Core Insights - The transportation sector in China showed a cumulative increase of 0.37% from October 13 to October 18, ranking 4th among 31 SW primary industries, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 2.22% [2] Subsector Performance - The performance of various subsectors within transportation during the week was as follows: Shipping (3.06%), Airport (2.57%), Expressway (2.33%), Road Freight (1.08%), Port (0.83%), Railway (0.22%), Bus (-2.00%), Cross-border Logistics (-3.49%), Express (-4.36%), and Warehousing Logistics (-4.76%) [1][3] Airline Sector Analysis - Domestic and international capacity recovery rates for major listed airlines in September 2025 compared to the same month in 2019 were as follows: Air China (145.09%), China Southern Airlines (116.42%), China Eastern Airlines (115.45%), Hainan Airlines (92.17%), Juneyao Airlines (115.48%), and Spring Airlines (176.49%) for domestic ASK; and for international ASK: 98.13%, 94.97%, 105.34%, 73.58%, 219.78%, and 81.74% respectively [3] Oil Prices and Exchange Rates - As of October 17, 2025, Brent crude oil was priced at $61.29 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.79% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.68% [3] - The exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan against the US Dollar was 7.1048, with a week-on-week depreciation of 0.08% and a year-on-year depreciation of 0.38% [3] Airport Traffic Recovery - Major airports in China showed the following recovery rates for domestic passenger throughput in September 2025 compared to 2019: Baiyun Airport (115.74%), Shanghai Airport (125.22%), Capital Airport (89.82%), and Shenzhen Airport (119.73%) [4] Shipping and Port Metrics - The SCFI index was reported at 1310 points, a week-on-week increase of 12.92% but a year-on-year decrease of 36.46% as of October 17, 2025 [4] - The CCFI index was at 973 points, with a week-on-week decrease of 4.11% and a year-on-year decrease of 30.75% [4] Dry Bulk Shipping Metrics - The BDI index was reported at 2069 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.87% and a year-on-year increase of 29.80% [5] Road and Rail Performance - In August 2025, railway passenger volume was 505 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.55%, while road passenger volume was 950 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4.80% [5] Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry achieved a revenue of 1189.60 billion Yuan in August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.20%, with a business volume of 16.15 billion pieces, up 12.30% year-on-year [5] Investment Recommendations - The airline sector is expected to benefit from increased international flights and domestic demand recovery, with recommendations for stocks such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and others [6] - The airport sector is advised to focus on bottom-fishing opportunities due to the anticipated recovery in international passenger traffic [6] - The cross-border logistics sector is expected to benefit from the growth of cross-border e-commerce, with a recommendation to pay attention to Huamao Logistics [7] - The express delivery sector is seen as having growth potential due to the acceleration of e-commerce and improved industry dynamics [8]

Core Points - The article discusses the recent escalation of tensions between China and the U.S. following the Madrid economic talks, highlighting the rapid implementation of U.S. measures against China and China's subsequent countermeasures. [1][2] - It emphasizes that the current conflict is not a result of misjudgment but a clear understanding of interests from both sides, with China prepared to defend its position against U.S. unilateral actions. [1][2] Group 1 - The U.S. has introduced 20 measures against China in just over 20 days, including export control lists that affect thousands of Chinese companies and new port fees for Chinese shipbuilding. [2][3] - China's countermeasures are coordinated across multiple departments, indicating a structured response framework that includes actions like rare earth export controls and investigations into U.S. companies. [3][4] - The article notes that while the number of countermeasures is fewer than in April, they continue to follow a similar framework, targeting the entire rare earth supply chain and involving antitrust investigations. [3][6] Group 2 - The countermeasures are described as more precise, reflecting U.S. regulatory practices, such as stringent approval processes for products containing rare earth elements. [6][7] - The article highlights the strategic nature of these measures, which not only respond to U.S. actions but also set new rules and standards that could impact U.S. companies operating in China. [6][7] - China's response also extends to foreign companies that support U.S. actions, signaling a broader strategy to deter collaboration with the U.S. against Chinese interests. [8][9] Group 3 - The article suggests that the current U.S. administration's chaotic approach to trade and sanctions has created opportunities for China to assert its position more effectively. [9][10] - It points out that the U.S. is struggling to formulate a coherent counter-strategy, leading to a perception of disarray within the U.S. government. [10][13] - The ongoing tensions are framed as part of a larger, long-term struggle against U.S. hegemony, with China needing to prepare for a sustained conflict. [15][19] Group 4 - The article concludes with a call for China to enhance its counter-sanction capabilities, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive legal framework and better coordination among various government departments. [26][28] - It advocates for the development of a robust response system that can effectively address the challenges posed by U.S. sanctions and trade measures. [26][30] - The need for a strategic approach to international relations and trade is underscored, with an emphasis on building alliances and enhancing China's global economic presence. [34][36]

央广网北京10月21日消息（记者宁婉婷 周力）据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》 报道，全球首艘甲醇电动集散两用船"远醇001"号20日在上海港举行首航仪式，标志着该船正式投入商 业化运营，开创了内河绿色航运应用新模式。 "远醇001"号是一款融合液态新能源动力与智能控制技术的集散两用内河船舶，载重1500吨，最大 可装载64个标准集装箱。船舶醇氢电动业务相关负责人丁鼎介绍，该船动力系统配置先进，实现了甲醇 清洁能源和锂电储能的高效协同。 丁鼎：同样米段的船要装电量超4000kWh的电池，我们只需要装电量516.0kWh就够了。购置成本 大大下降，节能减排，续航成本、使用成本都比传统的柴油船要好得多。 作为内河船舶，"远醇001"号续航能力更强，覆盖范围更广，可从上海直达湖北宜昌。 上海市交通委科技信息处一级主任科员张英杰表示，此次"远醇001"号的成功首航标志着我国在内 河航运新能源应用领域实现重大突破，也为全球航运业绿色转型提供了新路径。 张英杰：后续随着远洋绿色甲醇的发展成熟，我们也将推动船舶使用绿色甲醇，实现真正的零排 放。 ...

在"金融与保险论坛"上，同样有三项新成果发布。其中，中国沿海散货运价指数编委会油品运输专业委 员会正式发起设立中国沿海成品油运价标准体系。该体系是在中国沿海成品油运价指数基础上进行的完 善优化，设计更为科学合理，具有较大的推广潜能与规范价值。 中国船东互保协会保赔险入会总吨突破1亿大关也作为成果发布。协会保赔险入会总吨由1984年成立之 初的47万增长至当前的1亿，年均增长14%。这一成就标志着中国船东互保协会在推进"提高航运保险承 保能力和全球服务水平"任务实施过程中迈出坚实一步；标志着协会作为亚洲最大保赔协会的地位进一 步巩固，国际竞争力与影响力进一步提升。 上海航运保险协会发布了"电动汽车航运火灾减损方案"。该方案聚焦全球电动汽车出口领域的海运安全 问题，为有效化解新能源汽车出口海运中的重大风险提供技术支撑与系统化解决路径，助力维护我国航 运金融稳定与产业链安全，是一项具有里程碑意义的跨行业成果。 10月20日，2025北外滩国际航运论坛再次发布八项最新行业成果。 在"海上交通安全论坛"上，《我国初步建成绿色船舶和海上设施技术规范体系》《海图服务创新联盟成 立暨服务举措和S-100系列产品创新成果发布》 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the overseas macro - aspect, the current volatility level is in a low - lying stage, and the "bad news is good news" logic may be nearing its end. The internal fluctuation energy in the US is being accumulated and may rise periodically. In the domestic macro - aspect, the September economic and financial data showed relative resilience, and policy expectations were further strengthened, which may support low - valued domestic assets in the fourth quarter. - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major assets. Overseas, the catalytic elasticity of government shutdown and data vacuum on interest - rate cut expectations has decreased, and the marginal support for risk assets may decline. In China, policy changes may lead to a rebound in low - valued domestic commodity assets [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4506.8 with a daily increase of 0.48%, the SSE 50 futures at 2970.4 with a daily increase of 0.25%, the CSI 500 futures at 6909.2 with a daily increase of 0.67%, and the CSI 1000 futures at 7059.2 with a daily increase of 1.15%. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.334 with a daily decrease of 0.04%, the 5 - year at 105.655 with a daily decrease of 0.12%, the 10 - year at 108.11 with a daily decrease of 0.07%, and the 30 - year at 115.3 with a daily decrease of 0.49%. - **Foreign Exchange**: The central parity rate of the US dollar was 7.0973, up 24 pips. - **Interest Rates**: The 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield was 1.82%, down 1.6 bp, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.02%, up 3 bp [4]. 3.2 Popular Industry - **Electronics**: The index was 11821, with a daily increase of 2.01% and an annual increase of 51.00%. - **Power Equipment and New Energy**: The index was 11404, with a daily increase of 2.68% and an annual increase of 35.68%. - **Consumer Services**: The index was 6859, with a daily increase of 0.08% and an annual increase of 7.30% [4]. 3.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 57.25, up 0.53% daily; ICE Brent crude oil at 61.34, up 0.52% daily. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold closed at 4267.9, down 1.76% daily; COMEX silver at 50.625, down 5.25% daily. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper closed at 2778.5, down 0.63% daily; LME zinc at 2942.5, down 0.86% daily [4]. 3.4 Domestic Main Commodities - **Gold**: The price was 970.32, down 2.95% daily and up 57.11% annually. - **Silver**: The price was 11742, up 7.55% daily and up 15.74% annually. - **Coke**: The price was 2.03% higher daily and 5.36% higher weekly [5]. 3.5 Viewpoint Highlights - **Finance**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles; stock index options are expected to fluctuate; treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September [8]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to fluctuate as the peak season fades in the third quarter [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel products, iron ore, coke, and other varieties are expected to fluctuate, with different influencing factors for each [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most base metals are expected to fluctuate, waiting for the clarity of macro - policies [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products are expected to decline or fluctuate, affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - policies [10]. - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products show a differentiated trend, with most expected to fluctuate, and some like sugar and pulp expected to decline in a volatile manner [10].

Group 1 - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has announced the winter-spring schedule for 2025, with domestic flight schedules contracting for two consecutive seasons, showing a decrease of 1.0% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025 [1] - The average ticket price for domestic routes has increased by 5.9%, with an average daily passenger load factor of 87.9%, which is an increase of 3.5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - International airlines are experiencing a peak in operations, with an average of over 2000 international passenger flights per day, marking a 10.6% increase compared to the National Day holiday in 2024 [1] Group 2 - Major shipping companies, including MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd, have collectively raised prices on multiple routes, with increases ranging from $600 to $2000 per container, indicating a structural upward cycle in the shipping industry after months of low demand [1] - Analysts attribute the recent price hikes to a combination of factors, including reduced capacity at European and American ports, adjustments in Red Sea and African routes, and global manufacturing restocking [1] - Oil prices have declined for three consecutive weeks, with the average price of jet fuel in October showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, which may benefit civil aviation demand and reduce cost pressures for airlines [1][2] Group 3 - Domestic ticket prices have turned positive, increasing by 3.0% from week 36 to week 41, supported by improved revenue management by airlines and a low comparative base [2] - The decline in oil prices is expected to alleviate cost pressures, aiding airlines in achieving profit elasticity, while the appreciation of the Renminbi is also seen as a significant advantage [2] Group 4 - Relevant Hong Kong-listed airlines include China Eastern Airlines (00670), China Southern Airlines (01055), Air China (00753), and Cathay Pacific Airways (00293) [3]

Company Insights - Dachen Fund conducted a recent survey on Haitong Development, revealing Q3 2025 revenue of 1.209 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.27%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 166 million, a decrease of 1.49% [1] - For the first three quarters, the company reported revenue of 3.009 billion, up 16.32% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 253 million, down 38.47% [1] - The company adheres to a five-year special inspection and a three-year interim check, allowing underwater inspections to replace factory inspections for ships within 15 years [1] Industry Trends - The current ship repair peak has extended dry dock days by approximately ten days, impacting supply by over 1 percentage point [1] - China's countermeasures have expanded to capital stakeholders holding 25% or more of ships, significantly increasing costs for shipowners with U.S. backgrounds [1] - The company is advancing its "Hundred Ships Plan," aiming to reach 100 vessels by 2028-2029, with annual capital expenditures between 1 to 1.5 billion [1] - The heavy-lift vessel business is responding to the "Belt and Road" initiative, supporting equipment manufacturing exports [1] - The West Mandoo is expected to launch its first shipment in November, with a production capacity of 120 million tons by 2028, alongside Brazil's incremental growth and potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which may widen the supply-demand gap in the industry [1]

News Focus - The National Energy Administration is accelerating the construction of a credit system in the energy sector, aiming for a more complete regulatory framework and improved credit information sharing by the end of 2027 [2] - The Ministry of Transport has launched the "International Green Shipping Corridor Cooperation Initiative," proposing seven measures to promote international cooperation in green shipping [2] Domestic News - The National Energy Administration approved the safety registration of 19 hydropower station dams, including the Wengden Pumped Storage Power Station [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of electric vehicle charging facilities in China reached 18.063 million, a year-on-year increase of 54.5% [3] - In September, the industrial power generation in China was 826.2 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.5% [3] - The added value of the lithium-ion battery manufacturing industry increased by 29.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] Automotive Industry - In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached a historical high, with production and sales of 1.617 million and 1.604 million units respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 23.7% and 24.6% [4][5] International News - The UK government announced a clean energy job growth plan, aiming to create 400,000 new jobs in the clean energy sector by 2030 [6] - The South African government plans to invest approximately $126.7 billion to advance energy transition and address long-standing electricity supply issues [6] Corporate News - The world's highest voltage level converter station is undergoing annual maintenance, ensuring reliable electricity supply for the Yangtze River Delta region this winter and spring [7]

Group 1: Cement Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the need for leading enterprises to strictly implement the cement capacity replacement plan to address the prominent supply-demand imbalance in the cement industry [1] Group 2: Robotics Industry - Zhiyuan Robotics is projected to achieve over tenfold revenue growth this year, with approximately 1,000 units of its "Expedition" series shipped, and expectations to ship several thousand units next year, positioning it as the largest humanoid robot manufacturer globally [2] Group 3: Aerospace Industry - The reusable rocket Zhuque-3 has successfully completed key preparations for its maiden flight, including fueling and static ignition tests, aiming for an official launch and first-stage recovery later this year [3] Group 4: Artificial Intelligence - The third phase of the AI capability building seminar was held, focusing on promoting innovation, accessibility, and global governance in AI technology [4] Group 5: Electric Vehicle Infrastructure - As of September 2025, China has 18.063 million electric vehicle charging facilities, marking a 54.5% year-on-year increase, with public charging facilities reaching 4.476 million and private facilities at 13.587 million [5] Group 6: Maritime Industry - The world's first methanol-electric dual-purpose vessel, "Yuanchun 001," successfully completed its maiden voyage, featuring advanced power systems and lithium battery configurations [6] Group 7: AI Business Development - Alibaba's Quark is advancing an AI initiative known as the "C Plan," which is being developed by its core team and aims to leverage model technology breakthroughs for future applications [7] Group 8: Energy Sector - The National Energy Administration has issued a plan to accelerate the construction of a credit system in the energy sector, aiming for improved regulations and enhanced credit awareness by the end of 2027 [8] Group 9: ETF Market Activity - The total trading volume of ETFs in the market has exceeded 500 billion yuan, with significant contributions from various types of ETFs, including stock and bond ETFs [9] Group 10: Economic Growth - China's GDP for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 10.15036 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, with the tertiary industry contributing the most to economic growth [10]

Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Energy is the largest tanker owner globally, with a diverse fleet structure that allows the company to capitalize on market cycles effectively [1] Group 1: Company Overview - China Merchants Energy owns 44 VLCCs, contributing nearly 1 billion yuan in net profit elasticity, while the overall fleet's net profit elasticity is close to 2 billion yuan [1] - The company has additional profit elasticity of 400 million yuan from its current orders upon delivery [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ is increasing crude oil production, which is expected to boost transportation demand, with a potential increase of 2.14 to 4.11 million barrels per day [1] - The current low oil prices have released pent-up inventory demand, with global crude oil inventories still having a capacity of 460 million barrels compared to the five-year high [1] - The supply constraints are strong, with VLCC fleet capacity not seeing concentrated scrapping for nearly 20 years, leading to an expected actual fleet growth rate of 3.3% and 5.1% for 2026-2027 [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast - The forecast for VLCC freight rates is set at an average of $50,000/day, $60,000/day, and $58,000/day for the years 2025 to 2027 [3] - Projected revenues for the company are 24.485 billion yuan, 26.725 billion yuan, and 27.233 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.8%, 9.1%, and 1.9% respectively [3] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.462 billion yuan, 5.803 billion yuan, and 5.757 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of +10.5%, +30.1%, and -0.8% respectively [3] Group 4: Valuation and Investment Potential - The company's replacement cost is estimated at 55.43 billion yuan, with the current market value being 0.73 times the replacement cost, lower than its peers [3] - If benchmarked against a P/NAV of 1.16 times, the company has an upside potential of 58% [4] - Under various scenarios, including a 10% increase in ship prices, the estimated replacement cost could rise to 60.5 billion yuan, indicating potential price increases of 65%, 72%, and 200% under different assumptions [4]