来源：市场资讯 二、【每日豆油现货报价】 | | 市场 | 品名 | 等级 | 包装方式 | RJARS | 歌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 治州 | 成品大豆油 | 工标一级 | 膨转 | 8480 | +20 | | | 天津 | 成晶大豆油 | 国标一级 | 股持 | 8460 | +20 | | | 北京 | 成品大豆油 | 国际一级 | 散装 | 8450 | +20 | | | 英国 | 成品大豆油 | 国标一级 | 防装 | 8610 | +20 | | | 安阳 | 成品大豆油 | 国标一级 | 散装 | 8560 | +20 | | | 盘视 | 成品大豆油 | 国际一级 | 10:24 | 8470 | +20 | | | 丹东 | 成品大豆油 | 国际-级 | 成装 | 8430 | +20 | | | 西安 | 成品大豆油 | 王标一级 | 胶种 | 8750 | +20 | | | 成都 | 成品大豆油 | 黑尿一级 | 散装 | 8810 | +30 | | | 重庆 | 成晶大豆油 | 国标一级 | 成装 | ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Grease Weekly Market Observation" [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - From November 24 - 28, the palm oil and soybean oil in the grease sector rebounded, while rapeseed oil fluctuated. Palm oil is expected to have short - term volatile rebounds; soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to run in a short - term volatile manner [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Malaysia's palm oil production increased with a narrowing growth rate and weak exports. From November 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's crude palm oil production increased by 3.24% compared to the same period last month. From November 1 - 25, different institutions showed a decline in palm oil exports compared to the same period last month. SGS estimated a 40.77% decrease, ITS showed an 18.8% decrease, and AmSpec showed a 16.4% decrease [3] - In September 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 3.932 million tons, a 22.32% month - on - month decrease; palm kernel oil production was 366,000 tons, a 23.9% month - on - month decrease. Domestic consumption was 2.053 million tons, a 2.24% month - on - month decrease, and exports were 2.2 million tons, a 36.65% month - on - month sharp decline [4] - The implementation of the EU's Zero Deforestation Act was postponed by one year. Large operators and traders must comply from December 30, 2026, and small and micro - enterprises from June 30, 2027, which boosted palm oil prices [4] - The US biodiesel policy is uncertain. The US government is considering postponing the proposed cut in import biofuel subsidies by one to two years [4] 3.2 Fundamental Observation 3.2.1 Supply - No new information on supply other than production data in the market review section 3.2.2 Demand - As of November 28, the total trading volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 8,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons, with domestic demand mainly for rigid needs. The weekly trading volume of domestic soybean oil was 75,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30,500 tons. The pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 230 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons [7] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 653,500 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease; the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.1788 million tons, a 0.09% week - on - week decrease, still under pressure; the rapeseed oil inventory was 365,200 tons, a 3.13% week - on - week decrease [8] 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - As of November 28, the CIF price of Malaysian - produced palm oil was $1,051 per ton; the import cost was 8,884 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 136 yuan per ton [9] 3.2.5 Purchase and Production - From November 22 - 28, 2025, there were no new palm oil purchases or cancellations in China. As of November 28, the actual soybean crushing volume in oil mills was 220.08 tons, the operating rate was 60.54%, the soybean oil production was 41,815.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,400 tons, and domestic soybean supply was relatively abundant. The production of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 0 tons as of November 28, and the crushing situation in December is to be observed after the arrival of Australian rapeseeds [10] 3.3 Conclusion - Palm oil: Recent increased precipitation and floods in Southeast Asia have raised concerns about production and transportation. The postponement of the European Zero Forest Act has boosted palm oil prices. However, weak exports and potential inventory increases may suppress prices. In China, inventory is slightly down but still at a relatively high level, with short - term volatile rebounds expected. Indonesia plans to lower palm oil export taxes in December [12] - Soybean oil: China continues to purchase US soybeans, and the termination of import licenses for 5 Brazilian companies has supported the cost. Domestically, soybean supply is abundant, oil mill operating rates are high but decreasing, and soybean oil inventory is slightly down but still under pressure. Exports increased significantly in October. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, with short - term volatile operation expected [12] - Rapeseed oil: China maintains anti - dumping policies against Canada, and the relationship between the two countries has not progressed. Domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, oil mills are shut down, rapeseed oil production is 0, and inventory is continuously decreasing. After the arrival of Australian rapeseeds, attention should be paid to customs clearance and crushing, with short - term volatile operation expected [12] 3.4 Spot Prices - As of November 28, the spot price of Zhangjiagang's fourth - grade soybean oil was 8,530 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan per ton; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan per ton; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Nantong was 10,070 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan per ton [14] 3.5 Malaysia's Palm Oil Data (October) - Production: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 2.044 million tons, a 11.02% month - on - month increase. The production in the Malay Peninsula, Sarawak, and Sabah all increased [16] - Inventory: In October, the inventory was 2.46 million tons, a 4.44% month - on - month increase, and it was at a high level compared to the same period last year [17] - Exports: In October, the export volume was 1.6929 million tons, a 18.58% month - on - month increase [20] - Consumption: Malaysia's domestic consumption was 282,400 tons, a 15.58% month - on - month decrease, falling back to the normal range [21] 3.6 India's Palm Oil Import (October) - India imported 602,300 tons of palm oil in October 2025, a 27% month - on - month decrease of 226,600 tons, and it was at a low level compared to the same period last year [24] 3.7 China's Palm Oil Data - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 653,500 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease. In October, the import volume was 220,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons [27] - In October, palm oil consumption was 228,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23,200 tons, and it was at a low level compared to the same period last year [29] - As of November 28, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 171 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week increase (the specific increase amount is missing in the text) [32] 3.8 China's Soybean Oil Data - As of November 28, the oil mill operating rate dropped to 60.54%, the soybean oil production was 41,815.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,384 tons, and it was still at a high level compared to the same period last year [34] - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.1788 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 110 tons, still under pressure [35] - In October, the soybean oil export volume was 70,900 tons, a 36.45% month - on - month increase [36] 3.9 China's Rapeseed Oil Data - As of November 28, the rapeseed inventory dropped to 0 tons, the crushing plant operating rate was 0%, the rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons, and the rapeseed oil production in coastal oil mills was 0 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory was 365,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,800 tons, and the inventory was accelerating its decline [38]

Core Insights - The article highlights the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of the modern grain logistics system established in Jining, Shandong, leveraging the Grand Canal for transportation [1][2][3] Group 1: Logistics Efficiency - The Jining grain logistics park has a dedicated dock that allows for seamless transfer of grain from ships to storage, significantly reducing transportation costs from 170 yuan per ton to 70 yuan, a decrease of 59% [1] - The logistics park can receive 12 to 15 train cars of grain daily, with each car carrying approximately 60 tons, enhancing circulation efficiency by over 30% [1] Group 2: Storage Capacity and Technology - The storage facilities in the park consist of 14 flat warehouses and 10 round silos, with a total capacity of 167,400 tons, complemented by three 1,000-ton edible oil storage tanks [2] - The park employs digital grain storage technology to achieve zero loss and high-quality preservation of grain [2] Group 3: Comprehensive Service Offering - The logistics park provides a full-chain solution for clients, including grain transfer, storage, trade, logistics distribution, quality testing, and information consulting [2] - By 2025, the park aims to achieve a dual milestone of 2 million tons in both grain trade volume and port logistics transfer volume [2] Group 4: Future Development Plans - The park plans to build flour and feed processing plants, leveraging water transport advantages to expand its reach into the Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu regions [3] - The focus is on enhancing the grain industry towards high-value processing, promoting an integrated, intelligent, and green development model [3]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货油脂月报 东南亚遭受洪涝灾害 国内油脂短期或震荡偏强 20251130 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：段福林 从业资格号：F3048935 交易咨询号：Z0015600 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 月度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 豆油方面，巴西进入种植末期，阿根廷已经完成36%的大豆播种率，南美大豆种植顺利推进。 ◆ 棕榈油方面，MPOA数据显示，马来西亚11月1-20日棕榈油产量环比增加3.24%；SPPOMA ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [8] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the core contradiction in the global oil market is focused on the good production in major producing countries and the uncertainty of biodiesel industry policies and trade policies. In the palm oil sector, Indonesia's production in 2025 is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year, and Malaysia's annual production remains stable, with an unexpectedly high inventory in October. For soybean oil, although the global soybean production has a phased decline due to the US, the increase in South American soybean production ensures a bumper global soybean harvest. Rapeseed oil supply is also basically good, with the EU's rapeseed production increase contributing 54.7% of the global increment. China's anti - dumping deposit policy on Canadian rapeseed has significantly reduced China's rapeseed import scale. On the demand side, biodiesel policies show great fluctuations, and Indonesia's B50 expectation, as well as the US biodiesel blending targets and subsidy policies, have a great impact on the demand side [4][96] - The prices of the three major domestic oils show a significant differentiation trend, and the difference in supply - demand patterns and policy regulation directions are the core influencing variables. Rapeseed oil prices show a characteristic of oscillating upward with a rising bottom. The policy of imposing anti - dumping deposits on Canadian rapeseed in August has broken the previous supply - demand balance, leading to a sharp decline in domestic rapeseed inventory and a drop in the oil mill operating rate. Although the inventory was high in the first half of the year, the expectation of supply contraction has become the core pricing logic. Soybean oil prices oscillate between cost support and inventory suppression. After April, the concentrated arrival of South American soybeans has led to high crushing volume and a rise in inventory, and the weakening of the double - festival stocking demand has caused a price correction. The soybean gap in the third and fourth quarters may have less impact than expected. Palm oil prices show a downward oscillating trend. The increase in production in major producing countries and the surge in domestic imports have brought double supply pressure, increasing the domestic inventory. Only the implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy has provided phased support, but the uncertainty of the future B50 policy still poses great price risks [4][5][97] - Future research on the oil market should focus on three core factors. On the supply side, it is necessary to track the weather changes during the sowing period of South American soybeans, the entry of major palm oil producing countries into the seasonal production - reduction cycle, the implementation progress and funding guarantee of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy, and the changes in China - Canada trade policies and the export scale of Australian rapeseed to China. On the demand side, it is necessary to focus on the recovery of domestic catering consumption and the boost of the US biodiesel industry's profit improvement on soybean oil consumption. In terms of inventory, the high inventory pressure of soybean oil needs to be digested through the expansion of the export market and the recovery of terminal consumption, the inventory accumulation pressure of palm oil may gradually ease with the arrival of the seasonal production - reduction period in producing areas, and the low - inventory pattern of rapeseed oil is difficult to change fundamentally in the short term [4][6][98] Summary According to the Directory 2025 Review of the Three Major Oils' Market Conditions - From January to October 2025, the prices of the three major domestic vegetable oils fluctuated greatly and showed significant differentiation. Rapeseed oil prices oscillated upward, with the spot average price in October rising 10.5% compared to January. Soybean oil prices slightly fluctuated between cost and inventory, with the average price in October rising only 2.28% compared to January. Palm oil prices oscillated downward, with the average price in October falling 6.47% compared to January [12] - From January to March, the three major oils were in the initial game stage. Rapeseed oil was balanced between high carry - over inventory and Spring Festival stocking demand. Soybean oil oscillated at the bottom, supported by low soybean arrivals and low crushing volume. Palm oil oscillated downward under policy negatives and production - reduction support [14][16] - From April to July, the market differentiation of the three major oils intensified. Rapeseed oil oscillated at a high level, restricted by high inventory and slow catering recovery. Soybean oil prices fell under the pressure of abundant supply. Palm oil prices continued to decline due to increased production in major producing countries [16][18] - From August to October, policy variables became the key to break the market balance. Rapeseed oil prices rose unilaterally after the anti - dumping deposit policy on Canadian rapeseed. Soybean oil prices first rose due to cost - push and then adjusted due to high inventory. Palm oil prices first rebounded and then fell back, affected by Indonesia's biodiesel policy and the increase in inventory [18] Global Oil Supply Analysis Global Palm Oil Supply - Indonesia and Malaysia account for over 80% of global palm oil production, and their supply - demand patterns dominate the global market. In 2025, Indonesia entered the seasonal production - increase period in March. From June to August, its monthly average production increased by over 30%. The increase in exports and domestic industrial consumption due to biodiesel policies effectively digested the supply pressure. GAPKI estimates that Indonesia's palm oil production will increase by about 10% this year and about 5% next year, but the weather in 2026 may be a variable [20][23] - Malaysia's annual palm oil production fluctuated seasonally, with the total output from January to October increasing slightly by 1.77% year - on - year. Due to the aging of oil palm trees and limited new planting areas, its production growth was restricted. From June to October, exports were lower than expected due to competition from Indonesia, leading to an increase in inventory. In October, the inventory was 30.72% higher than the same period last year [26][27] Global Soybean Supply - Global soybean production increased from 316,072 thousand tons in the 2015/16 season to 427,136 thousand tons in the 2024/25 season, but decreased by 1.3% in the 2025/26 season, mainly due to a 2.3% reduction in harvested area, while the yield per unit area increased by 0.7% [30] - In the US, although the planting area decreased, the yield per unit area was at a high level, and the total output reached 115 million tons. In South America, Brazil's soybean planting progress in the 2025/26 season is smooth, and overseas institutions have a high - yield expectation, with estimates generally in the range of 175 - 180 million tons. Argentina may reduce the soybean planting area, and the estimated output is in the range of 48 - 50 million tons [31][34] - In the 2025/26 season, global soybean ending inventory decreased slightly by 1.1%, and the stock - to - use ratio decreased from 20.6% to 20.0%. The US soybean stock - to - use ratio also decreased, and the ending inventory decreased by 8.5% compared to the 2024/25 season [37] Global Rapeseed Oil Supply - From 2015/16 to 2024/25, global rapeseed supply showed a fluctuating upward trend, and in 2025/26, the total output increased by 7.3% year - on - year. The EU's rapeseed production increase contributed 54.7% of the global increment [44] - In Canada, the yield per unit area in 2025/26 recovered to a high level in the past five years, and the total output increased by 4.0% year - on - year, accounting for 21.7% of the global total output. In the EU, the rapeseed output in 2025/26 increased by 19.3% year - on - year, driven by the improvement of yield per unit area and the expansion of harvested area [48][49] Global Oil Demand Analysis Global Biodiesel Production Trend - Globally, biodiesel production increased continuously from 2021 to 2024 but is expected to decline in 2025. Traditional production areas such as the EU and the US are showing a slowdown or decline in growth, while some countries in Southeast Asia and South America, such as Indonesia and Brazil, are the main driving forces for growth [54][55] US Biodiesel Situation - In the first three quarters of 2025, the profit of the US biodiesel industry was poor, and production decreased significantly. In order to relieve the supply pressure, US soybean oil prices decreased to gain export competitiveness. However, since October, the profit of the biodiesel industry has improved significantly. The US Environmental Protection Agency has adjusted the renewable fuel obligation targets for 2026 and 2027, and future implementation needs to be monitored [58][60][65] Indian Oil Consumption - In the 2024/25 season, India's total oil imports decreased slightly by 0.32% year - on - year, but palm oil imports decreased by 16.82% due to price increases and tariff adjustments. From January to May, India mainly consumed inventory, and from June to September, imports increased significantly as inventory reached a low level. India's oil consumption growth supports the global oil market, and its palm oil consumption and inventory are important factors affecting palm oil prices [66][67][69] Domestic Oil Supply - Demand Analysis Imports - From January to September 2025, China's soybean imports increased by 5.29% year - on - year. The direct import of soybean oil was relatively small, with a 5.12% increase year - on - year. Rapeseed imports decreased by 42.19% year - on - year, while rapeseed oil imports increased by 18.13% year - on - year. Palm oil imports decreased by 19.21% year - on - year, mainly due to the production pattern in major producing countries and the inverted price difference between soybean oil and palm oil [72][74][82] Consumption - As of the 45th week of 2025, China's soybean crushing increased by 5.24% year - on - year. Rapeseed crushing decreased by 47.7% year - on - year, mainly due to policy and supply constraints. Palm oil consumption showed obvious seasonal fluctuations, with overall weak demand and slow inventory digestion [83][86][89] Inventory - As of the 45th week of 2025, China's soybean oil commercial inventory increased by 4.84% year - on - year, reaching a peak due to high crushing volume and weak consumption in summer. Rapeseed oil inventory decreased significantly after the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed. Palm oil inventory first decreased due to supply shortages and then increased due to increased production in major producing countries and weak demand [90][94] Market Outlook - The core contradictions in the 2025 global oil market remain, and the prices of the three major domestic oils will continue to be affected by supply - demand patterns and policies in the future. Future research should focus on supply - side factors such as weather, biodiesel policies, and trade policies, as well as demand - side factors such as domestic catering consumption and US biodiesel industry profits [96][98]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the three major oils stopped falling and rebounded. Foreign capital reduced short positions and increased long positions in the total holdings of the three major oils. Palm oil reduced short positions, and rapeseed oil reduced long positions. According to normal production levels and international demand in previous years, palm oil will enter a rapid de - stocking phase in the first quarter of next year. However, if the palm oil production in Southeast Asia remains high during the off - season of oil demand in the first quarter, the expected de - stocking may reverse. The data of Indonesia's production decline in September has strengthened the de - stocking expectation to some extent [11]. - In the domestic market, the spot basis of oils rose slightly this week, and the total inventory of domestic oils continued to decline. As the soybean crushing volume decreased due to the decline in arrivals, the output of soybean oil decreased, the inventory of rapeseed oil continued to decline due to less imports, and the inventory of palm oil remained stable due to low imports [11]. - The over - expected palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the performance of the palm oil market, and the high - frequency export data has declined. The current situation of palm oil inventory accumulation due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high - yield cannot be sustained, the de - stocking time may come earlier. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips [11][12][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Overview**: The three major oils stopped falling and rebounded this week. Foreign capital adjusted its positions in the three major oils. In September, Indonesia exported 2.2 million tons of palm oil, with production and exports lower than previous periods. Rapeseed oil inventory continued to decline due to shortages of seeds at coastal oil mills, but imports from Russia and Australia filled some gaps. Soybean oil mainly followed the market fluctuations [11]. - **International Oils**: Based on normal production and demand levels, palm oil is expected to de - stock rapidly in the first quarter of next year. However, if the production in Southeast Asia remains high during the off - season, the de - stocking may not occur as expected. The decline in Indonesia's production in September has strengthened the de - stocking expectation [11]. - **Domestic Oils**: The spot basis of domestic oils rose slightly, and the total inventory continued to decline. The decline in soybean arrivals led to a decrease in soybean oil production, and the inventory of rapeseed oil decreased due to less imports, while the palm oil inventory remained stable [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to the significant decline in Indonesia's production in September, it is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips [11][12][13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the basis and basis seasonality of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis between FOB palm oil in Malaysia and its futures contracts, and the basis of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts [18][20][22]. 3. Supply Side - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports**: Charts show the monthly production and export data of Malaysian palm oil from 2021 - 2025 [28]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Production and Exports**: Charts show the monthly production and export data of Indonesian palm oil and palm kernel oil from 2021 - 2025 [29]. - **Supply of Other Oils**: Charts show the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, monthly imports of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [30][32]. - **Weather in Palm - Producing Areas**: Charts show precipitation forecasts in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate [34][35]. 4. Profit and Inventory - **Total Inventory of Three Major Oils**: Charts show the total inventory of domestic three major oils from 2021 - 2025 and the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India [41]. - **Profit and Inventory of Different Oils**: Charts show the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit and inventory of soybean oil, the spot crushing profit and commercial inventory of rapeseed oil, and the palm oil inventory in Malaysia and Indonesia [44][46][47]. 5. Cost Side - **Cost of Palm Oil**: Charts show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [51][53]. - **Cost of Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Charts show the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of rapeseed [55]. 6. Demand Side - **Oil Transactions**: Charts show the cumulative transactions of palm oil and soybean oil in different crop years [58]. - **Biodiesel Profit**: Charts show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, palm oil is expected to be strong due to concerns about production cuts caused by floods in Southeast Asia; rapeseed oil will fluctuate as Australian rapeseeds are arriving but need time for customs clearance and pressing; soybean oil will have narrow - range fluctuations due to ample supply and lack of driving forces [28]. - In the medium - to - long - term, palm oil prices are expected to stabilize and rebound after bottom - hunting, considering the upcoming seasonal production cut in the producing areas and the long - term support of Indonesia's biodiesel policy; the trend of rapeseed oil prices depends on China - Canada trade relations; the soybean - palm oil price spread has been repaired, and the cost center of soybean oil is expected to rise [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From November 21 to 28, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2601) rose from 8550 to 8626, a weekly increase of 0.89%; the spot price fell from 8532 to 8518, a weekly decrease of 0.16% [4]. - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) dropped from 9816 to 9757, a weekly decrease of 0.60%; the spot price decreased from 10167 to 10145, a weekly decrease of 0.21% [4]. - The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2601) increased from 8190 to 8244, a weekly increase of 0.66%; the spot price rose from 8392 to 8412, a weekly increase of 0.24% [4]. 3.2 Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of November 27, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 188 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week), 373 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week), and - 10 yuan/ton (a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively [7]. - As of November 28, 2025, the YP spread was - 382 yuan/ton (a decrease of 22 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of November 21, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 2.45 million tons (an increase of 0.37 million tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 66.71 million tons (an increase of 1.39 million tons from the previous week); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 117.99 million tons (an increase of 3.14 million tons from the previous week); the total inventory of the three major oils was 187.15 million tons (an increase of 4.9 million tons from the previous week) [10]. 3.4 Supply - side of Palm Oil - As of November 28, 2025, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8884 yuan/ton (an increase of 71 yuan/ton from the previous week) [13]. - As of November 28, 2025, the gross profit of 24 - degree palm oil against the market was - 224 yuan/ton (a decrease of 145 yuan/ton from the previous week) [13]. - SPPOMA data showed that the year - on - year increase in Malaysian palm oil production from November 1 - 25, 2025, narrowed to 5.49% [13]. 3.5 Supply - side of Soybean Oil - As of November 21, 2025, the soybean inventory in national ports was 942.50 million tons (a decrease of 50.1 million tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 714.99 million tons (a decrease of 32.72 million tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 59% (a decrease of 3% from the previous week) [16]. - As of November 28, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 533.20 yuan/ton (an increase of 40.15 yuan/ton from the previous week) [16]. 3.6 Supply - side of Rapeseed Oil - As of November 21, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons (a decrease of 0.15 million tons from the previous week) [19]. - As of November 28, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2414.40 yuan/ton (an increase of 39.2 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19]. 3.7 Demand - side - On November 27, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 3700 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 6300 tons, and the POGO spread was 375.99 US dollars/ton (an increase of 30.75 US dollars/ton from the previous week) [25]. - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 805 million tons [25]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis of Three Major Oils - Policy: The Trump administration is considering extending the restrictions on imported raw materials and imported biodiesel. The US restructuring of the Energy Bureau and the abolition of renewable energy - related departments have limited the boost to the US biofuel policy. The market is concerned about the progress of China - Canada trade relations [26]. - Foreign factors: For US soybeans, the November USDA supply - demand report lowered the 2025/26 soybean yield per acre by 0.5 bushels to 53 bushels per acre, and the soybean production was also lowered to 4.253 billion bushels, lower than market expectations. Exports were unexpectedly lowered by 0.5 billion bushels, about 136 million tons. Since Tuesday, China has purchased at least 10 ships of US soybeans. Since late October, China has purchased about 3.5 million tons of US soybeans, about 30% of the 12 - million - ton purchase target [26]. For palm oil, SPPOMA data showed that the Malaysian palm oil production from November 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 5.49% compared with the same period last month. AmSpecAgri data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from November 1 - 25, 2025, decreased by 16.4% compared with the previous month. The increase in production and decline in exports increased the expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysia. Recent floods in Southeast Asia have raised concerns about the impact on Malaysian palm oil production [26]. - Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate decreased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons from the previous week [26]. - Inventory: As of November 14, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas increased to 2.45 million tons; the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 66.71 million tons; the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills increased to 117.99 million tons [26]. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 0.16%, the spot price of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.21%, and the spot price of soybean oil increased by 0.24% [26].

油脂日报 | 2025-11-27 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8440.00元/吨，环比变化+80元，幅度+0.96%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8150.00 元/吨，环比变化+6.00元，幅度+0.07%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9819.00元/吨，环比变化+1.00元，幅度+0.01%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8410.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.48%，现货基差P01+-30.00，环比变化 -40.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8330.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.24%，现货基差Y01+180.00， 环比变化-26.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10140.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元，幅度+0.00%，现货基差 OI01+321.00，环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：农业农村部发布农产品供需形势分析月报，国内市场：受国内油厂开工率提高，油菜籽进口 数量减少、成本增加等因素影响，预计国产油菜籽价格偏强运行。油厂采购花生按质论价，价格上涨。食用植物 油价格总体平稳，涨跌幅有限。国际市场：油菜籽阶段性供应宽松，出口贸易疲软， ...

国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 官 方 网 线 型 www.itf.com.cn 00-8888-598 | | | | | | 油脂数据日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ITG国贸期货 | | | | 国贸期货出品 | | 2025/11/27 | | | | 农产品中心 | | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | 期货从业证号 | 176 投资咨询证号 | | | | 证监会许可【2012】31号_ 30 陈凡生 | | | | | F03117830 | Z0022681 | | | | 24度棕櫚油 2025/11/26 | | 2025/11/25 | 一口价变动 | | | | | | | | | | | | 棕榈油主力现货基差(华南) | | | | | 天津 8480 | | 8560 | -80 | 5000 | | | | | | 8360 张家港 | | 8440 | -80 | 4000 | | | | | | 黄浦 8290 | | 8370 B | -80 | 3000 | ...

期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8360.00元/吨，环比变化-126元，幅度-1.48%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8144.00 元/吨，环比变化-24.00元，幅度-0.29%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9818.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.41%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8370.00元/吨，环比变化-80.00元，幅度-0.95%，现货基差P01+10.00，环比变化 +46.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8350.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元/吨，幅度-0.12%，现货基差Y01+206.00， 环比变化+14.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10140.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.40%，现货基差 OI01+322.00，环比变化+0.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：11月25日，印尼北苏门答腊省官员表示，该省中塔帕努利地区正受到洪灾影响，从23日开始 的持续强降雨导致多个地点发生洪水和山体滑坡。该官员称，灾害已导致4人死亡。根据北苏门答腊灾害行动中心 收集的数据，分布在7个地区的1902个家庭受到洪灾影响。受灾居民正陆续被疏散到安全地点。印尼气象 ...