1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Under the superposition of multiple positive factors, the methanol market is expected to maintain a strong short - term operation. Inland methanol is expected to remain firm, and the port market is expected to continue to be strong this week. The current methanol has shown a leading trend in the chemical market. Future attention should be paid to whether the US will withdraw troops from the Middle East and the sustainability of MTO profits. Once there are signs of the end of the war, the driving logic will change rapidly. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 3060 - 3350 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 are positive in the short - term. The base - difference shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory has decreased, which is bearish. The price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 3060 - 3350 [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Some devices have stopped or reduced their loads, such as Inner Mongolia Heima and Shanxi Zhongxin. - The methanol production in Iran is at a low level, and the methanol imports in February are expected to continue to shrink. - The methanol factories in the production areas have actively reduced their inventories, and the current inventory is low, with some enterprises even limiting sales. - Some downstream users continue to stock up before the Spring Festival [6]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - The domestic methanol production is at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply. - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries such as formaldehyde gradually stop production for holidays, weakening the demand for raw materials. - The main olefin devices at the port have stopped, and the local demand has weakened significantly. - Most downstream users have completed their pre - holiday stockpiling, and the phased demand has weakened [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price Data - In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region remained unchanged at 687 yuan/ton, and the price of methanol in various regions showed different changes. For example, the price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased from 3145 yuan/ton to 3050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract decreased from 3182 yuan/ton to 3132 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [8]. - The weekly changes in domestic methanol spot prices showed that the prices in Jiangsu, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian increased by 7.96%, 4.27%, 7.18%, and 6.84% respectively, while the price in Shandong remained unchanged [9]. - The weekly changes in methanol futures prices increased by 11.66%, and the basis changed from - 37 yuan/ton to - 82 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3.2 Production Profit Data - The weekly profit of coal - based methanol production increased from 345 yuan/ton to 455 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton. The profit of natural - gas - based methanol production remained at - 40 yuan/ton. The profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol production decreased from 643 yuan/ton to 601 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton [21]. 3.3.3 Production Capacity Utilization Data - The national weighted average production capacity utilization rate of methanol decreased from 78.71% to 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81 percentage points. The production capacity utilization rate in the northwest region decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55 percentage points [8]. 3.3.4 Inventory Data - As of March 19, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in the ports of East and South China was 82.67 tons, a decrease of 5.39 tons compared with the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in the coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) decreased by 5.43 tons to 44.15 tons [5]. - The inventory in the East China port decreased from 54.80 tons to 51.07 tons, a decrease of 3.73 tons, and the inventory in the South China port decreased from 33.26 tons to 31.60 tons, a decrease of 1.66 tons [8]. 3.3.5 External Market Price and Spread Data - The CFR price of methanol in China decreased from 411 US dollars/ton to 382 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 29 US dollars/ton. The CFR price of methanol in Southeast Asia increased from 552 US dollars/ton to 557 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The spread between China and Southeast Asia decreased from - 141 US dollars/ton to - 175 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 34 US dollars/ton [8]. - The import cost of methanol decreased from 3459 yuan/ton to 3219 yuan/ton, a decrease of 241 yuan/ton. The import spread decreased from 277 yuan/ton to 8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 191 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3.6 Downstream Product Data - The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether remained unchanged, while the price of acetic acid increased from 3200 yuan/ton to 3300 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.13% [29]. - The production profit of formaldehyde decreased from - 231 yuan/ton to - 276 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton, and the production capacity utilization rate increased slightly from 30.97% to 30.98%. The production profit of dimethyl ether decreased from 227 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 142 yuan/ton, and the production capacity utilization rate increased from 8.34% to 9.79%. The production profit of acetic acid decreased from 446 yuan/ton to 423 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton, and the production capacity utilization rate decreased from 73.61% to 72.32% [33][36][41]. - The production profit of MTO decreased from - 3040 yuan/ton to - 3760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 720 yuan/ton, and the production capacity utilization rate decreased from 86.45% to 84.18% [46]. 3.4 Maintenance Status 3.4.1 Domestic Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in the process of maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc. The maintenance time and loss vary by enterprise [55]. 3.4.2 Overseas Device Operation - The operation status of overseas methanol production devices varies. Some Iranian devices are in the process of restarting, and some devices in other countries are operating normally or at a low level [56]. 3.4.3 Olefin Device Operation - The operation status of domestic olefin devices also varies. Some devices are in normal operation, some are in maintenance, and some have low loads [57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The closing price of the ag2606 contract yesterday was 17,625 yuan, a decrease of 1,176 yuan or 6.25% from the previous day. The trading volume was 1,134,240 lots, an increase of 360,130 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 219,146 lots, a decrease of 7,961 lots from the previous day. The implied volatility of AG (silver options) fluctuated above the mean of 0.4618. The AG options open interest PCR was reported at 0.784, at the 0.82% level in the past year. The pressure level of the AG options underlying was 37,600, and the support level was 15,000 [7]. - The closing price of the au2604 contract yesterday was 1,039.22 yuan, a decrease of 41.44 yuan or 3.83% from the previous day. The trading volume was 343,231 lots, an increase of 98,663 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 68,993 lots, a decrease of 9,544 lots from the previous day. The implied volatility of AU (gold options) fluctuated above the mean of 0.2687. The AU options open interest PCR was reported at 0.6163, at the 15.10% level in the past year. The pressure level of the AU options underlying was 1,200, and the support level was 1,000 [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Silver Options - **3.1.1标的期货市场数据** - The closing price of the ag2606 contract was 17,625 yuan, with a decrease of 1,176 yuan or 6.25%. The trading volume was 1,134,240 lots, an increase of 360,130 lots, and the open interest was 219,146 lots, a decrease of 7,961 lots [4]. - **3.1.2期权因子 - 量仓PCR** - For AG (silver call options), the trading volume was 348,574 lots, an increase of 130,071 lots, and the open interest was 155,252 lots, an increase of 8,041 lots. The trading volume PCR was 1.49, a decrease of 0.04, and the open interest PCR was 0.78 [5]. - For AG (silver put options), the trading volume was 519,726 lots, an increase of 184,144 lots, and the open interest was 121,720 lots, an increase of 6,829 lots [5]. - **3.1.3期权因子 - 压力支撑** - For AG (silver options) with the ag2604 contract, the at - the - money strike price was 17,700, the pressure level was 37,600, the support level was 15,000, the weighted implied volatility was 104.44%, an increase of 14.65%, the annual average implied volatility was 46.18%, and HISV20 was 81.59% [6]. - **3.1.4行情解读与策略建议** - **行情解读**: As mentioned in the core viewpoints [7]. - **策略建议**: For directional strategies, construct a put - option bear spread strategy to obtain directional returns, such as B_AG2605P18000, S_AG2605P17000. No volatility strategy was recommended [8]. 3.2 Gold Options - **3.2.1标的期货市场数据** - The closing price of the au2604 contract was 1,039.22 yuan, with a decrease of 41.44 yuan or 3.83%. The trading volume was 343,231 lots, an increase of 98,663 lots, and the open interest was 68,993 lots, a decrease of 9,544 lots [17]. - **3.2.2期权因子 - 量仓PCR** - For AU (gold call options), the trading volume was 129,098 lots, an increase of 32,313 lots, and the open interest was 70,709 lots, an increase of 5,084 lots. The trading volume PCR was 1.01, a decrease of 0.03, and the open interest PCR was 0.62, a decrease of 0.04 [18]. - For AU (gold put options), the trading volume was 130,782 lots, an increase of 29,423 lots, and the open interest was 43,575 lots, an increase of 297 lots [18]. - **3.2.3期权因子 - 压力支撑** - (Although the relevant part in the original text seems incomplete and unclear, it can be inferred that) the pressure level of the AU options underlying was 1,200, and the support level was 1,000 [20]. - **3.2.4行情解读与策略建议** - **行情解读**: As mentioned in the core viewpoints [20]. - **策略建议**: No directional strategy was recommended. For volatility strategies, construct a short call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time - value returns, and dynamically adjust the positions to keep the position delta neutral, such as S_AU2605P1000, S_N22605C1056 [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of Treasury bond futures this week showed a pattern of oscillating decline, with the adjustment amplitude of long - term varieties greater than that of short - term ones. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures performed the weakest, hitting a new low for the year at one point. The trading logic in the financial market has shifted from the initial support of risk - aversion sentiment to concerns about imported inflation. The soaring oil price has strengthened the global "re - inflation" expectation, causing major central banks to turn cautious in their monetary policies. The market has postponed the expectation of the interest - rate cut time to after the second quarter. For the Chinese bond market, the core contradiction of the trading logic is that the long - term risk of geopolitical conflicts has pushed up international energy prices, which may be transmitted to the domestic market through PPI, improve corporate profitability, and start a positive cycle of "PPI recovery - corporate profit improvement - enhanced credit demand", thus continuously suppressing the bond market, especially the long - term varieties sensitive to interest rates. The central bank's reduction of repurchase operations and factors such as tax periods, new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and government bond payments have brought pressure on the capital side. Although the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, the signal of support for the stock market may intensify the pressure on bond trends [4]. - China is expected to replicate its role during the epidemic, becoming the "stabilizer" of global production with its complete industrial chain. The domestic fundamentals are likely to have an independent cycle. In the short term, the bond market faces adjustment pressure due to external inflation and the marginal convergence of internal capital, especially the long - term bonds. In the medium term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and there is unlikely to be a trending unilateral market. For trading positions, it is advisable to adopt a band - trading strategy, entering and exiting quickly; for allocation positions, one can wait for the negative factors to subside and moderately participate during the adjustment [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints - This week, Treasury bond futures showed an oscillating decline, with long - term varieties adjusting more than short - term ones. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures were the weakest. The trading logic in the financial market has shifted to concerns about imported inflation. The soaring oil price has strengthened the "re - inflation" expectation, and major central banks have maintained interest rates. The market has postponed the expectation of interest - rate cuts. For the Chinese bond market, geopolitical conflicts may push up energy prices, which may be transmitted through PPI, affecting bond prices. The central bank's reduction of repurchase operations and other factors have pressured the capital side, but the central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy. The signal of support for the stock market may increase bond pressure [4]. - China is expected to become the global production "stabilizer", and the domestic fundamentals may have an independent cycle. The bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure, especially for long - term bonds. In the medium term, it will likely oscillate within a range. Trading positions should use a band - trading strategy, and allocation positions can wait for negative factors to subside [6]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - Multiple charts are presented to show various aspects of liquidity, including open - market operations (currency投放, currency回笼, and net currency投放), medium - term lending facility (amount and price), reverse repurchase rates, inter - bank bond repurchase rates, deposit - type pledge - style repurchase rates, Shanghai Stock Exchange pledge - style repurchase rates, and loan market quotation rates, etc. [10][11][13] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - Charts are provided to show the basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures [48][58][67][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend due to sporadic restarts in major production areas on the supply side, a slight increase in weekly output of polysilicon and a slight decrease in organosilicon on the demand side, and continuous inventory reduction but still high inventory levels [6]. - For polysilicon, due to the poor liquidity of existing contracts, investors are reminded to pay attention to price fluctuations and liquidity risks and participate cautiously [7]. - For lithium carbonate, the futures price is expected to fluctuate. It is under pressure from macro - hedging and slow inventory reduction, but supported by demand. In the short term, due to the unclear macro - situation, investors are advised to participate cautiously [72]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: National weekly output is 6.73 tons, a 1.55% week - on - week increase; the number of open furnaces is 204, a net increase of 2. In February, the output was 27.57 tons, a 26.58% month - on - month decrease and a 4.77% year - on - year decrease. The planned output for March is 34.54 tons, a 25.27% month - on - month increase and a 0.99% year - on - year increase [6]. - **Demand**: For polysilicon, the weekly output is 1.97 tons, a 0.36% week - on - week increase; the factory inventory is 38.01 tons, a 1.92% week - on - week increase; the profit per ton is about - 3663 yuan, a 2000 - yuan decrease per ton week - on - week. For organosilicon, the DMC weekly output is 4.15 tons, a 0.95% week - on - week decrease; the factory inventory is 4.91 tons, a 6.51% week - on - week increase; the gross profit per ton is 885.63 yuan, a 464 - yuan decrease per ton week - on - week [6]. - **Inventory**: The national average cost per ton is 9072.06 yuan, a 0.01% week - on - week decrease; the gross profit per ton is - 109 yuan, a 3.26% week - on - week increase. In major production areas, the gross profit has decreased [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9073 yuan, a 0.01% week - on - week increase; the gross profit per ton is - 105 yuan, an 11 - yuan increase per ton week - on - week. In major production areas, the gross profit has decreased [6]. - **Investment View**: The price is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be based on a fluctuating market. Risks to be concerned about include production reduction and restart disturbances from large factories and changes in environmental protection policies [6]. 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 1.97 tons, a 0.36% week - on - week increase. In February, the output was 7.7 tons, a 23.61% month - on - month decrease and a 14.54% year - on - year decrease. The planned output for March is 8.49 tons, a 10.26% month - on - month increase and an 11.65% year - on - year decrease [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of silicon wafers is 10.68GW, a 1.41% week - on - week decrease; the gross profit per GW is - 32410 yuan, a 1200 - yuan increase week - on - week; the factory inventory is 27.65GW, a 2.47% week - on - week decrease [7]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 38.01 tons, a 1.92% week - on - week increase; the registered warehouse receipts are 29430 tons, an 8.23% week - on - week decrease [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 44190 yuan, unchanged week - on - week; the gross profit per ton is - 3663 yuan, a 2000 - yuan decrease week - on - week [7]. - **Investment View**: Due to the poor liquidity of existing contracts, investors are reminded to pay attention to price fluctuations and liquidity risks and participate cautiously [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be on a wait - and - see basis. Risks to be concerned about include production reduction and restart disturbances from large factories and changes in anti - involution policies [7]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 2.42 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase. In February, the output was 8.31 tons, a 15.13% month - on - month decrease and a 35.00% year - on - year increase. The planned output for March is about 10.64 tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase and a 34.56% year - on - year increase [72]. - **Import**: In February, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 2.64 tons, a 1.61% month - on - month decrease and a 114.36% year - on - year increase. In January, the import volume of lithium concentrate was 63.59 tons, a 1.26% month - on - month increase and a 32.16% year - on - year increase [72]. - **Material Demand**: For iron - lithium materials, the weekly output is 11.45 tons, a 1.00% week - on - week increase; the factory inventory is 10.67 tons, a 0.89% week - on - week increase. For ternary materials, the weekly output is 1.95 tons, a 0.57% week - on - week increase; the factory inventory is 1.84 tons, a 2.25% week - on - week increase [72]. - **Terminal Demand**: In February, the output of new energy vehicles was 69.45 vehicles, a 33.27% month - on - month decrease and a 21.76% year - on - year decrease; the sales volume was 76.48 vehicles, a 19.05% month - on - month decrease and a 14.23% year - on - year decrease. The winning bid power/scale for energy storage in February was 5.45GW/26.4GWH, a 40.24% month - on - month decrease and a 14.29% increase/year - on - year increase of 66.16%/204.85% [72]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 9.89 tons, a 0.09% week - on - week decrease. The inventory of lithium salt factories is 1.66 tons, a 1.94% week - on - week increase; the inventory of downstream sectors (cathode factories, battery factories, and traders) is 8.23 tons, a 0.49% week - on - week decrease [72]. - **Cost and Profit**: For lithium extraction from purchased ore, the cash production cost of lithium mica is 141044 yuan/ton, a 6.86% week - on - week decrease; the production profit is 6289 yuan/ton, a 5347 - yuan increase per ton week - on - week. The cash production cost of lithium spodumene is 150779 yuan/ton, a 3.73% week - on - week decrease; the production profit is - 250 yuan/ton, a 478 - yuan increase per ton week - on - week [72]. - **Investment View**: The futures price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate. It is under pressure from macro - hedging and slow inventory reduction, but supported by demand. In the short term, due to the unclear macro - situation, investors are advised to participate cautiously [72]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be based on a fluctuating market. Risks to be concerned about include production reduction disturbances at the ore end, changes in environmental protection policies, and disturbances from large power factories [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Multiple positive factors are driving the short - term methanol market to maintain a strong trend. Inland, high profits have led to high domestic methanol production, but the increase in olefin demand and the sharp rise of futures have boosted market buying sentiment, accelerating the inventory reduction of upstream methanol. Meanwhile, the expected tightening of imports has led to a rapid decline in port inventories. Traders are optimistic about the future, and downstream buyers are willing to follow high - priced goods, so the inland methanol price is expected to remain firm. In the port area, although imports are shrinking, the inflow of inland goods has slowed down the decline in port inventories. If the MTO plants in Jiangsu restart and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues, the port market is expected to remain strong next week. Currently, methanol has become the leader in the chemical market, and future attention should be paid to whether the US will withdraw troops from the Middle East and the sustainability of MTO profits [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Weekly Review - Multiple positive factors are driving the short - term methanol market to maintain strong operation. Attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East and MTO profits [5]. Fundamental Data Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From March 13th to March 20th, the prices of methanol in different domestic regions showed different trends. The price in Jiangsu increased by 7.96%, from 2,825 yuan/ton to 3,050 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong (Lunan) remained unchanged at 2,310 yuan/ton; the price in Hebei increased by 4.27%, from 2,340 yuan/ton to 2,440 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia increased by 7.18%, from 2,160 yuan/ton to 2,315 yuan/ton; the price in Fujian increased by 6.84%, from 2,850 yuan/ton to 3,045 yuan/ton [6]. Methanol Basis - From March 13th to March 20th, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu increased by 7.96%, from 2,825 yuan/ton to 3,050 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 11.66%, from 2,805 yuan/ton to 3,132 yuan/ton. The basis decreased from 20 yuan/ton to - 102 yuan/ton [8]. Methanol Production Profits by Different Processes - From March 13th to March 20th, the coal - to - methanol profit increased by 110 yuan/ton, reaching 455 yuan/ton; the natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 40 yuan/ton; the coke - oven - gas - to - methanol profit increased by 512 yuan/ton, reaching 601 yuan/ton [10]. Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - This week, the national methanol load was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% compared with last week's 78.71%. The methanol load in the northwest region was 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% compared with last week's 85.09% [12]. Outer - Market Methanol Prices and Spreads - From March 13th to March 20th, the CFR China price increased by 0.26%, from 381 US dollars/ton to 382 US dollars/ton; the CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 8.80%, from 511.5 US dollars/ton to 556.5 US dollars/ton. The spread between CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia widened from - 130.5 US dollars/ton to - 174.5 US dollars/ton [15]. Methanol Import Spreads - From March 13th to March 20th, the domestic methanol spot price increased by 7.96%, and the import cost increased by 0.10%. The import spread increased from - 391 yuan/ton to - 169 yuan/ton [17]. Traditional Downstream Product Prices of Methanol - From March 13th to March 20th, the price of formaldehyde remained unchanged at 1,070 yuan/ton; the price of dimethyl ether remained unchanged at 3,850 yuan/ton; the price of acetic acid increased by 3.13%, from 3,200 yuan/ton to 3,300 yuan/ton [22]. Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - **Formaldehyde**: The production profit was - 276 yuan/ton, and the load was 30.98%, a slight increase of 0.01% compared with last week [24]. - **Dimethyl Ether**: The production profit was 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 142 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week, and the load was 9.79%, an increase of 1.45% compared with last week [26]. - **Acetic Acid**: The production profit was 423 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week, and the load was 72.32%, a decrease of 1.29% compared with last week [31]. MTO Production Profits and Loads - The MTO production profit was - 3,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 720 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week, and the MTO/MTP device load was 84.18%, a decrease of 2.27% compared with last week [35]. Methanol Port Inventories - In the East China port, the inventory decreased from 54.8 to 51.07; in the South China port, the inventory decreased from 33.26 to 31.6 [36]. Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - From March 13th to March 20th, the number of methanol warehouse receipts decreased from 11,513 to 7,641, a decrease of 33.63%, and the number of effective forecasts remained unchanged at 147 [41]. Overhaul Conditions Domestic Methanol Device Overhaul - Multiple domestic methanol enterprises are in the process of overhaul, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc., with different overhaul start and end times, raw materials, and annual production capacities [43]. Foreign Methanol Device Operation - Foreign methanol enterprises in different countries have different operation conditions. Some Iranian enterprises are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations, while some enterprises in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally [44]. Olefin Device Operation - Olefin devices in different regions have different operation conditions. Some devices are operating stably, some are in the process of overhaul, and some are expected to be put into production [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report provides market data, analysis, and strategy suggestions for various black option products including glass, iron ore, rebar, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and manganese silicon options. It analyzes the price trends, volatility, and sentiment of these products and offers corresponding trading strategies [4][7][16][19] Summary by Directory Glass (FG) - **Market Data**: FG605 contract closed at 1054 yuan, down 1.31% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 659,638 lots (down 237,001 lots) and an open interest of 1,009,130 lots (up 16,505 lots) [4][7] - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility remained above the average of 0.3782; the open interest PCR was 0.5681, at the 89.80% level in the past year; the pressure level was 1660, and the support level was 1000 [6][7] - **Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a short - volatility combination of selling call and put options, such as S_FG2603P1020 and S_FG2603C1140 [8] Iron Ore (I) - **Market Data**: i2605 contract closed at 815.5 yuan, up 1.05% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 247,285 lots (up 54,179 lots) and an open interest of 450,190 lots (up 3,294 lots) [16][19] - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility remained above the average of 0.2283; the open interest PCR was 0.9164, at the 11.43% level in the past year; the pressure level was 900, and the support level was 700 [18][19] - **Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategy, construct a bull spread of call options, such as B_I2605C780 and S_I2605C830; no volatility strategy [20] Rebar (RB) - **Market Data**: rb2605 contract closed at 3123 yuan, down 0.25% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 724,139 lots (up 75,342 lots) and an open interest of 1,387,220 lots (down 62,026 lots) [29][32] - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility remained above the average of 0.1723; the open interest PCR was 0.509, at the 34.29% level in the past year; the pressure level was 3550, and the support level was 3000 [31][32] - **Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategy, construct a bull spread of call options; for volatility strategy, construct a combination of selling call and put options to obtain time value, and dynamically adjust positions to keep the delta of positions short, such as S_RB2605P2950 and S_RB2605C3200 [33] Soda Ash (SA) - **Market Data**: SA605 contract closed at 1202 yuan, down 1.23% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 775,438 lots (down 29,498 lots) and an open interest of 926,643 lots (down 17,858 lots) [41][44] - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility remained above the average of 0.3250; the open interest PCR was 0.3541, at the 69.39% level in the past year; the pressure level was 1740, and the support level was 1100 [43][44] - **Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a short - volatility combination to obtain volatility returns, such as S_SA2605P1140 and S_SA2605C1300 [45] Ferrosilicon (SF) - **Market Data**: SF605 contract closed at 5932 yuan, up 1.57% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 409,548 lots (up 301,614 lots) and an open interest of 180,829 lots (up 15,634 lots) [54][57] - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility remained above the average of 0.2264; the open interest PCR was 0.7943, at the 68.98% level in the past year; the pressure level was 6000, and the support level was 5500 [56][57] - **Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategy, construct a bull spread of call options; for volatility strategy, do not recommend strategies mainly based on selling (such as single - selling or double - selling) [58] Manganese Silicon (SM) - **Market Data**: SM605 contract closed at 6400 yuan, up 3.45% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 1,391,750 lots (up 1,218,184 lots) and an open interest of 428,681 lots (up 84,146 lots) [66][69] - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility remained above the average of 0.2242; the open interest PCR was 0.5476, at the 51.02% level in the past year; the pressure level was 7100, and the support level was 6000 [68][69] - **Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategy, construct a bull spread of call options; for volatility strategy, due to high geopolitical risks, do not recommend strategies mainly based on selling (such as single - selling or double - selling) [70]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading and position data of various market sectors on March 20, 2026, including changes in trading volume, position amount, and trading - position ratio compared to the previous trading day [1] Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report provides multiple figures related to plate liquidity, such as the trading - position ratio, trading volume change rate, position amount, etc., of each plate. The data sources for these figures are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][4][5] II. Stock Index Plate - On March 20, 2026, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 101.0251 billion yuan, a - 2.12% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 146.0928 billion yuan, a - 5.81% change; the trading - position ratio was 67.70% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On March 20, 2026, the treasury bond plate had a trading volume of 34.7549 billion yuan, a - 3.88% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 87.5491 billion yuan, a + 0.52% change; the trading - position ratio was 38.74% [1] IV. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On March 20, 2026, the base metals plate had a trading volume of 77.0824 billion yuan, a + 6.52% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 60.1954 billion yuan, a - 2.82% change; the trading - position ratio was 132.26%. The precious metals plate had a trading volume of 118.0958 billion yuan, a + 42.79% change; the position amount was 42.9512 billion yuan, a - 7.53% change; the trading - position ratio was 330.96% [1] V. Energy and Chemicals Plate - On March 20, 2026, the energy and chemicals plate had a trading volume of 112.5402 billion yuan, a - 9.22% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 56.5407 billion yuan, a - 5.06% change; the trading - position ratio was 182.55% [1] VI. Agricultural Products Plate - On March 20, 2026, the agricultural products plate had a trading volume of 38.3046 billion yuan, a + 1.08% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 65.7859 billion yuan, a - 0.25% change; the trading - position ratio was 58.00% [1] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On March 20, 2026, the black building materials plate had a trading volume of 23.4442 billion yuan, a + 37.53% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 32.4712 billion yuan, a + 1.87% change; the trading - position ratio was 71.17% [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As of March 21, 2026, the Mongolian coal inventory at Ganqimaodu Port slightly decreased by 30,000 tons to 4.45 million tons The weekly average number of customs - cleared vehicles in the third week of March was 1,351 vehicles per day, lower than 1,416 vehicles per day and 1,450 vehicles per day in the previous two weeks However, the monthly average daily customs - cleared vehicles in March were still 1,405 vehicles per day, far higher than the historical same - period levels of 878 vehicles (2025), 1,121 vehicles (2024), and 988 vehicles (2023) [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs - **Inventory**: As of March 21, 2026, the Mongolian coal inventory at Ganqimaodu Port slightly decreased by 30,000 tons to 4.45 million tons [3] - **Customs - cleared Vehicles**: The weekly average number of customs - cleared vehicles in the third week of March was 1,351 vehicles per day, lower than the previous two weeks The monthly average daily customs - cleared vehicles in March were 1,405 vehicles per day, far higher than the historical same - period levels [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The current macro data remains stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. The monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond market, stock index, precious metals, and various commodity futures markets are affected by factors such as the Iran - US conflict, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, with different trends and investment suggestions. [6][10][12] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.42%, 0.09%, 0.06%, and 0.01% respectively. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR on March 20, 2026, were 3.0% and 3.5% respectively. The US is considering the next - stage plan and possible peace talks with Iran. The market is expected to face pressure, and caution is advised. [5][6] Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM fell 0.28%, 0.95%, 1.16%, and 1.26% respectively. With weak domestic economic recovery momentum, low corporate profit growth, and low asset valuation, the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is advisable to wait on the sidelines. [8][10] Precious Metals - Last trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver fell 2.15% and 2.00% respectively. The "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold, but due to the previous sharp rise and the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines. [12] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly corrected. The short - term Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect sentiment, while the medium - term price is determined by supply - demand. The demand for rebar is still in a downward trend, but the supply pressure has eased. The price may rebound but with limited space. The trend of hot - rolled coil is expected to be similar. Investors can look for low - position long opportunities. [14] Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The short - term Middle - East conflict may affect sentiment, and the demand is expected to expand after the end of key meetings, but the supply is abundant. The price is expected to rebound in the short - term, and investors can look for low - position long opportunities. [16] Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The short - term Middle - East conflict may affect sentiment. The supply of coking coal may increase, and the demand is weak. The supply of coke is stable, and the demand is expected to increase. The price is in a volatile pattern, and investors can look for low - position buy opportunities. [17] Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron rose 3.46% and 1.58% respectively. The cost is in a narrow - range upward trend, the supply is loose, and the demand is weak. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking long - position profit - taking opportunities. [19][20] Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to the easing of the US - Israel - Iran war. Speculators increased their net long positions, and the US energy companies reduced the number of oil and gas rigs. The US approved the relaxation of sanctions on Iranian oil products. The price may be supported, but due to the change in the war situation, it is advisable to wait on the sidelines. [21][22] Polyolefins - Last trading day, the PP and LLDPE markets in Hangzhou and Yuyao declined. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, the cost pressure increased, the industry's operating rate decreased, and the supply decreased. The downstream demand increased slightly. It is necessary to operate with caution due to geopolitical influence, and it is advisable to wait on the sidelines. [24] Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose 1.82%. The current price is mainly supported by cost and is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to device maintenance, crude oil price, and tire export orders. [26][28] Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber fell. The market is in a game between the cost of synthetic rubber pushed up by the Middle - East conflict and the approaching domestic tapping season and inventory pressure. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile trend. [29][30] PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract fell during the day and rose at night. The market is in a game between the energy and raw material supply concerns caused by the overseas conflict, the spring demand, and high inventory. The price is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile trend, but the upside is restricted by high inventory. [31][33] Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract fell. The current contradiction lies between high supply and policy ceiling. The price is expected to be in a weak - volatile trend, but the downside is limited due to cost support and approaching demand season. [34][35] PX - Last trading day, the PX2605 main contract fluctuated. The PXN spread and short - process profit are compressed, the supply is slightly tight, and the demand is gradually recovering. Affected by the uncertain geopolitical situation, the price may be volatile and may have a correction risk. It is necessary to operate with caution. [36][37] PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fluctuated. The processing fee has adjusted, the demand from downstream is weak, and the price is mainly affected by the change in the cost end. Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, it is advisable to operate with caution. [38] Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, the demand from downstream increased, and the price is expected to be stronger than other polyester varieties in the short - term. However, due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, it is necessary to pay attention to the situation of the Strait and the progress of the spring inspection. [39][40] Short - Fiber - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2606 main contract fluctuated. The supply decreased slightly, the demand from downstream is weak, and the price is mainly affected by the cost end. It is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress. [41] Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the bottle chips 2605 main contract fell sharply. The cost support weakened, the demand from downstream is weak, and due to the changeable Middle - East situation, the raw material price may fluctuate greatly. It is advisable to participate with caution. [42][43] Soda Ash - Last trading day, the main contract of soda ash fell. The supply remains high, the inventory decreased slightly, and the demand from downstream is weak. The price is expected to be in a short - term volatile adjustment. [44][45] Glass - Last trading day, the glass main contract fell. The production lines decreased, the inventory decreased slowly, the demand from downstream is weak, and the cost pressure remains. The price is expected to be volatile. [46] Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the caustic soda main contract rose. The supply decreased slightly, the demand from downstream is good, and the price of 50% caustic soda may rise. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas device dynamics and export orders. [47][48] Pulp - Last trading day, the pulp main contract rose. The port inventory decreased, the domestic supply increased slightly, the demand from downstream is weak, and the price of pulp is expected to be supported. The risk of coniferous pulp fluctuation is relatively high, while broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable. [49][50] Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract fell. Affected by the US - Iran conflict and resource nationalism in Africa, the supply of lithium ore may be in a tight balance, the demand from downstream is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to have strong support below, but the short - term volatility may increase. [51] Copper - Last trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was almost eliminated, and the dollar index rose. The supply of copper is tight, the demand is structurally growing, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to be in a weak - volatile trend with a bottom. [52][53] Aluminum - Last trading day, the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts fell. Alumina is in a cost - driven rebound, and electrolytic aluminum is under pressure due to the game between strong expectation and weak reality. The price of alumina may be in a volatile adjustment, and the price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be in a weak - volatile trend with a bottom. [54][55] Zinc - Last trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose slightly. The supply of zinc is increasing, the demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and affected by the Middle - East situation and the strong dollar, the price is expected to be under pressure. [56][57] Lead - Last trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose slightly. The supply of lead is supported in the short - term, the demand is weak, and affected by the macro pressure on the non - ferrous sector, the price is expected to be in a weak - volatile trend. [58][59] Tin - Last trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose. Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the price may be volatile. The supply of tin is slightly eased, the demand is supported by the emerging field, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to have support below, but it is necessary to control risks due to the uncertainty of the overseas situation. [60] Nickel - Last trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose. Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the price may be volatile. The supply of nickel ore may be tight, the cost may rise, the demand from downstream is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price of primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and it is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events. [61][62] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell, and the soybean oil main contract rose slightly. Brazilian soybean harvest is approaching 60%, and the dollar is rising, which suppresses the price of soybeans. The short - term supply of soybeans may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. It is advisable to wait and see due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East conflict. [63][64] Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market was closed on March 20 and 23, and will resume trading on March 24. The export volume of palm oil products increased from March 1 - 20, and the domestic import volume increased. The inventory is at a relatively high level in the past 7 years. It is advisable to consider reducing or closing long positions. [65][66] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed is oscillating near the key support level. The domestic import volume of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal is large. The inventory of rapeseed is at a low level in the past 7 years, the inventory of rapeseed meal is at a high level, and the inventory of rapeseed oil is at a medium level. It is advisable to wait and see. [67] Cotton - Last trading day, domestic Zheng cotton fell, and the overseas cotton market was weak. The domestic cotton import volume increased in 2026, and the issuance of the sliding - scale quota increased and was advanced, which is a short - term negative factor. However, the global cotton production is expected to decrease in the new year, and the medium - and long - term price is expected to be strong. [68][70] Sugar - Last trading day, domestic Zheng sugar rebounded slightly, and the overseas raw sugar rose. The domestic sugar import volume increased, the production is expected to increase, and the industrial inventory is higher. The increase in oil price will change the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new season, and the medium - and long - term sugar price bottom is expected to rise. [71][73] Apples - Last trading day, apple futures were strong. As the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking is in full swing, the demand in the sales area is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The apple market is expected to maintain a stable - to - strong trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory - removal rate and the weather during the flowering period. [74][76] Hogs - Last trading day, the main contract of hogs fell. The supply of hogs is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short - term. The government has started the purchase - storage mechanism, but the support is insufficient. It is advisable to hold short positions. [77] Eggs - Last trading day, the main contract of eggs rose. The cost of eggs is rising, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level in the past 10 years, and the supply in March is expected to remain high. It is advisable to gradually take profit on short positions in the far - month contracts. [78][79] Corn and Starch - Last trading day, the corn and corn - starch main contracts rose. The northern port inventory is low, the demand from feed enterprises is increasing, and the price is strong. The South American corn planting is progressing smoothly, and the dollar is rising, which brings pressure. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the demand for corn starch is slightly improving. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of the far - month out - of - the - money put option when the price rises sharply. [80][82] Logs - Last trading day, the main contract of logs rose. The shipment of New Zealand logs to China increased, the downstream demand improved, and the terminal consumption is polarized. The cost pressure increased, and the price is expected to be in a high - level volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the overseas quotation, shipment dynamics, and downstream consumption. [83][85]

Report Information - Report Title: Global Macro and Asset Allocation Weekly Report - Report Date: March 23, 2026 - Research Institution: Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute, Macro Strategy Group 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The situation between the US and Iran continues to dominate market trends. The expansion of the conflict to energy facilities has led to concerns about inflation and a more cautious stance on monetary policy. Market expectations of interest rate cuts have been dispelled, and short - term interest rate hike risks are being priced in, putting pressure on most major asset classes [5]. - The war situation has led to a spread of stagflation concerns in the domestic market. A - share markets are dominated by risk - aversion trading, and the bond market continues to be under pressure [5]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - The US - Iran conflict has expanded to energy facilities, potentially lengthening the recovery cycle of crude oil supply. Brent crude oil prices have risen, increasing inflation concerns. Central banks have become more cautious, with the Fed on hold in March, the ECB's probability of a rate hike increasing, and the Bank of England sending hawkish signals [5]. - The market has abandoned expectations of rate cuts this year and is pricing in rate - hike risks, tightening financial market liquidity and pressuring major assets [5]. - In the domestic market, stagflation concerns have spread, and risk - aversion trading has dominated the A - share market, with most sectors falling significantly and the bond market under continued pressure [5]. 3.2 Global Major Asset Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Markets - Global stock markets generally fell this week, with risk appetite continuing to decline. In developed markets, the S&P 500 fell 1.9%, the German DAX fell 4.55%, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.83%, and the South Korean KOSPI rose 5.36%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.38%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.74%, the Brazilian IBOVESPA fell 0.81%, and the Saudi All - Share Index rose 0.55% [7][9]. - MSCI global indices generally declined, with emerging markets > frontier markets > global markets > developed markets [9]. 3.2.2 Currency Markets - The US dollar index fell from its high, depreciating 0.99% to 99.5. The on - shore RMB appreciated 0.31% to 6.88. Emerging market currencies fluctuated, with the Mexican peso appreciating 0.17% and the Brazilian real appreciating 0.08%. Most developed - country currencies appreciated, with the euro up 1.32%, the yen up 0.32%, the British pound up 0.91%, and the Australian dollar up 0.58% [10][12]. 3.2.3 Bond Markets - Inflation concerns led to continued upward oscillations in the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major developed countries. In developed markets, the US Treasury yield rose 11bp to 4.39%, the UK Treasury yield rose 9bp, and the Japanese Treasury yield fell 2bp. In emerging markets, the Chinese Treasury yield rose to 1.83%, the Indian Treasury yield rose 6bp, and the Brazilian Treasury yield fell 11bp [17][19]. 3.2.4 Commodity Markets - The US - Iran conflict continued to escalate, and the commodity market consolidated at a high level under tight liquidity. WTI crude oil fell 1.23% and natural gas fell 1.15% in the week ending March 13. The previously high - flying metal sector continued to be pressured, with LME copper down 7.07%, LME aluminum down 7.18%, COMEX gold down 10.57%, and silver down 15.92% [22]. - The domestic commodity market showed mixed performance, with energy and chemicals > black metals > industrial products > agricultural products > non - ferrous metals > precious metals [22]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Major Assets 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Gold is rated as "weakly oscillating." Short - term market tightening trading logic continues, with rising interest rates pressuring gold. The price of gold has support around $4400 - $4500 per ounce, but volatility is high, and it's difficult to say it's stable. Buying on dips requires waiting [24][25]. - The Comex gold futures speculative net long position increased slightly, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased slightly to 1056 tons, and funds flowed out of the precious metals sector. Silver is expected to be weak, with its ETF holdings flowing out and the risk of a short squeeze decreasing [37]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - The US dollar is rated as "oscillating." Uncertainty in the US - Iran situation has increased, and the US dollar will maintain high - level fluctuations [24]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - US stocks are rated as "weakly oscillating." Although there are signals of a cooling in the US - Iran conflict, short - term uncertainty remains high. Before the actual easing, US stocks are expected to continue to be weak and oscillating. It's recommended to wait for right - side signals [24][43]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - A - shares are rated as "oscillating." In the short term, as the war situation expands, there are few opportunities for stock indexes. It's recommended to adopt a risk - aversion strategy and wait for the situation to become clear with a low - position [24][57]. 3.3.5 Government Bonds - Government bonds are rated as "oscillating." Negative factors still exist, but the war situation is complex. It's recommended to be cautious and pay more attention to short - selling hedging strategies [24][60]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - frequency Economic Data - The US GDPNow model predicts Q1 growth to slow to 2.3%, while the Redbook retail sales year - on - year growth rate is 6.4%. The US economy remains resilient. Brent crude oil prices rose to $109 per barrel, increasing inflation concerns [77]. - US jobless claims continued to fall to 1.857 million, and initial claims were 205,000. The job market remained resilient, and the number of unemployed did not increase significantly [77]. - Bank reserves fell to $3 trillion, the TGA account balance rose to $875.8 billion, and overnight reverse repurchase volume rose to $820 million. Inter - bank market liquidity remained tight. High - yield corporate bond credit spreads oscillated upward, and investment - grade corporate bond spreads reached recent highs [83]. - The 2 - month US non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, far below market expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The 2 - month CPI was in line with expectations, with a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Inflation still faces significant resistance to decline, and the risk of future inflation rebound has increased [86]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - frequency Economic Data - The "Qiushi" magazine published an article on improving and stabilizing real - estate expectations, but it's unclear how to improve expectations under the pressure of residents' income. Shanghai's second - hand housing transactions increased, but the transaction volume of first - hand housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was low [92]. - As of March 20, R001, DR001, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.39%, 1.32%, 1.32%, and 1.42% respectively. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8.37 trillion yuan this week, 196.1 billion yuan less than last week [95]. - China's January - February economic data generally exceeded market expectations. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 6.3% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment increased 1.8% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased 2.8% year - on - year [96]. - In February, new loans were 90 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease. Residents' short - term and medium - long - term loans were negative, while enterprises' short - term and medium - long - term loans increased year - on - year. Social financing increased year - on - year, but there was no obvious improvement in credit [104]. - In February, PPI year - on - year growth was - 0.9%, and CPI year - on - year growth was 1.3%. Input factors and the release of residents' consumption demand during the Spring Festival led to rising prices. If the war ends quickly, the pace of domestic price increases will be relatively slow; if it continues to escalate, inflation will rise rapidly [111]. - January - February exports increased 21.8% year - on - year, and imports increased 19.8% year - on - year. The overall improvement in global manufacturing PMI and the late Spring Festival this year contributed to the increase in export growth [119].