Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, concerns about government fiscal conditions have intensified, leading to multi - year high yields on UK and French government bonds, a decline in the pound and euro, and a rebound in the US dollar. The global risk appetite has cooled. In China, the official manufacturing PMI in August improved slightly to 49.4 but remained below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. The extension of the 90 - day tariff truce between China and the US and the increased expectation of US monetary easing have reduced short - term external risks and increased domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a marginal increase in short - term macro - upward drivers. [2] - For different assets: the stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and cautious observation is advised; the black commodity sector is expected to be slightly weaker in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended; the non - ferrous sector is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; the energy and chemical sector is expected to rebound in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended; precious metals are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and cautious long positions are recommended. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, concerns about government finances have led to high bond yields in the UK and France, a decline in the pound and euro, and a rise in the US dollar. A US federal appellate court's ruling on tariffs and the assessment of Trump's tariff policy have cooled global risk appetite. In China, the August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was below the boom - bust line. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption. The extension of the tariff truce and US easing expectations have increased domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro - upward drivers strengthening. [2] - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as communications, electronics, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was below the boom - bust line. Policy support and reduced external risks have increased domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations. Short - term cautious observation is recommended. [3] - **Government Bonds**: Government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and cautious observation is advised. [2] Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to be weak on Tuesday, with a slight increase in trading volume. Real - world demand continued to weaken, but there may be a seasonal improvement in September - October. Supply remained high, with the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in August at 2.115 million tons, a 2% month - on - month increase, and a 4% increase in steel inventories. Although supply may decline temporarily due to production restrictions, steel mills are likely to resume production next week. Coke price increases were blocked and instead decreased. The steel market is likely to remain weak in the short term. [4] - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, the spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly, and the futures price oscillated. Due to production restrictions, steel mills' demand decreased, and they mainly replenished inventory on a just - in - time basis. Last week, the pig iron output was over 2.4 million tons but decreased significantly. The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 2.41 million tons to 35.56 million tons this week, and the arrival volume increased by 1.827 million tons. The supply of mainstream Australian powder was stable, but traders were reluctant to sell at low prices. The port inventory decreased slightly by 120,000 tons. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. [6] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Tuesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,680 - 5,730 yuan/ton. Manganese ore prices were weak. Inner Mongolia's production was stable, with new high - silicon production this month and planned new capacity in October. Ningxia's production was stable, and some southern factories were in losses. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas was 5,150 - 5,300 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade was 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton. Although silicon iron profits were compressed, electricity costs provided support, and producers were reluctant to cut production. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term. [7] - **Soda Ash**: On Tuesday, the main soda ash contract oscillated. Last week, the weekly production of soda ash decreased. With new capacity coming online, supply pressure remained, and the oversupply situation persisted, with new installations planned for the fourth quarter. Demand was stable week - on - week, but overall support from downstream demand was weak. Profits decreased week - on - week, and the industry was in a loss. Soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. [8] - **Glass**: On Tuesday, the main glass contract oscillated. Last week, glass production was stable, with an increase in the start - up rate and the number of production lines. Terminal real estate demand remained weak, but downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, and overall demand was stable. Profits increased slightly. Glass is expected to oscillate in the short term due to stable supply and limited demand growth. [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: On Tuesday, concerns about the UK economy and rising global bond yields led to a rise in the UK's long - term borrowing costs and a fall in the pound against the US dollar. With the decline of factors such as export rush, over - installation in the photovoltaic industry, and the diminishing marginal effect of the trade - in policy, domestic copper demand will weaken. However, the expected Fed rate cut in September may boost copper prices temporarily. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, the closing price of aluminum rose slightly but fell slightly at the end of the session, with a decrease in open interest of 7,398 lots. Aluminum inventory increased to 623,000 tons, exceeding the previous expectation of 600,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,450 tons, reaching a neutral level. In the medium term, the upside potential of aluminum prices is limited, but in the short term, there is still a peak - season expectation, and there is no strong downward driver, so it is expected to oscillate. The recent rise in gold prices may have a limited positive impact on copper and aluminum prices. [10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising. It is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing slowly. Considering cost support, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand. [10] - **Tin**: The combined start - up rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 0.21% to 59.43%. Some smelters in Yunnan were under maintenance, and the supply of tin ore was tight in reality but expected to ease. The import of African tin ore decreased in July due to transportation and power issues. Terminal demand was weak, and the inventory decreased by 117 tons to 9,161 tons last week. As prices rose, downstream procurement slowed down. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, supported by smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations but restricted by high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weak demand. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 fell 4.3% to a settlement price of 74,180 yuan/ton, with an increase in open interest of 19,567 lots to a total of 761,400 lots. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,250 yuan/ton, a 1,750 - yuan decrease. The price of Australian lithium spodumene was 860 US dollars/ton, a 20 - dollar decrease. The production profit of purchasing lithium spodumene was 50 yuan/ton. Lithium carbonate inventory is gradually decreasing, and it is expected to oscillate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook. [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Tuesday, the main industrial silicon contract 2511 rose 1.13% to a settlement price of 8,515 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest of 12,531 lots to 491,200 lots. The price of oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9,100 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase. The futures price was at a discount of 630 yuan/ton. The price difference between 421 and 553 in East China was 300 yuan/ton. With polysilicon prices oscillating at a high level, industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term. [12] - **Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the main polysilicon contract 2511 rose 3.97% to a settlement price of 51,985 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest of 8,457 lots to 318,000 lots. The price of N - type polysilicon was 50,500 yuan/ton, a 1,000 - yuan increase. The price of P - type cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of N - type silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece, a 0.01 - yuan increase. The price of single - crystal Topcon battery cells (M10) was 0.292 yuan/watt, unchanged. The price of N - type modules (centralized): 182mm was 0.66 yuan/watt, unchanged. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 6,870, a decrease of 10 lots. Rumors of a "industry restructuring plan" by GCL Technology have increased market expectations of capacity integration. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality. [13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Technical buying and supply disruptions drove the rebound of crude oil prices, with the largest increase since the end of July. Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries have affected crude oil supply, and the US will study sanctions on Russia this week. The Cushing inventory is still low. However, attention should be paid to the OPEC+ production decision this Sunday. [14][15] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices rise, the asphalt futures price also increases, driven by cost factors in the short term. Currently, asphalt is still weak, with a slightly decreasing basis. The social inventory has not decreased significantly, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly. Profits have recovered slightly, and the start - up rate has increased significantly. In the future, crude oil prices may be affected by OPEC+ production increases, and the follow - up increase of asphalt prices needs to be monitored. [15] - **PX**: Although crude oil prices are rising, the increase in downstream petrochemical products is limited. The low start - up rate of PTA has kept the PX price weak, supported only by maintenance plans. The PX supply is still tight, with the PXN spread decreasing slightly to 251 US dollars and the PX foreign price rebounding to 848 US dollars. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA installations. [15] - **PTA**: Recently, the start - up rate of PTA has dropped to a seasonal low due to environmental protection requirements and low processing fees. The high basis has weakened, and the processing fee has recovered, indicating a high possibility of supply recovery. The demand growth has slowed down, with a downstream start - up rate of only 89.8%. PTA is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the recovery risks of crude oil and downstream demand. [16] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to problems with overseas installations, the import forecast has been low recently, leading to a significant decrease in port inventory to 440,000 tons. The load of syngas - based production units is already high, and there is limited room for further increase. The impact of the petrochemical industry's capacity adjustment on ethylene glycol is relatively limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, but attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream start - up rates and crude oil cost fluctuations. [16] - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber rose with the sector but then declined slightly. The overall strength of the polyester sector is still insufficient. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and the start - up rate of short - fiber has rebounded slightly, with a limited increase in inventory. Further inventory reduction depends on the continuous recovery of terminal orders. In the medium term, short - fiber is expected to follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies. [16] - **Methanol**: The restart of inland installations and concentrated arrivals have increased supply pressure. As the port price falls, the reflux window has opened, providing some support to the spot market. MTO installations are planned to restart, and the traditional downstream peak season is approaching, indicating a marginal improvement in the fundamentals. However, the oversupply situation remains, and high inventory continues to suppress prices. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. [17] - **PP**: The start - up rate of PP installations has increased, and new capacity has been put into operation, resulting in a record - high weekly supply. The downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, but demand growth is weak. Although there is policy support, the downside is limited. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly. [17] - **LLDPE**: Currently, maintenance has relieved some supply pressure, and downstream demand is gradually increasing, with a decrease in inventory. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. However, as maintenance ends and supply recovers, pressure will increase, and attention should be paid to the synchronous growth of demand. The price is expected to oscillate. [17] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1,040.00, a decrease of 14.50 or 1.38% (settlement price: 1,041.00). As of August 31, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. The pod - setting rate was 94%, and the leaf - falling rate was 11%. The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans as of August 28, 2025, was 472,914 tons, higher than the market expectation. Since the beginning of this crop year, the cumulative export inspection volume has reached 49.763188 million tons, higher than the same period last year. [19] - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures price is likely to be under pressure in the short term. In China, the increase in imported soybean sales and the high procurement and start - up rate of oilseeds in the third quarter have increased the inventory pressure. The basis is difficult to repair in the short term. The rapeseed meal market is also weak, and attention should be paid to the trade policy between China and Canada. [20] - **Oils**: Overnight, the CBOT soybean oil futures price rose by 1% due to the decline in soybean oil inventory. The BMD palm oil futures price may open higher, supported by strong palm oil exports from Malaysia and a weakening ringgit. According to high - frequency data, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 15.37% (AmSpec) and 30.53% (SGS) in August 2025 compared with the same period last year. Ukraine has imposed a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseeds until January 1, 2030, and the tax rate will decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5%. [20] - **Corn**: New - season corn has started to be harvested in Liaoning, and farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. The futures market has rebounded recently, which is beneficial to market sentiment. This year, there is no pressure from a large - scale arrival of corn at ports, and the inventory at ports and downstream enterprises is low. The estimated cost of new - season corn in North China is 1,960 - 2,020 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang, it is at least 2,100 yuan/ton. Referring to the policy - supported wheat market, it is expected that during the new - season corn harvest period, farmers will be reluctant to sell when the price in North China is below 2,220 yuan/ton and in the northern ports is below 2,130 yuan/ton, and traders will be more willing to store corn. It is estimated that the opening price of the main C2511 contract may be slightly higher than last year, and if there are no unexpected weather risks during the harvest, the main operating range of the opening - price market may be 2,150 - 2,250 yuan/ton. [21] - **Pigs**: In September, the supply and demand of pigs will both increase. In August, large - scale farms increased pre

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent trading logic is related to the production - restriction news of steel mills in Tangshan before the September 3rd military parade, which leads to a decline in the demand expectation for coke and ferroalloy furnace materials. Also, the previous position - limit on coking coal contracts by the exchange reduces its liquidity, and the hype sentiment of anti - involution fades, causing most commodities to fall from their highs. Ferroalloys follow the price of coking coal and decline. However, the ferroalloy price has dropped to the level at the beginning of the anti - involution proposal, and the possibility of further decline is limited. There is still bottom support, but under the current situation of high operating rates and weak downstream demand, there is pressure on the upside [4]. - Ferroalloy profits have been continuously declining. The current production is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years, with weak driving force for further production increase. There is a possibility of production reduction driven by profit decline. With the production restriction of steel mills in some areas before the parade and no obvious improvement in demand, ferroalloy inventory may change from destocking to stockpiling, and there is still pressure on the upside [4]. - The price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese (semi - coke and manganese ore) is gradually expanding. It is more cost - effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons, but the price of coal - based products fluctuates greatly. It is advisable to go long on the 01 price difference of the two silicons at - 400 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.97% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 53.6%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 15.39% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 27.8% [3]. Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price decline, they can sell SF2511 and SM2601 futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy SF2511 and SM2601 futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: The demand for silicon iron in five major steel products is 20,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%. The silicon iron warehouse receipts are 99,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%, and the total inventory is 162,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [6]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon - manganese industry. The demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products is 126,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The enterprise inventory is 149,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.49%, the warehouse receipts are 332,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05%, and the total inventory is 481,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [7]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: The ferroalloy supply is at a high level in the same period of the past five years, with great supply pressure. Without improvement in downstream demand, its growth space is limited. The enterprise inventory is 62,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - related sector declines, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand. The silicon - manganese demand is relatively weak. The production is 213,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the enterprise operating rate in China is 47%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [7]. Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and warehouse receipts are provided, showing the price changes from September 2, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Similar data including basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and warehouse receipts are provided, along with the price changes of related raw materials [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is good, but the prices of finished steel products are oscillating. The demand for finished steel products is weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weakness of the market is becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material side is more stable than the finished products, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. [3] - The price of iron ore is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term. The impact of production restrictions on Tangshan steel mills on the weekly molten iron output is expected to be significant, and attention should be paid to the recovery of molten iron production after the end of the restrictions. [6] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to be weak. For speculative trading, it is recommended to wait and see. The market is gradually shifting from trading based on expectations to trading based on fundamentals, and the prices of the black sector may continue to be under pressure in the future. [10][11] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term, with the range between 8,100 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon is expected to be highly volatile, and it may continue to rise if there is continuous positive news. [15][16] - The price of glass is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, and its valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long term, it will fluctuate with the macro - sentiment. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center is expected to gradually rise in the long term, but its upside space is limited. [18][19] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,117 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.064%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,298 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous trading day. [2] - **Market Situation**: The supply of rebar increased, demand improved slightly but remained weak overall, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand declined, and inventory continued to increase. [3] Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 771.50 yuan/ton, up 0.72% (+5.50), with a position change of - 948 hands to 45.30 million hands. The weighted position was 75.97 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 769 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 45.42 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.56%. [5] - **Market Situation**: Overseas iron ore shipments increased, the daily average molten iron production decreased, the profitability of steel mills continued to decline, port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills decreased. [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On September 2, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.14% at 5,744 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.07% at 5,528 yuan/ton. [8] - **Market Situation**: The price of manganese silicon is expected to remain weak before mid - October, and the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions. For speculative trading, it is recommended to wait and see. [10][12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8,470 yuan/ton, down 0.29% (-25). The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 51,875 yuan/ton, down 0.78% (-410). [14][15] - **Market Situation**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, and the price of polysilicon is expected to be highly volatile. [15][16] Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1,130 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased. The spot price of soda ash was 1,165 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased. [18][19] - **Market Situation**: The price of glass is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, and the price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term and its price center may gradually rise in the long term. [18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - The report presents the latest prices, daily and weekly changes of various silicon - iron and silicon - manganese products in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, etc. For example, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon - iron is 5200, with a daily change of - 50 and a weekly change of - 100 [1]. - It also shows the historical price trends of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese products from 2021 to 2025, including market prices, export and import prices, and basis differences [2][6]. Supply - The supply - related data includes the production volume of 136 Chinese silicon - iron enterprises (monthly and weekly), capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, and the production volume of silicon - manganese in China (weekly) [4][6]. - Information about the export prices of silicon - iron at Tianjin Port and the production and demand - related factors such as the production volume forecast of Chinese crude steel is also provided [4]. Demand - Demand - related data involves the demand volume of silicon - manganese in China (in ten thousand tons), the procurement volume and price of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the production volume of stainless - steel crude steel in China (monthly) [4][6][7]. Inventory - Inventory data includes the inventory of 60 sample silicon - iron enterprises in China and different regions (weekly), the inventory of silicon - manganese (including warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and total inventory), and the average available days of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese inventory in different regions [5][7]. Cost and Profit - Cost - related data includes the electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, the market price of semi - coking coal in Shaanxi, and the production cost of silicon - iron in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia [5]. - Profit - related data shows the production profit of semi - coking coal in China, the profit of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese in different regions, and the export profit of 75% silicon - iron [5][7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Overall, the report is bearish on most varieties, with "★★" indicating a stronger bearish sentiment and "★" indicating a relatively weaker bearish sentiment or a situation with some potential for short - term rebound. For example,螺纹钢,热卷,焦炭,焦煤 are rated "★★" (bearish), while 铁矿石 is rated "★" (hold short positions), and 锰硅,硅铁 are rated "★" (potential short - term technical rebound) [1]. Core Views - The steel industry's growth - stabilization plan has limited positive impact. The overall supply - demand situation of steel and its raw materials is tending to be loose, and most varieties face downward risks in the medium term [1][4][5]. Summary by Variety Steel Products 螺纹钢 - **View**: The growth - stabilization plan for the steel industry has limited positive effects. Blast furnace profits have decreased but remain positive, and hot metal production is stable at a high level. Demand has increased month - on - month but is still lower than production, leading to an increase in inventory and a looser supply - demand balance. The "anti - involution" atmosphere has faded, and there is a risk of further decline after policy implementation [1][4][5]. 热卷 - **View**: Production and apparent demand have decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory has increased slightly. The fundamentals are relatively stable. The impact of production restrictions during the parade is limited, and the overall supply - demand situation is tending to be loose. The growth - stabilization policy for the steel industry has limited positive effects, and there is a risk of decline in the medium term [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - **View**: Hot metal production has declined, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are accumulating. Overseas ore shipments have increased while arrivals have decreased, and the fundamentals are moderately weak. Macro sentiment has cooled, trading has returned to fundamentals, and ore prices are oscillating weakly [1][6][7]. Coke - **View**: Spot coke has started the first round of price cuts, and the game between steel and coke enterprises is obvious. Affected by the parade, some coke enterprises in certain regions have production - restriction policies, and the supply side has contracted marginally. Hot metal production remains stable at a high level. The "anti - involution" atmosphere has faded, and there is a risk of correction in the medium term [1][10][11]. Coking Coal - **View**: Affected by the parade, safety inspections in some regions have been upgraded, and coking coal production has recovered slowly. Although hot metal production is still at a high level, the downstream restocking speed has slowed down, market sentiment has weakened, and Mongolian coal auctions have had multiple unsuccessful bids. The steel industry's growth - stabilization policy focuses on stable supply for raw materials, with limited positive factors. In the context of the main contract's premium over the warehouse - receipt cost, there is a risk of downward correction in the medium term [1][14][15]. Ferroalloys 锰硅 - **View**: Weekly production continues to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down. Demand has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and enterprise inventory is 149,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons month - on - month. Steel mills' restocking in September is about to start, and attention should be paid to the new round of steel procurement trends. The manganese ore quotes from Comilog and Union Mining for China in October are the same as the previous round. The cost side still has some support. The fundamental contradictions need to accumulate, and there may be a short - term technical rebound, with a cautious bullish view [1][16][17]. 硅铁 - **View**: Weekly production has decreased, demand has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and enterprise inventory is 62,910 tons, an increase of 830 tons month - on - month. The fundamental contradictions need to accumulate, and there may be a short - term technical rebound, with a cautious bullish view [1][16][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent trading logic is related to the production restrictions on steel mills in Tangshan before the September 3 military parade, leading to a decline in the demand expectation for coke and ferroalloy furnace materials. The previous position limits on coking coal contracts by the exchange have reduced its liquidity, and the hype sentiment has faded, causing most commodities to fall from their highs. Ferroalloys have followed the downward trend of coking coal prices. However, ferroalloy prices have dropped to the level at the beginning of the anti - involution campaign, and the possibility of further decline is limited. There is still support at the bottom, but due to high operating rates and weak downstream demand, there is pressure on the upside. Ferroalloy profits have been declining, and production is at a relatively high level in the past five years, with weak incentives for further production increases and a possibility of production cuts. With production restrictions on steel mills before the parade and no significant improvement in demand, ferroalloy inventories may shift from destocking to stockpiling. The price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, semi - coke and manganese ore, is gradually widening, and it is cost - effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. It is recommended to go long on the 01 price difference of the two silicons at - 400 [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.32% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 54.1%. The monthly price range forecast for silicomanganese is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.84% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 30.1% [3]. Ferroalloy Hedging Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about ferroalloy price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15% and an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM [3]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventories and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3]. 利多解读 Ferrosilicon - The demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products is 2.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%. Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts are 9.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%, and the total inventory is 16.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [7]. Silicomanganese - The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicomanganese industry. The demand for silicomanganese in five major steel products is 12.67 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. Silicomanganese enterprise inventories are 14.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.49%, warehouse receipts are 33.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05%, and the total inventory is 48.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [8]. 利空解读 Ferrosilicon - The supply of ferroalloys is at a high level in the past five years, with significant supply pressure. In the absence of improved downstream demand, its growth space is limited. Ferrosilicon enterprise inventories are 6.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [8]. Silicomanganese - In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - related sector has declined, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak silicomanganese demand. Silicomanganese production is 21.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the Chinese enterprise operating rate is 47%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [8]. Daily Data Ferrosilicon - On September 1, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 18, 01 - 05 was - 124, 05 - 09 was 284, 09 - 01 was - 160. Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline compared to August 29 and August 25. The number of warehouse receipts was 19331, a decrease compared to previous days [7][8]. Silicomanganese - On September 1, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 294, 01 - 05 was - 44, 05 - 09 was 138, 09 - 01 was - 94, and the price difference between the two silicons was - 204. Spot prices in different regions also declined compared to previous days. The number of warehouse receipts was 65760, a decrease compared to previous days [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment is gradually cooling down, and the fundamental driving force of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon is limited. The price centers of both have moved down month-on-month. In the short term, they are expected to fluctuate with the overall black market, and future attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [5][6][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Manganese Silicon 3.1.1 Supply - In August, manganese silicon production continued to increase, with weekly production rising for more than ten consecutive weeks. By the end of August, weekly production was 213,000 tons, a 1% week-on-week increase and a 17% year-on-year increase. The operating rates of major production areas all increased to varying degrees, with the overall operating rate in the north still relatively high, approaching 70% [5]. 3.1.2 Demand - Crude steel production decreased significantly, while hot metal production remained stable. The weekly demand for manganese silicon from sample steel mills was basically flat week-on-week. Steel mills' willingness to stock up was limited. In August, the number of days of available manganese silicon inventory in steel mills was 14.98 days, a low level in the same period in recent years [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The inventory of sample enterprises decreased month-on-month and was basically the same year-on-year. By the end of August, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 149,000 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons in the latest week and a total decrease of 15,000 tons in August [5]. 3.1.4 Cost - The prices of major raw materials remained stable, and the overall production cost increased slightly month-on-month. The port manganese ore inventory was stable at around 4.4 million tons, and the port manganese ore price did not change much. The price of rich manganese slag increased month-on-month, and the spot production cost of manganese silicon increased by 0 - 100 yuan/ton month-on-month [5]. 3.1.5 Summary - Market sentiment is gradually cooling down, and the fundamental driving force of manganese silicon is limited. The price center has moved down month-on-month. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate with the overall black market, and there is an expectation of a certain improvement in downstream demand in September [6]. 3.2 Silicon Iron 3.2.1 Supply - Silicon iron supply continued to increase. In August, there were 77 silicon iron enterprises in production nationwide, with 261 ore furnaces in operation. The average operating rate in August was 52.74%, a 1.15% increase from July. The estimated production was 479,300 tons, a 18,900 - ton increase from July, a 4.11% month-on-month increase, and a 24,500 - ton increase from the same period last year, a 5.39% year-on-year increase [8]. 3.2.2 Demand - Steel demand did not show a significant increase, and steel mills' willingness to stock up was limited. In July, the production of metal magnesium decreased month-on-month, but the absolute value was still at a high level in the same period in recent years [8][82]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The inventory of sample silicon iron enterprises decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was gradually weakening. By the end of August, the inventory of 60 sample enterprises was 62,910 tons, a decrease of 2,270 tons from mid - August [8][94]. 3.2.4 Cost - The spot production cost increased this month, but the support for prices was limited. The price of semi - coke small materials increased significantly, with a month - on - month increase of about 10% to 650 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2.5 Summary - The overall fundamental driving force is limited, market sentiment is gradually cooling down, and the center of the ferrosilicon futures price has moved down. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate with the overall black market, and future attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and electricity price performance [9]. 3.3 Price and Related Indicators 3.3.1 Futures Price - In August, the price centers of both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures contracts moved down month - on - month. The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract on August 28 was 5,842 yuan/ton, a 3.09% month - on - month decrease; the closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract was 5,624 yuan/ton, a 3.70% month - on - month decrease [10][12]. 3.3.2 Spot Price - Spot prices in various regions also decreased to varying degrees, with the average decline of ferrosilicon spot prices greater than that of ferromanganese [13]. 3.3.3 Basis - The basis of ferrosilicon fluctuated and strengthened [18]. 3.3.4 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of ferromanganese decreased by 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, while that of ferrosilicon increased by 6 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spread between ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased by 30 yuan/ton month - on - month [24][25]. 3.3.5 Production Cost - The production cost of ferrosilicon increased significantly this month, greater than the average increase in the cost of ferromanganese [27]. 3.3.6 Production Profit - The spot production costs of both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon decreased month - on - month, and the production profits also decreased [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, prices vary by region and grade, with recent price changes in different regions such as a -70 yuan/day change for Ningxia 72 and -50 yuan/day for Inner Mongolia 72 [1]. - For silicon manganese, prices also vary by region and grade, and there are price changes in different regions, like Inner Mongolia 6517 with a -20 yuan/day change [3]. - Price trends for silicon iron and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented in multiple graphs for different regions and grades [2][6]. Supply - The production of silicon iron by 136 Chinese enterprises (monthly and weekly data) is presented, with data from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - The production of silicon manganese in China (weekly data) and the procurement volume and price of silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly data) from 2021 - 2025 are shown [6]. Demand - The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, including the demand for silicon manganese (in ten thousand tons, Steel Union caliber) [4][7]. - Data on the production of related products such as crude steel, stainless - steel crude steel, and metal magnesium are provided, which can reflect the demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese [4]. Inventory - Inventory data of silicon iron from 60 sample enterprises in China (weekly data) and in different regions like Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are presented [5]. - Inventory data of silicon manganese, including the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and total inventory, are shown from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Cost and Profit - Cost and profit data of silicon iron and silicon manganese are provided, including production costs, spot profits, and export profits in different regions from 2021 - 2025 [5][7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend judgments and fundamental data for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to have wide - range fluctuations, while ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have weak fluctuations due to poor market sentiment [2][4][6][7][10][13][15]. Summary of Each Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Judgment**: Wide - range fluctuations due to repeated macro - expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2601 contract was 787.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.38%. Imported ore prices generally decreased, with Kafan (65%) down 2 yuan/ton to 891 yuan/ton. The trend strength is 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend Judgment**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar, the RB2510 contract closed at 3,090 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton or 0.83%. For hot - rolled coils, the HC2510 contract closed at 3,355 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.21%. The trend strength for both is 0 [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Judgment**: Weak fluctuations due to poor market sentiment [2][10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon 2511 contract was 5,566 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton. The closing price of the silicomanganese 2511 contract was 5,776 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton. The trend strength for both is 0 [10]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Judgment**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The JM2601 coking coal contract closed at 1,151 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton or 2.0%. The J2601 coke contract closed at 1,643 yuan/ton, down 29.5 yuan/ton or 1.8%. The trend strength for both is 0 [13]. Logs - **Trend Judgment**: Repeated fluctuations [2][15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 log contract was 777, down 1.6% from the previous day and 3.3% from the previous week. The trend strength is 0 [16].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints The market sentiment for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is weak, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Ferrosilicon 2511 closed at 5566, down 58 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 260,904 and an open interest of 222,851. Ferrosilicon 2601 closed at 5534, down 70, with a trading volume of 62,463 and an open interest of 100,482 [1]. - Silicomanganese 2511 closed at 5776, down 52, with a trading volume of 74,310 and an open interest of 104,052. Silicomanganese 2601 closed at 5792, down 50, with a trading volume of 207,581 and an open interest of 325,851 [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of ferrosilicon:FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan/ton, down 50. The price of silicomanganese:FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan/ton, down 20 [1]. - The price of manganese ore:Mn44 block was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - For ferrosilicon, the spot - 11 futures spread was - 266 yuan/ton, up 8; the 2511 - 2601 spread was 32 yuan/ton, up 12 [1]. - For silicomanganese, the spot - 01 futures spread was - 92 yuan/ton, up 32; the 2511 - 2601 spread was - 16 yuan/ton, down 2 [1]. - The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2511 - ferrosilicon 2511 was 210 yuan/ton, up 6; the silicomanganese 2601 - ferrosilicon 2601 spread was 258 yuan/ton, up 20 [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - On August 29, the price of ferrosilicon 72 in Shaanxi was 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton (down 50), and in Inner Mongolia 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton. The price of ferrosilicon 75 in Shaanxi was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton. The FOB price of ferrosilicon 72 was 1040 - 1060 dollars/ton (up 10), and that of 75 was 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton [2]. - The northern quotation of silicomanganese 6517 was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [2]. - In August, there were 13 operating ferrosilicon enterprises in Ningxia, with 41 operating submerged arc furnaces. The operating rate was 46.59%, the same as in July, and the output was expected to be 12.46 million tons, an increase of 0.23 million tons from July, with a capacity utilization rate of 53.57% [2]. - As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port was 362.7 million tons, up 1.42 million tons; at Qinzhou Port was 73.68 million tons, down 3.57 million tons; at Caofeidian Port was 0 million tons; at Fangchenggang Port was 4 million tons, unchanged. As of August 29, the total manganese ore inventory was 440.38 million tons, down 2.15 million tons [3]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is also 0 [3].