10月15日早盘，港股三大指数高开高走，恒生科技指数涨幅一度扩大至2%。主流ETF方面，港股通汽 车ETF（159323）一度涨近2%，持仓股中，广汽集团一度涨超12%，黑芝麻智能、吉利汽车等涨幅居 前；恒生科技指数ETF（513180）涨超1.5%，持仓股中，京东健康、哔哩哔哩、ASMPT、阿里巴巴、 比亚迪股份等涨幅居前。 截至10月14日，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）标的指数最新估值（PETTM）为22.64倍，处于指数发布 以来约27.36%的估值分位点，仍处于历史相对低估区间，而高弹性、高成长等特性使其具备更大的向 上动能。没有港股通账户的投资者或可通过恒生科技指数ETF（513180）一键布局中国AI核心资产。 （场外联接A/C：013402/013403） 板块方面，早盘汽车股集体拉升。消息面上，10月14日，京东宣布联合广汽、宁德时代推出一款汽车产 品。此外，中汽协公布数据显示，9月，我国汽车产销历史同期首次超过300万辆，月度同比增速已连续 5个月保持10%以上。华创证券观点认为，4Q汽车基本面将延续旺销。 新能源车方面，乘联分会最新数据显示，9月新能源车渗透率升至57.8%。交银国际 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential benefits for Chinese assets, particularly in the context of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the restructuring of the global monetary system, which may lead to a reallocation of global funds towards China [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On October 15, the Hang Seng Index opened up by 1.08%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.31% [1] - Tech stocks showed signs of stabilization, with ASMPT increasing by over 3% [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF (159101) and the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) both opened with gains exceeding 1% [1] Group 2: Global Monetary Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts typically lead to a release of global liquidity, which may benefit Chinese assets, especially amid the current backdrop of global monetary system restructuring [1] - The combination of a depreciating dollar and a reversal in innovative narratives reflects a potential core driver for the current market trends [1] - If managed properly, Chinese assets could benefit from the dual dividends of accelerated fragmentation and diversification of the global monetary system [1] Group 3: Investment Focus - The article expresses optimism regarding the "catch-up" rally in Hong Kong stocks, shifting focus from "takeout narratives" to "AI narratives" [1] - Attention is drawn to the Hong Kong tech and internet sectors, which are seen as gathering core AI assets [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF (159101) covers the entire tech industry chain, while the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) focuses on leading internet companies [1]

Group 1: Technology Sector Insights - Embracing technology narratives has been key for investors seeking high returns this year, despite significant volatility in popular sectors [1] - The market is experiencing a shift from overheated trading and high valuations to areas with better cost-performance ratios, which is a long-term spontaneous behavior [1] - The technology sector, despite high valuations, remains strong in industrial trends and is considered one of the sectors with a high probability of positive returns [1] Group 2: Consumer Sector Analysis - The overall performance of the consumer sector has been weak, but new consumption areas are generating investment opportunities [2] - The demand for a better quality of life remains unchanged, and the evolving consumer demographics and product offerings are revealing growth potential in various niche markets [2] - Key areas of focus for future investments include trendy toys, pet food, beauty products, household cleaning items, health supplements, and snacks [2] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Characteristics - The Hong Kong market is primarily driven by institutional investors, which influences its unique pricing logic and market ecology [2] - There are stricter requirements for fundamentals in the Hong Kong market, often necessitating tangible performance indicators like orders or revenue to see good stock performance [2] - The high proportion of institutional investors leads to greater liquidity requirements for individual stocks, causing many small-cap stocks to be overlooked due to insufficient trading activity [2] Group 4: Investment Focus Areas - In the Hong Kong market, the focus is on scarce assets such as domestic technology internet giants and leading companies in the AI application field [2] - Attention is also directed towards undervalued Hong Kong stocks that are trading at a discount compared to their A-share counterparts, particularly in the financial and resource sectors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are likely to lead to a global reallocation of funds, benefiting Chinese assets amid a backdrop of restructuring in the global monetary system, characterized by a depreciation of the dollar and a reversal of innovative narratives [1] Group 1: Impact of Federal Reserve's Actions - Interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to enhance global liquidity, potentially putting downward pressure on the dollar's exchange rate, which may further facilitate global fund reallocation [1] - Proper policy responses could allow Chinese assets to benefit from the dual dividends of accelerated fragmentation and diversification of the global monetary system [1] Group 2: Opportunities in Chinese Assets - Fragmentation is likely to accelerate the repatriation of funds to China, while diversification may drive a rebalancing of global funds, with some capital possibly flowing into Chinese capital markets [1] - In the context of renminbi appreciation and reinforced by the Fed's rate cuts, there is optimism for a "catch-up" rally in Hong Kong stocks, shifting focus from "takeout narratives" to "AI narratives" [1] Group 3: Investment Products - The Hong Kong stock market technology sector is highlighted, particularly ETFs that cover the entire technology supply chain and focus on leading internet companies [1]

能源股全线走低，埃克森美孚跌近1%，雪佛龙跌超1%，康菲石油跌近2%，斯伦贝谢跌超2%，西方石 油跌逾1%。 中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌2.03%。禾赛科技跌超7%，小鹏汽车跌超5%，蔚来跌超 5%，小马智行跌逾5%，好未来跌超4%，阿特斯太阳能涨超11%，涂鸦智能涨逾4%，哔哩哔哩涨近 3%，晶科能源涨近2%，名创优品涨超1%。 消息方面，据路透社报道，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯(John Williams)在接受媒体采访时表示，鉴于就业市 场有进一步放缓的风险，他支持今年进一步降息。美联储下一次政策会议定于10月28日至29日举行，金 融市场预计美联储将再次降息25个基点。 欧洲股市：欧洲三大股指9日涨跌不一。英国伦敦股市《金融时报》100种股票平均价格指数报收于 9509.40点，较前一交易日下跌39.47点，跌幅为0.41%；法国巴黎股市CAC40指数报收于8041.36点，较 前一交易日下跌18.77点，跌幅为0.23%；德国法兰克福股市DAX指数报收于24611.25点，较前一交易日 上涨14.12点，涨幅为0.06%。 美股三大股指周四（9日）集体收跌，纳指、标普500指数创盘中历史新高后 ...

Market Overview - After the National Day holiday, A-shares resumed trading, and southbound funds returned, with Hong Kong's three major indices showing mixed results. The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.29% to 26,752.59 points, with a total turnover of HKD 38.68 billion [1] - CITIC Securities believes that the Hong Kong market benefits from a complete domestic AI industry chain and the increasing number of quality A-share companies listing in Hong Kong. The firm expects the long bull market that began in early 2024 to continue despite short-term geopolitical and trade uncertainties [1] Blue Chip Performance - HSBC Holdings led blue-chip stocks, rising by 25.88% to HKD 149.8, contributing 36.11 points to the Hang Seng Index. HSBC announced plans to privatize Hang Seng Bank at a price of HKD 155 per share, a 30% premium over the previous closing price [2] - Other notable blue-chip movements included Lenovo Group up 7.26%, Zijin Mining up 5.43%, while China Biologic Products fell by 7.49% and SMIC dropped by 6.7% [2] Sector Highlights - Large technology stocks showed mixed results, with Kuaishou rising over 3% and Alibaba falling over 2%. Precious metals saw significant gains during the holiday, with gold, silver, copper, and aluminum prices rising sharply [3][4] - The AI sector experienced varied performance, with Lenovo and Bilibili seeing gains, while Alibaba faced a decline. The recent acceleration in AI investments and applications is expected to strengthen the narrative around the sector [4][5] Notable Stocks - Shanghai Electric surged by 17.4% after achieving a key breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology, positioning itself as a leader in this field [7] - Goldwind Technology rose by 8.43%, benefiting from its role in promoting green energy transitions [8] - Jinli Permanent Magnet reached a new high, increasing by 8.67%, following announcements of export controls on rare earth-related items by the Ministry of Commerce [9] - HSBC Holdings faced pressure, dropping by 5.97%, amid its announcement regarding the privatization of Hang Seng Bank [10]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices rebounded after an initial dip, with the Hang Seng Index slightly up by 0.04%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 0.52% and 0.63% respectively, ending a three-day decline [1] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks showed mixed results, with Kuaishou up by 1.69%, while Meituan, JD.com, and Baidu also saw gains. Alibaba, NetEase, Xiaomi, and Tencent experienced slight declines [1] - Copper prices surged due to supply shortages and a computing power revolution, leading to significant gains in copper mining stocks. China Daye Non-Ferrous Metals soared nearly 20%, Jiangxi Copper rose over 11%, and China Nonferrous Mining increased by 8% [1] - Hong Kong local bank stocks surged, particularly HSBC, which plans to privatize through an agreement, causing Hang Seng Bank's stock to spike by 41%, reaching a historical high [1] - Mining resource stocks and high-speed rail infrastructure stocks saw substantial increases, with China Railway Group rising over 10% [1] - Institutional analysts are focusing on Q4 demand recovery due to low baselines, leading to a collective rebound in airline stocks, with China Eastern Airlines up nearly 10%. Wind power, semiconductor, telecommunications, oil, and property management stocks also saw gains [1] Declines in Specific Sectors - Pharmaceutical stocks fell across the board, with Innovent Biologics, SiHuan Pharmaceutical, and I-Mab leading the decline in innovative drug stocks [1] - The film industry faced a downturn due to poor box office performance during the National Day holiday, resulting in a collective drop in cinema stocks [1] - The automotive sector mostly declined [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed may further ease monetary policy this year, which has an impact on various financial and commodity markets [1][11]. - During the National Day holiday, the cross - regional passenger flow in China increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and Chinese equity assets rose slightly but underperformed globally [2]. - The supply side is the key factor affecting the price trends of various commodities, and different commodities face different supply and demand situations [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump announced that Israel and Hamas signed the first phase of the peace plan, and the Fed's meeting minutes indicated that further easing might be appropriate this year [10][11]. - Gold prices rose to a record high of $4059 and then fell back, increasing by about 5% during the holiday due to risk - aversion sentiment. Short - term, the positive factors are fully priced, and there is a risk of a pullback [11]. - Investment advice: Be cautious of the risk of a decline due to long - position profit - taking after the price hits a new high [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Macron plans to appoint a new prime minister, Trump said Israel and Hamas reached an agreement on hostage release and troop withdrawal, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting minutes showed internal differences on the number of interest - rate cuts [13][14][15]. - The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term, and the market's risk appetite continues to rise [16][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will remain volatile in the short term [18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Meta and Apple are about to reach a settlement with the EU Commission on antitrust cases, and the US Senate rejected the bipartisan temporary appropriation bill again [19][20]. - The Fed's meeting minutes showed internal differences among officials, but the market's optimistic sentiment towards AI and interest - rate cuts remains high, and the market is expected to remain strong [21]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to maintain a strong trend after a small adjustment [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's Ambassador to the US called for expanding China - US cooperation, and the cross - regional passenger flow during the National Day holiday increased by 6.2% year - on - year [23][24]. - Chinese equity assets rose slightly during the holiday but underperformed globally. The market is still in a structural pattern, and the rhythm is more important than the position [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market is in a structural pattern, and rhythm is more important than position [26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, and the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 2422 billion yuan [27][28]. - The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the first half of October and may strengthen after the 14th Five - Year Plan policies are implemented [28]. - Investment advice: The bond market is expected to fluctuate and bottom out in the short term. Short - term trading should be cautious, and medium - term long positions can be considered on dips [28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is about to start the B50 road test [29]. - During the holiday, Malaysian palm oil led the rise in the overseas oil market. The market predicts that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline slightly in September [30]. - Investment advice: The domestic market is expected to make up for the rise after the holiday, but be cautious of a pullback after a high opening. In the long - term, go long after the clear signal of production reduction in the producing areas in the fourth quarter [30]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The safety inspection in the Ordos steam coal market remains strict, and the coal price is expected to remain weak seasonally in October [31]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain weak in October, and pay attention to the policy game after the long - term agreement price [31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Japan's Nippon Steel and Champion Iron are promoting the Kami iron ore project [32]. - During the holiday, the iron ore price fluctuated narrowly around $104. The downstream finished - product market was weak, and the iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [32][33]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In September, China's soybean imports and crushing volume decreased month - on - month, and the US soybean old - crop inventory as of September 1 was lower than expected [34][35]. - The Brazilian soybean sowing progress reached 8.2% as of October 4. The CBOT soybean price rose slightly during the holiday. The US government shutdown suspended the release of relevant reports [37]. - Investment advice: The soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate temporarily, and Sino - US relations are the main influencing factor [37]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The EU plans to impose a 50% tariff on steel imports outside the quota [40]. - During the holiday, the overseas metal prices rose slightly, and the steel price is expected to rise slightly after the holiday, but the inventory accumulation during the holiday will suppress the spot price. Pay attention to the terminal demand [40]. - Investment advice: Treat the market with a range - bound mindset after the holiday and pay attention to the demand intensity [41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The red date price in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market was stable, and the futures price of the main contract CJ601 fell [42]. - The supply in Xinjiang is normal, and the demand in the north - south distribution areas is stable. The new - season output and old - crop inventory are still being debated [42]. - Investment advice: Hold a wait - and - see attitude or conduct short - term operations in the short term, and pay attention to the fruit development in the producing areas and downstream consumption [42]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The ICSG predicts that the global copper mine production will increase by 1.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, and there will be a supply surplus in 2025 and a shortage in 2026 [43][44]. - Teck Resources lowered its copper production forecast for its Chilean flagship mine, and Aurubis raised the European copper premium for 2026 [45][46]. - Investment advice: Adopt a long - position strategy unilaterally, and pay attention to the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [47]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The resumption of production of a small lead - zinc mine in Fujian was postponed to the end of October [48]. - The supply of lead has improved, and the demand is stable. The Shanghai lead price may fluctuate upward [50]. - Investment advice: Go long on dips unilaterally and pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the monthly spread [50]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - 29Metals withdrew its zinc production guidance due to an earthquake, and the resumption of production of a small lead - zinc mine in Fujian was postponed to the end of October [51][52]. - The LME zinc price is supported, and the domestic zinc export window may open. The inventory is expected to rise after the holiday [53]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude unilaterally, and pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity brought by the opening of the export window [53]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The expansion project of Xinjiang Dongfang Hope New Energy Co., Ltd.'s polysilicon plant is under environmental protection acceptance [54][55]. - The polysilicon price may remain flat, and the component price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [55][56]. - Investment advice: The market may fluctuate widely between 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton in October. Pay attention to the range - bound operation opportunities [57]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The SASAC called for抵制 "involution - style" competition [58]. - The inventory of industrial silicon is expected to accumulate slightly in September - October and decrease slightly in November - December [59]. - Investment advice: It is more cost - effective to go long on dips, but be cautious when chasing the price [59]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia will re - implement the annual RKAB system in 2026 [60]. - During the holiday, the LME nickel price was strong. The nickel ore price is expected to rise, and the nickel iron and intermediate product prices are expected to remain strong, but the refined nickel inventory is under pressure [61]. - Investment advice: Conduct range - bound trading in the short term, and go long at low levels from a configuration perspective [62]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Saudi Arabia's October CP official prices fell, and the US C3 inventory decreased [63][64]. - The PG price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. Pay attention to the start - stop changes of PDH plants after the import cost drops [64]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the start - stop changes of PDH plants after the import cost drops [64]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia will gradually increase oil production, and the US EIA crude oil inventory increased [65][66]. - International oil prices rebounded after falling during the holiday. The release of supply by oil - producing countries is the key factor affecting the price [66]. - Investment advice: The decline of oil prices depends on whether the supply of oil - producing countries can be effectively released [67]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export prices of bottle chip factories were mostly stable, with some slight decreases [68][69]. - The polyester raw material prices fell, and the bottle chip prices were under pressure. The demand is expected to be weak in the long term [70]. - Investment advice: The absolute price of bottle chips is at a low level, and the inventory of factories has decreased. Pay attention to the sustainability of production cuts and new capacity launches [70]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk said that the freight volume from China to Latin America and Africa has increased [71]. - During the National Day holiday, the spot index fell below 1050, and the short - term market may be weak. Pay attention to the low - buying opportunities after the over - decline of the 12 - contract [71]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the low - buying opportunities after the over - decline of the 12 - contract [72].

Group 1: Performance of Chinese Stocks and Gold Market - During the "Double Festival" holiday, Chinese concept stocks performed well, with technology stocks becoming a focus for overseas investors [1][6] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index reached five-year highs during the holiday, indicating increased interest from global investors in Chinese assets [1][6] - The international gold price surged, with New York futures gold breaking the $4000 per ounce mark for the first time, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 50% [2][4] - Gold consumption saw a spike during the holiday, with retail prices for gold jewelry rising from approximately 796 yuan per gram in early September to 926 yuan per gram by October 8 [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Many consumers expressed regret for not purchasing gold earlier, as prices increased by 38 yuan per gram during the holiday [3] - Banks reported a significant increase in inquiries about gold accumulation products, which are seen as more stable compared to gold futures investments [3] - The price gap between gold jewelry sales and buyback prices has widened, indicating a strong market sentiment towards gold [3][4] Group 3: Investment Outlook and Strategies - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, including expectations of continued central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [4][5] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 to $4900 per ounce, reflecting a bullish outlook on gold as a long-term investment [4][5] - Foreign institutions are optimistic about Chinese assets, with significant inflows into the stock market and a focus on technology sectors like semiconductors and AI [6][7] Group 4: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market experienced a promotional peak during the holiday, with developers offering discounts and incentives to boost sales [8][9] - In Shenzhen, new policies have led to a notable increase in new home sales, with some projects selling three times more than in August [8][9] - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is positive, with expectations for increased transactions in the fourth quarter due to promotional activities and policy support [9][10] Group 5: Robotics and Rental Market Growth - The demand for robot rentals surged during the holiday, with many companies reporting a doubling of inquiries compared to normal periods [11][14] - Robot performances at various events have increased public interest and awareness, contributing to the growth of the rental market [12][13] - The rental market is expected to evolve from initial hype to a more stable growth phase, focusing on practical applications beyond entertainment [14]

Group 1: U.S. Economic Resilience - The U.S. economy is perceived to be declining, but underlying data suggests it remains robust, with several key indicators still strong [1][4] - U.S. consumer spending is a major driver of the global economy, accounting for approximately 68% of GDP with a real growth rate of 2.1% expected in 2025 [3][4] - The trade deficit, while seemingly negative, reflects borrowing for consumption, which enhances living standards and stimulates global trade [4][12] Group 2: Dollar Dominance - The U.S. dollar maintains a dominant position in global trade, with over 58% of foreign exchange reserves held in dollars and 88% of global foreign exchange transactions conducted in dollars [7][8] - The dollar's status is bolstered by the credibility of the U.S. financial system and its use in oil pricing, ensuring its continued relevance despite discussions of de-dollarization [8][12] - The dollar's strength is evident as it remains the preferred currency for international payments, with a significant share of global trade invoices denominated in dollars [7][8] Group 3: Corporate Influence - U.S. companies, particularly in technology, hold significant power in the global supply chain, with major firms like Apple and Microsoft leading in market capitalization and innovation [11][12] - The U.S. corporate sector is characterized by strong investment in technology and research, positioning it as a leader in AI and other advanced industries [11][12] - The presence of U.S. military bases worldwide provides a stable environment for American companies, enhancing their global operational security [12][14] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite challenges, the U.S. economy is projected to grow by 1.8% in 2025, outpacing many developed economies [14] - The advantages of the U.S. economy are the result of decades of strategic positioning, including trade deficits that provide access to cheaper goods and the dollar's financial dominance [14] - The resilience of the U.S. economy suggests it can withstand global slowdowns, with ongoing strength in consumer spending and corporate investment [14]