CCMN国际市场：今日伦铝高位下挫，LME三个月北京时间14：52报于3190.5美元/吨，较上一交易日 结算价跌5.5美元/吨，跌幅0.17%。 国内期货：今日沪铝主力月2603合约冲高回落，尾盘震荡收阴；开盘价报24500元/吨，盘中最高25005 元/吨，最低24465元/吨，昨日结算24610元/吨，尾盘收至24595元/吨，跌15元，跌幅0.06%；沪铝主力 月2603合约全天成交量777707手减少47846手，持仓量368605手减少2376手。 CCMN现货市场评述：今日长江现货成交价格24650-24690元/吨，涨370元，贴水195-贴水155，跌30 元；广东现货24665-24715元/吨，涨380元，贴水85-贴水35，跌15元；上海地区24640-24680元/吨，涨 370元，贴水205-贴水165，跌30元。 宏观层面，美国12月CPI数据表现温和，环比涨0.3%、同比2.7%，核心CPI环比0.2%、同比2.6%，均低 于市场预期。这强化了市场对美联储今年两次降息的预期，低利率环境利好风险资产，降低持有成本并 吸引资金流入。不过，美国货币政策独立性争议再起，中东局势不确定性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum alloy market is experiencing mixed signals with rising prices in the short term due to macroeconomic factors, while demand remains weak, leading to a cautious outlook for future price movements [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for casting aluminum alloy (2603) opened high but weakened, closing at 23,380 yuan, down 50 yuan, with a decline of 0.21% [1]. - The trading volume decreased by 8,122 contracts to 19,803 contracts, while open interest fell by 89 contracts to 22,010 contracts [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - On January 14, the average price for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was reported at 26,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan [1]. - Other aluminum alloy prices also saw increases, with A380 at 25,500 yuan/ton (up 300 yuan), ADC12 at 23,900 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan), ZL102 at 25,800 yuan/ton (up 300 yuan), and ZLD104 at 25,700 yuan/ton (up 300 yuan) [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The raw material side shows strong support for casting aluminum costs due to tight supply of imported and domestic scrap aluminum, alongside tax adjustments raising costs in some regions [2]. - Demand is weak, with the operating rate of alloy plants dropping to 58% due to seasonal factors and insufficient orders, particularly in the automotive sector [2]. - The overall trading atmosphere is subdued, with downstream purchasing sentiment affected by high prices, leading to a cautious approach from buyers [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The industry faces challenges with cost transmission issues limiting price increases, resulting in compressed profits and suppressed consumption [2]. - The market for casting aluminum is characterized by weak supply and demand, suggesting that future prices will fluctuate with costs, maintaining a generally strong performance [2].

Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Aluminum's actual controllers reduced their shareholding after the stock price reached a new high, cashing out over 800 million yuan, which has attracted market attention [1]. Group 1: Shareholding Reduction - On January 13, Tianshan Aluminum announced the completion of the share reduction plan by its actual controllers, Zeng Chao Yi and Zeng Chao Lin, who sold a total of 22,949,300 shares at an average price of 17.78 yuan, totaling approximately 816 million yuan [1][2]. - After the reduction, the combined shareholding of Zeng Chao Yi, Zeng Chao Lin, and their concerted parties decreased from 37.00% to 36.67% [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Tianshan Aluminum's stock price saw a significant increase of 116.6% in 2025, with the stock continuing to perform strongly into 2026 [4]. - During the reduction period, the stock price reached a new high of 18.98 yuan, and as of January 14, 2026, the closing price was 18.31 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 874.5 billion yuan and a dynamic P/E ratio of 17.99 times [4]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Stock Price - The rise in aluminum prices, ongoing share buybacks, and share cancellations have contributed to the continuous increase in Tianshan Aluminum's stock price [5]. - The company has established a complete aluminum industry chain, from bauxite to aluminum foil, which provides strong cost and integrated competitive advantages [5]. - Despite the overall aluminum price being in a fluctuating pattern over the past three years, the price increased by 15.9% in 2025, with further gains in early 2026, indicating potential for performance growth for Tianshan Aluminum [5]. Group 4: Share Buyback Plans - From 2022 to 2025, Tianshan Aluminum conducted three share buyback plans, with significant floating profits exceeding 1.8 times the repurchase price based on current closing prices [6][7]. - In 2022, the company repurchased 23,148,000 shares at an average price between 6.22 yuan and 6.72 yuan, while in 2024, it repurchased 15,155,300 shares at prices ranging from 4.86 yuan to 8.17 yuan [6][7].

Group 1 - Wells Fargo raised the target price for Alcoa Corporation from $58 to $71 [1] - The rating for Alcoa was downgraded from "Outperform" to "Hold" [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hongchuang Holdings has seen a significant increase in its stock price, rising 2.25% to 29.09 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 379.075 billion CNY and a cumulative increase of 7.94% over the past four days [1] - Hongchuang Holdings specializes in the processing, production, and sales of high-quality aluminum plates, strips, and foils, with its main business revenue composition being: aluminum foil 45.37%, cast-rolled coils 30.34%, cold-rolled coils 23.83%, aluminum particles 0.36%, scrap income 0.08%, leasing income 0.01%, and material income 0.00% [1] - The company is located in the Economic Development Zone of Boxing County, Binzhou City, Shandong Province, and was established on August 11, 2000, with its listing date on March 31, 2010 [1] Group 2 - The fund "Shangyin Xinzhuo Mixed A" (008244) holds a significant position in Hongchuang Holdings, with 556,000 shares, accounting for 2.06% of the fund's net value, making it the tenth largest holding [2] - The fund has generated a floating profit of approximately 355,800 CNY today and a total of 1,189,800 CNY during the four-day increase [2] - The fund was established on January 21, 2020, with a current scale of 461 million CNY, and has reported a year-to-date return of 1.37% and a one-year return of 11.42% [2]

Core Viewpoint - 2026 is identified as the "Year of the Red Horse," which is favorable for the Chinese base metals market due to factors such as a weak dollar, a U.S. interest rate cut cycle, and ongoing supply tightness in copper and aluminum [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - Demand drivers for this year include a 10% year-on-year increase in grid investment, a 27% growth in electric vehicle battery production, a 41% increase in energy storage systems, and rising AI power demand [1] - The real estate and consumer sectors are experiencing weakness, while the implementation of anti-involution policies is becoming more balanced but currently lacks strong enforcement [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The company favors aluminum stocks as alternative investments for AI power supply, maintaining a "buy" outlook on gold, copper, lithium (including battery materials), and cobalt stocks [1] - The company holds a neutral view on coal and is bearish on solar energy and construction materials (such as steel) due to weak demand, short-term weak enforcement of anti-involution policies, and declining steel profit margins [1] Group 3: Preferred Stocks - Preferred stocks include China Aluminum, Zijin Mining, China Hongqiao, Shandong Gold, and Ganfeng Lithium [1]

Core Viewpoint - 2026 is identified as the "Year of the Red Horse," which is favorable for the Chinese base metals market due to factors such as a weak dollar, a U.S. interest rate cut cycle, and strong demand driven by electrification and AI power infrastructure [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - A weak dollar and the U.S. interest rate cut cycle are beneficial for metals [1] - Continuous supply tightness for copper and aluminum is noted [1] Group 2: Demand Drivers - Key demand drivers include a 10% year-on-year increase in grid investment, a 27% growth in electric vehicle battery demand, a 41% increase in energy storage systems, and rising AI power demand [1] Group 3: Sector Outlook - The real estate and consumer sectors are experiencing weakness [1] - Policies aimed at reducing internal competition are becoming more balanced, although recent execution has been weak [1] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The firm prefers aluminum stocks as alternative investments for AI power supply [1] - A "buy" outlook is maintained for gold, copper, lithium (including battery materials), and cobalt stocks [1] - Coal is viewed neutrally, while solar and construction materials (like steel) are seen negatively due to weak demand and declining steel profit margins [1] Group 5: Preferred Stocks - Preferred stocks include China Aluminum, Zijin Mining, China Hongqiao, Shandong Gold, and Ganfeng Lithium [1]

云南是全国水能源最丰富的地区之一，其丰富的水电资源和得天独厚的绿色能源优势，为"绿色铝"的诞生提供了天然的沃土。云南铝业股份有限公司（以 下简称"云铝股份"）充分发挥云南绿色清洁水电能源独特优势，从铝土矿源头开始，将绿色、可持续理念贯穿于矿产资源开发、能源结构优化和供应链管 理的全流程，通过建设绿色矿山、构建负责任的供应链体系，以"绿水青山就是金山银山"为指引，为每一块"绿色铝"注入了低碳基因，奠定了绿色铝产业 的坚实根基。 绿电驱动：从能源源头重塑产业"动力心脏"，奠定绿色铝纯洁血统 工业发展的血液是能源，其"颜色"决定了产业的碳足迹底色。对于电解铝这一高载能产业而言，源头的能源结构直接定义了铝产品的环境属性。云铝股份 充分依托云南省清洁水电的独特优势，构建了以水电为核心、光伏为补充的"双绿电"能源矩阵。 云铝股份创新构建"绿色生态、固碳储能"的可持续发展模式，坚持"谁开发、谁保护"原则，形成"由外及内、由易到难、由高到低"的科学复垦体系，创新 应用生态固土技术实现边坡裸露修复，充分利用矿区自然条件、地形地貌，建设花园、绿地、宣传栏、观景台等景观设施。在典型喀斯特地貌的西畴矿业 卖酒坪矿山，云铝文山创新土壤 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Neutral [9] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [9] - Aluminium Alloy: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The high - level volatility of Shanghai aluminium prices has increased, suppressing consumption. Although it's the off - season, the rapid inventory accumulation due to the late Spring Festival makes short - term price downward transmission difficult. Macro factors are the long - term driving force for price increase, but short - term large fluctuations caused by capital need to be watched out [6]. - In the alumina market, the electrolytic aluminium procurement price in the spot market is still falling slightly, the cost of bauxite is under pressure, the supply is in surplus, and the social inventory is increasing. Although there is a large amount of capital inflow, there is no support for the absolute price increase [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aluminium Price and Inventory - **Spot Aluminium**: On January 13, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminium was 24,300 yuan/ton, with a change of - 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminium was - 60 yuan/ton, with a change of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Similar price and premium/discount data were also provided for Central China and Foshan [1]. - **Futures Aluminium**: On January 13, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminium opened at 24,750 yuan/ton, closed at 24,375 yuan/ton, with a change of - 210 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 825,553 lots, and the position was 370,981 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: As of January 13, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 730,000 tons, with a change of 16,000 tons compared to the previous period. The warrant inventory was 100,762 tons, with a change of 3,349 tons compared to the previous trading day. The LME aluminium inventory was 494,000 tons, with a change of - 1,825 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. 3.2 Alumina Price and Inventory - **Spot Alumina**: On January 13, 2026, the SMM alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, Guizhou were 2,630 yuan/ton, 2,580 yuan/ton, 2,660 yuan/ton, 2,735 yuan/ton, 2,775 yuan/ton respectively. The Australian alumina FOB price was 310 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Futures Alumina**: On January 13, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,869 yuan/ton, closed at 2,780 yuan/ton, with a change of - 59 yuan/ton (- 2.08%) compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 964,869 lots, and the position was 553,364 lots [2]. 3.3 Aluminium Alloy Price, Inventory, Cost and Profit - **Price**: On January 13, 2026, the procurement prices of Baotai civil raw aluminium and mechanical raw aluminium were 18,000 yuan/ton and 18,300 yuan/ton respectively, with no change compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 23,500 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 68,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 64,500 tons [4]. - **Cost and Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 22,988 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 312 yuan/ton [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For building materials, it is expected to operate in a range-bound consolidation [4] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mining - related news [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process steel mills will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons [3][4] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started to stop production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - Building materials prices continued to decline and reached a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the weak supply - demand situation and lack of highlights. Winter storage is sluggish and provides weak support for prices [4] Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the overall inflation rate in the US in December remained unchanged, and the core indicator annual rate was lower than expected. Traders increased bets on "earlier Fed rate cuts" [3] - High aluminum prices suppress downstream purchasing demand, and the overall trading sentiment of buyers declined compared to the previous trading day [4] - The supply shortage of domestic bauxite has eased, alumina plants' bauxite inventories have increased, the spot price of alumina is under pressure, and the intended purchase price of domestic bauxite by alumina plants is falling [4] - The intended transaction price of imported bauxite has decreased, the market is quiet, and some alumina plants are cautious in their procurement plans [4] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic leading aluminum processing enterprises increased by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%, but the overall situation is "supply - side disturbances ease, demand - side suppression intensifies" [4] - High aluminum prices have generally suppressed the entire industrial chain. Downstream enterprises delay purchases and digest inventories, resulting in insufficient new orders [4] - The operating rate of aluminum processing is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term [4] - On January 12, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas was 730,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons from the previous Monday [4] - Macro performance is strong. The logic of the monetary easing cycle driven by the Fed's rate - cut expectation remains unchanged. Domestic monetary easing and consumption policies boost market risk appetite and demand expectations, but beware of high - price risks [5]