每经记者｜周程程 每经编辑｜毕陆名 8月7日，国家市场监督管理总局发布了《2018年上半年市场环境形势分析》（以下简称"《分析》"）显 示，上半年，市场主体总量超过1亿户，达到标志性高点，至6月底实有1.03亿户。 其中，企业3231.5万户，占31.4%。按2017年底全国人口计算，平均每千人拥有市场主体74.09户，平均 每千人拥有企业23.25户。 值得注意的是，从重点行业看，制造业新设企业同比增速由一季度下降1.9%提升为增长1.9%；金融企 业继续负增长，下降4.4%；房地产业保持较快增速，增长20.6%。 从企业类型看，外商投资企业保持高速增长态势，新设4.5万户，增长97.4%。特别是在粤港澳大湾区开 放政策的积极影响下，广东新设外资企业2.4万户，增长2.2倍，占全国的54.7%。 市场监管总局指出，新设市场主体的大量涌现，成为创业创新活力的重要标志，对促进就业、增加税收 和促进经济健康发展发挥了重要作用。 图片来源：新华社 数据显示，1~5月，新办理注册登记的税务管理户439.51万户，同比增长7.64%。据测算，新办税务管理 户创办当年纳税对税收增长的贡献率为4.9%，比上年同期提高1.2 ...

SHMET 网讯：美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）上周日表示，美国在2026年不存在陷 入经济衰退的风险，并宣称民众将很快从特朗普政府在贸易和税收方面的经济政策中获益。 在接受NBC新闻《会见新闻界》（Meet the Press）节目采访时，贝森特表示："我对2026年非常、 非常乐观。我们已经为实现强劲且非通胀性的经济增长奠定了基础。" 贝森特称，共和党大规模支出计划——《大而美法案》（One Big, Beautiful Bill Act）的部分内容 仍在逐步生效，其经济效果尚未完全显现。这项新法律将特朗普2017年的减税政策永久化，同时包括用 于抵消社会保障税的老年人"奖金"，以及更大的州和地方税收抵扣。该计划还为小费收入、加班工资和 汽车贷款提供了税收减免。 贝森特补充说，医疗保健成本也有望变得更加可负担。这位财长表示，特朗普政府本周将在该议题 上发布更多消息。目前，由于与《平价医疗法案》市场补贴延期相关的国会僵局，数百万人的医疗成本 预计将被推高。 贝森特指出，限制加班费税收、削减小费税和部分人群的社会保障税，以及使汽车贷款可抵扣等政 策变化，将提高美国工薪阶层的实际收入水 ...

Economic Overview - The Russian economy showed a complex but overall balanced development in Q3, with GDP growth slowing down but domestic consumption remaining stable. September's GDP grew by 0.9% year-on-year, surpassing August's 0.4%, while overall Q3 growth was only 0.6% [1][3] Consumer Spending and Income - Retail, catering, and paid services sectors saw a revenue increase of 2.5% year-on-year in September, slightly down from 3% in August. Food consumption declined, but service and non-food goods consumption continued to grow. Analysts believe that rising household income is the main driver of economic vitality [3][4] - Real disposable income for residents grew by 8.5% in Q3 and 9.2% from January to September, significantly exceeding the annual forecast of 3.8%. This increase in income creates favorable conditions for active consumption [3][4] Income Structure and Inflation - The structure of income has changed, with wage income now accounting for 40.9% of total household income, a 2% increase over the past year. This indicates a stable core income source for residents, supporting consumption even as wage growth slows [3][4] - The annualized inflation rate at the end of Q3 was approximately 4.9%, lower than expected, which helped maintain real income growth above predicted levels and increased residents' confidence in financial stability [3][4] Delayed Demand and Consumer Sentiment - Accumulated delayed demand is significant, as residents have been saving for large purchases like cars and appliances. The implementation of vehicle scrappage tax policies has further incentivized vehicle purchases, positively impacting consumer spending [4] - The consumer sentiment index shows an increase in the proportion of respondents willing to spend idle funds on high-value items, rising by 2.1 percentage points to 26.6% [4] Labor Market Trends - The unemployment rate in September was 2.2%, slightly up from 2.1% in August, indicating a cooling labor market. However, high consumer activity and disposable income growth are stabilizing consumption [5][6] - The labor market has shown signs of stabilization, with the number of job vacancies per job seeker decreasing from 5 to 2.3 over the past year, reflecting a natural adjustment after rapid expansion earlier in the year [6]

Group 1 - Gold prices are weakening and are expected to record a weekly decline due to a stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in December [1] - As of the report, spot gold has decreased by 0.3% to $4,059.86 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of approximately 1% for the week [1] - The mixed U.S. employment report has diminished hopes for a rate cut in December, leading gold to continue its downward trend [1] Group 2 - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that there is still a possibility of a rate cut "in the near term," which has significantly raised market expectations for a December rate cut [2] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data released showed an increase of 119,000 jobs in September, far exceeding the expected 50,000 [3] - The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.3% to 4.4%, but remains within the Federal Reserve's expected range [3] Group 3 - The latest analysis suggests that gold prices are attempting to regain momentum, with traders needing to push prices above the $4,100 mark for a potential rally [4] - If gold surpasses $4,100, the next target will be $4,150, followed by testing the previous cycle high of $4,245 set on November 13 [4] - Should gold fail to hold above $4,100, it may decline to $4,050 and subsequently test the support level at the 50-day simple moving average of $3,981 [4]

Group 1 - The core narrative for the global market in 2025 includes the long-term weakening of the US dollar credit, restructuring of global supply chains, gold as a new anchor for the monetary system, AI as the infrastructure for a new industrial transformation, and non-ferrous metals as the new oil [1][8][36] - Domestic assets in 2025 are driven by fundamentals such as external demand and new industries, while high-yield assets are concentrated in non-ferrous metals and AI-related sectors [1][9][10] - The existence of a "temperature difference" in the medium term indicates that new industrial investments are concentrated, with emerging sectors showing high prosperity, while traditional sectors are weak [1][10] Group 2 - In 2026, a "mirror" relationship may form, with global narratives expected to converge, leading to reduced uncertainty in the global trade environment [2][11] - The expected recovery in investment gaps during the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan may stabilize the real estate sector and improve consumption rates [2][13] - The profitability of industrial enterprises is projected to improve, with an expected increase in profit growth from approximately 3% to 6.6% [3][14] Group 3 - The transition of macroeconomic policy from "counter-cyclical" to "expanding domestic demand" is expected to enhance fundamental pricing power [3][15][16] - The combination of converging narratives and reduced temperature differences will impact asset pricing characteristics, with a shift from forward pricing to a combination of near and far pricing for commodities [4][17] - The normalization of risk preferences among residents will lead to an increase in rental yield pricing power in the real estate sector [4][18] Group 4 - The next round of narratives may include themes such as industrialization in southern countries, the second wave of globalization for Chinese enterprises, AI scenario applications, and a new quality of consumption [5][20] - The traditional investment research framework faces challenges from these narratives, necessitating an optimization of the investment research framework to incorporate narrative analysis [5][21] - Key assumptions for economic judgment in 2026 include a moderate recovery in investment gaps, improvement in consumption, stable export fundamentals, and a stabilization of real estate decline [6][22][23][26]

Group 1: Market Performance - The New York stock market showed significant improvement in sentiment driven by macro data and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with all three major indices closing higher on November 21 [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 493.15 points to close at 46,245.41, an increase of 1.08%; the S&P 500 gained 64.23 points to finish at 6,602.99, up 0.98%; and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 195.035 points to close at 22,273.083, a rise of 0.88% [1] - All eleven sectors of the S&P 500 index experienced gains, with the communication services and healthcare sectors leading with increases of 2.15% and 2.11%, respectively [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve, indicated that the soft job market poses a greater threat to the economy compared to rising inflation, suggesting that the Fed could continue to lower interest rates [1] - Williams stated that while monetary policy has become somewhat more accommodative, it remains in a moderately restrictive state, allowing for further adjustments to bring rates closer to neutral [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The FedWatch Tool indicated a significant increase in the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, rising from 39.1% to 71.7% [2] - The preliminary data from S&P Global showed that the U.S. manufacturing PMI for November was 51.9, below the expected 52.3 and the revised 52.5 from October, marking a four-month low [2] - The services PMI for the same period was reported at 55, exceeding the revised 54.8 from October, representing a four-month high [2] - The final consumer confidence index for November was reported at 51, surpassing the expected 50.5 and the initial estimate of 50.3, but still lower than October's 53.6 [3]

Core Insights - In October, China's total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, the highest monthly growth rate this year [1] - From January to October, total electricity consumption accumulated to 8.6246 trillion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, indicating a positive trend in the national economy [1] Factors Contributing to Growth - The high growth rate in October is attributed to multiple factors, including a low base from the previous year and the effective release of consumer potential during the overlapping National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [2] - The "autumn tiger" phenomenon, characterized by significant temperature increases in southern China, led to a surge in residential cooling electricity consumption, with notable increases in Jiangxi (65.9%), Zhejiang (63.2%), and Shanghai (47.0%) [2] Sector Performance - The primary industry showed steady growth, with October electricity consumption at 12 billion kilowatt-hours, up 13.2% year-on-year [3] - The secondary industry, as the main electricity consumer, recorded 568.8 billion kilowatt-hours in October, a 6.2% increase, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors performing particularly well, growing by 11% [3] - The tertiary industry emerged as one of the fastest-growing sectors, with October electricity consumption at 160.9 billion kilowatt-hours, up 17.1% year-on-year, driven by the retail and information technology services sectors [3] Long-term Economic Outlook - From January to October, the tertiary industry's electricity consumption reached 1.67 trillion kilowatt-hours, growing by 8.4%, reflecting the deepening transition of China's economic dynamics [4] - The overall electricity consumption data indicates an improvement in economic activity, consumer potential release, and optimization of industrial structure, reinforcing a positive long-term economic outlook [4]

Core Insights - US business activity accelerated in November, reaching the strongest growth in four months, driven by a surge in the services sector and improved business confidence regarding future economic prospects [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The S&P Global's preliminary composite output index rose by 0.2 points to 54.8, indicating economic expansion as it remains above 50 [1] - The services index reached a four-month high, while the manufacturing sector's expansion slowed down [1] - The composite index for expected output over the next year increased by 7.3 points, marking the largest monthly gain in five years [1] Group 2: Inflation and Costs - Inflation pressures rebounded in November for the first time since July, with businesses reporting higher import tariffs leading to increased costs [1] - The materials prices paid index rose to 63.1, the second-highest level in three years, while the input cost index for services reached its highest level since early 2023 [1] - Service sector pricing also increased, indicating rising costs amid persistent inflation [1] Group 3: Employment and Manufacturing Challenges - Despite high costs, hiring remained moderate, with the composite employment index showing a slight decline [1] - The composite new orders index rose to its highest level of the year, driven entirely by a rebound in service sector demand [2] - Manufacturing faced challenges with slowing new order growth and a significant increase in finished goods inventory, reaching the highest level recorded since 2007 [2]

风险提示及免责条款 美国11月标普全球综合PMI初值 54.8，预期 54.6，前值 54.6。 美国11月标普全球制造业PMI初值 51.9， 预期 52，前值 52.5。 美国11月标普全球服务业PMI初值 55，预期 54.6，前值 54.8。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the UK manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is at 50.2, suggesting a stable manufacturing sector [1] - The services sector's business activity index for November is reported at 50.5, indicating slight growth in the services industry [1] - The composite output index, which combines both manufacturing and services, is also at 50.5, reflecting overall stability in the UK economy [1]