Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coking coal: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Manganese silicon: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The steel market is under pressure in the short term due to weak demand expectations and a weak macro - atmosphere. Iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly. Coke and coking coal prices are highly volatile in the short term, affected by policy expectations. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon follow their own supply - demand situations and external factors [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market is weakly oscillating. Thread demand shows a slight improvement, while hot - rolled coil demand remains resilient. However, overall demand is weak due to a significant decline in real estate investment and a slowdown in infrastructure and manufacturing growth. The market is under negative feedback pressure, but inventory levels are low. The short - term market is still under pressure, and attention should be paid to changes in the commodity market [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market is oscillating. Global shipments are falling from a high level but are still stronger than last year. Domestic arrivals are decreasing, and port inventories are oscillating. The supply - demand situation is marginally weakening, and iron - water production cuts are becoming a reality. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [3] Coke - Coke prices are falling. Due to upcoming major events, there are expectations of production restrictions in East China. Iron - water production is high, and the seventh round of price increases for coke has been fully implemented. Coke inventories are slightly increasing, and traders' purchasing willingness is decreasing. The price is highly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support at previous lows [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are falling. Coal mine production is decreasing, spot auction transactions are weakening, and terminal inventories are slightly decreasing. Total coking coal inventories are increasing, and production - end inventories are likely to continue to increase in the short term. The price is highly volatile in the short term, affected by policy expectations [6] Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon prices are weakly oscillating. Attention should be paid to the shipping of Australian mines. Demand is high due to high iron - water production. Production is increasing, and inventories are not accumulating. Manganese ore prices have slightly decreased, but there is little room for further decline. In the long term, manganese ore inventories are expected to increase in the second half of the year [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices are weakly oscillating. Iron - water production is slightly decreasing but remains above 240. Export demand is stable at around 30,000 tons. Supply is increasing significantly, and inventories are slightly decreasing. Ferrosilicon prices follow the trend of manganese silicon [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 26, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1160.5, down 3.17%. The market sentiment declined and commodities corrected. In the short - term, there was repeated movement between long and short positions. The inventory at the mine end changed from a decrease to an increase, and the cumulative import growth rate had been declining for 3 consecutive months. The inventory level was moderately high. Technically, the daily K - line was between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it was expected to move in a range [2]. - On August 26, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1681.0, down 2.41%. The mainstream coking enterprises proposed an eighth - round price increase for coke. From January to July 2025, the global crude steel production was 1.0862 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. In terms of fundamentals, the hot metal production was 240.75 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons. The inventory at the coal mine end was no longer under pressure and was transferred downstream, and the total coking coal inventory generally increased. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 23 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line was between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it was expected to move in a range [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1160.50 yuan/ton, down 55.00; the closing price of the J main contract was 1681.00 yuan/ton, down 55.00. The JM futures contract open interest was 908171.00 lots, down 9991.00; the J futures contract open interest was 47638.00 lots, down 1368.00. The net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 114943.00 lots, down 472.00; the net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts was - 5563.00 lots, down 781.00. The JM1 - 9 contract spread was 129.50 yuan/ton, down 24.50; the J1 - 9 contract spread was 71.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00. The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 820.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 948.00 yuan/ton, down 14.00; the price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1775.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot was 150.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Australian imported prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1620.00 yuan/ton, up 120.00; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the JM main contract was 139.50 yuan/ton, up 55.00; the basis of the J main contract was 94.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 25.70 tons, down 0.70; the clean coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants was 294.80 tons, down 2.20. The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.36%, down 0.00; the raw coal output was 38098.70 tons, down 4008.70. The import volume of coal and lignite was 3561.00 tons, up 257.00; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 191.20 tons, up 3.30. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 450.45 tons, up 2.67; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 268.62 tons, down 1.09 [2]. 3.4 National Industry Situation - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 966.41 tons, down 10.47; the total inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises was 64.37 tons, up 1.86. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 812.31 tons, up 6.51; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 609.59 tons, down 0.21. The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 13.07 days, up 0.10; the available days of coke for 247 steel mills were 10.76 days, down 0.07. The import volume of coking coal was 962.30 tons, up 53.11; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 89.00 tons, up 38.00. The output of coking coal was 4064.38 tons, down 5.89; the output of coke was 4185.50 tons, up 15.20. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.42%, up 0.08; the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was 23.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.34%, down 0.23; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.27%, up 0.03. The crude steel output was 7965.82 tons, down 352.58 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On January 25, mainstream coking enterprises proposed an eighth - round price increase for coke, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for dry - quenched coke. According to the oral notice of the environmental protection department in Henan Province, coking enterprises in the province will implement self - restricted production from August 25 to September 3, with a preliminary estimated restriction range of 20 - 35%. Some enterprises have already implemented a 30 - 35% restriction, and other enterprises will gradually follow. Zheng Shanjie, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, chaired a symposium to listen to opinions and suggestions on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment during the 15th Five - Year Plan period. Shanghai optimized and adjusted real estate policies, including unrestricted housing purchases outside the outer ring for eligible resident families, and adult single individuals are subject to the same housing purchase restriction policy as resident families. Eligible non - local resident families are temporarily exempt from property tax for their first - purchased housing [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and a net loss for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 3.226 billion yuan, down 18.23% year-on-year, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 77.6111 million yuan, compared to a net profit of 184 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The decline in investment income is attributed to reduced income from the coking business and decreased profits from the associated company, China Coal Huajin, leading to a 55.35% year-on-year drop in recognized investment income to 601 million yuan [1][2] - The company experienced a narrowing of losses in Q2 2025, with a net profit of -7.352 million yuan, an improvement of 62.91 million yuan compared to the previous quarter [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a coking production of 735,600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.91% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.5%. Coking sales were 761,800 tons, down 1.89% year-on-year but up 4.71% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The average selling price of coke in Q2 2025 was 1,288.57 yuan per ton, down 29.72% year-on-year and 11.19% quarter-on-quarter. The unit procurement cost of coking coal was 1,010.54 yuan per ton, down 12.97% quarter-on-quarter and 35.39% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit from coking was -18.4028 million yuan, showing improvement from -83.1313 million yuan in Q1 2025, indicating ongoing pressure on coking business performance [2] Price Trends of Chemical Products - The report notes a decline in the prices of major chemical products in Q2 2025, including asphalt at 3,197.37 yuan per ton (down 26.99% year-on-year), industrial naphthalene at 4,386.29 yuan per ton (down 12.28% year-on-year), and carbon black at 4,845.45 yuan per ton (down 25.6% year-on-year) [3] Profit Forecast - The forecast for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 97 million yuan, 113 million yuan, and 162 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.04 yuan, 0.04 yuan, and 0.06 yuan. The PE ratios for these years are projected to be 108, 93, and 64 times, respectively [4][8]

Core Insights - The coking industry in China is experiencing a strong willingness to increase prices, with the eighth round of price hikes for coking coal initiated [1] - A decision was made to raise prices for various types of coking coal effective from August 26, with increases of 50 CNY/ton for wet quenching coke, 55 CNY/ton for dry quenching coke, and 75 CNY/ton for top-loaded coke [1] - Environmental regulations in Henan province have led to a voluntary production cut of 20-35% for coking companies from August 25 to September 3, with some companies already implementing cuts of 30-35% [1] - Multiple cities in Shandong and Hebei provinces have followed suit in raising coking coal prices [1] - Despite the price increases, there is resistance from steel mills due to declining orders and profit pressures, indicating a potential conflict in the coking supply chain [1] Price Movement - As of August 26, the main coking coal contract was fluctuating above 1700 CNY, reported at 1731 CNY/ton with a rise of 0.49% [3]

Group 1 - No industry investment rating is provided Group 2 - Overseas interest - rate cut expectations are rising, market sentiment is still fluctuating. Fundamentally, raw material demand remains good for now but shows a tendency of short - term phased decline. Coal and coke prices are more volatile [3] Group 3 Market Logic - On August 25, the price of coking coal fluctuated strongly. As the September 3 parade approaches, the social impact of safety accidents should be noted. Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks led the market to bet on a September rate cut, driving up commodity prices. Some high - priced coal resources at mines had weak sales, and prices were stable. Hebei coke enterprises started the 8th round of price increase [2] Environmental Production Restrictions - Tangshan steel mills received an oral notice of environmental production restrictions. From August 25 to September 3, sintering machines are to be restricted by 30%, and from August 31 to September 3, blast furnaces are to be restricted by 40%. Henan coke enterprises are to implement voluntary production restrictions from August 25 to September 3, with an estimated reduction of 20% - 35% [2] Fundamentals - Last week, Shanxi coal mines continued to increase production slowly, with the daily average output of clean coal reaching 771,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons. After the downstream's centralized inventory replenishment ended, mines started to accumulate inventory again. Short - term coal mine production is expected to continue to resume, and pithead inventory will rise due to weakening demand. Last week, steel mills maintained high - level operations, with the daily average hot metal output remaining above 2.4 million tons. Focus on the implementation of steel mill production restrictions this week [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Shanxi Coking (SH 600740) held its 24th meeting of the 9th board of directors on August 22, 2025, to review the 2025 semi-annual report and its summary [1] - For the year 2024, Shanxi Coking's revenue composition is 99.45% from coking and 0.55% from other businesses [1] - As of the report, Shanxi Coking has a market capitalization of 10.5 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Shanxi Coking Coal (600740.SH) reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - The company achieved an operating income of 3.226 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 18.23% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was -78 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 142.18% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was -88 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 151.04% [1] - The basic earnings per share were -0.0303 yuan [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China and other departments are increasing innovation in forest rights mortgage loan products and services, expanding the scope of mortgaged forest rights, and promoting the quality and quantity of forest rights mortgage loans [2][3] - In Shanghai, the housing purchase limit policy has been further relaxed, allowing eligible residents to purchase an unlimited number of homes outside the outer ring [3] - The Shanghai headquarters of the People's Bank of China has adjusted the pricing mechanism for commercial personal housing loans, eliminating the distinction between first and second homes [4] Group 2 - The General Administration of Customs reported that since the 14th Five-Year Plan, 40 new and expanded open ports have been established, bringing the total to 311, creating a comprehensive port opening layout [2] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, 19 new customs special supervision areas were established, achieving nationwide coverage, with a projected increase of over 30% in import and export value by 2024 compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the market sentiment declined, and the prices of coking coal and coke futures mainly fell. The coking coal 2601 contract and the coke 2601 contract both decreased significantly, breaking the support of the 20 - day moving average, showing a short - term bearish trend [1][3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1162 on Friday last week, with a weekly decline of 5.53%. The mainstream spot market quotes remained stable. The coke 2601 contract closed at 1678.5 on Friday last week, with a weekly decline of 2.95%. The mainstream spot market quotes were mainly stable [3]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Coking Coal - **Supply Side**: The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 85.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The utilization rate of the production capacity of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%. The daily output of clean coal was 257,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons. Due to the continuous disturbances in coal mines, the inventory of raw coal in coking coal mines and clean coal in coal washing plants increased [3]. - **Demand Side**: After continuous price increases, the profits of coking enterprises continued to recover, and the operating rate increased slightly. However, the profit recovery of coking enterprises narrowed, and the willingness to accept high - priced coal continued to decline. Steel mills' blast furnace operating rates remained high, but the procurement of coking and steel enterprises was mainly on - demand. The proportion of auction failures and price - cut transactions increased [4]. - **Overall**: Last week, the supply of coking coal decreased slightly, and the demand remained stable. The coking coal 2601 contract fell significantly, and the short - term trend was bearish [4]. 3.2.2. Coke - **Supply Side**: The utilization rate of the production capacity of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 74.42%, a month - on - month increase of 0.08%. The daily output was 654,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70 tons. The profit per ton of 30 sample coking enterprises was 23 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3 yuan/ton. Due to environmental protection requirements, the supply of coke is expected to be restricted. The spot price of coke at ports remained stable, and the inventory decreased slightly [6]. - **Demand Side**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%. The daily output of hot metal was 2.4075 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 900 tons. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly but remained good. Some steel mills in North China will limit production during the parade, which is expected to suppress the demand for coke [6]. - **Overall**: Last week, the supply and demand of coke remained stable. The coke 2601 contract fell significantly, and the short - term trend was bearish [6]. 3.3. Arbitrage - Last week, the coking coal ratio fell significantly, with an average of 1.44. Currently, it is at a relatively high level in the same period in the past 5 years. Attention should be paid to the range of 1.35 - 1.55 [7]. 3.4. Inventory | Product | Location | Inventory (thousand tons) | Weekly Change (thousand tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | Port | 261.49 | 6 | | | All - sample independent coking plants | 966.41 | - 10.47 | | | 247 sample steel mills | 812.31 | 6.51 | | | Total | 2040.21 | 2.04 | | Coke | Port | 214.12 | - 0.99 | | | All - sample independent coking plants | 64.37 | 1.86 | | | 247 sample steel mills | 609.59 | - 0.21 | | | Total | 888.08 | 0.66 | [8]

Group 1: China Aoyuan - China Aoyuan expects a net loss of no more than RMB 9.5 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to a net profit of approximately RMB 22.1 billion for the same period in 2024, primarily due to increased impairment provisions for available-for-sale properties and expected credit loss provisions [2] - The total revenue for China Aoyuan in 2024 was RMB 9.675 billion, a significant decrease from RMB 27.533 billion in 2023, with a net loss of RMB 2.097 billion, an improvement from a loss of RMB 9.641 billion in 2023 [2] Group 2: Meijin Energy - Meijin Energy reported a net loss of RMB 674 million for the first half of 2025, slightly improved from a loss of RMB 683 million in the same period last year, with total revenue of RMB 8.245 billion, down 6.46% year-on-year [2] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was RMB 844 million, an increase of 135.67% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of -0.15 yuan [2] Group 3: New Port Development - New Port Development's claim to offset a debt of approximately RMB 416 million against Nanjing Construction Group was ruled invalid by the court, but this does not affect the company's entitlement to the trust benefits from the guarantee [3][4] - The company reported a significant net loss of RMB 1.073 billion in 2024, compared to a profit of RMB 341 million in 2023, marking a decline of 414.39% [4] Group 4: Foshan Transportation Investment - Foshan Transportation Investment announced that its subsidiaries have incurred overdue debts totaling approximately RMB 179.9 million, representing 1.37% of the company's net assets as of the end of 2024 [4] - The company reported a net loss of RMB 1.899 billion in 2024, a drastic decline from a profit of RMB 275 million in 2023, reflecting a 791.35% decrease [5] Group 5: Kaisa Group - Kaisa Group anticipates a net loss of no more than RMB 11 billion for the first half of 2025, compared to a net loss of RMB 9 billion in the same period of 2024, primarily due to reduced property deliveries and increased impairment provisions [5][6] - The company is seeking to extend the deadline for its offshore debt restructuring from June 30, 2025, to September 30, 2025, to allow more time to meet restructuring conditions [5]