Core Viewpoint - Apple CEO Tim Cook's visit to Shanghai for the 10th anniversary of Pop Mart's THE MONSTERS exhibition highlights the growing influence and recognition of Pop Mart in the consumer market, particularly with its LABUBU character gaining significant popularity [1][5][9]. Company Overview - Pop Mart's market capitalization has recently fallen to approximately HKD 350 billion after experiencing a stock price correction, yet it remains one of the most remarkable consumer companies of the year [3][12]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in revenue, with a reported income of HKD 13.88 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 204.4% [9]. - LABUBU, as the fastest-growing IP under Pop Mart, contributed approximately HKD 4.814 billion to the total revenue, increasing its share from 13.7% in 2024 to 34.7% in 2025 [9]. Market Dynamics - Following a peak in stock price, Pop Mart's shares have experienced a decline of over 25% from their record high, with the current stock price around HKD 265 [10][12]. - The launch of Pop Mart's jewelry brand, popop, has not met the same level of excitement as its toy products, indicating a potential shift in consumer interest [10]. - Despite concerns over declining prices in the secondary market for LABUBU, analysts suggest this is a result of rapid production expansion rather than a decrease in IP popularity [11].

Core Insights - The event "潮玩总动员·2025成都文创产业（粤港澳大湾区）合作对接会" held in Dongguan aimed to foster collaboration between Chengdu's cultural creativity and the manufacturing capabilities of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, resulting in over 20 signed projects worth more than 10 billion yuan [1][10][11] Group 1: Event Overview - The event attracted over 100 representatives from top潮玩 companies, trade associations, and investment institutions in the Greater Bay Area, showcasing Chengdu's cultural depth and digital creative vitality [1][2] - The "成都-粤港澳大湾区潮玩协同创新发展联盟" was established during the event to facilitate ongoing collaboration and resource sharing between Chengdu and the Greater Bay Area [11][13] Group 2: Economic and Cultural Context - Chengdu's cultural industry achieved a value-added output of 187.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4% [4] - The Greater Bay Area, particularly Dongguan and Shenzhen, is recognized for its leading潮玩 design and manufacturing capabilities, with Dongguan being the largest toy export base in China [4][8] Group 3: Investment and Collaboration Opportunities - Chengdu's investment environment was highlighted, emphasizing its advantages in consumer markets, creative economy, and industrial ecosystem, attracting interest from Greater Bay Area enterprises [5][10] - The event facilitated various collaborations, including the establishment of a 3D printing factory and a creative product design project focused on Chengdu's cultural heritage [10][11] Group 4: Industry Potential and Future Directions - The collaboration aims to create a seamless connection between Chengdu's top-tier IP and creative design resources with the manufacturing strengths of the Greater Bay Area, promoting a full chain of "IP incubation - intelligent manufacturing - international marketing" [13] - The event showcased the potential of Chengdu's cultural IP, with local companies demonstrating their capabilities in various creative sectors, indicating a promising future for collaboration in the潮玩 industry [7][8]

Group 1: Company Overview and Strategy - Guangbo Group is actively expanding into the trendy toy market, aligning product development with current market trends, including badges, cards, and plush toys [3] - The company emphasizes innovation and brand building, integrating IP resources to drive business transformation and create new growth points [3] Group 2: IP Strategy - Guangbo's IP strategy focuses on a three-tiered approach: securing traffic with major IPs, exploring niche markets with smaller IPs, and nurturing proprietary IPs for long-term growth [4] - The company aims to establish a comprehensive marketing system that enhances the conversion of content popularity into consumer sales [4] Group 3: International Trade and Market Expansion - In response to changes in U.S. tariff policies, Guangbo plans to enhance its creative product offerings and increase its market share in other international regions [5] - The establishment of a European subsidiary marks a significant step in the company's globalization strategy, alongside the development of multiple overseas bases to improve supply chain flexibility [5] Group 4: Southeast Asia Market Focus - The Southeast Asian market is prioritized due to its large, youthful consumer base and significant growth opportunities, with increasing demand for culturally rich and creatively designed products [6] - Guangbo intends to leverage existing overseas subsidiaries and local resources to adapt and promote its cultural and creative products effectively in this region [6]

"增长滤镜"下的东盟消费潜力再评估 证证证证证证证证证 www.chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 CGS-NDI 专题报告 "增长滤镜"下的东盟消费潜力再评估 2025 证 10 证 14 证 核心观点 分析师 首席经济学家 章俊 证8092 -8906 证zhangjun_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130523070003 研究助理：田冀霖 证tianjilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 研究助理：刘小逸 证liuxiaoyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 东盟消费规模增长预测 证证证证证Euromonitor 证证证证证证证证证证 风险提示 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 1 ⚫ 东盟消费潜力的再审视 ：2025 证证证证证证证证证证 IP 证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 2证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple CEO Tim Cook's visit to Shanghai for the 10th anniversary of Pop Mart's THE MONSTERS exhibition highlights the growing influence and recognition of Pop Mart in the consumer market, particularly with its LABUBU character [1][5][7]. Company Overview - Pop Mart, a leading player in the trendy toy market, has seen its market capitalization drop to approximately HKD 350 billion after a recent stock price correction, yet it remains one of the most remarkable consumer companies of the year [3][9]. - The company went public in Hong Kong in 2020 and has experienced significant fluctuations in its stock price, including a notable low of HKD 9.4 [7]. Financial Performance - In August 2023, Pop Mart reported its best performance since inception, with revenue for the first half of 2025 reaching RMB 13.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and a net profit of RMB 4.574 billion, up 396.5% [7]. - The LABUBU character, part of the THE MONSTERS series, contributed approximately RMB 4.814 billion to the total revenue, increasing its share from 13.7% in 2024 to 34.7% in 2025 [7]. Market Trends - Following the surge in popularity of LABUBU, Pop Mart's stock price soared to around HKD 340, with a market cap exceeding HKD 440 billion [7]. - However, the stock has since experienced a decline, dropping to approximately HKD 265, resulting in a loss of nearly HKD 100 billion in market value over two months [9][10]. Cultural Impact - The collaboration between Pop Mart and artist Kasing Lung, creator of LABUBU, has led to a significant cultural phenomenon, with the character gaining international attention, particularly after a social media post by BLACKPINK member Lisa [5][8].

Group 1: Technology Sector Insights - Embracing technology narratives has been key for investors seeking high returns this year, despite significant volatility in popular sectors [1] - The market is experiencing a shift from overheated trading and high valuations to areas with better cost-performance ratios, which is a long-term spontaneous behavior [1] - The technology sector, despite high valuations, remains strong in industrial trends and is considered one of the sectors with a high probability of positive returns [1] Group 2: Consumer Sector Analysis - The overall performance of the consumer sector has been weak, but new consumption areas are generating investment opportunities [2] - The demand for a better quality of life remains unchanged, and the evolving consumer demographics and product offerings are revealing growth potential in various niche markets [2] - Key areas of focus for future investments include trendy toys, pet food, beauty products, household cleaning items, health supplements, and snacks [2] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Characteristics - The Hong Kong market is primarily driven by institutional investors, which influences its unique pricing logic and market ecology [2] - There are stricter requirements for fundamentals in the Hong Kong market, often necessitating tangible performance indicators like orders or revenue to see good stock performance [2] - The high proportion of institutional investors leads to greater liquidity requirements for individual stocks, causing many small-cap stocks to be overlooked due to insufficient trading activity [2] Group 4: Investment Focus Areas - In the Hong Kong market, the focus is on scarce assets such as domestic technology internet giants and leading companies in the AI application field [2] - Attention is also directed towards undervalued Hong Kong stocks that are trading at a discount compared to their A-share counterparts, particularly in the financial and resource sectors [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant presence of Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, at the 10th anniversary exhibition of Pop Mart in Shanghai, indicating the growing interest of major global brands in the Chinese consumer market [2][5][8]. Company Overview - Pop Mart, a leading player in the trendy toy market, has seen its market capitalization drop to approximately 350 billion HKD after a recent stock price correction, yet it remains one of the most remarkable consumer companies of the year [5][15]. - The company has experienced a remarkable turnaround in 2024, with a substantial increase in revenue driven by the popularity of its LABUBU character and expansion into Southeast Asia [7][14]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart reported a record revenue of 13.88 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, with a net profit of 4.574 billion CNY, up 396.5% [14]. - LABUBU, as a key intellectual property (IP) for Pop Mart, contributed approximately 4.814 billion CNY to the total revenue, representing a significant increase in its share of total revenue from 13.7% in the same period of 2024 to 34.7% in 2025 [14][15]. Market Trends - The article notes a notable moment when BLACKPINK member Lisa posted with LABUBU, leading to a surge in interest and making Pop Mart's app the top shopping app on the US App Store [8]. - Despite the recent stock price decline of over 25% from its peak, analysts suggest that this may not indicate a decline in IP popularity but rather a result of rapid production expansion [15][18].

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for various strategic initiatives, including IP development and global market expansion [3][4]. Financial Performance - TOP TOY has experienced significant revenue growth, with income increasing from RMB 678.8 million in 2022 to RMB 1.91 billion in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.7% [9]. - The adjusted net profit has shown a rapid increase, from a loss of RMB 38.2 million in 2022 to a profit of RMB 180 million in 2025 [9]. Revenue Structure - The company's revenue is heavily reliant on licensed IP products and externally sourced products, which together account for nearly 100% of total revenue [4][11]. - In 2025, revenue from licensed IP products was RMB 889 million, while self-developed IP products contributed only RMB 6.8 million, indicating a significant dependency on external sources [11][13]. Market Position and Strategy - TOP TOY is recognized as the largest and fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, with a product matrix that includes figures, 3D models, and plush toys [6]. - The company plans to expand its domestic store count from 299 to between 380 and 400 by the end of 2023, with a long-term goal of opening 1,000 stores globally [8][9]. Sales Channels - The sales structure is primarily composed of offline distributors, which accounted for 51.6% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, with the largest distributor being its parent company, MINISO [20][21]. - The sales model includes direct retail, sales through franchise partners, and sales to offline distributors, with the latter being the most significant contributor to revenue [16][20]. Competitive Landscape - TOP TOY's business model differs fundamentally from that of its competitor, Pop Mart, positioning itself as a collectible retail store rather than a self-branded retailer [10][14]. - The competition between TOP TOY and Pop Mart is expected to intensify, particularly in core urban markets and global expansion efforts [14]. Financial Health - TOP TOY's financial health is concerning, with a debt-to-asset ratio exceeding 100% and liquidity ratios below safe thresholds, indicating potential financial instability [23].

文 | 山核桃 泡泡玛特创始人王宁和苹果CEO库克"意外"见了一面。 串联起消费电子圈和潮玩圈两位大佬的，依旧是人们熟悉的LABUBU。 10月13日的上海，参观完THE MONSTERS十周年巡展的库克，收获了一个定制版的LABUBU，泡泡玛特官方平台"泡泡范儿"在微信官方将这场活动取名 为： 库克中国行首站为LABUBU过生日。 "对于苹果的供应链，没有比中国更重要的地方。"这是库克对"果链"的称赞。 苹果亲手建立起的这条供应链，不仅为其塑造了护城河，也曾拉动一批果链企业实现增长。如果说库克是科技界的供应链管理大师，那么，王宁则是潮玩 界的供应链大师，这也是很多人不知道的王宁的"另一面"。 随着"泡泡玛特们"的业绩狂飙，潮玩赛道有可能和苹果一样，涌现出一条"泡泡玛特链"吗？ 过去半年里，一些上市公司的名字出现在一些供应链相关文章中，至少有20家上市企业在投资者互动平台公开回应"是否与泡泡玛特/卡游有直接的合作关 系"。 有些直接辟谣，但表示在尝试合作；有的则模棱两可，表示与公司签订了保密协议，还有的则直接公开回应长期合作关系，与之带来的就是股价的波动。 可以确定的是，"泡泡玛特们"的朋友圈确实在扩容，一批 ...

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for various strategic initiatives, despite its impressive revenue growth being overshadowed by significant risks related to its business model and reliance on licensed IP products [2][4][18]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Growth - TOP TOY's revenue has seen rapid growth, increasing from 678.8 million RMB in 2022 to an expected 1.91 billion RMB in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.7% [5][7]. - The company reported adjusted net profits of -38.2 million RMB in 2022, 213 million RMB in 2023, and 294 million RMB in 2024, indicating a trend of increasing profitability [5][7]. - As of June 30, 2025, TOP TOY's revenue for the first half of the year reached 1.36 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 58.51% [5][7]. Group 2: Business Model and Revenue Structure - TOP TOY's revenue is heavily reliant on licensed IP products, which account for nearly 100% of total revenue, while self-developed IP products contribute only a negligible amount [2][9][11]. - The sales structure shows that the highest proportion of sales comes from distributors, with 51.6% of total revenue generated through this channel in the first half of 2025 [15][16]. - The company has a significant dependency on its parent company, Miniso, which serves as its largest distributor, raising concerns about its operational independence [12][16]. Group 3: Market Position and Competitive Landscape - TOP TOY is recognized as the largest and fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, with plans to expand its store count from 299 to 1,000 globally over the next five years [4][5]. - The company aims to establish a "China Toy Going Global Alliance" to enhance its international market presence, competing directly with established players like Pop Mart [5][11]. - The strategic focus on expanding its own IP development is critical, as the current reliance on licensed IP limits pricing power and long-term profitability [11][18]. Group 4: Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges in developing its own IP, with only 17 self-owned IPs compared to 43 licensed IPs, which may hinder its ability to compete effectively in the market [8][11]. - TOP TOY's gross margin is significantly lower than that of competitors like Pop Mart, with margins reported at 19.9% to 32.7% compared to Pop Mart's 57.49% to 70.34% [17][18]. - Financial health indicators show that TOP TOY has a high debt ratio, with an asset-liability ratio exceeding 100%, indicating potential liquidity issues [18].