Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a recovery in the leasing market for Grade A office spaces in Guangzhou during the first half of 2025, with increased inquiry and viewing activity compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The supply of Grade A office spaces in Guangzhou slowed down in Q2 2025, with only one new project delivered, leading to a total stock of 6.937 million square meters [1] - The net absorption in the city recorded 152,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%, while the vacancy rate increased by 0.9 percentage points to 19.8% [1] Group 2 - In terms of regional performance, Haizhu District's Pazhou became the most active leasing area in Q2, with a vacancy rate decreasing by 1.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 3.6 percentage points year-on-year to 23.2% [1] - The average rent for office spaces in the city decreased by 1.4% to 123.5 yuan per square meter per month, with the decline narrowing by 3.3 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] - The TMT sector led the leasing demand with a 30.2% share of the total leased area, followed by the financial sector at 16.8% and trade and retail at 16.3% [2] Group 3 - The report highlights the potential of emerging business districts, particularly Guangzhou International Financial City, where infrastructure improvements are attracting financial institutions to establish headquarters [2] - The establishment of a conducive office environment in new business districts is expected to enhance market attention and resource attraction [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm employment data for June exceeded market expectations, indicating a robust labor market, which may influence the Federal Reserve's future policy decisions [1][4][12]. Group 1: Employment Data - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 106,000 [1]. - The unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased to 4.1%, against the expected 4.3% [1][4]. - The labor participation rate fell to 62.3%, slightly below the expected 62.4% [1]. - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.8% [1]. Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is showing signs of a mild cooling trend, with private sector job growth slowing significantly to 74,000 in June, down from 134,000 in May [8]. - The government sector saw an unexpected increase of 73,000 jobs, influenced by seasonal factors, particularly in state and local government employment [8][10]. - Wage growth is also slowing, with average hourly earnings growth down to 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a potential softening of persistent inflation [8][12]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The divergence in views among Federal Reserve officials (doves vs. hawks) may lead to varied interpretations of the employment data, impacting future interest rate decisions [1][12]. - The neutral interest rate is estimated to have reached 3.5%, with the ongoing debate primarily affecting the timing of reaching this neutral rate rather than its overall shape [1][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to buy U.S. Treasuries on dips and short the U.S. dollar on rallies, as the market reacts to the strong employment data [2][13][14]. - The U.S. Treasury yield curve has flattened, with significant increases in yields across various maturities, indicating a shift in market expectations [13]. - The dollar index has shown a slight increase, but the long-term trend remains downward, influenced by various economic factors [14].

Employment Data Summary - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000[2] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2%[2] - Labor force participation rate was 62.3%, slightly below the expected and previous 62.4%[2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3% and previous 0.4%[2] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm data release, U.S. stock markets rose, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 0.8%, 1.0%, and 0.8% respectively[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6.3 basis points to 4.34%[2] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.4% to 97.1, while spot gold prices fell by 0.9% to $3326.1 per ounce[2] Fed Rate Expectations - The probability of a rate cut in July dropped from 25% to 0% after the non-farm data release[2] - The probability of a September rate cut decreased from 100% to approximately 73%[2] - The expected number of rate cuts for the year was revised down from 2.6 to 2.1[2] ADP vs Non-Farm Data - The ADP report showed a loss of 33,000 jobs in June, significantly below the expected gain of 95,000[3] - The divergence between ADP and non-farm data is attributed to differences in statistical coverage and the impact of tariffs[3] - Non-farm data is considered more reliable as it covers approximately 80% of employment positions compared to ADP's 17%[3] Economic Outlook - The strong non-farm data suggests resilience in the U.S. economy, supporting previous assessments[4] - The report indicates that if tariffs do not escalate further, a soft landing for the economy remains likely[4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance given manageable economic downturn risks and rising inflation concerns[4]

施罗德投资表示，虽然有关关税的消息仍然反复不定，但相对于"解放日"，目前的贸易发展局势与其基 本预期一致，即对中国征收30%关税、对其他地区征收10%，使实际关税水平维持在约12%。经济不确 定性持续存在，需密切观察企业将如何应对，但部分经济下行风险已较早前受控。因此，施罗德认为 2025年经济衰退的风险已有所减低。对股市维持正面看法，尤其聚焦美国及欧洲的金融业板块。 施罗德投资整体对各地政府债券维持中性立场。虽然收益率已上升且估值有所改善，但由于美国债务水 平上升及持续的通胀风险，中期而言担忧仍然存在。虽然市场预期与其展望更趋一致，但仍预期美联储 的货币政策放宽幅度、将低于目前市场所反映的水平。美国以外地区的通胀压力相对温和，相比美国国 债，继续看好德国国债的表现。 继续看好黄金作为分散投资组合的作用，并对美元持偏淡立场，主要反映于看好欧元及新兴市场本地货 币债券的表现。 由于现届美国政府政策走向难以预测，市场愈趋重视分散资产配置。投资者普遍持有较多美国资产，在 这情况下，预期风险意识将会提升，促使资金被重新分配，并流出美国市场。 而全球原油供应持续增加，将令市场出现供应过剩，并对2025年油价构成压力，因 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the US stock market has rebounded significantly due to signs of easing in the US-China trade war, with the S&P 500 rising approximately 5% year-to-date and the Nasdaq 100 increasing nearly 7% [12][13] - Despite the rebound, the report highlights that the small-cap Russell 2000 index remains down about 1%, indicating a divergence in market performance [12] - The report notes that the global stock indices, excluding the US, have outperformed the US market, with the world index rising 17% year-to-date, driven by a weaker dollar and capital outflows due to de-dollarization [12][13] Group 2 - The report discusses the ongoing US-China trade negotiations, which have shown signs of temporary easing, but structural differences remain significant, leading to uncertainty in future negotiations [13] - It highlights that the US economy experienced a contraction in the first quarter of 2025, with GDP growth at -0.5%, primarily due to a surge in imports and a slowdown in consumer spending [17][18] - The report emphasizes that retail sales data for May fell short of expectations, with a 0.9% month-over-month decline, indicating a cautious consumer sentiment [22][23] Group 3 - The report outlines that the US job market is showing mixed signals, with job vacancies at 7.769 million but a decline in private sector job creation, reflecting a cautious outlook among employers [32][37] - It notes that the US housing market is under pressure, with new home sales dropping significantly, attributed to high prices and mortgage rates, leading to weakened demand [48][49] - The report also mentions that inflationary pressures are emerging, with core consumer price index data indicating a potential rise in inflation, which could complicate monetary policy decisions [58][59] Group 4 - The report suggests that global capital is shifting away from US dollar assets towards non-dollar markets, benefiting Hong Kong stocks and indicating a trend of de-dollarization [79][84] - It highlights that European and Japanese economies are showing signs of recovery, with improving macroeconomic indicators and investor sentiment, although uncertainties remain due to US trade policies [89][90] - The report recommends investors to consider increasing allocations to Hong Kong, European, and Japanese markets, as valuations are relatively lower compared to the US market [90]

"在此背景下，践行ESG理念、实现绿色低碳转型对于建筑企业已经是一项'必答题'而非'选答题'。"杨 淑娟说。 《中华人民共和国2024年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》数据显示，自2020年以来， 建筑业增加值占国内生产总值的比例始终保持在6.6%以上，2024年为6.67%，与过往年度持平。这表 明，建筑行业作为国民经济支柱产业，与整个国家经济发展、人民生活的改善有着密切的关系，对稳定 经济大盘具有重要意义。 根据中国建筑业协会发布的《2024年建筑业发展统计分析》，2024年，直接从事生产经营活动的平均人 数5962.07万人，同比减少12.26%。截至2024年年底，全国共有建筑业企业168011个，比上年增加8871 个，增长5.57%。建筑业直接从事生产经营活动的平均人数大幅减少，企业数量持续增加，劳动生产率 大幅提高。此外，建筑业企业在数量增长的同时，产业结构不断优化，逐步呈现向产业链延伸、智能绿 色、城市运营等趋势转型。 中经记者 杜丽娟 北京报道 随着可持续发展理念的深入人心，各国政府和监管机构纷纷出台政策，推动企业进行ESG信息的强制披 露。目前ESG（环境、社会和治理）信息披露的强制性已成为全 ...

Market Overview - Major industry ETFs mostly declined, with the Consumer Discretionary ETF down approximately 1%, the Biotechnology Index ETF down 0.55%, and the Energy ETF down 0.5% [1] Industry Performance - Consumer Discretionary ETF (US XLY) current price: $215.37, down $1.96 (-0.90%), with a trading volume of 86,452 shares and a total market value of $27.051 billion, down 3.53% year-to-date [2] - Biotechnology Index ETF (US IBB) current price: $125.81, down $0.70 (-0.55%), with a trading volume of 54,019 shares and a total market value of $9.989 billion, down 4.76% year-to-date [2] - Energy ETF (US XLE) current price: $84.39, down $0.42 (-0.50%), with a trading volume of 1.0193 million shares and a total market value of $21.133 billion, up 0.09% year-to-date [2] - Semiconductor ETF (US SMH) current price: $277.65, down $1.23 (-0.44%), with a trading volume of 248,700 shares and a total market value of $3.282 billion, up 14.65% year-to-date [2] - Internet Index ETF (US FDN) current price: $268.48, down $0.85 (-0.31%), with a trading volume of 2,192 shares and a total market value of $17.827 billion, up 10.41% year-to-date [2] - Global Technology ETF (US IXN) current price: $92.09, down $0.25 (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 3,645 shares and a total market value of $1.289 billion, up 8.87% year-to-date [2] - Banking ETF (US KBE) current price: $55.67, down $0.09 (-0.16%), with a trading volume of 32,613 shares and a total market value of $4.309 billion, up 1.77% year-to-date [2] - Technology Sector ETF (US XLK) current price: $252.89, down $0.34 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 158,800 shares and a total market value of $804.33 billion, up 9.13% year-to-date [2] - Healthcare ETF (US XLV) current price: $134.61, down $0.18 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 326,900 shares and a total market value of $25.760 billion, down 1.30% year-to-date [2] - Financials ETF (US XLF) current price: $52.31, down $0.06 (-0.11%), with a trading volume of 890,000 shares and a total market value of $58.223 billion, up 9.00% year-to-date [2] - Global Airlines ETF (US JETS) current price: $22.95, down $0.02 (-0.09%), with a trading volume of 42,334 shares and a total market value of $72.293 million, down 9.47% year-to-date [2] - Utilities ETF (US XLU) current price: $81.60, down $0.06 (-0.07%), with a trading volume of 595,900 shares and a total market value of $11.846 billion, up 9.33% year-to-date [2] - Regional Banks ETF (US KRE) current price: $59.42, up $0.03 (+0.05%), with a trading volume of 263,600 shares and a total market value of $4.959 billion, down 0.20% year-to-date [2] - Consumer Staples ETF (US XLP) current price: $81.33, up $0.36 (+0.44%), with a trading volume of 459,700 shares and a total market value of $137.63 million [2]

6月份综合PMI产出指数为50.7%，比上月上升0.3个百分点。该指数是PMI指标体系中反映当期全行业 （制造业和非制造业）产出变化情况的综合指数，由制造业生产指数与非制造业商务活动指数加权求和 而成，权数分别为制造业和非制造业占GDP的比重。其中，制造业生产指数为51%，较上月上升0.3个 百分点。 本报北京6月30日电 （记者欧阳洁）国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会30日发布数据 显示：6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为 49.7%、50.5%和50.7%，比上月上升0.2、0.2和0.3个百分点，我国经济景气水平总体保持扩张。 在需求回升带动下，企业生产活动保持稳定扩张，生产指数为51%，较上月上升0.3个百分点。企业原 材料采购活动也相应有所扩张，采购量指数为50.2%，较上月上升2.6个百分点，在连续2个月运行在 50%以下后回到扩张区间。结合来看，6月份，制造业市场供需两端均有所扩张，经济运行基本面稳中 向好。 同时公布的6月份中国非制造业商务活动指数为50.5%，较上月上升0.2个百分点，继续保持在50%以上 的平稳扩张区间。新订单 ...

6月30日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示，6月份制造业采购经理指数（制造业PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合 PMI产出指数均有所回升，分别为49.7%、50.5%和50.7%，经济景气水平总体保持扩张。 分析认为，二季度，受到美国关税政策变化影响，制造业运行短期有所波动，非制造业整体保持扩张态势。预计下半年，在没有大的外部冲击的情况下，随着政策 组合的进一步发力，我国制造业将保持稳中有增发展态势，经济运行内生动力有望继续稳步改善。 二季度制造业PMI逐月改善 4—6月，制造业PMI分别为49.0%、49.5%和49.7%，整体运行在50%的临界点以下，但呈现环比改善的走势。6月份制造业PMI比上月上升0.2个百分点，连续两个月 回升。中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群表示，PMI指数小幅回升，表明一系列增量政策的效果继续显现。 6月份，产需指数均位于扩张区间。具体来看，企业生产活动保持稳定扩张，生产指数为51%，较上月上升0.3个百分点；新订单指数为50.2%，较上月上升0.4个百分 点，在连续2个月运行在50%以下后回到扩张区间。 中国物流信息中心分析师文韬表示，随着中美 ...

Group 1 - In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][2] - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.5%, also up by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting stable expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [1][2] - The Composite PMI Output Index increased to 50.7%, marking a rise of 0.3 percentage points, suggesting overall economic improvement [1][2] Group 2 - The PMI for large enterprises was 51.2%, up by 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 48.6%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points; however, small enterprises experienced a decline to 47.3%, down by 2 percentage points [3] - Various sub-indices showed positive changes, with production, new orders, and export orders indices rising between 0.2 to 2.6 percentage points, indicating a general recovery across different industries [4] - The logistics and procurement analyst noted that the slight PMI increase reflects the effectiveness of recent policies aimed at boosting demand, although the overall PMI remains below the growth threshold [4][5] Group 3 - The Non-Manufacturing PMI has consistently remained above 50% this year, with a new orders index of 46.6%, which has increased by 0.5 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in demand [6][8] - In the construction sector, the Business Activity Index rose to over 52%, reflecting increased investment-related activities, supported by expanded special bond allocations [7] - The financial services sector also showed growth, with both the Business Activity Index and new orders index exceeding 60%, indicating heightened activity as the quarter ends [7] Group 4 - Overall, the average Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index for the second quarter was 50.4%, similar to the first quarter, suggesting stable expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [8] - As policy benefits gradually materialize, investment and consumption-related demand are expected to continue to improve, enhancing the internal driving force of economic operations [8]