新华财经北京8月21日电（王姝睿）尽管关税环境对许多欧洲企业造成了影响，但最新的采购经理人调 查显示，本月欧元区的商业活动增速有所加快。 Cyrus de la Rubia补充称，服务部门销售价格通胀基本保持稳定，或为欧央行提供些许安慰。 欧洲央行行长拉加德此前指出，近期达成的贸易协议缓解了部分全球不确定性，而强劲的劳动力市场以 及内需是推动欧元区增长的关键。荷兰国际集团（ING）经济学家Bert Colijn表示，PMI数据表明目前 欧元区经济并未受到贸易摩擦的严重影响。 穆迪分析师认为，关税虽会拖累欧元区经济，但不足以使其脱轨。 （文章来源：新华财经） 德国8月私营部门活动环比小幅改善，主要受制造业表现超预期支撑。8月德国制造业PMI初值升至 49.9，高于7月的49.1及市场预期的48.8。该数据创2022年6月以来最高水平，表明制造业正逐步接近稳 定。产出实现稳健加速增长，主要受新工厂订单显著上升推动。新订单以2022年3月以来最快速度增 长，但出口销售出现五个月内首次小幅下滑。受益于油价下跌及欧元相对走强，投入成本通胀持续缓 解。制造业企业信心较前月小幅改善，与服务业更为保守的预期形成对比。 8月德 ...

新华财经北京8月21日电（王姝睿）受英国8月超预期的PMI数据提振，投资者认为英国央行在2025年再 次降息的可能性降低。 数据显示，英国8月综合采购经理人指数（PMI）初值升至53.0，创2024年8月以来最高水平，远超预期 值51.6。此次增长主要由服务业强劲反弹推动，服务业PMI从7月的51.8升至53.6。英国企业对未来一年 的商业活动预期达到2024年10月以来最乐观水平。 凯投宏观认为，英国商业活动表现强劲的迹象增加了英国央行更长时间维持利率不变的可能性。根据周 四公布的商业调查，本月经济活动加快，显示英国私营部门的活力强于此前预期。 S&P Global首席商业经济学家克里斯·威廉姆森表示，数据表明英国经济在夏季加速增长，订单数据仍 显示需求环境"不平衡且脆弱"。企业报告称，他们对近期政府政策变化的影响表示担忧，同时也对更广 泛的地缘政治不确定性感到不安。由于4月雇主工资税和最低工资上调，企业劳动力成本增加，各行业 均在裁员，但裁员速度较7月有所放缓。 尽管整体数据向好，但英国8月制造业PMI跌至47.3，为三个月以来新低，并连续第五个月低于50荣枯 线，反映出全球贸易环境对其造成的影响。 英国 ...

尽管欧盟与美国的贸易协议锁定了对美出口的更高关税，欧元区私营部门仍以15个月以来的最快速度增长，制造业结束了三年的 收缩态势。 周四S&P Global公布的数据显示： 8月份，欧元区综合采购经理人指数(PMI)从7月的50.9升至51.1，高于分析师预期的50.6。 欧元区8月制造业PMI从49.8升至50.5，为2022年6月以来首次突破荣枯线上方，远高于预期的49.5。 服务业PMI小幅下降至50.7，仍处于荣枯线上方。 欧元区两大经济体德国和法国经济活动均有所好转。 其中，德国私人部门活动意外加速，综合PMI升至50.9，制造业PMI跃升至49.9，接近三年来首次回到扩张区间。制造业产出指 数攀升至52.6，创41个月新高，新订单增长为2022年3月以来最快。法国综合PMI升至49.8好于预期，虽仍低于荣枯线但有所上 升。 汉堡商业银行首席经济师Cyrus de la Rubia表示，尽管面临美国关税、地缘政治不确定性等阻力，欧元区企业似乎应对良好。 数据公布后，欧元兑美元持稳于1.1656，德国10年期国债收益率上升2个基点至2.73%。这一表现将支持那些认为欧洲央行无需急 于进一步降息的官员观点。 ...

尽管受到美国关税的影响，欧元区私营部门仍以15个月以来的最快速度扩张，制造业摆脱了长达三年的低迷态势。标普全球编制的综 合采购经理人指数(PMI)从7月份的50.9升至8月份的51.1，进一步高于50的荣枯分界线。分析师此前预测为50.6。 服务业表现略有减弱，但仍符合预期，制造业PMI则跃升至50.5，打破了小幅放缓的预期，并实现了自2022年6月以来的首次扩张。德 国的制造业也接近结束长达三年的低迷期。 他表示："美国的贸易政策正在产生影响。德国此前表现良好，这可能是因为美国客户提前采购，但现在订单也出现了下降。法国在过 去几个月里已经走出了外需下滑的困境，但新订单仍在下降。" 欧元区20国经济第二季度意外增长0.1%，但远低于此前三个月0.6%的增速，当时受到关税引发的囤货热潮的影响。通胀率徘徊在欧洲 央行设定的2%目标附近。 汉堡商业银行经济学家Cyrus de la Rubia周四表示："情况正在好转。尽管面临美国关税和普遍的不确定性等不利因素，但欧元区各地的 企业似乎都表现得相当不错。" 欧元兑美元汇率稳定在1.1654，此前曾小幅下跌，而欧元区债券价格则继续下跌，德国10年期国债收益率上涨2个基 ...

尽管制造业产出出现短暂反弹——产出指数从7月的收缩状态转为扩张，显示出一定的生产恢复迹象， 但新订单的持续下滑为复苏前景蒙上阴影。调查数据显示，8月新订单指数继续下降，反映出国内外需 求整体疲软。 与制造业的困境形成对比，日本服务业在8月继续保持扩张态势，但增速有所放缓。服务业PMI初值从7 月的53.6降至52.7，尽管仍处于扩张区间，但表明服务需求的增长动力正在减弱。 新华财经北京8月21日电日本8月制造业活动连续第二个月陷入萎缩，受美国关税政策影响，海外需求持 续疲软，出口导向型产业面临严峻挑战。 然而，制造业与服务业的综合表现显示出经济整体略有回暖。8月综合PMI产出指数从7月的51.6升至 51.9，创下六个月来的最快扩张速度。这一数据表明，尽管制造业承压，但国内服务需求的韧性仍在一 定程度上支撑着整体经济活动。 根据标普全球（S&P Global）发布的最新数据，日本8月制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）初值为49.9，虽 较7月终值48.9有所回升，但仍连续第二个月低于50.0的荣枯分界线，表明制造业活动仍在收缩区间徘 徊。 其中，海外新订单以17个月来的最快速度下滑，成为拖累制造业表现的主要因素。 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：高拓 （13705969808） 事项 7 月广义财政收入同比 3.6% ， 6 月同比 2.8% ； 7 月广义财政支出同比 12.1% ， 6 月同比 17.6% 。 报告摘要 一、下半年"财政退坡"值得担心吗？ （一）什么是 " 财政退坡 " ？ 全国财政预算在每年 3 月制定完毕，若后续执行中无预算调整 （增发债务）， 则 财政明显前倾的年份， 下半年或面临支出增速掉档，称为"财政退坡" ； 如 2022 年，受新增专项债前置发行等因素影响 ， 上半 年广义财政支出同比 12.4% ，下半年仅为 -4.6% 。 （二）为什么今年下半年可能出现 " 财政退坡 " ？ 一种观点认为， 下半年财政力度回落或明显拖累经济、仍需超常规增量政策对冲 ：今年上半年， 财政靠前 发力、支出增速较高 （ 8.9% ，全年目标或约 3.4%~5.1% ， 详见报告 《财政三个关切思辩：规模、缺 口、乘数》 ） ：若年内不再推出超常规增量政策 ， 今年下半年广义财政支出或约 -0.4~2.1% ，为 2022 年以来同期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue in China showed a slight year-on-year growth of 0.1% in the first seven months of 2023, marking the first positive growth this year, driven by improved economic conditions and various policy measures [1][7]. Revenue Breakdown - Total public budget revenue reached 13.58 trillion yuan, with tax revenue at 11.09 trillion yuan, down 0.3%, and non-tax revenue at 2.49 trillion yuan, up 2% [1]. - Domestic value-added tax revenue was approximately 4.26 trillion yuan, up 3%, indicating stable growth in industrial and service sectors [2]. - Corporate income tax revenue was about 3.06 trillion yuan, down 0.4%, reflecting pressure on corporate profits [2]. - Import goods value-added tax and consumption tax totaled 1.03 trillion yuan, down 6.1%, consistent with weak import trends [2]. - Personal income tax revenue was 927.9 billion yuan, up 8.8%, linked to stable growth in resident income and improved tax administration [2]. Monthly Trends - From April onwards, monthly tax revenue has shown continuous positive growth for four months, with July seeing a significant increase of 5% [4][6]. - The cumulative decline in tax revenue narrowed from 1.2% in the first half to 0.3% in the first seven months [6]. Sector Performance - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing and modern services showed positive tax revenue growth, with specific increases of 33% in railway and aerospace equipment, 10.1% in computer and communication equipment, and 12.7% in scientific research services [6]. Government Expenditure - Total public budget expenditure reached 16.07 trillion yuan, up 3.4%, with significant increases in social security (9.8%) and education (5.7%) spending [10]. - The overall fiscal expenditure, including government bonds, grew by 8.9% compared to the previous year, indicating strong fiscal support for economic growth [10].

Core Viewpoint - In the current situation, some enterprises are adopting a cautious approach or even retracting their strategies, while others are actively promoting strategic upgrades, focusing on technological innovation, digital transformation, international expansion, new business development, and green low-carbon initiatives [1][29]. Group 1: Current Development of Private Enterprises - A survey conducted by Beijing Dacheng Enterprise Research Institute involved 58 private entrepreneurs from 13 provinces, focusing on the development environment, international influences, operational conditions, challenges, and strategic responses of private enterprises [2]. - The introduction of the Private Economy Promotion Law and the convening of private enterprise forums reflect the government's commitment to enhancing the development environment for private enterprises, significantly boosting their confidence [3][5]. - The legal framework for private enterprises has seen historic progress, establishing a system that promotes fair competition, investment, financing, and innovation, thereby reducing uncertainties in long-term strategic planning [5][6]. Group 2: Improvement in Business Environment - The efficiency of government services has improved, with streamlined approval processes and enhanced support for intellectual property protection, benefiting enterprises significantly [6][7]. - Market access restrictions have been reduced, allowing more private enterprises to participate in major infrastructure projects, and financing support has increased, with broader access to funding and lower costs [7][8]. - Despite improvements, challenges remain in policy implementation, with some local governments exhibiting inaction and inconsistencies in administrative enforcement [9][10]. Group 3: Industry Performance and Challenges - There is a notable divergence in the performance of different industries, with traditional sectors like manufacturing and real estate facing significant challenges, while emerging sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals and AI are experiencing growth [13][14]. - Approximately 20% of surveyed enterprises reported growth in both revenue and profit, while nearly 30% experienced declines, particularly in real estate and traditional consumer sectors [14]. - Issues such as weak domestic demand, intense competition, and cash flow pressures continue to hinder enterprise development, particularly in the real estate sector [16]. Group 4: International Environment and Its Impact - The uncertain international environment poses challenges for trade, investment, and supply chain security, but it also drives Chinese enterprises to innovate and enhance their competitive capabilities [17][18]. - Trade tensions and tariffs have compressed profit margins for exporters, leading to increased costs and logistical risks [18]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations from Entrepreneurs - Entrepreneurs suggest accelerating the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law and enhancing legal protections for private enterprises [20][21]. - There is a call for improved fair competition mechanisms and equal treatment for private enterprises in mixed-ownership economies [22]. - Recommendations include optimizing the financing environment to alleviate cash flow pressures and enhancing labor relations to mitigate disputes [23][24]. Group 6: New Strategic Directions for Private Enterprises - Enterprises are focusing on innovation-driven growth, increasing R&D investments, and developing high-value products to enhance market competitiveness [30][31]. - Expanding into international markets and diversifying risks by targeting regions with lower geopolitical risks is a priority for many enterprises [33]. - Digital transformation is being accelerated to improve management efficiency and operational capabilities, with a focus on creating innovative ecosystems [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - The economic performance in July 2025 demonstrates resilience and vitality despite external pressures and adverse weather conditions, with steady growth in production, consumption, and investment, alongside stable employment and prices [7][10][20]. Economic Performance Overview - The industrial output in July showed a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with the equipment manufacturing sector growing by 8.4%, indicating strong industrial growth [7][51]. - The service sector also performed well, with a production index growth of 5.8% in July, driven by increased tourism and related services [7][15]. - Social retail sales increased by 3.7% year-on-year in July, with a notable 4% growth in goods retail [8][14]. - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% from January to July, with significant contributions from equipment updates and manufacturing investments [8][45]. Trade and Employment - The total import and export volume increased by 6.7% year-on-year in July, reflecting the resilience of foreign trade despite a complex international environment [8][31]. - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2%, indicating a steady employment situation [9][20]. New Growth Drivers - High-tech manufacturing saw a 9.3% increase in output, with significant growth in sectors like integrated circuits and new energy vehicles [10][38]. - The digital economy is rapidly developing, with a 8.4% increase in digital product manufacturing in July [10][38]. Consumer Trends - Consumer demand is being stimulated by policies such as the "old for new" consumption initiative, leading to increased sales in home appliances and cultural products [8][14]. - The service sector is experiencing growth, particularly in tourism and digital services, with a notable increase in transportation and cultural service indices [15][56]. Investment Landscape - Investment in manufacturing is growing, with a 6.2% increase in manufacturing investment from January to July, particularly in textiles and automotive sectors [45][46]. - Infrastructure investment is also on the rise, with water management and information transmission sectors seeing significant growth [46][47]. Policy Impact - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies is supporting production and investment growth, with a focus on stabilizing employment and market expectations [10][23]. - The government's commitment to deepening reform and opening up is enhancing the resilience and vitality of the economy [21][32].

至收盘时，日经指数上涨336.00点，收于43714.31点；东证指数上涨13.28点，收于3120.96点。 从板块来看，东京证券交易所33个行业板块多数上涨，服务业、运输机械、精密机器等板块涨幅靠前； 银行业、海洋运输业、电力及燃气业等9个板块当天收跌。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经东京8月18日电 东京股市两大股指18日震荡上扬。日经225种股票平均价格指数收盘上涨 0.77%，东京证券交易所股票价格指数上涨0.43%。两大指数均再创历史新高。 当天东京股市两大股指小幅高开。其后大盘走出震荡上扬行情。在部分投资者获利回吐操作不断涌现的 同时，近日持续升温的股市也吸引不少投资者积极参与，估值相对不高的绩优股普遍被投资者买入。当 天东京外汇市场日元对美元汇率走软，也对汽车等出口类股票形成利好，丰田、本田、日产等汽车制造 商股票普遍上涨。东京电子、Lasertec等半导体设备制造商则因投资者忧虑特朗普对半导体加税承压下 跌。 ...