Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant reversal, with silver futures dropping sharply after initially surpassing $80 per ounce, closing down nearly 7% near the $70 mark, while gold prices fell over 4% [3][12]. Market Analysis - The market adjustment was attributed to several factors, including technical indicator corrections, profit-taking by investors, and policy changes from exchanges [4][13]. - Following a 10% increase on the previous Friday, silver futures saw a dramatic decline of 15% from peak to trough, marking the largest intraday volatility since August 2020 [5][14]. - Analysts noted that the recent price movements deviated significantly from moving averages, indicating a need for market correction due to liquidity issues [5][14]. - The sharp price drop was also linked to profit-taking and year-end tax-related selling by investors, despite silver's year-to-date gain exceeding 140% [5][14]. Exchange Policy Impact - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME) announcement to raise margin requirements for various metal futures by over 10% was seen as a key factor in the market's downturn [7][15]. - The initial margin for silver futures expiring in March 2026 was increased to $25,000, which historically has led to significant price declines in the past [7][16]. Future Outlook - The surge in precious metals this year is supported by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, active gold purchases by central banks, and ongoing trends of "de-dollarization" [8][17]. - Silver is increasingly viewed as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions and rising U.S. fiscal deficits, with structural growth in demand driven by industrial applications, particularly in electric vehicles and solar panels [8][17]. - Institutions remain optimistic about the market outlook, with JPMorgan predicting gold prices could reach $5,000 by the end of 2026, and a significant increase in quarterly gold purchases by central banks and retail investors [9][18]. - A survey indicated that 57% of respondents expect silver prices to exceed $100 per ounce next year, with 27% anticipating prices between $80 and $100 per ounce by 2026 [9][18]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market is currently facing a severe supply shortage, compounded by high demand, which is expected to drive prices higher [10][19]. - Analysts emphasize that the current market has a significant amount of paper trading and positions that require adequate physical silver supply to fulfill, which is currently lacking [9][18].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant reversal, with silver futures prices dropping sharply after reaching a record high, influenced by profit-taking, technical corrections, and changes in exchange policies [3][4][5]. Market Reaction - Silver futures initially surged over 10% before plummeting 15%, marking the largest daily volatility since August 2020 [5]. - Gold prices also fell over 4%, losing key support levels of $4500 and $4400 [3][6]. Factors Behind the Market Shift - Technical indicators showed a severe deviation from moving averages, prompting a need for correction [6]. - Profit-taking and year-end tax-related selling were identified as major factors suppressing silver's price after a 140% increase throughout the year [6][7]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's decision to raise margin requirements for various metals, including silver, was seen as a critical trigger for the market drop [7]. Future Outlook - The precious metals market is supported by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy and increasing demand for silver in industrial applications, particularly in electric vehicles and solar panels [9][10]. - Analysts remain optimistic about the market, with predictions of gold prices reaching $5000 by the end of 2026 and a significant increase in gold purchases by central banks and retail investors [11]. - A survey indicated that 57% of respondents expect silver prices to exceed $100 per ounce next year, with a substantial portion anticipating prices between $80 and $100 per ounce by 2026 [11][12].

12月29日，在近期贵金属市场的剧烈波动中，NCE平台持续关注黄金与白银价格的历史性突破。当前黄 金和白银双双刷新纪录，显示出资金情绪高度集中，尤其是白银短期内的涨幅已经远超其长期平均波动 区间，这种加速式上涨本身就值得市场参与者保持冷静审视。 从技术层面来看，白银价格走势已明显呈现出近乎垂直的上升形态。一般观点认为，这类"抛物线行 情"往往难以长期维持，更像是行情进入后半程的典型特征。与此同时，白银RSI数值攀升至90以上，黄 金RSI也逼近历史极值区间，NCE平台表示，这在过往市场周期中通常对应着高位震荡甚至快速回调的 阶段。 回顾历史数据可以发现，类似的技术信号在上世纪80年代曾出现过。当年无论是白银还是黄金，在RSI 触及极端高位后，都经历了幅度较大的价格修正。这并不意味着当前价格必然重演相同路径，但历史对 投资者情绪和行为的启示依然具有参考价值。 值得注意的是，NCE平台观察到，当前贵金属行情已被更广泛的大众媒体所关注。一般观点认为，当市 场故事从专业投资圈扩散至普通公众时，往往意味着交易结构趋于拥挤，尤其是散户力量集中在同一方 向，市场对利好消息的敏感度反而可能下降。 尽管短期风险信号密集出现，但 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Gold's macro - driving force is mild, with limited upward price strength, and the gold - silver ratio will not return in the short term [3] - Silver prices are expected to continue rising, with the target price in Q1 2026 at 90 - 100 US dollars per ounce. Attention should also be paid to the callback risk at the daily - line level. There may be opportunities for long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spread - This week, the spread between London spot gold and COMEX gold主力 fell to - 29.495 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - 15.8 US dollars per ounce [9] - This week, the spread between London spot silver and COMEX silver主力 rose to - 0.346 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - 0.835 US dollars per ounce [15] 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spread - This week, the domestic gold spot - futures price spread was - 7.05 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [21] - This week, the domestic silver spot - futures price spread was 150 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [24] 3.1.3 Inter - month Price Spread - This week, the inter - month price spread of gold was 7.7 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [28] - This week, the inter - month price spread of silver was 50 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [32] 3.1.4 Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - The total cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying TD and shorting Shanghai gold was 27.89 yuan per gram [35] - The total cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying December Shanghai gold and shorting June Shanghai gold was 7.87 yuan per gram [36] - The total cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying TD and shorting Shanghai silver was 493.55 yuan per kilogram [37] - The total cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying December Shanghai silver and shorting June Shanghai silver was - 136.40 yuan per kilogram [38] 3.1.5 Deferred Fee Payment Direction - This week, the gold deferred fee in the Shanghai Gold Exchange was mainly paid by longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power; the silver deferred fee was mainly paid by shorts to longs, indicating strong receiving power [39] 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the COMEX gold inventory increased by 3.76 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 53.6% [41] - This week, the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 107 tons to 13,988 tons, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 28.4% [43] - This week, the gold futures inventory increased by 5.98 tons, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 80 tons to 819 tons [47] 3.1.7 CFTC Non - commercial Positions - This week, the non - commercial net long position of gold in COMEX CFTC increased slightly, while that of silver decreased slightly [49] 3.1.8 ETF Positions - This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 18.59 tons, and the domestic gold ETF increased by 2.1 tons [52] - This week, the inventory of the silver SLV ETF increased by 372 tons [56] 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio fell from 68.7 in the previous week to 64.9 [59] 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates - This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.16%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 7.29% [61] 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rates - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [66] 3.2.2 Inflation and Retail Sales Performance - The report presents data on US PCE, core PCE, retail and food service sales year - on - year and month - on - month [72][73] 3.2.3 Non - farm Employment Performance - The report shows data on US new non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, labor force participation rate, unemployment rate, average weekly working hours, and average hourly wage year - on - year [75][76][77] 3.2.4 Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 3.2.5 Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 3.2.6 Fed Rate - cut Probability - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market has experienced a historic surge, with significant price increases in gold and silver, driven by rising demand for safe-haven assets [1][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - Gold prices have soared over 70% this year, potentially marking the largest annual increase since 1979 [7]. - Silver prices have risen more than 170% year-to-date, with March silver futures recently surpassing $79 per ounce [5][7]. - The most actively traded February 2026 gold futures reached $4,581.30 per ounce, setting a new record [5]. Group 2: Market Indicators - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for silver is at 93.86, the highest since January 1980, indicating potential overbought conditions [5]. - The RSI for gold futures reached a historical high of 95.94, suggesting a similar overbought scenario [5]. - Reports from various financial institutions suggest a continued trend of using gold to hedge against risks associated with dollar-denominated assets, with expectations for further price increases by 2026 [7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Recommendations - Analysts caution that both gold and silver may face short-term risks despite the bullish outlook for the medium term [7]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has advised investors to manage risk and control positions wisely [7]. - A report from Dongfang Securities indicates that while gold prices may continue to rise steadily, silver prices are likely to experience significant short-term volatility [7].

Group 1 - The international gold and silver prices reached new highs on the 26th, with gold futures for February 2026 hitting $4581.30 per ounce and silver futures surpassing $79 per ounce, approaching $80 [2] - The relative strength index (RSI) for silver is at 93.86, the highest since January 1980, indicating potential market overextension, as readings above 70 suggest a possible correction [2] - Gold's RSI also reached a historical high of 95.94, with the second-highest value recorded in January 1980 at 94.69 [2] Group 2 - Gold prices have surged over 70% this year, potentially marking the largest annual increase since 1979, while silver prices have risen more than 170% [3] - Platinum futures recently soared to a historical high, breaking the $2300 per ounce mark due to supply constraints and geopolitical tensions, alongside a weakening dollar [3] - Copper prices continue to rise, with a nearly 4% increase on the 26th, reaching $5.7855 per pound, as investors anticipate tighter global copper supply by 2026 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Precious metal prices showed a differentiation. Shanghai gold futures contracts fluctuated slightly at high levels, while Shanghai silver futures contracts rose by over 4% overnight, hitting a new record high. In the short - term, the risk of high - level volatility in silver increased, but in the quarterly level, the long logic of gold and silver remained smooth. Gold had a relatively high price safety margin as its historical volatility was at the end - of - year low [1]. - The core factors driving the upward movement of gold prices, such as geopolitical factors, the weakening of the US dollar, continuous central bank gold purchases, and the expectation of US interest rate cuts in the next year, remained unchanged. The expectation of loose liquidity was the core logic driving gold up in the quarterly level. The period from the nomination to the assumption of office of the new Fed chair was considered the most favorable time for trading liquidity expectations and Fed independence risks. Geopolitical tensions led to active safe - haven demand [6]. - In the short - term, silver prices might face increased volatility after a continuous sharp rise. In the long - term, the core drivers of silver price increases remained unchanged, and the upward elasticity of silver was expected to be further released in 2026. The silver spot structural shortage problem might still recur in the first quarter. The gold - silver ratio was expected to decline [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar broke through the 7.0 mark, reaching 6.9985 at the highest, the first time since September 2024. The offshore RMB had appreciated by 4.6% against the US dollar this year, and the on - shore RMB was approaching the 7 mark, with an annual appreciation of 4% [2]. - On December 25, the Ukrainian Air Force launched a missile attack on a Russian refinery in Rostov Oblast, which was one of the largest oil product suppliers in southern Russia with a storage tank capacity of over 210,000 cubic meters [2]. - A US official said on December 24 that the White House had ordered the US military to focus on the "blockade" of Venezuelan oil for at least the next two months, preferring economic pressure over military action [2]. - On December 24, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced a 20 - point draft of the latest Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", but the core territorial issues remained unresolved [2]. - On December 25, Japanese Prime Minister Kaoi Sanae announced a 2026 fiscal year budget of 122.3 trillion yen (about 5.5 trillion RMB), a 6.3% increase from 2025, the highest in Japanese history. The government planned to issue about 29.6 trillion yen in new bonds to support this large - scale expenditure [3]. - Guotou Silver LOF announced that the fund would be suspended from trading from the opening on December 26, 2025, to 10:30 and resume trading at 10:30. If the premium rate of the secondary market trading price did not decline effectively, the fund had the right to apply for temporary suspension or extended suspension to warn the market [3]. 3.2 Price Logic - Gold: After hitting a record high, Shanghai gold futures adjusted slightly, possibly due to some traders taking profits before the New Year. The core factors driving gold prices up remained, and the expectation of loose liquidity was the main driver in the quarterly level. The period around the Fed chair nomination was favorable for related trading. Geopolitical tensions maintained active safe - haven demand [6]. - Silver: Shanghai silver futures rose by over 4% overnight, hitting a new record high. In the short - term, there was a risk of increased volatility, and investors needed to manage their positions. In the long - term, the core drivers of price increases remained unchanged, and in 2026, silver was expected to have greater upward elasticity and the gold - silver ratio might decline. The silver spot structural shortage problem might still occur in the first quarter [7]. 3.3 Outlook - In the short - term, the price range of London gold was expected to be between 4200 and 4550 US dollars per ounce, and that of London silver between 60 and 75 US dollars per ounce [8]. 3.4 Commodity Index - On December 25, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index was 2327.86, down 0.14%; the commodity 20 index was 2669.31, down 0.12%; the industrial products index was 2254.18, down 0.17% [49]. - The precious metals index was 3927.63 on December 25, 2025, with a daily decline of 0.77%, a 5 - day increase of 6.01%, a one - month increase of 16.51%, and a year - to - date increase of 77.53% [51].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant price increases, particularly in silver, driven by supply constraints and strong demand from various industries, including solar energy and AI [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 24, COMEX gold reached $4,522 per ounce, and London gold was at $4,493 per ounce, with gold prices increasing over 71% year-to-date [1][5]. - COMEX and London silver prices both surpassed $72 per ounce, with silver prices up nearly 150% year-to-date [1][5]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai silver prices surged over 8% in a single day, closing at 17,609.00 yuan per kilogram, marking a year-to-date increase of over 130% [1][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to a combination of short-term trading dynamics and long-term fundamental factors, including tight physical supply and historically low inventory levels [1][5]. - The silver supply growth rate is only 2% to 3% annually, while demand from the photovoltaic industry accounts for 55% of industrial silver usage, alongside increasing demand from AI servers and electric vehicles [1][5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Indicators - The gold-silver ratio has contracted to 62:1, indicating that silver has been undervalued compared to gold, with historical ratios typically ranging from 40:1 to 60:1 [6][7]. - If the gold-silver ratio returns to 50:1, silver could rise to $77 per ounce, representing an 11% increase from current levels, or to $86 per ounce if gold prices remain stable, indicating a potential 25% upside [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold and silver prices, with COMEX gold futures reaching a new high of $4503 per ounce and silver prices also hitting a record of $69.45 per ounce, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, global central bank gold purchases, heightened geopolitical risks, and a weakening dollar [1][2]. - Gold prices have increased by over 67% year-to-date, with analysts from JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Metals Focus predicting that gold could reach $5000 per ounce by 2026, while domestic analysts expect short-term fluctuations around the $4400 per ounce mark [1]. - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to the Federal Reserve's continued accommodative policies, signaling a potential restart of quantitative easing (QE), alongside tight supply conditions in the silver market [2]. Group 2 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced new regulations for silver futures trading, limiting the maximum number of contracts for non-futures company members and certain foreign participants to 10,000 contracts per day starting December 24, 2025 [3]. - Transaction fees for silver futures have been adjusted, with the fee for the AG2602 contract set at 0.025% of the transaction amount for day trades starting December 24, 2025 [4]. - The fee for the AG2604 contract has been set at 0.005% of the transaction amount for day trades, effective from the same date [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near the end - of - year important festivals in Europe and America, with the release of dovish signals by Fed officials, large - scale short positions in COMEX silver and delivery demand exacerbating spot supply shortages, and institutional pre - allocation of metal assets, precious metal prices are pushed up. In the day session on December 22, the Shanghai silver main contract AG2602 rose by more than 6%, platinum and palladium futures main 06 contracts hit the 7% daily limit in the morning, the international gold price exceeded the historical high since October 20, and the Shanghai gold main contract AU2602 rose by more than 2% and returned above 1000 yuan/gram [1] - In the short - term, without clear negative factors, the precious metal market will remain strong, but during the end - of - year holiday in the European and American markets, trading liquidity will weaken, which may further amplify market fluctuations, and investors need to set reasonable stop - loss and take - profit levels [11] Summary by Relevant Catalog Driving Analysis 1: US Employment and Inflation Data Slowdown Support Fed's Loose Policy, Geopolitical Conflicts Stimulate Precious Metals to Strengthen - US economic data shows that the labor market has a downward risk and the inflation rebound momentum slows down. The unemployment rate in November soared to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, and the average monthly new non - farm employment in the second half of this year was only 22,800. The core CPI in November fell to 2.6%, weaker than expected and the lowest since March 2021. The Fed may further loosen monetary policy, and the market predicts about 3 interest rate cuts in 2026 [2] - Geopolitical conflicts such as the possible Israeli military strike on Iran, the slow progress of the "peace plan" in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the US blockade on Venezuela continue to increase investors' risk - aversion demand, supporting the precious metal market [4] Driving Analysis 2: The Performance of the COMEX Silver Delivery Month and the Persistent Tightness of Circulating Inventory - From December to now, the COMEX silver futures market has a physical delivery demand of more than 60 million ounces in a single month, accounting for nearly 50% of the total registered warehouse inventory of 128 million ounces. The short position is as high as 990 million ounces. The shortage of physical inventory forces some shorts to close positions or hedge in the spot market, amplifying the upward momentum of silver prices [5] - There is a strong expected demand for silver in the electric vehicle and AI data center fields. The World Silver Association predicts that the compound annual growth rate of silver demand in the global automotive industry will be about 3.4% from 2025 - 2031, and the potential annual silver consumption of silver - carbon solid - state batteries in the next few years can reach thousands of tons. More countries may increase strategic silver reserves [5] Driving Analysis 3: Favorable Supply - Demand Fundamentals and Continuous Capital Inflow into the Platinum and Palladium Markets - The strong prices of platinum and palladium are due to the favorable supply - demand fundamentals, and factors such as high trading enthusiasm, low margin cost, and small tradable volume amplify price fluctuations. In the absence of more guiding data, the upward logic of platinum and palladium prices will continue to strengthen [9] Outlook for the Future Market - With global mainstream institutions continuously raising precious metal price forecasts, some investors are pre - allocating precious metals, leading to an increase in ETF and derivatives positions. The short - term market will remain strong. The potential weekly increase of silver may reach 9% (90% confidence interval), and the monthly increase can reach up to 18%. The potential increase of gold and platinum and palladium is relatively small [11]