Group 1 - Asian stock markets showed divergence, with Japanese stocks experiencing a significant drop of over 500 points, primarily driven by declines in major semiconductor-related companies [2][3] - Alibaba's stock surged over 18%, marking its largest intraday gain since November 2022, indicating a positive trend in the Chinese tech sector [4][3] - The upcoming weeks are critical for the stock market, with key inflation data and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions expected to set the tone for investors [5] Group 2 - Gold and silver prices saw substantial increases, with silver surpassing $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, driven by optimistic expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [6][7] - The current market conditions have led to a significant rise in precious metals, with gold approaching its historical high, as both fundamental and technical factors align favorably [7] - The A-share market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.46% and the ChiNext Index rising by 2.29% [8][9] Group 3 - The stock performance of gold-related companies was robust, with several stocks reaching their daily limit up [10] - Semiconductor stocks maintained their strong performance, with companies like Zhaoyi Innovation hitting their daily limit [11] - Innovative drug concept stocks were active, with multiple stocks also reaching their daily limit [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (09988.HK) with a target price of HK$ 150 [1][7]. Core Insights - Alibaba's Q1 FY2026 revenue reached RMB 247.65 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of 2%. Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 45.74 billion, down 11% year-over-year, while non-GAAP net profit was RMB 33.51 billion, down 18% year-over-year. The performance met market expectations, maintaining the "Buy" rating [7]. - The company's investment in instant retail is beginning to yield results, with e-commerce growth aligning with market expectations. Despite a slight decline in profits due to competition, Alibaba's performance outpaced rivals like Meituan and JD.com [9]. - The cloud intelligence segment reported revenue of RMB 33.4 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, driven by growth in public cloud services and AI product adoption. Profitability in this segment improved, with a profit margin of 8.8% [9]. - Capital expenditures for FY26Q1 were RMB 38.6 billion, a significant increase of 224% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing investments in AI and cloud services. The company plans to invest RMB 380 billion in AI over the next three years [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Industry: Retail [2] - H-Share Price (as of 2025/08/29): HK$ 115.70 [2] - Market Capitalization: RMB 193.66 billion [2] - Major Shareholder: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (3.57%) [2] Financial Performance - Q1 FY2026 Revenue: RMB 247.65 billion, YOY +2% [7] - Adjusted EBITDA: RMB 45.74 billion, YOY -11% [7] - Non-GAAP Net Profit: RMB 33.51 billion, YOY -18% [7] E-commerce and Cloud Business - Instant retail revenue: RMB 14.8 billion, YOY +12% [9] - Daily average orders for instant retail: 120 million in July, 80 million in August [9] - Cloud intelligence revenue: RMB 33.4 billion, YOY +26% [9] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - FY26Q1 Capital Expenditure: RMB 38.6 billion, YOY +224% [9] - Planned AI investment over three years: RMB 380 billion [9] - Profit forecasts for FY2026-2028: RMB 116.33 billion, RMB 139.39 billion, RMB 160.77 billion respectively [11].

大摩将阿里巴巴称为"中国最佳AI赋能者"，并上调公司目标价至165美元。阿里云业务成为关键增长引擎，第一财季同比 增长26%，其中AI相关收入贡献已超20%，预测第二财季增速将进一步加快至30%以上。该行认为，阿里云及AI业务的 强劲增长和长期价值，足以抵消公司在即时零售业务上的短期亏损。 作者 | 龙 玥 编辑 | 硬 AI 在AI浪潮席卷全球之际，华尔街投行摩根士丹利为中国科技巨头阿里巴巴送上了一顶新的桂冠。 据追风交易台消息，大摩在8月31日发布的研报中，给予了阿里巴巴"中国最佳AI赋能者"（China's Best AI Enabler）的积极评价，并将其美股目标价从150美元上调至165美元。 该行的核心逻辑在于，AI正强力驱动阿里云业务加速增长，并有望帮助这家科技巨头在激烈的市场竞争中 巩固优势。 大摩预计，阿里云在第二财季的增长将从第一财季的26%进一步加速至30%以上，AI相关收入已占到阿里 云总收入的20%以上。 然而，这份乐观展望也伴随着对短期盈利的审慎。报告指出，阿里巴巴在即时电商领域的大规模投资将拖 累近期利润，预计第二财季该业务亏损将扩大至350亿元人民币。尽管如此，该行仍上调了对阿 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 9 月 1 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元 | | 135.00 | 美元 165.00 | +22.2% | | | 阿里巴巴 (BABA US) | | | | | | 阿里云超预期，支撑 AI 价值 股份资料 | 52周高位 (美元) | 147.57 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (美元) | 80.53 | | 市值 (百万美元) | 301,672.35 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 82.17 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 59.22 | | 200天平均价 (美元) | 122.12 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 谷馨瑜,CPA | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结3月31日 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 941,168 | 99 ...

9月1日，阿里巴巴港股股价大涨。截至今日收盘，阿里巴巴港股上涨18.50%，报价137.1港元/股。 阿里巴巴港股股价走势 同花顺iFinD 消息面上，一方面，阿里巴巴上周五公布的最新财报显示，其二季度Non-GAAP净利润同比下降18%， 但核心业务展现出强大韧性：云业务收入同比增长26%，达到三年以来的新高；淘宝闪购则成为驱动用 户增长的最大亮点。 | | | 截至6月30日止三個月 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2024 | 2025 | | | | | | | | %同比變 | | | 人民幣 | 人民幣 | 美元 | | | | | (以百萬計,百分比除外) | | | | 阿里巴巴中國電商集團: | | | | | | 蛋商業務 | | | | | | 一客戶管理 | 81.088 | 89.252 | 12.459 | 10% | | 一直營、物流及其他(2) | 27,434 | 29,325 | 4,093 | 7% | | | 108,522 | 118.577 | 16.552 | 0% | | 即時零售(3) | 13.196 | ...

在"一带一路"倡议不断深化的背景下，中亚电商市场正迎来爆发式增长。作为区域增长极，乌兹别克斯 坦凭借年轻化的人口结构和数字化基础设施的突破，展现出强劲发展动能。 毕马威预测显示，该国电商市场规模将在未来五年内突破20亿美元，线上零售占比有望从当前的3%跃 升至15%。 乌兹别克斯坦最大数字生态系统——涵盖Uzum Market电商平台的企业，其创始人兼首席执行官贾苏尔· 朱马耶夫在接受《中国经营报》记者专访时透露，通过构建"电商+金融科技+物流"三位一体的生态体 系，平台正成为连接"中国制造"和中亚消费市场的重要枢纽。 腾讯同样看好这片电商蓝海。2025年8月，腾讯携手VR Capital共同向Uzum投资了近7000万美元。 《中国经营报》：中亚地区面临物流、运营成本等诸多挑战，你认为电商潜力如何？ 贾苏尔·朱马耶夫：中亚电商正处于加速增长阶段，同时各国的发展阶段并不一致。根据毕马威的预 测，乌兹别克斯坦电商市场规模将在未来五年内增长约7倍，到2027年达到12亿美元。去年，Uzum Market启用了该地区最大的物流中心，自提点网络的扩张推动了线上购物的普及，更重要的是，这让偏 远地区居民也能获得丰富的商 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][6]. Core Views - Alibaba's total revenue for FY2026 Q1 reached 247.65 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2%, while non-GAAP net profit was approximately 35.3 billion RMB, a decrease of 12% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights strong growth in the e-commerce segment, particularly in instant retail, which saw a revenue increase of 12% year-on-year, driven by the growth of "Taobao Flash Purchase" orders [1][2]. - Alibaba Cloud's revenue grew by 26% year-on-year, with AI-related product revenue achieving triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters, accounting for over 20% of external revenue [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: - FY2026 Q1 total revenue: 247.65 billion RMB, up 2% YoY [1]. - Projected revenues for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are 1,055.36 billion RMB, 1,115.16 billion RMB, and 1,167.26 billion RMB respectively [3][5]. - **Net Profit**: - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2026 Q1: 35.3 billion RMB, down 12% YoY [1]. - Projected non-GAAP net profits for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are 129.40 billion RMB, 171.96 billion RMB, and 216.76 billion RMB respectively [3][5]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - Latest diluted EPS for FY2024: 7.8 RMB, projected to be 6.8 RMB for FY2026 and 11.3 RMB for FY2028 [5][12]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Projected P/E ratios for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are 15.7, 11.8, and 9.3 respectively [5][12]. Business Segment Performance - **E-commerce**: - Revenue from Chinese e-commerce reached 1,401 billion RMB, a 10% increase YoY, with adjusted EBITA of approximately 384 billion RMB, down 21% YoY [1]. - **International Business**: - International business revenue was 347 billion RMB, up 19% YoY, with adjusted EBITA loss narrowing to approximately 0.06 billion RMB [1]. - **Alibaba Cloud**: - Revenue of 334 billion RMB, a 26% increase YoY, with adjusted EBITA of approximately 30 billion RMB, also up 26% YoY [1]. - **Other Businesses**: - Other business segments generated 586 billion RMB in revenue, down 28% YoY, with adjusted EBITA loss widening to 14 billion RMB [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 2%, with Alibaba's stock rising over 18% [1] Group 1 - The significant rise in the Hang Seng Index indicates a positive market sentiment [1] - Alibaba's stock performance reflects strong investor interest and confidence in the company [1]

Market Performance - A-shares continued strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3879.05 points, closing at 3862.65 points, up 0.12% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.11% and 0.55% respectively [2] Gold Market - The precious metals sector saw significant gains, with international gold prices reaching new highs; COMEX gold peaked at $3552 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 35% [6][8] - London spot gold prices also rose, reaching $3486.16 per ounce, just shy of the historical high of $3500 from April [8] - A-share gold stocks surged, with Western Gold hitting the daily limit, and several other stocks like Xiaocheng Technology and Hunan Gold also showing strong gains [8][9] AI Computing Sector - The AI computing sector exhibited mixed performance; stocks like Xuanji Information and Liyang Chip hit the daily limit, while Cambrian experienced a decline of nearly 3% [10][11] - Cambrian's stock fluctuated significantly, dropping over 8% before stabilizing to a decrease of 2.98% by midday [11][12] - Reports indicated that rumors about Alibaba purchasing 150,000 Cambrian GPUs were unfounded [12] Alibaba's Market Activity - Alibaba's stock surged over 16% in Hong Kong, with a market capitalization increase of approximately HKD 400 billion, reaching a total market value of HKD 2.59 trillion [15][16] - The company reported a revenue of RMB 247.65 billion for Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year, with a net profit of RMB 43.12 billion, reflecting a 76% year-on-year increase [15][17] - Alibaba plans to invest RMB 380 billion over three years in AI infrastructure, which is expected to drive demand for computing power [17] Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug sector saw significant activity, with MicroPort Medical rising over 14% and achieving a year-to-date increase of over 109% [18] - MicroPort's new stent technology demonstrated clinical advantages, reducing treatment duration and complications [18] - The approval of 43 innovative drugs in the first half of the year indicates a growing focus on drug development in China, with the biotech index showing a year-to-date increase of over 101% [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 200.0 HKD per share [3][11]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on two historical strategic opportunities: cloud computing and AI, with a strong commitment to increasing investments in these areas. The revenue from cloud services reached 334.0 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year growth of 25.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1 percentage points [7][11]. - The integration of the original Taotian Group and the local life group into the China e-commerce group reflects the company's strategy to concentrate on consumer-facing e-commerce and instant retail, as well as AI and cloud services [7][11]. - The company has seen significant improvements in its two main business lines, with AI cloud revenue contributing over 20% to external revenue and experiencing triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters [7][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 10049 billion CNY, 11256 billion CNY, and 12129 billion CNY for FY2026-2028, with adjusted net profits of 1405 billion CNY, 1866 billion CNY, and 2091 billion CNY respectively [8][11]. - The company reported a CMR of 892.5 billion CNY for FY26Q1, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, driven by commission adjustments and AI-driven improvements in site penetration [7][12]. Business Segments - The cloud business is expected to continue its rapid growth, with capital expenditures reaching 387.6 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 219.8% [7][11]. - The food delivery segment has shown high operational efficiency, with monthly active users exceeding 300 million and weekly orders maintaining above 80 million, indicating a narrowing gap with competitors [7][11]. Valuation - The report estimates the company's market value at 34772 billion CNY, corresponding to a per-share value of 200.00 HKD, based on a comprehensive valuation of its various business segments [8][22].