1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The current period shows a significant decline in apparent demand, with steel prices weakening and a notable drop in night - trading. Despite the May Day holiday factor, the decline is greater than in previous years. Steel prices weakened first while iron ore remained strong, leading to a lower steel - ore ratio. Considering high production, if demand weakens, steel mills are expected to cut production. With relatively low steel inventories, unilateral operations are recommended to be on hold for now. Arbitrage operations of going long on steel and short on raw materials can be considered[1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract of iron ore was weakly running, affected by the news of crude steel production cuts. The price of iron ore is under continuous upward pressure. Fundamentally, this week's average daily hot metal production increased slightly month - on - month and remained at a high level. The social inventory of finished products generally increased, and the apparent demand decreased month - on - month. The profitability of steel mills improved slightly, and hot metal production may continue to stay high in the short term. Looking forward, the terminal demand for finished products determines the sustainability of high hot metal production. The marginal changes lie in exports and infrastructure. In reality, with high hot metal production, iron ore inventory is basically stable, but from May to June, overseas mines will increase shipments, and the subsequent supply - demand pressure for iron ore will increase. Coupled with the increasing expectation of crude steel production cuts, the iron ore price is expected to continue to be under pressure[3]. Coke - As of May 8, coke futures showed a volatile downward trend. The second round of spot price increases for coke has encountered resistance and is currently in a game stage. Considering the weak situation of coking coal, the second - round price increase may not materialize. After the holiday, the ex - factory price of coke will remain stable in the short term, and the port trade price will run weakly. On the supply side, due to the high hot metal production of downstream steel mills, coke enterprises have good orders, and their production and profits have improved. On the demand side, after the holiday, hot metal production remained above 245,000 tons per day, and steel mills replenished inventory as needed, without obvious inventory accumulation. It is necessary to pay attention to whether hot metal production will decline in the future. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coking plants and steel mills has been decreasing, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. Although the fundamentals of coke have improved, the weakness of coking coal, over - capacity, and the lack of pricing power of coke enterprises are the main reasons for the weak decline of coke prices. It is recommended to continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts[5]. Coking Coal - As of May 8, coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend. After the May Day holiday, the market auction was cold again, and the pattern of loose supply and demand was difficult to reverse in the short term. On the supply side, domestic coal mines continued to resume production, and production was at a relatively high level. In terms of imported coal, before the holiday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased significantly, and the import profit of seaborne coal continued to be negative. On the demand side, as the downstream blast furnaces and coking plants continued to operate, the inventory was still purchased on - demand. After the holiday, hot metal production remained above 245,000 tons per day. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be a decline in the future. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coal mines continued to accumulate at a high level, with pressure to reduce prices and sell. The port inventory decreased rapidly, and the downstream inventory was at a low level. Coal prices are still in a downward trend. High supply, high imports, and high inventory are the main factors causing the decline in coal prices. It is recommended to continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts[5]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures' main contract oscillated. Spot traders mainly replenished stocks, and the willingness for speculative inventory was limited. Fundamentally, ferrosilicon production increased slightly month - on - month. After previous production cuts, the supply pressure was relieved, and factory inventories stopped increasing and started to decline. However, the overall inventory was still at a medium - high level. On the demand side, hot metal production remained high, steel mill profits were restored, and the social inventory of finished products increased while the apparent demand reached a peak and then declined. Attention should be paid to the subsequent marginal changes in exports. In non - steel demand, the pre - holiday inventory reduction of metal iron manufacturers supported prices, but downstream demand and procurement were low. At the same time, although overseas quotations were high, the trading volume decreased, and buyers had limited acceptance of high prices. In terms of cost, the price of semi - coke remained stable. With low inventory and reduced supply, the supply - demand contradiction was limited. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will oscillate in the short term[7]. Ferromanganese - The ferromanganese price continued to oscillate and explore downward, without macro - level fluctuations. Fundamentally, ferromanganese continued to cut production. Currently, the loss of manufacturers in Ningxia has deepened, and the production enthusiasm continued to weaken. Some factories in Inner Mongolia will conduct routine inspections, and most factories in Guangxi still maintain production and load reduction. With the arrival of the wet season in Yunnan, production increased slightly. On the demand side, hot metal production remained high, steel mill profits were restored, and the social inventory of finished products increased while the apparent demand reached a peak and then declined. Attention should be paid to the subsequent marginal changes in exports. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory still decreased significantly under production cuts, and the supply - demand contradiction deepened further. In terms of manganese ore, the global manganese ore shipments decreased month - on - month, and the short - term arrival volume remained high. The seaborne inventory of non - mainstream mines in China was at a high level. Currently, the import profit of port traders was negative, and manganese ore was under the pressure of negative feedback and potential supply release. It is expected that the ferromanganese price will oscillate weakly in the short term[7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Price and Spread - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in various regions decreased, and the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts also declined. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed[1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of billets decreased, and the costs of various steel production processes changed. The profits of different regions and varieties of steel increased[1]. Production and Inventory - The average daily hot metal production increased slightly, and the production of five major steel products decreased. The inventory of five major steel products increased, and the inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coils also increased[1]. Apparent Demand - The apparent demand for steel decreased significantly, including the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils[1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The costs of different types of iron ore warehouse receipts decreased, and the prices and spreads of futures contracts changed. The spot prices of iron ore in ports decreased, and the prices of price indices increased slightly[3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports, global shipments, and monthly national import volume decreased[3]. Demand - The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills, the average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports, monthly national pig iron production, and monthly national crude steel production increased[3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports decreased slightly, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased[3]. Coke Price and Spread - The spot prices of coke in various regions remained unchanged, and the prices of coke futures contracts decreased. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed. The coking profit increased significantly[5]. Supply - The average daily production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly[5]. Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased slightly[5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased, and the inventories of coking plants, steel mills, and ports all decreased[5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The supply - demand gap of coke increased negatively, indicating a more serious oversupply situation[5]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The spot prices of coking coal in various regions remained unchanged, and the prices of coking coal futures contracts decreased. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed. The profit of sample coal mines decreased slightly[5]. Supply - The production of domestic coal mines increased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased. The import profit of seaborne coal was negative[5]. Demand - The demand for coking coal was mainly on - demand procurement, and hot metal production remained high[5]. Inventory - The inventory of coal mines continued to accumulate at a high level, the port inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory was at a low level[5]. Ferrosilicon Price and Spread - The price of the ferrosilicon futures' main contract increased slightly, and the spot prices in some regions remained unchanged while others decreased. The spread between the ferrosilicon and ferromanganese main contracts decreased[7]. Cost and Profit - The costs of ferrosilicon production in different regions remained stable, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased[7]. Supply - The weekly production of ferrosilicon increased, and the operating rate of production enterprises increased[7]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the production and operating rate of ferrosilicon - chromium decreased[7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased, and the average number of available days for downstream ferrosilicon decreased[7]. Ferromanganese Price and Spread - The price of the ferromanganese futures' main contract increased significantly, and the spot prices in various regions decreased. The spreads between different regions and the main contract changed[7]. Cost and Profit - The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port changed, and the costs of ferromanganese production in different regions decreased slightly[7]. Supply - The global manganese ore shipments increased slightly, the arrival volume increased significantly, and the port inventory decreased[7]. Demand - The weekly production of ferromanganese decreased, and the operating rate decreased. The demand for ferromanganese from steel mills remained high[7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the average number of available days for ferromanganese increased[7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and rising high, with the military sector remaining hot. The bond market is expected to be volatile and may strengthen in the medium term. The prices of precious metals are under pressure in the short term but may rise in the long term. The shipping index is expected to have a seasonal peak, and the prices of non-ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macroeconomics [2][6][9] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market opened low and rose high, with major indices rising. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, but all had negative basis. The A-share trading volume decreased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. It is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options or go long on the June IM contract [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed higher, and the yields of major interest rate bonds decreased. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital interest rate decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the capital interest rate, fundamentals, and tariff negotiations [5][6] Precious Metals - Gold prices fell significantly due to the easing of trade risks and the outflow of long funds. Silver prices were relatively stable. In the long term, gold prices may rise due to economic recession risks and diversification needs. In the short term, they are under pressure due to the improvement of risk appetite. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral operations or sell out-of-the-money call options [9][10][11] Container Shipping Index - The quotes of leading shipping companies were relatively stable. The SCFIS European line index decreased, while the US West line index increased. The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was weak. It is recommended to go long on the August contract or widen the August - June spread [12][13] Commodity Futures Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper decreased, and the premium decreased. The supply was affected by the accident at the Antamina copper mine, and the demand was stable. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 77,500 - 78,500 [13][16][18] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc increased, but the trading volume was poor. The supply of zinc ore was loose, but the production of refined zinc was affected by maintenance. The demand was weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 21,500 - 23,500 [18][19][21] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin increased, and the trading volume increased slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, but the supply is expected to recover. The demand was improved by policies, but the outlook is pessimistic. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds [21][22][23] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel decreased, and the trading volume was average. The supply of nickel ore was tight, and the price of nickel iron decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 122,000 - 128,000 [23][26] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel was stable, and the trading volume was poor. The supply was excessive, and the demand was slowly recovering. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [27][29] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume was light. The supply increased, and the demand was average. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 63,000 - 68,000 [31][34] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price of steel decreased, and the production was high. The demand decreased during the May Day holiday, and the inventory increased. The profit of blast furnace steel mills was stable, while that of electric furnace steel mills was in loss. It is recommended to wait and see in unilateral operations and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of going long on steel and short on raw materials [35][36] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The demand for iron ore was high, but the supply increased. The inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the policy and the terminal demand of steel products [37][38] - **Coke**: The spot price of coke had demand support, but the second price increase was blocked. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [39][40][41] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The supply was high, and the demand was average. The inventory was high. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [42][44] - **Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron was stable, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [45][46] - **Manganese Silicon**: The spot price of manganese silicon decreased, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased slightly. The inventory increased. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [48][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The price of US soybeans fluctuated, and the price of domestic soybean meal followed weakly. The domestic soybean meal market price was mixed, and the trading volume increased. The supply of US soybeans was sufficient, and the domestic soybean arrival was abundant. It is recommended to pay attention to the support near 2,900 [51][53] - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs fluctuated slightly. The supply of hogs was stable, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the performance of secondary fattening and slaughter [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was strong, and the price was in a high - level shock. The supply of corn was tight, and the demand was limited. The price is expected to be supported in the long term but may be under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [57][58] - **Sugar**: The price of raw sugar fluctuated weakly, and the domestic sugar price followed. The supply of sugar was expected to increase, and the domestic supply - demand situation was loose. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds in the medium - long term [59]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but rose throughout the day, while the CSI 300 Energy Index experienced a slight decline of 0.31%, closing at 2091.25 points with a trading volume of 3.741 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The CSI 300 Energy Index has increased by 5.18% over the past month, decreased by 5.26% over the last three months, and has fallen by 13.60% year-to-date [1] - The CSI 300 Industry Index series categorizes 300 sample stocks into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries, providing analytical tools for investors [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 Energy Index are: China Shenhua (24.96%), China Petroleum (17.91%), China Petrochemical (16.29%), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (14.81%), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (10.27%), Yanzhou Coal Mining (4.37%), China Coal Energy (3.64%), Shanxi Coking Coal (3.59%), Lu'an Environmental Energy (2.59%), and CNOOC Services (1.56%) [1] - In terms of industry composition, coal accounts for 50.37%, integrated oil and gas companies for 34.20%, fuel refining for 10.27%, coke for 3.59%, and oilfield services for 1.56% within the index [2] Group 3: Sample Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, but can be modified in the event of temporary adjustments due to changes in the CSI 300 Index samples or special events affecting a sample company's industry classification [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the coke industry Core Insights - The Chinese coke market size is projected to grow from 9,305.3 billion RMB in 2019 to 10,010.23 billion RMB by 2029, indicating a steady increase over the years [9][10] - The apparent consumption of coke in China is expected to rise from 46,526.5 thousand tons in 2019 to 50,051.16 thousand tons by 2029, reflecting a positive consumption trend [10][30] - The average price of coke remains stable at 2,000 RMB per unit from 2019 to 2029, suggesting a consistent pricing strategy in the market [11][34] Market Size Overview - The Chinese coke market size for the years 2023 to 2029 is estimated as follows: - 2023: 9,680.95 billion RMB - 2024: 9,621.41 billion RMB - 2025E: 9,692.09 billion RMB - 2026E: 9,770.53 billion RMB - 2027E: 9,849.71 billion RMB - 2028E: 9,929.62 billion RMB - 2029E: 10,010.23 billion RMB [9] Coke Production - The coke production in China is projected to increase from 47,126.2 thousand tons in 2019 to 50,915.9 thousand tons by 2029, indicating a growth trend in production capacity [14][31] Coke Export and Import - Coke export volume is expected to fluctuate, with 2023 estimated at 879 thousand tons and remaining stable at 868 thousand tons from 2025 to 2029 [19][31] - Coke import volume is projected to decline significantly from 52.3 thousand tons in 2019 to 3.26 thousand tons by 2029, indicating a decreasing reliance on imports [25][32] Apparent Consumption - The apparent consumption of coke is calculated as production minus exports plus imports, with figures showing a gradual increase from 46,526.5 thousand tons in 2019 to 50,051.16 thousand tons by 2029 [10][30] Price Stability - The average price of coke is consistently maintained at 2,000 RMB per unit throughout the forecast period from 2019 to 2029, indicating price stability in the market [11][34]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the coke industry Core Insights - The Chinese coke market size is projected to grow from 9,305.3 billion RMB in 2019 to 10,010.23 billion RMB by 2029, indicating a steady increase over the years [9][10] - The apparent consumption of coke in China is expected to rise from 46,526.5 thousand tons in 2019 to 50,051.16 thousand tons by 2029, reflecting a positive consumption trend [10][30] - The average price of coke has remained stable at 2,000 RMB per unit from 2019 to 2029, suggesting a consistent pricing environment [11][34] Market Size - The Chinese coke market size for the years 2019 to 2029 is as follows: - 2019: 9,305.3 billion RMB - 2020: 9,413.01 billion RMB - 2021: 9,187.2 billion RMB - 2022: 9,300.52 billion RMB - 2023: 9,680.95 billion RMB - 2024: 9,621.41 billion RMB - 2025E: 9,692.09 billion RMB - 2026E: 9,770.53 billion RMB - 2027E: 9,849.71 billion RMB - 2028E: 9,929.62 billion RMB - 2029E: 10,010.23 billion RMB [9] Production Volume - The production volume of coke in China from 2019 to 2029 is projected as follows: - 2019: 47,126.2 thousand tons - 2020: 47,116.1 thousand tons - 2021: 46,445.8 thousand tons - 2022: 47,343.6 thousand tons - 2023: 49,260 thousand tons - 2024: 48,927.25 thousand tons - 2025E: 49,318.67 thousand tons - 2026E: 49,713.22 thousand tons - 2027E: 50,110.92 thousand tons - 2028E: 50,511.81 thousand tons - 2029E: 50,915.9 thousand tons [14][31] Export Volume - The export volume of coke in China from 2019 to 2029 is as follows: - 2019: 652 thousand tons - 2020: 349 thousand tons - 2021: 643 thousand tons - 2022: 892 thousand tons - 2023: 879 thousand tons - 2024: 833.06 thousand tons - 2025E: 868 thousand tons - 2026E: 868 thousand tons - 2027E: 868 thousand tons - 2028E: 868 thousand tons - 2029E: 868 thousand tons [18][19] Import Volume - The import volume of coke in China from 2019 to 2029 is projected as follows: - 2019: 52.3 thousand tons - 2020: 297.97 thousand tons - 2021: 133.2 thousand tons - 2022: 51 thousand tons - 2023: 23.73 thousand tons - 2024: 12.84 thousand tons - 2025E: 9.76 thousand tons - 2026E: 7.42 thousand tons - 2027E: 5.64 thousand tons - 2028E: 4.28 thousand tons - 2029E: 3.26 thousand tons [24][32] Apparent Consumption - The apparent consumption of coke in China from 2019 to 2029 is as follows: - 2019: 46,526.5 thousand tons - 2020: 47,065.07 thousand tons - 2021: 45,936 thousand tons - 2022: 46,502.6 thousand tons - 2023: 48,404.73 thousand tons - 2024: 48,107.03 thousand tons - 2025E: 48,460.43 thousand tons - 2026E: 48,852.64 thousand tons - 2027E: 49,248.56 thousand tons - 2028E: 49,648.09 thousand tons - 2029E: 50,051.16 thousand tons [10][30]

Report Information - Date: May 8, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Each commodity has a specific outlook, such as price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and the impact of macro - economic and industry news [2][4]. Commodity Summaries Precious Metals - **Gold**: Slight progress in Sino - US negotiations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The prices of different gold contracts showed various changes, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings [5][6][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to decline in a volatile manner. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Silver prices also showed fluctuations in different contracts [5][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories limit price declines. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. There are supply - demand changes in the copper market, and some companies' production has increased [11][13]. - **Aluminum**: Prices are under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Some alumina enterprises plan to cut production [14][15]. - **Zinc**: Operating under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Zinc prices and inventory data have changed [16][17]. - **Lead**: Weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating within a range. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19][20]. - **Nickel**: The price range has narrowed, and nickel prices have returned to narrow - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Some Indonesian nickel projects' production capacity utilization is increasing [22][24]. - **Tin**: Prices weakened during the holiday. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [25][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Weak demand, with a weak performance in the futures market. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Panasonic is exiting the solar and energy storage business, affecting the industry [30][32]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price hit a new low since listing. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [30][32]. Energy - related Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The cost center continues to move down, and the inventory build - up pattern restricts price rebounds. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [33][35]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, with wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The central bank has implemented a series of monetary policies [36][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Poor demand expectations, with prices fluctuating at low levels. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [40][41][44]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by macro factors, prices are oscillating widely. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [45][48]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and coking coal is affected by the sentiment of coal terminal desilting, also showing a weak trend. The trend strength of both is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [49][50][52]. - **Steam Coal**: Affected by the sentiment of forced desilting at ports, prices are oscillating weakly. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [53][55]. Other Commodities - **Glass**: The price of glass original sheets is stable. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [56][57][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Positive spread arbitrage between months, with expanding processing margins. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply disruptions and trade negotiations affect the price [60][63][65]. - **PTA**: Long PTA and short SC. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The supply - demand pattern is changing, with some device maintenance [60][64][66]. - **MEG**: Long PTA and short MEG. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply is expected to increase, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory [60][66][67]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Vietnam's rubber export situation is changing, and the new supply is expected to increase gradually [68][70][72].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trend of "anti-involution" in various industries as reflected in the capital expenditure to depreciation ratio, indicating a shift towards more conservative investment strategies in response to market conditions [1]. Group 1: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry has seen a significant reduction in the capital expenditure to depreciation ratio, dropping from 5.17 in 2022 to 2.37 in 2023, and further to a historical low of 1.77 in 2024, indicating a controlled expansion of capacity [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, major companies like CATL reported a 6.19% revenue growth, while EVE Energy experienced a 37.34% increase, confirming the industry's recovery [2]. Group 2: Silicon Material and Wafer Industry - The silicon material and wafer industry has drastically reduced its capital expenditure to depreciation ratio from 4.1 in 2023 to 1.94 in 2024, marking a historical low due to significant losses [4][5]. - Leading company Tongwei Co. reported an 18.58% revenue decline in Q1 2025, with a negative gross margin of -2.88%, indicating ongoing challenges in the industry [5]. Group 3: Special Steel Industry - The special steel industry saw its capital expenditure to depreciation ratio decrease from 0.93 in 2023 to 0.57 in 2024, suggesting a contraction in capacity but still maintaining profitability among major players [7]. - In 2024, China imported 2.555 million tons of special steel, valued at $5.248 billion, highlighting ongoing demand in high-end steel products [7]. Group 4: Organic Silicon Industry - The organic silicon industry experienced a decline in its capital expenditure to depreciation ratio from 6.98 in 2023 to 1.76 in 2024, indicating a slowdown in capacity expansion [10]. - In Q1 2025, leading company Hoshine Silicon reported a gross margin drop to 14.62%, the lowest in its history, reflecting the industry's ongoing struggles [10]. Group 5: Titanium Dioxide Industry - The titanium dioxide industry faced low prices in 2024, with a capital expenditure to depreciation ratio of 0.78, indicating a contraction in capacity [12]. - Leading company Longbai Group showed signs of stabilization in Q1 2025, with a slight recovery in gross margin, although demand remains uncertain due to external factors [12]. Group 6: Coking Industry - The coking industry is experiencing significant challenges, with a capital expenditure to depreciation ratio of 1.18 in 2024, despite being at a historical low price point [16]. - Leading company Shanxi Coking has reported negative gross margins for ten consecutive quarters, indicating persistent difficulties in the sector [16]. Group 7: Glass Fiber Industry - The glass fiber industry reported a capital expenditure to depreciation ratio of 1.45 in 2024, down from 2.3 in the previous year, suggesting a nearing of historical lows [17]. - Major player China Jushi saw a substantial increase in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, indicating a clear recovery trend [17]. Group 8: Inorganic Salt Industry - The inorganic salt industry faced continuous price declines, with a capital expenditure to depreciation ratio of 1.06 in 2024, indicating a contraction in capacity [21]. - Leading company Sinochem International reported a gross margin of 9.48% in Q1 2025, the lowest since its listing, reflecting ongoing challenges [21]. Group 9: Inverter Industry - The inverter industry has seen a significant drop in its capital expenditure to depreciation ratio from previous years, now at 4.43 in 2024, indicating a slowdown in expansion [23]. - The industry is experiencing a divergence, with leading companies like Sungrow continuing to perform well, while smaller firms face losses [23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance of the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Energy Index, which has seen a decline of 7.31% in the past month, 8.77% in the past three months, and 10.93% year-to-date [1] - The top ten holdings of the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Energy Index include China National Offshore Oil (41.44%), PetroChina (17.49%), China Shenhua Energy (13.95%), Sinopec (13.62%), and others, indicating a concentration in a few major companies [1] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of different industries in the Hong Kong market, with a base date of December 31, 2004, set at 1000.0 points [1] Group 2 - The market segments represented in the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Energy Index are entirely from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with fuel refining accounting for 42.01%, integrated oil and gas companies for 31.12%, and coal for 24.17% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December, ensuring that the weight factors are updated accordingly [2] - Adjustments to the index samples occur in response to special events affecting the companies, such as mergers or delistings, ensuring the index remains reflective of the current market landscape [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel - Market sentiment is recovering, with weekly data showing a slight increase in the output of five major steel products and continued inventory reduction. The current situation is tight, but the outlook is weak. Low inventory supports steel prices, and if demand expectations improve, low inventory can provide upward momentum for absolute prices. The recommended trading range for rebar is 3100 - 3300 yuan/ton, and for hot-rolled coils is 3200 - 3400 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on long steel and short raw material arbitrage operations [1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated, and the price is still under pressure in the short term. Administrative production cuts still have an impact, but the form and volume of production cuts are undetermined. This week, the daily average pig iron output continued to increase slightly, reaching a high level in the same period of history. The finished products downstream continued to reduce inventory, and steel mills' profits improved, leading to continued production resumption. The future of high production levels depends on the terminal demand. Inventory increased before the festival, and the port inventory slightly accumulated. The iron ore price is expected to continue to be under pressure [3]. Coke - The second round of spot price increases for coke before the festival faced resistance and is currently in a negotiation stage. Considering the weakening of coking coal, the second round of price increases may not be realized. After the festival, the ex-factory price of coke will remain stable in the short term, and the port trading price will be slightly weak. The supply side is increasing production due to good orders, and the demand side is supported by high pig iron production. However, the weak coking coal, overcapacity, and lack of pricing power of coke enterprises are the main reasons for the weak decline of coke prices. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of long hot-rolled coils and short coke and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts [5]. Coking Coal - After the festival, the supply-demand situation remains loose in the short term. The supply side includes continued production resumption of domestic mines and reduced imports of Mongolian coal. The demand side shows that downstream users are replenishing inventory, but mainly on a need-to basis. The inventory of mines is high, and the port inventory is decreasing. High supply, high imports, and high inventory are the main reasons for the decline in coal prices. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of long hot-rolled coils and short coking coal and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts [5]. Ferrosilicon - The main contract of ferrosilicon futures fell significantly, mainly due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April. The supply pressure has been relieved after previous production cuts, and the factory inventory has stopped increasing and started to decline, but the overall inventory is still at a medium to high level. The demand side shows an increase in pig iron production, and the non-steel demand has improved seasonally. The export growth in March is considered unsustainable. The cost side is stable, but the electricity price needs further monitoring. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will be slightly weak in the short term [6]. Ferromanganese - The main contract of ferromanganese continued to decline, mainly due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April. The production reduction continued during the holiday, and the output increased slightly. The demand side is supported by high pig iron production, but the sustainability depends on the terminal demand. The manganese ore market is under pressure, with a decline in global shipments and high arrival volumes. It is expected that the ferromanganese price will fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showed different trends in different regions and contracts. The basis of some contracts changed [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and some steel products decreased, and the profit of some steel products also decreased [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output and the output of five major steel products increased, with a significant increase in the electric furnace output of rebar [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products, rebar, and hot-rolled coils decreased [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The trading volume of building materials decreased, but the apparent demand of five major steel products, rebar, and hot-rolled coils increased [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot increased slightly, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed [3]. - **Supply**: The arrival volume at 45 ports, global shipments, and national monthly imports decreased [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output, 45-port daily average ore removal volume, national monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The 45-port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased [3]. Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads changed. The second round of spot price increases faced resistance [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of coking plants and steel mills increased [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output increased, and the inventory and available days of steel mills' coke increased [5]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased slightly, the coking plant inventory decreased, and the port inventory decreased [5]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads changed. The market coal auction was cold after a short recovery [5]. - **Supply**: The production of domestic mines increased, and the import of Mongolian coal decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The coke output increased slightly, and the downstream users replenished inventory [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of mines was high, the port inventory decreased, and the inventory of downstream users was at a low level [5]. Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the main contract of ferrosilicon decreased, and the spot prices in some regions decreased. The basis and spreads changed [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in some regions decreased, and the production profit in some regions changed [6]. - **Supply**: The output of ferrosilicon remained stable, and the production enterprise's operating rate decreased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand remained stable, the pig iron output increased, and the steel output increased [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased, and the average available days of downstream users decreased [6]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the main contract of ferromanganese decreased, and the spot prices remained stable. The basis and spreads changed [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in some regions decreased slightly, and the production profit remained stable [6]. - **Supply**: The production of ferromanganese decreased slightly, and the operating rate decreased [6]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand increased slightly, and the procurement volume of steel mills remained stable [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the average available days increased [6]. - **Manganese Ore**: The global manganese ore shipment decreased, the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory increased [6].

焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/5/6 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1376.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 54.19 | -32.33% 高炉开工率 | 92.00 | | 0.40 | 2.37 | 7.56% | | 河北准一湿熄 | 1655.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 180.00 | -28.04% 铁水日均产量 | 245.42 | | 1.07 | 6.69 | 6.39% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1570.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | -32.91% 盘面05 | 1590 | 21.50 | 0.00 | 1.50 | -28.86% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1610.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | -32.35% 盘面09 | 1546.5 | -6.50 | -40. ...