Market Overview - The overall market shows a "weak Shanghai, strong Shenzhen" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.27%, the ChiNext Index by 0.41%, and the STAR Market 50 Index by 0.36%, indicating a preference for growth styles [2] - A-share trading volume reached 1.9 trillion yuan, with a cumulative annual trading volume exceeding 405 trillion yuan, marking a historical high, reflecting increased market activity and liquidity depth [2] Structural Analysis - The performance of the Shenwan first-level industry indices reveals clear capital flows, with leading sectors such as power equipment (+1.12%), building materials (+0.88%), and electronics (+0.58%) showing gains, while consumer sectors like social services (-2.07%) and beauty care (-1.65%) faced significant adjustments [3] - The leading sectors benefit from clear industrial policies, improved economic cycles, or expectations of valuation recovery, while the consumer sector's adjustment reflects a reassessment of short-term recovery strength and valuation [3] Focus on Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery supply chain has seen a comprehensive surge, with significant increases in sub-indices for lithium battery electrolyte, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and lithium battery separators, driven by solid underlying logic rather than speculative trading [4] Market Outlook - The index is likely to maintain a volatile trend, but structural opportunities will continue to emerge, supported by a friendly policy environment, ample liquidity, gradually recovering corporate earnings, and reasonable market valuations [4] - A forward-looking judgment suggests that the "spring excitement" market in 2026 may start earlier than expected, driven by strong policy expectations, improving economic fundamentals, and a favorable global liquidity environment [4] - Key market themes are expected to revolve around technology innovation (AI applications, semiconductors, robotics), cyclical recovery (improving supply-demand dynamics in non-ferrous metals and chemicals), and balanced allocation (low-valuation sectors benefiting from market activity) [4] Summary of Market Sentiment - The market has conducted a concentrated "vote" through clear sector differentiation, indicating that funds are currently favoring directions aligned with long-term policy guidance and improving economic conditions [5] - The central economic work conference has positioned new energy as a strategic emerging industry, with potential support from special government bonds, providing clear backing for long-term industry development [5] - In a context of ample market liquidity, growth sectors attract high-risk preference funds, as evidenced by significant trading volumes in related thematic indices, indicating institutional capital's collective layout rather than retail speculation [5] - Marginal improvements in the fundamentals are noted, with a stable trend in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and signs of price stabilization for key materials after prolonged declines, correcting pessimistic profit expectations in the supply chain [5]

| 代码 | 简称 | 业绩预告 日期 | 业绩预告 类型 | 预计净利 润增幅 | 最新收盘 价（元） | 今年以来 涨跌（%） | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 中值（%） | | | | | 301449 | N天溯 | 2025.12.22 | 预增 | 10.31 | | | 社会服务 | | 301667 | N纳百川 | 2025.12.22 | 预增 | 9.72 | | | 汽车 | | 301678 | 新恒汇 | 2025.06.17 | 预增 | 4.66 | 67.18 | 60.41 | 电子 | | 301638 | 南网数字 | 2025.11.13 | 预增 | 2.76 | 19.80 | 7.14 | 计算机 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （原标题：2025年业绩暴增创业板股名单） 证券时报•数据宝统计显示，4家创业板公司公布了2025年业绩预告。业绩预告类型来看，业绩预增的有 4家。 创业板全年业绩预告一览 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a focus on sectors with relatively low valuations such as liquor, hotels, catering, and duty-free segments, indicating a positive outlook for these areas [3]. Core Insights - The consumer sector faced a decline in the week of December 15-19, with various sub-sectors experiencing different levels of downturn, including retail and food and beverage [3]. - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18, 2025, is expected to significantly boost the duty-free industry, with the proportion of zero-tariff goods increasing from approximately 21% to 74%, enhancing product availability [3]. - Retail sales growth slowed in November, with total retail sales increasing by only 1.3% year-on-year, while policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are anticipated to aid recovery [3]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector saw a broad decline, with specific weekly changes in various segments such as retail and food and beverage [3]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - Hainan's duty-free shopping saw a significant increase in sales growth rates in September, October, and November, with respective year-on-year increases of 3.4%, 13.1%, and 27.1% [3]. - The report highlights the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic focus for the upcoming year, with the central economic work conference prioritizing this initiative [3]. - Key announcements include the IPO of Lin Qingxuan, which is expected to grow its revenue from 690 million yuan in 2022 to 1.21 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 32.7% [15].

1、上周市场回顾 关键词：波动盘整 上周权益市场震荡，上证指数上涨0.02%，深证指数下跌0.9%，沪深300下跌0.3%，创业板指下跌 2.3%，科创50下跌3%。 债市上涨，10年国债收益率收于1.83%左右，下行约1.8bp，7年国债收益下行3bp左右，1年国债收益率 下行约3.3bp，3年期中债企业债收益率下行约4.6bp。 | 廈号 让莽代码 | | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [区间首日] 2025-12-15 区间尾日 2025-12-20 [単位] % ↓ | | | 801200.SI | 1 | 商贸零售(申万) | | 6.6572 | | 2 801790.SI | | 非银金融(申万) | | 2.8961 | | 3 801980.SI | | 美容护理(申万) | | 2.8666 | | 4 801210.Sl | | 社会服务(申万) | | 2.6559 | 行业涨跌榜 | 庭号 证券代码 | | 证券简称 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View of the Report - The market continued its high - level oscillation last week (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.19), with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.03% and the CSI 300 falling 0.28%. The value style outperformed the growth style. In the short term, the market is expected to continue its structurally differentiated market, and broad - based indices may maintain high - level oscillations. In the long term, industrial innovation changes and long - term capital inflows are still expected to support the market [3][12][13]. - Domestic policies are focused on boosting domestic demand and consumption. There may be continuous policies in the future to optimize the implementation of relevant policies, clear unreasonable restrictions in the consumption field, and release the potential of service consumption. Attention should also be paid to whether the expanded national subsidy policy will be introduced after New Year's Day to further boost consumption [5][13]. - The Hong Kong stock market was under pressure last week due to factors such as the rise of US bond yields and concerns about the reversal of yen carry - trades. In the short term, market risk appetite may be under pressure, but it still has certain valuation advantages if short - term suppressing factors are eliminated [5][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - **Market Performance**: The market continued high - level oscillation last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.03% and the CSI 300 down 0.28%. The value style was stronger than the growth style. The financial and consumption sectors performed relatively well, while the growth sector was weak. The average daily trading volume of the whole market was 17,465 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [12]. - **Overseas Market**: After the concern about the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike was alleviated and the US non - farm payrolls report and inflation data were weaker than expected, the risk appetite of the financial market was restored, and overseas technology assets rebounded from oversold conditions. However, there are still concerns about US re - inflation, and US bond yields remained strong [12]. - **Domestic Market**: Benefiting from the elevation of domestic demand expansion to a strategic level, various ministries and official media have continuously emphasized domestic demand expansion and consumption promotion. The market has switched to cyclical sectors dominated by service consumption. Since December, there have been many market hotspots but no clear main line [12][13]. - **Domestic Demand Policy**: The core of the policy is to adhere to the strategic base point of domestic demand expansion, promote the in - depth integration of people's livelihood improvement and consumption promotion, and stimulate market vitality. There may be continuous policies in the future, and attention should be paid to whether the national subsidy policy will be expanded after New Year's Day [13]. - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: The Hang Seng Index fell 1.10% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.82% last week. Most sectors pulled back. The rise of US bond yields and concerns about the reversal of yen carry - trades suppressed the liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market. In the short term, market risk appetite may be under pressure, but it has certain valuation advantages in the long run [14]. 3.2 Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking | Index Classification | Last Week (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.19) | Last Month (2025.11.19 - 2025.12.19) | Since the Beginning of This Year (2025.01.02 - 2025.12.19) | Since Inception | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Strategy Theme: Active Stock Fund Preferred | 0.09% | 1.95% | 39.19% | 40.32% | | Investment Style: Value Stock Fund Preferred | 1.02% | 0.67% | 19.97% | 20.06% | | Investment Style: Balanced Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.11% | 0.32% | 30.61% | 27.74% | | Investment Style: Growth Stock Fund Preferred | - 1.02% | 1.61% | 52.89% | 39.15% | | Industry Theme: Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred | - 2.04% | - 2.88% | 33.86% | 15.96% | | Industry Theme: Consumption Stock Fund Preferred | 0.03% | - 0.33% | 11.14% | 3.98% | | Industry Theme: Technology Stock Fund Preferred | - 1.45% | 1.21% | 45.92% | 48.21% | | Industry Theme: High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred | - 3.24% | - 2.33% | 30.77% | 24.46% | | Industry Theme: Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred | 1.68% | 2.82% | 29.40% | 20.26% | [15] - **Active Stock Fund Preferred**: Each period selects 15 funds with equal - weight allocation. The core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness, style stability, etc., and balance the style distribution according to the CSI Active Stock Fund Index. The performance benchmark is the Active Stock Fund Index (930980.CSI) [16]. - **Value Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [18]. - **Balanced Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds of relatively balanced and value - growth styles. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [20]. - **Growth Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth Index (H30355.CSI) [22][23]. - **Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 15 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [23][27]. - **Consumption Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). The performance benchmark is the consumption theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [27]. - **Technology Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Electronics, etc.). The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [32]. - **High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Construction, etc.). The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [34]. - **Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 5 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemical, etc.). The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [34][35].

证券研究报告|2025年12月22日 资配跨年展望 春季躁动，你想知道的一切 资产配置研究·深度报告 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 01 全球资产 02 AH大势 03 风格 04 行业规律 05 技术实操 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 全球权益资产的"跨年行情"或"春季躁动"是否成立 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 全球资产的"跨年红包"与"春季行情"。1）季节效应上看，历年Q4全球主要市场股指涨幅更高，海外央行年末释放鸽派信号、外企 "岁末双薪"入市，圣诞假风偏提升驱动全球权益资产的"跨年红包"行情；2）大宗商品方面，Q1季节性偏强，黄金Q1强于Q4，银、 铜Q4强于Q1，布油四个季度表现逐季递减，受 OPEC 配额调整、冬季取暖和春季出行预期影响，一季度弹性偏大；3）全球资产如何共 振，中国"春季 ...

Group 1 - Investors are shifting focus from overseas central bank monetary policies to domestic policies aimed at promoting consumption and boosting internal demand, leading to strong performance in sectors such as retail, beauty care, and social services [1] - The market experienced volatility with a decrease in trading volume, averaging around 17,000 billion yuan, which is a decline from the previous week [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a pattern of consolidation below the 60-day moving average, indicating market pressure with support levels, and is expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern in the short term [1] Group 2 - The technology sector faced significant declines due to global investor divergence on AI development trends, contributing to overall market volatility [1] - The market's investment enthusiasm has slightly decreased, with a rapid rotation of industry focus observed as the year-end approaches [1] - Major market hotspots were concentrated in the consumer and non-bank financial sectors, while technology stocks led the decline [1]

转自：新华财经 新华财经上海12月22日电 中信证券研报分析认为，推动人民币升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开 始升温，投资者要逐步适应在一个人民币持续升值的环境下去做资产配置。 从过去20年间7轮人民币升值周期来看，汇率并不是主导行业配置的决定性因素。然而，部分行业在持 续升值预期形成的初期确实会有更好表现，市场可能会复制这样的肌肉记忆，同时从成本收入分析来 看，约19%的行业会因为升值带来利润率提升，这些行业也会逐步被投资者重视起来。此外，为抑制过 快单边升值趋势而做出的政策应对，反而是影响行业配置的更重要因素。 编辑：林郑宏 行业配置上，在人民币持续升值的背景下，可以关注短期肌肉记忆驱动、利润率变化驱动以及政策变化 驱动三条线索。基于2023年的国民经济投入产出表数据对211个细分行业进行了人民币升值背景下的成 本收入分析，受益于人民币升值的行业大概可以分为四类：1）上游资源品和原材料，包括：钢铁、有 色、石油石化（炼化）、基础化工（化肥、涂料、化纤、塑料等）、建材（耐火材料）、电子（半导体 材料）；2）内需消费品，主要包括：农林牧渔（饲料、植物油、糖）、轻工制造（造纸、纸制品）、 消费电子等；3）服务 ...

智通财经APP获悉，华西证券发布研究报告称，复盘历史，A股"春季躁动"行情启动通常需满足以下条 件：合理的估值水平、宽松的流动性环境以及有效提振风险偏好的催化剂，如国内政策、产业事件催化 或外部风险缓释等。当前来看，海外美联储降息和日本央行加息均已落地，市场对套利交易逆转担忧缓 解，后续人民币汇率升值带动的外资增配、年初保费收入"开门红"带来的增量保险资金入市亦可以期 待。近期股票型ETF再度大规模净申购，多只宽基ETF成交放量，指向增量资金倾向于逢低布局。 华西证券主要观点如下： 市场回顾：本周全球股指多数下跌，韩国综合指数、恒生科技和日经225指领跌。A股成交再度缩量， 万得全A日均成交额回落至1.76万亿元附近，市场情绪趋于谨慎，主要指数中科创50和创业板指领跌， 资金轮动至红利板块。风格上，金融和消费板块上涨，一级行业中，商贸零售、非银金融、美容护理、 社会服务领涨;成长风格下跌，电子和电力设备指数跌超3%。大宗商品方面，COMEX白银大涨8.7%， 铜铝价格震荡上行，双焦底部反弹。外汇方面，日央行加息落地后，日元对美元汇率走贬，人民币对美 元则延续升值态势。 一、复盘历史，除2021和2022年外， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that most primary industry sectors have shown upward movement, but the growth is generally moderate, with retail, non-bank financials, beauty care, and social services leading the gains due to the increasing importance of domestic demand strategies and related policy expectations [1] - The retail, beauty care, and social service sectors have performed well as a result of the sustained emphasis on domestic demand, while the non-bank financial sector has been boosted by the recovery in brokerage and insurance sectors [1] - Conversely, sectors such as electronics, electrical equipment, and machinery have experienced the largest declines, attributed to profit-taking in the electric equipment sector and a lack of catalysts in the machinery sector [1] Group 2 - In terms of investment direction, defensive low-yield dividend sectors like coal and oil & petrochemicals are recommended for short-term positioning, while non-bank financials should be considered for adjustments to capture market beta opportunities [2] - There is potential for a recovery in cyclical sectors related to domestic demand, such as consumer goods, driven by policy expectations [2] - Growth-oriented sectors, particularly those benefiting from AI and semiconductors, should focus on leading companies with strong earnings certainty, as well as sectors like embodied intelligence and innovative pharmaceuticals that may see progress next year [2]