在沪指创十年新高、创业板指突破近年高点的背景下，近期多家机构认为恒生科技有望迎来补涨机会。 公开信息显示，A股同赛道规模最大的恒生科技指数ETF（513180）囊括30家港股科技龙头，软硬科技 兼备，持仓股深度聚焦AI产业链的上中下游，其中阿里、腾讯、小米、美团、中芯国际、比亚迪等有 望成为中国科技股"七巨头"。没有港股通账户的投资者或可通过恒生科技指数ETF（513180）一键布局 中国AI核心资产。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 值得注意的是，小鹏汽车二季报显示，期内公司净亏损同比减少62.8%至4.8亿元，环比减少28.1%，亏 损情况连续两个季度大幅收窄。受季度交付量首次超过10万辆带动，公司期内营收同比增长125.3%至 182.7亿元并创历史新高，汽车毛利率则已连续八个季度改善。伴随新车型的陆续发布，公司预计第三 季度交付量介于11.3-11.8万辆，对应营收指引196-210亿元。 8月22日早盘，港股三大指数集体高开，其中恒生科技指数高开0.99%。盘面上，科网股涨跌不一，新 消费概念股普遍上涨，创新药概念延续涨势，黄金股活跃，造车新势力多数上涨，稳定币概念多股高 开。开盘后，受造车新势力大涨的 ...

Market Overview - On August 21, U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the S&P 500 down 0.4%, the Dow Jones down 0.34%, and the Nasdaq down 0.34%, marking five consecutive declines for the S&P 500 and three for the Nasdaq [1][5] - The market is focused on the upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank conference, where Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to deliver a key speech regarding future monetary policy [2][3] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials, including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and Kansas City Fed President Esther George, have expressed cautious signals, emphasizing that monetary policy should rely on data and are not in a hurry to cut rates [2][3] - Mester stated that current inflation levels remain too high and have been on the rise over the past year, indicating no reason to lower rates at this time [2] - Bostic believes that the current federal funds rate target range of 4.25%-4.5% is slightly tight and acknowledges significant uncertainty regarding the need for rate cuts [3] Economic Indicators - According to S&P Global, the U.S. manufacturing PMI expanded at its fastest pace in over three years due to stronger demand, contributing to a composite PMI that reached its highest level of the year in August [2] - This expansion has intensified ongoing inflationary pressures, as companies are increasingly passing on rising costs to customers [2] Walmart Financial Performance - Walmart reported second-quarter revenue of $177.4 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $176.16 billion, but adjusted earnings per share of $0.68 fell short of the expected $0.74, marking the first time in three years that profits did not meet expectations [6] - Walmart raised its full-year sales growth forecast to between 3.75% and 4.75%, up from the previous estimate of 3% to 4% [6] Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.35%, with notable gains in several Chinese companies such as XPeng Motors, which saw a nearly 12% increase, and NIO, which rose over 9% [7] - XPeng Motors reported a significant revenue increase of 125.3% year-over-year for Q2 2025, driven by a record high delivery volume of 103,200 vehicles, a 241.6% increase compared to the same period last year [7]

Market Performance - On August 21, US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 down by 0.34%, 0.34%, and 0.4% respectively, marking the S&P 500's fifth consecutive day of decline [2][3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.35%, with notable gains in Chinese stocks such as XPeng up over 11% and NIO up over 9% [5] Economic Indicators - The US Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims rose to 235,000, the largest increase in nearly three months, exceeding expectations of 225,000 [2] - Continuing claims reached 1.972 million, the highest since November 2021, surpassing the forecast of 1.96 million [2] Trade Agreement Developments - The US and EU announced a framework agreement for a trade deal covering various sectors including agricultural products, automobiles, aircraft, semiconductors, energy, and digital trade barriers [9][10] - The EU will eliminate tariffs on all US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US agricultural products, including nuts, dairy, and meat [10][11] Future Trade Relations - The EU is expected to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products by 2028 and commit to buying at least $400 billion in US AI chips for data center construction [13] - Ongoing negotiations will aim to further reduce tariffs and expand cooperation in additional sectors [14]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a bullish sentiment, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 3700 points, but the Hong Kong stock market has shown superior performance throughout the year, particularly as of August 18, with the Hang Seng Index's gains significantly outpacing those of the Shanghai Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index outperforming the ChiNext [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 18, the Hang Seng Index has a much higher increase compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating stronger overall performance in the Hong Kong market [1] - Southbound capital has seen a cumulative net inflow into Hong Kong stocks exceeding 940 billion HKD, setting a historical record and significantly surpassing the total for the previous year [1] Group 2: Reasons for Domestic Investment in Hong Kong Stocks - Hong Kong stocks have undergone a prolonged period of deep adjustment, leading to historically low valuation levels, which are now in a recovery phase, offering attractive value [1] - The global trend this year is a rebalancing of assets, particularly a shift from USD assets to non-USD markets, with Chinese assets being a crucial choice, and Hong Kong serving as a key entry point for global investors into China [1] - China's economy is undergoing a structural transformation, with emerging industries such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy vehicles showing significant growth potential, which are uniquely advantageous and even scarce in the Hong Kong market [1] Group 3: Sector Focus in Hong Kong Stocks - Key sectors in Hong Kong stocks include technology and internet, represented by the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) [1] - Consumer leaders are highlighted through the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) [1] - Pharmaceutical leaders are represented by the Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The major technology and internet companies in China, including Tencent, JD.com, Lenovo, and NetEase, reported second-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, indicating a recovery in the industry after a challenging period [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Leading companies achieved nearly double-digit or higher-than-expected growth, with Tencent reporting revenue of 184.5 billion RMB, a 15% year-on-year increase; Lenovo's revenue reached 127.9 billion RMB, growing by 24%; JD.com reported 356.7 billion RMB, up 22.4%; and NetEase saw a growth of 9.4% [5]. - This growth suggests that the previously feared "winter" for the industry may have ended, marking a phase of sustained recovery and development with significant growth momentum [5]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Significance - The recovery of the technology and internet sector is particularly meaningful from a macroeconomic perspective, reflecting improvements in the domestic consumer market and accelerated digital transformation of industries [7]. - Companies like JD.com and Alibaba serve as barometers for the health of China's real economy, with JD.com exceeding expectations in its financial report [7]. Group 3: Role of Artificial Intelligence - All companies that reported growth identified AI as a strategic priority, elevating its role beyond just a tool to a core infrastructure [8]. - Tencent integrated AI into its gaming, advertising, and social ecosystems, driving significant growth in its core business areas [8]. - Lenovo's AI PC penetration reached over 30% of its total PC shipments, with AI infrastructure revenue surging by 155%, indicating a strong market position in AI solutions [8][9]. Group 4: Linkage to the Real Economy - Major tech companies are increasingly leveraging their technological capabilities and platform resources to support the real economy [10]. - JD.com is enhancing traditional retail through its supply chain services, while Lenovo is optimizing manufacturing processes with AI solutions, demonstrating the impact of technology on traditional industries [10]. - Tencent is providing comprehensive services to small and medium-sized enterprises, facilitating their digital transformation through various AI applications [10][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant investment activities by major institutional investors in Q2 2025, particularly focusing on sectors like healthcare, steel, real estate, and technology [1][2][6] - Berkshire Hathaway revealed its "mysterious holdings" by purchasing six new stocks, including UnitedHealth, Nucor Steel, and Lennar, with a total market value exceeding $3.6 billion at the end of the quarter [2][3] - Li Lu's Himalaya Capital re-entered Pinduoduo as its second-largest holding, indicating a stronger confidence in Chinese e-commerce, while also reducing its stake in Bank of America [4][5] Group 2 - Several prominent hedge funds, including Appaloosa and Scion, also invested in UnitedHealth, which has seen a significant stock price decline of over 45% since April 1, 2025 [3] - Major institutions like Hillhouse, Bridgewater, and JPMorgan increased their positions in technology stocks, capitalizing on the market downturn, with notable investments in Nvidia, Meta, and Google [6][7] - Vanguard, as one of the largest asset management firms, reported a total U.S. stock holding value of $6.18 trillion, with its top five holdings being Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Meta, reflecting a strong bullish sentiment towards the tech sector [7]

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed performance with Dow futures up by 0.59% and S&P 500 futures up by 0.12%, while Nasdaq futures declined by 0.05% [1] - European indices had varied results, with Germany's DAX up by 0.09%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.11%, France's CAC40 up by 0.58%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.27% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.53% to $63.62 per barrel, and Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.39% to $66.58 per barrel [3][4] Geopolitical Events - A significant meeting is scheduled between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska, focusing on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and peace prospects, marking their first in-person meeting in four years [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole conference on August 22, with market expectations leaning towards a potential 25 basis point rate cut due to inflation impacts and a slowing job market [6] - Bank of America strategist Hartnett warns that if the Fed signals a dovish stance at Jackson Hole, US stocks may face a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario [7] Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds have significantly increased their holdings in technology stocks during Q2, with notable purchases in Microsoft and Netflix, amidst a backdrop of market volatility due to trade policies [8] Economic Concerns - Bank of America raises alarms about the potential for the Fed to lower rates in a rising inflation environment, a scenario not seen in nearly two decades [9] Company Performance - Tuniu (TOUR.US) reported a 15.3% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2, with a new $10 million stock buyback plan announced [10] - New Oxygen (SY.US) experienced a 7.0% decline in Q2 revenue, attributed to a decrease in the number of medical service providers subscribing to its platform [11] - Applied Materials (AMAT.US) provided disappointing Q4 guidance, raising concerns about demand suppression due to US-China trade tensions [12] - Viomi Technology (VIOT.US) anticipates over 70% year-over-year revenue growth for the first half of 2025, driven by strong sales of home water purification devices [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on August 15, 2025. It also analyzes the performance of these contracts on August 14, 2025, and provides long - term (August 2025) trend expectations for some contracts [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Forecast on August 15, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to fluctuate and consolidate. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4176 and 4213 points and support levels at 4150 and 4138 points [2][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to fluctuate weakly. T2509 has support at 108.21 and 108.13 yuan and resistance at 108.40 and 108.47 yuan; TL2509 has support at 117.6 and 117.3 yuan and resistance at 118.1 and 118.5 yuan [2][39]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold (AU2510) and silver (AG2510) are likely to fluctuate weakly. Gold has support at 771.4 and 768.6 yuan/g and resistance at 778.7 and 781.8 yuan/g; silver has support at 9166 and 9130 yuan/kg and resistance at 9281 and 9346 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper (CU2509) is expected to fluctuate and consolidate; aluminum (AL2509) is likely to fluctuate strongly; alumina (AO2601) is likely to fluctuate weakly; industrial silicon (SI2511) is expected to have wide - range fluctuations; polycrystalline silicon (PS2511) is likely to have weakly wide - range fluctuations; and lithium carbonate (LC2511) is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [3]. - **Ferrous Metal Futures**: Iron ore (I2601) is likely to fluctuate strongly; coking coal (JM2601) is likely to have strongly wide - range fluctuations; rebar (RB2510) and hot - rolled coil (HC2510) are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; glass (FG601) and soda ash (SA601) are expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with soda ash potentially accumulating strength to attack resistance levels [3][4][6]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil (SC2509), PTA (TA601), PVC (V2601), and methanol (MA601) are likely to fluctuate strongly [6]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Rapeseed meal (RM601), rapeseed oil (OI601), soybean meal (M2601), and soybean oil (Y2601) are likely to fluctuate weakly; palm oil (P2601) and natural rubber (RU2601) are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [6][7]. 2. Macro - news and Trading Tips - The central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on August 15, 2025, with a 6 - month term. The cumulative outright reverse repurchase operations this month have exceeded the maturing amount by 30 billion yuan, effectively injecting medium - term liquidity. The market expects the central bank to increase the volume of MLF roll - overs after the 300 billion yuan MLF matures this month [8]. - The State Council has decided to modify the regulations on the entry and exit of foreigners, adding a new K - type visa to the general visa category for foreign young scientific and technological talents [8]. - China's total computing power ranks second globally. This year, more than 10 systems such as data property rights will be introduced, and a number of data industry cluster area construction pilots will be planned. By the end of the year, the number of data circulation node cities will be expanded to about 50 [8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission is working on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for marine economic development and special plans for related fields, aiming to break through a number of key core technologies and develop emerging marine industries [8]. - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has been frustrated. The US PPI in July soared to 3.3% year - on - year, and San Francisco Fed President Daly and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee oppose a large - scale rate cut [9]. - US President Trump has signed an executive order to relax commercial space regulations [9]. - US Treasury Secretary Yellen has clarified that she is not pressuring the Fed to cut rates [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims decreased to 1.953 million [10]. - The UK's GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.3% quarter - on - quarter [10]. 3. International Commodity Futures Performance on August 14, 2025 - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures fell 0.76% to $3382.30/oz, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.47% to $38.04/oz [12]. - **Crude Oil**: New York Mercantile Exchange's light crude oil futures for September delivery rose $1.31 to $63.96/barrel, and Brent crude oil futures for October delivery rose $1.21 to $66.84/barrel [12]. - **Base Metals**: LME copper fell $37 to $9766/ton; LME aluminum rose $4 to $2620/ton; LME zinc rose $20 to $2848/ton; LME lead rose $2 to $1990/ton; LME nickel fell $233 to $15031/ton; LME tin fell $266 to $33464/ton; LME cobalt remained flat at $33335/ton [13]. - **Agricultural Products**: ICE raw sugar futures fell 1.60%, ICE white sugar futures rose 0.55%, ICE cotton futures fell 0.21%, the Bloomberg grain classification index fell 0.77%, CBOT corn futures rose 0.31%, CBOT wheat futures fell 0.57%, CBOT soybean futures fell 1.27%, soybean meal futures fell 0.57%, and soybean oil futures fell 2.49% [13]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1730 at 16:30, up 25 points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1795 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was set at 7.1337, up 13 points. The US dollar index rose 0.42% to 98.21, and most non - US currencies fell [14]. 4. Futures Market Analysis on August 14, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: The three major A - share indexes declined collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.46% to 3666.44 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.87% to 11451.43 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08% to 2469.66 points. The trading volume of the two markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days [17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The domestic bond market continued to be weak. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose, and treasury bond futures closed down across the board [38]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures rose slightly, and silver futures had a mixed performance [41][49]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, and alumina futures declined; industrial silicon futures had a slight increase; polycrystalline silicon futures declined; and lithium carbonate futures had a slight increase [54][59][69]. - **Ferrous Metal Futures**: Iron ore, coking coal, rebar, and hot - rolled coil futures declined; glass and soda ash futures had mixed performances [78][82][89]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures declined [104][110][113][116]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and natural rubber futures declined [118][119][121][124][126][129].

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed performance, with Dow futures up by 0.59% and S&P 500 futures up by 0.12%, while Nasdaq futures declined by 0.05% [1] - European indices had varied results, with Germany's DAX up by 0.09%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.11%, France's CAC40 up by 0.58%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.27% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.53% to $63.62 per barrel, while Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.39% to $66.58 per barrel [3][4] Geopolitical Events - A significant meeting is scheduled between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska, focusing on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and peace prospects, marking their first in-person meeting in four years [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole conference on August 22, with market expectations leaning towards a potential 25 basis point rate cut due to inflation and a slowing job market [6] - Bank of America warns that if the Fed signals a dovish stance at Jackson Hole, US stocks may face a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario, indicating potential market corrections [7] Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds have significantly increased their holdings in technology stocks during Q2, with notable purchases in Microsoft and Netflix, amidst a backdrop of market volatility due to trade policies [8] Economic Concerns - Bank of America raised concerns about the potential for the dollar to face challenges if the Fed lowers rates while inflation is rising, a scenario not seen in nearly 20 years [9] Company Performance - Tuniu (TOUR.US) reported a 15.3% year-over-year increase in Q2 revenue, with a new $10 million stock buyback plan announced [10] - New Oxygen (SY.US) experienced a 7.0% decline in Q2 revenue, attributed to a decrease in the number of medical service providers subscribing to its platform [11] - Applied Materials (AMAT.US) provided disappointing Q4 guidance, raising concerns about demand suppression due to US-China trade tensions [11] - Cloud Mi Technology (VIOT.US) expects over 1.4 billion RMB in revenue for the first half of 2025, a growth of over 70% year-over-year, driven by increased sales of home water purification devices [12]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Barra Risk Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies and quantifies common factors (industry and style factors) and idiosyncratic factors affecting stock returns, aiming to decompose return sources and provide risk constraints such as industry and style neutrality[119][121]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Data Processing**: - Align reporting periods due to varying fiscal years among Hong Kong-listed companies[120]. - Standardize accounting standards using Wind GSD reports, converting to IFRS[120]. - Normalize financial reporting currencies using time-series exchange rates[120]. - Exclude dual-counter trading stocks and REITs for consistency[120]. - **Factor Construction**: - Constructed for three pools: Southbound Stock Connect, full Hong Kong market, and full market excluding penny stocks[121]. - Includes 10 major style factors (e.g., Beta, Momentum, Size, Earnings Yield) and industry factors[121]. - Factors are standardized using median-based outlier removal and normalized to standard normal distribution[122]. - Factor returns are calculated using Weighted Least Squares (WLS) with free-float market cap weights[122]. - Formula for WLS: ``` min Σ sqrt(w_i,t-1) * (r_i,t - Σ β_i,k,t-1 * f_k,t + Σ γ_i,m,t-1 * g_m,t)^2 ``` where weights are the fourth root of free-float market cap proportions[123]. - **Factor Definitions**: - Beta: Systematic risk derived from regression of stock returns against market returns[125]. - Momentum: Weighted log returns over a 500-day period[125]. - Size: Logarithm of total market capitalization[125]. - Earnings Yield: Inverse of P/E ratio[125]. - Volatility: Derived from residual standard deviation and monthly return ranges[125]. - Growth: Based on regression of past five years' revenue and earnings per share[125]. - Value: Inverse of P/B ratio[125]. - Leverage: Includes metrics like market leverage and debt-to-asset ratio[125]. - Liquidity: Based on trading volume relative to free-float shares over different time horizons[125]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates good applicability in the Hong Kong market, with stable R² values across different pools[126][152]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Barra Risk Model - **R² Values**: - Southbound Stock Connect: Average R² = 36.7% since 2014[126][152]. - Full Hong Kong Market: Average R² = 17.4%[126][152]. - Full Market (Excluding Penny Stocks): Average R² = 21.9%[126][152]. - **Factor Cumulative Returns**: - Positive: Beta, Momentum, Liquidity, BP, Earnings Yield[130][149]. - Negative: Size, Growth, Non-Linear Size[130][149]. - Mixed: Volatility (positive for full market, negative for Southbound Stock Connect), Leverage (positive for full market, negative for Southbound Stock Connect)[130][149]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Penny Stock Screening - **Factor Construction Idea**: Screen stocks based on price, financial, and behavioral metrics to identify and exclude penny stocks[117][118]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Price Metrics**: - Rolling one-month average closing price < 1 HKD and market cap < 10 billion HKD[117]. - Rolling one-month average closing price < 1 HKD and average trading volume in the lowest 20% of the market[117]. - **Financial Metrics**: - ROE and debt-to-asset ratio thresholds[118]. - **Behavioral Metrics**: - History of stock splits or rights issues in the past year[118]. - **Exclusion of "Three Highs"**: High equity pledges, high debt ratios, and frequent fundraising activities[118]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Helps mitigate risks associated with high-volatility, low-liquidity stocks prevalent in the Hong Kong market[117][118]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Penny Stock Screening - **Market Characteristics**: - As of June 2025, 56% of Hong Kong stocks are priced below 1 HKD, with 14.5% below 0.1 HKD[112][113]. - Penny stocks exhibit high volatility and low liquidity, making them risky for investment[112][117]. 2. Barra Risk Model Factors - **Cumulative Returns by Factor**: - Beta: Positive across all pools[130][149]. - Momentum: Positive across all pools[130][149]. - Size: Negative across all pools[130][149]. - Earnings Yield: Positive across all pools[130][149]. - Volatility: Positive for full market, negative for Southbound Stock Connect[130][149]. - Growth: Negative across all pools[130][149]. - Value: Positive across all pools[130][149]. - Leverage: Positive for full market, negative for Southbound Stock Connect[130][149]. - Liquidity: Positive across all pools[130][149].