马士基周二表示，航运集团赫伯罗特与马士基将调整双方一项共享航线服务的航行路线，重新经由红海 及苏伊士运河运输。 2023年末，红海海域发生多起袭击事件（胡塞武装称此举是为声援加沙地带的巴勒斯坦人），此后航运 公司纷纷将船只改道非洲绕行。如今，各大航运企业正考虑重返这条连接亚欧的关键贸易通道。 马士基在声明中指出，此次航线的红海及苏伊士运河通行将由海军力量提供安保支持。 马士基周二表示，航运集团赫伯罗特与马士基将调整双方一项共享航线服务的航行路线，重新经由红海 及苏伊士运河运输。 2023年末，红海海域发生多起袭击事件（胡塞武装称此举是为声援加沙地带的巴勒斯坦人），此后航运 公司纷纷将船只改道非洲绕行。如今，各大航运企业正考虑重返这条连接亚欧的关键贸易通道。 马士基在声明中指出，此次航线的红海及苏伊士运河通行将由海军力量提供安保支持。 声明称："两家航运公司将采取尽可能最高级别的安全防护措施，船员、船只及客户货物的安全始终是 双方的首要任务。" 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 声明称："两家航运公司将采取尽可能最高级别的安全防护措施，船员、船只及客户货物的安全始终是 双方的首要任务。" 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The settlement price of the SCFIS European Line released on Monday slightly exceeded market expectations, driving the near - month futures to slightly repair the discount. The market is in a vacuum period of spot trading, and the futures trend is oscillating and slightly strong. The 2026/2/3 closing price of EC2604 was 1,237.9 points, up 4.5% from the previous trading day [6]. - In terms of spot freight rates, the prices of major shipping companies have declined to varying degrees. From a fundamental perspective, the demand is gradually entering a downward phase after peaking, and the supply in March has increased compared to the previous week's schedule. Geopolitical situations are volatile, and the resumption of large - scale shipping on the European Line in the first half of the year is still difficult. The impact of bad weather on shipping schedules is expected to vary in different regions. Spot freight rates are expected to have limited fluctuations around the Spring Festival, but attention should be paid to the decline rate after the festival [7]. - Regarding trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading of the 04 contract due to many short - term disturbances and large expected fluctuations. For arbitrage, a rolling operation of the long 6 - short 10 spread is recommended [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Futures Contract Quotes - EC2602: The closing price was 1,737.8, up 17.8 (1.03%), with a trading volume of 612 (up 108.16%) and an open interest of 1,883 (down 19.50%) [4]. - EC2604: The closing price was 1,237.9, up 53.3 (4.50%), with a trading volume of 29,296 (down 10.73%) and an open interest of 34,229 (up 1.25%) [4]. - EC2606: The closing price was 1,533.7, up 20.6 (1.36%), with a trading volume of 3,147 (down 47.06%) and an open interest of 13,458 (up 6.83%) [4]. - EC2608: The closing price was 1,597.9, down 10.0 (- 0.62%), with a trading volume of 353 (down 68.79%) and an open interest of 1,479 (up 2.00%) [4]. - EC2610: The closing price was 1,128.6, down 1.4 (- 0.12%), with a trading volume of 1,355 (down 45.89%) and an open interest of 7,677 (down 2.63%) [4]. - EC2612: The closing price was 1,439.0, up 34.0 (2.42%), with a trading volume of 29 (down 27.50%) and an open interest of 128 (up 5.79%) [4]. 3.1.2 Month - spread Structure - For example, the spread of EC02 - EC04 was 500, down 35.5; the spread of EC02 - EC06 was 204, down 2.8, etc. [4]. 3.2 Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European Line: The price was 1792.14 points, down 3.61% week - on - week and 21.20% year - on - year [4]. - SCFIS US West Line: The price was 1101.40 points, down 14.91% week - on - week and 55.24% year - on - year [4]. - SCFI Comprehensive Index: The price was 1316.75 points, down 9.68% week - on - week and 38.20% year - on - year [4]. - Other routes such as Shanghai - West Africa, Shanghai - South America, etc., also showed varying degrees of decline in freight rates [4]. 3.3 Fuel Costs - WTI Crude Oil Near - month Contract: The price was $61.45 per barrel, down 5.72% week - on - week and 14.82% year - on - year [4]. - Brent Crude Oil Near - month Contract: The price was $65.49 per barrel, down 6.22% week - on - week and 13.4% year - on - year [4]. 3.4 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations 3.4.1 Market Analysis - The SCFIS European Line settlement price on Monday exceeded expectations, mainly due to the impact of shipping schedule delays. It is expected that the index will still lag behind [6]. - In the spot market, the freight rates of major shipping companies have decreased. The demand is peaking and then declining, and the supply in March has increased. Geopolitical situations are unstable, and bad weather affects shipping schedules [7]. 3.4.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see for the 04 contract due to short - term disturbances and large expected fluctuations [8]. - Arbitrage: A rolling operation of the long 6 - short 10 spread is recommended [9]. 3.5 Industry News - The US and India agreed to establish a trade agreement. The US will reduce the reciprocal tariff on India from 25% to 18%, and India will gradually eliminate tariffs and non - tariff barriers against the US [10]. - From the 6th week (February 2 - 8) to the 10th week (March 2 - 8), 103 out of about 704 scheduled flights were cancelled, accounting for 15% of the planned flights. Cancellations were mainly on the Trans - Pacific Eastbound route (59%), followed by the Asia - Europe/Mediterranean route (33%) and the Trans - Atlantic Westbound route (8%) [10]. 3.6 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple figures such as the SCFIS European Line Index and SCFIS US West Line Index, SCFI Comprehensive Index, and container freight rates of different routes, as well as the basis of EC02 and EC04 contracts [11][17][19]

（原标题：VLCC航运费用飙升! 霍尔木兹阴云压顶叠加运力吃紧 TD3C日收益狂飙61.6%） 智通财经APP获悉，本周，在全球各国对于伊朗以及整个中东地区紧张局势的担忧与大型原油运输船舶 供应极度紧张之势相互叠加，共同推高海上航运定价之际，从中东向中国运输原油的大型油轮收取了两 个月来最高规模的航运费。 根据波罗的海交易所发布的数据，基准TD3C航线上一艘大型船舶的航运日收益在周一上涨5.1%，至接 近每日级别的报价12.9万美元，为自11月下旬以来的最高水平。此次上涨发生在上周五航运价格暴涨 61.6%之后，当日随着全球投资者们对于可能由美国主导且针对这个伊斯兰共和国的新一轮军事行动的 担忧加剧，市场情绪趋于紧张。 对于外国大型航运船舶来说，更加严峻的是，当天，有关伊朗政府考虑进行海陆空实弹演习的报道令市 场愈发不安;与此同时，有新闻媒体报道称，拥有全球最大规模油轮船队的希腊已警告大型船舶们在通 过霍尔木兹海峡时远离伊朗海岸，这一警告也使得那些处于航线进程的油轮们选择绕道，甚至直接暂时 停止接收需要穿越霍尔木兹海峡的任何运输行程订单。 如以下的图表所示，中东至中国油轮运价在伊朗紧张局势下飙升——VLCC( ...

Group 1: Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery business volume in China is expected to grow by 13.7% year-on-year by 2025, with some companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition [1] - During the week of January 5-11, the total collection volume of postal express reached approximately 4.107 billion pieces, a week-on-week increase of 7.1% and a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [1] - The total delivery volume for the same week was about 4.16 billion pieces, with a week-on-week increase of 6.0% and a year-on-year increase of 9.0% [1] - By 2025, the express delivery revenue is projected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [1] - The report recommends investing in SF Holding due to valuation, operational resilience, and improved shareholder returns, while also being optimistic about Zhongtong Express due to market share growth [1] Group 2: Logistics Industry - The chemical product price index (CCPI) in China is currently at 4024 points, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.7% but a month-on-month increase of 1.1% [2] - The domestic sea freight price for liquid chemicals is 169 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.98% [2] - Shanghai has introduced favorable policies for intelligent driving, aiming to expand the application of L3-level autonomous vehicles and enhance smart logistics [2] - The report recommends Hai Chen Co. due to improved demand in its main business [2] Group 3: Aviation Industry - The average daily number of flights in China has decreased by 5.66% year-on-year, with domestic flights down by 6.18% [3] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $64.13 per barrel, a month-on-month increase of 1.25% but a year-on-year decrease of 19.76% [3] - The report suggests that supply constraints from aircraft manufacturers and upstream suppliers will slow supply growth, leading to improved ticket prices and airline profit elasticity, recommending China National Aviation and Southern Airlines [3] Group 4: Shipping Industry - The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1209.85 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 22.5% [4] - The crude oil transportation index (BDTI) increased by 18.5% month-on-month and 60.2% year-on-year [4] - The dry bulk freight index (BDI) is at 1586.4 points, showing a month-on-month decrease of 10.5% but a year-on-year increase of 51.2% [4] - The report indicates that the total number of trucks on highways decreased year-on-year by 2.02% [4]

流动性方面，截止2月3日，港股通红利ETF广发（520900）近20个交易日累计成交金额15.30亿元，日 均成交金额7651.89万元；今年以来，22个交易日，累计成交金额16.58亿元，日均成交金额7537.85万 元。 港股通红利ETF广发（520900）现任基金经理为霍华明、吕鑫。霍华明自2024年6月26日管理（或拟管 理）该基金，任职期内收益12.39%；吕鑫自2025年4月30日管理（或拟管理）该基金，任职期内收益 26.44%。 最新定期报告显示，港股通红利ETF广发（520900）重仓股包括中国海洋石油、中国神华、中国石油股 份、中国移动、中国石油化工股份、中远海控、中国电信、中国联通、中国铁塔、招商银行，持仓占比 如下。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 2月3日，广发中证国新港股通央企红利ETF（520900）收盘涨1.34%，成交额8806.33万元。 港股通红利ETF广发（520900）成立于2024年6月26日，基金全称为广发中证国新港股通央企红利交易 型开放式指数证券投资基金，基金简称为广发中证国新港股通央企红利ETF。该基金管理费率每年 0.50%，托管费率每年0.10%。港股通红利ET ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Haitong Development, is a leading player in the domestic private dry bulk shipping sector, benefiting from the depreciation of the Renminbi and its strategic positioning in the Fujian Free Trade Zone [2][4]. Company Overview - Haitong Development is located at 23 Changting Street, Taijiang District, Fuzhou, Fujian Province, and was established on March 19, 2009, with its listing date on March 29, 2023 [8]. - The company primarily engages in domestic coastal and international ocean dry bulk transportation, with shipping revenue accounting for 90.84% of its total income [8]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.009 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 38.47% to 253 million yuan [8]. Business Operations - Haitong Development has developed into a leading private shipping enterprise in the dry bulk sector, particularly in coal transportation, where it has become the largest private shipping company in the Bohai Sea to Yangtze River route [3][4]. - The company is actively expanding its transportation services to include iron ore, slag, and other dry bulk goods [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported that overseas revenue accounted for 65.04% of its total revenue, benefiting from the depreciation of the Renminbi [4]. - Since its A-share listing, Haitong Development has distributed a total of 313 million yuan in dividends [9]. Market Activity - On February 3, the company's stock rose by 0.21%, with a trading volume of 332 million yuan and a turnover rate of 8.16%, leading to a total market capitalization of 13.501 billion yuan [1].

Group 1 - Strong sectors today include non-ferrous metals, energy chemicals (some varieties), and shipping sectors [3][16] - Weakest sectors are black metals (iron ore) and agricultural products (live pigs) [3][16] - Core long positions are in copper, PVC, and alumina, while core short positions are in live pigs and iron ore [3][16] Group 2 - The global situation shows a sharp reversal in Federal Reserve policy expectations, with Trump's nomination of Waller as Fed Chair causing market turbulence [3][16] - The core advocacy of "rate cuts + aggressive balance sheet reduction" strengthens the dollar, leading to significant market differentiation [3][16] - The market has shifted from being "financially driven" to "fundamentally priced," with increased volatility and a failure of single trend logic [3][16] Group 3 - Domestic recovery and production pace exceed expectations, supporting demand for industrial metals and some energy chemicals [3][16] - High inventory levels in black metals and persistent overcapacity in agricultural products create a foundation for long-short hedging strategies [3][16] Group 4 - Long strategy for PVC includes a low-entry position with a maximum of 6% of total equity, targeting a price range of 4780-4820 points [5][18] - Long strategy for copper involves a strong bullish stance with a maximum of 10% of total equity, targeting a price range of 101000-101800 points [6][19] - Long strategy for alumina suggests a left-side layout with a maximum of 5% of total equity, targeting a price range of 2580-2600 points [7][20] Group 5 - Short strategy for live pigs involves a rebound short with a maximum of 7% of total equity, targeting a price range of 11200-11250 points [8][21] - Short strategy for iron ore suggests a high short position with a maximum of 8% of total equity, targeting a price range of 785-790 points [9][22] Group 6 - The effectiveness of strategies shows a precise match with fundamentals, focusing on "supply-demand gaps + demand recovery" for long positions and "high inventory + supply increase" for short positions [10][23] - The overall position balance is reasonable, with long positions at 21% and short positions at 15%, allowing for hedging space [10][23] Group 7 - Macro variables such as the progress of Waller's nomination, domestic recovery data, and overseas manufacturing recovery will influence long-short logic [12][25] - Potential opportunities for long positions include lithium carbonate and European shipping line pullback, while short positions should be cautious of supply contractions in coking coal and coke [12][25]

Core Insights - Recently, China COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能) has undergone a business change, increasing its registered capital from approximately 4.77 billion RMB to about 5.47 billion RMB, representing an increase of around 15% [1] Company Overview - China COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. was established in July 1996 and is legally represented by Ren Yongqiang [1] - The company's business scope includes coastal, ocean, and Yangtze River cargo transportation, ship leasing, and cargo agency and forwarding services [1] - The company is jointly held by China Shipping Group Co., Ltd., HKSCC NOMINEES LIMITED, and China COSCO Shipping Group Co., Ltd. [1]

Core Viewpoint - SeaFeast International (01308) has announced a positive earnings forecast, expecting a shareholder profit of approximately $1.2 billion to $1.23 billion for the year, representing a year-on-year increase of about 16.0% to 18.9% [1] Group 1: Earnings Performance - The company anticipates a shareholder profit of around $1.2 billion to $1.23 billion, which is an increase of approximately 16.0% to 18.9% year-on-year [1] - Morgan Stanley believes the performance slightly exceeds market consensus but expects limited market reaction to last year's earnings [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - SeaFeast International has announced the further exercise of two shipbuilding options, indicating strong confidence in the long-term demand for feeder container ships, particularly in the Asian regional routes [1] - The new capacity deployment plan has been extended to the next three to four years, with four new ships scheduled for delivery in September 2028, November 2028, January 2029, and by March 2029 [1]

Core Viewpoint - SeaFeast International (01308) has announced a positive earnings forecast, expecting a shareholder profit of approximately $1.2 billion to $1.23 billion for the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 16.0% to 18.9% [1] Group 1: Earnings Performance - The company’s earnings forecast slightly exceeds market consensus, although Morgan Stanley anticipates limited market reaction to last year's profits [1] - The expected profit range indicates a strong performance compared to the previous year, showcasing the company's growth trajectory [1] Group 2: Strategic Developments - SeaFeast International has decided to further exercise two shipbuilding options, demonstrating confidence in the long-term demand for feeder container ships, particularly in the Asian regional routes [1] - The new capacity deployment plan includes the delivery of four new vessels scheduled for September 2028, November 2028, January 2029, and March 2029 or earlier, extending the company's operational plans into the next three to four years [1]