Group 1: Steel Industry - In July, the PMI for new export orders was reported at 47.10% [4] - The BCI for small and medium enterprises financing environment index in July 2025 was 46.09, a month-on-month decrease of 6.16% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in June 2025 was -3.7 percentage points, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [4] Group 2: Non-ferrous Metals - In July, the operating rate of cable enterprises reached a six-year low compared to the same period last year [4] - The copper price is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to lower domestic cable operating rates and a decrease in air conditioning production from August to October [4] - However, tight supply from mines and scrap copper, along with a rebound in demand for power grids and air conditioning in Q4, may lead to an increase in copper prices [4] Group 3: Renewable Energy and Environmental Protection - The political bureau meeting emphasized the importance of promoting a unified national market and optimizing market competition [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue, impacting the stock prices of photovoltaic-related companies [4] - Key areas to watch include price-sensitive segments such as silicon materials, glass, and BC batteries [4] Group 4: Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology - The public health emergency response level III was activated in Foshan due to the outbreak of Chikungunya fever, with over 6,000 confirmed cases reported by July 31 [5] Group 5: Company-Specific Developments - New An Co., Ltd. has established a new subsidiary focused on synthetic materials, indicating a strengthened global development strategy [6] - China Shenhua announced plans to acquire assets from the State Energy Group, including coal and related energy assets [6] - TAL Education Group reported a revenue of $575 million for FY26Q1, a year-on-year increase of 38.8%, with net profit significantly exceeding expectations [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core View of the Report - The downstream off - season characteristics are obvious, and the non - ferrous metals sector has corrected. The prices of various non - ferrous metals show different trends, and each metal has its own influencing factors and market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - Ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Different metals have different daily, weekly, and annual price changes. For example, the US dollar index is 98.7, with a daily decline of 1.36%, a weekly increase of 1.04%, and an annual decline of 9.03%; industrial silicon is 8500 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.97%, a weekly decline of 12.60%, and an annual decline of 22.62% [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The overall content of the Politburo meeting is less than the market's optimistic expectations; the result of the Sino - US economic and trade talks is in line with expectations, but the US side's statement is hawkish; China's July manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly declined; the Fed's statement is hawkish, suppressing the expectation of a September interest rate cut; the US July non - farm data is lower than expected, and the ISM manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly declined; the US has imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper [8]. - **Raw Material End**: Slightly bullish. The spot processing fee of copper ore has increased slightly, and the port inventory of domestic copper ore has decreased [8]. - **Smelting End**: Slightly bearish. The loss of smelters using spot copper ore has narrowed, and the profit of smelters using long - term contract copper ore has increased. China's copper smelter production in July has further increased [8]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The downstream demand has improved slightly, but the off - season characteristics are obvious [8]. - **Inventory**: Slightly bearish. The copper inventories at home and abroad have increased simultaneously [8]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The market is worried about the US economic recession, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, so the copper price is expected to remain weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: May be under pressure to decline in the short term; Arbitrage: None [8]. 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The Sino - US tariff suspension will be extended for 90 days; the US June core PCE price index has increased significantly; China's July official manufacturing PMI has declined; Trump has imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper; the Fed has kept interest rates unchanged, but two voting members support a rate cut [88]. - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The domestic processing fee remains the same as last week, and the import processing fee index has been slightly increased. The smelters have a strong willingness to raise the processing fee [88]. - **Smelting End**: Bearish. The zinc ingot production in July reached a new high in the past five years, and the production in August is expected to increase [88]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The terminal project construction is affected by natural disasters, but the galvanizing sector is affected by positive news. There is a rumor that galvanizing manufacturers around Beijing will stop production during the September military parade, which needs further attention [88]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The social inventory has continued to increase, and it may continue to increase before the terminal demand enters the peak season [88]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The zinc fundamentals are under strong pressure, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [88]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Long copper and short zinc [88]. 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The US July non - farm data has unexpectedly declined, and the previous two months' data has been significantly revised down; the US manufacturing PMI is weaker than expected; the Sino - US trade negotiation is slightly less than expected [200][202]. - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The premium of Indonesian domestic trade pyrometallurgical nickel ore is stable, and the benchmark price is rising. The demand for nickel ore procurement has weakened, and the domestic port inventory has increased seasonally [200][202]. - **Smelting End**: Slightly bearish. The pure nickel production remains high; some Indonesian nickel - iron plants have reduced production due to cost inversion, but the demand has also weakened; the MHP coefficient is stable, and the procurement demand for nickel sulfate may increase [200]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The stainless steel price has corrected, the steel mill profit has been repaired, and the production reduction may be less than expected. The stainless steel social inventory has decreased slightly, and the overseas demand is still restricted. The new energy production and sales remain high, and the precursor enterprises' raw material inventory is relatively sufficient [200]. - **Inventory**: Slightly bearish. The overall inventory has increased. As of Friday, the LME nickel inventory is 20.9 tons, an increase of 2.53%; the SHFE nickel inventory is 2.57 tons, an increase of 1.17% [200]. - **Investment View**: Weakly volatile. The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the nickel price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with increased volatility. In the long term, there is still pressure of over - supply of primary nickel [200]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the short term; Arbitrage: Wait and see [200].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in copper production for Q2 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 40.3% to 57,416 tonnes, primarily driven by increased output from Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos [1][2] - The C1 cash cost for copper in Q2 2025 was reported at $2.45 per pound, a decrease of 12.5% year-on-year, attributed to higher production volumes and lower production costs [2] - The average realized copper price in Q2 2025 was $4.39 per pound, reflecting a 3.1% decline year-on-year but a 0.7% increase quarter-on-quarter [2] Production and Operational Performance - Q2 2025 copper sales reached 53,977 tonnes, marking a 35.8% increase year-on-year, although it fell short of production by approximately 1,800 tonnes due to sales scheduling at Mantos Blancos [1] - The report indicates that the total sulphide production for Q2 2025 was 47,086 tonnes, compared to 30,374 tonnes in Q2 2024, showcasing a robust operational performance [10] - The report also details the production costs for various sites, with Mantoverde's C1 cash cost at $1.51 per pound and Mantos Blancos at $1.87 per pound [10] Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of $543.2 million for Q2 2025, a 38.2% increase year-on-year [3][13] - Net income attributable to shareholders for Q2 2025 was $30 million, a 9.1% increase compared to the previous year, recovering from a loss of $1.2 million in Q1 2025 [3][13] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $215.6 million, reflecting a 75.1% increase year-on-year, driven by higher sulphide production [3][13] Debt and Liquidity - As of March 31, 2025, net debt stood at $788.1 million, slightly up from $742 million at the end of 2024, primarily due to working capital changes [4][8] - By June 30, 2025, net debt decreased to $691.9 million, indicating improved liquidity and financial management [8] 2025 Guidance - The company reaffirmed its 2025 guidance for total copper production between 220,000 to 250,000 tonnes, with C1 cash costs projected between $2.20 to $2.50 per pound [9] - Capital expenditures are expected to be $315 million, with exploration spending set at $25 million [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Suspended [6] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - The current 50% tariff does not cover refined copper, causing the Comex premium to drop significantly. If the inventory of over 250,000 tons in Comex flows back to the market, it may impact copper prices again. Therefore, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended. However, due to the price - holding sentiment of domestic holders, the possibility of a continuous and significant decline in copper prices is relatively small [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 31, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,640 yuan/ton and closed at 78,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 78,180 yuan/ton and closed at 78,010 yuan/ton, a 0.55% decrease from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market showed a tightening trend at the end of the month. The premium of 1 electrolytic copper to the 2508 contract was 140 - 220 yuan/ton, with an average of 180 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price range was 78,460 - 78,670 yuan/ton. It is expected that holders will maintain a price - holding strategy on August 1, and the actual trading activity is expected to improve [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: Trump signed an executive order to modify the reciprocal tariff rates for certain countries. The tariff on Canada will be increased from 25% to 35% starting August 1, 2025. Goods transshipped to avoid the 35% tariff will be subject to a 40% transshipment tariff. The US Treasury Secretary expects to announce Fed nominations by the end of the year, and there will be two vacancies on the Fed Board. China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [3] - **Mine End**: The copper production of Anglo American's Quellaveco copper mine in Peru increased slightly in the first half of the year, but the company's total copper production decreased by 13% due to the decline in Chilean production [3] - **Smelting and Import**: Southern Copper's CFO believes that trade conflicts will impact the global economy and the copper industry, but is optimistic about the long - term prospects of copper. Glencore's copper production decreased by 26% in the first half of the year, and it raised its full - year production forecast [4] - **Consumption**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Near the end of the month, downstream consumption had limited room for improvement. Due to some processing enterprises' export - rushing actions, market demand was relatively stable, and downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 1,350 tons to 138,200 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 351 tons to 19,622 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on July 28 was 119,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The US tariff increase on semi-finished copper products has limited direct impact on the Chinese copper industry, and it is expected to have a certain negative impact on the Shanghai copper price, but the overall impact is not significant [3][14][35] - The price of copper may mainly show a volatile trend due to various factors such as China's economic policies, US policies, supply, demand, and inventory [35][36][37] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In June, affected by the dissipation of the negative impact of tariff policies, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures showed a mainly volatile and weakening trend, with a price range of about 77,650 yuan/ton to 80,780 yuan/ton [7] - The price trend of the LME copper futures contract was similar to that of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with an operating range of about 9,555 - 10,020 US dollars/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Environment - The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products starting from August 1st, while copper input materials and copper scrap are not subject to relevant tariffs [11] - From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 343.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. Different types of enterprises had different profit changes, and there were also significant differences in profit changes among industries [15][16] - On July 30th local time in the US, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, which was the fifth consecutive time to maintain the interest rate unchanged [3][35] 3. Supply Side - As of June 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. As of July 25th, 2025, the refining fee of Chinese copper smelters was -4.26 cents/pound, and the rough smelting fee was -42.73 US dollars/kiloton [17] - As of July 31st, 2025, the price of refined copper in Shanghai Wumaomao was 78,535 yuan/ton, the price of scrap copper in Foshan, Guangdong was 72,450 yuan/ton, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper was -1,160 yuan/ton [23] 4. Demand Side - As of June 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.2145 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. In June 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid construction was 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [26] 5. Inventory Side - As of July 25th, 2025, the cathode copper inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 11,133 tons from the previous week. As of July 30th, 2025, the LME copper inventory increased by 9,225 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 12.4%. The COMEX copper inventory increased by 2,517 tons from the previous trading day. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 500 tons from the previous week [31] 6. Outlook - The factors affecting copper price trends include China's economic policies, US policies, supply, demand, inventory, etc., with different degrees of influence [34] - Considering various factors, the copper price may mainly show a volatile trend [35][36][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - For copper, the current demand is seasonally weak due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment motivation, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but long - term bullish view is maintained on Shanghai copper, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly from January to May, and August is a seasonal off - season for demand. Inventory may continue to accumulate slightly in August. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand, as well as far - month and inside - outside reverse arbitrage opportunities under the low - inventory pattern [1][2]. - For zinc, the price fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and inventories at home and abroad show different trends. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see, pay attention to commodity sentiment, and manage positions. Inside - outside positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to month - spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories at home and abroad are stable. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. - For stainless steel, supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have decreased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [6][7]. - For lead, the price declined slightly this week. Supply and demand have small changes, and there are expectations of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [8][9]. - For tin, the price fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and the domestic market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see or short - sell lightly at high prices [12]. - For industrial silicon, the production of Hesheng may change the supply - demand balance. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the disk is expected to fluctuate. If the resumption of production accelerates, the supply will be in excess, and the price may decline [15]. - For lithium carbonate, the current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disturbances. If the risks are resolved, the price may remain low and fluctuate [17]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased from 180 to 110, and the warehouse receipt increased by 251. The spot import profit increased by 216.25, and the three - month import profit increased by 203.83 [1]. - **Analysis**: The demand is currently weak, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the 4.8% - 5.5% range. A short - term cautious but long - term bullish view is maintained, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 40, and the domestic alumina price increased by 1. The social inventory showed a small change, and the exchange inventory remained the same [1]. - **Analysis**: Supply increased slightly from January to May, August is a seasonal off - season for demand, and inventory may continue to accumulate slightly. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and arbitrage opportunities [1][2]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the zinc price fluctuated narrowly. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,350. The import profit of Shanghai zinc increased [5]. - **Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and inventories at home and abroad show different trends. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see, pay attention to commodity sentiment, and manage positions. Inside - outside positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to month - spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 900. The import profit of spot nickel decreased by 660.34 [6]. - **Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories at home and abroad are stable. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled stainless steel remained unchanged [6]. - **Analysis**: Supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have decreased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [6][7]. Lead - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot premium of lead increased by 10, and the LME inventory increased by 6,700. The import profit of spot lead increased by 71.14 [8]. - **Analysis**: The price declined slightly this week. Supply and demand have small changes, and there are expectations of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [8][9]. Tin - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot import profit of tin decreased by 2,016.08, and the LME inventory increased by 35. The LME C - 3M increased by 31 [12]. - **Analysis**: The price fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and the domestic market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see or short - sell lightly at high prices [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the 421 Yunnan basis and 421 Sichuan basis changed, and the 553 East China basis and 553 Tianjin basis also changed. The number of warehouse receipts changed slightly [15]. - **Analysis**: The production of Hesheng may change the supply - demand balance. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the disk is expected to fluctuate. If the resumption of production accelerates, the supply will be in excess, and the price may decline [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 750, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 700. The basis of the main contract increased by 1,530 [17]. - **Analysis**: The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disturbances. If the risks are resolved, the price may remain low and fluctuate [17].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing short-term fluctuations while awaiting the Federal Reserve's stance on future interest rate cuts [3] Group 1: Market Overview - As of July 25, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 79,250 CNY/ton, up 1.07% from July 18, while LME copper closed at 9,796 USD/ton, up 0.02% [3] - Domestic copper prices are rising in line with the "anti-involution" sentiment in domestic commodities, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand - The cable operating rate is lower than the same period last year, and domestic air conditioning production is expected to decline in Q3, indicating weak demand [3] - However, supply from mines and scrap copper remains tight, and with a rebound in demand for power grids and air conditioning in Q4, copper prices are expected to rise [3] Group 3: Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 20% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory increased by 5% [4] - As of July 25, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 561,000 tons, down 23.2% from the previous week [4] - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 449,000 tons as of July 21, 2025, up 5.7% [4] Group 4: Raw Material Prices - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 125 CNY/ton this week [5] - In March 2025, China's refined copper production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5] Group 5: Smelting and Exports - In June 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.3% month-on-month but up 12.9% year-on-year [6] - The import volume of electrolytic copper in June increased by 18.7% month-on-month, while the export volume surged by 134.2% [7] Group 6: Demand Analysis - The cable industry accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate at 70.83%, down 2.07 percentage points from the previous week [8] - Air conditioning production, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, saw a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in June, lower than the previously expected 11.5% [8] Group 7: Futures Market - As of July 25, 2025, the open interest for SHFE copper contracts increased by 31.4% week-on-week, reaching 181,000 lots [9] - COMEX non-commercial net long positions decreased by 2.2% week-on-week, totaling 40,000 lots [9]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：铜价短期震荡 截至2025年7月18日，SHFE铜收盘价78410 元/吨，环比7月11日-0.03%；LME铜收盘价9795 美元/吨，环 比7月11日+1.36%。（1）宏观：美国6月CPI继续反弹，市场预计美联储7月不降息概率为94%，美元短期 或偏强。（2）供需：线缆开工率虽有回升但低于去年同期，7-9月国内空调排产环比下降，需求Q3偏弱； 美国铜套利行为或被提前终止，美国以外铜市场短期面临供应压力，铜价短期震荡。但矿端、废铜后续仍 维持紧张，随着电网、空调需求Q4回升以及贸易冲突逐步消化，Q4铜价有望上行。 冶炼：TC现货价维持在-43美元/吨附近 1）产量：2025年6月SMM中国电解铜产量113.49 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, it gives individual outlooks for various commodities, including bullish, bearish, and neutral views. Core Views of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of multiple commodities, offering insights into their price trends, fundamental data, and relevant market news. It suggests that different commodities are influenced by various factors such as supply - demand dynamics, macroeconomic conditions, and industry - specific events. For example, some commodities like gold, silver, and aluminum are expected to show upward trends, while others like tin are predicted to experience price weakness. Summary According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold is expected to move upward in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2510 was 781.70, up 0.60%, and the overnight closing price was 785.76, up 0.76%. [2][7][8] - Silver is predicted to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 1. The closing price of沪银2510 was 9271, down 0.02%, and the overnight closing price was 9420.00, up 1.85%. [2][7][8] Base Metals - Copper: Inventory reduction supports the price. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 79,770, up 1.70%. [2][11] - Zinc: It will fluctuate within a range, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of沪锌主力 was 22925, up 2.83%. [2][14] - Lead: The expected supply - demand contradiction supports the price, with a trend strength of 1. The closing price of沪铅主力 was 16960, up 0.83%. [2][17] - Tin: The price is weakening, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 267,250, up 1.02%. [2][19] - Aluminum: It will move upward in a volatile manner. Alumina shows strong short - term sentiment, and casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum is 0, alumina is 1, and casting aluminum alloy is 0. The closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 20840. [2][23] - Nickel: Macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity. The trend strength of both nickel and stainless steel is 0. The closing price of沪镍主力 was 122,550, and the closing price of stainless steel主力 was 12,905. [2][26] Energy - Related Commodities - Iron ore: Supported by macro - expectations, it will oscillate strongly. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of the futures was 809.0, up 3.06%. [2][38] - Coke and coking coal: Both are expected to oscillate strongly. The trend strength of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1. The closing price of JM2509 was 1006, up 8.64%, and the closing price of J2509 was 1803, up 5.60%. [2][49][50] - Thermal coal: With the recovery of daily consumption, it will stabilize in a volatile manner. The trend strength is 0. The previous closing price of ZC2507 was 840.0000, down 51.4 from the previous settlement price. [2][53] Chemical Commodities - Carbonate lithium: Potential supply reduction combined with strong macro - sentiment may lead to a strong short - term trend. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 71,280, up 1,320. [2][31] - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the futures price is resilient. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of Si2509 was 9,260, up 565. [2][35] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the transaction situation at the component end. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of PS2509 was 45,660, up 1,810. [2][35] Building Materials and Steel - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment remains strong, and they will oscillate strongly. The trend strength of both is 1. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,224, up 68, and the closing price of HC2510 was 3,394, up 73. [2][41] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Market sentiment remains strong, and they will oscillate strongly. The trend strength of both is 1. The closing price of硅铁2509 was 5668, up 160, and the closing price of锰硅2509 was 5914, up 110. [2][45] Others - Logs will fluctuate repeatedly. [2][56]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a "反内卷" (anti-involution) trend leading to a general increase in commodity prices, with specific catalysts such as policy expectations driving price movements in copper, aluminum, lithium, and cobalt [4][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important macroeconomic information includes the U.S. June core CPI being below expectations at 2.9%, and retail sales showing a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [10]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to release a growth stabilization plan for key industries including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [10]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices are expected to rebound due to policy expectations, with LME copper prices increasing by 0.83% and SHFE copper prices slightly decreasing by 0.03% [6][25]. - Inventory levels have risen, with LME copper stocks increasing by 12.37% [22][25]. - Downstream demand is recovering, with copper rod operating rates at 74.2%, up by 7.2 percentage points [6]. 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices are also expected to rise, with alumina prices increasing by 0.16% to 3165 CNY/ton [6][36]. - SHFE aluminum prices fell by 1.01% to 20500 CNY/ton, but are projected to recover due to strong policy support [6][36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices decreased by 1.38%, while SHFE lead prices fell by 1.70% [46]. - LME zinc prices increased by 1.24%, but SHFE zinc prices dropped by 0.45% [46]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices fell by 0.73%, and SHFE tin prices decreased by 0.65% [60]. - LME nickel prices decreased by 0.33%, while SHFE nickel prices fell by 0.78% [60]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices are on the rise, with lithium carbonate increasing by 4.55% to 66650 CNY/ton, and lithium spodumene rising by 5.49% to 711 USD/ton [75]. - Supply issues are noted, with a slight increase in production but ongoing inventory accumulation [75]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, with domestic cobalt prices down by 1.22% to 243000 CNY/ton [88]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export ban by three months, which may lead to a price rebound in Q4 [88].