Market Focus - Indonesia has canceled its plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blend ratio to 50% this year, maintaining the current mix of 40% palm oil-based fuel and 60% diesel [1] - Indonesia will raise the export levy on crude palm oil (CPO) from 10% to 12.5% starting March 1, with a similar increase of 2.5 percentage points for refined products [1] - Malaysia has lowered the reference price for crude palm oil for February, resulting in an export tax reduction to 9%, with the reference price set at 3,846.84 ringgit per ton, down from 3,946.17 ringgit in January [1] Soybean Processing Data - The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) is expected to report a soybean crush of 224.809 million bushels for December, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 4.1% and a year-over-year increase of 8.8%, marking the second-highest monthly crush in history [2] - December's soybean oil inventory is projected to reach 1.686 billion pounds, an increase of 11.4% month-over-month and 36.4% year-over-year [2] Palm Oil Export Data - Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1-15 amounted to 727,440 tons, an increase of 18.64% compared to 613,172 tons in the same period last month [2] Market Sentiment - The cancellation of Indonesia's B50 plan represents a significant adjustment in demand-side expectations, establishing a neutral to bearish market tone [4] - Despite strong short-term export performance and policy negotiations among exporting countries, it is challenging to reverse the weakening sentiment caused by long-term changes in consumption growth trends [4]

印度炼油协会(SEA)发布的月度数据显示，12月份印度棕榈油进口量降至8个月低点，因为冬季需求季节性疲软，而且精炼厂增加采购豆油和葵花 籽油等竞争性植物油。 1月15日，棕榈油期货弱势震荡，截至发稿主力合约报8564.00元/吨，大幅下挫2.19%。 【消息面汇总】 印尼棕榈油基金负责人表示：印尼将于3月1日将棕榈油出口专项税上调至12.5%。精炼棕榈油产品的专项税将较当前水平上调2.5个百分点。 印尼副能源部长YuliotTanjung周三表示，印尼已取消今年将强制性生物柴油混合比例提高至50%的计划，维持目前40%棕榈油基燃料和60%柴油的 混合比例。 机构观点 国投安信期货：棕榈油方面我们预计2026年印尼生柴需求偏稳小增的预期，整体原油价格重心不高的背景下，预计生柴需求不及前几年爆发式增 长，但是由于印尼在没收非法种植园，预计会对棕榈油的话语权掌控力度增强，因此我们要谨慎印尼政策影响价格波动的力度增大。由于南美大 豆目前仍然丰产预期，马来西亚棕榈油高库存，总体维持区间震荡思路对待。 瑞达期货（002961）：印尼取消B50计划前期市场有一定的预期，不过还是拖累市场有所走弱，不过提高出口费有利于马来的出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils: Soybean oil and palm oil are rated as "sideways", while rapeseed oil is rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [7]. - Protein meals: Soybean meal is rated as "sideways", and rapeseed meal is rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [9]. - Corn and starch: Rated as "sideways" [11]. - Hogs: Rated as "sideways" [13]. - Natural rubber: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [15]. - Synthetic rubber: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [18]. - Cotton: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [19]. - Sugar: Rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [20]. - Pulp: Rated as "sideways" [21]. - Offset paper: Rated as "sideways" [22]. - Logs: Rated as "sideways" [24]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed performance, with different commodities having their own supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. For example, in the hog market, short - term supply pressure remains, but long - term supply may gradually ease; in the oil market, although there are some policy and supply - demand changes, the overall supply is relatively abundant [14][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Views 3.1.1. Hogs - **Logic**: Short - term supply pressure is small in early January, but some February hogs may be sold in advance in mid - to - late January. Medium - term supply will be excessive until April 2026. Long - term supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand declines after New Year's Day, and the average weight of hogs decreases but is still higher than the same period last year. - **Outlook**: The near - term price is expected to be in a weak sideways range, while the far - term price may rise in the second half of 2026, but currently, the production cut is insufficient, so far - term positions should be cautiously taken on dips [14]. 3.1.2. Oils - **Logic**: Indonesia cancels the B50 biodiesel plan, and raises the export tax on palm oil. The domestic soybean market has active auctions, and the supply of rapeseed oil may change due to trade relations. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil are sideways, and rapeseed oil is sideways with a downward bias. It is recommended to consider buying on dips and palm oil - rapeseed oil spread trading [7]. 3.1.3. Protein Meals - **Logic**: International factors such as the USDA's report, Brazilian soybean production, and the probability of El Niño affect the market. Domestically, soybean auctions are active, and the supply and demand of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by trade and consumption. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal are sideways, and rapeseed meal is sideways with a downward bias [9]. 3.1.4. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The increase in supply due to smooth selling restricts price increases. However, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, the time required for imported grains, and downstream replenishment demand support prices. - **Outlook**: Sideways in the short - term [12]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The market has a bullish atmosphere, mainly driven by macro factors. The supply is seasonally increasing, and the raw material price is firm, but the downstream demand is weak after the price increase. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the short - term [17]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The price trend is bullish, mainly due to the expected improvement in the butadiene market and the possible impact of policies on supply. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the medium - term [19]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **Logic**: The long - term driving factors are the expected "tight balance" in the 2025/26 season and the possible reduction in planting area in 2026. The short - term adjustment space is limited. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the long - term [19]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with most major producers expected to increase production. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a downward bias in the medium - to - long - term [20]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **Logic**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include rising import costs and high downstream paper production. Bearish factors include difficult cost transfer, seasonal demand decline, and sufficient supply. - **Outlook**: Sideways [21]. 3.1.10. Offset Paper - **Logic**: The market is affected by factors such as new warehouse receipts, industry profitability, supply and demand, and downstream consumption. - **Outlook**: There may be pressure in the late period, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.11. Logs - **Logic**: The supply pressure will be marginally relieved in January - February. The price has support due to the inverted price difference, and there are some game points in the 03 contract. - **Outlook**: Sideways within a range [24]. 3.2. Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the monitoring categories including oils and fats, corn and starch, hogs, cotton and cotton yarn, sugar, pulp and offset paper, logs, etc., but specific data details are not provided in the content [25][57][75]. 3.3. Commodity Index - On January 14, 2026, the comprehensive index, characteristic index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend. The agricultural product index also had a certain increase, with a daily increase of 0.20%, a 5 - day increase of 0.44%, a 1 - month increase of 2.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.29% [183][184].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, with the core driver still in the overseas market. The core contradictions mainly include the game between palm oil origin inventory pressure and demand growth, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, the unclear result of China - Canada talks, and the sufficient overall supply of domestic three major oils [1][2]. - Under the suppression of the weak domestic reality, the market maintains a wide - range volatile operation, waiting for the US energy policy to boost the oil market, the destocking progress in Malaysia, and new developments in Indonesia's B50 plan. Due to the lack of trend - driving factors, short - term trading should be treated within a range. Palm oil may remain relatively strong in the sector [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Palm Oil**: In December 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month, and the ending inventory was 3.051 million tons, a 7.58% month - on - month increase. The inventory is at a seven - year high, but it is expected to improve after the production reduction season. Indonesia's B50 plan is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026, supporting long - term demand but with limited short - term benefits [1]. - **US Biodiesel**: The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and the allocation ratio is uncertain. It is expected that the final result will be announced in the first quarter of 2026, and the result is likely to continue the June proposal, which is beneficial to US soybean oil [1]. - **Canola Oil**: The result of China - Canada talks is unclear. The global new - season rapeseed harvest is good, and the arrival of Australian rapeseed eases the supply tension. If China - Canada relations improve, the supply pressure of canola oil will increase. Canadian Prime Minister is expected to visit China from January 14 - 17, 2026 [2]. - **Domestic Oil Supply**: The inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined but the overall supply is still sufficient. Canola oil is in the process of destocking with relatively limited pressure, while soybean oil has the highest inventory and the greatest pressure [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: Short - term rebound trend within the range, and there is still room for palm oil to rise in the medium term [19]. - **Price Range**: The oscillation range of P2605 is [8200 - 8900], Y2605 is [7600 - 8100], and OI2605 is [8600 - 9500] [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Treat P05 and Y05 as single - side rebound trends within the range, pay attention to whether the upper pressure level can be broken. Observe the weakening trend of the canola - palm and canola - soybean spreads for arbitrage [19]. - **Strategy for Basis, Calendar Spread and Hedging Arbitrage**: The current basis should be viewed with a short - term weak oscillation idea. There is no calendar spread strategy for now. The canola - palm and canola - soybean spreads should be treated as weakening [20]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Oil Price Range Forecast**: The price range of soybean oil is 7600 - 8100, canola oil is 8600 - 9500, and palm oil is 8200 - 8800. The current volatility and historical percentile of volatility are also provided [23]. - **Oil Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refineries, and oil mills according to their inventory situations and concerns, including short - selling and long - buying soybean oil futures with corresponding hedging ratios and recommended entry intervals [23]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Palm Oil**: Provides the latest prices, price changes, and basis data of palm oil futures contracts and spot prices, as well as related spreads such as POGO and international soybean - palm spreads [24]. - **Soybean Oil**: Provides the latest prices, price changes, and basis data of soybean oil futures contracts and spot prices, as well as related spreads such as BOHO and domestic soybean - palm spreads [24]. - **Canola Oil**: Provides the latest prices, price changes, and basis data of canola oil futures contracts and spot prices, as well as related spreads such as the domestic soybean - canola spread [25]. - **Oil Calendar and Cross - Variety Spreads**: Provides price and price change data of calendar spreads and cross - variety spreads of the three major oils [25][26]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to be 19.5 - 19.8 million tons, and the inventory is expected to be 2 million tons. The price of crude palm oil is expected to be between 4000 - 4300 ringgit/ton. Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 10, 2026 increased by 17.65% compared with the same period last month [27]. - **Negative Information**: The US corn production in 2025/26 is expected to increase, and the ending inventory will increase. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December 2025 increased by 7.58% month - on - month. As of December 1, 2025, the US soybean inventory increased by 6% year - on - year, and the consumption decreased by 20% year - on - year [28]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil transactions have remained stable and weak, with relatively high soybean oil transactions, sporadic palm oil transactions, and no canola oil transactions for now [29]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Attention Events - **Domestic High - Frequency Weekly Inventory Data** [37]. - **High - Frequency Production and Export Data of Malaysian Palm Oil** [37]. - **Origin Weather Information** [37]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market** - **Single - Side Trend**: The domestic oil market showed some differentiation this week. Soybean oil and palm oil rebounded within the range, while canola oil maintained an overall oscillation. The lack of trend - driving factors and the unclear US biodiesel policy limit the demand expansion of the global oil market. Attention should be paid to US bioenergy policy information and origin destocking progress [33]. - **Capital Movement**: The changes in the positions of key profitable seats in palm oil, soybean oil, and canola oil are relatively small. Some seats slightly increased short positions in palm oil and soybean oil, while canola oil reduced short positions. Foreign - funded seats reduced short positions and increased long positions in soybean oil and canola oil, and slightly reduced long positions in palm oil [34]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The oil market still shows a Back structure. This week, the Back structure of palm oil was relatively steep. The Y5 - 9 spread of soybean oil increased due to the single - side rebound of Y05. The OI5 - 9 spread of canola oil was mainly in consolidation [36]. - **Basis Structure**: The main basis of oils continued to grind at the bottom this week. The basis of soybean and palm oils remained weakly operating, while the basis of canola oil fluctuated more significantly. With the improvement of expectations due to the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China, the main basis of canola oil gradually weakened [44]. - **Spread Structure**: Due to the lack of further information, cross - variety spreads oscillated mainly. As palm oil enters the production reduction season and starts destocking, the canola - palm spread is still expected to weaken [56]. - **Foreign Market** - **Foreign Market Trend**: The foreign market mainly rebounded this week. Palm oil sentiment turned optimistic due to Malaysia's entry into the production reduction season, better - than - expected export boost, and signs of drought. Crude oil strengthened due to geopolitical conflicts, driving US soybean oil to oscillate strongly, and the cost - performance of international palm oil also improved slightly [59]. - **Capital Position**: The net position ratio of managed funds has declined from a high level, and the bullish sentiment has cooled down. Commercial positions such as producers and traders have a relatively high net short position ratio, which limits the further upward space of prices [61]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The POGO spread decreased slightly this week, but the cost of palm oil - based biofuel remains high. The BOHO spread continued to weaken, and the cost of US soybean oil - based biodiesel remained at a recent low level due to sufficient global soybean supply [67]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The origin's quotes are firm, and domestic demand is mainly for rigid needs. The import profit of palm oil remains negative, which limits long - term ship purchases [69]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - In December 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month, and the ending inventory increased by 7.58% month - on - month. The supply pressure is still large, but the better - than - expected export improvement is expected to promote the destocking process. The latest high - frequency data shows that Malaysia's production decreased in January 2026, and exports are optimistically boosted. The inventory inflection point may appear in January [71]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: In the off - season of demand, transactions are difficult to improve. The origin is in the production reduction stage, and the willingness to destock and sell is limited. The import profit in China is inverted, and ship purchases are expected to remain low. Wait for the rebound after the origin's inventory pressure eases [73]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the first quarter, it is the seasonal low point of soybean arrival, and the crushing volume decreases. However, the current inventory pressure is large, and the overall supply is still relatively loose. Pay attention to the possible short - term supply tension caused by the arrival rhythm [73]. - **Canola Oil**: Downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed has arrived, the quantity is limited, and inventory continues to be destocked. The global rapeseed harvest is good, the cost price is weak, and the import of Russian canola oil increases. If China - Canada relations improve, domestic canola oil supply will further increase [73]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Short - term inventory of the three major oils is still relatively high year - on - year, and downstream demand is sluggish. After the Spring Festival stocking, the market boost is limited, and the overall terminal demand for oils remains weak. The market is expected to turn dull after the festival [76].

Core Viewpoint - The January USDA soybean oil report indicates a neutral to bearish outlook, with significant adjustments in global soybean oil production, consumption, imports, exports, and ending stocks, primarily driven by substantial changes in the U.S. and China supply-demand data, reinforcing expectations of "ample supply and accumulating stocks" globally [1][11]. Supply and Demand Analysis by Country United States - The U.S. soybean oil data is significantly bearish, with both production and consumption forecasts lowered, leading to an increase in expected ending stocks. The production forecast for 2025/26 is adjusted down to 13.58 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons, driven by reduced soybean crushing margins [3][2]. - Domestic consumption is forecasted at 13.20 million tons, down 250,000 tons, due to uncertainties in U.S. biodiesel policy, resulting in lower-than-expected growth in renewable diesel consumption [3][2]. Brazil - Brazil's soybean oil supply-demand data shows a dual increase in both production and consumption, with a reduction in stocks, intensifying market tension. The production forecast for 2025/26 is raised to 12.23 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons, reflecting strong expectations for soybean yields and crushing capacity [4]. - Domestic consumption is projected to rise to 10.75 million tons, up 300,000 tons, driven by stronger-than-expected biodiesel blending policies [4]. Argentina - Argentina's soybean oil supply-demand data remains stable with no adjustments, indicating no new disruptive factors in the market [5][6]. China - China's soybean oil data shows a bearish adjustment, with increases in production, exports, and consumption, leading to a rise in ending stocks. The production forecast for 2025/26 is raised by 450,000 tons, supported by high soybean imports and strong crushing capacity [7]. - Exports are expected to increase by 150,000 tons due to competitive domestic prices in the international market [7]. Global Perspective - The global soybean oil supply-demand balance has been adjusted upwards across key indicators, reinforcing a loose supply outlook. The production forecast for 2025/26 is set at 71.13 million tons, an increase of 520,000 tons, with imports and consumption also rising [8][9]. - The increase in global ending stocks is primarily driven by adjustments in China's inventory, which may exert downward pressure on oilseed prices in the short term [9]. Future Outlook - The overall supply-demand landscape remains loose, with limited potential for short-term price rebounds. The domestic soybean oil market is characterized by high supply, high crushing rates, and elevated inventory levels, with weak demand limiting upward price movement [11].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the transformative role of soybean oil futures in stabilizing and enhancing the domestic oil industry over the past two decades, evolving from a cautious financial tool to a critical support for the entire industry [1][2][11]. Industry Development - Since the launch of soybean oil futures in 2006, the domestic soybean oil industry has experienced significant growth, with production reaching 17.294 million tons and demand at 17.45 million tons by 2024, establishing a processing cluster concentrated in coastal ports and major regions [2][11]. - The volatility in soybean oil prices, which fluctuated from 5,200 yuan/ton to 12,280 yuan/ton and then down to 6,710 yuan/ton between 2020 and 2023, has underscored the importance of risk management through futures [3][11]. Risk Management Strategies - Companies have transitioned from limited understanding and cautious use of soybean oil futures to integrating them as a core strategic function for risk management, allowing for proactive profit locking rather than reactive management [3][4]. - The adoption of hedging strategies has been crucial for companies like Jiang Hai Grain and Oil, which utilized both forward and reverse hedging to manage market tensions and optimize inventory costs [4][5]. Trading Innovations - The introduction of basis trading has redefined the ecosystem, allowing companies to convert uncontrollable absolute price risks into relatively manageable basis risks, thus facilitating collaboration across the supply chain [5][6]. - Basis trading has become the mainstream model in soybean oil trade, enabling upstream and downstream companies to lock in prices and manage risks effectively [6][7]. Market Influence and Integration - The soybean oil futures market has become the largest globally, with daily average transactions and positions reaching 445,000 and 844,400 respectively by 2025, reflecting its robust liquidity and market influence [11][12]. - The integration of soybean oil futures with other commodities, such as cottonseed oil, demonstrates its pricing influence extending beyond its immediate market [8][11]. Future Outlook - The ongoing internationalization of soybean oil futures is seen as a significant milestone, enhancing China's position in the global pricing system and providing diverse risk management tools for the global oilseed industry [12][13]. - The evolution of soybean oil futures serves as a model for other futures products, highlighting the importance of aligning with industry needs and enhancing risk management capabilities [12][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Before the release of the USDA report, the prices of the three major oils fluctuated. Currently, domestic oil stocks are continuously decreasing, and the basis of soybean oil remains strong, providing some support for prices. Overall, the futures prices showed little fluctuation [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,724 yuan/ton, a change of +42 yuan or +0.48% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,994 yuan/ton, with no change; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 8,980 yuan/ton, a change of -62 yuan or -0.69% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,600 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan or -0.58%, and the spot basis was P05 - 124 yuan, a change of -92 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,360 yuan/ton, a change of -30 yuan or -0.36%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 366 yuan, a change of -30 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,730 yuan/ton, a change of -60 yuan or -0.61%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 750 yuan, a change of +2 yuan [1] 3.2 Market Information Summary - Palm oil exports from Malaysia from January 1 - 10: According to SGS, the export volume was 325,955 tons, a 16.4% increase compared to the same period last month; according to AmSpec, the export volume was 466,457 tons, a 17.65% increase [2] - Global oilseed production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 690 million tons, an increase of about 0.84%. Soybean production is expected to decrease by 4.61 million tons, with a slowdown in the increase in South American production; rapeseed production is expected to reach 95.27 million tons, an increase of 10.78% [2] - As of January 6, 2026, 4.57 million tons of imported soybeans for January shipments in China have been purchased, with a purchase progress of 100%; 8.33 million tons and 10.08 million tons have been purchased for February and March shipments respectively [2] - From January 1 - 10, 2026, the yield per unit area of palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 20.49% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate remained the same, and the production decreased by 20.49% [2]

Core Insights - The launch of soybean oil futures in 2006 has transformed the domestic oilseed industry in China, evolving from a cautious approach to deep reliance on futures for risk management and operational strategy [1][2][3] - Over the past two decades, soybean oil futures have become a core support for industry development, significantly enhancing supply chain stability and competitiveness [1][5] Industry Evolution - Initially, companies had limited understanding of futures, but as market volatility increased, they began to integrate futures into their risk management strategies, transitioning from passive to proactive management [2][3] - The price of soybean oil has experienced significant fluctuations, from 5,200 CNY/ton to 12,280 CNY/ton and back to 6,710 CNY/ton between 2020 and 2023, highlighting the importance of effective hedging strategies for stable operations [2] Risk Management Strategies - Jianghai Grain and Oil Group has successfully utilized futures for hedging since 2006, employing both forward and reverse hedging strategies to optimize inventory and reduce costs [3][4] - The adoption of basis trading has become mainstream, allowing upstream and downstream companies to manage pricing and risk effectively, fostering collaboration across the supply chain [4][6] Trading Models - Basis trading, which combines futures pricing with basis pricing, has enabled upstream crushing enterprises to lock in sales prices and downstream food processing companies to gain flexible procurement pricing [4][6] - The integration of futures pricing into the trading chain has created a mature system that enhances the industry's ability to respond to price volatility [4][6] Tools and Industry Leadership - The "bean toolbox," which includes soybean oil futures, soybean futures, and soybean meal futures, has empowered collaborative development across the industry [5][6] - Leading companies like COFCO and Yihai Kerry have utilized these tools to stabilize procurement and share risk management practices, contributing to a more resilient industry [6][7] Lessons for Other Futures - The development of soybean oil futures offers a model for other futures products, emphasizing the importance of contract design, market cultivation, and adherence to fair market practices [7] - The core objective for futures products is to remain close to the industry and effectively support enterprises in risk management and price discovery [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that CBOT soybean oil futures prices are experiencing an upward trend, with the current price at 50.03 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.75% increase [1] - On January 9, CBOT soybean oil futures opened at 49.59 cents, reached a high of 50.02 cents, and closed at 49.70 cents, marking a 0.53% increase [2] - The trading volume of national first-grade soybean oil on January 9 was 22,000 tons, which is a 27.91% increase compared to the previous trading day [2] Group 2 - The Dalian Commodity Exchange had 29,426 soybean oil futures warehouse receipts on January 9, an increase of 1,162 receipts from the previous trading day [2] - The Food and Agriculture Organization's vegetable oil price index averaged 164.6 points in December, reflecting a decrease of 0.4 points (0.2%), marking a six-month low [2] - The decline in the index indicates a drop in global prices for soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and sunflower oil, with the decrease significantly outpacing the increase in palm oil prices [2]

棕榈油周报 2025 年 1 月 12 日 出口需求改善 棕榈油区间震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连较节前跌12收于4038林吉特/吨， 跌幅0.3%；棕榈油05合约涨98收于8682元/吨，涨幅 1.14%；豆油05合约涨132收于7994元/吨，涨幅1.68%； 菜油05合约跌45收于9042元/吨，跌幅0.5%；CBOT豆油 主连涨1.11收于49.66美分/磅，涨幅2.29%；ICE油菜籽 活跃合约涨21收于623.4加元/吨，涨幅3.49%。 ⚫ 油脂板块整体震荡运行，菜油较为弱势震荡主要是加 拿大总理即将访华，中加贸易关系有改善预期，市场情 绪带动下菜油走弱。棕榈油区间震荡，市场等待MPOB报 告发布，等待利空兑现；另外，最新高频数据显示产量 减少，出口改善，叠加印尼计划增加出口税补贴B50措 施等 ...