1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [4] - Alumina: Medium - to long - term oscillating weakly, short - term consider cautious short - selling for far - month contracts [5] - Aluminum: Short - term oscillating, medium - term oscillating weakly [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Spot AD is weak in the off - season, and the futures price is pressured following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [8] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [9] - Lead: Oscillating [15] - Nickel: Oscillating weakly in the short - term, suggest long - term position take profit [20] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating in the short - term [25] - Tin: Oscillating [26] 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar hits a new low this year, and non - ferrous metals reach a new high since early April. In the short - to medium - term, the weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weak demand expectations are intertwined, leading non - ferrous metals to oscillate upward. Focus on structural opportunities and cautiously consider short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long - term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and consider short - selling opportunities for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties on price rallies [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - The US dollar index declines, and copper prices remain high. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate, and a major global copper mine initiates mid - year negotiations. China's electrolytic copper production increases. Spot premiums rise, and inventories slightly increase. Macro factors boost copper prices, and supply risks exist while demand is in the off - season. The short - term outlook is high - level oscillation [4] 3.1.2 Alumina - Weekly inventories increase, and the futures spread is high. Spot prices mostly decline, and overseas transactions show price increases. In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore, and the spot price center moves down. The long - term situation is affected by events, and the outlook is medium - to long - term oscillation with a weakening trend [5] 3.1.3 Aluminum - Regional premiums and discounts are differentiated, and the electrolytic aluminum futures oscillate. Prices decline slightly, and inventories show a mixed trend. In the short - term, there is inventory accumulation, and in the medium - term, consumption may face pressure [7] 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Spot trading is light, and the aluminum alloy futures oscillate. The off - season pressure on the automotive industry is high, and the electrolytic aluminum situation eases. In the long - term, there is an expected seasonal increase in demand, and the futures price follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [8] 3.1.5 Zinc - The supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged, and consider short - selling opportunities on price rallies. Spot premiums vary, and inventories slightly decline. Macro factors are neutral, supply is loosening, and demand is in the off - season. The outlook is oscillating weakly [12] 3.1.6 Lead - The off - season of consumption is coming to an end, and lead prices oscillate. Spot prices and inventories show certain changes. Supply decreases slightly, and demand is recovering. The outlook is oscillation [15] 3.1.7 Nickel - Market sentiment improves, and long - term positions should be gradually taken profit. LME and domestic inventories change, and there are various industry developments. Market sentiment dominates, and the industry fundamentals are weakening. The short - term outlook is wide - range oscillation [20] 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - The expectation of supply contraction increases, and the futures price continues to rise. Futures and spot prices change, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore is affected by the rainy season. Cost support weakens, and the short - term outlook is range - bound oscillation [25] 3.1.9 Tin - Supply disturbances reappear, and tin prices oscillate. Warehouse receipts and spot prices change. The supply from the main producing areas is tight, and the fundamentals are resilient. The outlook is oscillation [26] 3.2行情监测 - The document does not provide specific content for this part, so it is skipped.

有色金属专场 - 年度中期策略会 20260626 摘要 铜价 2024 年上半年受中国需求、美国物流套利及市场博弈驱动上涨， 伦铜需突破 9,580 美元或触及 10,000 美元面临技术阻力，下半年关注 美国 232 关税政策、国内消费淡季及矿产供应变化等不确定性因素。 铜市场长线投资逻辑在于电力电网升级和新增消费领域带来的需求增长， 但矿产供应增速可能难以跟上，2024 年矿产供应增量超预期，2025 年 可能下降，2026 年可能较高，2027 年可能出现供应问题。 锡市场价格波动受矿损事件和供应预期影响，加工费极低。光伏产业对 锡需求至关重要，但美国对东盟光伏电池征税带来不确定性。半导体销 售周期预计下半年达峰值，AI 基础设施投资影响传统 3C 品类出口。 铝市场需求韧性较强，全年过剩压力较低。铜铝价格走势与去年相关， 近期铝偏强。铝产业链利润重新分配，电解铝利润较好，上游矿端利润 压缩，氧化铝困难，下游加工端利润下降。 几内亚铝土矿发运量维持高位，预计 2025 年增量可观。中国铝土矿进 口量增长，但存在过剩。几内亚事件后铝土矿价格下跌后企稳，预计难 以回到 70 美元以下。 Q&A 2025 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：看好宏观预期改善后铜价上行 需求：本周线缆开工率环比-3pct，5月国内家用空调产量低于预期 （1）线缆：约占国内铜需求31%，线缆企业2025年6月19日当周开工率为73.26%，环比上周-3.05pct。（2）空 调：约占国内铜需求13%，据产业在线6月18日更新，2025年5月中国家用空调产量为2081.2万台，同 比-1.8%（4月预计的5月排产同比增速+9.9%）；销量2203.4万台，同比+2.3%。（3）铜棒：约占国内铜需求 4.2%，黄铜棒2025年5月开工率50.6%，环比-4.4pct、同比+0.05pct。 截至2025年6月20日，SHFE铜收盘价77990 元/吨，环比6月13日-0.03% ...

Report Overview - Report Date: June 20, 2025 - Report Title: [Guantong Research] Multiple Factors Intertwined, the Disk Tests the Resistance Level - Analyst: Wang Jing from Guantong Futures Research and Consulting Department Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The Shanghai copper futures market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term due to multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, inflation expectations, potential Fed rate cuts, supply shortages, and weakening demand [1]. Summary by Section Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and moved lower in the afternoon. Trump will decide whether to attack Iran in two weeks, and although the conflict has eased, oil prices have risen, increasing inflation expectations. Trump has called on the Fed to cut rates for two consecutive days, and the market still expects two rate cuts this year. The Fed's rate cuts will affect the US dollar index and guide the price trend of the non - ferrous market. On the fundamental side, the port inventory of refined copper ore has decreased significantly this week, and copper imports have also declined. The cost of smelters has increased, intensifying the market's tight supply expectations. On the demand side, the downstream start - up rate has slowed down, the enthusiasm for purchasing has decreased, and the trading volume has weakened. The terminal wire and cable industry remains resilient, but the production schedule of the home appliance industry has shrunk, and the real estate industry has also dragged down the market [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and moved higher, closing slightly lower at 77,990. The number of long positions of the top 20 futures companies decreased by 3,684 to 119,268 lots, and the number of short positions decreased by 3,770 to 106,544 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 105 yuan/ton, and in South China is 90 yuan/ton. On June 19, 2025, the LME official price was 9,609 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 103 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply - side - As of June 13, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 43.91 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.40 US cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 33,900 tons, a decrease of 10,934 tons from the previous period. As of June 19, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 60,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 99,200 tons, a slight decrease of 4,125 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 199,900 short tons, an increase of 1,544 short tons from the previous period [8].

Group 1: Report's Overall Core View - The report provides a weekly analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including their price trends, supply - demand situations, and inventory changes, and gives corresponding investment strategies and outlooks [1] Group 2: Copper Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, the change in Shanghai copper spot price was - 40, and the change in LME inventory was - 200. Other data such as premium and import profit also showed certain changes [1] Core View - Overseas, LME copper warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled, and the LME cash - 3m structure remained at a high level. Domestic smelting enterprises' export volume was slightly higher than expected. Global visible copper inventory was in a de - stocking channel, and domestic inventory was difficult to accumulate quickly. Copper fundamentals and inventory support remained, and attention should be paid to whether orders showed signs of weakness in the off - season next week [1] Group 3: Aluminum Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 280, and LME inventory decreased by 2100. Other data such as premium and import profit also changed [1] Core View - Supply increased slightly, and aluminum ingot imports were large from January to April. June demand was expected to weaken seasonally, with a supply - demand gap. 6 - 7 months' inventory decline was gentle. Short - term fundamentals were okay, and attention should be paid to demand. The monthly positive spread could be held if the absolute price fell [1] Group 4: Zinc Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 190, and LME inventory decreased by 625. Other data such as premium and import profit also had changes [1][2][3] Core View - This week, zinc prices fluctuated and declined. Supply side: domestic TC was unchanged, and import TC rebounded slightly. Demand side: domestic demand weakened marginally, and overseas demand in Europe was weak. Domestic social inventory fluctuated, and the inflection point of accelerated inventory accumulation was expected to appear in mid - June. The strategy was to maintain a short - allocation idea, hold the long - short spread between domestic and overseas, and pay attention to the reverse spread between months [4] Group 5: Nickel Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 200, and LME inventory decreased by 816. Other data such as premium and import profit also changed [7] Core View - Supply side: pure nickel production remained at a high level, and Russian nickel imports increased in April. Demand side: overall demand was weak, and LME premium strengthened slightly. Inventory side: overseas nickel plate inventory remained stable, and domestic inventory decreased slightly. The opportunity to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio could be continuously concerned [7] Group 6: Stainless Steel Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, 304 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 50, and 430 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 50 [10] Core View - Supply side: production increased seasonally in April, and some steel mills cut production passively since late May. Demand side: mainly rigid demand. Cost: nickel - iron and chrome - iron prices remained stable. Inventory: inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts decreased. The overall fundamentals were weak, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10][11] Group 7: Lead Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, the change in spot premium was 20, and LME inventory increased by 2025. Other data such as premium and import profit also changed [12] Core View - This week, lead prices rebounded from a low level. Supply side: scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and some recycling enterprises increased prices to sell goods. Demand side: battery inventory was high, and Tianneng's production increased, driving spot trading. It was expected that lead prices would fluctuate between 16700 - 17100 next week, and supply was expected to be flat while demand was weak in June [12] Group 8: Tin Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, the change in spot import profit was - 498.60, and LME inventory increased by 20. Other data such as premium and export profit also changed [14] Core View - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply side: short - term复产 in Myanmar's Wa State needed negotiation, and domestic smelting enterprises in some areas cut production. Demand side: solder demand was limited, and terminal demand growth was expected to decline. Short - term, it was expected to maintain a situation of weak supply and demand, and June was a key stage to verify whether the shortage of ore would lead to a shortage of ingots. In the short - term, long - allocation could be held cautiously, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period [14] Group 9: Industrial Silicon Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 65, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 448 [17] Core View - This week, the start - up rate in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang increased slightly. The short - term supply - demand reduction pattern was obvious, and the overall supply and demand of industrial silicon reached a tight balance. In the future, supply had great potential pressure. In the long - term, industrial silicon prices were expected to operate at the bottom of the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises, and the focus was on the cost reduction caused by green - electricity subsidies and the decline of thermal - power prices [17] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price remained unchanged, and the number of registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1746 [19] Core View - This week, lithium carbonate prices rebounded from a low level. Supply side: some production lines resumed production, and overall inventory increased this week. Demand side: downstream demand was weak, and only maintained a safety inventory. In the medium - long term, if the start - up rate of leading ore - smelting integrated enterprises did not decline significantly, lithium carbonate prices would still fluctuate weakly. It was expected to continue to accumulate inventory next week, putting upward pressure on prices [19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with specific trends and suggestions for each commodity [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Federal Reserve continues to hold rates steady, with a trend strength of 0 [6][7][11]. - **Silver**: Expected to continue rising, with a trend strength of 0 [7][11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories support prices, with a trend strength of 0 [13][15]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend strength of 1; Alumina: Monitor production cuts and maintenance, with a trend strength of 0 [16][18]. - **Zinc**: Under medium - term pressure, monitor social inventory changes, with a trend strength of -1 [19][20]. - **Lead**: Expected to trade within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [22][23]. - **Tin**: Tight present but weak future expectations, with a trend strength of 0 [25][29]. - **Nickel**: Concerns at the mine end have cooled, and smelting supply is elastic, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, with supply and demand both weak and prices oscillating at a low level, with a trend strength of 0 [30][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipt de - stocking is accelerating, monitor potential purchases, with a trend strength of 0 [34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are continuously de - stocking, monitor upside potential, with a trend strength of -1; Polysilicon: Upstream restarts production, and the futures price is falling, with a trend strength of -1 [38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and prices will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [45][46][48]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by sector sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [50][53]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [54][56]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand needs to be released, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61]. - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long run [54]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night trading oscillated weakly, and short - term strength is expected to pause; Low - sulfur fuel oil: The adjustment trend continues, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market rebounded slightly [56]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: U.S. biofuel policy and Middle - East geopolitics are both favorable [63]. - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to rise oscillatingly [63]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1**: Oscillating and adjusting [66]. - **Corn**: Expected to trade within a range [68]. - **Sugar**: Consolidating at a low level [69]. - **Cotton**: Monitor the impact of external markets [70]. - **Eggs**: The culling of laying hens is accelerating, waiting for the peak - season bullish factors to materialize [72]. - **Hogs**: Waiting for spot price confirmation, and the cost center for the far - end contracts is moving down [73]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the bottom [74]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Currently in a sideways market, consider holding long positions in the August contract and short positions in the October contract [57]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chip**: Monitor the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at a high level [61]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Expected to trade within a range [62]. - **Log**: The basis is being repaired, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 1 [62][64].

截至2025年6月13日，SHFE铜收盘价78010 元/吨，环比6月6日-1.2%；LME铜收盘价9648 美元/吨，环比6月6 日-0.24%。（1）宏观：贸易冲突对经济负面影响尚未完全显现，仍会压制铜价涨幅。（2）供需：供给端铜矿 扰动增加，5月国内废铜产量同比下降20%；需求端出口备货效应减弱以及国内逐步进入淡季，需求有走弱风 险，预计铜价短期维持震荡，铜价有望在国内刺激政策出台以及美国降息后逐步上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比-3%，LME铜库存环比-6% 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：看好宏观预期改善后铜价上行 （1）国内港口铜精矿库存：截至2025年6月13日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存81.3 万吨，环比上周+8.8%。 （2）全球电解铜 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations this week, with only the ChiNext index showing an increase. The ETF market continued to see net outflows, primarily from large-cap ETFs. The market is transitioning from wide fluctuations to narrower ones, with increased trading volume during this process, indicating potential consolidation in a weak market [4]. Copper Industry - In May, domestic waste copper production was 92,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20% but a month-on-month increase of 5%. The negative impact of trade conflicts on the economy has not fully materialized, which continues to suppress copper price increases. Supply-side disturbances in copper mining have increased, while demand is weakening due to reduced export stocking effects and the domestic off-season [5]. Metal Prices - The price of London gold has reached a historical high. Sunac China’s offshore debt-to-equity swap plan received support from 82% of bondholders. In May, Sunac's total sales amounted to 4.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128%, indicating strong performance [6]. Chemical Industry - Recent safety incidents in chemical parks have led to stricter approval and production regulations for high-risk chemical reactions. Leading companies in the chemical industry, with better safety management and advanced production technologies, are expected to benefit from stable production amid limited growth in high-risk products [7]. Construction Materials - The market performance showed a decline, with the CITIC building materials index down 2.16% and the CITIC construction index down 1.27%. The average price of PO42.5 cement was 365.70 yuan/ton, a slight increase, while glass prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton [8]. Agriculture and Livestock - In the pig farming sector, the industry capacity cycle has bottomed out, but high inventory levels continue to impact market dynamics. Recent policy-driven efforts are accelerating the reduction of inventory, which may lead to a rebalancing of supply and demand. Long-term, the end of inventory reduction could signal the start of a prolonged profit upcycle for the sector [9]. Renewable Energy - The nuclear fusion sector, while far from full commercialization, is seeing increased investment and research due to global military competition. Recent data from May indicates a downward trend in overall renewable energy prices, highlighting ongoing pressures in power supply and demand. Wind power, virtual power plants, and energy storage are identified as promising investment opportunities [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core Views - Currently, downstream consumption is affected by holidays and shows a downward trend. In the short term, the operating rates of copper products and wire and cable may still face pressure. However, the supply at the mine end is still significantly disrupted. The continuously low TC price and the continuous strengthening of silver drive up the copper price. Therefore, for the copper variety, it is still recommended to mainly conduct buy hedging on dips, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On June 10, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 78,920 yuan/ton and closed at 78,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04% compared with the previous trading day's closing. The night session of the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 79,050 yuan/ton and closed at 79,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13% compared with the afternoon closing of the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot Market - In the morning of the previous day, holders began to lower the premium quotes. The mainstream flat copper was quoted at a premium of around 400 yuan/ton, and the prices of some brands in the Shanghai and Changzhou markets dropped to around a premium of 350 yuan/ton, and then were traded at a premium of 320 - 340 yuan/ton after being pressured. The mainstream flat copper was still quoted at a premium of 380 - 400 yuan/ton, with tight supply. Good copper was at a premium of around 420 yuan/ton, mainly Jinchuan, and CCC - P was still in short supply. In the second trading session, some sources such as those from Japan, South Korea, Dajiang PC, and Dajiang HS were at a premium of 300 - 320 yuan/ton. The low prices stimulated downstream procurement, and the market procurement sentiment index increased to 3.18, and the sales sentiment index increased to 3.29. Shanghai copper spot merchants were worried that the premium would continue to fall in the future and actively sold goods to take profits [2] 3.3 Important Information - **Macro and Geopolitical**: India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by the end of the month, and the US and Mexico are close to reaching an agreement on steel import tariffs. Trump called the Los Angeles riots a "foreign invasion", and a US judge rejected California's request to immediately stop the Trump administration from sending troops to the state. Russia and the US will hold a new round of talks in Moscow soon. In China, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism entered its second day [3] - **Mine End**: Talon Metals plans to raise about C$24 million (US$17.6 million) for the development of its Tamarack nickel - copper - cobalt project in Minnesota, but its stock price plunged after investors digested the pricing. The financing will be carried out through two independent financings. Tamarack is a joint - venture project with Rio Tinto, which holds 51% of the equity as the project operator. Rio Tinto has approved the adjustment of the underground development plan of its Oyu Tolgoi copper - gold mine in Mongolia. Due to the continuous delay in the license transfer, the company has suspended the development work in the joint - venture area with Entrée Resources. Rio Tinto said that the capacity ramp - up of Oyu Tolgoi is still progressing as planned, and the target of an average annual copper production of about 500,000 tons from 2028 to 2036 remains unchanged. Depending on the license transfer schedule of Entrée, the company may prioritize the production of Panel 1 or Panel 2 South. Despite the adjustment of the development strategy, Rio Tinto still maintains its 2025 copper production guidance between 780,000 and 850,000 tons [4] - **Smelting and Import**: Zhongkuang Resources Group announced on June 6 that due to the global shortage of copper concentrate supply, its Tsumeb copper smelter in Namibia has temporarily suspended copper smelting operations. The smelter has an annual copper concentrate processing capacity of 240,000 tons and is one of the few facilities in the world capable of processing complex copper ores containing arsenic and lead. It became a Chinese - funded enterprise after being acquired from Dundee Precious Metals in Canada in 2024. Currently, the plant is planning to upgrade its equipment to commercially extract key minerals such as germanium (with a reserve of 746 tons) and evaluate the feasibility of adding a zinc smelting line. In May 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, compared with 438,000 tons in April; from January to May, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 2.169 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.7% [5] - **Consumption**: From May 30 to June 5, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 74.87%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points from the previous week, and 2.27 percentage points lower than market expectations. The year - on - year increase narrowed to 8.16 percentage points. The industry showed typical off - season characteristics. High copper prices suppressed downstream procurement willingness, and combined with the Dragon Boat Festival holiday factor, some enterprises cut production and reduced inventory more than expected. During the same period, the operating rate of the copper cable industry was reported at 76.08%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.59 percentage points. Although it still increased by 2.09 percentage points year - on - year, the phenomenon of weak new order acceptance was prominent. Research showed that as the previous orders were gradually delivered, the new order volume of some enterprises decreased by about 10% month - on - month. Under the dual pressures of high raw material prices and seasonal weakening of demand, the short - term operating rate is expected to remain under pressure [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,000 tons to 120,400 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 496 tons to 33,746 tons. On June 9, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 149,500 tons, a change of 700 tons compared with the previous week [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper: LME has a delivery risk, and copper prices may rise in the short term. The borrow strategy for copper continues to be held, and options are on hold [2][5]. - Alumina: Alumina supply increases, spot trading weakens, and prices are expected to approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity and then fluctuate. If the resumption of production capacity expands further, prices will face more pressure. Currently, hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [7][9][11]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Entering June, the market focuses on the US tariff policy. With domestic aluminum ingot inventories at a low level, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [15][18]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The first - day closing price of cast aluminum alloy is near the spot price. In the short term, the far - month contract is expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [20][23]. - Zinc: Domestic zinc supply shows signs of improvement, and downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventories accumulate. Profitable short positions should continue to be held, and a wait - and - see attitude should be taken for arbitrage and options [25][26][27]. - Lead: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [31][33][34]. - Nickel: The macro situation is complex, and the supply - demand pattern of nickel is weak. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate. A range - trading strategy can be adopted, with a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and a consideration of a range - selling strategy for options [35][43][44]. - Stainless Steel: Stainless steel prices break through the shock range and turn weak. Attention should be paid to when NPI reduces production and prices. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [48][51][52]. - Tin: The supply of tin ore has not been realized, and short - term tin prices may have a limited downside. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [55][59][60]. - Industrial Silicon: In June, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are basically balanced, but the industry has high inventory. Short positions can be arranged above 7500 yuan/ton. Hold Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads and hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [61][63][64]. - Polysilicon: Short - term polysilicon prices are still weak, and the PS2507 contract can gradually take profit and exit. Reverse spreads can be held for far - month contracts, and a wait - and - see attitude should be taken for options [67][69][70]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended, and selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [73][75][76]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,880 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The Shanghai Copper index increased its positions by 11,993 lots to 577,700 lots. Spot copper prices were high, suppressing downstream procurement [2]. - **Important Information**: A copper smelter in Namibia suspended operations due to a shortage of copper concentrates. In May 2025, the production of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, and copper strips decreased to varying degrees [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: China's May exports slowed down, mainly due to the drag of exports to the US. The LME inventory continued to decline, and the delivery risk increased [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: LME has a delivery risk, and copper prices may rise in the short term. The borrow strategy continues to be held, and options are on hold [2][5]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2509 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 2886 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 6029 lots. Spot prices in most regions were stable, with a decline in Xinjiang [7]. - **Related Information**: As of last Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 112.42 million tons, with an operating capacity of 90.65 million tons. The inventory decreased by 2.9 million tons [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The resumption of production capacity and new production capacity led to an increase in alumina supply, and prices are expected to approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity [9][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Alumina supply increases, and prices are expected to decline. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [12][13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract fell 25 yuan/ton to 19,980 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 8696 lots. Spot prices in major regions declined [15]. - **Related Information**: In May 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year. On June 10, the inventory of major markets decreased by 0.1 million tons [15][16]. - **Trading Logic**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations continue. The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs has limited impact on absolute prices. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories are rapidly decreasing [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy was listed today. The AD2511 contract opened at 19,400 yuan/ton and closed at 19,190 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some regions were stable, with a decline in the southwest [20]. - **Related Information**: In May 2025, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased year - on - year, and the industry profit gradually narrowed. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [20][21]. - **Trading Logic**: The raw material supply is tight, and the market is in the off - season. The supply of alloy ingots is sufficient, and the demand is weak [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: The far - month contract is expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [23]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 contract fell 1.27% to 21,845 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 0.79 million lots. Spot trading was weak, and the increase in premiums was limited [25]. - **Related Information**: As of June 9, the domestic zinc ingot inventory increased. The arrival of goods in Shanghai and Tianjin increased, and downstream consumption weakened [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc improves, and downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventories accumulate [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable short positions continue to be held. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [27][29]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2507 contract rose 0.9% to 16,880 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 6808 lots. Spot trading was light [31]. - **Related Information**: As of June 9, the social inventory of lead ingots increased compared with June 3. A large - scale recycled lead smelter in the northwest postponed its resumption of production [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [34][37]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel, NI2507, fell 1300 to 121,390 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 5664 lots. Spot premiums were stable [35][36]. - **Related Information**: An ITSS nickel - iron plant's 14 furnace resumed production. A Swedish battery manufacturer may stop production. Indonesia revoked the mining licenses of four nickel - mining companies [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro situation is complex, and the supply - demand pattern of nickel is weak [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - trading strategy, hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage, and consider a range - selling strategy for options [44][45][46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel, SS2507, fell 195 to 12,435 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 43,534 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were reported [48]. - **Important Information**: Indian stainless - steel enterprises face import pressure and plan to submit an anti - dumping investigation application. A stainless - steel project in Fujian is expected to be completed in mid - August [49][51]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply pressure of stainless steel is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The raw material end provides cost support [51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stainless steel prices turn weak. Attention should be paid to when NPI reduces production and prices. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [52][53]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin, 2507, closed at 263,420 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan/ton or 0.21%. Spot trading was light [55]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations continued. In May, CPI and PPI decreased [57][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: African tin mines are gradually resuming production, but the supply has not been realized. The demand is in the off - season, and tin prices are driven by macro sentiment [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply of tin ore has not been realized, and short - term tin prices may have a limited downside. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 7415 yuan/ton, up 0.82%. Spot prices were stable, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [61]. - **Related Information**: Shaanxi plans to adjust the time - of - use electricity price policy [62]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In June, the demand for industrial silicon increased, and the supply also increased. The industry inventory was high, and the profit was low [63]. - **Strategy**: Arrange short positions above 7500 yuan/ton. Hold Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads and hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [64][66]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 33,955 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. Spot prices were stable [67]. - **Related Information**: Zhejiang encourages virtual power plants and user - side energy storage to participate in response [68]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In June, the production of polysilicon increased, and the inventory decreased. Downstream prices were under pressure, and short - term polysilicon prices were weak [69]. - **Strategy**: Gradually take profit and exit the PS2507 contract below 34,000 yuan/ton. Hold a wait - and - see attitude for options and hold reverse spreads for far - month contracts [69][70]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate, 2507, rose 100 to 60,760 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 7341 lots. Spot prices increased [73]. - **Important Information**: In May, the sales of new - energy passenger vehicles increased [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Lithium carbonate prices rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved. The inventory accumulation expectation is strong [75]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds, do not buy at the bottom. Sell out - of - the - money call options. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [76][77][78].