Key Points - The urban investment bond market in the first half of 2025 experienced a significant decline, with issuance reaching 2.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.15%, marking a three-year low. The net financing was negative at -1200.04 billion yuan, with four consecutive months of net outflow from March to June, the longest duration in history and the earliest occurrence within the year [1][22][37] - The overall issuance interest rate decreased to 2.40%, down 0.41 percentage points year-on-year. However, the decline in interest rates for lower-rated urban investment bonds was minimal, with AA- rated bonds even experiencing an increase [6][30] - The average maturity of issued bonds extended to 3.89 years, reflecting a trend towards longer-term financing. The broad and narrow definitions of refinancing ratios reached 97.57% and 94.13%, respectively, indicating a high reliance on refinancing [6][35] - Trading volume in the urban investment bond market decreased by nearly 15% year-on-year, with trading spreads compressing compared to the end of 2024 [40] - Both key and non-key regions experienced net outflows, with non-key regions showing a deeper level of outflow. In 13 provinces, the refinancing ratio reached 100%, with 10 of these being key provinces [7][43] - Credit risk in the urban investment sector showed slight improvement, with fewer default events reported. However, the overall credit quality remains a concern, as evidenced by the downgrades in certain provinces [8][11] - For the second half of 2025, the expected issuance scale is projected to be between 2.34 trillion and 2.50 trillion yuan, with a potential for continued negative net financing in certain months. The refinancing ratio is anticipated to remain high, and the hierarchy of financing entities may continue to rise [9][10] - The urban investment sector is facing significant challenges, including high debt pressures and the need for effective policy optimization to support financing cycles and economic development. The ongoing transformation of urban investment entities is critical, with a focus on balancing debt resolution and business expansion [10][11][12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In H1 2025, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds hit a three - year low, with negative net financing for four consecutive months from March to June. The credit risk of urban investment bonds slightly converged, and credit ratings were mainly upgraded. It is expected that the issuance scale from July to December will be about 2.4 trillion yuan, and the net outflow may exceed 100 billion yuan [2][12]. - The current urban investment financing policy is strict, and it is necessary to optimize the policy to support new investment space. Although the "package debt resolution" has achieved results, urban investment enterprises still face heavy debt pressure. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period will bring new opportunities and challenges to the urban investment industry, but enterprises face problems such as weak asset liquidity. The "platform exit" of urban investment may lead to new problems, and it is necessary to guide and regulate the transformation [7][8][9]. - The credit spread of urban investment bonds still has room for compression. It is recommended to allocate high - quality enterprise targets in strong regions and pay attention to new issuers of bonds during the transformation [11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Five Characteristics of the Urban Investment Bond Market Operation in H1 2025 - **Issuance scale at a three - year low, negative net financing at home and abroad**: The issuance scale was 2.77 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.15%. The net financing was - 120.004 billion yuan, with four consecutive months of net outflows from March to June. The overseas issuance scale decreased by 12.29% year - on - year, and the net outflow was 34.484 billion yuan. Only provincial and AAA - rated urban investment entities had positive net financing [2][17][18]. - **Overall decline in issuance interest rates, small decline for weak - quality bonds**: The weighted average issuance interest rate was 2.40%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.41 percentage points. The decline of weak - quality and low - level entities was less than that of stronger ones, and the AA - level entities' interest rates increased [30]. - **Long - term issuance trend, high proportion of debt replacement**: The weighted average term was 3.89 years, a year - on - year increase of 0.24 years. The proportion of private placement bonds rose to the first place. The broad and narrow debt replacement ratios reached 97.57% and 94.13% respectively [37]. - **Decline in trading volume, compression of trading spreads**: The trading volume decreased by 14.86% year - on - year, and the trading spreads compressed compared with the end of 2024 [42]. - **Deeper net outflows in non - key regions**: 13 provinces had a 100% debt replacement ratio, with 10 being key provinces. Jilin and Chongqing issued project - construction urban investment bonds. Key provinces had a total net outflow of 36.308 billion yuan, and non - key provinces had a total net outflow of 83.696 billion yuan [45]. II. Slight Convergence of Urban Investment Credit Risks, Upward - Adjusted Credit Ratings - **Convergence of non - standard default risks, decline in commercial bill overdue times**: There were 3 non - standard default events in H1, all trust product over - dues in Henan, Shandong, and Shaanxi. By May, 52 urban investment enterprises were on the commercial bill overdue list, with 100 times on the list, a year - on - year decrease of 10 enterprises and 17 times [56]. - **Upward - adjusted credit ratings, mainly in Shanghai, Hunan, and Guangdong**: 25 urban investment platforms had 44 rating adjustments. 14 entities had upward - adjusted main body ratings, and 2 had downward - adjusted ones. 27 bond items were upgraded, and 2 were downgraded [58]. - **Significant decline in abnormal trading volume and scale, frequent in Shandong and Guizhou**: 157 urban investment entities had 576 abnormal trades, with a scale of 23.332 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 76.34%. Shandong and Guizhou had relatively large abnormal trading scales [60]. III. High Maturity and Put - Option Pressures, Difficult to Reverse the Net Outflow Trend, Expected Issuance Scale of about 2.4 Trillion from July to December - **Maturity and put - option scale of about 2.58 trillion from July to December**: By the end of June, the maturity scale was about 1.85 trillion yuan, and the put - option scale was 72.7022 billion yuan (assuming a 70% put - option ratio). Heilongjiang, Gansu, and Yunnan had relatively high maturity pressures [64]. - **Slight decline in the proportion of early redemption, more than half of bonds in Liaoning were redeemed early**: In H1, 700 bonds were redeemed early, with a total scale of 126.284 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11%. The proportion of early redemption to the total maturity scale was 4.36%, a slight year - on - year decrease. Liaoning had a high early - redemption proportion of 54.39% [68]. - **Expected issuance scale of about 2.4 trillion from July to December, net outflow may exceed 100 billion**: It is expected that there may still be months with negative net financing from July to December, with a total net outflow of about 100 - 150 billion yuan. The issuance scale is expected to be between 2.34 trillion and 2.50 trillion yuan. The debt replacement ratio will remain high, and the financing entity level may continue to move up [5][70][72]. IV. Follow - up Concerns and Investment Strategies (1) Follow - up Concerns - **Optimize financing policies**: The current policies are too strict. It is necessary to optimize policies from the perspective of ensuring financing cycles and economic development, such as refining "list - based management" and relaxing "government letter" requirements [7]. - **Accelerate debt replacement and relieve pressure**: Although the "package debt resolution" has achieved results, urban investment enterprises still face heavy debt pressure. It is recommended to accelerate debt replacement and include some operating debts and government arrears in the replacement scope [8]. - **Seize development opportunities during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period**: Urban investment enterprises face problems such as weak asset liquidity. They need to seize opportunities during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, integrate resources, and control investment impulses [9]. - **Guide and standardize urban investment transformation**: The "platform exit" of urban investment may lead to new problems. Local governments need to guide the transformation direction and strengthen policy connection [10]. (2) Investment Strategies - The macro - environment is favorable for the bond market. The yield center may decline in H2 2025. The credit spread of urban investment bonds has room for compression. It is recommended to allocate high - quality targets in strong regions and pay attention to new issuers during the transformation [11][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The issuance and net financing of non - financial credit bonds in the first half of 2025 showed a downward trend, with the issuance of urban investment bonds also decreasing, and the net financing gap expanding. The financing cost has been declining. Different regions and cities have significant differences in issuance, net financing, and financing costs. The issuance volume of industrial holding industry decreased in the first half of 2025, ranking second [1][26]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Overall Situation of Non - financial Credit Bonds and Urban Investment Bonds - In the first half of 2025, the issuance of non - financial credit bonds was 6.82 trillion yuan, a year - on - year slight decrease of 1.02%, and the net financing was about 1.01 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.88%. The issuance of urban investment bonds was about 2.615 trillion yuan, accounting for 38.33% of the total non - financial credit bond issuance, with a net financing of - 815.54 million yuan [1]. - Since 2019, the issuance cost of urban investment bonds has been declining. In 2024, the weighted average coupon rate dropped below 3%, and in the first half of 2025, it further dropped below 2.5% (about 2.44%) [1]. - The net financing of urban investment bonds has shown a negative trend since Q4 2023, with fluctuations. In the first half of 2025, the net financing turned negative year - on - year, with a decline of 268% [3]. 3.2 Regional Analysis of Urban Investment Bonds 3.2.1 Provincial - level Analysis - In terms of issuance volume, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang ranked in the top three, but their issuance volumes in Q2 2025 decreased quarter - on - quarter. Hunan and Hubei had significant quarter - on - quarter growth in Q2 2025. Since 2024, Jiangsu has seen the most obvious decline in single - quarter issuance volume [8]. - In terms of net financing, there are significant differences and large changes among provinces. Jiangsu has seen the most obvious reduction in bond volume since the debt resolution. Shandong and Guangdong have shown "reverse expansion". Most provinces' net financing decreased quarter - on - quarter in Q2 2025 [10][12]. - In terms of financing cost, since 2025, it has been in a downward trend. In Q2 2025, only Guizhou, Gansu, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, and Heilongjiang had a weighted average coupon rate above 3%. There were 18 provinces with a yield above 2.5% in Q2 2025, 2 less than in Q1 [12]. 3.2.2 Prefecture - level City Analysis - In Q2 2025, there were 30 cities with an issuance volume of over 10 billion yuan, and Qingdao was the only city with an issuance volume of over 40 billion yuan in Q2 and over 100 billion yuan in the first half of 2025. In the first half of 2025, the issuance volumes of major cities declined significantly. Among the top 20 cities in issuance volume, Xi'an had the most obvious year - on - year increase, while regions with a decline of over 30% included Suzhou, Changzhou, Huzhou, and Xuzhou [15]. - In the first half of 2025, 102 cities achieved positive net financing, 2 more than the previous year. Guangzhou and Qingdao were the only two cities with a net financing scale of over 10 billion yuan. Among other cities with a large net financing scale, Taizhou, Shangrao, Zhengzhou, and Shijiazhuang turned from negative to positive, while Zhuhai, Fuzhou, and Weifang had obvious declines [19]. - Nanjing and Chengdu had a financing gap of over 10 billion yuan, and their year - on - year declines were large. Most cities with large financing gaps saw a significant expansion of the gap, and Xiamen, Quanzhou, and Zhuzhou turned from positive to negative [21]. - In Q2 2025, only Baoshan, Anshun, Laibin, Liaocheng, and Tongren could offer a yield of over 4%. There were 28 cities with a coupon rate of over 3%, 3 less than in Q1. Only Zhangjiakou, Weihai, Guilin, Liuzhou, Xiangtan, Harbin, and Dezhou saw a quarter - on - quarter increase in the weighted coupon rate [23]. 3.3 Industrial Holding Industry - In 2023, the issuance volume of the industrial holding industry exceeded that of the power industry, ranking first. In 2024, it continued to rank first, with the total issuance volume reaching a record high of about 1.28 trillion yuan. In the first half of 2025, it dropped to second place, and the total volume was close to 46% of that in 2024. In terms of net financing, it reached 35.18 billion yuan in 2024, a year - on - year increase of 245%. In the first half of 2025, the net financing was about 17.18 billion yuan, nearly half of that in 2024. The financing cost has also been declining, dropping below 2.2% in the first half of 2025 [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since July, the allocation demand for credit bonds from funds, other product categories, and insurance has increased. Credit spreads have mostly narrowed or remained flat due to strong demand, with 1Y varieties showing strong resistance to decline and lower-rated bonds performing better than higher-rated ones [1][10][11]. - Currently, both credit bond coupons and credit spreads are at low levels, and the market trend is more dependent on institutional allocation demand. It is necessary to closely monitor institutional behavior, buying sentiment, and the potential compression space of credit spreads [1][12]. - Overall, the supply - demand pattern in July is favorable for credit bonds, and there is still a small amount of compression space for credit spreads. Specific strategies include focusing on short - to medium - duration bonds with credit rating sinking, and high - grade 10Y bonds have relatively large potential compression space for credit spreads [3][22]. - In the bank capital bond market, although the spread protection is thin, there is still compression space. Long - duration bonds of large banks and 2 - 3 year bonds of small and medium - sized banks are recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Credit Bond Market Overview - From July 1 - 11, funds' net purchase of credit bonds reached 88.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 39.1 billion yuan. Other product categories and insurance had net purchases of 31.3 billion and 15.2 billion yuan respectively, with year - on - year increases of 7.8 billion and 5 billion yuan [1][11]. - From July 7 - 11, with the convergence of funds and the rotation of negative factors, the bond market fluctuated upwards. Credit bonds, due to strong allocation demand, saw most credit spreads narrow or remain flat [10]. 3.2. Factors Affecting Credit Bond Market 3.2.1. Institutional Behavior - Fund net trading volume of credit bonds is a sensitive indicator related to credit spread trends. Maintaining a daily net purchase of over 500 million yuan helps keep credit spreads low. From July 7 - 10, the rolling 5 - day net purchase was 1 - 1.4 billion yuan, but it dropped to 740 million yuan on the 11th, and was below 500 million yuan on the 10th and 11th [2][12]. 3.2.2. Buying Sentiment - The TKN成交占比 is used to measure buying sentiment. A stable TKN成交占比 above 75% indicates good buying sentiment. From July 7 - 11, as yields rose, the TKN成交占比 declined, with three days below 70%, but the rolling 5 - day average was around 70% [2][16]. 3.2.3. Potential Compression Space of Credit Spreads - By observing the position of credit spreads relative to the mean - 2 times the standard deviation, it is found that currently, each variety still has a small amount of compression space, with 10Y varieties having relatively large potential [3][22]. 3.3. Specific Bond Types Analysis 3.3.1. Urban Investment Bonds - From July 1 - 13, urban investment bonds had a net financing of 28.8 billion yuan. The primary market issuance sentiment was good, with the proportion of full - subscription multiples over 3 times remaining at 61%. The issuance rate of long - term bonds decreased significantly, with the 10 - year average dropping to 2.14% [30][32]. - In the secondary market, short - term bonds were resistant to decline, while the yields of 3 - 10Y bonds increased. The trading activity decreased, and Shenzhen Metro had many high - valuation transactions [35][38]. 3.3.2. Industrial Bonds - From July 1 - 13, industrial bond issuance and net financing increased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment weakened slightly, and the proportion of long - term issuance over 5 years decreased significantly. The buying sentiment in the secondary market weakened, and the trading duration increased [40][42]. 3.3.3. Bank Capital Bonds - From July 7 - 13, several banks issued secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds. In the secondary market, yields generally rose, spreads showed differentiation, and low - grade, short - duration bonds performed better. Currently, credit spreads are at relatively low levels, but there is still compression space [45][46]. 3.3.4. TLAC Bonds - By comparing the yields of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y AAA - secondary capital bonds with TLAC bonds, the spreads are analyzed. As of July 11, 2025, the 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y spreads were 3.1bp, 3.8bp, and 1.4bp respectively, indicating that 10 - year TLAC bonds are more cost - effective [53]. 3.3.5. Commercial Financial Bonds - Since 2021, the valuation of 3Y AAA commercial financial bonds has generally followed the trend of interest - rate bonds, with a stable spread center. As of July 11, the credit spread was 14bp, at a relatively low level [57].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the trend of local state-owned enterprises accelerating the divestiture of technology and industrial assets to enhance focus on core responsibilities and facilitate regional industrial upgrades and high-quality development [1][2][4] - The announcement from Shaoxing Binhai New Area Development Group indicates the transfer of various technology-related assets to Shaoxing Binhai New Area Technology Industry Development Co., which includes stakes in companies involved in new energy technology and talent development [2][5] - The divestiture of assets is seen as a means to improve the management efficiency of state-owned assets and broaden financing channels through new entities capable of issuing technology innovation bonds [2][3] Group 2 - Since May, 25 state-owned enterprises have announced asset transfers, covering multiple provinces, indicating a widespread trend in asset divestiture across the country [4] - Specific examples include the transfer of 100% equity stakes in various subsidiaries by local investment groups, demonstrating a pattern of capital operation among city investment companies [4][5] - The asset transfers often involve a variety of entities, including parent companies, local finance departments, and newly established investment companies, reflecting a diverse approach to asset management [5][6] Group 3 - Industry experts suggest that traditional city investment companies, while historically focused on infrastructure, are now exploring paths for technological innovation and the development of emerging industries [6][7] - The emphasis is on building investment and operational capabilities for technology innovation projects and leveraging state-owned enterprises' financial strength to establish industry investment guiding funds, particularly for technology innovation [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangxi Autonomous Region is mobilizing efforts to support Liuzhou in addressing its severe local debt crisis, which has escalated due to a combination of industrial decline and aggressive urban construction policies [1][14]. Summary by Sections Liuzhou's Debt Situation - Liuzhou's local government debt reached 1,042.7 billion yuan by the end of last year, with 788.4 billion yuan attributed to the municipal level [3]. - The city has a debt ratio of 166.39%, the highest among major cities in Guangxi [2]. - Liuzhou's financing platforms have accumulated significant hidden debts, with a total of 2,159.02 billion yuan in interest-bearing liabilities [3]. Financial Challenges - In 2024, Liuzhou's fiscal revenue is projected to be 149 billion yuan, a 4.8% decrease from 2023, while expenditures are expected to rise by 21.7% to 462 billion yuan [4]. - The city's government fund income is anticipated to drop by 53.6% to 60.66 billion yuan, exacerbating the financial strain [4]. Historical Context of Debt Accumulation - Liuzhou's debt issues stem from a history of structural imbalances, characterized by industrial stagnation and aggressive urban development [5]. - The city was once a major automotive hub, but production has declined significantly since 2017, leading to a drop in industrial output [8]. Political and Economic Implications - The debt crisis is not only a financial issue but also reflects deeper political and governance challenges within Liuzhou [14]. - The Guangxi government has proposed a comprehensive debt resolution plan, emphasizing the need for political support alongside financial measures [14]. Future Prospects and Strategies - The Guangxi government has committed to a three-year plan to help Liuzhou achieve a positive financial cycle, focusing on asset revitalization and risk prevention [14]. - Liuzhou aims to leverage artificial intelligence and manufacturing integration as a key strategy for economic recovery, with a target to exceed 100 billion yuan in AI-related industry output by 2027 [15][16].

Group 1: Report Summary - Investment Rating: Not provided in the report - Core View: In the second half of 2025, credit bond investment should focus on three elements: the trend of funds and interest rates, the supply - demand pattern of credit bonds, and the cost - effectiveness of different varieties. Interest rates may continue to decline in a volatile manner, making the coupon value of credit bonds prominent, but the valuation volatility may increase. The overall supply of credit bonds may be difficult to expand, and the configuration demand may weaken from August to December. Different investment strategies are recommended for different periods and varieties [1][18] Group 2: 1. Steady Coupon as the Foundation, Grasp the Trading Rhythm 1.1. Short - to Medium - Duration Credit Spread Compression for Coupon Income, Seize Phased Opportunities in Long - Duration Bonds - H1 2025 Review: The credit bond market experienced an increase in yields and a widening of credit spreads from January to mid - March, followed by a rotation of the market to medium - to long - duration and then ultra - long - duration bonds from April to June. The main factors in the first quarter were the tight funds and the change in wealth management scale. In mid - to late March, the bond market recovered, driven by supply shrinkage and the cost - effectiveness of varieties. From April to June, the market was affected by interest rate fluctuations and the shift of the funds' central point [12][13] - June 2025 Highlights: The long - duration credit bond market was activated, mainly due to the compression of short - to medium - duration credit spreads to historical lows and the increased demand from funds, insurance, and other products. The scale of credit bond ETFs increased by 7.7 billion yuan in June, which also drove the demand for some long - duration component bonds [14][16] - H2 2025 Outlook: Interest rates may continue to decline in a volatile manner. The supply of credit bonds may be difficult to expand, with the decrease in urban investment bonds offset by the increase in industrial bonds. The wealth management scale usually increases significantly in July but weakens from August to December. The rectification of wealth management's net - value smoothing methods may suppress the demand for ultra - long - duration and low - rated medium - to long - duration bonds. It is recommended to increase positions in July, take profits in August, and reduce credit bond positions from August to December, switching to inter - bank certificates of deposit and interest - rate bonds [18][19][21] - Variety Cost - Effectiveness: The 10Y high - grade credit bonds have relatively large potential for credit spread compression. As of June 30, the credit spreads of 10Y high - grade medium - term notes are still 8 - 11bp higher than the average. Short - to medium - duration credit spread compression may still be the dominant strategy. Bonds with a yield of 2.0% - 2.2% in the 1 - 3 - year AA and AA(2) categories have high allocation value. High - grade 5 - year bonds can be considered when the credit spread adjusts to the mean + 1 standard deviation [22][30][35] 1.2. Grasp the Trading Rhythm of Bank Capital Bonds 1.2.1. Difficult for Bank Capital Bond Supply to Expand in H2 2025 - H1 2025 Review: The supply of bank capital bonds increased slightly. The net financing of secondary capital bonds increased year - on - year, while that of perpetual bonds decreased. The city commercial banks increased their issuance scale, while the supply from rural commercial banks was weak [39] - H2 2025 Outlook: The demand for new capital bonds from the Big Four banks may decrease after the capital injection in June. Although small and medium - sized banks may increase issuance if the cost is low, the overall net supply is difficult to expand [40] 1.2.2. Narrower Bandwidth for Band - Trading in Bank Capital Bonds, Reverse Trading May Yield Higher Win - Rates - H1 2025 Review: The yields of bank capital bonds showed differentiation. The yields of 1 - 5Y large - bank bonds generally increased, while those of 10Y secondary capital bonds and 1 - 4Y small - and medium - bank bonds mostly decreased. The credit spreads of most varieties compressed, with short - duration and low - grade bonds performing better [44] - H2 2025 Outlook: The bank capital bonds still have trading opportunities following interest - rate bonds, but the credit spread compression space is limited. Reverse trading (increasing positions during adjustments) may have a higher win - rate. The 4 - year and 6 - year bonds have higher riding yields and better holding experiences [50][51] Group 3: 2. Urban Investment Bonds: Negative Net Financing in H1, a Historical First - H1 2025 Supply: The supply of urban investment bonds shrank, with negative net financing for the first time in history. From January to June, the issuance was 2.9464 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 382.9 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 71.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 218.5 billion yuan, mainly due to the tightening of bond - issuing policies [55] - Issuance Characteristics: The overall issuance sentiment was good, with a high proportion of over - subscribed issuances. The proportion of 3 - 5 - year issuances increased, while that of within - 1 - year issuances decreased. The issuance interest rates decreased overall, with greater declines in short - to medium - term bonds [55][56] - Regional Differences: The net financing performance of urban investment bonds varied by region. Most regions had negative net financing, mainly affected by district - level and park - level platforms. Guangdong and Shandong had relatively high positive net financing, while Jiangsu, Hunan, and Chongqing had large negative net financing [58] - Yield and Credit Spread: The yields of urban investment bonds generally decreased in H1, with high - grade long - duration and AA - low - grade bonds performing better. The credit spreads of all maturities and grades narrowed, with low - grade bonds performing more strongly [62][63] - Secondary Market: Since mid - March, the buying interest in the secondary market has been high, with a high proportion of TKN transactions and low - valuation transactions. There was a trend of increasing duration in transactions, and the proportion of AA(2) low - grade transactions remained high [66] Group 4: 3. Industrial Bonds: Supply Increase, Longer Durations in Both Primary and Secondary Markets - H1 2025 Supply: The issuance and net financing of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. From January to June, the issuance was 3.8718 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 309.2 billion yuan, and the net financing was 1.0788 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 40 billion yuan. The new regulations on science and technology innovation bonds contributed to the increase in issuance [18] Group 5: 4. Bank Capital Bonds: Low - Rated Bonds Perform Better, Weak Trading Sentiment - H1 2025 Performance: The yields of bank capital bonds showed differentiation, with short - duration and low - rated bonds performing better. The credit spreads of most varieties compressed, with 1 - 4Y small - and medium - bank capital bonds and 1 - 3Y AA - perpetual bonds having significant spread compression [44] - Trading Rhythm: The trading bandwidth of large - bank long - duration capital bonds has been narrowing, making band - trading more difficult. Reverse trading may be a better strategy. The 4 - year and 6 - year bonds have higher riding yields [48][51]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance reported a reduction of over 7,000 financing platforms since the beginning of 2024, as part of efforts to optimize local government debt management and reform financing platforms [1] - The report includes measures such as implementing a "negative list" management for bond issuance, exploring a debt repayment reserve fund system, and enhancing the lifecycle management of borrowing and repayment [1] - The government has taken strict actions against the addition of hidden debts and false debt replacement issues, publicly exposing eight typical cases of accountability [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued written warnings to three city investment companies for violations related to financial report data and fundraising purposes [3] - The companies involved include Taizhou Urban Construction Investment Group, Suzhou Science and Technology City Development Group, and Chongqing Mairui Urban Construction Investment Co., which made corrections to their financial statements due to accounting errors and improper use of raised funds [3] Group 3 - The first consumer infrastructure REIT, CICC China Green Development Commercial REIT, was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange with an initial price of 3.16 yuan per share, opening at 4.108 yuan, marking a 30% increase on its first day [4][5] - The underlying asset of this REIT is the Jinan Lingxiu City Guihe Shopping Center, a multifunctional lifestyle plaza located in the core area of Jinan, Shandong Province [4] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for an appropriately loose monetary policy and to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, suggesting an increase in the intensity of monetary policy regulation [7] - The central bank aims to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply, aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [7] Group 5 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will officially launch the non-directional expansion business function for REITs on June 30, allowing fund managers to handle various expansion-related tasks [8] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange clarified three methods for REITs expansion, including sales to specific objects, allocation to existing REIT holders, and fundraising from unspecified objects [9] Group 6 - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association revised the guidelines for credit risk mitigation certificates, simplifying the registration process and optimizing the creation process [11] - The revisions aim to enhance the participation of more financial institutions and credit enhancement agencies in the creation of these certificates [11] Group 7 - The MOX Macau Stock Exchange is exploring the launch of a "Science and Technology Innovation Board" for Macau bonds and has established the Macau Science and Technology Innovation Bond Certification Committee [12] Group 8 - Xinyang Huaxin Investment Group announced a reduction in the coupon rate of its bond from 3.87% to 1%, with a total issuance of 500 million yuan [13] - Xuchang City Investment Development Group completed the issuance of 300 million yuan in corporate bonds with a coupon rate of 2.75% [14] - Nanyang Industrial Investment Group's plan to issue 2.2 billion yuan in corporate bonds has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [14] Group 9 - Huatai Haitong Securities plans to issue 30 billion yuan in subordinated bonds, with the issuance amount being accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [15] - In May, local government bond issuance reached 779.5 billion yuan, with an average interest rate of 1.87% [16]

Group 1 - The company is facing significant challenges in securing financing, as financial institutions have become increasingly reluctant to provide funds, contrasting with previous times when funding was readily available [4][6] - There is a push for the company to transition towards industrialization and reduce reliance on government support, but the leadership lacks a clear understanding of how to implement this transition effectively [6][10] - The financing department is under immense pressure, often being blamed for unmet financing targets and debt risk management failures, leading to a sense of frustration and confusion among employees [8][10] Group 2 - The current leadership is hesitant to engage in the necessary efforts for industrial transformation, preferring to delay action, which could jeopardize future success [6][10] - Despite the difficulties, there remains a glimmer of hope that successful transformation could elevate the company's status and reputation within the community [10][12] - The company culture reflects a stark contrast between the financing department's struggles and the perceived success of other companies, leading to a feeling of being scapegoated for broader organizational issues [8][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two weeks, interest - rate bonds fluctuated downward. Institutions continued to explore credit - bond spreads, with long - duration bonds becoming the focus. The 10 - year credit spread has significantly compressed. The trading sentiment of credit bonds is quite extreme. Considering the usual significant decline in wealth - management scale in the last week of June, credit bonds may experience short - term fluctuations. Accounts with unstable liability ends are not advised to chase the rising market but can make arrangements during adjustments. Accounts that have already invested in long - duration credit bonds earlier do not need to rush to take profits as there is still some allocation demand in July. Additionally, there is still room for the spread of long - duration credit bonds to compress [1][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 City Investment Bonds - Net financing remains weak. From June 1 - 22, 2025, city investment bonds issued 3781 billion yuan, matured 3767 billion yuan, and only achieved a net financing of 14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 791 billion yuan. The primary issuance sentiment declined, with the proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times dropping by 14 percentage points to 62%. The proportion of issuances with a term of over 3 years further increased to 45% [31] - Short - end issuance rates continued to reach new lows. In June, the issuance rates of city investment bonds continued to decline. The rates for bonds with a term of less than 1 year, 1 - 3 years, and 3 - 5 years decreased by 10bp, 7bp, and 15bp respectively compared to May, reaching 1.76%, 2.19%, and 2.51% [33] - In the secondary market, long - end bonds performed strongly, with yields of many terms reaching new lows. From June 16 - 20, yields of city investment bonds across all terms declined. The decline in medium - and short - end yields was limited, mostly within 3bp, while most long - end bonds with a term of over 5 years declined by more than 5bp, and credit spreads also compressed [36] - From the broker transaction data, bonds of all terms were traded at a discount to valuation, with long - term bonds over 5 years performing the best. The daily transactions of city investment bonds were still active, with daily transactions often exceeding 800, and the average discount to valuation per trading day was around 2bp. The average discount to valuation of long - term bonds over 5 years was 2.8bp [41] 3.2 Industrial Bonds - In June, the issuance and net - financing scale of industrial bonds increased significantly year - on - year. From June 1 - 22, industrial bonds issued 6187 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1345 billion yuan, and achieved a net financing of 3050 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1425 billion yuan. The comprehensive, public - utility, and non - bank financial industries had relatively large net - financing scales [43] - The issuance sentiment weakened. The proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times decreased from 38% to 30%, while the proportion of 2 - 3 times increased from 24% to 30% [43] - The proportion of medium - and long - term issuances increased. Since June, the proportion of industrial bonds with a term of less than 1 year decreased from 40% in May to 31%, while the proportions of 1 - 3 years, 3 - 5 years (including 5 years but excluding 3 years), and over 5 years increased to 40%, 18%, and 12% respectively [43] - From the broker transactions, the buying sentiment of industrial bonds was high. The TKN proportion remained at 79%, and the proportion of discount - to - valuation transactions increased from 65% to 66%. The transaction duration lengthened, with the proportion of transactions over 5 years increasing by 5 percentage points to 19% [45] 3.3 Bank Capital Bonds - In the primary market, from June 16 - 22, 2025, Xi'an Bank and Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank each issued a 20 - billion - yuan 5 + 5 - year secondary capital bond. The issuance rate of Xi'an Bank was 2.30%. Minsheng Bank issued a 300 - billion - yuan 5 + N - year perpetual bond with an issuance rate of 2.30% [48] - In the secondary market, yields of bank capital bonds declined across the board, and spreads showed differentiation. 10 - year secondary capital bonds and medium - and long - term perpetual bonds performed better. Specifically, yields of 1 - 5 - year secondary capital bonds generally declined by 2 - 4bp, with credit spreads fluctuating narrowly. The 10 - year secondary capital bond yield declined by 5bp, and the spread narrowed by 2bp. Bank perpetual bonds outperformed secondary capital bonds, with most credit spreads narrowing by 0 - 4bp [48] - From the broker transactions, from June 16 - 20, the number of bank capital bond transactions increased significantly month - on - month, and the trading sentiment was good. The TKN proportion was above 68%. The proportions of discount - to - valuation transactions of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds increased by 2 and 1 percentage points respectively to 70% and 77%. In terms of the term structure, state - owned bank transactions were still concentrated in long - duration bonds with good liquidity. The proportion of 4 - 5 - year secondary capital bond transactions of state - owned banks increased by 3 percentage points to 54%, while that of perpetual bonds decreased by 4 percentage points to 60%. Joint - stock bank transactions reduced the duration [51] - Regarding TLAC bonds, by subtracting the average yields of 3 + 1, 5 + 1, and 10 + 1 TLAC bonds from the yields to maturity of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y AAA - secondary capital bonds, the spreads of secondary capital bonds over TLAC bonds were obtained. As of June 20, 2025, the spreads of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y secondary capital bonds over TLAC bonds were 3.5bp, 7.5bp, and 4.8bp respectively, indicating that the 10 - year TLAC bond was more cost - effective at present [54] - For commercial financial bonds, taking the 3Y AAA commercial financial bond as an example, since 2021, its spread has mostly fluctuated between 10 - 30bp, with a stable spread center at 20bp. As of June 20, the credit spread of the 3Y AAA commercial financial bond was 14bp, at a relatively low level compared to the spread center [58]