Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with attention paid to whether the supply - demand structure improves after the holiday. If southwest regions cut production during the dry season and downstream demand remains stable, the high - level inventory may decline, and the far - month contract valuation may rise. However, price maintenance requires real - data confirmation. Also, the potential price improvement from the "anti - involution" policy remains uncertain [16]. - Polysilicon prices may experience a short - term phased decline. After a long - term policy narrative, the upward drive is insufficient without unexpected news. If the fourth - quarter production rate remains the same, there will be real - end pressure. Attention should be paid to the maintenance of leading enterprises and policy changes [18]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Demand - Polysilicon weekly output was 31,400 tons, a slight increase from the previous week. DMC output was 47,100 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous week. From January to August, the cumulative aluminum alloy output was 12.324 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.163 billion tons or 21.29%. From January to August, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 484,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21,000 tons or 4.54% [14]. Inventory - Industrial silicon inventory was 695,700 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons from the previous week, remaining at a high level. Factory inventory was 260,000 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons; market inventory was 185,000 tons, unchanged; registered warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,700 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons [14]. Price and Cost - As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passed) industrial silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 200 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,900 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 100 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2511) closed at 8,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 345 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygen - passed) had a premium of 340 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 3.66%; the 421 had a discount of 60 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of - 0.67%. The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8,404.17 yuan/ton, 9,387.50 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 9,095.24 yuan/ton in Sichuan, and 9,000 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [15]. Supply - The weekly output of industrial silicon was 95,600 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous week [15]. 2. Spot and Futures Market Industrial Silicon - As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passed) industrial silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 200 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,900 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 100 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2511) closed at 8,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 345 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygen - passed) had a premium of 340 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 3.66%; the 421 had a discount of 60 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of - 0.67% [23]. Polysilicon - As of September 26, 2025, the average price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 52.55 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg. The futures main contract (PS2511) closed at 51,465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,235 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 1,085 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 2.06% [26]. 3. Industrial Silicon Total Output - As of September 26, 2025, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 95,600 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous week. In August 2025, the output was 370,500 tons, an increase of 49,300 tons from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative output decreased by 538,600 tons or 17.44% year - on - year [31]. Production in Main Producing Areas - No specific new data other than the total output was provided in the summary part, but figures for Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu were presented in the graphs [30][33][35]. Production Cost - As of September 26, 2025, the electricity price and silicon - coal price in main producing areas remained stable. The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8,404.17 yuan/ton, 9,387.50 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 9,095.24 yuan/ton in Sichuan, and 9,000 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [45]. Visible Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was 695,700 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons from the previous week, remaining at a high level. Factory inventory was 260,000 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons; market inventory was 185,000 tons, unchanged; registered warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,700 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons [48]. 4. Polysilicon Output - As of September 26, 2025, the weekly output of polysilicon was 31,400 tons, a slight increase from the previous week, close to the same period in 2024. In August, the output was 131,700 tons, an increase of 25,400 tons from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative output was 811,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.67% [53]. Capacity Utilization and Scheduled Production - The capacity utilization rate in August was 45.78%, an increase of 6.55 percentage points from the previous month. SMM predicted that the output in September would be 126,700 tons, with a decrease in the capacity utilization rate [56]. Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 240,900 tons according to Baichuan Yingfu, and 226,000 tons according to SMM [59]. Cost and Profit - As of September 26, 2025, the production cost of polysilicon was 41,543 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 9,057 yuan/ton, indicating relatively good profitability [62]. Downstream: Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - Silicon wafers: The weekly output was 13.78GW, a slight decrease from the previous week. In August, the output was 56.04GW, an increase of 3.29GW from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative output was 429.12GW, a year - on - year decrease of 8.77%. The inventory was 16.23GW, a slight decrease from the previous week, and the predicted output in September was 57.53GW, a slight increase [65][68]. - Battery cells: In August, the output was 58.27GW, an increase of 0.08GW from the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.89%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative output was 446.87GW, a year - on - year increase of 0.96%. The inventory was 8.11GW, an increase from the previous week, and the predicted output in September was 60.04GW, a slight increase [73][76]. - Components: In August, the output was 49.2GW, an increase of 2.1GW from the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 49.09%, an increase of 3.17 percentage points from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative output was 379.6GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.31%. The inventory was 35.2GW, a slight increase from the previous week, and the predicted output in September was 50.3GW, an increase from August [81][84]. 5. Organic Silicon Output - As of September 26, 2025, the DMC output was 47,100 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous week. In August, the output was 219,600 tons, an increase of 13,100 tons from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative output was 1.653 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.58% [91]. Price and Profit - As of September 26, 2025, the average price of organic silicon was 11,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from the previous week. The gross profit of DMC was - 1,921.88 yuan/ton [94]. Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the DMC inventory was 44,500 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from the previous week [98]. 6. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Export Aluminum Alloy - As of September 26, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21,220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week. From January to August, the cumulative output was 12.324 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.163 billion tons or 21.29%. The capacity utilization rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.4%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 56.6% [103][106]. Export - From January to August, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 484,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21,000 tons or 4.54% [109].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Recommend selling high and shorting, with the expected trading range next week between 8,500 - 9,100 yuan/ton [6] - Polysilicon: Recommend waiting and seeing, with the expected trading range next week between 49,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton [6] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon sentiment will decline, and the futures price may decline. Although the supply - demand pattern provides short - term support, the continuous decline of coking coal futures will affect sentiment. The upper limit of the futures price can refer to the hedging position during the dry season in the southwest region [5] - Polysilicon policy expectations have significantly cooled, and the futures price has returned to fundamental analysis. The supply in October is still in surplus, and the industry inventory is difficult to decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent implementation of policies [6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Trends - Industrial silicon: The futures price has fallen from a high, closing at 8,960 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price has increased, with the Xinjiang 99 - silicon quoted at 9,000 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan month - on - month) and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon at 9,200 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan month - on - month) [1] - Polysilicon: The futures price first fell and then rose, closing at 52,700 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price remained stable, with upstream quotes firm and downstream making small - scale replenishments [1] 2. Supply - Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply: The weekly industry inventory has slightly decreased. The overall weekly production has decreased month - on - month, with increased production in Xinjiang, slightly decreased production in Sichuan, and stable production in Yunnan. The futures warehouse receipts have increased by 0.2 tons week - on - week, the social inventory has remained unchanged, and the factory inventory has decreased by 12,000 tons [2] - Demand: The downstream polysilicon and organic silicon sectors support consumption. The short - term weekly production of silicon materials remains high, and the silicon powder tender price has increased. The weekly production of organic silicon has slightly decreased, and the demand for industrial silicon remains at a rigid level. The aluminum alloy sector has rigid orders, and the actual trading volume has not significantly increased. The export market has remained stable [2] Polysilicon - Supply: The short - term weekly production remains high. The estimated production in September is about 127,000 tons, and the planned production in October is about 125,000 tons. The upstream inventory has increased [3] - Demand: The silicon wafer production schedule may gradually decrease. The downstream has replenished inventory for 2 - 3 months, and the next replenishment time may be in mid - October [3][4] 3. Market Outlook Industrial Silicon - The sentiment will decline, and the futures price may test the cost line of small factories in Xinjiang. The upper limit of the futures price can refer to the hedging position during the dry season in the southwest region, which is around 10,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton (corresponding to the SI2512 contract) [5] Polysilicon - The policy expectations have cooled, and the futures price has adjusted downward. When the futures price falls to around 49,000 - 50,000 yuan/ton, non - standard product shipments are good, providing support for the futures price [6]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas. If the raw material output is smooth, the upper edge of the range should adopt a short - selling strategy; if the raw material output is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to continue to run within the range [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 25th, the price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the full - milk basis was - 820 yuan/ton, up 12.20%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 14,850 yuan/ton. The price of cup rubber in the international market increased by 0.10 Thai baht/kg, and the price of glue decreased by 0.50 Thai baht/kg [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, up 50.00% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was 55 yuan/ton, down 26.67%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 40 yuan/ton, up 11.11% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's production was 421,600 tons, up 1.61%; Indonesia's production was 197,500 tons, up 12.09%; India's production was 45,000 tons, down 2.17%; China's production was 101,300 tons, down 1.30%. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.58%, down 0.08%; the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires was 65.72%, up 0.06%. In August, domestic tire production was 10,295,400 tons, up 9.10%, and tire export volume was 63,010,000 pieces, down 5.46%. In July, the total import volume of natural rubber was 474,800 tons, up 2.47%. In August, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 660,000 tons, up 4.76% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 3.07%. The inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao increased, and the outbound rate decreased [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint Currently, logs are in a volatile pattern, with a position volume of only about 12,000 lots, and the market maintains a narrow - range oscillation around 800. As the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" approach, follow - up attention should be paid to whether the shipment volume improves significantly after entering the seasonal peak season. In the current "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern, the strategy suggests seizing opportunities to go long at low prices [2]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26th, the 2511 log contract closed at 807.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 4.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of the benchmark delivery product remained unchanged, with the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Shandong being 750 yuan/cubic meter and that in Jiangsu being 770 yuan/cubic meter [2]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.119, and the import theoretical cost was 799.14 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.11 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day [2]. - **Supply**: In August, the port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 3.87%, and the number of ships decreased by 6.38%. The main port inventory in China decreased by 3.31% week - on - week [2]. - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume decreased by 5% week - on - week, with the average daily outbound volume in Shandong decreasing by 11% and that in Jiangsu increasing by 4% [2]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint Fundamentally, the supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. At the same time, the inventory in the downstream component segment is high, and the price has loosened. It is expected that before the National Day holiday, the polysilicon price will mainly remain range - bound, with a possible fluctuation range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to whether the national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry stockpiling will have specific schedules and implementation details, as well as the actual operating rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and track the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 25th, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 52,550 yuan/ton, up 0.10%; the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50,500 yuan/ton, up 2.02%; the N - type material basis (average price) was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 5.80% [3]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price was 21,365 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 91.80%, and the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract increased by 3.34% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly, the silicon wafer production was 13.78 GW, down 1.01%; the polysilicon production was 31,100 tons, up 0.32%. Monthly, the polysilicon production was 131,700 tons, up 23.31%; the polysilicon import volume was 100 tons, down 9.63%; the polysilicon export volume was 300 tons, up 40.12% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory was 226,000 tons, up 10.78%; the silicon wafer inventory was 16.23 GW, down 3.79%; the polysilicon warehouse receipt was 7,880 lots, up 0.38% [3]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint From a fundamental perspective, from September to October, as the supply of industrial silicon increases, the balance gradually turns to a loose state. The expectation of batch production cuts by silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - dry water period is at the end of October, so the expected loose balance at the supply peak in October is more obvious and narrows again in November. At the same time, the cost increase during the flat - dry water period in the southwest raises the industry's average cost, bringing positive sentiment to the market. In the short term, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the silicon price may turn to oscillation again, with the main price fluctuation range likely to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On September 25th, the price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,550 yuan/ton; the price of N - type granular silicon was 50,500 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the N - type material basis (average price) was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 15 yuan/ton, up 50.00% from the previous day; the spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 390 yuan/ton, up 1.27%; the spread between 2512 - 2601 was 25 yuan/ton, down 28.57% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly, the national industrial silicon production was 385,700 tons, up 14.01%; the production in Xinjiang was 169,700 tons, up 12.91%; the production in Yunnan was 58,100 tons, up 41.19%; the production in Sichuan was 53,700 tons, up 10.72%. The national operating rate was 52.61%, up 3.26% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 11.63%, the inventory in Yunnan increased by 2.91%, and the inventory in Sichuan increased by 3.06%. The social inventory remained unchanged, the contract inventory increased by 0.28%, and the non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.24% [4]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has continued to trade in a narrow range, influenced by news and sentiment. The fundamental oversupply problem persists. Although the manufacturer's inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually shifted to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory has continued to rise. The weekly production remains high, and there is still an oversupply compared to the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid demand pattern. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction in the future, the inventory will be further pressured. The implementation of policies and the load regulation of soda ash plants can be tracked. The overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and short - selling positions established on rallies can be held [5]. - **Glass**: Rumors about a glass enterprise meeting have driven the market sentiment to rise significantly. The news and speculation about "calling for industry price increases" and "anti - involution" should be viewed rationally as they cannot be confirmed for now. The glass market has seen a significant increase in positions and prices in the past two days due to news - driven factors. The sharp rebound in the glass market has led to an increase in spot prices, with some regional enterprises raising their prices by up to 100 yuan/ton, and the spot market trading has become active again, with the production - sales ratio exceeding 100%. However, the intermediate inventory in some regions remains high and shows no obvious signs of reduction. In the long - term, the real estate market is at the bottom of the cycle, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity to solve the oversupply problem. In the short - term, the sentiment - driven market has led to a temporary improvement in the spot market, and its sustainability needs to be tracked. As the National Day approaches, the pre - holiday macro sentiment is positive, and the glass industry does not have the driving force for continuous negative feedback for now, so excessive short - selling is not recommended. After the holiday, the actual implementation of policies in various regions and the inventory replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period need to be tracked [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China increased by 4.31%, 4.88%, 4.35%, and 4.80% respectively. The prices of glass 2505 and glass 2509 increased by 1.99% and 1.54% respectively [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and soda ash 2509 increased by 0.72% and 0.79% respectively [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 2.02%, the weekly production of soda ash decreased by 2.02%, the daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 0.47%, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory decreased by 1.10%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 10.69% [5]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rates of new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area were - 0.09%, 0.05%, - 0.22%, and - 6.55% respectively [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, due to potential disturbances on the supply - side, the industrial silicon futures market has strengthened again. Considering that the factors of sentiment and supply disturbances have not been completely eliminated, the silicon price is expected to remain at a high level in the short term. The supply is expected to increase steadily, while the demand shows different trends in different sectors. The overall low - level inventory - building willingness of downstream industries is insufficient [1]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side disturbances are still fluctuating, and the polysilicon price is in a high - level consolidation state. Given the high raw material inventory of downstream industries, it is difficult to have a concentrated restocking in the short term, and the pressure to further raise the spot price is relatively large, which may suppress the futures market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.09% to 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.39% to 9,055 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production, and the production in the southwest region has increased due to the low - cost electricity in the wet season. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, but some silicon material plants plan to resume production, bringing some incremental demand; an organic silicon plant has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, but the supply pressure has rebounded recently; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt range trading and continue to hold out - of - the - money put options. Continuously monitor industrial policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: N - type dense material rose 0.10% to 51.05 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material rose 0.10% to 52.55 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material remained flat at 50 yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon rose 2.02% to 50.5 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.03% to 51,365 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises are still reducing production, but some may have new capacity put into operation, with an expected slight increase in production to about 130,000 tons in August. On the demand side, the trading volume in the polysilicon market has increased significantly, and the inventory has decreased significantly. However, the terminal demand pressure is large, and the component price increase is restricted, which may lead to reverse price transmission in the industrial chain [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, try to go long on dips with a light position. Continuously monitor the implementation of industrial policies and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1]. Other Information - A project of Hubei Hanshen Material Technology Co., Ltd. with an annual output of 10,000 tons of optical adhesives has been filed for construction, with a total investment of 55 million yuan and planned to start in September [1]. - China will provide 7,000 MW of solar modules to Iran, and the project funds will be borne by the Iranian National Development Fund. If the plan progresses as scheduled, it will help Iran alleviate the power shortage problem [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures market shows relatively resilient performance, while the sentiment in the polysilicon market has cooled down [1][2]. - The trend strength of industrial silicon is neutral (0), and that of polysilicon is slightly bearish (-1) [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of Si2511 is 9,055 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 35 yuan compared to T-1. The trading volume is 318,137 lots, a decrease of 35,630 lots from T-1. The open interest is 259,965 lots, a decrease of 10,966 lots from T-1. For PS2511, the closing price is 51,365 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan from T-1. The trading volume is 184,786 lots, a decrease of 57,230 lots from T-1, and the open interest is 105,474 lots, a decrease of 5,713 lots from T-1 [2]. - **Basis Data**: The spot premium or discount of industrial silicon varies when benchmarked against different products, such as +445 yuan/ton when benchmarked against East China Si5530, -155 yuan/ton against East China Si4210, and -55 yuan/ton against Xinjiang 99 silicon. The spot premium of polysilicon against N-type re - feed is +685 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Data**: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 9,000 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 9,950 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feed is 52,550 yuan/ton. The prices of other related products in the industrial chain, such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, are also provided [2]. - **Profit Data**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 2,186 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) is - 3,131 yuan/ton. The profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 14.3 yuan/kg, and the profit of DMC enterprises is - 946 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.3 million tons, the enterprise inventory is 16.3 million tons, and the industry inventory is 70.6 million tons. The warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon futures is 25.0 million tons, and the manufacturer inventory of polysilicon is 22.6 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Cost Data**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes are provided. For example, the price of silicon ore in Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan is 290 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Starting from January 1, 2027, at least 80% of photovoltaic modules entering the European Economic Area (EEA), Switzerland, and the UK must come from production bases certified by the SSI's Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) and supply - chain traceability standards. By January 1, 2028, this proportion will increase to 100%. Additionally, from April 1, 2026, SSI member enterprises must submit relevant information about their production bases to the secretariat [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information is provided in the documents regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - The glass and soda ash futures markets continued to weaken yesterday. The soda ash market has an oversupply problem, and the inventory has transferred to the mid - downstream. There is no significant increase in downstream demand in the medium term. It is recommended to hold short positions. The glass spot market trading has become dull, and the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the oversupply problem. Track policies and the inventory - building performance of mid - downstream enterprises during the "Golden September and Silver October" [1]. Natural Rubber - Future supply increase expectations have weakened raw material prices, and the cost support has changed from strong to weak. The downstream tire factory's pre - holiday inventory replenishment is basically completed, and the de - stocking rhythm of natural rubber spot inventory has slowed down. Some enterprises may control production flexibly. Pay attention to the impact of typhoon weather on domestic production areas, and the 01 contract range is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow the raw material output in the main production areas during the peak season [3]. Logs - The log futures market fluctuated and closed flat. The inventory has decreased significantly, the demand has declined, and the supply is expected to increase. The market is in a volatile pattern. As the "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, pay attention to whether the shipment volume improves significantly during the seasonal peak season. It is recommended to go long at low prices [5]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market continued to decline. Substantial support policies have not been implemented, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The downstream component inventory is high, and prices are loosening. Follow national policies, the actual production start - up rate of polysilicon enterprises, and the inventory digestion progress of downstream photovoltaic component factories [6]. Industrial Silicon - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the market balance is gradually turning to looseness. The expected supply surplus is more obvious in October and narrows in November. The cost increase in the dry season in the southwest has boosted market sentiment. In the short term, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the price may fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. Glass 2505 decreased by 1.28% to 1312, and Glass 2509 decreased by 0.64% to 1389. The 05 basis increased by 9.50% to - 162. Soda ash prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. Soda ash 2505 decreased by 1.66% to 1361, and Soda ash 2509 decreased by 1.08% to 1423. The 05 basis increased by 27.38% to - 61 [1]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate decreased by 2.02% to 85.53%, and the weekly output decreased by 2.02% to 74.57 tons. The float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.47% to 15.95 tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [1]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory decreased by 1.10% to 6090.80 (unit not clear), the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33% to 175.56 tons, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 10.69% to 61.49 tons. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged at 20.4 [1]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year change of new construction area was - 0.09% (improved from - 0.19%), the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%, the completion area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [1]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan Guofu hand - made rubber remained unchanged at 14,700 yuan/ton, the full - latex basis increased by 9.84% to - 855 yuan/ton, the Thai standard mixed rubber price decreased by 0.34% to 14,800 yuan/ton, and the non - standard price difference increased by 5.23% to - 725 yuan/ton [3]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 150.00% to 15 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 14.29% to 40 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 44.44% to - 25 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, Thailand's production increased by 1.61% to 421.60 tons, Indonesia's production increased by 12.09% to 197.50 tons, India's production decreased by 2.17% to 45.00 tons, and China's production decreased by 1.27% to 101.30 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires increased by 0.20% to 73.66%, and the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires increased by 0.07% to 65.66%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 9.10% to 10,295.40 million pieces, and tire exports decreased by 5.46% to 6,301.00 [3]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95% to 286,639 (unit not clear), the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 3.07% to 44,553, the dry - rubber bonded warehouse inbound rate in Qingdao increased to 2.47, and the outbound rate decreased to 6.44 [3]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log 2511 remained unchanged at 805 yuan/cubic meter, Log 2601 increased by 0.06% to 819 yuan/cubic meter, and Log 2603 decreased by 0.18% to 823.5 yuan/cubic meter. The prices of main benchmark delivery spot goods remained unchanged [5]. Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.115, and the import theoretical cost increased by 0.10 to 797.53 [5]. Supply - The port shipping volume decreased by 3.87% to 166.6 million cubic meters, the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38% to 44. The inventory in China decreased by 3.31% to 292.00 million cubic meters, and the inventory in Shandong decreased by 3.50% to 176.60 million cubic meters [5]. Demand - The average daily outbound volume in China decreased by 5% to 5.98 million cubic meters, and the average daily outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 11% to 3.06 million cubic meters [5]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type multi - feedstock remained unchanged at 52,650 yuan/ton, the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,500 yuan/ton, and the N - type material basis increased by 43.98% to 2,390 yuan/ton [6]. Futures Prices and Month - to - Month Spreads - The main contract decreased by 1.43% to 50,260, the current - month - to - first - continuous spread decreased by 127.27% to - 45, and the first - continuous - to - second - continuous spread increased by 5.99% to - 2355 [6]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: The silicon wafer production increased by 0.29% to 13.92 GW, and the polysilicon production decreased by 0.64% to 3.10 tons. Monthly: The polysilicon production increased by 23.31% to 13.17 tons, the polysilicon import volume decreased by 9.63% to 0.10 tons, and the polysilicon export volume increased by 40.12% to 0.30 tons [6]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85% to 20.40 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% to 16.87 GW [6]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main - Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8500 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 4.55% to 575, the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9700 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 50.00% to - 25 [7]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 75.00% to - 35, the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 1.27% to - 400, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 133.33% to 35 [7]. Fundamental Data - Monthly: The national industrial silicon production increased by 14.01% to 38.57 tons, the Xinjiang industrial silicon production increased by 12.91% to 16.97 tons, and the Yunnan industrial silicon production increased by 41.19% to 5.81 tons. The national operating rate increased by 6.20% to 55.87%, the Xinjiang operating rate increased by 15.25% to 60.61%, and the Yunnan operating rate increased by 44.09% to 47.39% [7]. Inventory Changes - The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.07% to 12.04 tons, the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased by 5.45% to 3.10 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.74% to 54.30 tons [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,790 - 9,060 for the 2511 contract [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply-side production scheduling continues to decrease, while the demand-side shows continuous recovery in silicon wafer, battery cell, and component production. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 49,305 - 51,215 for the 2511 contract [8]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production; the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 92,000 tons, a 2.22% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 3,050 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On September 23, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 275 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 543,000 tons, a 0.74% increase from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 174,950 tons, a 0.57% increase; the main port inventory was 120,000 tons, an 0.84% increase [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the output of polysilicon was 31,000 tons, a 0.64% decrease from the previous week. The production scheduling for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the output of silicon wafers was 13.92 GW, a 0.28% increase from the previous week; the inventory was 168,700 tons, a 1.93% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On September 23, the price of N - type dense material was 51,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,390 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 204,000 tons, a 6.84% decrease from the previous week, and it is at a historical low [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position has increased [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Price: The prices of various industrial silicon contracts and spot prices have shown different degrees of decline or stability [14]. - Inventory: Different types of inventories, including social, sample enterprise, and main port inventories, have increased to varying degrees [14]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The weekly production of sample enterprises has increased, and the capacity utilization rates in different regions have also changed [14]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Price: The prices of polysilicon contracts have decreased, while the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have remained stable [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of silicon wafers and photovoltaic cells has increased, while the domestic and European inventories of components have decreased [16]. - Production: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has shown different trends of increase or stability [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand sides have no significant changes. The production has slowed down after weeks of growth but remains at a relatively high level. Downstream demand from polysilicon and organic silicon can support it in the short - term. The inventory is high with limited marginal reduction. The relative valuation is low compared to polysilicon, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with subsequent focus on supply - demand improvement and policy changes [16]. - For polysilicon, the price continues to oscillate. The market focuses on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer. The inventory reduction space is limited, and the price may experience a phased decline before the policy is implemented. Attention should be paid to position and risk control [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: Polysilicon weekly output is 31,300 tons, DMC output is 48,600 tons (down 300 tons week - on - week), 1 - 8 month aluminum alloy cumulative output is 12.324 billion tons (up 2.163 billion tons or 21.29% year - on - year), and 1 - 7 month industrial silicon cumulative net export is 409,400 tons (up 5,400 tons or 1.33% year - on - year) [14]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon inventory is 692,000 tons (down 2,400 tons week - on - week), including factory inventory of 257,600 tons (down 3,800 tons), market inventory of 185,000 tons (up 2,000 tons), and registered warehouse receipt inventory of 249,400 tons (down 600 tons) [14][15]. - **Price**: As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China is 9,100 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week), 421 is 9,600 yuan/ton (equivalent to a futures price of 8,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the futures main contract (SI2511) closes at 9,305 yuan/ton (up 560 yuan/ton) [15]. - **Cost**: The average production cost in Xinjiang is 8,458.33 yuan/ton, Yunnan is 9,393.75 yuan/ton, Sichuan is 9,090.48 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia is 9,000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of industrial silicon is 94,700 tons (down 800 tons week - on - week) [15]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China is 9,100 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week), 421 is 9,600 yuan/ton (equivalent to a futures price of 8,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the futures main contract (SI2511) closes at 9,305 yuan/ton (up 560 yuan/ton) [23]. - **Polysilicon**: As of September 19, 2025, the average price of SMM - statistical N - type polysilicon re -投料 is 52.65 yuan/kg (up 1.1 yuan/kg week - on - week), N - type dense material is 51.15 yuan/kg (up 1.1 yuan/kg week - on - week), and the futures main contract (PS2511) closes at 52,700 yuan/ton (down 910 yuan/ton). The basis of the main contract is - 50 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of - 0.09% [26]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - **Total Output**: As of September 19, 2025, the weekly output is 94,700 tons (down 800 tons week - on - week). In August 2025, the output is 370,500 tons (up 49,300 tons month - on - month), and the cumulative output from January to August is down 538,600 tons or 17.44% year - on - year [31]. - **Production in Main Producing Areas**: No specific quantitative changes in the main producing areas are mentioned other than the overall production [30][33][35]. - **Production Cost**: As of September 19, 2025, the electricity price and silica price in the main producing areas are flat week - on - week. The average production cost in Xinjiang is 8,458.33 yuan/ton, Yunnan is 9,393.75 yuan/ton, Sichuan is 9,090.48 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia is 9,000 yuan/ton [43][46]. - **Visible Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory is 692,000 tons (down 2,400 tons week - on - week), including factory inventory of 257,600 tons (down 3,800 tons), market inventory of 185,000 tons (up 2,000 tons), and registered warehouse receipt inventory of 249,400 tons (down 600 tons) [49]. 3.4 Polysilicon - **Output**: As of September 19, 2025, the weekly output is 31,300 tons (basically flat week - on - week), close to the same period in 2024. In August, the output is 131,700 tons (up 25,400 tons month - on - month), and the cumulative output from January to August is 811,100 tons (down 36.67% year - on - year) [54]. - **Operating Rate and Scheduling**: In August, the operating rate is 45.78% (up 6.55 percentage points month - on - month). SMM predicts the output in September to be 126,700 tons, with a decreasing operating rate [57]. - **Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, the factory inventory is 242,100 tons (Bai Chuan Ying Fu's statistics), and the SMM - statistical inventory is 204,000 tons [60]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 19, 2025, the production cost is 41,405.50 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is 9,194.50 yuan/ton [63]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The weekly output is 13.92GW (slightly up week - on - week), the output in August is 56.04GW (up 3.29GW month - on - month), and the cumulative output from January to August is 429.12GW (down 8.77% year - on - year). The inventory is 16.87GW (slightly up week - on - week), and the predicted output in September is 57.53GW (slightly up) [66][69]. - **Battery Cell**: The output in August is 58.27GW (up 0.08GW month - on - month), and the operating rate is 56.89% (down 2.17 percentage points month - on - month). The cumulative output from January to August is 446.87GW (up 0.96% year - on - year). The inventory is 5.94GW (recovering), and the predicted output in September is 60.04GW (slightly up) [74][77]. - **Module**: The output in August is 49.2GW (up 2.1GW month - on - month), and the operating rate is 49.09% (up 3.17 percentage points month - on - month). The cumulative output from January to August is 379.6GW (up 1.31% year - on - year). The inventory is 34.5GW (slightly up), and the predicted output in September is 50.3GW (higher than August) [82][85]. 3.5 Organic Silicon - **Output**: As of September 19, 2025, the DMC output is 48,600 tons (down 300 tons week - on - week). In August, the output is 219,600 tons (up 13,100 tons month - on - month), and the cumulative output from January to August is 1.653 billion tons (up 17.58% year - on - year) [92]. - **Price and Profit**: As of September 19, 2025, the average price of organic silicon is 10,800 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the DMC gross profit is - 1,959.38 yuan/ton [95]. - **Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, the DMC inventory is 45,800 tons (down 1,500 tons week - on - week) [98]. 3.6 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Export - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of September 19, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 is 21,220 yuan/ton (down 250 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,920 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week). The cumulative output from January to August is 12.324 billion tons (up 2.163 billion tons or 21.29% year - on - year). The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy is 57.4%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy is 55.9% [103][106]. - **Export**: From January to July, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon is 409,400 tons (up 5,400 tons or 1.33% year - on - year) [109].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For polysilicon, the long - term price upward trend is certain, recommended to buy on dips in the medium - long term; short - term is volatile, and there may be a deep correction in futures prices. For industrial silicon, the short - term price may correct, but the decline is limited, and it is recommended to participate in long positions after a sufficient correction [4][6] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Polysilicon**: In September, silicon wafer production is expected to increase by 6GW to 58GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 116,000 tons. The polysilicon production is expected to remain around 130,000 tons. The total inventory in the polysilicon industry is close to 400,000 tons, and the downstream inventory is about 180,000 - 200,000 tons. Long - term price is likely to rise, short - term is volatile. Operation strategies include buying on dips for far - month contracts, and conducting reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts [4][5] - **Industrial silicon**: This week, DMC weekly production increased by 0.62% to 48,900 tons, polysilicon weekly production decreased by 0.60% to 31,200 tons, primary aluminum alloy operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 57.6%, and recycled aluminum alloy operating rate remained flat at 55.5%. Industrial silicon weekly production increased by 2.75% to 95,500 tons. Social inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 539,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 3,100 tons to 176,700 tons, and downstream raw material inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 221,600 tons. The short - term price may correct, and it is recommended to avoid short - term long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options or participate in long positions after a sufficient correction, and conduct reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts [6][7] Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market Performance**: This week, industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 8,745 yuan/ton. Spot prices generally rose by 100 yuan/ton [10] - **Downstream Demand**: DMC production increased, polysilicon production slightly decreased, and aluminum alloy operating rate increased. DMC weekly production was 48,900 tons, polysilicon weekly production was 31,200 tons, primary aluminum alloy operating rate was 57.6%, and recycled aluminum alloy operating rate was 55.5% [13] - **Production**: This week, industrial silicon weekly production was 95,500 tons, a 2.75% increase. The number of furnaces in Xinjiang increased by 7, and it is expected that industrial silicon production will increase slightly in the future [25] - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 539,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 3,100 tons to 176,700 tons, and downstream raw material inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 221,600 tons [26] - **Product Prices**: Industrial silicon spot prices strengthened, organic silicon - related product prices were stable, organic silicon intermediate operating rate increased slightly, and aluminum alloy operating rate increased slightly. Xinjiang refined coal prices and charcoal prices rose [31][35][41][45][48] Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price**: This week, polysilicon spot prices decreased. N - type re - feedstock price was 49.1 - 54 yuan/kg, N - type dense material price was 48.1 - 52 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon price was 48 - 49 yuan/kg. The lower limit of rod - shaped silicon price decreased by 1,000 yuan/ton compared with last week, and granular silicon price remained stable [54][61] - **Silicon Wafer and Battery**: Silicon wafer and battery prices strengthened. Leading enterprises raised silicon wafer quotes, and battery prices increased accordingly. It is expected that battery quotes may continue to rise [62][68] - **Component**: Some component prices increased. Domestic photovoltaic component prices increased, and the cost - side supported the price increase. Some projects have accepted higher prices [69] - **Fundamental Data**: Component domestic orders are average, inventory is moderately high, and the production schedule in September is slightly increased to 45GW. Battery export demand is good, inventory is moderately high, and the production schedule is increased to 57GW. Silicon wafer enterprise operating rate increased, weekly production reached 13.88GW, inventory is 16.55GW, and the production in September is expected to be 58GW. Polysilicon production decreased slightly this week, and factory inventory increased to 234,200 tons. The production in September is expected to be flat compared with August, around 130,000 tons [77][83][88][93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon remained in a "weak reality" situation in August with both supply and demand increasing, and its price was expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. The market should pay attention to the second - wave fermentation of the "anti - involution" sentiment and the impact of downstream polysilicon capacity integration [15]. - Polysilicon continued the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short - term focus was on capacity integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. If there was substantial progress in capacity integration in September, the price was expected to rise, with high volatility in the range of 47,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Monthly Key Points Summary** - In August, polysilicon production was 131,700 tons (SMM), a monthly increase of 25,400 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 811,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.67%. DMC production was 219,600 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 13,100 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 1.653 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.58%. From January to July, the cumulative production of aluminum alloy was 10.628 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.409 million tons or 15.28%. From January to July, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 409,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5,400 tons or 1.33%. At the end of August, industrial silicon inventory was 688,200 tons (Baichuan Yingfu) [13]. - As of August 31, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 8,950 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 600 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,400 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,600 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 750 yuan/ton. The average production cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,395.83 yuan/ton, 9,393.75 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 9,090.48 yuan/ton in Sichuan. In August 2025, industrial silicon production was 370,500 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 49,300 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 2.5505 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 538,600 tons or 17.44% [14]. - **Fundamental Assessment** - **Industrial Silicon**: In August, both supply and demand of industrial silicon increased, but it was still in a "weak reality" pattern. The price was expected to fluctuate weakly, with an estimated price range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon continued the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short - term focus was on capacity integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. The price was expected to be highly volatile in the range of 47,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Industrial Silicon**: As of August 31, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 8,950 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 600 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,400 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,600 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 750 yuan/ton [22]. - **Polysilicon**: As of August 31, 2025, the average price of N - type polysilicon re -投料 was 49 yuan/kg, a monthly increase of 2.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 48 yuan/kg, a monthly increase of 2.5 yuan/kg [25]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - **Total Production**: In August 2025, industrial silicon production was 370,500 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 49,300 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 2.5505 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 538,600 tons or 17.44% [30]. - **Production in Main Producing Areas**: The document shows the production trends of industrial silicon in main producing areas such as Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu through charts [32][34][37]. - **Production Cost**: As of August 31, 2025, the electricity price and silicon coal price in main producing areas remained flat month - on - month. The average production cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,395.83 yuan/ton, 9,393.75 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 9,090.48 yuan/ton in Sichuan [46]. - **Visible Inventory**: At the end of August, industrial silicon inventory was 688,200 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), remaining at a high level. Factory inventory was 261,400 tons, market inventory was 174,500 tons, and registered warehouse receipt inventory was 252,300 tons [49]. 3.4 Polysilicon - **Production**: In August, polysilicon production was 131,700 tons (SMM), a monthly increase of 25,400 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 811,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.67% [54]. - **Operating Rate and Scheduling**: In August, the operating rate of polysilicon was 45.78% (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 6.55 percentage points. SMM predicted that the production in August would be 126,700 tons, with a month - on - month decrease in the operating rate [57]. - **Inventory**: As of August 31, 2025, polysilicon inventory was 233,000 tons (Baichuan Yingfu) and 213,000 tons (SMM), with a certain reduction in factory inventory [60]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 31, 2025, the production cost of polysilicon was 41,322.29 yuan/ton (Baichuan Yingfu), and the gross profit was 6,153.90 yuan/ton, showing a continuous month - on - month improvement [63]. - **Silicon Wafer**: In August, silicon wafer production was 56.04 GW (SMM), a monthly increase of 3.29 GW; cumulative production from January to August was 429.12 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 8.77%. As of August 31, 2025, silicon wafer inventory was 18.05 GW (SMM), a slight month - on - month decrease; the predicted production in September was 57.53 GW, a continuous month - on - month increase [66][69]. - **Battery Cell**: In August, battery cell production was 58.27 GW (SMM), a monthly increase of 0.08 GW; the operating rate was 56.89%, a monthly decrease of 2.17 percentage points. Cumulative production from January to August was 446.87 GW, a year - on - year increase of 0.96%. As of September 1, 2025, the inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories was 7.81 GW (SMM), a month - on - month increase; the predicted production in September was 60.04 GW, a slight month - on - month increase [74][77]. - **Module**: In August, module production was 49.2 GW (SMM), a monthly increase of 2.1 GW; the operating rate was 49.09%, a monthly increase of 3.17 percentage points. Cumulative production from January to August was 379.6 GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.31%. As of September 1, 2025, the finished product inventory of photovoltaic modules was 33.9 GW (SMM), a month - on - month decrease; the predicted production in August was 50.3 GW, an increase compared to August [82][85]. 3.5 Organic Silicon - **Production**: In August, DMC production was 219,600 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 13,100 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 1.653 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.58% [92]. - **Price and Profit**: As of August 31, 2025, the average price of organic silicon was 10,750 yuan/ton (SMM), a monthly decrease of 1,650 yuan/ton. The gross profit of DMC was - 1,859.38 yuan/ton (Baichuan Yingfu), showing a month - on - month weakening [95]. - **Inventory**: As of August 31, 2025, DMC inventory was 49,300 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 3,600 tons [98]. 3.6 Silicon Aluminum Alloy and Export - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of August 31, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21,140 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 110 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20,770 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 680 yuan/ton. From January to July, the cumulative production of aluminum alloy was 10.628 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.409 million tons or 15.28%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.4%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 55.3% [103][106]. - **Export**: From January to July, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon in China was 409,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5,400 tons or 1.33% [109].