2025 年 06 月 02 日 耐用消费产业行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：杨欣（执业 S1130522080010） yangxin1＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：王刚（执业 S1130524080001） wang_g＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：张杨桓（执业 S1130522090001） zhangyanghuan＠gjzq.com.cn 消费中观策略&投资建议 ①基本面有向好变化的低位传统核心资产，资本市场逻辑是高低切，新消费已经将表观 30-60XPE 的高标估值体 系确立，传统核心资产的估值水位也有望在流动性宽松叠加公募基准欠配背景下向上修复，尤其是在地产高频数 据企稳经济有自发筑底倾向&传统消费 25Q2 开始财报基数下降景气度增速有自发回升趋势背景下，建议关注安踏 体育，雅迪控股，裕同科技等；②坚定持有兑现度较高的新消费龙头，建议关注泡泡玛特，康耐特光学等。预计 消费类资金有望向两个方向切换；③积极拥抱新消费赛道或具备新消费思维的传统 ...

中信建投：关税冲击再起，内需韧性支撑 关税担忧再起，短期或压制市场情绪，但从边际上看，市场正逐步对关税脱敏。4月工业企业利润改善，"两 新"与消费激励政策兑现程度良好，拉动下游消费增长，同时支撑中游设备制造业，5月PMI制造业整体景气回 暖，出口订单反弹，新动能和消费品表现突出，中国基本面的韧性将为市场提供底部支撑。微盘股交易热度上 升，拥挤度高位，注意交易拥挤风险。 配置上继续看好具备地缘政治隔离、内需驱动和成长弹性特征的"新质内需成长"方向，目前仍以内需循环为 佳，聚焦服务消费、新消费、反关税。行业重点关注：美容护理、农林牧渔、国防军工、有色金属、医药生 物、计算机、社会服务、商贸零售等。 中国银河证券：市场调整空间有限 近期板块轮动速度加快，行情震荡格局尚未改变，市场成交额未出现明显放量，仍以存量博弈为主。外围市场 方面仍然存在较大不确定性。尽管当前中美达成阶段性关税协议，短期缓解了外贸压力，但后续特朗普政府政 策仍然存在反复性。短期内，市场或仍维持震荡格局，关注外部关税的变化与国内政策的落地节奏。在国内一 系列政策支持下，市场调整空间有限。同时，6月18日至19日陆家嘴论坛期间将发布若干重大金融政策， ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 报告摘要 5月A股港股市场有所回暖 5月A股主要指数涨跌分化，行业端涨多跌少。受风险偏好波动等因素影响，5月（截至27日），A股主要指数 涨跌出现分化，其中万得全A涨幅最大，而科创50跌幅最大。行业端涨多跌少，轻工制造、综合、纺织服饰等 行业表现较好，而电子、计算机、房地产、社会服务等行业表现相对较差。 5月港股市场震荡上行。5月受海外扰动缓和、国内风险偏好回暖等因素影响，港股市场整体走势震荡上行。截 至2025年5月27日，恒生香港35、恒生指数、恒生综合指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒生科技的涨幅分别为 7.6%、5.7%、5.3%、4.9%、1.9%。 A股观点：继续关注三类资产 政策的持续支持以及中长期资金积极流入背景下， A股市场有望震荡上行。当前A股市场的估值处于2010年以 来的均值附近，而随着政策的积极发力，中长期资金带来的增量资金或将持续流入市场，对资本市场形成托 底，A股市场有望震荡上行。 配置方向上，关注三类资产。方向一：稳定类资产，如高股息、黄金。稳定类资产能够在市场面临不确定时提 供确定性。方向二：产业链自主可控。在"双循环"新发展格局和全球产业链重构的双重驱 ...

Group 1 - The overall business sentiment in Singapore has turned conservative, with the proportion of companies expecting economic deterioration rising from 22% in Q4 2024 to 40% in Q1 2025. The Business Sentiment Index (BSI) score is 56.5 [1] - The service industry shows the lowest sentiment, with the BSI score for the hotel, restaurant, and accommodation sector at 52.2, indicating significant pessimism across revenue expectations, profitability, expansion willingness, capital investment plans, and growth confidence [2] - Companies across various sectors anticipate rising costs, with the real estate and hotel sectors showing the highest cost expectation scores of 78.4 and 71.9, respectively [3] Group 2 - The financial and education sectors exhibit relatively optimistic sentiments, with BSI scores of 61.2 and 60.5, respectively. These sectors also lead in profit expectations and business expansion outlook [4] - A significant 52% of companies are actively pursuing digital transformation and process optimization, while 49% have initiated employee skill enhancement programs. However, challenges such as high technology application costs and staffing issues during training persist [5] - Liquidity and financing issues are critical, with 22% of companies facing moderate to high credit tightening. 35% of companies report cash flow may not sustain normal operations for 3 to 6 months, and 27% have sought financing in the past year, primarily for business expansion [5]

大消费 [T分析师able_A：uthor 罗鹏 ] 执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 研究助理：赵靖 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 4 月社零可选消费表现亮眼 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 26 日 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（5 月第 4 周） 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ROA（%） 5.2 利润增长率（%） 4.21 资产负债率（%） 149 期间费用率（%） 4.54 存货周转率（%） 42.56 讯 1) 上周（5/19-5/23）大消费板块表现分化。家用电器、纺织服 饰、食品饮料、美容护理、社会服务、商贸零售周涨跌幅分别 为+1.21%、-0.11%、-1.27%、-1.48%、-1.60%、-1.61%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.18%。食品饮料、家用电器、纺织服饰、 ...

【 机构观点综评 】 方正证券指出，展望后市，小微盘占优行情特征或将延续。博时基金认为，存款 挂牌利率下移，汇率约束的缓解，货币市场以及短端利率补降可能会延续。 一、焦点锐评 1．LPR迎来年内首降，六大行同步调降存款利率 二、权益市场 1.中信证券：特朗普政策不确定性仍是大类资产配置主线 中信证券明明认为，大类资产配置方面，特朗普政策不确定性仍然是大类资产配置的主线，未来需要关 注外贸政策缓和或焦点转向内政的可能性。而在目前特朗普影响市场的模式中，"特朗普看跌期权"仍然 生效。在今年底至明年初之前，美债或为4%~5%区间震荡行情；黄金仍然是最具确定性的资产；特朗 普影响下美股的胜率仍然偏低；美元或偏弱震荡。但若特朗普政策焦点转向内部，美股和美债的拐点可 能提前到来。 2.方正证券：小微盘占优行情特征或延续 方正证券指出，展望后市，小微盘占优行情特征或将延续，主要判断依据包括：一是当前资本市场无系 统性风险，整体上A股风险偏好在不断回升。二是工业品价格持续收缩、上市公司盈利仍在筑底，经济 转型探索新方向过程仍在延续。三是流动性持续宽裕，无风险利率处于历史低位。四是新质生产力持续 发展，并购重组进一步释放市场活 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of three key financial metrics—ROE, cash flow, and growth potential—as the foundational pillars for assessing a company's value and its ability to navigate market cycles [1][8]. ROE Analysis - The overall ROE for the A-share market decreased from 5.6% in 2023 to 4.3% in 2024, indicating a general decline in profitability across the market [5][7]. - The household appliance sector leads with an ROE of 8.2%, supported by a 0.75 asset turnover ratio and a 6.1% net profit margin, exemplifying a high-frequency turnover and reasonable profit model [6][7]. - The coal industry saw its ROE plummet from 12.0% to 7.3%, primarily due to a significant drop in net profit margin from 10.1% to 6.7% as resource advantages diminished [7][8]. - The real estate sector is the only one with a negative ROE of -0.4%, driven by a -3.2% net profit margin and a high leverage ratio of 3.3, indicating unsustainable high-leverage models under declining demand [7][8]. Growth Potential - The electronics industry leads in revenue growth with a 17.4% increase, driven by surging demand for AI computing power and semiconductor manufacturing [9][11]. - Nine industries, including electronics and automotive, reported net profit growth, with the electronics sector achieving a remarkable 35.8% increase in net profit [11][12]. - The computer industry has the highest R&D investment ratio at 12.9%, indicating a focus on building technological barriers for long-term value creation [12][13]. Cash Flow Insights - The coal industry has the highest operating cash flow, amounting to 2,111.3 million, with a strong profitability ratio of 1.6, indicating robust cash flow coverage [16][19]. - Only 44% of A-share companies have a healthy cash flow ratio, with 56% showing concerning profitability quality, highlighting potential funding shortages for many firms [19][20]. - The top five industries by operating cash flow (oil and petrochemicals, communication, public utilities, transportation, and automotive) demonstrate a trend of stable cash flow generation, supporting capital expenditures without excessive reliance on external financing [20][21].

FICC日报 | 2025-05-23 市场成交缩量，上证50走势偏强 市场分析 政策支持小微企业。国内方面，金融监管总局正联合科技部研究制定科技保险高质量发展政策文件，并推动保险 资金参与国家重大科技任务。证监会将支持突破关键核心技术的科技企业适用"绿色通道"。央行表示，目前已有 近100家机构发行超2500亿元科技创新债券。海外方面，特朗普的减税法案在众议院以微弱优势通过，将交由参议 院审议。该法案计划在未来十年内减税逾4万亿美元，并削减至少1.5万亿美元支出。该法案将把美国债务上限提高 4万亿美元，低于参议院所希望的5万亿美元。 股指回调。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收跌，上证指数跌0.22%收于3380.19点，创业板指跌0.96%。行业方面， 板块指数跌多涨少，仅银行、传媒、家用电器行业收红，美容护理、社会服务、基础化工、环保行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交金额小幅回落在1.1万亿元。证监会发行监管司司长表示，证监会将持续优化科技企业境内上市 的环境，会实施更加灵活精准的新股发行逆周期调节机制，把握好新股发行的节奏。继续发挥好创新试点的相关 制度，支持优质红筹科技企业回归境内上市。海外市场，美联储理事 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.2%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.1%, the STAR 50 dropped by 0.5%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1.1%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.0%, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.2% on Thursday [4] - The best-performing sectors on Thursday were banking (+1%), media (+0.1%), and home appliances (0%), while the worst-performing sectors included beauty care (-2.0%), social services (-1.8%), basic chemicals (-1.7%), environmental protection (-1.5%), and real estate (-1.4%) [4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,102.7 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 3.88 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Important Insights Fixed Income Credit Bonds - The core viewpoint indicates that the main value of sci-tech bonds lies in contributing incremental value to the bond market, with an expected annual issuance close to 1.9 trillion yuan, which alleviates asset scarcity issues [5] - In terms of pricing, sci-tech bonds have an average yield spread of approximately 10 basis points compared to ordinary bonds issued by the same entity, suggesting that the market pricing for sci-tech bonds has not changed due to policy shifts [5] Macroeconomic Analysis - The core viewpoint highlights that the fiscal situation in April 2025 showed improvement, with national public budget revenue increasing by 1.9% year-on-year (compared to 0.3% in March), and public budget expenditure rising by 5.8% year-on-year (compared to 5.7% in March) [6] - The second budget also improved, with government fund budget revenue growth recorded at 8.1%, returning to positive growth [6] - The report suggests that to address potential uncertainties, the central government has reserved sufficient tools and policy space, including the possibility of issuing special government bonds and special bonds [6]

A股复盘 | 银行科技 / 2025.05.22 恰逢今天周四，A股跌了， 银行又逆势上涨 ！ 恰逢今天又有发布会，主题是科技金融政策！ 于是乎，银行科技诞生，哈哈哈 今天微盘股、北证50崩了！昨天晚上，群里流传着卖方的研究成果——微盘股交 易太拥挤！这好像给了市场一种信号，卖！ 北证50直接大跌6%。 不过今天A股下跌还有外围因素，近期日债、美债风险大爆发，隔夜20年期美债 标售爆冷，直接带崩了股债汇！收盘美股三大指数均创一个月来的最大跌幅。30 年期国债收益率升至5.09%；十年期也升至4.60%。 而现在，避险 资产已经不单单是黄金了，比特币表现更优。 周四早盘，比特币涨破11万美元，再创历史新高，自特朗普当选总统以来已上涨 超过 60%。自"解放日"以来，虽然黄金也出现了稳健反弹，但比特币似乎成为 了全球应对不确定性的首选资产。 德意志银行比较悲观，首席外汇策略师George Saravelos指出，美元兑日元与 10年期美债收益率之间不断扩大的背离，是财政风险上升的信号。而美债拍卖结 果更是明确无误地显示出： "外国买家正在集体罢工，拒绝购买美国资产，这正 是我们一直以来所警告的美国财政风险。" 外 ...