Group 1: ABS Market Overview - In August 2025, the Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) market saw 99 new registrations with a total scale of 875.92 billion yuan [1] - The top three ABS underlying assets by registration scale were accounts receivable (250.89 billion yuan), micro-loan debts (213.01 billion yuan), and financing lease debts (189.73 billion yuan) [1] - As of the end of August 2025, there were 2,573 ABS in existence with a total scale of 21,891.65 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Securities Monitoring and Regulatory Actions - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange monitored "*ST Yushun" closely from September 22 to September 26, addressing 176 abnormal trading behaviors [2] - The exchange reported two major company events for verification and submitted two suspected illegal cases to the China Securities Regulatory Commission [2] Group 3: Silicon Material Production and Market Trends - In October, the production of polysilicon exceeded expectations, with two companies reporting a decrease while four reported an increase [3] - Inventory pressure in the polysilicon market is becoming evident, with expectations of continued accumulation unless downstream demand remains high [3] Group 4: Corporate Leadership Changes - Merck Group announced a leadership transition, with Kai Beckman set to take over as CEO from Belén Garijo on May 1, 2026 [3] - Xiamen International Bank approved the appointment of Wang Fenghui as Chief Information Officer [6] Group 5: Financial and Regulatory Developments - Baoli Tianheng's subsidiary was questioned by Yunnan's medical insurance bureau regarding the high price of a medication, which raised concerns about pricing practices [3] - Jingliang Holdings received an administrative regulatory decision from Hainan's Securities Regulatory Bureau for revenue recognition issues involving 2.99 billion yuan [8] Group 6: Corporate Transactions and Listings - Moller Thread's IPO application was approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, aiming to raise 8 billion yuan for various AI and chip development projects [7] - Wanxing Technology submitted an application for H-share issuance and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [9]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The global commodity market exhibited a mixed performance this week, with precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy chemicals showing strong results, while some industrial products and agricultural commodities faced downward pressure [1] - Key factors influencing market sentiment include Federal Reserve policy expectations and economic data, alongside geopolitical risks and changes in supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 2: Precious and Non-Ferrous Metals - Precious metals, particularly gold, saw a cumulative increase of over 2% this week, driven by rising risk aversion and fluctuations in the US dollar [2] - The market anticipates the nearing end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, which diminishes the appeal of dollar-denominated assets and directs funds towards precious metals [2] - Copper prices experienced a significant breakthrough, with both Shanghai and international copper prices rising over 3%, primarily due to a sudden event at the world's second-largest copper mine [2] Group 3: Fuel Oil Market - Fuel oil futures, especially high-sulfur varieties, performed notably well this week, supported by tightening supply-demand fundamentals and cost factors [3] - Russian refining facilities have been under attack, leading to a sharp decline in fuel oil exports, which alleviates supply pressure on high-sulfur fuel oil [3] - In Asia, demand for high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to rebound, while summer power demand in the Middle East continues to provide market support [3] Group 4: Palm Oil Market - The palm oil market exhibited wide fluctuations this week, with intense competition between bullish and bearish factors [4] - Indonesia's palm oil inventory rose to 2.57 million tons by the end of July, indicating significant supply-side pressure [4] - Delays in the EU's zero-deforestation regulation and rising international crude oil prices provide some support for palm oil prices [4] Group 5: New Energy Materials - The price of polysilicon futures continued to decline this week, as market trading logic returned to fundamental realities [5] - Supply pressure remains the primary factor suppressing prices, with industry inventory continuing to accumulate [5] - Demand-side performance is concerning, as the "export rush" phenomenon in Q3 has depleted Q4 photovoltaic demand, leading to an unfavorable outlook for end consumption [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable in the short term, with future trends dependent on demand improvement and effective implementation of production cut policies in Q4, leading to a substantial improvement in supply-demand dynamics [1] - The report anticipates a return to normal profitability for the industry by 2026, with leading companies benefiting from significant technological and cost advantages post-capacity clearance, recommending a focus on New Energy (01799) and GCL-Poly Energy (03800) [1] - Currently, there are about 10 polysilicon producers operating, with overall operating rates remaining relatively low and stable supply of silicon materials. In September, domestic polysilicon production is expected to be around 130,000 tons, which still exceeds downstream demand [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that polysilicon inventory remains above 400,000 tons, with a slight accumulation trend due to weak market demand and ongoing supply surplus. This is compounded by self-discipline in production cuts and strong policy expectations from the government [2] - The market is experiencing a divergence between producers' pricing and actual market transaction prices, driven by high inventory levels and reduced mainstream order volumes, leading to expectations of short-term price stability at high levels [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals have little change, and the futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are policies to drive, the market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with large inventory pressure and difficult price transmission. In the short - term, the trading situation has weakened, but in the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to build long positions at low prices [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On September 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price trended stronger. The main contract 2511 opened at 9035 yuan/ton and closed at 9055 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton (0.72%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 259,965 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,066 lots, an increase of 141 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on September 25 was 543,000 tons, unchanged from last week. Before the National Day, the downstream stocking demand increased, and the goods turnover in warehouses was good [1] Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10,900 - 11,200 yuan/ton. This week, the DMC quotes of some domestic monomer enterprises increased slightly by 100 - 200 yuan/ton compared to last week. The slight increase in the transaction price of DMC this week was supported by cost, supply - demand, and expectations [2] Strategy - Short - term range operation, and for dry - season contracts, go long at low prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On September 25, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 51,480 yuan/ton and closed at 51,365 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 0.89% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 105,474 lots, and the trading volume was 184,786 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, and the silicon wafer inventory also increased. The overall market sentiment cooled down, with large inventory pressure and expected insufficient production reduction in October [3][5] Strategy - Short - term range operation, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [7][8]

Group 1 - Company GCL-Poly Energy (stock code: 3800) announced a financing plan through the issuance of new shares, aiming to raise approximately HKD 5.39 billion (net proceeds of approximately HKD 5.39 billion) [1] - The company primarily engages in the production of polysilicon, with the raised funds allocated as follows: approximately HKD 1.8 billion for structural adjustments in polysilicon capacity, approximately HKD 0.91 billion for enhancing silane gas and related materials R&D and capacity, approximately HKD 0.8 billion for optimizing the company's capital structure, approximately HKD 0.4 billion for general corporate purposes, and approximately HKD 1.49 billion for repaying bank loans [1] - The issuance is based on a general authorization granted by the shareholders' meeting, and the subscription is subject to the fulfillment of certain conditions and/or exemptions, meaning the subscription may not necessarily proceed [1]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the short-term price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable, supported by strong policy expectations [2][3] - Current production levels of polysilicon are stable, with an estimated output of around 130,000 tons in September, while demand from downstream remains excessive [2][3] - High inventory levels exceeding 400,000 tons continue to indicate an oversupply situation in the market [2] Production and Supply - The number of polysilicon producers currently stands at 10, with overall operating rates remaining relatively low [2] - Industry leaders plan to reduce or halt production at their Sichuan and Yunnan bases after the holiday, contributing to a downward adjustment in October's output [2] Demand and Market Dynamics - Market purchasing activity is subdued as downstream leaders have already accumulated significant inventory [2] - The current strategy for downstream companies is to prioritize the consumption of existing stock, leading to a slowdown in polysilicon order placements [2] Price Trends - The market is experiencing a dichotomy between high inventory levels and strong policy expectations, resulting in a divergence between producer quotes and actual market transaction prices [2] - The report anticipates that short-term prices will stabilize at high levels due to reduced order placements in the current market [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the future trajectory of polysilicon prices will largely depend on demand recovery and the effective implementation of production reduction policies in Q4 [3] - It is preliminarily judged that the industry may return to normal profitability by 2026, with leading companies benefiting from significant technological and cost advantages post-capacity clearance [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The copper market shows a strengthening upward trend due to factors such as reduced global copper mine supply, decreased domestic inventories, and industry opposition to "involution" competition [3][4][7]. - The alumina market has limited downward space as prices are below the theoretical full - cost, but the fundamental oversupply situation restricts price rebound [11][12][15]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to maintain an oscillatory upward trend, with consumption showing resilience as indicated by the reduction in social inventories [18][21]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has alloy ingot spot prices remaining stable and slightly strong, with market expectations being positive [23][25]. - The zinc market may see a small surplus in September, and the overseas market's inventory reduction may support zinc prices, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [30][31]. - The lead market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation as multiple factors are intertwined [36][37]. - The nickel market is affected by positive news from Indonesia and the Philippines, and prices are oscillating strongly [40][42]. - The stainless steel market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, with cost support and slow inventory reduction [47][50]. - The tin market has limited supply improvement, weak demand, and prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [54][56]. - The industrial silicon market's price is affected by polysilicon production and market sentiment, and it is recommended to participate with long positions [61][63][64]. - The polysilicon market is expected to see a small increase in inventory, and it is recommended to trade with low - long band operations [66][67][69]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, with supply and demand factors both having an impact [71][72][74]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 82,710 yuan/ton, up 3.4%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 89,053 lots to 552,800 lots [2]. - Spot: The Shanghai copper spot reported a premium of 30 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Guangdong market reported a premium of 60 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the North China market reported a discount of 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Important Information** - As of September 25, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 1.401 million tons compared to Monday, and it was the first weekly decline after four consecutive weeks of increase [3]. - Goldman Sachs lowered its global copper mine supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with a total reduction of 525,000 tons in copper mine supply [4]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Grasberg incident has changed the long - term supply - demand structure, intensifying the tightness of copper mines. The industry's opposition to "involution" competition has increased market bullish sentiment [7]. - Consumption shows a weak peak season, and downstream acceptance of high prices is insufficient [7]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price is rising rapidly, and the bullish trend is strengthening [8]. - Arbitrage: Continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage [9]. - Options: Wait and see [10] 3.2 Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The alumina 2601 contract increased by 48 yuan to 2,942 yuan/ton [11]. - Spot: The alumina spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [11]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the national alumina inventory was 3.797 million tons, an increase of 78,000 tons from last week [12]. - The strike at the Guinean bauxite mine and the reduction in the price of mainstream mines in Guinea and Australia have affected the market [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis** - The price is below the theoretical full - cost, with limited downward space, but the fundamental oversupply situation restricts price rebound [15]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price rebounds slightly, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 3,000 yuan [16]. - Arbitrage: Reverse calendar spread arbitrage [17]. - Options: Wait and see [17] 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract increased by 80 yuan to 20,765 yuan/ton [18]. - Spot: The aluminum ingot spot prices in East China, South China, and Central China all increased [18]. - **Related Information** - The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles and auto products [18]. - On September 25, the domestic aluminum ingot spot inventory decreased by 23,000 tons [18]. - The 500,000 - ton first - phase electrolytic aluminum project of Indonesia's Adaro - Liqin is expected to be put into production in stages at the end of 2025 [18]. - **Trading Logic** - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market is cautious about further cuts. The rise in copper prices has driven the rebound of LME aluminum, and the reduction in social inventories shows consumption resilience [21]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Aluminum prices rebound with the sector [27]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27] 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 45 yuan to 20,365 yuan/ton [23]. - Spot: The ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot spot prices in some regions increased, while others remained flat [23]. - **Related Information** - The "Notice on Implementing Policies for Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" has an impact on the recycled aluminum industry [23]. - On September 24, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased [23]. - **Trading Logic** - Some enterprises are stocking up for the National Day holiday, and the demand for die - casting plants is increasing, with alloy ingot prices remaining stable and slightly strong [25]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The alloy futures price rebounds with aluminum prices [28]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [28]. - Options: Wait and see [28] 3.5 Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai zinc 2511 increased by 0.59% to 22,045 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index's positions decreased by 14,900 lots to 238,500 lots [29]. - Spot: The spot trading in the Shanghai market was average, with downstream enterprises having low enthusiasm for purchasing [29]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the domestic seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 0.80 million tons compared to September 18 [30]. - A smelter in South China resumed production on September 25, with a total impact of 4,000 tons during the maintenance period [30]. - The winning bid price of a zinc mine in North China decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton [30]. - **Logic Analysis** - The refined zinc supply in September may have a small reduction, but the monthly output is still at a relatively high level. The downstream's low - price purchasing has led to a small reduction in social inventories [31]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Affected by the external market, the Shanghai zinc price may oscillate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the LME inventory change [31]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [33]. - Options: Wait and see [33] 3.6 Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai lead 2511 increased by 0.09% to 17,090 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index's positions decreased by 1,713 lots to 93,600 lots [32]. - Spot: The SMM1 lead average price remained unchanged, and the trading was average [35]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the SMM lead ingot five - region social inventory decreased by 2.13 million tons compared to September 18 [36]. - Some large - scale recycled lead smelters in Anhui and Inner Mongolia have no plans to resume production in the short term [36]. - **Logic Analysis** - The increase in lead prices has repaired the losses of recycled lead smelters, and some enterprises plan to resume production. The downstream may stock up before the National Day [37]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The lead price may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [38]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [38]. - Options: Wait and see [38] 3.7 Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2511 increased by 1,310 to 122,990 yuan/ton, and the index's positions increased by 13,909 lots [40]. - Spot: The premiums of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel changed [40]. - **Related Information** - The Chicago Fed President warned against continuous interest rate cuts [41]. - The Indonesian government sanctioned 25 nickel mining companies [41]. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. has business cooperation with solid - state battery customers and has shipped nearly 50 tons of solid - state battery materials [42]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Indonesian copper mine accident and the suspension of some nickel mines in Indonesia have boosted nickel prices, but the impact on supply is limited. The net import of refined nickel in August decreased, and LME inventory is expected to increase [42]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Oscillate strongly [43]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [44]. - Options: Wait and see [45] 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2511 contract increased by 25 to 12,930 yuan/ton, and the index's positions decreased by 7,520 lots [47]. - Spot: The cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel prices are within a certain range [47]. - **Related Information** - On September 25, the national mainstream stainless steel social inventory decreased for the fifth consecutive week, mainly with the digestion of 400 - series resources [48]. - The US import tariff has a serious impact on the stainless steel market [48]. - **Logic Analysis** - The stainless steel production in September has increased significantly, but the demand has not shown seasonal peak characteristics. The slow reduction in inventory and cost support lead to an oscillatory trend [50]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [51]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [52] 3.9 Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 273,710 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,140 yuan/ton or 0.79%, and the positions increased by 2,908 lots to 53,950 lots [54]. - Spot: The spot tin ingot price increased, but the trading was poor, and the downstream demand was weak [54]. - **Related Information** - By 2035, the global 6G user penetration rate will be 22.3% [55]. - The Indonesian government suspended the mining activities of 190 mining enterprises, including about 14 tin - mining enterprises [55]. - **Logic Analysis** - The strong US dollar index restricts price increases. The supply of tin mines is still tight, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [56]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Maintain a high - level oscillation [59]. - Options: Wait and see [60] 3.10 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated strongly, closing at 9,055 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [61]. - Spot: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable [62]. - **Related Information** - In August, the export volume of industrial silicon products in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month [63]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The current inventory structure of industrial silicon is "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production and market sentiment of polysilicon in October have a greater impact on prices [64]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate with long positions [65]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [65]. - Arbitrage: None [65] 3.11 Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The polysilicon futures main contract oscillated, closing at 51,365 yuan/ton, up 0.89% [66]. - Spot: The polysilicon spot price remained stable, and different types of polysilicon have different price ranges [66]. - **Related Information** - On September 24, Xinjiang Dongfang Hope's first - phase polysilicon production line started annual maintenance, and the third - phase project is ready for maintenance [67]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The polysilicon spot price is stable, and the 11 - contract faces the pressure of warehouse receipt cancellation. The demand in October is expected to weaken, but production will also decrease, and a small inventory increase is expected [69]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Trade with low - long band operations [70]. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread arbitrage between the 2511 and 2512 contracts [70]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [70] 3.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2511 contract increased by 680 to 74,040 yuan/ton, the index's positions decreased by 1,551 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased by 560 to 40,309 tons [71]. - Spot: The SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased [71]. - **Important Information** - The US government is seeking to acquire up to 10% of the equity of American Lithium Corp [72]. - The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles and auto products [72]. - **Logic Analysis** - On the supply side, the lack of processing profit and limited increase in lithium ore imports in September may affect production. On the demand side, although orders are full, the increase in the customer - supplied ratio may reduce downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Lithium prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [74]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [75]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [75]. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination [75]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ (Three empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (Three empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆ (Two empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Tin: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Views - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals market shows different trends, with some metals being affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external events [1][2][5]. - Some metals are expected to continue their current trends, while others are facing uncertainties and may enter a period of adjustment or consolidation. Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper significantly increased its positions and continued its upward trend, actively digesting the force majeure of the Grasberg copper mine and domestic smelters' "anti - involution" statements [1]. - Global mine - end supply is tightening, and the environment for processing fee negotiations is difficult. The spot copper price has risen to 82,505 yuan, with a premium of 30 yuan in Shanghai and a refined - scrap price difference exceeding 4,500 yuan [1]. - LME copper is expected to reach $10,500, and the Shanghai copper index may break through the previous high this year and continue to rise to 84,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with the East China spot at par. The apparent demand in September was lower than expected, and the aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 21,000 tons compared to Monday, with pre - National Day destocking less than in previous years [2]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate between 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price increasing by 100 yuan to 20,400 yuan [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is approaching 98 million tons, hitting a new high, and the industry inventory is continuously rising. Supply is significantly in excess, and prices are falling. The current price still allows for profit in the production capacity of Shanxi and Henan, making it difficult to trigger production cuts, and alumina is weakly running towards the June low of 2,800 yuan [2]. Zinc - Driven by the sharp rise in copper prices, the non - ferrous metal sector was generally strong, and Shanghai zinc rebounded to recover the previous day's decline. LME zinc rebounded after returning to the 40 - day moving average due to low overseas inventories [2]. - Fundamentally, the domestic market is weak while the overseas market is strong, and the Shanghai - London ratio is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Domestic consumption during the peak season is weak, and due to tariff impacts, galvanized sheet exports weakened in August. Affected by the super typhoon "Saola", consumption in the Pearl River Delta region shrank temporarily, and the expectation of zinc ingot inventory accumulation strengthened [2]. - Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate around the 22,000 - yuan mark [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated, and market trading was dull. The sharp rise in external copper prices drove up nickel prices, but the improvement in its own fundamentals was limited [5]. - The upward trend of stainless steel spot prices is difficult to sustain, but the pre - National Day stocking demand is gradually emerging. Stainless steel mills are still in a state of cost inversion, and cost - side support is emerging [5]. - Nickel inventory increased by 430 tons to 41,500 tons, nickel - iron inventory decreased by 600 tons to 28,700 tons, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 897,000 tons. Shanghai nickel has exhausted its bullish themes, and nickel prices are weakly running and about to start a downward trend [5]. Tin - Shanghai tin closed up, and the spot tin price increased by 2,300 yuan to 273,700 yuan. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of LME tin at $34,500 at night, and LME tin inventory rose to 2,740 tons. Wait for the social inventory data tomorrow and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [6]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium prices are in a short - term strong - side oscillation, and market trading is active. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,500 tons [6]. - The low - price support for lithium prices is emerging, but the selling actions in the industrial chain are basically completed. After the interest rate cut and the ebb of the "anti - involution" trend, the price is expected to be under pressure [6]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly up at 9,055 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton [6]. - The operating rate in Xinjiang continued to increase slightly, while Sichuan and Yunnan maintained their high operating rates during the wet season. However, the incremental release of demand from polysilicon and organic silicon was insufficient, and the social inventory of industrial silicon increased week - on - week [6]. - Driven by market sentiment and the expected increase in costs, the futures price is short - term strong, but the support for continuous rise is insufficient, and it will mainly continue to oscillate [6]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly up. On the spot side, the quoted price range of N - type re - feeding materials was basically stable at 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton (SMM) [6]. - In September, the polysilicon industry's production plan was about 130,000 tons (SMM), with limited month - on - month change. In October, due to industry self - discipline, the production plans of silicon wafers and polysilicon are expected to be synchronously reduced, and polysilicon still faces a slight inventory accumulation pressure [6]. - On the policy side, the capacity clearance continues to be gradually promoted, and the futures price is temporarily oscillating at the lower end of the range [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply of polysilicon is difficult to increase significantly due to high - level energy consumption standards and new capacity access thresholds, while demand is weakening as terminal demand is soft and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persists. However, the market is affected by news, and polysilicon is expected to show a high - level oscillation. Today, polysilicon has a narrow - range oscillation, with technical indicators showing signs of turning bullish, and short - term bullish performance is expected. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 51,365 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main position is 105,474 lots, down 5,713 lots; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,395 yuan, down 40 yuan; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 42,310 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,500 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the basis is 1,120 yuan/ton, down 1,270 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, up 0.09 US dollars; the average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, with no change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 9,055 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the spot price is 9,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; the monthly output is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,006 tons, down 164 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.14 US dollars; the monthly average import price is 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 69,857,000 kilowatts, up 3,475,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 149,022,600 pieces, up 38,589,980 pieces; the monthly import volume is 21,440,290 pieces, up 6,914,640 pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.25 US dollars/piece, down 0.05 US dollars; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 30.34, up 0.62 [2] 3.6 Industry News - On September 16, the Standardization Administration of China issued solicitation drafts for three national standards, setting an energy - consumption red line for polysilicon production enterprises. There have been several polysilicon - related events, including the annual conference of the Silicon Industry Branch discussing energy - consumption standards and past market conditions, the monthly regular meeting of the Photovoltaic Industry Association discussing the purchase - storage policy and production/ sales restrictions [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals have little change, and the industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. The valuation is low, and if there are relevant policies, the futures price may rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, and both supply and demand are expected to decline in the fourth quarter. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, with large fluctuations. In the long - term, it is suitable to buy polysilicon futures at low prices [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - **Futures Price**: On September 24, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8950 yuan/ton and closed at 9020 yuan/ton, a change of 0.84% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2511 was 270931 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49925 lots, a decrease of 38 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The price of East China oxygen - fed 553 silicon was 9400 - 9600 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were relatively stable. As of September 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 54.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 tons [1]. - **Demand Side**: The price of silicone DMC was stable at 10900 - 11200 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises maintained a rigid demand - based procurement rhythm. Although monomer factories had a stronger willingness to hold prices, price increases were restricted, and the demand was affected by the approaching National Day holiday [2]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Short - term range trading, and buy - hedging on dips. - **Others**: No strategies for inter - delivery, cross - product, spot - futures, or options [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - **Futures Price**: On September 24, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 50300 yuan/ton and closed at 51380 yuan/ton, a 2.41% change from the previous trading day. The position was 111187 lots, and the trading volume was 242016 lots [2]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N - type material was 50.00 - 55.00 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The weekly output of polysilicon decreased by 0.50% to 31000 tons, and the output of silicon wafers increased by 0.29% to 13.92GW [2][4]. - **Enterprise Event**: Oriental Hope's Xinjiang polysilicon project will conduct annual maintenance on its three - phase production lines with capacities of 60,000 tons, 60,000 tons, and 90,000 tons respectively. This maintenance is expected to improve product quality and production stability, and it will not have a significant impact on the overall supply [5]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Short - term range trading. - **Others**: No strategies for inter - delivery, cross - product, spot - futures, or options [6].