金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（6月6日） 4. 布宜诺斯艾利斯交易所在一份周报中表示："尽管收割延迟，但我们仍然看到单产高于最初预期，特 别是在南部农业区和布宜诺斯艾利斯省西部。"该交易所称，目前本年度大豆已收割完成约88.7%。该 交易所预计阿根廷2024/25年度将收获约5000万吨大豆和4900万吨玉米。 5. USDA最新干旱报告显示，截至6月3日当周，约16%的美国大豆种植区域受到干旱影响，而此前一周 为17%，去年同期为1%。约21%的美国玉米种植区域受到干旱影响，而此前一周为23%，去年同期为 2%。 6. 据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）最新数据，截至5月30日，美棉ON-call未点价卖出订单51536 手，环比增加1657手；未点价买入订单96452手，环比增加4064手。 7. 据隆众资讯，截止到2025年6月5日，国内纯碱厂家总库存162.70万吨，较上周四增加0.27万吨，涨幅 0.17%。其中轻质纯碱79万吨，环比减少2.83万吨，重质纯碱83.7万吨，环比增加3.10万吨。 8. 智利海关公布的数据显示，智利5月铜出口量为181234吨，当月对中国出口铜32721吨。智 ...

首席点评： 欧线领涨 美国 5 月 ADP 就业人数增 3.7 万人，为 2023 年 3 月以来最小增幅，预期增 11.0 万人，前值从增 6.2 万 人修正为增 6 万人。数据显示， 5 月份，私营企业仅创造了 37000 个新工作岗位，这是两年多来的最小 增幅，因为自 20 世纪 30 年代以来最严重的贸易战促使许多公司暂停招聘。在美国 5 月 ADP 就业数据 发布后，美国总统特朗普表示，鲍威尔现在必须降息。他还表示"这令人难以置信，欧洲已经降息九次 了"。美联储发布的最新一期全国经济形势调查报告（简称"褐皮书"）显示，美国经济活动自上次报告 以来略有下降，企业和消费者面临政策不确定性上升、物价压力加大的压力，整体经济前景仍显悲观。 重点品种： 煤焦，原油，集运欧线 焦煤 / 焦炭：新版《矿产资源法》将于 2025 年 7 月 1 日正式施行的，环保标准更严格。受迎峰度夏补 库影响，短期动力煤现货上预期迎来暂稳窗口期，此后仍将下行。焦煤供应略有缩减，山西部分煤矿减 产，影响一定产能。但是受到煤矿库存高位拖累，产地未见到情绪上的好转。双焦在低位都有一定反 复，期价到了阶段性低点，等待方向选择。钢厂利润有 ...

LME有色金属库存日报 金十期货6月4日讯，伦敦金属交易所（LME）有色金属库存及变化如下： 1. 铜库存141350吨，减少2500吨。 2. 铝库存367875吨，持平。 3. 镍库存201624吨，增加162吨。 4. 锌库存136275吨，减少1075吨。 5. 铅库存281550吨，减少1600吨。 6. 锡库存2605吨，持平。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 2.40% during the week of May 26 to May 30, ranking low among all primary industries. Precious metals fell by 3.55%, industrial metals by 2.56%, energy metals by 3.18%, small metals by 0.69%, and new materials by 1.09% [1][15]. - The macroeconomic sentiment has weakened due to declining U.S. consumer spending and escalating trade tensions, impacting industrial metals negatively. However, gold is expected to strengthen due to rising inflation expectations in the U.S. [1][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03%, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining by 2.40%, underperforming the index by 2.38 percentage points [15]. - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals saw declines, with precious metals leading the drop [15]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices remained volatile due to seasonal demand declines and macroeconomic sentiment. As of May 30, LME copper was at $9,497/ton, down 1.22% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥77,600/ton, down 0.24% [2][34]. - **Aluminum**: Prices decreased slightly, with LME aluminum at $2,449/ton (down 0.71%) and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,070/ton (down 0.42%). Social inventory fell to 549,600 tons, down 6.47% [3][38]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc was at $2,630/ton, down 3.06%, while SHFE zinc was at ¥22,225/ton, up 0.05%. Inventory levels decreased for both exchanges [41]. - **Tin**: Prices fell significantly, with LME tin at $30,230/ton (down 7.45%) and SHFE tin at ¥250,300/ton (down 5.40%). Supply expectations have increased due to resumed operations in certain mines [45]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: The COMEX gold price rose to $3,313.10/oz (up 0.55%), while SHFE gold fell to ¥771.80/g (down 1.06%). The market anticipates a rise in U.S. inflation, providing a bullish outlook for gold [4][50]. Economic Indicators - U.S. durable goods orders fell by 6.3% in April, indicating weakening consumer spending and investment sentiment. The PCE price index showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, the lowest since March 2021 [4][28]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights a tightening supply for copper due to disruptions in production and a seasonal decline in demand. The macroeconomic environment is expected to exert more influence on copper prices in the short term [2][34]. Inventory Trends - Copper inventories showed mixed trends, with LME stocks at 149,900 tons (down 9.02%) and SHFE stocks at 105,800 tons (up 7.22%) [34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data from the industry report, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector.

⑥国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌0.48%报3284.40美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌0.65% 报33.10美元/盎司； ⑦纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.28%报99.8965，离岸人民币兑美元跌10个基点报7.1927； ⑧伦敦基本金属收盘普跌，LME期铜收跌32美元报9565美元/吨，LME期铝收跌16美元报2468美元/吨， LME期锌收跌18美元报2687美元/吨，LME期铅收跌3美元报1982美元/吨，LME期镍收跌398美元报 15011美元/吨，LME期锡收跌952美元报31636美元/吨； ⑨美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨1.16个基点报3.986%，3年期美债收益率涨2.55个基点报 3.953%，5年期美债收益率涨3.02个基点报4.064%，10年期美债收益率涨3.37个基点报4.477%，30年期 美债收益率涨2.47个基点报4.976%； ①美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.58%报42098.7点，标普500指数跌0.56%报5888.55点，纳指跌0.51% 报19100.94点； ②热门科技股多数下跌，特斯拉跌超1%，微软、亚马逊、英伟达、谷歌跌幅不足1%； ...

昨日A股 隔夜外盘 纽约股市三大股指5月27日全线上涨。截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨740.58 点，收于42343.65点，涨幅为1.78%；标准普尔500种股票指数上涨118.72点，收于5921.54点，涨幅为 2.05%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨461.95点，收于19199.16点，涨幅为2.47%。 5月27日A股三大指数集体调整，截至收盘，沪指跌0.18%，深成指跌0.61%，创业板指跌0.68%，北证50 指数涨0.08%。全市场成交额10241亿元，较上日缩量97亿元。全市场2500只个股飘绿。 欧洲三大股指5月27日涨跌不一。截至当天收盘，英国富时100种股票平均价格指数报收于8778.05点， 较前一交易日上涨60.08点，涨幅为0.69%；法国巴黎股市CAC40指数报收于7826.79点，较前一交易日 下跌1.34点，跌幅为0.02%；德国法兰克福股市DAX指数报收于24226.49点，较前一交易日上涨198.84 点，涨幅为0.83%。 板块题材上，新消费、草甘膦、农化制品板块领涨；工业金属、消费电子板块跌幅居前。 盘面上，新 消费概念领涨，保健饮品、休闲食品、珠宝、 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. - For stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures [9][10]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures [11][12]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds, and light - position participation is recommended [14][15]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, and light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds, and light - position participation is recommended [19][20]. - For ferroalloys, for manganese silicon, consider virtual call options at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom, and also consider virtual call options at low levels if there are large - scale spot losses [22]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [24][25]. - For fuel oil, consider going long on the main contract [27][28]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to oscillate [29][30]. - For natural rubber, it is expected to oscillate [31][32]. - For PVC, it is expected to continue oscillating [33][35]. - For urea, it is expected to oscillate strongly [36][37]. - For p - xylene (PX), short - term caution is recommended, and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and macro - policies [38]. - For PTA, consider range - bound operations and control risks [39]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to oscillate and adjust, and be cautious about the upside space [40]. - For short - fiber, it is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side, and be cautious when participating [41]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost side, and be cautious about cost price changes [42]. - For soda ash, it is expected to oscillate steadily [43][44]. - For glass, the market sentiment is weak, and the actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [45][46]. - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand is still relatively loose, and pay attention to the operation of enterprise equipment and the fluctuation of liquid chlorine prices [47][48]. - For pulp, it is expected to rebound in the short - term, and pay attention to whether international pulp mills start substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption stimulus policies [49]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly, and the price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [50][51]. - For copper, consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper [52][53]. - For tin, it is expected to oscillate weakly [54][55]. - For nickel, pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [56]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider the opportunity to widen the spread between rapeseed oil - palm oil and soybean oil - palm oil [57][58]. - For palm oil, consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [58][59]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, for soybean meal, wait and see; for soybean oil, consider virtual call options at the bottom support range [60][61]. - For cotton, wait for a pullback and then go long at low levels [62][65]. - For sugar, conduct range - bound operations [66][69]. - For apples, pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pullback [70][71]. - For live pigs, consider temporarily waiting and seeing [73][74]. - For eggs, consider shorting on rebounds [75][76]. - For corn and starch, temporarily wait and see [77][79]. - For logs, the market has no obvious driving force, and the spot transaction price is weak [80][81]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 142.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 36 billion yuan. The State Council executive meeting discussed relevant policies. The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is recommended to maintain caution [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. From January to April 2025, the number of newly - established foreign - invested enterprises increased, but the actual use of foreign capital decreased. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold and silver futures had different performances. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on EU and mobile phone products. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures [11][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The real - estate industry's decline has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is decreasing. The price may decline further, but the downside space is limited. Investors can short on rebounds [13][14][15]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The high demand and reduced supply support the price. The valuation is relatively high, and it is in an oscillating pattern. Investors can buy at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is weak. The price may continue to fall, and investors can short on rebounds [18][19][20]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. For manganese silicon, consider virtual call options; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated slightly. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, the number of oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC + may increase production. The oil market may be oversupplied, and it is recommended to wait and see [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated slightly. The global trade demand is recovering, and the Singapore inventory has increased. It is recommended to go long on the main contract [26][27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The supply pressure persists, but the demand and cost have improved. It is expected to oscillate [29][30]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined. The supply may increase, and the demand may improve. It is expected to oscillate [31][32]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the demand for exports is good. It is expected to continue oscillating [33][35]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures declined. The export policy has changed, and the agricultural demand is about to start. It is expected to oscillate strongly [36][37]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures declined. The supply has increased, and the cost support has weakened. Short - term caution is recommended [38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures declined. The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased. The cost support is insufficient. Consider range - bound operations [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply has decreased, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand has improved. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [40]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The supply has increased, the demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side [41]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. The cost support has weakened, the supply has increased, and the demand has improved. It is expected to follow the cost side [42]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures declined. Some devices are under maintenance, but the new device is about to be put into production. The demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate steadily [43][44]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures declined. The production line has decreased, and the actual supply - demand has no obvious driving force. The market sentiment is weak [45][46]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. Some devices are under maintenance, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to the operation of equipment and the price of liquid chlorine [47][48]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The inventory has decreased slightly, the downstream demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to rebound in the short - term [49]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly [50][51]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The Sino - US tariff affects the real economy, and the support policy is being implemented. It is recommended to go long on the main contract [52][53]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin declined. Some mines are resuming production, the supply may increase, and the demand is good. It is expected to oscillate weakly [54][55]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The Sino - US trade negotiation has made progress, the cost support is strong, but the demand is weak. Pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The Malaysian palm oil production may increase, and the domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively low level. Consider the opportunity to widen the spread between rapeseed oil - palm oil and soybean oil - palm oil [57][58]. Palm Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures are oscillating. The domestic import of rapeseed oil has increased, and the inventory is at a high or low level. Consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The US - EU trade friction may intensify, and the domestic soybean supply is abundant. For soybean meal, wait and see; for soybean oil, consider virtual call options at the bottom support range [60][61]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The Sino - US tariff suspension is beneficial to cotton exports. The US cotton planting rate and production are expected to change. Wait for a pullback and then go long at low levels [62][65]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures oscillated weakly. The Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic inventory is at a low level. Conduct range - bound operations [66][69]. Apples - On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. Some apple - producing areas may have reduced production, and the inventory is lower than last year. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pullback [70][71]. Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs has changed slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand support is weak. Consider temporarily waiting and seeing [72][73][74]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, the egg price declined. The egg - laying hen inventory is increasing, and the supply is sufficient. Consider shorting on rebounds [75][76]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The US - EU tariff threat affects the US corn price. The domestic corn supply is under pressure, and the demand is stable. Temporarily wait and see [77][79]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures declined. The expected arrival of logs has increased, the demand is weak, and the price is running weakly [80][81].

Group 1 - The DAX index in Frankfurt experienced significant volatility, closing down 1.54% at 23,629.58 points, with an intraday high of 24,149.08 points and a low of 23,274.85 points [1] - The market initially rose due to slightly better-than-expected German GDP data, but concerns over a potential new round of transatlantic trade war emerged after President Trump announced punitive tariffs on EU goods starting June 1 [1] - The automotive, luxury goods, and metals sectors were notably impacted, with the STOXX 600 automotive manufacturers index dropping over 3.5%, and major companies like Porsche, BMW, Volkswagen, and Mercedes-Benz seeing declines exceeding 3% [1] Group 2 - Analysts highlight that the EU's negotiation strategy will be crucial, as the current unstable environment complicates market pricing [2] - There are concerns that the ongoing trade war could depress profits and potentially lead to inflation [2] - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, which will serve as a key economic indicator amid ongoing worries about European economic growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sales momentum is declining, while passenger car sales remain resilient; construction demand still needs improvement, and concerns over external demand are marginally easing, with an increase in China's export orders to the U.S. and a rebound in port cargo throughput and freight rates [1]. Group 1: Real Estate and Consumer Sales - Real estate sales continue to be weak, with a 10.7% year-on-year decline in transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities; first-tier cities saw a 12.4% increase, while second-tier cities experienced a 30.2% decrease, and third-tier cities had a 7.0% increase [2]. - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 30% year-on-year from May 6 to May 11, driven by national subsidy policies and promotional events [2]. - The demand for durable consumer goods, particularly automobiles, remains strong, while the film box office revenue has significantly declined both year-on-year and month-on-month [1][2]. Group 2: Construction and Manufacturing - The construction demand remains weak, influenced by local rainfall, with resource prices showing divergence; rebar and hot-rolled coil prices increased by 1.6% and 2.5% week-on-week, respectively [3]. - Manufacturing activity has seen a rebound, with significant increases in operating rates for the automotive sector and a 5.6% week-on-week increase in the operating rate for petroleum asphalt facilities [3]. - The prices of copper and aluminum increased by 0.9% and 2.8% week-on-week, respectively, supported by improved demand expectations due to the easing of U.S.-China tariff tensions [3]. Group 3: Logistics and Transportation - Long-distance passenger transport demand continues to decline, with metro passenger volume in major cities showing a 4.6% increase year-on-year but a 0.3% decrease month-on-month [4]. - The number of domestic flights decreased by 2.3% week-on-week but increased by 2.0% year-on-year, while international flights saw a 4.0% decrease week-on-week but a 17.1% increase year-on-year, recovering to 81.8% of the levels seen in 2019 [4]. - The SCFI/BDI indices increased by 10.0% and 6.9% week-on-week, respectively, indicating a recovery in port cargo throughput and container volume [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market's risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new productive forces" on dips. For single - sided trading, it is recommended to buy IF index long contracts on dips, and there is no recommended arbitrage strategy [2][3][4]. - The LPR cut is in line with expectations, and the deposit rate cut by large banks may lead to deposits flowing to non - banks. The bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure, and it is advisable to wait for opportunities after a pullback and mainly enter the market on dips [6]. - The continuous expansion of the US fiscal deficit is positive for the medium - term price trend of gold, and it is recommended to go long on gold on dips. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see for now [7][8]. - For various metals, their prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and external policies, and different price trends and trading suggestions are presented [10][11][12]. - For energy and chemical products, factors such as supply and demand, production, and inventory affect their prices, and corresponding trading strategies are given [34][38][40]. - For agricultural products, the prices are affected by factors such as production, supply and demand, and policies, and trading strategies are also proposed [51][52][53]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.83%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1173.4 billion yuan, an increase of 3.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The margin trading balance increased by 2.254 billion yuan [2]. - **Macro News**: Shanghai will promote state - owned listed companies to improve market value management systems; many joint - stock banks cut deposit rates; Japan may accept US tariff cuts, and India and the US are discussing a trade agreement [2]. - **Valuation**: The price - earnings ratios of CSI 300, CSI 500, etc. are 12.65, 29.04, etc.; the price - to - book ratios are 1.32, 1.79, etc.; the dividend yields are 3.44%, 1.81%, etc. [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new productive forces" on dips. For single - sided trading, buy IF index long contracts on dips [3][4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The TL main contract fell 0.08%, the T main contract was flat, the TF main contract rose 0.03%, and the TS main contract rose 0.02% [5]. - **News**: China and ASEAN completed the negotiation of the FTA 3.0 version. The central bank conducted 157 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 65 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The LPR cut is in line with expectations, and the bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure. It is advisable to wait for opportunities after a pullback and mainly enter the market on dips [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold rose 0.92%, Shanghai silver rose 0.86%, etc. [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The continuous expansion of the US fiscal deficit is positive for the medium - term price trend of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold on dips. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see for now [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper fluctuated, with LME copper down 0.71%. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price is expected to move down. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 77000 - 78400 yuan/ton [10]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum oscillated and declined, with LME aluminum down 0.22%. The consumption season is light, and the price is expected to be volatile. The reference range for domestic aluminum is 20000 - 20260 yuan/ton [11]. - **Zinc**: The price of zinc rose 0.76%. The zinc concentrate market is expected to be in surplus, and the zinc price has a downward risk in the medium term [12]. - **Lead**: The price of lead rose 0.28%. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 16300 - 17800 yuan/ton in the medium term, and the short - term price is strong [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel oscillated. The cost of nickel is expected to loosen, and the price is bearish. The reference range for Shanghai nickel is 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Tin**: The price of tin rose 1.13%. The supply is expected to loosen, and the price is expected to move down. The reference range for domestic tin is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate was flat. The supply and demand lack strong drivers, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The reference range for the 2507 contract is 60400 - 61800 yuan/ton [16][17]. - **Alumina**: The price of alumina rose 3.55%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to supply disturbances. The reference range for the AO2509 contract is 2900 - 3500 yuan/ton [18]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel rose 0.23%. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [19]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The price of rebar rose 0.098%, and the price of hot - rolled coil rose 0.281%. The demand for plates and exports may strengthen marginally in the short term, but the long - term demand is still under pressure [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rose 0.48%. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [23]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass decreased, and the price of soda ash was flat. The glass price is expected to be weak, and the soda ash price is also expected to be weak in the medium term [24][25]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The price of manganese silicon rose 0.24%, and the price of ferrosilicon fell 0.32%. It is recommended to wait and see for both, as the demand is expected to weaken [26][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon fell 0.94%. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see and not to buy on dips prematurely [31][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The EU launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires. It is recommended to have a neutral or bearish view and operate short - term. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [34][37]. - **Crude Oil**: The price of WTI crude oil fell 2.04%, and the price of Brent crude oil fell 1.55%. It is considered that the oil price is in the high - valuation range, and it is advisable to short on rallies [38][39]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol rose. The supply is weakening, and it is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the anti - arbitrage opportunity [40]. - **Urea**: The price of urea rose. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand booming. It is recommended to wait and see and consider buying on dips after a significant pullback [41]. - **PVC**: The price of PVC rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [42]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol rose. The inventory is decreasing, and the price may be affected by supply and demand changes. Short - term risks need attention [43][44]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA rose. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is improving. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [45]. - **Para - xylene**: The price of para - xylene rose. It is in the maintenance season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [46]. - **Polyethylene**: The price of polyethylene was flat. The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to oscillate [47][48]. - **Polypropylene**: The price of polypropylene rose. The supply is stable, and the demand is seasonal. The price is expected to be volatile and bearish [49]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The price of hogs was stable. The short - term price may be stable, and the medium - term is bearish. It is recommended to sell on rallies [51]. - **Eggs**: The price of eggs was stable or decreased. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts [52]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of soybean meal was volatile. The short - term supply is large, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [53][55]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price of oils and fats was affected by multiple factors. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [56][58]. - **Sugar**: The price of sugar oscillated. The international supply is improving, and the domestic price may weaken [59]. - **Cotton**: The price of cotton rose. The market confidence is boosted, and the price is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term [60][61].