Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock market's strength has led to short-term adjustment pressure on the bond market, resulting in a passive narrowing of credit spreads, particularly in short-duration bonds, with 1-year credit spreads across various ratings narrowing by 5-7 basis points [1][4] - The report highlights that the overall turnover rate of credit bonds has decreased from 2.36% to 2.21%, reflecting a reduction in market trading activity, with the weighted average transaction duration slightly increasing from 2.8 years to 2.9 years [2] - Fund managers are maintaining an allocation to credit bonds, although the intensity has weakened, with a shift towards shorter-duration bonds, while insurance companies have increased their net purchases of long-duration credit bonds [3] Group 2 - The report suggests that despite the stock market's upward pressure on the bond market, there remains a potential for short-term volatility, and it recommends a strategy of selectively increasing positions during adjustments rather than aggressively chasing gains [4] - The report notes that the average yield of credit bonds has generally increased, with the 3-year and 5-year credit bonds showing significant upward movement, particularly in lower-rated municipal bonds [10][17] - The report identifies specific sectors such as steel and coal that may benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, indicating potential opportunities in industry bonds [4]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 逢高配置高票息——信用周报 20250712 信用策略：继续挖掘利差，长端品种等待右侧机会 1、对于负债端稳定性偏弱机构，继续关注 2-3y 中低等级品种，同时重点配置 部分 4-5y 高票息、中等资质个券。对于长久期信用债，配置盘仍可从票息角 度出发积极配置，交易盘参与博弈需等待时机，观察股债翘板扰动过后的机构 配置力量变化，若配置力量有所恢复，可参与右侧机会。 2、对于负债端稳定性较强机构，可发挥负债稳定优势拉久期，积极配置长久 期品种，票息策略优先。当前 7y 隐含评级 AA+品种、10-15y 隐含评级 AA+及 以上品种收益率处于 2.04-2.39%区间内，有票息挖掘空间，可重点关注。 重点政策及热点事件： 1、深圳市龙光控股有限公司公告将对 21 笔债券的本息偿付安排进行调整， 并提供包括全额转换特定资产、资产抵债、现金回购、股票等重组方案选项。 今年以来房企债务重组持续释放积极信号，多家房企债务重组节奏明显加快， 风险出清提速。 2、中国财经报发表文章提及甘肃全力以赴"防爆雷"，设立规模 100 亿元的省 级应急周转资金池，省级财政筹措资金 20 亿元，按 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 票息为盾，提前"卡位"利差压缩行情 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当前债市震荡环境下应优先布局高票息资产获取确定性收益，同时为 7 月理财季节性进场驱动 的利差压缩行情提前蓄力。多空因素交织导致信用利差被动走阔，投资者需在票息保护下把握 定价偏差机会：短期聚焦城投、央国企地产等高票息品种，负债稳定型资金可拉长久期；7 月 理财进场窗口需重点关注中西部城投、央国企地产债及银行二级资本债等结构性机会，利用当 前市场分歧布局超调品种。央行流动性呵护与季节性资金缺口等因素共同作用下，利率波动或 持续，票息策略成为震荡市最优解。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 票息为盾，提前"卡位"利差压缩行情 [Table_Summa] 在债市震荡、信用利差被动走阔的背景下，当前应优先 ...

Group 1: Impact of Deposit Rate Cuts on Credit Bonds - The impact of deposit rate cuts on credit bond performance varies; if the cuts lead to a decline in policy rates, credit spreads typically widen, while if they precede rate cuts, spreads may narrow [1][9][10] - Historical analysis shows that after deposit rate cuts, the net buying power for credit bonds from funds and insurance is usually limited, indicating a weak immediate impact [1][15][9] - The short-term influence of deposit rate cuts on credit spreads is primarily driven by market sentiment and conditions rather than direct attribution to the event [1][15][9] Group 2: June Credit Bond Strategy - In June, the demand for credit bonds may weaken marginally, and the momentum for spread narrowing is expected to slow down due to seasonal trends [1][25][28] - The market is anticipated to remain volatile, with institutions focusing on high-yield bonds to potentially drive structural narrowing in credit spreads, although a trend compression is unlikely [1][25][28] - The liquidity environment is expected to be stable, with the central bank showing a strong willingness to support liquidity, which may help mitigate risks of significant capital outflows [1][28][26] Group 3: Sector-Specific Strategies - For urban investment bonds, focus on low-grade bonds within 3 years and medium to high-grade bonds in the 4-5 year range, particularly in regions with strong financial capabilities [2][3] - In the real estate sector, attention should be on AA-rated bonds from central and state-owned enterprises with maturities of 1-2 years, as lower-grade real estate bonds have shown significant spread compression [2][3] - For cyclical bonds, particularly coal and steel, a cautious approach is recommended, with a focus on high-grade issuers to avoid tail risks associated with declining market conditions [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond market has shown overall positive performance this year, with yields experiencing a downward trend, but the space for further decline in short-term credit bond yields and narrowing spreads is limited [1][2]. Credit Bond Market Analysis - As of May 21, the interbank credit bond market continues to show a downward trend in yields, with the AAA-rated 3-month yield slightly increasing by 1 basis point to 1.65%, while the 3-year yield remains stable around 1.83%, and the 5-year yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.96% [2]. - The compression of credit spreads for 1-2 year credit varieties is nearing its limit, with 2-year credit spreads being less than 10 basis points above last year's lows, and 3-year varieties showing a distance of 10-20 basis points from last year's lows [3]. Investment Recommendations - Institutions are advised to focus on certain ticket opportunities with guaranteed yields, considering absolute yield perspectives for allocation [3]. - For institutions with weaker liability stability, it is recommended to focus on 2-3 year mid-low grade varieties, such as broker subordinated bonds, while also considering high-yield, medium-quality bonds in the 4-5 year range [3]. - For institutions with stronger liability stability, extending duration with a focus on 4-5 year varieties is suggested [3]. City Investment Bonds - City investment products remain a preferred choice among institutions, with a 20.7% quarter-on-quarter increase in cash for city investment bond issuers in Q1 2025, indicating improved liquidity due to debt relief funds [4]. - The overall supply of city investment bonds is slowing while demand continues to rise, benefiting credit spreads [4]. - Recommendations include focusing on low-grade bonds within 3 years and medium-high grade bonds in the 4-5 year range [4]. Industry Debt Performance - The overall performance of industry debt issuers has shown four main characteristics: continued decline in profitability, weak cash flow, reliance on inventory compression for cash flow, and weakened liquidity indicators [6]. - Approximately two-thirds of issuers show weakened performance, particularly in sectors like media, steel, trade, real estate, and construction [6]. - Industries performing relatively well include agriculture, logistics, non-ferrous metals, and electricity, while sectors like airports and public transport remain in loss but maintain good cash flow due to strong external financing capabilities [6]. Conclusion on Industry Debt Investment - Caution is advised for industry debt investments, with a focus on meticulous selection of bonds being crucial for future opportunities [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current bond market, short - term credit bond yield decline and spread narrowing space are limited. Traders can wait for a better position after market adjustment to participate in the game, and currently focus on certain coupon opportunities and consider allocation from the perspective of absolute yield [3][27] - Different investment strategies should be adopted according to the stability of the liability side. For those with weak liability - side stability, focus on 2 - 3y medium - and low - grade varieties and some 4 - 5y high - coupon, medium - quality individual bonds; for those with strong liability - side stability, allocate 4 - 5y varieties [3][4][27] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. How to Allocate Credit Bonds after a Significant Narrowing of Spreads (1) Credit Bond Market Review - This week, the capital price was low at first and then high. The Sino - US economic and trade joint statement significantly reduced bilateral tax rates, boosting risk appetite. Under the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market was under pressure. Interest - rate bond yields rose across the board, while credit bond yields showed a differentiated trend and performed better than interest - rate bonds. Bank secondary and perpetual bonds with significantly narrowed spreads performed weakly, with yields rising slightly and spreads narrowing passively. The yields of other credit varieties generally declined for 1 - 4y and rose for 5 - 15y, with spreads narrowing significantly for 1 - 4y and passively narrowing for 5 - 15y, with a smaller narrowing amplitude at the long end [1][11] (2) Credit Strategy: Focus on Certain Coupon Opportunities - **Current Credit Spread Level**: 1 - 2y variety spreads have been compressed to an extreme level, while the medium - and long - term spreads still have some room compared to last year's lowest point. In a volatile bond market environment, the further compression space of credit spreads may be relatively limited [14][24] - **Current Credit Bond Yield Level**: Currently, the yields of various credit varieties can generally achieve positive carry. Different varieties have different yield levels compared to R007 [25] II. Key Policies and Hot Events - On May 15th, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee issued the "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions", which mentioned improving diversified investment and financing methods and encouraging financial institutions to participate in urban renewal [33] - On May 15th, Vanke announced that its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, would provide a loan of up to 1.552 billion yuan to the company to repay the principal and interest of bonds issued in the public market [33] - On May 13th, seven departments jointly issued policies to include high - quality enterprise science and technology innovation bonds in the benchmark market - making varieties to improve their liquidity [34] III. Secondary Market - This week, credit bond yields showed a differentiated trend, and credit spreads generally narrowed. Different types of bonds, such as urban investment bonds, real - estate bonds, cyclical bonds, and financial bonds, had different yield and spread changes [36][37] IV. Primary Market - This week, the issuance scale of credit bonds was 122.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.5 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 15.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.7 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The issuance scale of urban investment bonds was 30.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 24.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] V. Trading Liquidity - This week, the trading activity in the inter - bank market and the exchange market of credit bonds increased. The trading volume in the inter - bank market increased from 432 billion yuan last week to 550.1 billion yuan, and the trading volume in the exchange market increased from 234.1 billion yuan last week to 336.2 billion yuan [6] VI. Rating Adjustment - This week, there were 2 entities with downgraded ratings and 3 entities with upgraded ratings [6]

信用策略系列 2.2%以上信用债全景 2025 年 05 月 14 日 ➢ 2.2%以上，城投债有哪些？ 截至 2025 年 5 月 12 日，全国存量城投债规模为 186206 亿元，估值在 2.2%以上存量债有 63480 亿元，占比 34.1%；估值在 2.2%以上的公募非永续 城投债有 24115 亿元，占整体存量债比重 13.0%；分省来看： ➢ 2.2%以上，产业债有哪些？ 截至 2025 年 5 月 12 日，存量产业债规模为 103498 亿元，2.2%以上的存 量债规模为 21368 亿元，占全部存量债的 20.6%；估值在 2.2%以上的公募非 永续城投债有 14864 亿元，占整体存量债比重 14.4%。 分行业观察，估值 2.2%以上占比较高且存量较多的行业有房地产（存量超 5300 亿元），综合、建筑装饰、非银金融（存量均超 2000 亿元），以及煤炭、 钢铁、商贸零售（存量均超 1000 亿元）。 ➢ 2.2%以上，金融债有哪些？ 截至 2025 年 5 月 12 日，存量金融债规模为 141692 亿元，2.2%以上的存 量债规模为 9093 亿元，占全部存量债的 6.4%。 （ ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券月报】 回归基本面，信用债如何配置？ ——5 月信用债策略月报 1、城投债方面，关注 3y 以内低等级与 4-5y 中高等级投资机会。对江苏、浙 江等区域，综合实力较强、存量债券余额较多，叠加化债利好保护，可在 3y 以内下沉至 AA-品种；四川、山东、河南、湖南、湖北等地可在 2y 以内下沉 至 AA-品种，天津、重庆等区域可在 2y 以内下沉至 AA(2)品种。 2、地产债方面，关注 1-2y 央国企地产 AA 及以上品种。从板块比价来看，当 前地产债收益率具有一定吸引力，1-2yAA 品种利差在 88-98BP。4 月国务院常 务会议指出要持续稳定股市，政治局会议指出持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势， 后续仍可关注 1-2y 央国企地产 AA 及以上品种机会。但行业信用风险尚未出 清，景气度预计仍偏低，低等级主体谨慎下沉。 3、周期债方面，煤炭债短端下沉、中高等级拉久期至 3y，钢铁债规避尾部风 险。对短期风险可控的隐含评级 AA 煤企 1-2y 品种适当下沉，中高等级可拉 长久期至 3y。今年以来动力煤供需两弱，煤炭价格持续下跌，关注煤价止跌 回稳情况，若景气度持续下 ...