企业预期保持乐观 "1月份，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，加之市场有效需求仍显不足，制造业景气水平较上月下 降。"国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧说。 从供需两端看，生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张；新订单指数为49.2%，市场需 求有所回落。 国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会1月31日发布数据显示，2026年1月份，制造业采购 经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.3%、49.4%和49.8%，比上月 下降0.8个、0.8个和0.9个百分点，经济景气水平有所回落。 1月份，制造业生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，继续高于临界点。农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料精制 茶等行业生产经营活动预期指数连续两个月位于56.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对近期行业发展信 心较强。 文韬认为，1月份，受季节性因素和外部因素影响，制造业运行有所波动，但市场需求有趋稳迹象，生 产活动保持扩张，市场价格联动上升，产业结构继续优化，制造业后市回稳运行具备基础。预计2月 份，受春节假期影响，制造业运行或继续有所放缓。随着春节过后经济社会回归正常运行，制造业将继 续 ...

国家统计局服务业调查中心企业景气处处长 霍丽慧：从行业来看，农副食品加工、铁路、船舶、航空航天设备等行业的生产指数和新订单指数都高于 56%，相关行业产需释放较快。 从非制造业情况看，2026年1月份中国非制造业商务活动指数为49.4%。 中国物流与采购联合会副会长 何辉：服务业总体还是保持比较平稳的，金融业保持在65%以上的较高景气水平。 0:00 国家统计局、中国物流与采购联合会今天（31日）发布2026年1月份中国采购经理指数。数据显示，1月我国制造业市场需求有所收紧，但企业生产保持扩张 态势，产业结构继续优化；服务业运行态势相对稳定，企业预期持续向好。 2026年1月份中国制造业采购经理指数为49.3%。1月份装备制造业采购经理指数为50.1%，高技术制造业采购经理指数为52%，装备制造业和高技术制造业稳 中向好发展，制造业产业结构持续优化。 金融业支持实体经济力度保持强劲、新动能发展态势稳健、部分消费相关服务业表现良好成为支撑服务业稳定的主要因素。 1月份，在元旦假期消费带动下，部分消费相关行业表现良好。铁路运输业商务活动指数保持在53%以上的较高水平，景区服务业商务活动指数较上月上 升，升至51% ...

证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 31 日 [Table_Title] 地缘问题延续促使全球多数市场震荡较多 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点: 由于一些地区地缘问题的延续未决， 本周全球多数市场震荡。本周美股科技股波动较多。虽然本周 微软出现了较大调整，目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率仍有 35.94，仍然处于高于 35 的区间。费城半导体指数市盈率上升至 47.83，逐步逼近 50 这个区间。纳斯达克指数的市盈率为 41.66，仍然处于 40 以上的区间。由于美股科技股估值偏高，叠 加特朗普关税政策的不确定性影响，美股科技指数中期仍积蓄 一定的回调压力。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率达到 40.81，较长时 间处于 40 以上区间。由于特朗普的经济、关税、外交等多方面 政策的不确定性较大，且美股估值仍然偏高，美股中金融、消 费、工业等行业里面一些偏高位资产中期维度仍存在震荡消化 的可能性。由于格陵兰岛的地缘问题尚未解决，本周欧洲多数 市场出现了明显震荡。由于欧洲经济偏疲软，欧洲多个重要市 场股指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in January fell below the growth line, indicating a decline in economic activity and a need for stronger foundational support for economic recovery [3][5]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for January is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating fluctuations in manufacturing operations [5]. - The new orders index dropped to 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points, reflecting a tightening of market demand [5]. - Seasonal factors and changes in the export environment are contributing to the slowdown in market demand, with the new export orders index at 47.8%, a decline of 1.2 percentage points [5][7]. - The production index remains in the expansion zone at 50.6%, despite a decrease of 1.1 percentage points, suggesting continued overall expansion in manufacturing [7]. - The prices of major raw materials and factory output have increased, with the purchasing price index at 56.1% and the factory price index at 50.6%, indicating an improvement in overall price levels in the manufacturing market [7]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in the construction sector [10]. - The service sector remains relatively stable, with the business activity index slightly decreasing by 0.2 percentage points, maintaining around 49.5% [10][11]. - The service industry anticipates a boost from the upcoming Spring Festival, with a business activity expectation index of 57.1%, indicating optimism for consumer-related services [10][11]. Economic Outlook - The overall economic climate is expected to be influenced by changes in export growth, the domestic real estate market, and the timing and intensity of growth-stimulating policies [8]. - There is potential for monetary policy easing in the second quarter, with fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment expected to gain momentum [8].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Overview - In January, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating fluctuations in manufacturing operations [4][5] - The new orders index for January was 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points, reflecting a tightening of market demand due to seasonal factors and changes in export environments [4][5] - The production index remained in the expansion zone at 50.6%, despite a decline of 1.1 percentage points, suggesting continued overall expansion in manufacturing production [5] Group 2: Price Levels and Economic Conditions - The purchasing price index for raw materials rose to 56.1%, and the factory price index increased to 50.6%, marking the first time in nearly 20 months that the factory price index exceeded the critical point [5] - The proportion of manufacturing enterprises reporting insufficient market demand decreased to 54.9%, down 9.4 percentage points, indicating a stabilization in market demand [5] - Analysts suggest that the overall economic climate is affected by seasonal fluctuations, high previous month bases, and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [6] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index for January was 49.4%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points, primarily due to a decrease in the construction sector [9] - The service sector showed relative stability, with the service business activity index slightly declining by 0.2 percentage points, remaining around 49.5% [10] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector rose to 57.1%, indicating an optimistic outlook, particularly for consumption-related services during the upcoming Spring Festival [10]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector in China is experiencing a decline in economic activity, as indicated by the drop in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) below the growth threshold, reflecting insufficient market demand and the need for stronger economic recovery measures [1][4][6]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for January is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating fluctuations in manufacturing operations [4]. - New orders index fell to 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points, suggesting a tightening of market demand [4]. - The production index remains in the expansion zone at 50.6%, but has decreased by 1.1 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production growth [5]. - The prices of raw materials and finished products are rising, with the raw material purchase price index at 56.1% and the factory price index at 50.6%, marking the first time in nearly 20 months that the factory price index has risen above the critical point [5][6]. - Over 34% of manufacturing companies reported a decline in profits, highlighting concerns regarding profitability amid rising raw material costs [6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, with the construction sector experiencing a significant decline [9]. - The service sector remains relatively stable, with a slight decrease in the service business activity index to around 49.5% [10]. - The service industry shows optimistic expectations, with a business activity expectation index of 57.1%, indicating a positive outlook for the upcoming Spring Festival consumption [10].

Core Insights - The article highlights significant economic milestones in 2025, with Shandong becoming the third province in China and the first in the north to surpass a GDP of 10 trillion yuan, Beijing becoming the second city to reach a GDP of 5 trillion yuan, and Dalian emerging as the first city in Northeast China to achieve a GDP of 1 trillion yuan, reflecting a transformation in the northern region's economy [1][2][4] Group 1: Shandong's Economic Transformation - Shandong's achievement of a 10 trillion yuan GDP is characterized as a challenging "turnaround," overcoming a heavy reliance on traditional industries, which constituted 70% of its economy [1] - Since 2018, Shandong has been a pilot zone for new and old kinetic energy conversion, focusing on industrial transformation and maintaining economic growth rates above the national average since 2020 [1] - By 2025, high-tech industries in Shandong are projected to account for 55.3% of its industrial output, with advanced capacities in traditional sectors like steel and petrochemicals exceeding 40% [1] Group 2: Beijing's Quality Growth - Beijing's GDP of 5 trillion yuan is achieved through a focus on quality over quantity, driven by innovation and high-value industries, with R&D investment intensity remaining at a high level of 6% [2] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, all ten high-tech industries in Beijing surpassed the 100 billion yuan mark, with sectors like information technology and healthcare leading the way [2] - By 2025, the combined contribution of information technology services and finance to Beijing's economic growth is expected to exceed 80% [2] Group 3: Dalian's Role in Northeast Revitalization - Dalian's achievement of a 1 trillion yuan GDP is significant for the revitalization of Northeast China, leveraging traditional industries while promoting technological innovation and upgrading to high-end, green, and intelligent industries [2] - The green petrochemical industry in Dalian remains stable at around 400 billion yuan, with the new automotive sector exceeding 100 billion yuan [2] - Dalian is enhancing its role as an open gateway and international shipping center in Northeast Asia, translating its geographical advantages into competitive strengths [2] Group 4: Implications for Economic Development - The experiences of Shandong, Beijing, and Dalian illustrate that high-quality development paths are diverse and should be tailored to local conditions, encouraging other regions to explore differentiated development strategies [3] - The article emphasizes that transformation and upgrading require long-term commitment and strategic determination, as evidenced by the sustained efforts of these regions [3] - The development of these three regions contributes to a more balanced economic landscape in China, addressing the historical disparity between northern and southern economies [3][4]

2026.01.30 本文字数：2466，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 何涛 1月30日，深圳市统计局发布年度"成绩单"：2025年深圳地区生产总值38731.80亿元，按不变价格计 算，同比（下同）增长5.5%，高于全国0.5个百分点。名义增量约1930亿元，大约相当于新增一个韶关 市的经济总量。按过去三年增长趋势，2026年突破4万亿元应无悬念。 1—11月，规模以上服务业企业营业收入增长7.2%，其中，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业，租赁和 商务服务业，交通运输、仓储和邮政业营业收入分别增长10.5%、6.4%、5.1%。 站在4万亿门槛前的深圳，经济增长正呈现明显的结构性变化。分产业来看，2025年深圳第一产业增加 值28.04亿元，下降4.5%；第二产业增加值14482.54亿元，增长4.1%；第三产业增加值24221.22亿元，增 长6.3%。第三产业增速超过第二产业，成为深圳经济增长的最大牵引力。 从全年走势看，深圳经济画出了一条总体向上的曲线。一季度GDP增长5.2%，上半年增长5.1%，前三 季度增速提升至5.5%，最终全年锁定在5.5%的水平。在此过程中，工业增长作出显著贡献。规模 ...

2025年，全市规模以上工业增加值同比增长18%。制造业增加值同比增长24.2%，拉动规上工业增长 18.2个百分点。电力、热力生产和供应业增加值同比增长6.2%，拉动规上工业增长0.4个百分点。全市 15个行业大类中8个行业增加值实现增长，合计拉动规上工业增加值增长21.3个百分点。全年生产黄金 5448.3千克，同比增长13.3倍；白银241.08吨，同比增长4.4倍；铅15.41万吨，同比增长3.3倍；锌1.32万 吨，同比增长2.7倍；碳酸锂14.81万吨，同比增长26.7%；钾肥(实物量)684.05万吨，同比增长1%。工业 经济攻坚克难，提质增效态势强劲。 2025年，全市固定资产投资同比下降4.9%。民间投资同比增长62.1%。基础设施投资同比增长1.7倍，其 中，交通运输和邮政业投资同比增长2.8倍，水利、环境和公共设施服务业投资同比增长1.5倍。全年新 增入库项目90个。重点领域投资取得积极成效，为经济转型和长期发展积蓄动力。 中新网青海新闻1月30日电 (李莎莎)格尔木市统计局29日发布数据，2025年，全市经济运行持续稳中有 进、向上向好，经济总量突破500亿元大关，圆满收官"十四五"规 ...

（原标题：38731.80亿元！刚刚，深圳重磅官宣） 来源：深圳特区报 2025年深圳GDP实现38731.80亿元 同比增长5.5% 1月30日，深圳市统计局发布，根据广东省地区生产总值统一核算结果，2025年全市地区生产总值38731.80亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长 5.5%。全市经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，新动能培育壮大，经济韧性愈发凸显，城市能级和核心竞争力大幅跃升。 分产业来看，第一产业增加值28.04亿元，下降4.5%；第二产业增加值14482.54亿元，增长4.1%；第三产业增加值24221.22亿元，增长6.3%。 工业生产稳步增长 2025年，全市规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.4%。分门类看，采矿业增加值同比下降1.1%，制造业增长5.9%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应 业增长3.7%。 在主要行业大类中，通用设备制造业增长13.9%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长6.2%，专用设备制造业增长5.1%。高技术产品产量持 续快速增长，其中，3D打印设备、工业机器人、民用无人机产品产量分别增长45.1%、43.1%、40.1%。12月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.4%。 ...