贵金属周报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 美白银交割风险再现，银价再创新高 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格震荡上行，国际金价再度站上4250美元/ 盎司，白银价格在上周五再创历史新高，国际银价因COMEX 白银交割风险上攻至57美元/盎司上方，再创历史新高， 国内白银价格也再创新高，站上13000元/千克。上周四国 内铂、钯期货上市首日波动剧烈，第二个交易日波动收窄。 ⚫ 近期，越来越多的美联储官员发布言论纷纷支持12月降 息。美联储主席选拔进入最后阶段，贝森特称，特朗普预 计将在圣诞假期前决定下一任美联储主席人选。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Gold showed a fluctuating upward trend, while silver broke through new highs. The gold-silver ratio dropped from 83.1 to 78.2, the 10-year TIPS rose to 1.79%, the 10-year nominal interest rate fell to 4.02% (2-year 3.47%), and the US dollar index was 99.4. The short - term "bottom - fishing" value of gold and silver was recognized, and the new high of silver within the year was expected. The rhythm of silver next week is crucial, and it depends on whether there is an unexpected release of invisible inventory under the good macro - sentiment and fundamentals. Gold's game point lies in the new Fed Chairman candidate, with a lack of driving force at the end of the year [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Transaction (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spread** - Gold: The spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to - 37.85 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - 32.5 US dollars per ounce [8][9]. - Silver: The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to - 0.688 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - 0.705 US dollars per ounce [12]. - **Domestic Spot - Futures Spread** - Gold: This week, the gold spot - futures spread was - 6.51 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16]. - Silver: This week, the silver spot - futures spread was 58 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [19]. - **Inter - month Spread** - Gold: This week, the gold inter - month spread was 8.66 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. - Silver: This week, the silver inter - month spread was 70 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [28]. - **Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost** - Buying TD and shorting Shanghai gold: The total cost was 28.17 yuan per gram [31]. - Buying December Shanghai gold and shorting June Shanghai gold: The total cost was - 7.76 yuan per gram [32]. - Buying TD and shorting Shanghai silver: The total cost was 26.54 yuan per kilogram [33]. - Buying December Shanghai silver and shorting June Shanghai silver: The total cost was 176.90 yuan per kilogram [34]. - **SGE Spot Deferred Fee Payment Direction** - Gold was mainly paid from short to long, indicating strong receiving power; silver was mainly paid from long to short, indicating strong delivery power [35]. - **Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio** - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 18 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 49.8% [37]. - COMEX silver inventory decreased by 159 tons to 14,207 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 30.3% [39]. - Gold futures inventory increased by 0.45 tons to 90 tons, silver futures inventory increased by 39 tons to 558 tons, and SGE silver inventory decreased by 10 tons to 715 tons [41]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions** - COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long positions in gold and silver both decreased slightly [43]. - **ETF Positions** - Gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 6 tons [49]. - Silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 352 tons [51]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio** - This week, the gold - silver ratio dropped from 83 to 78.2 [53]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates** - The 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.22%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 5.85% [56]. Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates** - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [61]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance** - Data on US PCE, core PCE, retail and food service sales were presented, but no specific conclusions were drawn [67][68]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance** - Data on US non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, labor participation rate, unemployment rate, average weekly working hours, and average hourly wage were presented, but no specific conclusions were drawn [70][71][72]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions** - Not elaborated in detail in the content - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index** - Not elaborated in detail in the content - **Fed Rate - cut Probability** - Not elaborated in detail in the content

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is trading steadily above $4150, with the core driver being the strong consolidation pattern before the December policy path is finalized. The overall situation is in a "strong consolidation - waiting for a catalyst" phase [1]. - The continuous strengthening of the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year is the core factor for gold to maintain a narrow - range consolidation above $4150. Although the initial jobless claims and durable goods orders in the US are generally strong, they do not change the market's judgment on the December interest rate cut. The weak rebound of the US dollar and the low - level long - term US Treasury yields keep the downward trend of real interest rates stable, providing a clearer medium - term support for gold. In the context of thin holiday liquidity, the market shows the characteristics of "weak pullback and strong support" [3]. - If the December FOMC meeting continues the loose path, the gold price is expected to further break through $4200 and approach the previous high range again [3]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Key Information - Multiple US policymakers pointed out in public speeches that the slowdown in employment and the decline in inflation will continue to affect the policy direction, and they did not rule out the possibility of further interest rate cuts in December [2]. - European economic officials said that the eurozone needs to speed up internal capital expenditure and industrial chain adjustment to reduce its structural dependence on external demand, and the EU is studying a new round of industrial and trade coordination plan [2]. - Ukraine and Russia have carried out multiple rounds of communication on border security and infrastructure protection, and Russia reiterated the need to establish a verifiable mechanism for security arrangements to promote subsequent discussions [2]. - As of the week ended November 22, the number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped to 216,000, the lowest since April this year; the number of continued claims was 1.96 million; the four - week average of initial claims dropped to 223,800 [2]. - In September, non - defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft increased by 0.9%, orders excluding transportation equipment increased by 0.6%, and orders excluding defense increased by 0.1%. The overall durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5%, with the previous value revised up to 3%, and multiple manufacturing sub - items continued to show signs of recovery [2]. 2. Price Logic - Gold maintains a narrow - range consolidation above $4150, mainly due to the continuous strengthening of the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year. The strength of initial jobless claims and durable goods orders does not change the market's judgment on the December interest rate cut. The weak rebound of the US dollar and the low - level long - term US Treasury yields keep the downward trend of real interest rates stable, providing a clearer medium - term support for gold. In the context of thin holiday liquidity, the market shows the characteristics of "weak pullback and strong support" [3]. - The stable ETF holdings and continuous central bank gold purchases form a solid bottom for the price. Although there is still short - term technical overbought pressure, the trend momentum is gradually accumulating [3]. 3. Outlook - The weekly range for London gold is maintained at [4030 - 4200], and for London silver at [50 - 55] [4]. 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index includes special indices and sector indices. Among the special indices, the commodity index is 2241.06, up 0.12%; the commodity 20 index is 2543.53, up 0.04%; the industrial products index is 2200.67, up 0.03%; the PPI commodity index is 1336.40, down 0.13% [46]. - For the precious metals index on November 26, 2025, the current value is 3370.94, with a daily increase of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 1.28%, a 1 - month increase of 4.87%, and a year - to - date increase of 52.36% [47].

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【11月24日纽约尾盘多类贵金属期货价格有涨有跌】11月25日消息，周一纽约尾盘，现货黄金涨1.8%， 报4138.26美元/盎司，13:22微跌至4040.25美元刷新日低后持续上涨。COMEX黄金期货涨1.44%，报 4138.00美元/盎司，日内交投区间为4036.40 - 4138.20美元。现货白银涨2.69%，报51.3688美元/盎司， COMEX白银期货涨2.53%，报51.175美元/盎司。COMEX铜期货跌0.25%，报5.0025美元/磅，欧股开盘 以来呈V形走势。现货铂金涨1.86%，报1549.95美元/盎司，现货钯金涨0.90%，报1392.89美元/盎司。 和讯猎报 11.25 06:37:45 周= 黄金白银等贵金属: 11.24纽约尾盘涨 跌不一 扫码查看原文 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 【11月24日纽约尾盘多类贵金属期货价格有涨有 跌】 11月25日消息,周一纽约尾盘,现货黄金涨 1.8%,报4138.26美元/盎司,13:22微跌至4040.25 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to experience high - level fluctuations, while silver's decline is catalyzed by its risk - asset attributes. The short - term "bottom - fishing" value of gold and silver exists, but it still awaits drivers and catalysts. Gold's current adjustment is considered a monthly - scale jump, and silver is expected to reach a new high this year based on domestic and foreign spot contradictions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Positions) - **Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spread** - For gold, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to $1.479 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was $22.4 per ounce [9]. - For silver, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to $0.329 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was $0.285 per ounce [12]. - **Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spread** - The domestic gold spot - futures price spread was - 4.26 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16]. - The domestic silver spot - futures price spread was 17 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [19]. - **Inter - month Price Spread** - The gold inter - month price spread was 7.14 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. - The silver inter - month price spread was 63 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [27]. - **Cost of Long - Short Spread Arbitrage in Near - and Far - month Contracts** - For gold, the cost of buying TD and short - selling Shanghai gold futures in near - and far - month contracts was calculated, with a total cost of 27.93 yuan per gram for buying TD and short - selling Shanghai gold futures in one case, and - 7.43 yuan per gram in another case [30][31]. - For silver, the cost of buying TD and short - selling Shanghai silver futures in near - and far - month contracts was calculated, with a total cost of 24.97 yuan per kilogram for one case and 167.53 yuan per kilogram for another case [32][33]. - **Delivery Direction of Deferred Fees for Gold and Silver Spot at Shanghai Gold Exchange** - This week, the gold deferred fee was mainly paid from longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power, while the silver deferred fee was mainly paid from shorts to longs, indicating strong receiving power [34]. - **Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio** - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 19 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.5% [36]. - COMEX silver inventory decreased by 465 tons to 14,329 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.8% [38]. - The gold futures inventory remained unchanged, the silver futures inventory decreased by 57 tons to 519 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 90 tons to 774 tons [41]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions in Gold and Silver** - This week, the non - commercial net - long position in COMEX gold decreased slightly, and the non - commercial net - long position in silver decreased slightly [43]. - **ETF Positions** - The inventory of the gold SPDR ETF decreased by 8.36 tons [49]. - The inventory of the silver SLV ETF increased by 39.5 tons [51]. - **Gold - to - Silver Ratio** - This week, the gold - to - silver ratio rose from 78.4 last week to 83 [54]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates** - This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.13%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 5.6% [57]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates** - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates returned, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance** - No specific summary content was provided in the text, but relevant data trends were presented in the figures [67]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance** - No specific summary content was provided in the text, but relevant data trends were presented in the figures [70]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions** - No specific content was provided in the text. - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index** - No specific content was provided in the text. - **Probability of Fed Rate Cuts** - No specific content was provided in the text.

Report Overview - Report Title: Gold and Silver Weekly Report [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Liu Yuxuan [2] - Date: November 16, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Gold: There is a slight increase in market risk aversion due to geopolitical issues such as the Taiwan Strait situation. The release of backlogged economic data after the end of the US government shutdown may affect the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of these factors on gold prices [3]. - Silver: Although there is some pressure for silver to break through the previous high, it is only a matter of time to break through new highs. It is advisable to pay attention to the entry opportunities after this round of corrections [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Directory 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - **Price Performance** - This week, London gold rose 1.93%, and London silver rose 6.81%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 82.1 to 78.4. The 10 - year TIPS rose to 1.86%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.14% (2 - year 3.62%), and the US dollar index was 99.28 [3]. - Various gold and silver futures and spot prices also showed different degrees of changes, such as the 7.55% increase in the weekly price of Shanghai Silver 2512 [4]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Overseas Spread**: The spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to - 2.241 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was 2.1 dollars per ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to 0.117 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was 0.58 dollars per ounce [9][12]. - **Domestic Spread**: The gold futures - spot spread was - 5.22 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was - 25 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.92 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 67 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16][19][23][28]. - **Inventory and Position Analysis** - **COMEX Inventory**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10 tons, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 52.1%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 138 tons to 14,795 tons, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 32.8% [37][39]. - **Futures and Exchange Inventory**: Gold futures inventory increased by 0.81 tons, silver futures inventory decreased by 46 tons to 576 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 82 tons to 822 tons [41]. - **CFTC Position**: This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, while that of silver decreased slightly [43]. - **ETF Position**: The inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 3.65 tons, and the inventory of the silver SLV ETF increased by 129 tons [49][51]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold - **Relationship with Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales**: Data on US PCE and core PCE year - on - year changes are presented, which can reflect the inflation situation and may affect gold prices [68]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: Information on indicators such as US non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, and unemployment rates is provided, which are important factors affecting the Fed's monetary policy and gold prices [70][72][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the trading volume of commodity options increased slightly, with only the trading volume of the precious metals sector decreasing. Most varieties are in a volatility - reduction cycle, and it is advisable to move short - option positions to far - month contracts in advance to avoid end - of - contract risks [4]. - The options of the black sector showed increased volatility and trading volume. Affected by the decline in iron ore futures prices, the implied volatility of black options has risen. The previous policy - driven boost has basically been realized, and the market trading logic has returned to fundamentals. There is a lack of new macro - drivers, and the upward momentum of prices has been weakened. The implied volatility still has room to rise, and it is advisable to buy a bearish put spread portfolio to hedge against the downward market [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of commodity options increased slightly last week, with the precious metals sector being the only one with a decline in trading volume. Energy and chemical products such as short - fiber, PTA, methanol, glass, crude oil, caustic soda, soda ash, and bottle chips are about to expire on Wednesday. Most varieties are in a volatility - reduction cycle [4]. - The options of the black sector showed increased volatility and trading volume. The implied volatility of black options has risen due to the decline in iron ore futures prices. The previous policy - driven boost has basically been realized, and the market trading logic has returned to fundamentals [4]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The table shows the quantitative data of commodity options, including the flat - value volatility, 60 - day quantile, Skew, and 60 - day quantile of various varieties such as corn, soybean meal, and crude oil [12]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.54 Option Data of Each Variety - For each variety (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), the data includes the closing price, trading volume, open interest, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, flat - value volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and Skew of the main contract, secondary - main contract, and all contracts [13][14][15] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, London gold fell 0.43%, and London silver fell 0.54%. The gold - silver ratio rose from 81.7 the previous week to 82.1. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.83%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.11% (2 - year 3.55%), and the US dollar index was 99.54. The precious metals market was in a volatile state with unclear drivers, and the upcoming December FOMC meeting of the Fed is facing a difficult decision - making situation in an information vacuum. The government shutdown is a key factor, and the swing between risk - off and risk - on will determine the market trend next week [6]. - Gold is in a high - level adjustment, and silver's volatility is determined by market risk preference. The strength - weakness analysis shows that gold is neutral, and silver is neutral. The price ranges are 890 - 950 yuan/gram for gold and 11000 - 11700 yuan/kilogram for silver [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Spread - Gold: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold main contract fell to - 7.51 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was 12.6 US dollars/ounce [12]. - Silver: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver main contract rose to 0.101 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was - 0.21 US dollars/ounce [15]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Spread - Gold: This week, the gold spot - futures spread was - 3.62 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [19]. - Silver: This week, the silver spot - futures spread was - 4 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. 3.1.3 Monthly Spread - Gold: This week, the gold monthly spread was 7.56 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [28]. - Silver: This week, the silver monthly spread was 54 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [31]. 3.1.4 Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - For gold (buy TD and sell Shanghai gold, buy Shanghai gold December and sell June), the total costs are 2.91 yuan/gram and 15.17 yuan/gram respectively [34][35]. - For silver (buy TD and sell Shanghai silver, buy Shanghai silver December and sell June), the total costs are 37.53 yuan/kilogram and 178.15 yuan/kilogram respectively [36][37]. 3.1.5 Deferred Fee Payment Direction - This week, in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, gold's deferred fee was mainly paid from long to short, indicating strong delivery power, while silver's was mainly paid from short to long, indicating strong receiving power [38]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - Inventory Ratio - Gold: This week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.44 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.4%. Gold futures inventory increased by 1.8 tons [40][44]. - Silver: This week, COMEX silver inventory decreased by 72.25 tons to 14993 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 34%. Silver futures inventory decreased to 42 tons, and the SGE silver inventory decreased by 24 tons to 830 tons [42][44]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - Commercial Position - This week, COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long position in gold increased slightly, while that in silver decreased slightly [46]. 3.1.8 ETF Position - Gold: This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 1.71 tons [52]. - Silver: This week, the silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 101.18 tons [54]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio rose from 81.7 last week to 82.1 [56]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rate - This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.13%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 4.7% [58]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rate - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rate recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [63].

Group 1 - International precious metal futures experienced a general decline, with COMEX gold futures dropping by 1.81% to $3941.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures falling by 2.40% to $46.90 per ounce [1] - The surge in gold prices has been noted to exceed the performance driven by large tech stocks in the Nasdaq, indicating a potential bubble behavior characterized by self-reinforcing momentum [1] - There is a concern that any panic from missed opportunities could amplify market excitement, even in response to marginal or unrelated events [1] Group 2 - Despite some opinions labeling the current rise in gold prices as a bubble, there are logical reasons for the increase, including changes in the monetary and financial system, a weak dollar, and gold's role as a monetary anchor and inflation hedge [4]

Group 1 - The spot gold price accelerated its decline, breaking below $3940 per ounce, with a daily drop of 1.63% [1][2] - The spot silver price also fell over 2%, currently reported at $47.016 per ounce [1] - In the futures market, the main contracts for precious metals saw short-term declines, with Shanghai gold down 1.57%, currently at 904.74 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver dropping over 2%, currently at 11113 yuan per kilogram [4] Group 2 - The highest price for spot gold reached $4005.940, while the lowest was $3933.415 [2] - The trading volume for spot gold was noted at 0, indicating a lack of significant trading activity during this period [2] - The average price for the day was not specified, but the market showed a consistent downward trend [2]