固定收益月报 超长债博弈空间有限，关注二永债相对价值 3 月信用月报 核心结论 年初以来，长端及超长端信用债整体表现较优。除年初配置盘进场、摊余债基 集中开放带来的信用债配置需求以外，交易盘的参与亦是推动信用利差快速收 窄的关键因素。据机构净买入数据，年初至今，其他资管机构为 7-10Y 信用债 最大买入机构，其次为保险（92.8 亿元）和基金（20.6 亿元）。 （1）今年保险机构对 7-10 年期信用债的净买入力度显著强于去年同期，除了 该品种配置价值显现之外（年初信用利差、期限利差处于近年高位），还与分红 险领跑保险"开门红"有关。 （2）基金于 2 月对 7-10Y 信用债转为净买入，或主要由于 1 月信用利差快速压 缩背景下，5Y 及以内利差进一步向下压缩的空间不足，而超长信用债性价比性 价比高，叠加节前最后一周信用债配置情绪较好，基金入场博弈超长端信用债的 交易性机会。 （3）此外，年初以来公募基金对 5Y 以内信用债的买入力量较强，远超季节性。 分期限来看，3-5Y 信用债为基金配置主力，净买入规模超 2000 亿元。摊余定 开债基集中开放为信用债带来增量配置需求，成为支撑本轮信用利差快速压缩的 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Credit bond yields generally declined this week, with credit spreads widening passively[1] - The overall equity market was weak, while the central bank supported the liquidity ahead of the Spring Festival, leading to a stronger bond market[1] - The 5-year credit spreads for Puxin bonds widened significantly after a previous compression, while 1-2 year AA real estate bonds performed well with a substantial narrowing of spreads[1] Group 2: Divergence in Bond Performance - The overall demand structure for bank perpetual bonds may be weaker compared to Puxin bonds due to regulatory impacts and changing investment preferences[2] - After a compression of excess spreads, the coupon value of perpetual bonds has decreased, influenced by weak market trading sentiment[2] - Concerns over redemption pressures in secondary bond funds have increased due to volatility in the equity market, leading to heightened selling pressure on perpetual bonds[2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Current market conditions lack a clear trading theme, with short-term pricing factors expected to be neutral[3] - Focus on high convexity products is recommended, particularly in the 3-year and under category, where fund and wealth management demand is high[3] - For 4-5 year products, Puxin bonds near 4 years are highlighted for their high convexity, with yields around 2.5%[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the bond market may continue to fluctuate, and the coupon strategy may remain a relatively prudent choice. With low credit spreads and the need to control duration risk, investment strategies can focus on the refined exploration of variety spreads, increasing the allocation of low - credit - risk and high - absolute - return varieties [1][2] - Secondary perpetual bonds still have investment value, but their volatility may increase. It is recommended that trading desks control their positions according to their liability - side conditions and try reverse operations [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Credit Bonds: Explore Variety Spreads, Pay Attention to Volatility Risks of Secondary Perpetual Bonds 3.1.1 Low Credit Spreads, Focus on Variety Spread Exploration - In January, the long - end interest rate showed a trend of "rapid rise → rapid fall → slow fall", credit bond yields declined, and credit spreads narrowed across the board. Medium - and low - rated bonds outperformed high - rated ones, and medium - and long - term varieties performed better [10][11] - In February, the bond market may continue to fluctuate. For accounts with unstable liability sides, it is not recommended to chase long - term credit. Focusing on medium - and short - term varieties may be relatively advantageous. After the spread compression in January, credit spreads are generally at a low level [14][15] - Investment strategies can focus on three aspects: exploring the spreads of perpetual varieties, seizing the allocation opportunities of brokerage bonds and brokerage sub - bonds, and grasping the "oversold" repair opportunities of science and technology innovation bond component bonds [18] 3.1.2 Secondary Perpetual Bonds Still Have Allocation Value, but Volatility May Increase - In January 2026, bank secondary perpetual bonds had a catch - up rally, with yields declining across the board and credit spreads narrowing, generally outperforming ordinary credit bonds. This rally was mainly driven by funds, while insurance's net buying volume gradually decreased [32][33] - 3 - 5 - year large - bank secondary perpetual bonds still have certain allocation value for accounts with stable liability sides. However, with the rapid entry of trading - desk funds such as funds and the reduction of insurance's buying volume, the volatility of secondary perpetual bonds may increase [39] 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds: Net Financing Increased Year - on - Year, Medium - and Long - Term Transaction Activity Rose - In January, the net financing of urban investment bonds was positive and increased year - on - year. The issuance proportion of medium - and long - term urban investment bonds increased, and the weighted average issuance interest rate decreased across the board [42] - The yields of urban investment bonds declined across the board in January, with medium - and long - term and low - grade varieties performing better. The trading sentiment of urban investment bonds improved, and the medium - and long - term transaction activity increased [48][54] 3.3 Industrial Bonds: Short - End Issuance Proportion Increased, Medium - and Long - Term Secondary Performance was Superior - In January, the issuance and net financing scale of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. The short - term issuance proportion of industrial bonds continued to rise, and the issuance interest rate generally declined [57] - The yields of industrial bonds declined across the board in January, with medium - and long - term varieties showing obvious repair. Most industries' public offering bond yields declined, and medium - and long - term varieties performed better [59][62] 3.4 Bank Secondary Perpetual Bonds: Transaction Sentiment Warmed Up, Medium - and Long - Term Varieties Significantly Repaired - In January 2026, there were no new bank secondary perpetual bond issuances, and the net financing was - 415 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 36.1 billion yuan [65] - The yields of bank secondary perpetual bonds declined across the board in January, with medium - and long - term varieties significantly repaired. The trading sentiment of bank secondary perpetual bonds warmed up, and the transaction of city commercial bank secondary perpetual bonds spread to medium - and low - grade bonds [71][74]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent opening of amortized cost bond funds has led to a significant increase in credit bond allocations, with a total opening scale reaching 33 billion yuan, including 8.1 billion yuan for 2-year and 24.9 billion yuan for 5-year funds [1][9] - In the past two weeks, funds have significantly increased their allocation to credit bonds, with net purchases of 62.2 billion yuan from January 12 to January 16 and 105.9 billion yuan from January 19 to January 23, indicating a strong demand for 3-5 year credit bonds [1][9] - The report notes that the 3-5 year short-term bonds have shown outstanding performance, with yields declining by 3-7 basis points and spreads narrowing by 1-6 basis points, particularly highlighting the 4-year AA+ rated bonds which saw a yield drop of 7 basis points [2][10] Group 2 - The report anticipates continued demand for 3-5 year credit bonds in the upcoming weeks, with expected opening scales of 20.7 billion yuan and 22.8 billion yuan, although it cautions that the current spreads are at relatively low levels, limiting further compression [2][10] - The credit strategy suggests that the 4-year bonds have high convexity and should be closely monitored for their allocation value, especially as the amortized cost bond funds enter a concentrated opening period [3][36] - The report emphasizes that the overall sentiment in the bond market is improving, with credit bond yields generally declining and a notable performance in the 3-4 year segment, indicating a potential recovery in market conditions [17][32]

Group 1: Credit Strategy - The report emphasizes a focus on high convexity coupon products across different maturities, suggesting a strategic allocation from short to long durations [11][19] - The credit bond market has seen a general decline in yields, with a divergence in credit spreads, indicating a mixed performance among different bond types [11][6] - The current market conditions present an important window for coupon allocation, particularly in the 3.5-4y, 5.5-6y, and 7.5-8y segments [19][32] Group 2: Market Overview - The yield for 1-year short-term bonds is currently in the range of 1.70%-1.80%, which is approximately 7-9 basis points higher than similar maturity certificates of deposit, indicating a favorable comparison [25][30] - For 2-3 year bonds, the yields are between 1.80%-2.15%, with spreads expected to remain low, making them attractive for investment [26][30] - The 4-5 year bonds show high convexity, with a focus on the value of public bonds, as their spreads have widened slightly, improving their relative value [29][32] Group 3: Policy and Events - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines for government investment funds, marking a systematic approach to fund allocation and investment focus [4] - Regulatory bodies are facilitating loan extensions for real estate companies, which is expected to improve their cash flow and market expectations [4] - Vanke has proposed multiple debt restructuring plans, indicating proactive measures to reach consensus with creditors [4]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market - The issuance of perpetual bonds (二永债) increased in November, with a total of 268.3 billion yuan issued, marking a month-on-month increase of 212.3 billion yuan and a year-on-year increase of 103.7 billion yuan [7][8] - Net financing for banks' perpetual bonds in the first eleven months of 2025 was primarily from state-owned banks, totaling 275 billion yuan, which is historically low due to high redemption levels [8][9] - The secondary market for perpetual bonds showed a downward trend in yields and credit spreads, with opportunities identified in AA+ rated bonds and above, particularly focusing on 5Y AAA-rated perpetual bonds [11][12] Group 2: Environmental Industry - The municipal environmental sector is expected to benefit from the expansion of insurance capital, with a focus on cash flow and dividend yield as key selection criteria for investment [13][14] - The growth of biofuels is anticipated due to intensified carbon reduction policies starting in 2025, with SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) and UCO (Used Cooking Oil) prices expected to rise [15][16] - Recommendations include focusing on companies with positive cash flow and increasing dividend expectations, such as 兴蓉环境 and 光大环境 [14][15] Group 3: Real Estate Market - The real estate sector saw a 1.9% increase in the index, with new home sales in 42 key cities rising by 9.9% week-on-week, totaling 2.61 million square meters [19][20] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development outlined key tasks for 2026, including stabilizing the real estate market and promoting urban renewal [20][22] - Policy adjustments in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai aim to support housing demand, particularly for families with multiple children, and to enhance the overall housing supply [20][22] Group 4: Company Analysis - 桂冠电力 - 桂冠电力 plans to acquire 大唐西藏公司 and 大唐 ZDN公司 for 2.025 billion yuan, which includes clean energy assets in Tibet [24][25] - The acquisition is expected to solidify 桂冠电力's position in the hydropower sector and enhance its development rights in the Nu River basin [25][26] - The projected net profit for 桂冠电力 from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 2.8 billion, 3 billion, and 3.2 billion yuan, with a maintained "buy" rating due to long-term investment value in the hydropower sector [25][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The allocation value of 3 - 10Y secondary and perpetual bonds (Two - Yong Bonds) of banks is prominent. It is recommended to focus on AA+ and above - rated 3 - 10Y bonds with high interest - rate differentials, especially the 5Y AAA - perpetual bonds. For insurance and securities firm subordinated bonds, 3 - 10Y bonds of each rating are at a relatively high historical percentile and can be allocated opportunistically [2][3] - In November, the supply of Two - Yong Bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The net financing scale also increased. In the secondary market, the yields and credit spreads of secondary capital bonds generally fluctuated downward (except for AA+ varieties), the yields of perpetual bonds declined but spreads rose, and medium - and long - term bonds performed well [2][27] - In November, the net financing scale of insurance subordinated bonds increased year - on - year, while that of securities firm subordinated bonds decreased year - on - year. In the secondary market, except for 10 - year bonds, the yields and credit spreads of other remaining - term securities firm subordinated bonds and insurance capital - supplementary bonds generally declined [2][62] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bank Two - Yong Bonds 3.1.1 Primary Market and Approval Quota Usage - **Issuance Scale**: In November, the supply of Two - Yong Bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, with a total issuance scale of 268.3 billion yuan, including 143.7 billion yuan of secondary capital bonds and 124.6 billion yuan of perpetual bonds. The total issuance in the first 11 months was about 1.58 trillion yuan, with secondary capital bonds at 781.06 billion yuan and perpetual bonds at 800 billion yuan [5] - **Total Repayment Amount**: In November, the total repayment amount of Two - Yong Bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, amounting to about 174.7 billion yuan. The total repayment in the first 11 months was about 1.16 trillion yuan, reaching a year - on - year high since 2022 [13] - **Net Financing**: The net financing scale of bank Two - Yong Bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year in November, reaching 93.6 billion yuan. The net financing in the first 11 months was 422.96 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease mainly due to a slightly smaller issuance scale than in 2024 and a year - on - year increase in total repayment. The net financing in the first 11 months mainly came from state - owned large - scale banks [14][17] - **Approval Quota and Usage**: As of November 30, the remaining quota of bank Two - Yong Bonds to be issued was 1.44 trillion yuan. State - owned large - scale banks had the fastest issuance progress, while joint - stock banks and rural commercial banks had relatively slow progress [25] 3.1.2 Secondary Market - **Interest Rate Differential and Yield**: The yields and credit spreads of secondary capital bonds generally fluctuated downward (except for AA+ varieties), the yields of perpetual bonds declined but spreads rose, and medium - and long - term bonds performed well. The spreads of 5 - 10Y bonds (except AA -) were relatively large, and the 5Y perpetual bonds, especially the AAA - variety, might have high cost - effectiveness [27][30] - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: In November, the trading volume of Two - Yong Bonds increased month - on - month, with state - owned large - scale banks having the largest month - on - month increase in both secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds. The turnover rates of joint - stock banks increased significantly, ranking first among various types of banks [48][52] 3.2 Securities Firm and Insurance Subordinated Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - **Issuance Scale**: In November, the issuance scale of securities firm subordinated bonds increased slightly, with 19 bonds issued totaling 28.75 billion yuan. The issuance of insurance company bonds remained stable, with 5 capital - supplementary bonds and 1 perpetual bond issued, totaling 15.57 billion yuan [54] - **Net Financing**: The net financing scale of insurance subordinated bonds increased year - on - year in November, while that of securities firm subordinated bonds decreased year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the net financing scale of insurance subordinated bonds decreased year - on - year, while that of securities firm subordinated bonds increased year - on - year [62] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - **Interest Rate Differential and Yield**: Except for 10 - year bonds, the yields and credit spreads of other remaining - term securities firm subordinated bonds and insurance capital - supplementary bonds generally declined. The yields of 1 - year securities firm subordinated bonds and 3 - year insurance capital - supplementary bonds declined more significantly. The 3 - and 10 - year bonds of each rating were at a relatively high historical percentile and could be allocated opportunistically [65] - **Trading Statistics**: The trading activity of insurance company capital - supplementary bonds increased, while that of securities firm subordinated bonds decreased. In November, the turnover rates of insurance company capital - supplementary bonds and securities firm subordinated bonds were 9.32% and 9.84% respectively [70]

Group 1 - The report indicates that credit spreads have generally widened, with a focus on prioritizing mid-to-short-term coupon assets for investment [1][10] - The current yield for 1-year products is in the range of 1.72%-1.80%, with spreads below the central level since 2024 by 13-19 basis points [2][24] - For 2-3 year products, yields are between 1.83%-2.10%, and spreads are in the range of 19-42 basis points, with a recommendation to prioritize mid-to-short-term coupon assets due to high demand from funds and wealth management [2][25] Group 2 - The report notes that the 4-5 year products have yields ranging from 2.0%-2.35% and spreads between 26-55 basis points, with a marginal recovery in coupon configuration value [3][26] - For products over 5 years, yields are between 2.23%-2.76% with spreads from 24-64 basis points, indicating a need for cautious trading participation due to market volatility [3][26] - The report highlights that the overall sentiment in the bond market remains cautious, with credit spreads showing weak compression momentum [6][24] Group 3 - Key policies include the Shenzhen Municipal Financial Office emphasizing the prevention and resolution of financial risks, and the second meeting of bondholders for "22 Vanke MTN004" [4][28] - The report mentions that nearly 70% of bond-issuing entities in Henan have completed the repayment of hidden debts, indicating significant progress in debt resolution and market transformation [4][28] - The report also notes the first appearance of Guizhou's municipal state-owned enterprise in the capital market, marking a significant event in the current round of debt resolution [4][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the number and scale of credit bond defaults decreased significantly, and the credit environment improved. The number of defaulted bonds was 16, with a total default amount of 15.084 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 54 bonds and 77.145 billion yuan respectively [1][11]. - All first - time defaulting entities in 2025 were non - state - owned enterprises, and the number of defaults in the real estate industry decreased. Looking ahead to 2026, real estate may still be the main risk point in the credit bond market, and local risks of some weak - qualified small and medium - sized financial institutions should be vigilant, but the probability of a systemic impact on the market is low [1][13]. - The default rate dropped to a historically low level. In 2025, the marginal default rate was 0.22%, the second - lowest since 2014 [1][22]. - Last week, after an important meeting released a signal of monetary easing, credit bond yields turned downward in the second half of the week but the repair momentum was weak. Looking forward, due to the impact of wealth management funds returning to the balance sheet at the end of the quarter, incremental funds may be limited, and there is insufficient impetus to compress credit spreads. It is recommended to focus on the coupon strategy [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Credit Bond Market Default Feature Summary - **Default Quantity and Scale Decreased Significantly, Credit Environment Improved**: In 2025, the number and amount of defaulted credit bonds continued the downward trend of the previous year. There were 16 defaulted bonds with a total amount of 15.084 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 54 bonds and 77.145 billion yuan respectively. From 2014 - 2025, substantial defaults were the main type in the credit bond market (73.4%), and in 2025, there were 11 substantial defaults and 5 extensions [11]. - **First - time Defaulting Entities were All Non - state - owned Enterprises, Real Estate Industry Default Quantity Decreased**: The 16 first - time defaulted bonds in 2025 came from 12 non - state - owned enterprise issuers, covering 6 industries such as real estate and non - bank finance. Historically, non - state - owned enterprises had significantly more defaults than state - owned enterprises. The real estate industry was still the main risk point in 2026, and local risks of some small and medium - sized financial institutions should be watched out for [13][17]. - **Default Rate Dropped to a Historically Low Level**: In 2025, the marginal default rate was 0.22%, the second - lowest since 2014. The overall recovery rate from 2014 to 2025 was 13.76%, with state - owned enterprises having a higher recovery rate of 27.12% than non - state - owned enterprises at 10.28% [22]. 3.2 Credit Bond Yield Overview - Last week, after an important meeting released a signal of monetary easing, credit bond yields turned downward in the second half of the week but the repair momentum was weak. Overall, credit bond yields showed mixed trends, with financial bonds performing better than non - financial credit bonds, and the 3 - year non - financial credit bonds performing better [27]. - Wealth management scale and the proportion of broken - net products decreased. The average yield of wealth management products had been declining for 6 consecutive weeks since early November. Looking forward, due to the impact of wealth management funds returning to the balance sheet at the end of the quarter, incremental funds may be limited, and there is insufficient impetus to compress credit spreads. It is recommended to focus on the coupon strategy. Institutions with stable liability ends can moderately participate in 3 - year medium - and high - grade bank secondary and perpetual bonds and securities firm subordinated bonds with relatively high spreads [29][36]. 3.3 Primary Market - **Issuance Volume**: Last week, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while the net financing scale decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The net financing scale of urban investment bonds and financial bonds decreased month - on - month, while that of industrial bonds increased [37]. - **Issuance Cost**: The average issuance interest rate of credit bonds increased slightly. The average issuance interest rate of urban investment bonds increased month - on - month, while that of industrial and financial bonds decreased [45]. - **Issuance Term**: The average issuance term of credit bonds decreased month - on - month. The issuance terms of industrial and financial bonds decreased, while that of urban investment bonds increased [47]. - **Cancellation of Issuance**: The number and scale of cancelled credit bond issuances decreased last week [53]. 3.4 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Except for the trading volume of securities firm subordinated bonds, the trading volume of other types of credit bonds rebounded last week, with the trading volume of bank secondary capital bonds increasing by over 13 billion yuan. The trading terms of different types of bonds showed different trends in terms of remaining maturity and implied rating [57][58]. - **Trading Liquidity**: The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds increased last week. The turnover rates of different terms of each type of bond also showed different trends [59]. - **Spread Tracking**: Last week, most urban investment bond spreads widened, with the 10 - year AA + grade urban investment bond spreads widening the most. Most industrial bond spreads also widened, with the real estate industry having the largest spread widening for both AAA and AA grades. Most bank secondary and perpetual bond spreads narrowed, while the spreads of securities firm subordinated bonds widened across the board, and most insurance subordinated bond spreads narrowed [65][73][76]. 3.5 Weekly Hot Bonds Overview Based on qeubee's bond liquidity scoring, the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity scores were selected for investors' reference [80]. 3.6 Credit Rating Adjustment Review Last week, 3 bonds had their debt ratings downgraded, and there were no upgrades [84].

Group 1: Credit Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on structural opportunities in the short to medium-term credit products, particularly in the 2-3 year and 4-5 year categories, where yields are currently favorable [1][26][27] - For 2-3 year products, yields are primarily in the range of 1.84%-2.14% with spreads between 17-42 basis points, indicating a stable demand for short-term assets due to regulatory adjustments and cautious investment strategies [1][26] - The 4-5 year products show yields between 2.0%-2.5% and spreads of 22-60 basis points, suggesting a recovery in the attractiveness of these assets despite recent market volatility [1][27] Group 2: Market Overview - The credit bond market has seen a general decline in yields, with a mixed performance in credit spreads, influenced by a stable funding environment and recent economic data [6][10] - The central economic work conference has indicated potential for further monetary easing, which may affect market sentiment and trading strategies moving forward [6][21] - The report notes that the overall sentiment in the bond market remains weak, with caution advised for institutions with less stable funding [6][21] Group 3: Key Policies and Events - The report highlights significant corporate actions, such as China Metallurgical Group's sale of assets to enhance liquidity and focus on core operations, which may positively impact its valuation [3][28] - The Yunnan provincial government has introduced measures to regulate public-private partnership projects, aiming to prevent hidden local government debts, which could influence future financing conditions [3][29] - The central economic work conference has reiterated the need to address risks associated with local government financing platforms, suggesting a more proactive approach to debt restructuring and management [4][30]