Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices have declined, putting pressure on the prices of edible oils. The prices of the three major edible oils fluctuated yesterday. The sharp decline in crude oil prices had a certain impact on the price center of edible oils, intensifying the volatility of the vegetable oil market. Fundamentally, the supply prospects of rapeseed and soybeans are favorable, and combined with the consumption support during the upcoming double festivals, the edible oil market is facing both bullish and bearish factors [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,500 yuan/ton, with a change of 0 yuan and a change rate of 0.00%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,390 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan or 0.78%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,853 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan or 0.33% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.32%, and the spot basis was P01 + -30 yuan, up 30 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or 0.58%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 160 yuan, up 16 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.10%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 97 yuan, down 22 yuan [1] Market Information - Canadian rapeseed: In July 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 968,515 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.13%. Rapeseed oil production was 408,898 tons, up 12.15% month - on - month, and rapeseed meal production was 571,012 tons, up 12.62% month - on - month. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 542 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day, and the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 532 US dollars/ton, also down 3 US dollars/ton [2] - Malaysian palm oil: The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 was 933,437 tons, a 36.41% increase from the same period last month [2] - Other oils: The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1,179 US dollars/ton, down 23 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day, and the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was 1,181 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton. The C&F quotes of Canadian rapeseed oil (September and November shipments) remained unchanged. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (October shipment) remained unchanged, the C&F price of US West soybeans (October shipment) was down 5 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) was up 1 US dollar/ton. The import soybean premium quotes for some regions showed little change, with the Brazilian port (October shipment) up 3 cents/bushel [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral, the oils and fats are expected to show a volatile trend [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The policy benefits for US soybean oil are limited, and the oils and fats market will continue to fluctuate. The market is currently mixed with both long and short factors, including potential changes in Sino - US trade policies and the peak season for palm oil stocking during the Double Festival [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 yuan or 0.86% compared to the previous period; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,456 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan or 0.38%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,821 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan or 0.71% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan or 1.15%, with a spot basis of P01 + - 60 yuan, a decrease of 28 yuan compared to the previous period; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan or 0.23%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 144 yuan, an increase of 12 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan or 0.70%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 119 yuan, unchanged from the previous period [1] Recent Market News - **Policy News**: Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities is seeking to exempt crude palm kernel oil and refined palm kernel oil from the Sales and Services Tax (SST). These two raw materials currently face a 5% special tax, and the exemption application has been submitted to the Ministry of Finance [2] - **Production Data**: From August 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 3.26% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4%, and the output decreased by 1.21% [2] - **Inventory Data**: As of the end of the 34th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 192,000 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons from the previous week's 237,000 tons, and far lower than the 477,000 tons in the same period last year [2] - **Import Price Data**: The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (October shipment) was 475 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (October shipment) was 460 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) was 486 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. The import soybean premium quotes also had corresponding changes [2]

Group 1 - The overall bullish sentiment in the commodity market has slightly weakened, leading to a slowdown in the recent upward momentum of the oilseed market, but the fundamental support remains strong, maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on oilseeds [1] Group 2 - Malaysia's palm oil production in July was reported at 1.8124 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.09%, slightly below market expectations of 1.83 million tons; exports increased by 3.82% to 1.3091 million tons, slightly exceeding expectations; ending stocks rose by 4.02% to 2.1133 million tons, marking the fifth consecutive month of increase but still below the expected 2.23 million tons [2] - High-frequency data indicates that the seasonal production increase cycle may have peaked, with palm oil production from August 1 to 20 showing only a slight month-on-month increase of 0.3%, while export figures recorded a significant month-on-month increase of 13.6% [2] Group 3 - The USDA reported a significant unexpected decrease in U.S. soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, a reduction of 6.2 million acres compared to last year; despite an increase in yield forecast from 52.5 bushels per acre to 53.6 bushels per acre, total production was still adjusted down by 4.3 million bushels to 4.292 billion bushels [3] - The ProFarmer annual crop tour indicated that soybean pod counts were higher than last year in most major producing states, with new crop yield estimates at 53 bushels per acre, slightly below the USDA's estimate [3] Group 4 - As the South American soybean export season ends in September, the market will shift back to U.S. soybeans; if high tariff policies persist, there may be a supply gap in the domestic soybean market [4] - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced preliminary anti-dumping measures on canola seeds from Canada, requiring importers to pay a deposit of 75.8%, which could tighten supply as Canada is the largest source of canola imports for China [4] Group 5 - The U.S. EPA's Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) proposal sets higher blending volumes for biofuels in 2026 and 2027, which is expected to increase U.S. soybean oil demand by about 20% [5] - Indonesia's B40 policy is projected to require 1,419 million tons of palm oil, an increase of 223 million tons year-on-year, with potential future implementation of B50 further boosting domestic palm oil consumption [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - The high price of Malaysian palm oil may suppress demand, leading to price fluctuations and adjustments. The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The Malaysian palm oil futures price fell on Monday due to concerns that the recent high prices may suppress future demand. Although the overall demand remains good due to the upcoming festival stocking in China, the long - term inversion of the soybean oil - palm oil price spread also exerts certain pressure on the market [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9582.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.10% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8488.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.00 yuan or 0.35%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9891.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.00 yuan or 0.01% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9550.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 70.00 yuan or 0.74%. The spot basis was P01 + - 32.00, an increase of 80.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8620.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 80.00 yuan/ton or 0.94%. The spot basis was Y01 + 132.00, an increase of 50.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10010.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was OI01 + 119.00, a decrease of 1.00 yuan [1] Market News - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 were 1065005 tons, a 16.4% increase compared to the same period last month. China has purchased over 70% of its October - shipment soybeans, and only 10% of November - shipment soybeans. The domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased slightly last week. As of the week of August 22, the domestic main oil mills' soybean crushing volume was 2.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 220,000 tons, and an increase of 350,000 tons compared to the average of the past three years. It is expected that the oil mills' operating rate will remain high this week, and the crushing volume will rebound to about 2.5 million tons. The C&F prices of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment), US West soybeans (September shipment), and Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) were 471, 465, and 489 US dollars/ton respectively. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed (October and December shipments) were 550 and 540 US dollars/ton respectively [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the strategy [4] 2. Core View - The market is in a wait - and - see mood, and the prices of the three major oils are fluctuating. Palm oil was previously supported by biodiesel expectations and consumption, but the price has reached a bottleneck due to the inverted price difference between soybean oil and palm oil and the optimistic outlook for soybean oil supply [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The closing price of palm oil 2601 contract was 9500.00 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan (-0.57%); soybean oil 2601 contract was 8394.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan (-0.24%); and rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9791.00 yuan/ton, down 37.00 yuan (-0.38%) [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the palm oil spot price was 9500.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan (+0.64%); in Tianjin, the first - grade soybean oil spot price was 8480.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton (+0.24%); in Jiangsu, the fourth - grade rapeseed oil spot price was 9910.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan (-0.50%) [1] Market Information - Malaysia: As of April 2025, over 30,000 small - scale palm oil growers in Sabah have obtained MSPO certification, covering over 191,000 hectares, with a certification rate of 97.62%. In Sabah, about 97% of oil palm areas and over 92% in Sarawak are MSPO - certified. From August 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 2.12% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.46% month - on - month, and production increased by 0.3% month - on - month [2] - Argentina: The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1151 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars/ton; for November shipment, it was 1148 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton [2] - Canada: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1045 dollars/ton, unchanged; for November shipment, it was 1025 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - US and Brazil: The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 463 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton; US West soybeans (September shipment) was 457 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton; Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) was 488 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton. The import soybean premium for the Mexican Gulf (September shipment) was 217 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel; US West Coast (September shipment) was 191 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel; Brazilian ports (October shipment) was 295 cents/bushel, down 8 cents/bushel [2] - Indonesia: As of the end of June, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons. In June, its palm oil exports reached 3.61 million tons, a sharp increase of 35.4% month - on - month [2]

Group 1 - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum was held on August 20, co-hosted by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group [1] - Wang Zhaohui, Deputy General Manager of COFCO Oils, discussed the risks and response strategies in the domestic canola oil and peanut oil markets during the agricultural products forum [1] Group 2 - In the canola oil market, it is projected that China will have an additional supply of 19.6 million tons of rapeseed for the 2025/2026 season, with a production of 17.1 million tons and imports of 2.5 million tons [1] - Domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to be sufficient before the fourth quarter of this year, influenced by production and import fluctuations [1] Group 3 - For the peanut oil market, the National Grain and Oil Center indicates that peanut production will increase by 400,000 tons in the 2024/2025 season, with edible consumption and crushing demand rising by 100,000 tons and 300,000 tons respectively compared to the previous year [1] - Due to reduced imports, the ending inventory for that season is expected to drop to a low level [1] - Current peanut crops are in a critical growth stage, necessitating attention to growth conditions, harvest weather, yield per unit area, and import situations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have an impact on the market at the macro level. [3][5][6] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk factor is El Niño weather. [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - The main long positions in soybean oil have increased, indicating a bullish signal. [3] - The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production decline falling short of expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season, presenting a neutral situation. [3][4] - The spot price of soybean oil is 8,580, with a basis of 54, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, a bullish signal. [4] - On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, a bearish signal. [4] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [4] - Soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600. [3] Daily Views - Palm Oil - The main short positions in palm oil have decreased, indicating a bearish signal. [5] - Similar to the soybean oil situation, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [5] - The spot price of palm oil is 9,650, with a basis of 10, indicating a neutral situation. [5] - On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, a bullish signal. [5] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [5] - Palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700. [5] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - The main short positions in rapeseed oil have increased, indicating a bearish signal. [6] - The MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is the same as above, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [6] - The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,900, with a basis of 50, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, a bullish signal. [6] - On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, a bearish signal. [6] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [6] - Rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000. [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors include the US soybean stock-to-use ratio remaining around 4%, indicating tight supply, and the palm oil production reduction season. [7] - Bearish factors include the historically high prices of oils and fats, the continuous accumulation of domestic oils and fats inventories, the weak macroeconomy, and the high expected production of related oils and fats. [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the increase in domestic palm oil and rapeseed oil purchases and the call to postpone B50 limit the upside space for oils. However, in the long term, the supply - demand of the three major oils is expected to tighten, laying the foundation for the rise of oil prices. The price performance in the fourth quarter is expected to be stronger than that in the third quarter [2][60]. - For trading strategies, in the short term, the support levels for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are 8400 - 8500, 9300 - 9400, and 9700 respectively. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and chasing highs should be done with caution. Attention can be paid to the reverse spread of rapeseed oil 11 - 01 [3][61]. Summary by Directory Palm Oil - **Short - term Outlook**: Although palm oil is in the seasonal production - increasing period, with the August inventory rising to 2.13 million tons but lower than market expectations, and the high - frequency data showing a decrease in production and an increase in exports in August, palm oil is expected to strengthen again after a small correction [6]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: The MPOB July report shows that Malaysia's palm oil has strong supply and demand, but high domestic consumption leads to a lower - than - expected inventory increase. In August, export data improved, with a 16.5 - 21.3% increase in exports from August 1 - 15 compared to the previous month, and production growth slowed down, which is beneficial for price increases. However, seasonal inventory accumulation from September to October may disrupt prices [6]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The GAPKI May report shows a decrease in production and an increase in exports, with the inventory decreasing to 2.916 million tons. From June to July, production continued to decline, possibly due to the crackdown on illegal plantations. Domestic consumption and export demand are expected to remain strong, and the supply - demand is expected to maintain a long - term tight balance, driving up international palm oil prices. The main uncertainties come from lagging data and the risk of B50 postponement [8]. - **Domestic Palm Oil**: In the short term, the supply is relatively abundant, with the inventory reaching 617,300 tons as of August 15. Recently, the import profit has improved, and traders are increasing purchases from August to November. In the long term, although the supply pressure from the origin is not large, the price may be affected by Malaysian seasonal inventory accumulation, Indian procurement demand fluctuations, and Indonesian biodiesel policies [13][17]. Soybean Oil - **Short - term Outlook**: The USDA August report was unexpectedly bullish, and the high - level of domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories, along with concerns about future soybean supply, lead to a short - term strong - side oscillation for soybean oil [18]. - **US Soybean Production**: The USDA August report increased the 25/26 US soybean yield but decreased the planting area by 2.5 million acres. The new - crop supply - demand has tightened, and there is a possibility of further tightening. If the yield drops to 52.5 bushels, the ending inventory will decline to a very low level of 200 million bushels [19]. - **US Soybean Demand**: In the biodiesel sector, the increase in demand for US soybean oil in biodiesel is likely, but the increase may be lower than expected. In the export sector, as of August 18, there was no news of China's resumption of US soybean purchases, which may suppress US soybean prices [20]. - **South American Soybeans**: China continues to purchase a large amount of Brazilian soybeans. If China does not buy US soybeans, the cost of Brazilian soybeans will increase, and Argentina's soybean meal may be imported in large quantities in the fourth quarter [23]. - **Domestic Situation**: From May to August, a large amount of South American soybeans entered China, leading to high inventories of domestic soybeans and soybean oil. In the short term, the supply is sufficient, but after October, if US soybeans cannot be imported, the supply will tighten, which is beneficial for soybean oil destocking [23]. Rapeseed Oil - **Price Fluctuation**: The price of rapeseed oil has fluctuated significantly due to the preliminary anti - dumping review of Canadian rapeseed. After the initial sharp rise, it declined due to the risk warning from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and news of alternative imports [38]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand**: After August 14, the import of Canadian rapeseed will decrease significantly. Although there are plans to increase imports from other countries, they cannot fully make up for the supply shortage. The supply - demand of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil is expected to tighten, which is beneficial for price increases. However, policy adjustments and alternative imports may disrupt prices [40]. - **Impact on Canada**: China is the largest buyer of Canadian rapeseed. After the anti - dumping review, the export demand of Canadian rapeseed will face a significant decline, and the supply - demand will shift from slightly loose to significantly loose or even severely surplus, suppressing the price of Canadian rapeseed [50]. - **International Trade**: After the anti - dumping decision, China's dependence on Canadian rapeseed products will decrease, while its dependence on Australian rapeseed and rapeseed oil from other countries will increase. Canada will increase its dependence on the US, UAE, and the EU [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - Indonesia's crackdown on illegal plantations has led to a volatile and upward - trending palm oil market. The price of palm oil is affected by Indonesia's policy of confiscating illegal plantations, and the market is also influenced by factors such as the inventory and production of various oils [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,584.00 yuan/ton, a +1.31% change; the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,516.00 yuan/ton, a -0.21% change; the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,826.00 yuan/ton, a +0.71% change [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the palm oil spot price was 9,510.00 yuan/ton, a +2.04% change; in Tianjin, the first - grade soybean oil spot price was 8,630.00 yuan/ton, a +0.12% change; in Jiangsu, the fourth - grade rapeseed oil spot price was 9,960.00 yuan/ton, a +0.91% change [1] Market Information Aggregation - As of August 18, the national imported soybean port inventory was 6.75865 million tons, a decrease of 82,400 tons from the previous week [2] - From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and production increased by 0.88% month - on - month [2] - As of August 15, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 115,000 tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 104,500 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons from the previous week; the unexecuted contracts were 82,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week [2] - The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (September and November shipments) decreased, while the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed oil (September and November shipments) increased. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed (October and December shipments) decreased, and the C&F prices of US and Brazilian soybeans increased [2] - The import soybean premium quotes also increased [2] Policy Impact - Indonesian President Prabowo launched a large - scale natural resource rectification campaign, confiscating 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm plantations, equivalent to 20% of the country's official total plantation area, and another 5 million hectares are under government review, causing palm oil to strengthen [3]

8月18日，大商所棕榈油期货先涨后跌，主力合约日内涨幅一度涨近3%，后收盘涨幅为1.89%，涨幅有所收窄，但盘中触及9672元/吨的七个月高点。豆油及 菜油跟随棕榈油上行，盘面区间震荡，整体供需变化较为有限。 印尼军方突袭310万公顷种植园 印度排灯节备货点燃出口热潮 据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚8月1-15日棕榈油出口量为537183吨，较上月同期出口的399366吨增加34.5%。其他机构数据同样亮眼，出 口增幅区间达16.5%-21.3%，印度排灯节备货需求成为核心驱动力。 SPPOMA数据显示，2025年8月1-15日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月同期减少1.78%，出油率环比上月同期增加0.51%，产量环比上月同期增加0.88%。中信 建投期货分析认为："在马棕产量及出口数据利多迹象初见，印棕产量因种植园没收面积增加而面临风险，且国内菜油去库预期被加菜籽高额反倾销保证金 强化，豆油亦面临进口成本拾升及累库放缓的背景下，随着三大油脂陆续迎来向上突破，前期压力转化为支撑，上方空间也被打开。" 后市展望 国信期货表示，印尼总统普拉博沃宣布将对非法棕榈种植展开更大规模整治，涉及370万公顷违规 ...