Group 1: Cobalt Market - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended the temporary ban on cobalt exports for an additional three months due to high inventory levels, affecting all sources of cobalt mining [1] - According to USGS, global cobalt production in 2024 is estimated at 288,000 metric tons, with DRC contributing approximately 220,000 metric tons, a year-on-year increase of about 25%, representing 76.4% of the global market [1] - The extended ban is expected to impact global cobalt supply by over 100,000 metric tons this year, potentially leading to domestic supply shortages [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment - The launch of the "Cross-Border Payment Pass" on June 22 marks the realization of interconnectivity between the mainland and Hong Kong's rapid payment systems, allowing real-time cross-border remittances [2] - This innovation is anticipated to enhance the convenience of using the Renminbi in cross-border retail scenarios and further promote the internationalization of the Renminbi [2] - Analysts suggest that the "Cross-Border Payment Pass" and stablecoins will serve as new engines for industry development, improving cross-border transaction efficiency and supporting global financial governance [2] Group 3: Brain-Computer Interface - The first intervention-based brain-computer interface trial for restoring motor function in a paralyzed patient has been successfully completed in China, showcasing the country's innovation in core brain-computer interface technology [3] - Analysts believe that brain-computer interfaces are poised to become a core technology for human-machine interaction, with applications initially focused on medical rehabilitation and later expanding to education, entertainment, military, and industrial sectors [3][4] Group 4: High-End Medical Devices - The National Medical Products Administration has approved measures to optimize the lifecycle regulation of high-end medical devices, supporting innovation in this sector [5] - The measures include optimizing special approval processes, improving classification and naming principles, and enhancing post-market surveillance [5] - The high-end medical device market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of 1.27 trillion yuan in 2023, surpassing 1.8 trillion yuan by 2025, and reaching 3 trillion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 11.5% [5][6] Group 5: Smart Factories - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has announced the 2025 action plan for cultivating smart factories, categorizing them into four levels: basic, advanced, excellent, and leading [6] - Smart factories are seen as the core vehicle for the digital transformation of manufacturing, integrating information technology, automation, and artificial intelligence to achieve intelligent and efficient production processes [6] - The smart factory market is projected to exceed 1.4 trillion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of over 10%, and is expected to approach 4.5 trillion yuan by 2030 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the cobalt industry [1] Core Insights - The global cobalt supply chain is highly dependent on the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which accounts for over 50% of global cobalt reserves and over 70% of production. In 2024, DRC's cobalt production is expected to reach approximately 220,000 metric tons, a year-on-year increase of about 25%, representing 76.4% of global market share [4][30] - Indonesia's nickel-cobalt projects are reshaping the industry landscape, with MHP production expected to grow significantly, leading to a projected cobalt output of 28,000 metric tons in 2024, accounting for about 10% of global production [4][42] - The lithium battery sector is the main driver of global cobalt consumption, with a projected consumption of 222,000 metric tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of approximately 14%. The electric vehicle sector is expected to consume about 95,000 metric tons, a 21% increase [4][42] - The DRC's policy adjustments in response to supply-demand imbalances have led to fluctuations in cobalt prices, with domestic prices expected to rebound above 250,000 yuan per ton in 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The DRC's cobalt production is projected to grow significantly due to the performance of major mining companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, which is expected to produce approximately 114,200 metric tons of cobalt in 2024, a 106% increase year-on-year [4][30] - The DRC's decision to suspend cobalt raw material exports for four months aims to address oversupply issues, which is expected to impact global cobalt supply by over 100,000 metric tons [4] Industry Structure - The cobalt industry is characterized by a concentration of resources, with major players including Luoyang Molybdenum, Glencore, and others controlling significant portions of the market [4][16] - Indonesia's MHP production is rapidly increasing, with a projected output of 323,000 metric tons of nickel in 2024, which will also enhance cobalt production [4][42] Market Trends - The report highlights a recovery in global demand for consumer electronics, with smartphone shipments expected to reach 1.24 billion units in 2024, marking a 6.4% increase [4] - The DRC's cobalt price adjustments and export policies are expected to influence market dynamics significantly, with long-term implications for pricing power in the cobalt market [4]

刚果官员：正在审查为期四个月的钴出口禁令 金十数据5月14日讯，周三，刚果（金）矿业部长Kizito Pakabomba在新加坡举行的钴行业会议上表示， 该国正在审查为期四个月的钴出口禁令，但没有提供进一步细节。今年2月，该国对这种电池金属实施 了为期4个月的出口禁令，以控制国际市场上供过于求的状况。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Huayou Cobalt, Chen Xuehua, responded to rumors regarding the replacement of LG by Huayou in the electric vehicle battery project in Indonesia, emphasizing Huayou's ongoing partnership with LG and the project's significance [1] Group 1: Company Involvement - Huayou Cobalt has been a member of the LG consortium for five years, participating in the electric vehicle battery project [1] - The project encompasses the entire industry chain from mining to precursor and battery production, highlighting Huayou's comprehensive industry advantages [1] Group 2: Future Prospects - The Indonesian government is looking for Huayou to form new partnerships to advance the project, indicating potential collaborative opportunities [1] - Huayou is open to promoting the project but emphasizes that it will not be solely driven by Huayou; industry chain partners will be involved [1]

Group 1 - As of March 31, lithium carbonate futures closed at 74,160 CNY/ton, with a price drop of 1.38% over the month [1] - The trading volume for the main lithium carbonate futures contract was 83,911 lots, with an open interest of 210,611 lots, reflecting a slight increase [1] - The overall market for lithium carbonate fluctuated between 72,000 and 78,000 CNY/ton during March [1] Group 2 - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 74,000 CNY/ton, while industrial-grade was at 72,100 CNY/ton, both showing a slight decline compared to the previous month [1] - Domestic lithium spodumene imports totaled 1.16 million tons in January-February 2025, equivalent to 95,000 tons of lithium carbonate [1] - The lithium market is experiencing a decrease in demand acceptance from domestic buyers due to falling lithium carbonate prices, leading to lower overseas mine quotations [1] Group 3 - The production of lithium carbonate is expected to remain high, with strong supply from first and second-tier lithium salt manufacturers despite some reductions from smaller firms [1] - Downstream demand is relatively stable, with slight increases in production for lithium iron phosphate, while the growth in ternary materials remains limited [1] - As of March 27, SMM reported lithium carbonate inventory at 127,900 tons, an increase of 1,511 tons from the previous week [1] Group 4 - The average market price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 72,000 CNY/ton, down 2.04% from the same period last month, while battery-grade averaged 73,500 CNY/ton, down 2.65% [1] - The market is expected to continue facing oversupply, with weak price performance anticipated for lithium carbonate in April [1] - Cobalt market conditions are showing strength, with rising prices driven by supply disruptions from the Democratic Republic of Congo [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [6][22] Core Viewpoints - Cobalt prices have surged to 261,000 CNY/ton, marking a 64.15% increase since February 24, 2025, indicating a potential recovery in the cobalt supply-demand structure [3][10] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), as the largest cobalt supplier, has suspended cobalt exports for four months to address oversupply issues, which may lead to short-term price fluctuations [2][4] - The DRC's GDP is projected to exceed 70 billion USD in 2024, with mining contributing 30%-40% of this GDP, suggesting that the government will likely resume exports after the suspension period to maintain economic stability [3][4] Supply and Demand Summary - The DRC holds approximately 6 million tons of cobalt reserves, accounting for 54.44% of global reserves, and produced 220,000 tons in 2024, representing 75.86% of global production [4][11] - The suspension of exports is expected to reduce cobalt supply by 73,000 tons in 2025, potentially exacerbating supply shortages [4] - Cobalt demand is primarily driven by the battery sector, which accounted for 68.8% of global consumption in 2020, with projections for demand from electric vehicle batteries reaching 88,500 tons, 106,900 tons, and 126,200 tons from 2024 to 2026 [4][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that cobalt prices may stabilize and recover, with a potential improvement in the supply-demand structure. Investors are advised to focus on companies that may benefit from rising cobalt prices, such as Huayou Cobalt, Tengyuan Cobalt, and Hanrui Cobalt [5][21]

十天内，两则消息彻底搅动全球钴矿江湖。 首先据新华财经消息，刚果（金）有关部门2月24日宣布，该国决定暂停钴出口四个月，以应对 全球钴市场供应过剩的局面；据了解，该禁止出口措施适用于所有生产商，但没有限制钴的生 产，而且不影响铜的出口。该决定将于3个月后再行审查。同时，监管当局也在准备其他措施以 平衡钴市场。 3月5日，据 "SMM新能源" 报道，国产动力电池厂商赣锋锂电发布客户告知函称：近期，全球最 大的钻矿产地刚果金爆发内战，导致全球钻矿供应紧张，钻价大幅上涨。受此影响，所有正极材 料供应商已停止报价，短期内无法下单采购正极材料，锂电池行业正面临成本上升和供应链中断 的挑战。 受两则消息影响，自信息发布至今 （3月7日收盘） ，9个交易日，中国资本市场钴矿三巨头腾远 钴业 (301219.SZ) 、华友钴业 (603799.SH) 、寒锐钴业 (300618.SZ) 股价分别上涨了27.50%、 18.24%、16.56%，而同期上证指数下跌了0.01%。 目前关于第2则消息的影响与变化我们目前还难以预测，本文旨在整理与分析 "刚果（金）禁运令 将对全球钴矿价格，乃至全球钴供应链产生怎样的影响？以及未来钴 ...

行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 [Ta刚bl果e_（R金e）p暂Ti停tle出]口四个月 钴价短期或获支撑走强 [Table_Title] ——有色金属行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 2 月 26 日 孟业雄 [内Ta容ble摘_S要ummary] [有Ta色b金le_属P（icQ中u信ot）e]与上证综指走势图 告 行 业 重 大 事 件 点 中性 [相Ta关bl报e_告Report] 报 告 [分Ta析b师le_：Author] 联系电话：010-88300920 [Table_Author] 执业证书编号：S1380523040001 邮箱：mengyexiong@gkzq.com.cn 2月24日，刚果（金）相关部门宣布了一项重大决策：为应对全 球钴市场出现的供应过剩问题，该国将钴出口暂停四个月。当日， 刚果（金）战略矿产市场监管控制局发表声明，透露刚果总理与 矿业部长已共同签署法令，授权监管机构在必要时采取临时禁止 出口等措施，确保市场稳定不受干扰。此措施自2月22日起正式 施行。声明还指出，政府计划在措施实施三个月后进行全面评估， 并依据评估结果考虑是否调整或解除当前的出 ...