1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the varieties in the report are rated as "Oscillation", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price lacks obvious driving force and moves towards the path of least resistance. The market is waiting for the meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump. The overall oil price shows an oscillatory trend [1] - For fuel oil, the supply is sufficient, and the subsequent upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the possible fluctuations of oil prices under the unstable geopolitical situation [3] - The asphalt market in August is expected to gradually show a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices oscillating in a range, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [3] - The polyester market is expected to have short - term oscillatory prices for PTA and strong low - level support for ethylene glycol, and attention should be paid to device changes [4] - The short - term rubber price is expected to be strongly oscillatory, while the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention to factors such as production during the peak season and anti - dumping investigations [6] - Methanol is expected to maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range price oscillation [6] - Polyolefin will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand, with limited upward space and narrow - range price oscillation [8] - The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly, with supply remaining high and demand gradually recovering [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fell again. OPEC raised the forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered the forecast for supply growth in the US and other non - OPEC countries. However, OPEC+ production increased in July. The EIA report shows that US oil production will reach a record high in 2025 but may decline in 2026. API data shows changes in US oil inventories. The oil price is oscillatory [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts showed different trends. The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, and the upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic, with an oscillatory trend [3] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to recover with the improvement of weather. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [3] - **Polyester**: On Tuesday, polyester contracts showed different trends. The supply of PTA and ethylene glycol is recovering, and the prices are expected to oscillate, with attention to device changes [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, rubber contracts rose. The short - term rubber price is strongly oscillatory, while the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention [6] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, methanol showed certain price characteristics. The Iranian device load has recovered, and the port inventory has increased, but the downward space is limited, with a near - weak and far - strong structure and narrow - range oscillation [6] - **Polyolefin**: On Tuesday, polyolefin showed certain price and profit characteristics. The supply will remain high after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is expected to increase. The price is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the PVC market price showed different trends in different regions. The supply is high, the demand is recovering, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical varieties on August 12 and 13, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - OPEC raised the forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered the forecast for supply growth in the US and other non - OPEC countries. In July, OPEC+ production increased, and Saudi Arabia's market supply and reported production showed different trends [11] - The EIA report shows that due to the improvement of well productivity, US oil production will reach a record high in 2025, but oil price decline will lead to a decrease in production in 2026 [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][14][15] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [32][33][36] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [47][48][52] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The report shows the spread charts of inter - variety contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, etc. [62][63][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report presents the production profit charts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [71][73][76] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the light - period energy - chemical research team, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, the crude oil and other analysts Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The oil market has a continuous inventory build - up pressure after the peak season, and different energy products have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Investment strategies vary according to the specific conditions of each product [2][3][4][5] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Since the third quarter, global oil inventories have increased by 1.1%, similar to the first and second quarters. The supply - demand surplus in the fourth quarter is expected to double. After the geopolitical risk concerns eased last week, the market focused on the supply - demand bearish expectations. A double - buy strategy for out - of - the - money options of SC2510 is recommended [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals and weak shipping demand. Singapore's fuel oil inventory remains high. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected third - batch quota release and cost weakening. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by sanctions on Russia and Iran [3] Asphalt - In August, the profit difference between coking and asphalt has increased steadily, and refineries' willingness to switch to producing residue may rise. Supply pressure is limited, demand is weak but has recovery expectations, and low inventory supports prices. The BU crack is considered strong recently [4] LPG - The overseas export market is loose, but the recovery of East Asian chemical procurement provides support. Import volume has increased in early August. The refinery gas price has room to decline. The market is in a low - level oscillation after initially fulfilling the bearish expectations [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each individual energy and chemical product, the following ratings are given: - Crude oil: Volatile [1] - Fuel oil: Volatile [2] - Asphalt: Volatile [2] - Polyester: Volatile [2] - PX: Volatile [4] - Rubber: Volatile [4] - Methanol: Volatile [6] - Polyolefins: Volatile [6] - PVC: Volatile and slightly bearish [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude oil**: On Monday, oil prices stopped falling. OPEC+ crude oil production decreased in July. The market is waiting for the meeting between Trump and Putin, which may ease sanctions on Russian oil. However, there is still uncertainty in the market, and oil prices need to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil fell on Monday. Supply is sufficient, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation in summer is weakening. The upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract fell on Monday. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to recover as the weather improves. The asphalt market in August is expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices fluctuating in a range [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of PTA, EG, and PX futures rose on Monday. The supply of PTA and EG is recovering, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the spot prices of PTA and EG will fluctuate in the short term [2][4]. - **PX**: The supply and demand of PX continue to recover, and the PXN is slightly strong. PX prices are expected to follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices [4]. - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber futures rose on Monday. Short - term rubber raw materials are firm, demand expectations are improving, and inventories are stable. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention [4]. - **Methanol**: The load of Iranian methanol plants has recovered, and port inventories have increased rapidly, suppressing near - month prices. However, the main contract will switch to January, and the downward space is limited. Methanol prices are expected to maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure and fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The检修 season is coming to an end, and supply will remain high. With the approaching of the peak demand season, demand is expected to increase. Polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **PVC**: Supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up, and inventories are expected to decline slowly. The basis and monthly spread have widened, and the market's short - selling power may recover. PVC prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: WTI September contract closed up $0.08 to $63.96/barrel, a 0.13% increase; Brent October contract closed up $0.04 to $66.63/barrel, a 0.06% increase; SC2509 closed at 494 yuan/barrel, up 1.5 yuan/barrel, a 0.3% increase. OPEC+ July production decreased to 41.65 million barrels per day. OPEC cut production by 190,000 barrels per day in July, with Saudi Arabia cutting 300,000 barrels per day. Non - OPEC allies increased production by 50,000 barrels per day. Russia increased production by 70,000 barrels per day but was still below the quota [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2509) fell 1.39% to 2,760 yuan/ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2510) fell 0.92% to 3,463 yuan/ton. Supply is sufficient, and the spot premium of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil has fallen to a four - month low [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract (BU2509) fell 0.51% to 3,512 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to recover as the weather improves [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed up 0.47% at 4,706 yuan/ton; EG2509 closed up 0.68% at 4,414 yuan/ton; the main PX contract (509) closed up 0.77% at 6,778 yuan/ton. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Zhejiang and Jiangsu have declined [2]. - **PX**: Supply and demand continue to recover, and prices are expected to follow crude oil price fluctuations [4]. - **Rubber**: The main rubber contracts (RU2601, NR, BR) rose on Monday. Short - term rubber raw materials are firm, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang is 2,382 yuan/ton. Iranian plant load has recovered, and port inventories have increased rapidly [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China拉丝 is 7,020 - 7,150 yuan/ton. The supply will remain high, and demand is expected to increase [6]. - **PVC**: The market price of PVC in East, North, and South China has little change. Supply remains high, and demand is gradually picking up [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on August 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [8]. 3.3 Market News - Trump will meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15 to negotiate an end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. If no peace agreement is reached, sanctions on Moscow may be tightened [10]. - OPEC+ July crude oil production decreased to 41.65 million barrels per day. OPEC cut production by 190,000 barrels per day, and non - OPEC allies increased production by 50,000 barrels per day [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides the historical price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [12][14][16][18][20][21][22]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the historical basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [25][27][31][32][33][37]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the historical spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides the historical spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products [57][62][63][65]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report provides the historical production profit charts of various energy and chemical products [66][67][69]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy and chemicals, with rich experience in futures derivatives market research [72]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry [73]. - **Di Yilin**: An analyst for natural rubber and polyester, good at data analysis [74]. - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [75].

Investment Rating - The report focuses on identifying investment opportunities in industries that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, particularly in coal, steel, and building materials sectors, which are characterized by high levels of internal competition and effective policy execution [7][19]. Core Insights - The report addresses key questions regarding the existence of a clear investment theme in the market, the establishment of a systematic and quantifiable analysis framework for industry selection, and the roadmap and timeline for investments [7]. - The macroeconomic context highlights that industrial profits are under pressure, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) experiencing negative growth for 33 consecutive months as of June 2025, leading to intensified competition within industries [7][14]. - The "anti-involution" policy has emerged as a national agenda aimed at optimizing industry structures and restoring profitability, driven by strong policy guidance [7][19]. - A dual-dimensional analysis model was constructed to evaluate the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on various industries, focusing on execution efficiency and the degree of internal competition [7]. - The investment conclusion emphasizes a focus on supply-side clearing, with coal, steel, and building materials industries expected to achieve rapid supply-side clearing and a V-shaped recovery in profitability due to their characteristics of high internal competition and high execution efficiency [7][19]. Summary by Sections Current Macroeconomic Background - Industrial enterprises are facing profit pressures, with the PPI continuing to contract, indicating a challenging environment for profitability [9][14]. - The report notes a significant correlation between PPI and industrial profits, suggesting that a recovery in prices is essential for profit recovery [14]. Model and Methodology - A quantitative model was developed to screen industries that would benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, focusing on execution efficiency and internal competition levels [7]. Conclusions and Strategies - The report suggests that industries such as coal, steel, and building materials are likely to be the first to experience supply-side clearing and profitability recovery, making them core areas of focus for investment [7][19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Short - term, the market focuses on the cease - fire negotiation between the US and Russia on the Russia - Ukraine issue and India's attitude towards Russian oil sanctions. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to be falsified, and the price is bearish. Brent should pay attention to the support around $65.5 per barrel [1][2] - **Asphalt**: It maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term and more resistant to decline than crude oil. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3450 - 3550 [3][5] - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly reduced, and the demand is mixed. Low - sulfur fuel oil's supply is rising and the demand has no specific driver. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [7] - **PX**: Supply is recovering in August, and the demand side lacks upward drive. The price is expected to be in a range - bound consolidation [7][9] - **PTA**: Supply load has rebounded, and the demand side lacks upward drive. The price is expected to be in a range - bound consolidation [9][10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [12][13] - **Short Fiber**: The processing fee has stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory has slightly increased. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [15][16] - **PR (Bottle Chip)**: The processing fee has rebounded and stabilized. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [18][19] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pure benzene's supply and demand are expected to be relatively balanced, and the price has strong support. Styrene's supply is expected to increase, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. The price of pure benzene is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [19][21] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC's supply and demand are expected to be weak, and short positions should be held. Caustic soda's price is expected to be in a volatile trend, and short positions should be closed at low prices [25][26] - **Plastic and PP**: The overall supply - demand pressure is large, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [27][28] - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing, and the strategy is to short at high prices without chasing the short [29][30] - **Urea**: Supply is abundant, and demand is declining. The strategy is to short at high prices without chasing the short [31] - **Soda Ash**: Supply increases, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [33][34] - **Glass**: After the price increase, the inventory is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [35][37] - **Log**: Supply is in a pulsed fluctuation, and demand improvement is limited. The market is generally stable and slightly strong, but long - term demand needs to be observed [38][40] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Supply is slightly reduced, and demand support is general. The price is generally stable [40][42] - **Pulp**: The inventory shows a marginal destocking trend. The strategy is to hold short positions in the main 11 - contract [42][44] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The strategy is to try to go long in the main 09 - contract [45][47] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: For the RU main 01 - contract, wait and see; for the NR main 10 - contract, try to go long. Consider arbitrage opportunities in RU2511 - NR2511 [47][49] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2509 was stable at $63.88 per barrel, Brent2510 rose $0.16 to $66.59 per barrel, and SC2510 fell to 493 yuan per barrel. The Brent main - secondary spread was $0.61 per barrel [1] - **Related News**: The US and Russia may negotiate to end the Ukraine war, and India has put on hold the plan to purchase US weapons and is open to reducing Russian oil imports [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term feed demand is okay, and the market focuses on geopolitical events. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to be falsified [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: gasoline cracking is weak, diesel cracking is strong; Options: wait and see [2] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3484 points (+0.17%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3394 points (+0.09%) at night [3] - **Related News**: Shandong's mainstream transaction price fell by 5 yuan per ton, and the supply - demand pattern was loose [3] - **Logic Analysis**: July's actual output was higher than expected, and the demand in the south and north was weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [4][5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; Options: wait and see [5] Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 2776 (-0.82%) at night, and LU10 closed at 3464 (-0.89%) at night [5] - **Related News**: Iraq seized an oil tanker, and the domestic low - sulfur production in July decreased [5][6] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur supply pressure is slightly reduced, and low - sulfur supply is rising [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: wait and see [7] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 6726 (-0.33%) on Friday and 6748 (+0.33%) at night [7] - **Related News**: China's PX and PTA operating rates increased [8] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is recovering, and demand lacks upward drive [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [9] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4684 (-0.09%) on Friday and 4692 (+0.17%) at night [9] - **Related News**: China's PTA and polyester operating rates increased [9] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply load has rebounded, and demand lacks upward drive [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [12] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4384 (-0.27%) on Friday and 4391 (+0.16%) at night [12] - **Related News**: China's ethylene glycol operating rate increased [12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [14] Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2510 closed at 6382 (-0.16%) on Friday and 6398 (+0.25%) at night [15] - **Related News**: China's short - fiber operating rate increased, and the inventory increased [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The processing fee has stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory has slightly increased [16] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [17] PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2510 closed at 5898 (-0.34%) on Friday and 5924 (+0.44%) at night [16][18] - **Related News**: The bottle - chip operating rate was flat, and the export price was lowered [18] - **Logic Analysis**: The processing fee has rebounded and stabilized, and the price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [19] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [20] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 6204 (-0.70%) on Friday and 6213 (+0.15%) at night. EB2509 closed at 7235 (-0.84%) on Friday and 7230 (-0.07%) at night [19] - **Related News**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene and their downstream products changed [21] - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene's supply and demand are expected to be balanced, and styrene's supply is expected to increase [21] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: wide - range oscillation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [20][22] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices were weakly volatile, and caustic soda spot prices were stable [22][23] - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased, and the price of caustic soda in Jinling changed [23][24] - **Logic Analysis**: PVC's supply and demand are expected to be weak, and caustic soda's price is expected to be volatile [25][26] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: PVC hold short positions, caustic soda close short positions at low prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [27] Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The prices of LLDPE and PP in different regions changed [27] - **Related News**: The inventory of major producers increased [28] - **Logic Analysis**: New capacity is being put into production, and demand is expected to be weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [28] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [28][29] Methanol - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 2384 (-0.17%) at night [29] - **Related News**: International methanol production increased [29] - **Logic Analysis**: International supply is recovering, and domestic supply is abundant. The strategy is to short at high prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: short at high prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell call options [30][31] Urea - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 1728 (-0.52%) [31] - **Related News**: Northeast urea arrivals decreased [31] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is abundant, demand is declining, and the strategy is to short at high prices [31] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: short at high prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell put options on dips [31][32] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 1249 (-1.4%) on Friday and 1242 (-0.6%) at night [33] - **Related News**: Domestic soda ash inventory increased, and production increased [33][34] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [34][35] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: wait and see [35] Glass - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 1063 (-1.21%) on Friday and 1064 (+0.09%) at night [35] - **Related News**: Glass inventory increased, and production was stable [35][36] - **Logic Analysis**: After the price increase, the inventory is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [36][37] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: wait and see [38] Log - **Market Review**: The 9 - contract price fell to 830.5 yuan per cubic meter [39] - **Related News**: Log prices were stable, and imports decreased [38] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is in a pulsed fluctuation, and demand improvement is limited [39][40] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: wait and see, aggressive investors can short near the previous high; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [40] Offset Printing Paper - **Market Review**: The double - offset paper market was generally stable [40] - **Related News**: Some production lines were shut down for maintenance, and Suzano cut production [40][42] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is slightly reduced, and demand support is general [42] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Pulp - **Market Review**: The SP main 11 - contract rose 0.23% [42] - **Related News**: Jiulong Paper raised prices, and downstream packaging enterprises responded [43][44] - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory shows a marginal destocking trend [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: hold short positions in the main 11 - contract; Arbitrage: wait and see [45] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The BR main 09 - contract rose 1.26% [45] - **Related News**: China's rubber imports increased [46][47] - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory changes vary [47] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: try to go long in the main 09 - contract; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [47] Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: The RU main 01 - contract rose 0.77%, and the NR main 10 - contract rose 0.06% [47][48] - **Related News**: China's rubber imports increased [49] - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory changes vary [49] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: RU main 01 - contract wait and see, NR main 10 - contract try to go long; Arbitrage: consider RU2511 - NR2511; Options: wait and see [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The long - term view on oil prices is bearish, with Brent expected to trade in the range of $66.5 - 68 per barrel in the short term. The overall supply - demand pressure for plastics and PP remains large, and their prices are expected to be weak and volatile. PVC and caustic soda also face supply - demand pressure, and short positions are recommended. For some products like fuel oil, a wait - and - see approach is advised, while for others, different trading strategies such as short - selling at high prices are proposed according to their supply - demand situations [2][22][24] Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2509 contract closed at $64.35, down $0.81 per barrel (-1.24%); Brent2510 contract closed at $66.89, down $0.75 per barrel (-1.11%); SC main contract 2509 fell 4.9 to 504.2 yuan per barrel, and dropped 6.2 to 498 yuan per barrel in the night session. The Brent main - second line spread was $0.61 per barrel [1] - **Related News**: US - Russia negotiations are progressing, and there is uncertainty in geopolitical conflicts. Trump may meet with Putin next week, and the US plans to impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. Trump also announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods and may impose further tariffs on China. Some Fed officials believe in interest rate cuts due to economic and labor market conditions. EIA data shows a decline in US crude and refined product inventories [1][2] - **Logic Analysis**: Long - term bearish view on oil prices due to increasing risk of US economic weakness and sufficient supply elasticity, with an expectation of future supply - demand surplus. Brent is expected to trade in the $66.5 - 68 per barrel range in the short term [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Gasoline crack spread is weak, diesel crack spread is stable; Options: Wait - and - see [3] 2. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3543 points (+0.40%) in the night session, BU2512 closed at 3448 points (+0.207%). On August 6, asphalt spot prices were 3530 - 3970 in Shandong, 3650 - 3800 in East China, and 3520 - 3600 in South China. The benchmark prices of refined products in Shandong changed, with 92 gasoline down 17 to 7727 yuan per ton, 0 diesel down 14 to 6563 yuan per ton, and 3B petroleum coke up 60 to 2880 yuan per ton [3] - **Related News**: Shandong market prices fell 5 yuan per ton due to slow demand release, sufficient supply, and weak market confidence. In the Yangtze River Delta, prices were stable due to rainy weather and falling oil prices. In South China, prices were stable with some trade - offs between weak demand and reduced local supply [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and near - term demand is mediocre. The asphalt market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of demand release in the second half of the year. Oil prices are expected to be weak in the short term and decline in the medium term. Asphalt prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with the main BU contract trading in the 3500 - 3650 range [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; Options: Wait - and - see [5] 3. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2836 (+0.60%) in the night session, LU10 closed at 3558 (+0.65%). In the Singapore paper market, high - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 5.0 to 5.3 dollars per ton, and low - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 4.3 to 3.5 dollars per ton [5] - **Related News**: Nigeria's Dangote refinery plans to shut down its RFCC unit for 15 - day maintenance starting from August 10. On August 6, there were 3 transactions of high - sulfur fuel oil 380 in the Singapore spot window, and no transactions for high - sulfur fuel oil 180 and low - sulfur fuel oil [5][6] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur supply and inventory in Asia remain high, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly reduced. Demand for high - sulfur feedstock is increasing, while seasonal power - generation demand is declining. Low - sulfur supply is increasing, and downstream demand lacks a specific driver [7][8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait - and - see, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - economic disturbances; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see, pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot [8] 4. PX (Para - xylene) - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6794 (+60/+0.89%), and remained unchanged in the night session. The September MOPJ was estimated at $579 per ton CFR. PX prices rose to $844 per ton, up $5 from the previous day. Two September Asian spot transactions were at 848 and 849 respectively. The PXN was $265 per ton, up $6 per ton [8][9] - **Related News**: According to CCF statistics, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were partially strong, with an average sales rate of 4 - 5% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved, with an average sales rate of 71% by 3:00 pm [9] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to return in August as some refineries resume production or increase their loads. Downstream PTA plants are reducing production, and the overall order volume is weak, so PX prices are expected to face pressure [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation [10] 5. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4724 (+42/+0.90%), and dropped 10 to 4714 (-0.21%) in the night session. In the spot market, August - end contracts were traded at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 09 contract, with a price negotiation range of 4650 - 4720. The September - mid contracts were traded at par with the 09 contract. The mainstream spot basis was 09 - 21 [10] - **Related News**: Similar to PX, the sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed certain trends. A South China PTA factory with a total capacity of 235 million tons cut production by 20% [10] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is decreasing as some PTA plants cut production or plan maintenance. Downstream demand lacks upward momentum, so PTA prices are expected to face pressure [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [11][12] 6. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4414 (+15/+0.34%), and rose 17 to 4431 (+0.39%) in the night session. The current spot basis was a premium of 79 - 82 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4493 - 4496 yuan per ton. The September - end futures basis was a premium of 76 - 78 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4490 - 4492 yuan per ton [13] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were as described before. A 90 - million - ton/year MEG plant in Singapore is under maintenance for about 45 days, and a 55 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Saudi Arabia shut down again without a clear restart time [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Port inventory has decreased recently. Supply is expected to increase as some plants restart or postpone their maintenance. The supply - demand balance is expected to weaken as domestic and foreign plants resume production [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [13][14] 7. Short - fiber - **Market Review**: PF2510 main contract closed at 6414 (+32/+0.50%) during the day session, and dropped 14 to 6400 (-0.22%) in the night session. In the spot market, the prices of direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were stable, and downstream customers purchased on - demand [14][15] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed similar trends [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber futures rebounded with raw materials. The processing fee stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [15] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16] 8. PR (Bottle - chip) - **Market Review**: PR2510 main contract closed at 5936 (+24/+0.41%), and dropped 2 to 5934 (-0.03%) in the night session. In the spot market, the polyester bottle - chip market had good transactions, with some plants having large - volume sales. August - October orders were mostly traded at 5870 - 5970 yuan per ton ex - factory [16] - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factories' export quotes were mostly stable, with some slightly increasing [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The bottle - chip futures rose with polyester raw material futures. The processing fee rebounded and stabilized. Most major plants will maintain their production cuts in August, so the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16][17] 9. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6246 (+26/+0.42%) during the day session, and rose 24 to 6270 (+0.38%) in the night session. EB2509 main contract closed at 7285 (+3/+0.04%) during the day session, and rose 29 to 7314 (+0.40%) in the night session. In the spot market, the negotiation range of pure benzene in East China was 6030 - 6060 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous day. The negotiation ranges of styrene in Jiangsu were 7310 - 7380 for spot, 7360 - 7405 for August - end, and 7385 - 7435 for September - end [18] - **Related News**: On August 6, 2025, the port trade inventory of pure benzene in East China was 15.2 million tons, down 1 million tons from July 30 (-6.17%), and up 204% year - on - year. The total inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased by 1.05 million tons to 15.05 million tons. A 30 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Tangshan Xuyang restarted on August 6, and an 80 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Guangdong Jieyang plans to shut down for two - week maintenance starting from September 5. A 67 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Jingbosidarei started producing qualified products on August 6 and is operating at a stable load [18][19] - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene supply is expected to be in a relatively balanced state, with a de - stocking expectation in the third quarter. Styrene supply is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Long pure benzene, short styrene; Options: Sell both call and put options [21] 10. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: In the plastic spot market, LLDPE prices mostly rose slightly. In the PP spot market, the prices in different regions had different changes [21] - **Related News**: On August 6, the PE maintenance ratio was 8.8%, up 0.4 percentage points, and the linear production ratio was 40.3%, down 1.3 percentage points. The PP maintenance ratio was 15.7%, down 0.5 percentage points, and the拉丝 production ratio was 33.9%, up 4 percentage points [21] - **Logic Analysis**: New polyolefin capacities are being put into production, and there is still capacity - expansion pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and there is no obvious factor to improve the supply - demand situation. So, the overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile. Pay attention to new plant start - ups and macro - policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [22] 11. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: In the PVC spot market, prices rose, but the trading was light. In the caustic soda spot market, the prices in different regions were mostly stable [22] - **Related News**: A Shandong alumina factory lowered the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 10 yuan per ton. Jinling's caustic soda prices decreased [24] - **Logic Analysis**: For PVC, the supply is expected to increase as new plants are planned to start production, and the demand is weak, so the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak. For caustic soda, the supply - demand pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be bearish [24][25] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions for both PVC and caustic soda, and pay attention to subsequent policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [25][26] 12. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1271 yuan per ton (+18/1.4%), and dropped 10 to 1261 (-0.8%) in the night session. The SA9 - 1 spread was - 97 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [26] - **Related News**: As of August 4, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 185.18 million tons, up 5.60 million tons (+3.12%) from the previous Thursday. Some plants had production changes [26] - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash futures price strengthened due to the strong coking coal futures price and rising coal prices. The weekly production decreased, and the inventory decreased. The demand is weak, but the price is expected to be supported by cost factors in the second half of the year [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile and bullish; Arbitrage: Consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [27][28] 13. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 09 contract closed at 1083 yuan per ton (+6/0.56%), and dropped 8 to 1075 (-0.74%) in the night session. The 9 - 1 spread was - 148 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [28] - **Related News**: The domestic float - glass market prices were stable or decreased, and the trading was lackluster [28] - **Logic Analysis**: The glass futures price was affected by the strong coking coal futures price. The factory's sales weakened, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to be determined by fundamentals in the second half of the year, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [29][30] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Volatile; Arbitrage: Take profit on the glass 9 - 1 reverse spread, and consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [31] 14. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2395 (-2/-0.08%) after night - session trading. In the spot market, the prices in different regions varied [31] - **Related News**: As of August

Research Views Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the price center of oil continued to decline. The September contract of WTI closed down $1.13 to $65.16 per barrel, a decrease of 1.7%. The October contract of Brent closed down $1.12 to $67.64 per barrel, a decrease of 1.63%. The SC2509 closed at 502.5 yuan per barrel, down 6.6 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 1.3% [1]. - API data showed that last week, US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased, while distillate inventories increased. As of the week ending August 1, crude oil inventories decreased by 4.2 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 860,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels [1]. - Cargo tracking data showed that Russia's seaborne crude oil exports in July dropped to a five - month low. The crude oil shipped from Russian ports in July reached 3.46 million barrels per day, slightly lower than 3.47 million barrels per day in June and the lowest level since March [1]. - Russia's exports to India in July increased by 5% month - on - month to 1.72 million barrels per day. India started to purchase oil from the US and Canada. It is reported that Indian Oil Corporation bought crude oil from the US, Canada, and the Middle East through tender, scheduled to arrive in September [1]. - The market's concern about oversupply is significant, and the price center of oil continues to decline. The view is "volatile and weak" [1]. Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.94% at 2,842 yuan per ton; the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2510 closed down 0.78% at 3,560 yuan per ton [1]. - In August, the supply of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil remains sufficient, and demand may show signs of weakening. The fundamental support from the supply - demand side has declined. The view is "volatile and weak" [1][3]. Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.58% at 3,544 yuan per ton [3]. - In August, some refineries in Shandong have maintenance plans, and asphalt supply is expected to decrease. Refinery inventories are generally controllable, and North China's main refineries may continue low - production in the short term to deliver previous contracts, with limited supply growth. In the southern market, rainfall has decreased, demand is expected to improve, and terminal construction after the rainy season has positive support. The demand for modified asphalt in Shandong's highway projects has been released intensively, driving an increase in terminal capacity utilization [3]. - In the short term, the asphalt market is supported by low supply and inventory, and spot prices are relatively firm. The risk lies in the fluctuation of crude oil prices at the cost end. Short - term long positions can be considered after the oil price stabilizes. The view is "volatile" [3]. Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,682 yuan per ton yesterday, down 0.34%; the spot offer was at a discount of 13 yuan per ton to the 09 contract. EG2509 closed at 4,399 yuan per ton yesterday, up 0.23%, with the basis increasing by 3 yuan per ton to 83 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4,463 yuan per ton. The main PX futures contract 509 closed at 6,734 yuan per ton, down 0.3%. The spot negotiation price was $839 per ton, equivalent to 6,901 yuan per ton in RMB, and the basis widened by 58 yuan per ton to 179 yuan per ton [3]. - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally light, with an average sales estimate of about 30%. A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is preparing to restart, and its 1.5 - million - ton PTA plant is expected to shut down for maintenance soon. A 750,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Malaysia shut down due to an accident recently, with an initial estimated shutdown time of about one week [3]. - OPEC+ continues to over - produce, the cost - end oil price is further pressured, downstream demand has resilience support, and the terminal operating load is at a low level in the off - season. TA prices are under pressure. The view is "volatile and weak" [3][5]. Rubber - On Tuesday, as of the day - session close, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2509 rose 180 yuan per ton to 14,545 yuan per ton, the main NR contract rose 140 yuan per ton to 12,300 yuan per ton, and the main butadiene rubber BR contract rose 120 yuan per ton to 11,515 yuan per ton [5]. - The weather in rubber - producing areas is currently good, and raw material prices have loosened. Downstream demand is stable domestically and weak externally, and exports will decline, while domestic demand has stable growth. Fundamentally, rubber supply increases while demand is stable. With the peak season gradually materializing, there is pressure on the upside of rubber prices. The view is "volatile" [5]. Methanol - On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,373 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2,085 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was $269 - 273 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $331 - 336 per ton. In the downstream, the formaldehyde price in Shandong was 1,045 yuan per ton, the acetic acid price in Jiangsu was 2,280 - 2,350 yuan per ton, and the MTBE price in Shandong was 5,050 yuan per ton [5]. - Overall, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in August, but the expected increase in imports in August is not large, and demand changes little. Although inventory increases month - on - month, it will not increase significantly year - on - year, and the total inventory level is relatively low year - on - year. It is expected that methanol prices will maintain a volatile trend [5]. Polyolefins - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,970 - 7,200 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP production was - 306.75 yuan per ton, the profit of coal - based PP production was 476.87 yuan per ton, the profit of methanol - based PP production was - 751.33 yuan per ton, the profit of propane - dehydrogenation - based PP production was - 229.24 yuan per ton, and the profit of externally - purchased propylene - based PP production was 70.67 yuan per ton. For PE, the price of HDPE film was 7,956 yuan per ton, the price of LDPE film was 9,514 yuan per ton, and the price of LLDPE film was 7,403 yuan per ton. In terms of profit, the profit of oil - based polyethylene production was - 362 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based polyethylene production was 970 yuan per ton [6]. - In August, both supply and demand will start to recover, inventory will gradually transfer from society to downstream, and there are not many fundamental contradictions. Without a significant increase in the cost end, the overall upside space is limited. The view is "volatile" [6]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the price in the East China PVC market fluctuated slightly. The price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material was 4,840 - 4,910 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material was about 5,000 - 5,300 yuan per ton. In the North China PVC market, prices rose and fell. The mainstream reference price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material was about 4,760 - 4,950 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material was 5,060 - 5,210 yuan per ton. In the South China PVC market, prices increased. The mainstream reference price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material was about 4,900 - 4,970 yuan per ton, and the mainstream offer price of ethylene - based material was 5,020 - 5,100 yuan per ton [6]. - In August, the fundamental pressure on PVC has eased, and inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the market will gradually return to fundamental trading after the supply - side reform trading. The main contract will switch to V2501, which is in the off - season of consumption. It is expected that prices will be volatile and weak, and the basis and monthly spread will gradually strengthen [6]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on August 6, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, basis changes, and the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data for products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc [7]. Market News - API data showed that last week, US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased, while distillate inventories increased. As of the week ending August 1, crude oil inventories decreased by 4.2 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 860,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels. Analysts previously expected a decrease of about 600,000 barrels in crude oil inventories, a decrease of about 400,000 barrels in gasoline inventories, and an increase of about 800,000 barrels in distillate inventories [11]. - Cargo tracking data showed that Russia's seaborne crude oil exports in July dropped to a five - month low. The crude oil shipped from Russian ports in July reached 3.46 million barrels per day, slightly lower than 3.47 million barrels per day in June and the lowest level since March. Russia's exports to India in July increased by 5% month - on - month to 1.72 million barrels per day [11]. - Fed's Daly said that the time for interest - rate cuts is approaching, and two interest - rate cuts this year are still an appropriate adjustment. It is also possible that there will not be two interest - rate cuts this year, but it is more likely that more cuts will be needed [11]. - US President Trump said that he will meet with Russia tomorrow. He will "wait and see" regarding tariffs on Russia and "quite possibly" impose a 100% tariff on Russian oil [11]. Chart Analysis Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc [13][15][17]. Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc [27][29][33]. Inter - Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil (01 - 05, 09 - 01), asphalt (main and sub - main contracts), PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), etc [41][43][46]. Inter - Commodity Spreads - The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low - sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc [59][62][65]. Production Profits - The report presents the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, LLDPE production profit, etc [69][70][72]. Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, and Shipping Analyst), Di Yilin (Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst), and Peng Haibo (Methanol/PE/PP/PVC Analyst), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences introduced [74][75][76].

国 内 L U | 日期 | LU 01 | LU 05 | LU 09 | LU 01-05 | LU 05-09 | LU 09-01 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/29 | 3556 | 3510 | 3631 | 46 | -121 | 75 | | 2025/07/30 | 3652 | 3614 | 3692 | 38 | -78 | 40 | | 2025/07/31 | 3628 | 3593 | 3655 | 35 | -62 | 27 | | 2025/08/01 | 3607 | 3553 | 3625 | 54 | - | 18 | | 2025/08/04 | 3523 | 3470 | 3558 | 53 | -88 | 35 | | 变化 | -84 | -83 | -67 | -1 | - | 17 | | | | | 结论观点： 本周新加坡380cst高硫裂解下行，近月月差偏弱运行，历史同期低位，EW价差周五反弹。9-1 0月差小幅反弹至3.75美金/吨，基差低位震荡，FU01内外0。新加坡0. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions and profit - taking on dips, and left - side trading for Russia's geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply - disruption season when oil prices drop significantly [2]. - Methanol is currently over - valued, with supply pressure increasing as enterprise profits are high and production starts to recover, while demand is weak due to port olefin shutdowns and the traditional off - season. High inventory and weakening supply - demand fundamentals put pressure on prices [4]. - Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern. Although the current price is not high and the room for further decline is limited, it is not advisable to be overly bearish. After the cooling of the domestic commodity sentiment, volatility is expected to gradually decline [6]. - For rubber, there are different views from bulls and bears. Bulls focus on potential production cuts in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal off - season demand, and potential under - performance of production cuts. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and trade quickly in the short - term [8][10]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuations. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. After the anti - involution sentiment fades, prices have dropped significantly in the short - term [10]. - For benzene styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upwards [13]. - Polyethylene prices will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short - term, with high production capacity release pressure in August. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to follow crude oil and oscillate higher in July, with the cost side likely to dominate the market under the background of weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season [16]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking. With a neutral valuation, there are short - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [19]. - PTA is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, but due to low inventory levels and the approaching end of the off - season for polyester and terminal production, the negative feedback pressure on PX is small. There are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [20]. - Ethylene glycol's fundamentals are expected to weaken from strong. With high overseas device loads and expected increases in arrivals, there is short - term pressure on valuation decline [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price:** WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.02, or 1.52%, to $66.24; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.84, or 1.21%, to $68.68; INE main crude oil futures fell 13.60 yuan, or 2.58%, to 514.3 yuan [1]. - **Data:** China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a 0.67% increase; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.07 million barrels to 90.85 million barrels, a 1.17% decrease; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.72 million barrels to 102.78 million barrels, a 0.70% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 0.36 million barrels to 193.64 million barrels, a 0.18% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Price:** On August 4, the 09 contract fell 3 yuan/ton to 2390 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 20 [4]. - **Fundamentals:** Affected by overall commodity sentiment, it will gradually return to its own fundamentals. Supply pressure will increase as enterprise profits are high and production starts to recover. Demand is weak due to port olefin shutdowns and the traditional off - season. Port inventory is increasing rapidly, and the basis and inter - month spread are falling [4]. Urea - **Price:** On August 4, the 09 contract rose 24 yuan/ton to 1733 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of + 17 [6]. - **Fundamentals:** Supply is slightly decreasing but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Enterprise profits are poor, and production is expected to increase gradually. Export demand is lower than expected, and domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production for autumn is starting, and enterprise inventories are increasing [6]. Rubber - **Price:** NR and RU rebounded after a decline [8]. - **Fundamentals:** Bulls and bears have different views. Bulls expect production cuts and improved demand, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations and seasonal off - season demand. Tire factory operating rates are decreasing, and natural rubber inventories are increasing [8][9]. - **Operation Suggestion:** Adopt a neutral approach and trade quickly in the short - term. Consider long positions in RU2601 and short positions in RU2509 for opportunistic band trading [10]. PVC - **Price:** The PVC09 contract fell 34 yuan to 4981 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4960 (+40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 121 (- 26) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 137 (- 1) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals:** Cost is stable, overall production capacity utilization is 76.8%, with an increase of 0.05%. Downstream demand is weak, and inventories are increasing. Enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a high level, and valuations are under pressure [10]. Benzene Styrene - **Price:** The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened [12]. - **Fundamentals:** The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has room for upward repair. Cost support exists, supply is increasing, port inventory is decreasing significantly, and demand is oscillating upwards in the off - season [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Price:** The futures price fell [15]. - **Fundamentals:** Market expects an improvement in China's PMI in July, and cost support exists. Spot prices are falling, and inventory pressure is loosening. Demand is weak in the off - season, and there is high production capacity release pressure in August [15]. - **Operation Suggestion:** Hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Price:** The futures price fell [16]. - **Fundamentals:** Shandong refinery profits are rebounding, and production capacity utilization is expected to increase. Demand is weak in the off - season, and cost is likely to dominate the market. There is limited planned production capacity release in August [16]. PX - **Price:** The PX09 contract fell 58 yuan to 6754 yuan, PX CFR fell 8 dollars to 838 dollars, the basis was 142 (- 18) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 26 (+4) yuan [18]. - **Fundamentals:** PX production capacity utilization is high, downstream PTA short - term maintenance is increasing, and overall production capacity utilization is decreasing, but PTA inventory is low, and polyester and terminal production are approaching the end of the off - season. PX is expected to continue de - stocking [18][19]. PTA - **Price:** The PTA09 contract fell 46 yuan to 4698 yuan, the East China spot price fell 60 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 15 (- 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 34 (+4) yuan [20]. - **Fundamentals:** PTA production capacity utilization is decreasing, and new devices are being put into operation. Supply is expected to increase, but due to low inventory levels and the approaching end of the off - season, the negative feedback pressure on PX is small [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Price:** The EG09 contract fell 16 yuan to 4389 yuan, the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 4455 yuan, the basis was 78 (+5) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 28 (+6) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals:** Production capacity utilization is slightly decreasing, overseas device loads are high, and arrivals are expected to increase. Downstream demand is gradually recovering from the off - season, but inventory de - stocking is expected to slow down, and valuations are under pressure [21].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年8月3日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 本周观点总结 01 供应 02 需求 03 库存 04 价格及价差 05 炼厂开工 全球炼厂检修 国内炼厂产量与商品量 国内外燃料油需求数据 全球燃料油现货库存 亚太区域现货FOB价格 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 美国地区燃料油现货价格 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 全球燃料油裂解价差 全球燃料油纸货月差 进出口 06 国内燃料油进出口数据 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：LU、FU弱势延续 | 观点 | 本周燃料油价格先涨后跌，LU前期所表现出的强势开始有所减弱。当下，海内外燃料油市场的供应水平总体以宽松为主，中东出口8月还有 增加的趋势，同时俄罗斯的出口数量也开始慢慢恢复。在现货充盈 ...