1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The global soybean supply is abundant, and the prices of the three major oils are fluctuating. Brazil's soybean harvest is confirmed, the weather in US soybean - growing areas is favorable with a high good - rate, and the future weather risk is low, leading to a strong overall harvest expectation. The supply side will gradually face pressure [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8708.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan or 0.46% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8012.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.00 yuan or 0.23%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9404.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan or 0.21% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8740.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan or 0.34%, with a spot basis of P09 + 32.00, an increase of 10.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8160.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.00 yuan/ton or 0.25%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 148.00, an increase of 2.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9520.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan or 0.31%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 116.00, a decrease of 10.00 yuan [1] - **Market News**: As of July 13, the EU's 2025/26 soybean imports were 340,597 tons, compared to 495,953 tons in the same period last year; the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 63,393 tons, compared to 116,181 tons in the same period last year. From July 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 621,770 tons (ITS data), a 6.16% decrease from the same period last month, and 574,121 tons (Amspec data), a 5.29% decrease from the same period last month. As of July 15, the national soybean oil port inventory was 932,000 tons, a 24,000 - ton increase from the previous week; as of July 14, the national imported soybean port inventory was 646,277 tons, a 9,908 - ton increase from July 7 [2] Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a neutral stance [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, domestic oil prices fluctuated and consolidated. The palm oil in the producing areas is still in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, but the production in Malaysia decreased slightly in June, slowing down the inventory - building speed and the supply - demand pressure is not significant. The inventory of soybean oil is building up rapidly with average consumption and is expected to continue to increase. Rapeseed oil has a high current inventory, but the future supply decline is relatively clear and will enter the de - stocking cycle. Overall, the domestic oil inventory level still has room to rise. As oils are in the off - season of consumption and the downstream market mainly replenishes goods based on rigid demand, it is expected that the domestic oil futures prices will likely fluctuate and consolidate in the near future [8][28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - This week, oil futures prices fluctuated and consolidated. The soybean oil Y2509 contract rose 0.53% to close at 7,986 yuan/ton, the palm oil P2509 contract rose 2.48% to close at 8,682 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil OI2509 contract fell 1.75% to close at 9,439 yuan/ton [5][27]. - In June, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.692 million tons, exports were 1.2594 million tons, and inventory was 2.03 million tons. Exports were significantly lower than expected, and inventory increased slightly month - on - month. Malaysian palm oil rose 2.78% [6][27]. - For the 2025/26 season, the US soybean production was lowered by 5 million bushels to 4.335 billion bushels, while the soybean yield per acre remained unchanged at 52.5 bushels. US soybean crushing was raised by 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion bushels due to the increased demand for soybean oil in the bio - fuel industry. US soybean exports were lowered by 70 million bushels to 1.745 billion bushels due to domestic demand growth and strong exports from Argentina and Ukraine. The US soybean ending inventory was raised by 15 million bushels to 310 million bushels. US soybeans fell 3.89% this week [7][28]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,190 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at the average level compared with the past 5 years [9]. - As of July 10, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,670 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,580 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [11]. 3.3 Other Data - As of July 4, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 80,000 tons to 1.141 million tons. On July 9, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 524,000 tons [14]. - As of July 10, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,475,410 tons [17]. - As of July 11, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 204 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [18]. - As of July 10, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 32 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at the average level compared with the past 5 years [19]. - As of July 11, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 141 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [21]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - The content in this part is basically the same as the abstract and the core view, emphasizing the price trends of different oils, the production, export, and inventory situations of palm oil in Malaysia, and the adjustments to US soybean production, crushing, exports, and ending inventory. It also reiterates the future trends of domestic oil inventories and price expectations [27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US June non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, higher than market expectations, cooling the expectation of an interest rate cut this year. The US "Big and Beautiful" Act restricts the 45Z tax credit to North - American sourced raw materials, and the EPA's proposed policy boosts the use of vegetable oil in biodiesel, expanding US soybean oil demand. Brazil raised the biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% in June 2025. Indonesia's B40 policy is partially completed, and it plans to implement the B50 plan in early 2026. In the fourth quarter, entering the seasonal off - peak, supply - demand is expected to tighten [3][42]. - India's palm oil imports in June reached 953,000 tons, a 61% month - on - month increase. China's cumulative palm oil imports from January to May were 730,000 tons, far below the five - year average of 1.17 million tons. With the arrival of ships from May - June, inventory increased, but there are fewer purchases after July. US soybean crop ratings are good, domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, soybean oil supply is sufficient, and rapeseed oil is at a high level and in a slow destocking phase [3][42]. - The US June non - farm data exceeded expectations, cooling the interest rate cut expectation. Trade policy uncertainty may exacerbate market volatility. Although Israel and Iran signed a cease - fire agreement, geopolitical risks still exist and may impact oil prices. In the third quarter, during the production - increasing season, the supply - demand double - increase pattern may limit the upside, with overall oscillatory operation. In the fourth quarter, entering the seasonal off - peak, combined with the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy and the implementation of biodiesel support policies in relevant countries, the price center may rise [3][43]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Review of the Oils and Fats Market - In the first half of 2025, palm oil prices shifted from a decline to an oscillatory range, with the overall price center moving down. From January to February, prices first declined due to the non - implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy and high - price suppression of demand, then rose due to post - Spring Festival restocking and India's Ramadan备货 demand. In March, prices oscillated, influenced by both negative and positive factors. In April, US tariff policies and concerns about the economy, along with the entry of the production - increasing season, dragged down prices. From May to June, there was no obvious driving factor, and the market fluctuated. From mid - June, prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts and the US biodiesel policy, then retreated and entered an oscillatory phase [8][9]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. MPOB Report - In May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.77 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase; imports were 69,000 tons; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a 25.62% month - on - month increase; and the ending inventory was 1.99 million tons, a 6.65% month - on - month increase. Reuters' survey predicted that in June 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory would be 1.99 million tons, a 0.24% decrease from May; production would be 1.7 million tons, a 4.04% decrease; and exports would be 1.45 million tons, a 4.16% increase [14]. 3.2.2. Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - In June 2025, according to SPPOMA, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.65%. MPOA estimated a 4.69% decrease in production from June 1 - 30. UOB predicted a 3% - 7% decrease in production by the end of June. Different institutions' data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June increased compared to May [17][18]. 3.2.3. Indonesia's Situation - In April 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.9 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase. Exports were 1.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. Domestic consumption was 2.1 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. The inventory was 3.05 million tons [23]. 3.2.4. India's Vegetable Oil Imports - In May 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase. Palm oil imports were 590,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. In June, palm oil imports reached 953,000 tons, a 61% month - on - month increase [26][28]. 3.2.5. China's Oils and Fats Imports - From January to May 2025, China's cumulative palm oil imports were 730,000 tons, far below the five - year average. Cumulative rapeseed oil imports were 1.025 million tons, and cumulative sunflower oil imports were 228,000 tons. The cumulative imports of the three major oils were 1.983 million tons [35][37]. 3.2.6. Domestic Oils and Fats Inventory - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.22 million tons, an increase from the previous week and the same period last year. Soybean oil inventory was 955,200 tons, palm oil inventory was 537,400 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory was 727,400 tons [39]. 3.3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The report reiterates the factors mentioned in the core viewpoints, including the US economic situation, biodiesel policies in different countries, production and inventory changes in Malaysia and Indonesia, and import situations in India and China. It points out that in the third quarter, the market may oscillate, and in the fourth quarter, the price center may rise [42][43].

油脂日报 | 2025-07-09 棕榈油出口增长，或支撑价格 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8644.00元/吨，环比变化+178元，幅度+2.10%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7946.00 元/吨，环比变化+52.00元，幅度+0.66%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9598.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.52%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8620.00元/吨，环比变化+110.00元，幅度+1.29%，现货基差P09+-24.00，环比变 化-68.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8090.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元/吨，幅度+0.75%，现货基差Y09+144.00， 环比变化+8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9730.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.52%，现货基差 OI09+132.00，环比变化+0.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：上周进口油菜籽开机降至低位，整体上处于几乎停滞水平，菜油产量随之减少，库存高位小 幅回落。中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，截止到2025年第27周末，国内进口压榨菜油库存量为85.9万吨，较上周的 88.4 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index for European routes increased by 6.3% to 2258.04 points as of July 7, 2025 [1] - Global iron ore shipments totaled 29.949 million tons from June 30 to July 6, 2025, a decrease of 3.627 million tons compared to the previous period [1] - A coal mine in Linfen, Shanxi Province resumed production on July 5, with a certified capacity of 900,000 tons, after being offline for 15 days, affecting total coal output by over 40,000 tons [1] Group 2 - In June, domestic soybean crushing volume reached a historical high of 10.11 million tons, with expectations of maintaining high operating rates in July at around 9.5 million tons [1] - As of July 3, 2025, U.S. soybean export inspections amounted to 389,364 tons, corn at 1,491,062 tons, and wheat at 436,628 tons [2] - Brazil's first corn harvest rate reached 97.2% as of July 5, 2025, while the second corn harvest rate was at 27.7% [2] - The U.S. soybean good-to-excellent rating remained at 66%, while corn's good-to-excellent rating improved to 74% [2]

估值偏高，区间震荡 油脂月报 2025/07/04 斯小伟（农产品组） 028-86133280 交易咨询号： Z0022498 sxwei@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F03114441 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 利润库存 02 期现市场 05 成本端 03 供给端 06 需求端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 市场综述：本月三大油脂宽幅震荡为主，前期原油大涨及EPA政策利多带动油脂走强，后期因原油回落、棕榈油增产及估值偏高等因素有所 回落。菜油因菜籽进口成本较高仍高位震荡。路透调查显示，预计马来西亚2025年6月棕榈油库存为199万吨，比5月下降0.24%；产量预计为 170万吨，比5月下降4.04%；出口量预计为145万吨，比5月增长4.16%。马来西亚、印尼棕榈油上半年同比大幅增产趋势压制油脂价格。 国际油脂：EPA的RVO草案预计2026年美国生物燃料豆油需求量在750万吨，菜油需求量在320万吨，这相比于2024年补贴存在时期，同比增加 分别约150、80万吨，考虑到或有最大达10%的SRE，最终进口油脂需求增量如菜油、UCO等生柴原料都有一定幅度的折扣。RVO草案将在7月8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating with a bullish bias [4] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [4] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating [4] - Live Pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [5] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [6] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [9] - Cotton: Oscillating [10] - Sugar: Oscillating [11] - Pulp: Oscillating with a bearish bias [12] - Logs: Oscillating with a bearish bias [13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products. In the short - term, the prices of live pigs and oils and fats may show a bullish trend, while protein meal, corn, and other products will oscillate. In the long - term, the supply of live pigs may face pressure, and the sugar market may decline due to expected supply increases [2][4][5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - Yesterday, the market oscillated and showed differentiation. The market should continue to monitor changes in the US biodiesel policy. Due to technical buying and optimistic demand expectations for soybean oil in the US biofuel industry, US soybeans rose on Wednesday, and domestic oils oscillated and showed differentiation yesterday, with palm oil being relatively strong. In the future, oils may continue to oscillate with a bullish bias, but the sustainability of the upward trend should be noted [4]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - The price rose first and then fell, continuing to oscillate. Internationally, the US "Big and Beautiful" Act was passed, and US soybeans rebounded from the lower limit of the range. Domestically, soybean meal inventories continued to accumulate, and supply pressure may lead to a weakening of spot prices. In the long - term, protein meal may be supported by cost and oscillate in the short - term [4]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - The futures market remained weak, and the spot market stabilized. The current fundamentals of the corn market are affected by factors such as rainfall, changes in supply rhythm, and wheat substitution. The short - term trend is oscillating [4][5]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - Affected by the expected supply - side reform in the industry, the live pig futures market rebounded. In the short - term, pig prices have temporarily changed from weak to strong, but in the long - term, there is still supply pressure [2][5]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - Rubber prices continued to fluctuate with commodities. The current fundamentals of natural rubber are relatively stable, with limited price changes, and the market is waiting for new variables [6][8]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - The weak raw materials dragged the market down. The current fundamentals of synthetic rubber are not significant, and the market mainly follows the fluctuations of natural rubber and overall commodities. The market may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the previous low support [9]. 3.1.7 Cotton - Low inventory supports cotton prices. Although there are expectations of increased production in the new season, the current low inventory structure is expected to be beneficial to cotton prices, and the short - term price may be relatively resistant to decline [10]. 3.1.8 Sugar - The external market continued to weaken, and the domestic - foreign price difference widened. Domestically, there is an expectation of concentrated arrivals of imported sugar, and the sugar price is expected to be under pressure [11]. 3.1.9 Pulp - The futures market continued to rebound, but the spot market did not follow. The supply - demand situation of pulp is weak, and the futures market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [12]. 3.1.10 Logs - The fundamentals changed little, and the market oscillated. The log market is in a traditional off - season, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak on both sides [13]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring of multiple varieties, including the prices of live pigs, oils and fats, cotton, etc., but does not provide detailed analysis in this part [16][47][66][105][118][133][152]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards such as "bullish", "oscillating with a bullish bias", "oscillating", "oscillating with a bearish bias", and "bearish", and the time period is the next 2 - 12 weeks [165].

市场分析 油脂日报 | 2025-07-03 印度棕榈油进口增加，油脂震荡运行 油脂观点 风险 政策变化 中性 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8440.00元/吨，环比变化+104元，幅度+1.25%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8018.00 元/吨，环比变化+46.00元，幅度+0.58%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9619.00元/吨，环比变化+142.00元，幅度+1.50%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8440.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.60%，现货基差P09+0.00，环比变化 -54.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8160.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.25%，现货基差Y09+142.00， 环比变化-26.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9770.00元/吨，环比变化+110.00元，幅度+1.14%，现货基差 OI09+151.00，环比变化-32.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：欧盟委员会（European Commission）数据显示，2024年7月1日至2025年6月29日，欧盟2024/25 年度棕榈油进口量为279万吨，而去年同期为349 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-07-02 USDA面积报告变化较小，油脂延续震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8336.00元/吨，环比变化+6元，幅度+0.07%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7972.00 元/吨，环比变化-12.00元，幅度-0.15%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9477.00元/吨，环比变化+62.00元，幅度+0.66%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8390.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.24%，现货基差P09+54.00，环比变化 -26.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8140.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.25%，现货基差Y09+168.00， 环比变化-8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9660.00元/吨，环比变化+90.00元，幅度+0.94%，现货基差 OI09+183.00，环比变化+28.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年6月1-30日马来西亚棕榈油单产环 比上月同期减少0.23%，出油率环比上月同期减少0.08%，产量环比上月同期减少0.65%。 据Wi ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the supply and demand dynamics for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate, with a general tightening in global vegetable oil supply and demand in the 2025/26 period, leading to potential price support [1] Group 2 - For palm oil, Malaysia's production is projected to be close to last year's levels at 19-19.5 million tons, with a slowdown in inventory accumulation expected until October [1] - Indonesia is anticipated to increase production by 2 million tons to 55 million tons, supported by the B40 policy and export demand, maintaining a tight balance in inventory for the second half of the year [1] - International palm oil prices are expected to experience fluctuations in Q3, with a potential strengthening in Q4 [1] Group 3 - In the soybean oil sector, South American soybean production is expected to increase in the 2024/25 season, alleviating supply pressure after July [1] - The U.S. soybean supply and demand are projected to tighten for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, with weather during critical growth periods posing risks [1] - Domestic soybean oil imports are expected to exceed 10 million tons in Q3, with high operating rates in oil mills leading to strong inventory accumulation expectations [1] Group 4 - For rapeseed oil, a slight increase in global rapeseed production is expected for the 2025/26 season, while export demand is anticipated to decline significantly [1] - The EU is projected to increase production, but prior drought conditions may lead to lower-than-expected yields, while Australian rapeseed production is expected to decrease significantly [1] - Domestic rapeseed imports may decline post-June due to anti-dumping concerns, leading to potential inventory depletion and tighter supply [1] Group 5 - The short-term outlook suggests that with weak crude oil prices and no immediate weather-related speculation for U.S. soybeans, domestic soybean and palm oil inventories are likely to accumulate, making it difficult for oil prices to rise [1] - However, the global vegetable oil supply and demand are expected to tighten in the 2025/26 period, providing strong support for oil prices, with the potential for a seasonal increase in Q4 [1] - Strategy recommendations include monitoring support levels for soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil contracts, with cautious buying near these support levels [1]