Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,095 points, up by 0.24%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.37% [2][3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 4.1 billion HKD today [2] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks exhibited divergent trends, with Meituan dropping over 3%, while Alibaba, Xiaomi, and NetEase saw gains [2] - The overall sentiment in the tech sector remains cautious, influenced by the performance of large-cap stocks [2][4] Heavy Machinery Sector - Heavy machinery stocks experienced a collective surge, with Sany Heavy Industry rising over 5% [6] - The heavy truck market in China reported sales of approximately 100,000 units in November, marking a year-on-year increase of about 46% [6] - The industry has seen a consistent upward trend, with an average growth rate of 42% since April [6] Insurance Sector - Insurance stocks showed recovery, with China Pacific Insurance, China Life Insurance, and China People's Insurance Group rising by 3.32%, 2.78%, and 2.54% respectively [7] - Analysts suggest that the impact of real estate sector fluctuations on insurance companies is limited, and a rebound in the insurance liability side is expected [7] New Energy Vehicles (NEV) Sector - The NEV sector faced pressure, with NIO, XPeng Motors, and Li Auto experiencing declines of 6.74%, 5.52%, and 0.78% respectively [10][11] - November sales data revealed that XPeng delivered 36,728 vehicles (up 19% YoY), NIO delivered 36,275 vehicles (up over 76% YoY), while Li Auto's deliveries fell by over 30% YoY [10] Consumer Electronics Sector - The consumer electronics sector continued its upward trend, with companies like FIH Mobile, AAC Technologies, and GoerTek seeing increases of 5.38%, 3.95%, and 3.00% respectively [12][14] - The rise of AI in mobile technology is expected to reshape industry competition and create new growth opportunities for related companies [12] Innovative Pharmaceuticals Sector - The innovative pharmaceuticals sector weakened, with companies like Peijia Medical and WuXi AppTec experiencing declines of 10.36% and 5.13% respectively [15][17] - Analysts believe that the sector is sensitive to global financing conditions, and a potential easing of monetary policy could alleviate financing pressures and support valuation recovery [15]

Group 1 - The market has been experiencing volatility and lack of direction due to high expectations and positions in the technology growth sector, alongside concerns about the AI bubble and cooling interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant pullback in the Hang Seng Technology Index by approximately 16.6% from its peak [1] - The domestic consumption and real estate sectors, despite attractive valuations and positions, have seen a weakening of fundamentals, making it difficult for investors to reach a consensus [1] - The banking sector has rebounded nearly 10% from the end of September, emerging as a preferred choice in the current environment of uncertainty [1] Group 2 - Over the past two years, the essence of China's asset dynamics can be summarized as the pursuit of "scarce assets" driven by "excess liquidity," with market consensus rapidly inflating asset prices once they are recognized as scarce [2] - The technology sector remains a sustained growth direction, with hardware in A-shares showing greater elasticity and software in Hong Kong stocks demonstrating resilience, although high valuations and expectations necessitate additional industry progress or liquidity to catalyze growth [3] - Domestic consumption and real estate chains, while having low expectations and valuations, face challenges in forming a lasting consensus due to weakening fundamentals, although policy catalysts could create temporary trading opportunities [3] Group 3 - Dividend stocks continue to be a good hedge against the backdrop of domestic credit contraction [3] - External demand chains should focus on strong and early cycles, with potential catalysts from increased physical investment due to U.S. fiscal policies ahead of midterm elections and unexpected Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] - An "barbell" investment strategy combining dividends and technology internet stocks is recommended, with dynamic adjustments to weights based on market conditions to achieve effective hedging and balance [4]

周五盘前，在芝商所（CME）因技术故障导致期货交易冻结后，CME集团、纽约证券交易所母公司洲 际交易所以及纳斯达克的股票受到关注。由于数据中心故障，CME的期货和期权交易暂停了几个小 时。不过在此之前，美国股指合约几乎没有变化，盘前交易中亦没有发生意外，谷歌、亚马逊和微软等 大型科技股小幅走高。美国股市周四因感恩节休市。节日后的第二天通常交易量相对清淡，因为股票交 易所在纽约只交易到下午1点，而其通常的收盘时间是当地时间下午4点。目前此次中断已经比2019年另 一次因技术错误导致的长达数小时的故障更长。这也引发了广泛的不满，因为市场参与者正考虑可能会 损失一整个交易日的前景。 来源：视频滚动新闻 ...

11月27日，港股收盘，恒生指数涨0.07%，恒生科技指数跌0.36%。内房股多数下跌，万科企业跌超 7%，世茂集团跌超6%，龙湖集团跌超3%；科技股走势趋于分化，小米涨超2%，阿里巴巴跌超2%。 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.07%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.36% [1] - Most property stocks declined, with Vanke Enterprises dropping over 7%, Shimao Group falling over 6%, and Longfor Group decreasing over 3% [1] - Tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Xiaomi rising over 2% and Alibaba falling over 2% [1] Group 2 - Pop Mart surged over 6%, and Zhufeng Gold increased over 5% [1]

多名美联储官员发声！ 北京时间25日晚间消息，美联储理事米兰表示，美国经济需要大幅降息，货币政策阻碍了经济发展。米兰认 为，美国不存在通胀问题，美联储应该尽快将利率降至中性水平。此前，美联储官员戴利也表示，她支持在下 个月的美联储会议上降低利率。 周二公布的数据显示，美国9月核心PPI同比增长2.6%，预期增长2.7%，前值增长2.8%；美国9月零售销售环比 增0.2%，预期增0.4%，前值增0.6%。 当前，市场押注美联储降息升温。据CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率上升至84.7%，维持 利率不变的概率为15.3%。 周二，美股主要指数V型反弹。截至收盘，道指上涨1.43%，标普500指数上涨0.91%，纳指上涨0.67%。大型科 技股走势分化，Meta涨超3%，亚马逊、谷歌涨超1%。此外，苹果涨0.38%，股价创历史新高；AMD跌超4%， 英伟达跌2.59%，甲骨文跌1.62%。 美联储官员最新发声 值得关注的是，美联储官员戴利也支持在12月降息。旧金山联邦储备银行行长戴利当地时间周一表示，她支持 在下个月的美联储会议上降低利率，因为她认为就业市场突然恶化的可能性比通胀再度飙升的可能 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-11-24 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 49.80 | 50.10 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.00 | 50.20 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 2.07% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 3.11% on November 21 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The semiconductor sector led the declines, with notable drops in stocks such as Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC, both falling over 5% [1] - Shanghai Fudan also saw a decline of nearly 3% [1] Group 2: Technology Sector - Technology stocks faced widespread losses, with Baidu dropping over 6% and Alibaba declining by 4% [1] - Other major players like NetEase and JD.com experienced declines of nearly 3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing significant structural changes in both company and investor composition, suggesting a potential systemic uplift in valuations, with the equity risk premium (ERP) likely to decline in the medium to long term [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 29.15% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 32.23% in the first ten months of the year, indicating a bullish market [2]. - The current market performance is primarily driven by valuation expansion, yet the overall valuation remains relatively low compared to global peers [2]. Group 2: Earnings Expectations - There has been a continuous upward revision in earnings expectations for many companies, reflecting a positive outlook for corporate profitability [2]. - In a neutral scenario, the potential return for the Hang Seng Index next year is estimated at approximately 22.92%, with an optimistic scenario reaching up to 33.83% [2]. Group 3: Structural Changes - The industry and investor structures in the Hong Kong market have undergone profound changes, with the technology sector's market capitalization and trading volume surpassing that of traditional sectors over the past decade [4]. - The current ERP in the Hong Kong market is around 5%, a low level not seen since early 2018, indicating potential for valuation uplift [3]. Group 4: Offshore Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market's offshore characteristics lead to a higher volatility in ERP compared to other major global markets, with historical lower bounds around 4% [4][5]. - The proportion of trading through the Stock Connect program is approximately 25%-30%, which is on an upward trend, indicating a shift towards reducing the offshore discount and aligning valuations with global markets [5].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on November 18, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.80% at 26,172.27 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 1.25% [1] - Xpeng Motors reported a total vehicle delivery of 116,007 units for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 149.3%, with total revenue reaching RMB 20.38 billion, up 101.8% year-on-year [1] - The company's net loss narrowed to approximately RMB 380 million, a decrease of 78.9% year-on-year and 20.3% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2 - Xpeng Motors expects Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries to be between 125,000 and 132,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 36.6% to 44.3% [1] - Total revenue for Q4 2025 is projected to be between RMB 21.5 billion and RMB 23 billion, an increase of approximately 33.5% to 42.8% year-on-year [1] - Citic Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Xpeng Motors, forecasting revenue of RMB 77.8 billion, RMB 115.4 billion, and RMB 141.9 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-sales ratios of 2.2, 1.5, and 1.2 [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Auto ETF (159323) focuses on the Hong Kong new energy vehicle sector, including emerging car manufacturers like Xpeng and Li Auto, and is expected to benefit from advancements in robotics technology [3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) includes major Chinese tech assets such as Xiaomi, NetEase, Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan, providing a way for investors to access Hong Kong tech leaders without a Stock Connect account [3]