Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Rubber Industry**: Supply is affected by rainy seasons and typhoons, and future supply expectations suppress raw material prices. Downstream tire factories' pre - holiday restocking is mostly completed, and inventory reduction has slowed. Demand is lackluster with sub - optimal sales performance. The 01 contract range is 15000 - 16500, and follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output during the peak season in major producing areas [1]. - **Log Industry**: Logs are in an oscillatory pattern. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, attention should be paid to whether the shipment volume improves. In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [3]. - **Glass and Soda Ash Industry**: Soda ash has a fundamental oversupply problem, and the inventory has shifted to the middle and lower reaches. In the medium - term, demand will continue the previous rigid pattern. It is recommended to hold short positions. Glass prices were driven up by rumors, and the spot market is expected to improve in the short - term, but the mid - stream inventory in some areas is high, and the long - term outlook depends on capacity clearance [4]. - **Polysilicon Industry**: The supply - side regulation is ineffective, and the industry has over - capacity. Downstream component inventory is high, and prices are unstable. Before the National Day holiday, polysilicon prices will oscillate within the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Industrial Silicon Industry**: From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon increases, and the balance turns loose. The price is expected to oscillate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the fourth - quarter production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and Sichuan and Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises [6]. Summary by Directory Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 24, the price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton, and the full - latex basis increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 820 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, Thailand's rubber production increased by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, while India's and China's decreased. In August, domestic tire production increased by 9.10%, and exports decreased by 5.46% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95%, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 3.07% [1]. Log Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 25, the 2511 log contract closed at 803 yuan/cubic meter, down 2 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged [3]. - **Cost and Import**: The import theoretical cost increased slightly, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was stable [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 19, the total national coniferous log inventory decreased by 100,000 cubic meters. The daily log shipment volume decreased by 3100 cubic meters as of September 12. This week, the number of expected arriving ships from New Zealand increased by 4, and the arrival volume increased by 126,000 cubic meters [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On September 26, the prices in North China, Central China, and South China increased slightly, and the prices of the 2505 and 2509 contracts increased by 3.35% and 2.52% respectively [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices in all regions remained unchanged, and the prices of the 2505 and 2509 contracts increased by 2.42% and 1.84% respectively [4]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash production and glass melting volume decreased slightly. Glass factory inventory and soda ash factory inventory decreased, while soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased [4]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4]. Polysilicon Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 24, the average price of N - type re - feed decreased by 0.28%, and the N - type material basis decreased by 53.14% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract price increased by 2.23%, and the spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased significantly [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64%, and monthly production increased by 23.31%. Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 0.29%, and monthly production increased by 6.24% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% [5]. Industrial Silicon Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 24, the prices of various types of industrial silicon remained mostly unchanged, and the basis of some types decreased [6]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads between some contracts changed slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Monthly national industrial silicon production increased by 14.01%, and the export volume increased by 3.56%. The production of related industries such as organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 1.07%, and the social inventory increased by 0.74% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is in high - level consolidation. The supply side has potential disturbances, and the short - term silicon price may maintain high - level consolidation, but there is a risk of a subsequent decline. For polysilicon, the price is also in high - level consolidation, and it is difficult for the spot price to rise further in the short term due to high downstream raw material inventories [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Data**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.06% to 9,020 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production, and the start - up rate in the southwest region has steadily increased. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, some silicon material plants have复产 plans, organic silicon supply has tightened and then recovered, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt interval operation and continue to hold out - of - the - money put options [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Data**: N - type dense material fell 0.29% to 51 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material fell 0.28% to 52.5 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material fell 0.30% to 50 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained flat at 49.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.23% to 51,380 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises are still reducing production, and some may have new capacity put into operation, with a slight increase in expected output. On the demand side, trading volume has increased significantly, inventory has decreased, but terminal demand pressure is large, and component price increases face resistance [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Before the supply - side reform policy is implemented, try to go long on dips with a light position [1]. Industry News - On the evening of September 24, Xinjiang Dongfang Hope New Energy Co., Ltd. started the annual routine maintenance of its first - phase polysilicon production line, and its third - phase project is ready for shutdown and maintenance. This is expected to have a positive impact on product quality and production stability, and will not have a major impact on overall supply [1]. - On September 23, the winning bid results of the first - batch photovoltaic module procurement framework (third tender) of a technology company from 2025 - 2026 were announced, with winning bid prices ranging from 0.71 - 0.76 yuan/W [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of the main contract of polysilicon fluctuated. The closing price of PS2511 was 51,380 yuan/ton, up 2.41%, with a trading volume of 242,016 lots and an open interest of 111,187 lots, a net decrease of 4,904 lots. The closing price of PS2601 was 53,425 yuan/ton, up 2.27%, with a trading volume of 41,433 lots and an open interest of 33,020 lots, a net increase of 246 lots [4]. - Before the holiday, the market entered a policy vacuum period. As the long - holiday approached, the risk preference of funds decreased. However, after the futures price tested the rigid support of the spot price at the lower end of the range and then rebounded, the oscillation pattern between 48,000 - 55,000 remained unchanged. The transaction price range of n - type re -投料 was 51,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton. The improvement of the fundamentals after the long - holiday requires greater policy support. The planned monthly output of 100,000 tons is not enough to drive the industry chain to fully destock, and policy drive is more important [4]. - With the strict implementation of the new energy - consumption standard, the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon will be substantially improved. After the adjustment of the existing production - capacity structure, the effective domestic polysilicon production capacity will drop to about 2.4 million tons/year, a decrease of 16.4% compared with the end of 2024 and a decrease of 31.4% compared with the installed production capacity [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market performance: The price of the main contract of polysilicon fluctuated. PS2511 closed at 51,380 yuan/ton, up 2.41%, with a trading volume of 242,016 lots and an open interest of 111,187 lots, a net decrease of 4,904 lots. PS2601 closed at 53,425 yuan/ton, up 2.27%, with a trading volume of 41,433 lots and an open interest of 33,020 lots, a net increase of 246 lots [4]. - Future outlook: Before the holiday, it entered a policy vacuum period. As the long - holiday approached, the risk preference of funds decreased. The futures price tested the rigid support of the spot price at the lower end of the range and then rebounded. The oscillation pattern between 48,000 - 55,000 remained unchanged. The transaction price range of n - type re -投料 was 51,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton. The improvement of the fundamentals after the long - holiday requires greater policy support. The planned monthly output of 100,000 tons is not enough to drive the industry chain to fully destock, and policy drive is more important [4]. 3.2 Market News - On September 24, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 7,850 lots, a decrease of 20 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. - According to the Notice on Improving the Price Mechanism to Promote the Proximity Consumption of New - energy Power Generation, the power source of proximity - consumption projects should be connected to the user side at the demarcation point between the user and the public - power grid property. The proportion of the annual self - generated electricity of new energy to the total available generated electricity should be no less than 60%, and the proportion to the total electricity consumption should be no less than 30%, and no less than 35% for new projects starting from 2030. The project should have the condition of sub - meter measurement, and the power - grid enterprise should install measurement devices at the power - generation, plant - power - consumption, grid - connection, self - use, and energy - storage junctions to accurately measure the electricity data of each link [5]. - The number of domestic polysilicon producers in operation remained at 10, with one enterprise's maintenance expected to end at the end of September and resume normal production in early October [5]. - On September 16, the Standardization Administration of China issued the draft for comments on three mandatory national standards, including the Energy - Consumption Quotas per Unit Product of Polysilicon and Germanium. After the formal implementation of this standard, enterprises whose energy consumption per unit product of polysilicon fails to meet the benchmark value requirement (6.4 kgce/kg) will be required to make rectifications within a time limit. Enterprises that fail to make rectifications within the time limit or fail to meet the access value (5.5 kgce/kg) after rectification will be shut down. After the adjustment of the existing production - capacity structure, the effective domestic polysilicon production capacity will drop to about 2.4 million tons/year, a decrease of 16.4% compared with the end of 2024 and a decrease of 31.4% compared with the installed production capacity [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including finance, commodities, and shipping, providing insights into market trends, news events, and investment suggestions for different assets [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US new home sales in August reached an annualized 800,000 units, significantly above expectations. The US and EU finalized a 15% tariff agreement, leading to a gold price correction of over 1% and a strong rise in the US dollar index [12][13] - Short - term gold prices face a correction risk due to profit - taking, and investors are advised to reduce positions before the holiday [14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Intel is seeking investment and cooperation from Apple, and the US has officially lowered tariffs on EU cars. Fed official Daly's remarks indicate uncertainty in future interest rate cuts [15][16][17] - While there may be short - term disturbances due to valuation concerns, an overall bullish approach is recommended [18] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - South Korea's president met with the US Treasury Secretary, and the UK central bank has internal policy differences. The US has reduced tariffs on EU cars to 15%, and the US dollar is expected to trade in a short - term range [20][21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Eight departments jointly issued a document to promote digital consumption, and Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure. The STAR Market has strengthened, driving the broader market up. The current market is rising on low volume, and investors are advised to take partial profits [22][23][24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation and a 401.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market has declined due to tightened liquidity and rising stock markets. A strategy of holding a steepening curve is recommended [25][26][28] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market anticipates that the USDA's weekly export sales report will show a net increase of 60 - 160 tons in US soybean exports. China is rumored to continue purchasing Argentine soybeans, and ANEC has lowered Brazil's September soybean export forecast [29] - The bearish impact of Argentina's export tax exemption may be fully reflected in the price, and the price is expected to trade in a range. Continued attention should be paid to policy changes [29] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's July palm oil exports decreased, and production and inventory increased. The oil market rebounded slightly, but the short - term rebound space is limited. Investors are advised to wait and see or take small long positions [30][31] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Korea has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Japanese carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils. Global crude steel production in August increased slightly year - on - year. Steel prices have rebounded, but the upward space is restricted by fundamentals. A range - bound approach is recommended before the holiday, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand [32][33][35] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn starch production rate has increased, and inventory has decreased. The current inventory pressure is manageable, and the price difference between rice and flour may be undervalued. Buying to widen the spread may have a safety margin [36][37] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn inventory at the four northern ports has decreased. The price of the 11 - contract has rebounded, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. The 11 - contract is expected to decline more than the 01 - contract after the holiday [37][38] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal at northern ports has remained stable. After the pre - holiday restocking, the coal price is expected to trade in a range around the long - term agreement price [39] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - Some jujubes in Xinjiang are starting to wrinkle, and there are still some green fruits. The futures price is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the development of jujubes in the production area and the purchasing situation in the sales area [40][41] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - SNIM plans to increase iron ore production by 2031 and has discovered new resources. The terminal finished product inventory has some pressure, but the raw material side is strong. The iron ore price is expected to be well - supported, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and inventory [43] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Orient Hope is conducting maintenance on its polysilicon production line. The polysilicon price is expected to be stable in October. The short - term futures price is expected to trade in a wide range between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [44][48] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China's August import and export data of primary polysiloxane showed mixed trends. The price of industrial silicon is expected to trade between 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but chasing the price up should be done with caution [49][50] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The global copper market had a supply surplus of 101,000 tons from January to July. Grasberg copper mine's accident will lead to a significant production loss, and the copper price is expected to rise in the short term. A short - term long strategy is recommended [51][54][55] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Trump administration is seeking to acquire up to 10% of Lithium Americas. The short - term price may be supported by pre - holiday restocking, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. A short - term cautious approach and a medium - term short - selling strategy are recommended [56][57] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has suspended 190 mining enterprises, including 39 nickel mines. The nickel price lacks upward momentum, but it has long - term investment value. A positive spread arbitrage opportunity is recommended [58][59] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market is in a deep contango. The domestic lead market is expected to trade in a bullish range. A strategy of buying on dips and a positive spread arbitrage strategy are recommended [60][61] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market has a high cash concentration, and the domestic zinc market is under pressure from the exchange rate. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading, and a positive spread arbitrage strategy is recommended [61][62] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price in East China has declined. The price is expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term [63][66][67] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased, and a Russian refinery was attacked. The oil price is expected to be affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term [68][69][70] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The terminal demand for PX has improved structurally, but the PX market is expected to trade in a weak range in the short term [71][73][74] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA market has seen a partial increase in sales, but the short - term outlook is weak. The price is expected to trade in a weak range [75][76][77] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - Urea inventory has increased. The supply pressure is rising, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the export situation and the price range of the 2601 contract [78][79] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has declined locally. The market is expected to be stable, and the downward space of the futures price is limited [80][81][82] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is stable. The market is expected to trade in a weak range due to poor fundamentals [83][84][85] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market price is oscillating in a narrow range. The fundamentals are weak, but the low price limits the downward space. Attention should be paid to domestic policy support [86] 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory's export price has increased slightly. The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and attention should be paid to production cuts and new capacity [90][91] 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market price is stable. A strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [92][93] 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass market price in Shandong is stable. The futures price has risen due to policy expectations, but the fundamental pressure may limit the upward space. A long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy is recommended [94] 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The China - Europe Railway Express has resumed operation. The container freight rate futures market is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see or short - selling strategy for the October contract is recommended [95][96]

Core Viewpoint - A significant industry reshuffle is occurring in the polysilicon sector, driven by new energy consumption standards that will force inefficient producers out of the market [1][5]. Group 1: New Energy Consumption Standards - The National Standardization Administration has released draft standards for polysilicon and silicon products, setting strict energy consumption limits [1]. - The new standards require polysilicon production to meet a maximum energy consumption of 6.4 kgce/kg, with a target of 5.5 kgce/kg for compliance, significantly tightening previous limits [1][2]. - Non-compliant companies will face mandatory rectification periods, with potential shutdowns for those failing to meet the new standards [2][4]. Group 2: Impact on Industry Capacity - Following the implementation of the new standards, domestic polysilicon effective capacity is expected to decrease to approximately 2.4 million tons per year, a reduction of 16.4% from 2024 projections [2]. - The new standards could lead to the shutdown of over 30% of existing industry capacity, alleviating the current overcapacity situation [2][4]. - Most of the current excess capacity is already inactive, and the 12-month transition period will have minimal short-term supply impact [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Leading companies like GCL-Poly and Tongwei are expected to benefit from the new standards due to their technological advantages [3][5]. - GCL-Poly's granular silicon energy consumption meets the new first-level standard, while Tongwei's energy consumption is close to the second-level standard [3]. - The tightening of energy consumption standards is seen as a measure to combat the "involution" in the industry, promoting quality over quantity [4][5]. Group 4: Policy and Industry Response - The government and industry associations are implementing a comprehensive governance system addressing energy consumption, pricing, and capacity [5]. - A voluntary production control agreement has been signed by leading photovoltaic glass companies to collectively reduce production by 30% [5]. - The new energy consumption standards are viewed as a clear survival line for polysilicon companies, with a critical choice for those lagging behind to either invest in upgrades or exit the market [5].

Market Overview - The A-share market has experienced a significant increase in market capitalization, growing by 35 trillion yuan and surpassing 105 trillion yuan since the "9.24" market event last year [1] - The number of stocks priced over 100 yuan has increased by 347%, while the number of stocks priced below 5 yuan has halved [1] - The average stock price increase, excluding new stocks, is 86.2%, with a median increase of 60.6% [1] - Approximately 1,504 stocks have doubled in value, accounting for nearly 28% of the market [1] - The ETF market has seen a nearly 90% increase in net asset value, with technology-focused ETFs, particularly those related to semiconductor innovation, leading the market with close to 200% growth [1] New Listings and Fundraising - In August, eight new companies were listed in the domestic market, raising a total of 6.463 billion yuan, with no companies delisted [2] - Since the beginning of the year, 11 A+H shares have been added, and over 70 domestic companies have listed overseas [2] Energy Sector - In August, the national electricity market trading volume reached 6,550 billion kWh, marking an 11.6% year-on-year increase [2] - Green electricity trading volume in August was 249 billion kWh, up 47.2% year-on-year [2] - From January to August, the cumulative electricity market trading volume was 43,442 billion kWh, a 7.0% increase year-on-year, accounting for 63.2% of total electricity consumption, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] Silicon Production - Domestic polysilicon production is expected to be around 130,000 tons in September, with a forecasted decline in production for October due to excess supply compared to downstream demand [3] - The market price for polysilicon remains stable, with a price index of 52.44 yuan/kg [3] DRAM Market - The DRAM market is expected to see continued price increases in Q4, driven by strong server demand and prioritization of advanced process capacity for high-end server DRAM and HBM [3] - Conventional DRAM prices are projected to increase by 8%-13%, with HBM included, the increase could reach 13%-18% [3] Corporate Developments - Hualing Cable plans to acquire Anhui San Zhu Intelligent Technology Co., with the acquisition still in the intention stage and subject to uncertainty [6] - Xibu Superconducting has completed multiple rectifications in response to regulatory measures from the Shaanxi Securities Regulatory Bureau [7] - Yuegui Co. has successfully acquired mining rights for quartzite in Guangdong for 222 million yuan, with a production capacity of 2.6 million tons per year [8] - Jindalai plans to use up to 450 million yuan of idle funds for low-risk financial products [10] - Xindian Software intends to repurchase shares worth between 30 million and 50 million yuan [11] - Sinopec Oilfield Services has signed a contract worth 359 million USD for an oilfield project in Iraq [12] - Linyang Energy has won a smart meter project from the State Grid worth approximately 142 million yuan [13] - Wanhui High-tech expects a net profit increase of 69.81% to 109.77% for the first three quarters of 2025 [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market remains strong due to expectations of future US liquidity easing, but there are still risks of stagflation in the US and geopolitical conflicts. In the long - term, there is a tendency for global asset allocation to shift towards gold, and short - term fluctuations can be dealt with by a low - buying strategy [2][3]. - The copper market is affected by macro factors and fundamentals. The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and domestic production has declined. The consumption is weak in the peak season, and short - term copper prices are expected to be in a high - level consolidation [5][9][11]. - The alumina market shows a weakening trend. The domestic and overseas spot prices are falling, and the import window is slightly open. The bauxite in Guinea has an incremental expectation, and the fundamentals are weak [13][16]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a stable and slightly strong alloy ingot spot price. The enterprises in some regions are preparing raw materials for the National Day holiday, and the downstream demand is picking up [18]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by macro factors and supply - demand. The price is expected to be weak in the short term until the consumption side improves significantly [22][25]. - The zinc market may maintain a slight surplus in September. The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly, and the downstream has a replenishment expectation, but the amplitude is limited. The overseas inventory reduction may support the price, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [27][30]. - The lead market has mixed long and short factors. The supply may increase, and the downstream may stock up before the holiday. The lead price is expected to oscillate at a high level [32][34]. - The nickel market is slightly boosted by the Indonesian policy, but the impact on the supply is limited. The net import is expected to decline, and the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [36][37]. - The stainless steel market has a supply pressure as the production has increased significantly in September, but the inventory is slowly decreasing, and the cost support is strong. It is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [39][41]. - The industrial silicon market has a "low - at - both - ends, high - in - the - middle" inventory structure. The production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment have a greater impact on the price. It is recommended to participate in long positions [43]. - The polysilicon market has a short - term negative impact on the futures due to the rumor of production resumption. The best strategy is to participate in long positions after the price correction [45][46][47]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a stalemate. The supply increment is limited in the short term, and the demand is strong. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term but will generally maintain an oscillating pattern [48][51][52]. - The tin market has a high - level oscillation. The supply is still tight, and the demand is sluggish. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [57][58]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold hit a new high above $3790 and then fell back, closing up 0.46% at $3764.02 per ounce. London silver first rose and then fell, closing down 0.07% at $44.02 per ounce. The Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts also had corresponding price changes [2]. - The US dollar index oscillated above 97, closing down 0.08% at 97.22. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.11%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was in a high - level consolidation, closing at 7.1119 [2]. Important资讯 - The Fed officials had different views on interest rates. Powell thought the policy rate was still slightly restrictive, and the market expected further interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October and December was high [2]. - The US September PMI data showed that the economy had some resilience. Geopolitical conflicts also had an impact on the market [2]. Logic Analysis - The market expected future US liquidity easing, but there were still stagflation risks and geopolitical conflicts. The precious metals maintained a strong trend, but there were profit - taking signs at high levels [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a low - buying strategy. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Use collar call options [3]. Copper Market Review - The night - session Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 79,970 yuan per ton, up 0.04%. The LME copper closed at $9,993.5 per ton, down 0.08% [5]. - The LME copper inventory decreased by 400 tons to 144,900 tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 1,511 tons to 318,200 tons [5]. Important资讯 - Diplomatic activities were carried out between China and the US. Powell warned about the Fed's dual mission and implied that interest rates were still restrictive [5]. - There were differences within the Fed on future monetary policies. Southern Copper expected stable copper production in Peru this year and had some project plans [5][7][8]. Logic Analysis - Macro factors indicated that interest rates were still restrictive, and the market followed the Fed's statements. Fundamentally, the supply of copper concentrates was tight, and domestic production declined. The consumption was weak in the peak season [9]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term copper prices will be in a high - level consolidation. - Arbitrage: Hold long - short cross - market arbitrage positions. - Options: Wait and see [11]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session alumina 2601 contract decreased by 18 yuan to 2,881 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [13]. Important资讯 - There were some spot transactions in different regions, and the prices decreased. The national alumina production capacity operation increased slightly, and the Australian alumina price decreased. The import and export volume of alumina in August had corresponding changes [13][14]. Logic Analysis - The domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina were falling, and the import window was slightly open. The bauxite in Guinea had an incremental expectation, and the fundamentals were weak [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The alumina price will run weakly. - Arbitrage: Conduct reverse calendar spread arbitrage. - Options: Wait and see [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 40 yuan to 20,270 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions were stable [18]. Important资讯 - A policy on standardizing investment promotion affected the recycled aluminum industry. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots changed, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange launched the standard warehouse receipt generation business for casting aluminum alloy [18]. Trading Logic - Some enterprises in Henan, Jiangxi, and Anhui were preparing raw materials for the National Day holiday. The downstream demand was picking up, and the alloy ingot spot price was stable and slightly strong [18]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The aluminum alloy futures price will oscillate weakly following the aluminum price. - Arbitrage: Long AD and short AL. - Options: Wait and see [20]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 20,670 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [22]. Important资讯 - The euro - zone September manufacturing PMI fell into the contraction range, and the US manufacturing PMI was still in the growth range. The electrolytic aluminum inventory in the main markets decreased. An electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia was expected to be put into production in stages. The import and export volume of aluminum ingots in August had corresponding changes [22][23]. Trading Logic - The Fed was cautious about further interest rate cuts. The European manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range. Domestically, attention should be paid to the downstream's inventory - building sentiment and holiday plans [25]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The aluminum price will be weak in the short term until the consumption side improves. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [25]. Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market decreased by 0.36% to $2,889.5 per ton. The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract decreased by 0.09% to 21,935 yuan per ton [27]. - The spot price in Shanghai was in a certain range, and the trading was not active [27]. Important资讯 - The domestic zinc inventory decreased in some regions and increased in others. Affected by Typhoon "Hagasa", the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises in Guangdong was expected to decline [27][28]. Logic Analysis - The domestic refined zinc supply in September may decrease slightly, but the monthly output was still at a relatively high level. The downstream enterprises bought at low prices, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downstream had a replenishment expectation before the National Day, but the amplitude was limited. The overseas inventory reduction may support the price, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [28][30]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term zinc price will oscillate in a range. Pay attention to the LME inventory change. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [30]. Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market decreased by 0.03% to $1,999 per ton. The Shanghai lead 2511 contract decreased by 0.2% to 17,090 yuan per ton [32]. - The SMM1 lead average price decreased, and the price difference between different regions and types of lead existed. The transaction of recycled refined lead was under pressure [32]. Important资讯 - The SMM lead ingot social inventory decreased. The import volume of lead concentrates in August increased, and the import and export volume of lead - acid batteries decreased [32][33][34]. Logic Analysis - The lead price strengthened, and the loss of domestic recycled lead smelting was repaired. Some enterprises planned to resume production. The downstream lead - storage enterprises may stock up before the holiday. The lead price was expected to oscillate at a high level [34]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term lead price will oscillate at a high level. Try short positions at high prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [34]. Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price increased to $15,340 per ton, and the inventory increased. The Shanghai nickel main contract increased to 121,740 yuan per ton [36]. - The spot premiums of different types of nickel remained unchanged [36]. Important资讯 - Indonesia punished some mining companies, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo was considering extending the cobalt export ban [36]. Logic Analysis - The nickel price was slightly boosted by Indonesia's policy, but the impact on the supply was limited. The net import of refined nickel decreased, and the LME inventory was expected to increase. The positive news from Indonesia and the Philippines supported the nickel ore price, but the upward momentum was insufficient. The nickel price will oscillate in a wide range [37]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [37]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main stainless steel SS2511 contract increased to 12,940 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [39]. Important资讯 - Affected by Typhoon "Hagasa", Foshan implemented "five - stop" measures [39]. Logic Analysis - The stainless steel production in September increased significantly, but the demand did not show seasonal peak - season characteristics. The supply pressure existed, but the inventory was slowly decreasing, and the cost support was strong. The price was expected to oscillate [41]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate in a wide range. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [41]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The Tuesday industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated narrowly, closing down 2.3% at 8,925 yuan per ton. The spot price was stable [43]. Important资讯 - The export volume of industrial silicon products in August increased year - on - year and month - on - month [43]. Comprehensive Analysis - The industrial silicon inventory structure was "low - at - both - ends, high - in - the - middle". The production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment had a greater impact on the price. It was recommended to participate in long positions [43]. Strategy - Unilateral: Participate in long positions. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options. - Arbitrage: None [43]. Polysilicon Market Review - The Tuesday polysilicon futures main contract decreased and then rebounded, closing at 50,260 yuan per ton, down 2.745. The spot price was stable [45][46]. Important资讯 - The August全社会用电量 data was released, showing an increase year - on - year [46]. Comprehensive Analysis - The rumor of polysilicon production resumption in October was a short - term negative factor. The spot price was rising, and the best strategy was to participate in long positions after the price correction [46][47]. Strategy - Unilateral: Participate in long positions after sufficient price correction [47]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2511 contract decreased to 73,660 yuan per ton, and the index position decreased. The GQEX warehouse receipt increased. The spot prices of electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate were stable [48]. Important资讯 - India had requirements for the procurement of components, battery cells, and silicon wafers in the ALMM project. Chile submitted the lease agreement for lithium production [49][51]. Logic Analysis - The lithium price was in a stalemate. The short - term supply increment was limited, and the demand was strong. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term but will generally maintain an oscillating pattern [51]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate in a wide range. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. - Options: Sell wide - straddle options [49][52]. Tin Market Review - The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 271,090 yuan per ton, up 0.31%. The LME tin inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory decreased significantly [54][57]. - The Shanghai metal network spot tin ingot average price decreased. The spot trading atmosphere improved, but the downstream demand was still limited [54]. Important资讯 - Diplomatic activities were carried out between China and the US. Powell warned about the Fed's dual mission, and the Fed officials had different views on interest rates [56]. - An Indonesian tin ore producer planned to increase production next year, and a US tin smelter started construction [57]. Logic Analysis - The Fed had differences on future monetary policies. The tin ore supply was still tight, but there were short - term improvement signs. The demand was sluggish, and the consumption electronics and home appliance industries only slightly recovered. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [57]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a high - level oscillation. - Options: Wait and see [58].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The supply of polysilicon remains flat while demand weakens. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high - level volatility expected. It is recommended to wait and see or consider buying put options [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 51,380 yuan/ton, up 1,120 yuan; the open interest is 111,187 lots, down 4,904 lots. The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,355 yuan, up 150 yuan; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 42,360 yuan/ton, up 1,025 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon is 52,500 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the basis is 1,120 yuan/ton, down 1,270 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.54 dollars/kg, up 0.09 dollars [2]. - **Upstream**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 9,020 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the spot price is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,006 tons, down 164 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.9 dollars/kg, up 0.14 dollars [2]. - **Downstream**: The monthly output of solar cells is 6,9857,000 kilowatts, up 347,500 kilowatts. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 149,022,600 pieces, up 38,589,900 pieces; the monthly import volume is 21,440,200 pieces, up 6,914,600 pieces [2]. 3.2 Industry News - On September 20, the first - phase lithium carbonate project of Luopu Xihai New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. was put into operation. The industry has held multiple polysilicon - related events, including the annual conference of the Silicon Industry Branch and the monthly regular meeting of the Photovoltaic Industry Association. The National Standards Committee has issued a notice on soliciting opinions on 3 mandatory national standards [2]. 3.3 Viewpoint Summary - Short - term supply of polysilicon has little increase. The demand side shows that silicon wafer prices have a slight increase, but downstream enterprises are waiting and watching. Terminal demand is weak, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of the photovoltaic industry chain remains unchanged. The overall market is expected to be in a high - level volatile state [2].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic polysilicon market has seen a decrease in order activity this week, with a reduction in the number of main signing companies to four, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [1]. Group 1: Market Activity - The signing volume of polysilicon has decreased week-on-week, reflecting a slowdown in market activity [1]. - The number of active polysilicon producers remains at ten, with an overall low operating rate, suggesting stable supply conditions [1]. Group 2: Pricing Trends - The transaction price range for n-type recycled material is between 49,000 to 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous week [2]. - The transaction price for n-type granular silicon has increased by 2.02%, with an average price of 50,500 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of rod silicon has remained stable, while granular silicon prices have seen a slight increase of 1 yuan/kg, indicating a divergence in price trends between the two products [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Upstream supply continues to exceed downstream demand, leading to inventory pressure across various segments, and prices from batteries to components have not met expectations [1]. - Some downstream users of granular silicon are extending their delivery periods to ensure stable supply, reflecting a strategic move to lock in resources [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and the futures market is slightly volatile. The current fundamentals have not changed significantly. The previous increase in the industrial silicon market was mainly due to capital behavior and news, but there is still pressure above. The market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote capacity exit, the market may have room to rise [3]. - The polysilicon supply - demand fundamentals are average. The market is currently affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. Spot prices still have some support, but policy implementation is in progress, leading to large market fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, if the market corrects significantly, long positions can be considered [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On September 23, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,930 yuan/ton and closed at 8,925 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton (-2.30%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 273,696 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,963 lots, an increase of 161 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices were stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8,900 - 9,100 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,900 - 9,100 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were slightly stable [1]. - The price of organic silicon DMC was 10,900 - 11,200 yuan/ton. Some monomer plants' pre - sales have been scheduled until the end of this month and early next month. Monomer plants' willingness to support prices has increased, but price increases face constraints. New orders have decreased, and downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The domestic DMC market price will remain stable in the short term [2]. Strategy - Short - term: conduct range operations. Medium - term: the valuation is low, and long positions can be considered for contracts during the dry season [3]. - There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On September 23, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 declined and then fluctuated. It opened at 50,900 yuan/ton and closed at 50,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 116,091 lots, and the trading volume was 296,108 lots [4]. - Polysilicon spot prices were stable. The price of N - type material was 50.30 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 50.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 20.40 (with a month - on - month change of - 6.80%), and silicon wafer inventory was 16.87GW (with a month - on - month change of 1.93%). Polysilicon weekly output was 31,000 tons (with a month - on - month change of - 0.50%), and silicon wafer output was 13.92GW (with a month - on - month change of 0.29%) [4][5]. - The center of the polysilicon transaction price moved slightly upward. The market was polarized. Resources below 52 yuan were more popular, while downstream acceptance of prices above 53 yuan was limited [5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [5][6]. Strategy - Short - term: conduct range operations. - There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [9]. - In the medium - to - long - term, if the market corrects significantly, long positions can be considered [7].