Group 1 - The foundation of a long-term bull market requires not only liquidity improvement but also robust fundamental enhancements, with historical data showing that the longer the time cycle, the stronger the correlation between market performance and fundamentals [3][7][11] - The current bull market has significant room for growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a performance close to previous structural bull markets, yet still having considerable upside compared to comprehensive bull markets from 2005-2007 and 2013-2015 [5][6] - The policy environment provides critical turning points for expected improvements, with historical instances indicating that key policy announcements often coincide with the onset of bull markets [15][18] Group 2 - In 2026, price changes are expected to be a major driver of profitability, with projections indicating that A-share earnings growth will gradually recover to around 10%, particularly in the non-financial sector [40][53] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" provides a significant policy foundation for economic and industrial development, with expectations for positive market performance in the opening year of the plan [112][114] - The structural highlights in profitability are anticipated to emerge from sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and advanced manufacturing, which are expected to continue their upward trajectory [56][61] Group 3 - Resident funds are the most crucial source of capital for the A-share market, with a notable trend of "deposit migration" observed, indicating a sustained flow of funds into the equity market [63][67] - High-risk preference funds have been the primary incremental source of capital in the current bull market, similar to trends seen in 2015, while medium-risk preference funds are expected to become significant contributors in the next phase [70][91] - The importance of ETF investments is expected to increase, with passive equity funds showing better performance and gaining traction among investors [96][100]

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report is to explore which industries that have underperformed for three consecutive years have a higher probability of reversal in the coming year. It highlights that industries like beauty care, basic chemicals, and social services are currently close to their historical longest periods of underperformance [2][3][10] - The report identifies that defensive industries such as environmental protection, public utilities, and transportation are more likely to exhibit prolonged underperformance due to their weak cyclical nature and low beta characteristics. These industries tend to show a "prolonged decline" feature [2][3][10] - The report indicates that the trend of negative excess returns in public utility sectors is attributed to the small-cap stocks within these sectors, which lack both offensive characteristics during bull markets and stable dividend attributes. The divergence between industry leaders and small-cap stocks has become more pronounced since 2017 [3][24] Group 2 - The report provides statistical analysis from 2007 to 2025, showing that the probability of an industry that has underperformed for three consecutive years winning in the fourth year is inversely related to its historical performance. This suggests that industries with a long history of weak performance are likely to continue this trend [3][10] - The report notes that the current industries that have underperformed for three years and are close to their historical longest underperformance periods include beauty care, basic chemicals, and social services. It also mentions that the food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, social services, and pharmaceutical biotechnology sectors have a higher probability of winning in the fourth year [4][38] - The report emphasizes that the monthly trading volume of public utilities, environmental protection, and transportation has been decreasing as a proportion of total A-share trading volume, indicating a long-term downward trend in liquidity for these sectors [4][24][37]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of traditional industries in China's economic landscape, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting their role in stabilizing growth, employment, and income [5][10]. Market Review - The recent market performance indicates a shift from growth stocks to value stocks, with traditional sectors like electric equipment, steel, and coal showing significant gains, while tech sectors faced declines [2][4]. - The "old-style" stocks, characterized by stable earnings and generous dividends, are regaining attention as market dynamics shift [2][4]. Industry Rebalancing - Traditional industries are crucial for short-term demand expansion and are categorized under the 14th Five-Year Plan as essential for economic stability [4][5]. - The plan aims to optimize traditional industries while fostering new and future industries, with traditional sectors accounting for approximately 80% of manufacturing value [5]. Traditional Industries' Role - Traditional industries are seen as the backbone of the economy, essential for maintaining growth, employment, and income levels, especially during economic downturns [5]. - The service sector also plays a vital role in employment, necessitating a shift towards high-quality development [5]. Market Analysis of Traditional Industries - The analysis of operational and financial leverage across traditional industries reveals varying levels of risk and opportunity, with some sectors showing signs of stress due to high leverage [6]. - The first quadrant indicates high non-current asset ratios and debt levels, posing risks in a slowing economy, while the third quadrant shows low leverage, suggesting potential for growth in an upward economic trend [6]. Short-term Trends in Traditional Industries - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicates a recent uptick in prices for certain traditional sectors, supporting the profitability of traditional industry stocks [9]. - Specific sectors like coal mining and black metal mining have shown PPI increases, which may enhance their profitability [9]. Investment Strategy for Traditional Industries - The article warns against a rigid investment approach, termed the "Guevara dilemma," advocating for a flexible strategy that adapts to changing market conditions [10]. - Traditional industries must integrate with new technologies and models to achieve high-quality development, emphasizing the need for innovation and transformation [10].

证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 7 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 A 股全天震荡走强，沪指重回 4000 点 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4007.76 | 0.97% | 38.51 | | | 深证成指 | 13452.42 | 1.73% | 228.86 | | | 沪深 300 | 4693.40 | 1.43% | 66.15 | | | 创业板 | 3224.62 | 1.84% | 58.39 | | | 科创 50 | 1436.86 | 3.34% | 46.46 | | | 北证 50 | 1519.81 | -0.38% | -5.75 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 3.05% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Report's Core View - The convertible bond market showed an incremental increase and valuation lift on November 6, 2025. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.53% compared to the previous day, and the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up. The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - priced bonds rose. The valuation of convertible bonds also increased. In the industry, more than half of the underlying stock industry indices rose, with different performance among various industries [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 488.77, up 0.53% daily, 0.02% weekly, 1.37% monthly, and 17.90% since the beginning of 2025. Other convertible bond - related indices also showed varying degrees of increase. Among the A - share indices, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.84%, etc. In terms of market style, mid - cap value was relatively dominant, with the mid - cap value index rising 2.10% [2][8][9]. 2. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 78.222 billion yuan, a 12.51% increase compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 2.075904 trillion yuan, a 9.58% increase. The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 3.798 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond rose 1.36bp to 1.81% [2]. 3. Convertible Bond Valuation - The 100 - par - value fitted conversion premium rate was 31.46%, up 0.02pct compared to the previous day, at the 99.30% quantile since 2019. The overall weighted average par value was 104.03 yuan, up 0.49%. The price median was 132.88 yuan, up 0.25%, also at the 99.30% quantile since 2019. The conversion premium rates of different types of convertible bonds (such as equity - biased, debt - biased, and balanced) all increased [3][18][22]. 4. Industry Rotation - In the A - share market, the top three rising industries were non - ferrous metals (+3.05%), electronics (+3.00%), and communication (+2.37%); the top three falling industries were media (-1.35%), social services (-1.10%), and commercial and retail (-1.04%). In the convertible bond market, the top three rising industries were national defense and military industry (+3.36%), steel (+2.34%), and automobile (+2.28%); the top three falling industries were media (-0.33%), textile and apparel (-0.29%), and household appliances (-0.23%) [4][56].

Group 1 - The overall performance of upstream resource products remains low, with internal structural differentiation continuing. The coal industry maintains stable conditions, with a slight month-on-month increase in thermal coal prices. The oil and petrochemical sector continues to show weakness, with a widening year-on-year decline in gasoline and natural gas prices. Basic chemicals are under pressure, with prices of PVC and methanol continuing to decline. Non-ferrous metals remain relatively stable, with slight increases in copper and aluminum prices. Demand for construction materials is weak, with cement and glass prices still in negative territory year-on-year [3][4][5] - In the midstream manufacturing sector, the new energy chain performs well, with improvements in power equipment and a rebound in prices of polysilicon and components. The machinery equipment industry continues its recovery, with marginal improvements in demand for transportation and engineering equipment. The automotive sector shows short-term recovery but remains weak overall, with operating rates and sales improving month-on-month but still below last year's levels. The textile and apparel sector shows significant differentiation, with stable raw material prices but slow recovery in downstream orders [3][4][5] - The downstream consumer sector continues to show a differentiated pattern, with the home appliance sector remaining robust, and sales of small household appliances and kitchen appliances performing well. The food and beverage sector shows a month-on-month rebound, with overall mild increases in agricultural product prices. The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experiences increased differentiation, with prices of traditional Chinese medicinal materials continuing to decline. The social services sector continues to recover, with hotel and tourism-related indicators improving month-on-month and increased consumer activity [3][4][5] Group 2 - Supportive services and finance show a continued recovery trend, with the banking system's performance improving month-on-month, and liquidity rebounding, leading to a marginal easing of the funding environment. Non-bank financial services remain highly active but with slowing growth. Transportation shows differentiation, with shipping and container freight rates rebounding while overall freight rates face slight pressure. The environmental protection sector continues to warm up, with improvements in air quality and related investment indicators [3][4][5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.97% on November 6, with 19 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the metals and electronics sectors, which increased by 3.05% and 3.00% respectively [1] - The media and social services sectors had the largest declines, falling by 1.35% and 1.11% respectively [1] Capital Flow - The net inflow of capital in the two markets was 6.174 billion yuan, with 12 sectors seeing net inflows [1] - The electronics sector had the highest net inflow of 12.224 billion yuan, while the metals sector followed with a net inflow of 3.647 billion yuan [1] Social Services Sector - The social services sector declined by 1.11%, with a net outflow of 1.1 billion yuan [2] - Out of 79 stocks in this sector, 25 rose while 54 fell, with one stock hitting the daily limit down [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net outflows included Caesar Travel, Changbai Mountain, and Xince Standard, with outflows of 228 million yuan, 166 million yuan, and 93.93 million yuan respectively [2] Individual Stock Performance in Social Services - The stock performance in the social services sector showed significant declines for several companies, with Caesar Travel down by 9.37% and Changbai Mountain down by 9.48% [2] - Notable stocks with net inflows included Zhonggang Tianyuan, which saw an inflow of 17.851 million yuan, and Shibu Testing with 9.2576 million yuan [4]

Market Overview - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a synchronized rally, with major indices closing higher, reflecting a dual driving force of technology leadership and volume cooperation [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index returned to the 4000-point mark, while the ChiNext Index and Shenzhen Component Index both rose, indicating strong market momentum [2] - Total trading volume in A-shares exceeded 10.7 trillion yuan, marking a recent high and showcasing significant trading activity [2] Sector Performance - A-shares displayed a "technology + resources" dual mainline characteristic, with the non-ferrous metals sector surging by 2.90%, driven by global inflation expectations and demand for industrial metals [3] - The semiconductor industry chain saw a comprehensive breakout, with significant gains in computing hardware and storage chips, reflecting the resonance of AI hardware localization and the new power system construction [3] - In Hong Kong, the resources sector led the gains, with the materials index soaring by 4.56%, and aluminum-related stocks rising over 10%, indicating a cross-market resonance with A-shares [4] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investment strategies for the fourth quarter should focus on policy guidance and industry trends, particularly in technology growth sectors such as AI hardware and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] - Attention should be given to cyclical and resource products, especially in non-ferrous metals like gold and copper, which benefit from expectations of a weaker dollar [5] - Monitoring the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is crucial, with a focus on AI and high-end manufacturing as long-term mainlines [5] Operational Suggestions - Companies are advised to maintain reasonable positions, avoid speculative trading, and prioritize high-quality stocks with strong valuation and performance alignment across technology growth, cyclical resources, and policy-driven opportunities [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant style switch in November, with the banking sector leading the market gains while previously strong sectors like metals and new energy are declining [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - On November 4, the banking sector rose by 2.03%, leading the market, while the metals sector fell by 3.04% [1]. - Historical data shows that in bull markets, style switches are common at year-end, primarily driven by policy, industry trends, and fund reallocation [2][3]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior - In the fourth quarter, there is often pressure to realize gains in leading sectors, as these sectors have accumulated significant increases [4]. - As of Q3 2025, the electronic sector's holding ratio reached 25%, and TMT sector holdings exceeded 40%, both at historical highs [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a balanced allocation strategy to navigate market volatility during the style switch period, while still recognizing the ongoing value in technology growth stocks [5]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to favor growth stocks due to the anticipated easing of monetary policy in the U.S., which could enhance liquidity [5]. Group 4: Sector Recommendations - Current recommendations include focusing on traditional industries that show improved capital returns, such as non-bank financials, steel, basic chemicals, and machinery, despite their lack of investor interest [5][6]. - The recovery of global manufacturing is uneven but moving towards alignment, with the U.S. benefiting from AI spillover and emerging markets seeing a return of capital and capacity rebuilding [6].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volume contraction with the ChiNext index dropping nearly 2% [3] - Major indices closed as follows: Shanghai Composite Index at 3960.19 (-0.41%), Shenzhen Component Index at 13175.22 (-1.71%), and ChiNext at 3134.09 (-1.96%) [1][3] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Banking (+2.03%), Utilities (+0.24%), and Environmental Protection (+0.15%) [2] - The worst-performing sectors were Non-ferrous Metals (-3.04%), Medical Biology (-1.97%), and Basic Chemicals (-1.57%) [2] Market Sentiment and Trends - The market showed mixed sentiment with various sectors experiencing volatility; while the Fujian sector rose, the innovative drug concept faced adjustments [3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.91 trillion yuan, a decrease of 191.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5] Future Outlook - The report suggests that investors should be cautious and flexible in managing their positions, especially in light of the recent market fluctuations [5] - Defensive sectors such as Financials and Coal, as well as low-positioned sectors like Food and Beverage, are recommended for attention [5] Policy Developments - The National Health Commission released guidelines to promote AI applications in healthcare, aiming to establish high-quality data sets and intelligent applications by 2027 [4]