 交量PCR值78.51%，持仓量PCR值95.91%，环比上涨3个百分点，MO看涨、看跌期权出现不同程度的 减仓。持仓分布 ...

成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：春节下游走弱 市场偏谨慎 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 铝锭 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 原材料： 冯艳成 有色金属：于梦雪 基本面来看,当前国产铝土矿货源较为充足，短期价格持稳 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - There is no industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal (M2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 2780 and 2840. Influenced by the upward trend of US soybeans, spot price premium, and a mix of news, it may maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. The market is affected by factors like China's soybean procurement and South American weather [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2605)**: It is predicted to fluctuate between 4620 and 4740. Supported by the upward movement of US soybeans and strong domestic spot prices and demand, but restricted by factors such as the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans after the Spring Festival, there is a risk of a pull - back after a rise [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - There is no specific content for daily hints in the report. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather are uncertain. The US market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and subsequent China - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in Q1. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained high in January. With relatively normal weather for soybean planting and growth in South America, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound oscillation in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic hog farming profits has led to low expectations for hog replenishment. The demand for soybean meal remained strong in January, supporting the price of soybean meal. Affected by the upward trend of US soybeans and the recovery of soybean meal demand, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains high. There is still a possibility of speculation on US soybean产区 weather, and influenced by the preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term, awaiting the clarification of US soybean production and subsequent China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - growing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in January; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market is focused on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: Brazil is expected to have a bumper soybean harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market is focused on the impact of US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From February 4th to 12th, the transaction average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3117 - 3151 yuan, and the transaction volume decreased from 26.17 million tons to 1.3 million tons. The transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2430 - 2450 yuan, and the transaction volume was mostly 0, with a maximum of 3 million tons on February 6th. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually widened from 667 yuan to 701 yuan [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From February 5th to 12th, the futures prices of soybeans (including bean 1 and bean 2) and soybean meal generally showed an upward trend, and the spot prices also had corresponding changes [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From February 3rd to 12th, the number of bean 1 warehouse receipts remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease on February 6th; the number of bean 2 warehouse receipts appeared on February 5th and then decreased; the number of soybean meal warehouse receipts increased on February 4th and then remained relatively stable [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide data on the supply - demand balance of global and domestic soybeans from 2016 to 2025, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, reflecting the long - term supply - demand situation of soybeans [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: Include the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24, 2024/25, 2025/26), the United States (2024), and Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26), showing the development of soybean production in different regions [34][39][42]. - **USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months**: Provide data on planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from July 2025 to February 2026 [44]. 3.5 Positioning Data - There is no specific content for positioning data in the report. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - **Soybean Meal Market**: Soybean meal futures have returned to an oscillation, while the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium remains at a relatively high level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has returned to a high level, and the soybean meal production in December increased year - on - year. The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills continue to decline, indicating a weakening of stocking demand. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has narrowed, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has shown slight fluctuations [23][25][27][29]. - **Imported Soybean and Hog Market**: The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans has entered a low level at the beginning of the year and has recently decreased year - on - year. The soybean inventory of oil mills continues to decline, while the soybean meal inventory has rebounded from a low level. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has oscillated downward following US soybeans, and the profit on the futures market has shown slight fluctuations. The hog inventory has slightly increased year - on - year, while the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly declined month - on - month. The hog price has shown slight fluctuations recently, while the piglet price has slightly rebounded. The proportion of large hogs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of hogs has continued to rise. Domestic hog farming has achieved a small profit, and the pig - to - grain ratio and feed - to - meat ratio have fallen to a low level [45][47][54][56][62][64].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate within a range this week as the holiday approaches. The inland market is entering the pre - holiday rest period, with demand shrinking and supply remaining sufficient. The port market is expected to oscillate at the bottom before the festival, and it is recommended to reduce risk exposure. The price of MA2605 is expected to fluctuate between 2210 - 2270 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 suggest that the inland methanol market is in a pre - holiday rest period. Demand from traditional downstream devices like formaldehyde is decreasing, and supply is sufficient with low inventory in some enterprises. The port market has experienced significant price fluctuations and is now in a range - bound state. The expected price range for MA2605 this week is 2210 - 2270 [5]. - The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 2220 yuan/ton, with a 05 - contract basis of - 11, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [5]. - As of February 12, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 94.27 tons, a decrease of 1.87 tons from the previous period. The total available methanol in coastal areas is 46.08 tons, a decrease of 0.31 tons [5]. - The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is below the average [5]. - The main positions are net short, with short positions increasing [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some devices are shut down or operating at reduced capacity; Iranian methanol production is at a low level, and imports in February are expected to shrink; previous inventory in production areas is low, and some enterprises are even restricting sales; some downstream users are still stocking up before the festival [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, with no supply shortage; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream formaldehyde production is shutting down, weakening demand for raw materials; the main olefin devices at ports are shut down, significantly weakening local demand; most downstream users have completed pre - holiday stocking, leading to a short - term decline in demand [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 682 yuan/ton, and the price of methanol in various regions has minor changes. The futures closing price is 2231 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts are 8032, an increase of 450, and the effective forecasts are 0, a decrease of 450 [8]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis is - 21 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous day. The import spread is 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in different regions have also decreased to varying degrees [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory in East China ports is 56.03 tons, a decrease of 0.33 tons, and the inventory in South China ports is 38.24 tons, a decrease of 1.54 tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have reduced production, including those in Shaanxi, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, and other regions. The maintenance time and loss vary by enterprise [55]. - **Foreign Methanol Plants**: In Iran, some plants are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level. In other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States, the operation status of methanol plants varies [56]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants are under maintenance, such as the Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy plant, while others are operating stably or at a low load [57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that the short - term oil price will fluctuate weakly. The possibility of military actions disrupting supply in the near term has decreased due to Trump's statement on the Iran issue. The IEA's prediction of a large - scale annual average supply surplus in 2026 also weighs on the oil price. The domestic market is slightly weaker than the international market, and the market is waiting for Spring Festival consumption and travel data. The SC2604 contract is expected to trade in the range of 455 - 465, and there are long - term opportunities to short at high levels [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Iran in the next month, and the US Treasury will issue more licenses to relax sanctions on Venezuela's energy sector. The IEA has lowered the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 due to high oil prices, which is bearish. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. US API and EIA inventories increased significantly in the week ending February 6, and Cushing inventories also increased, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is near the average, which is neutral. As of February 3, the long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil increased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term oil prices will fluctuate weakly. The SC2604 contract will trade in the 455 - 465 range, and there are long - term opportunities to short at high levels [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Ukraine - Russia Peace Talks**: Ukrainian President Zelensky said that the US needs to put more pressure on Russia if it wants the conflict to end in summer. Russia is still considering whether to participate in the proposed peace talks in Miami, and the previous two rounds of talks in Abu Dhabi did not yield results [5]. - **US - Iran Relations**: Trump said the US must reach an agreement with Iran, otherwise the situation will be "very serious". He is willing to negotiate for as long as necessary and warned of a possible rapid development in the situation in the next month [5]. - **IEA Monthly Report**: The forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2026 has been lowered to 850,000 barrels per day from 930,000 barrels per day. The global oil supply in 2026 will exceed demand by 3.73 million barrels per day, up from 3.69 million barrels per day in the previous report [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Sanctions on Russia and the tense situation in Iran [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The IEA's concern about oil supply surplus and the alleviation of supply problems in some oil - producing countries [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term focus on geopolitical factors, and long - term risk of oversupply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil have changed, with Brent and WTI down by 2.71% and 3.16% respectively, SC up by 1.07%, and Oman up by 0.82% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of various types of crude oil in the spot market have also changed. The price of WTI dropped by 100%, while the prices of other types of crude oil had relatively small changes [9]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 13.4 million barrels in the week ending February 6, and EIA inventory increased by 8.53 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 793,000 barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 1.071 million barrels. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels as of February 12 [3]. 3.5 Positioning Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of February 3, the net long position increased by 27,583 to 124,565 [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of February 3, the net long position increased by 31,332 to 278,249 [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market shows that prices are in a state of shock consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the supply is stable. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand is improving. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic of the market revolves around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals. There are also some factors affecting the market, with the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remaining around 4%, indicating tight supply, while the high historical price of oil and fat, continuous accumulation of domestic oil and fat inventory, weak macro - economy, and high expected production of relevant oils and fats are the negative factors [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - **Soybean - related supply**: - On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a decrease of 60000 tons from the previous period and an increase of 14.7% year - on - year [2] - Information on soybean meal inventory is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [8] - Information on oil - mill soybean crushing is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [10] - **Palm oil supply**: - In December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. As of January, the export data of Malaysian palm oil increased by 29% month - on - month. On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous value and an increase of 46% year - on - year [2][3][4] - **Rapeseed - related supply**: - On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons from the previous value and a decrease of 44% year - on - year [4] - Information on rapeseed inventory is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [21] - **Total domestic oil and fat supply**: Information on total domestic oil and fat inventory is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [23] Demand - **Soybean - related demand**: - Information on the apparent consumption of soybean oil is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [12] - Information on the apparent consumption of soybean meal is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [14] Price Forecast - Soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2] - Palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9000 [3] - Rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8900 - 9300 [4]

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，国内供应即将到达天花板，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏 观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货23350，基差-260，贴水期货，偏空。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周涨28369吨至245140吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，铝价震荡运行，假期来临控制仓位 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：AI恐慌升级，美股大跌疑似引发金属的算法卖盘，金价回落；美国三大 股指全线收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收 益率跌7.04个基点报4.100%；美元指数跌0.02%报96.91，离岸人民币对美元升值报 6.899；COMEX黄金期货跌3.08%报4941.4美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1126.12，现货1122.82，基差-3.3，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单105072千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏 ...

记者丨金珊 编辑丨刘雪莹 （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） SFC 出品丨21财经客户端 21世纪经济报道 日韩股市下挫，软银大跌7% 万亿巨头疑似售假，消费者直呼塌房 21君荐读 2月13日，黄金白银经历昨 夜闪崩后继续 低开，黄金一度下探失守4900美元关口，随后盘中 急速反弹翻红，截至北京时间10:05左右，COMEX黄金期货涨超1%，重回5000美元/盎司，现 货黄金涨逼近5000美元/盎司，现货白银站上76美元/盎司。国内商品期货早盘方面，沪银跌超 7%，沪金跌超1%。 华源期货近日表示，美联储当前或仍具备较大政策空间，本轮降息周期的时间或也被通胀频 繁的扰动拉长，增加了黄金的做多窗口期。12月会议利率点阵图中值与9月份完全一致，预计 2026、2027年大概率各降息一次。华源期货认为，无论是宽松预期还是通胀上行，或都有利 于支撑黄金价格的上涨。 2月13日， 深圳市地方金融管理局等10部门发布进一步规范黄金市场经营行为的公开提示。其 中提到，企业不得违规开展黄金预定价交易、杠杆交易、延期交易等非法黄金交易活动，如 通过微信群或小程序、APP、网站等互联网平台， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2026年2月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 6、预期：外盘创出新低，郑糖近期走势相对偏强。春节长假即将到来，节前规避风险，建议减持 仓位。短期05合约预计在5200-5300区间震荡。 白糖： 2、基差：柳州现货5360，基差106（05合约），升水期货；中性。 3、库存：截至10月底25/26榨季工业库存79.14万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：20日均线走平，k线在20日均线上方，偏多。 利多：26/27年度巴西糖产量可能下降。糖浆关税增加。 美国可乐改变配方使用蔗糖。 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：Covrig Analytics:26/27年度全球糖过剩预计缩减至140万吨，低于 ...