期货研究报告|宏观数据 2026-01-05 12 月制造业景气回升 ——宏观景气度系列十二 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 宏观事件 12 月中国制造业 PMI 为 50.1（+0.9pct MoM）；非制造业 PMI 为 50.2（+0.7pct MoM）。 核心观点 ■ 制造业 PMI 供给：小幅改善。12 月生产指数为 51.7，较上月变化 1.7 。供应商配送时间指数为 50.2， 较上月变化 0.1 。 需求：外需降幅收窄。12 月新订单指数为 50.8，较上月变化 1.6 。新出口订单指数为 49，较上月变化 1.4 。在手订单指数为 46，较上月变化 0.5 。 供求平衡：仍待改善。12 月供需指数（需求-供给）为-0.9 ，较上月变化-0.1 ，较去年 同期变化 0.2 ，较过去三年均值变化 0.2 。 价格：盈利收缩。12月原材料价格指数为 53.1，较上月变化-0.5 。出厂价格指数为 48.9， 较上月变化 0.7 。出厂价格-原材料价格差值为-4.2 ， ...

2025年12月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数 （PMI）。 数据显示，2025年12月份，制造业PMI为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，2025年4月份以来首次 升至扩张区间。当月，非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.2%和50.7%，比上月上升 0.7个、1.0个百分点。 "三大指数均升至扩张区间，我国经济景气水平总体回升。"国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师 霍丽慧分析认为。 产需两端明显回升 制造业PMI升至扩张区间 "2025年12月份，制造业PMI指数比上月大幅回升0.9个百分点至50.1%，超出市场预期。"东方金诚 首席宏观分析师王青表示。 大型企业PMI重返扩张区间。2025年12月份，大型企业PMI为50.8%，较上月上升1.5个百分点；中 型企业PMI上升0.9个百分点至49.8%，景气水平回升。小型企业PMI指数降至48.6%。专家认为，原因是 本轮稳增长政策以扩投资为主，大、中型企业受益更为明显。 重点行业PMI均高于上月。高技术制造业PMI为52.5%，较上月上升2.4个百分点，行业增长态势向 好。装备制造业和消费品 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] PMI 超预期，债市震荡偏弱——12 月 PMI 点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 12 月，制造业和非制造业 PMI 重新站上荣枯线。12 月以来高炉/焦化/PTA 开工率、钢 铁产量等高频指标走弱，但制造业景气度逆势改善，究其原因，新动能对制造业逐渐形成支撑， 但其相关行业后续可能更容易受到外需波动的影响，未来新旧动能是否能够顺利转换是观测经 济基本面复苏节奏的重要窗口。PMI 数据公布当日债市收益率一度明显走高，我们预计长端利 率宽幅震荡，预计 10 年期国债收益率在 1.8%-1.9%区间震荡，30 年国债收益率在 2.2%-2.4% 之间震荡。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 ⚫ 非制造业景气度重回荣枯线以上，符合季节性走势，其中建筑业为主要拉动，服务业景气 水平也小幅回升。从分项看，非制造业回升或源于内需：新订单、存货与从业人员指数分 别回升 1.6pct、0.4pct、0. ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 is reported at 50.1%, indicating a return to the expansion zone after 8 months, with improvements in both production and demand [2][3] - The production index increased by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7%, attributed to reduced uncertainties from the external trade environment [3] - The new orders index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8%, marking the first return to expansion in the second half of the year [3] - New export orders increased by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%, showing a significant slowdown in contraction, while the import index continued to contract [3] - The December non-manufacturing business activity index rose by 0.7 percentage points to 50.2%, returning to the expansion zone, driven significantly by the construction sector [4] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased by 1.0 percentage point to 50.7%, reflecting a rebound in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [4] - The outlook for January 2026 suggests continued expansion in manufacturing due to a stable external trade environment and the gradual implementation of incremental policies [4] U.S. Monetary Series - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is crucial for understanding changes in dollar liquidity, primarily through "bilateral accounting" methods [6][7] - The Fed's balance sheet has been in an expansion trend since its inception, influenced by economic development and institutional changes [7] - The historical changes in the Fed's balance sheet can be divided into four phases, with the most recent phase (2020-present) seeing accelerated expansion due to the pandemic [7] Financial Engineering Research - Company governance is identified as a critical component of corporate competitiveness, directly affecting resource allocation efficiency, profitability sustainability, and risk management [9] - A well-governed company enhances operational quality and market profitability expectations, leading to a steady increase in stock prices [9][10] - The report outlines six dimensions of corporate governance that impact stock pricing, including shareholder behavior, debt management, and ESG scores [10][11] - Future research will focus on the interaction effects of governance indicators, heterogeneity across different scenarios, and the development of a multidimensional governance evaluation system [11]

每经记者｜张宏 每经编辑｜魏官红 日前，国家统计局公布的数据显示，2025年12月，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指 数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.1%、50.2%和50.7%，比上月上升0.9个、0.7个和1.0个百分点，三大指 数均升至扩张区间。 值得注意的是，制造业PMI时隔8个月重返扩张区间，制造业新订单指数则是2025年下半年以来首次升 至临界点以上。 制造业新订单指数回升 近期制造业方面有哪些积极因素？ 从企业规模来看，2025年12月，大型企业PMI为50.8%，比上月上升1.5个百分点，升至临界点以上；中 型企业PMI为49.8%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，景气水平回升；小型企业PMI为48.6%，比上月下降0.5 个百分点，景气水平有所回落。 为何不同规模的企业PMI走势出现分化？ 王青认为，这背后是本轮稳增长政策以扩投资为主，大、中型企业受益更为明显，小型企业与消费市场 关系更为紧密，当前消费需求偏弱对其影响较大。 反内卷对产业链上下游价格影响如何？ 王青指出，反内卷对上游原材料价格的拉动作用依然较强，2025年12月主要原材料购进价格指数为 53.1%，尽管较上月回落 ...

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is expected to slow to 4.6%, with a strong production sector and moderate demand recovery [1][14] - Industrial production is projected to maintain steady growth, significantly supporting the overall GDP growth target [2][15] - External demand remains resilient, with export growth expected to continue positively [1][5] Production - The industrial added value growth rate for December is estimated at 5.0%, with an annual growth rate of 5.9% for 2025, significantly higher than GDP growth [2][15] - Improvement in demand is noted, driven by pre-holiday inventory buildup and construction progress [2][16] - Manufacturing enterprises are experiencing improved production and market demand, with production growth slightly outpacing demand [2][16] Consumption - The retail sales growth rate for December is expected to be 1.5%, a slight increase from 1.3% [3][19] - Policies supporting the replacement of old products are anticipated to bolster consumer spending, particularly in durable goods [3][19] - The automotive sector continues to face challenges with declining sales and increased discounts, impacting overall retail recovery [3][20] Investment - Fixed asset investment for 2025 is projected to decline by 3.3%, with manufacturing investment showing resilience at 1.2% growth, while infrastructure and real estate investments are under pressure [4][23] - The investment environment has been notably weak since June 2025, with a focus on stabilizing growth in 2026 [4][25] - Manufacturing and broad infrastructure investments are expected to jointly drive growth in early 2026, with a projected increase of 2.5% for the year [4][25][30] Export - December export growth is anticipated at 3.9%, with an annual growth rate of 6.6% for 2026, supported by stable external demand from non-developed countries [5][5] - The stabilization of US-China trade relations and reduced trade friction with Europe and Japan are expected to benefit exports [5][5] Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate for December is expected to be 0.7%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected at -1.9% [6][6] - The overall price level is expected to remain stable, with core CPI showing signs of recovery [6][6] Employment - The urban unemployment rate for December is projected to rise slightly to 5.2%, influenced by seasonal factors [7][7] - Continued policy support is expected to help stabilize employment, particularly for vulnerable groups [7][7] Monetary Policy - Financial data for December indicates continued pressure, with new loans and social financing expected to decline [8][8] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for flexible monetary policy to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery [8][8]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ （来源：李超宏观研究与资产配置） 分析师：李超/林成炜/廖博/何佳烨/潘高远/费瑾/王瑞明 研究助理：汤子玉 具体参见2026年1月2日报告《12月经济前瞻：工业生产引领增长，蓄力一季度开门红——2025年12月宏观数据预测》，如需报告全文或数据底稿，请联系 团队成员或对口销售。 全文约16000字，阅读大约需要36分钟 我们预计2025年四季度GDP同比增速为4.6%，经济运行呈现生产偏强、需求修复偏温和的格局：供给端，工业生产延续稳增长态势，对增长形成主要支 撑；需求端，12月社零同比预计小幅回升，以旧换新资金前置与元旦"拼假"效应对消费构成托底，但汽车在销量同比下滑与年末加大折扣导致的量价双压 下仍是主要拖累。投资端仍处低位，制造业投资相对有韧性，但基建偏弱、地产继续承压，制约内需弹性。外需保持韧性，出口增速预计维持正增长。价 格层面，CPI温和、PPI负值收敛但通胀修复仍偏缓。金融数据仍显示信用扩张偏弱，M1、M2增速小幅回落。综合来看，一方面，12月经济活动相较上月 总体加快，12月随着内外需修复及年底各行业年度收官冲刺，有望 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates that Germany's employment is projected to decline in 2025, marking the first decrease since 2020, with an average employment number dropping by approximately 5,000 compared to 2024 [1] - In 2025, the manufacturing sector is expected to see a significant reduction of 143,000 jobs, a decline of 1.8%, while the construction sector will lose 23,000 jobs, a decrease of 0.9% [1] - The service sector, however, is projected to avoid a sharp decline, with an increase of 164,000 jobs, representing a growth of 0.5%, particularly in public services, education, and health, which will see an increase of 205,000 jobs, a growth of 1.7% [1] Group 2 - The unemployment rate in Germany is expected to rise significantly, with an increase of 161,000 unemployed individuals, marking a growth of 10.8%, leading to an unemployment rate increase from 3.1% to 3.5% [1] - The analysis from the Federal Statistical Office suggests that the slowdown in economic growth and demographic changes are impacting the labor market, with fewer young workers entering the workforce to replace retiring baby boomers [2] - The participation rate in the labor market is being supported by the net immigration of foreign workers and the increasing employment of older individuals and women [2]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery in December, driven by an increase in working days and the effectiveness of policy financial tools, which improved demand in infrastructure and manufacturing investment chains [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - Key indicators related to production and demand improved across the board, with factory price indicators rebounding, reflecting recovery in various manufacturing sectors due to the combination of working day differences and policy support [1] - Industries benefiting from this recovery include those in the infrastructure chain driven by policy financial tools, as well as the automotive and textile sectors, which saw improvements in export growth [1] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI showed improvement, primarily driven by a recovery in the construction industry, while the service sector remains relatively weak, indicating that the impact of incremental tools needs to expand further [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Overall, the economic climate improved in December due to the combination of more working days and the influence of policy financial tools, with expectations that the effects of these policies will continue to manifest, promoting marginal economic improvement [1]

2026年将呈现出哪些特点？可以概括为两个关键词：不确定性与可能性。 文/吴晨 不确定性不言而喻。一边是以"做交易"为行事逻辑的特朗普持续打破全球既有秩序：以自我为中心、以 利益为上，政策缺乏持续性，全世界都需要适应他的多变。如果说这种不确定性更多体现为随个人偏好 起伏的"随机波动"，那么，技术狂飙所带来的不确定性，其背后则蕴含着多种可能性。 一种可能是AI泡沫的破裂。历史上的技术浪潮，大多经历过膨胀与破裂的过程，AI不可能例外。但如 果放长时间尺度来看，我们仍处在AI发展的1.0阶段，类似于世纪之交的互联网1.0时期。因此，即便泡 沫破裂，也不会改变AI长期进化的方向。 另一种可能性，是AI对职场带来的巨大冲击。2026年是AI Native（AI原住民）毕业的第一年。他们也 是第一批在GPT环境中成长起来、同时又目睹入门级工作被大规模替代的一代人。AI将如何重塑职场， 2026年或将给出初步答案。 回顾过去四分之一个世纪，iPhone时刻与诺基亚危局，或许是理解不确定性与可能性最具代表性的案 例。新技术只有抵达"iPhone时刻"，才能真正改变消费者行为；而在位者一旦误判趋势，往往会从巅峰 迅速坠落。"门 ...