Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is currently facing a supply expansion cycle, with production growth significantly outpacing demand, leading to concerns about supply contraction and rising costs. Nickel prices have reached a new low since 2021, but the potential for further declines is limited, indicating a possible formation of a temporary bottom [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The recent divergence in the non-ferrous metals market shows copper and aluminum prices reaching new highs, while nickel continues to weaken, primarily due to its cyclical challenges and policy disruptions from key producing regions [1]. - Nickel production in China is projected to reach approximately 360,000 tons from January to November 2025, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 19.34%. This is coupled with relatively slow growth in downstream demand, resulting in a significant accumulation of global nickel inventory, which has exceeded 310,000 tons by early December, marking an increase of over 100,000 tons for the year [2]. Group 2: Cost Dynamics - Nickel prices have fallen below the cost line for purchasing raw materials and certain integrated processes. However, the industry's minimum production costs continue to decline, leading the market to anchor around these lower costs, which diminishes strong cost support at current price levels [2]. Group 3: Policy Variables - Indonesia, the world's largest nickel supplier, has signaled potential changes that could significantly impact future supply. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) has indicated that the mining quota for 2026 may be drastically reduced to approximately 250 million tons, down from 379 million tons in 2025 [3]. - Additionally, the Indonesian government plans to revise the pricing and tax rules for nickel, which will increase mining costs by treating cobalt and other associated minerals as independent commodities subject to royalties. This could lead to a supply gap if the mining quotas are implemented as planned, thereby raising costs across the industry [3]. - The market is highly sensitive to any potential supply contraction, especially after significant price adjustments and valuation compressions, leading to a rapid price rebound based on expectations of rising costs [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of nickel prices will heavily depend on the final outcomes of Indonesia's mining quota approvals and the specific implementation of related tax policies [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The focus on nickel and stainless steel in the capital market is due to changes in the news, including Indonesia's 250 million - ton nickel ore quota target and the consideration of including associated minerals like cobalt in the pricing and taxation system [1]. - The nickel price may fluctuate widely in the short - term due to the game between industry and funds. The key to breaking the situation lies in the implementation of Indonesia's nickel ore news in the first quarter. Options can be considered in trading, and short - term attention can be paid to structural arbitrage opportunities [3]. - The stainless steel market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the cost support center moving up. The core contradiction lies in the raw material end. The price is likely to oscillate in a range and may not return to previous lows, and the direction will depend on the implementation of Indonesia's policies in the first quarter [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 News Impact on Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Quota Event**: If Indonesia's 250 million - ton nickel ore quota is implemented, the expected surplus may turn into a shortage. However, considering the "downstream policy", the implementation time is uncertain, and the first quarter of 2026 is an important window for tracking policy implementation [1]. - **Associated Minerals Event**: Indonesia wants to include cobalt in the pricing and taxation system. It is estimated that the cost of pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy may increase by about 5% - 10% [2]. 3.2 Market Trends - **Nickel**: The previous trading logic was the surplus pressure and the expected commissioning of hydrometallurgy projects. The Indonesian news has increased market volatility. The nickel price will be in a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short - term [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand, but the cost center has moved up due to the impact of nickel - related factors. The price will oscillate in a range, and the upper - limit increase may be restricted by the actual delivery profit [5]. 3.3 Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On December 26, China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 263 tons to 56,725 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 1,146 tons to 255,696 tons [6]. - **New Energy**: On December 26, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed to 5, 8, and 7 days respectively; the precursor inventory changed to 13.0 days; and on December 25, the ternary material inventory changed to 6.9 days [6]. - **Nickel - Iron - Stainless Steel**: On December 25, the SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory increased by 8% month - on - month to 132,000 metal tons. The stainless - steel factory inventory in November was 1.588 million tons, and on December 25, the steel - union stainless - steel social total inventory was 1,005,136 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.55% [6]. 3.4 Market News - Multiple events have occurred, including Indonesia's forestry working group taking over a nickel - ore mining area, China suspending a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia, Indonesia sanctioning mining companies, and Indonesia planning to adjust the nickel - ore production target and pricing formula [7][8][10][11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are experiencing wide - range fluctuations due to capital games in the market [1] - The stainless - steel market has weak supply and demand fundamentals, and is being affected by news about Indonesian nickel mines [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 125,410, down 2,590 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,990, down 85 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 650,804, a decrease of 444,527 from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 249,426, a decrease of 115,671 from T - 1 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 124,150, down 3,050 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 899, up 6 from T - 1. In the stainless - steel sector, the price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) is 13,050, unchanged from T - 1 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Indonesian Nickel Mine News**: The Indonesian forestry working group has taken over a more than 148 - hectare nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons per month. The Indonesian government will sanction 190 mining companies due to non - compliance with regulations. The Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026 and may reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [2][5][6] - **Other News**: China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. The New York Fed President and a Fed governor made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December. China will implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [3][5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [6]

Group 1 - Nickel prices in Shanghai experienced a decline followed by a rebound, with the main contract 2601 dropping to 111,770 yuan/ton before rising above 120,000 yuan/ton due to positive news from Indonesia [1] - Indonesia's nickel mining association announced plans to reduce nickel ore quotas to approximately 250 million wet tons by 2026, significantly lower than the 379 million wet tons in 2025, aiming to control supply and stabilize prices [2] - The Indonesian government indicated that the quota adjustments require rigorous research and are still under internal discussion, leading to uncertainty about the implementation of these policies [2] Group 2 - Demand for nickel in the stainless steel sector remains weak despite some improvement in trading atmosphere, with insufficient end-user purchasing activity [3] - The automotive sector shows growth in new energy vehicle production and sales, but the demand for nickel from ternary battery manufacturers is still weak, with a decline in nickel sulfate production [3] - Supply of refined nickel remains abundant, with social inventory in China reaching 56,988 tons, a 35% year-on-year increase, and LME nickel inventory at 254,388 tons, up 56% year-on-year [4] Group 3 - The cost of producing refined nickel is closely tied to the economic viability of nickel wet process intermediates (MHP), with production costs for MHP and high-grade nickel at 111,026 yuan/ton and 124,817 yuan/ton respectively [4] - The overall market for refined nickel is characterized by oversupply and significant inventory pressure, with short-term price movements dependent on potential supply reductions from Indonesia [4] - Caution is advised regarding the potential for further price rebounds, as the actual implementation of Indonesian policies remains uncertain [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, there is capital game in the market, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, and are disturbed by news about Indonesian nickel mines [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 128,000, and the closing price of stainless - steel main contract is 13,075. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 1,095,331, and that of stainless - steel main contract is 365,097 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 127,200, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 893, and the price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,050 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Indonesian Nickel Mine News**: Due to violation of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month. The Indonesian energy and mineral resources department imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The government plans to revise the benchmark price formula of nickel ore products in early 2026 and may lower the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [2][3][4][5][6]. - **International Trade News**: China suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imported from Russia. The US President Trump may impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1st and implement export controls on "all key software". China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products from January 1st, 2026 [3][4][5]. - **Monetary Policy News**: New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is +1, and that of stainless steel is +1, indicating a moderately positive outlook for both [6].

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a strong rebound due to Indonesia's plans to significantly reduce nickel ore supply quotas for 2026 and potential adjustments to pricing rules, leading to a surge in nickel prices to an 8-month high [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On December 23, LME nickel prices peaked at $15,980 per ton, while on December 24, Shanghai nickel reached 130,880 yuan per ton, marking the highest levels in eight months [1]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract has seen a continuous rise for six trading days, with a maximum cumulative increase of over 17% since hitting a five-year low on December 17 [3]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association (APNI) announced a target of approximately 250 million tons for nickel ore production in the 2026 work plan, a significant reduction from the 379 million tons set for 2025, aimed at preventing further price declines [3]. - The potential revision of the nickel reference price calculation formula may classify by-products like cobalt as independent commodities, which could lead to increased costs in the nickel industry [3][6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the price surge, analysts caution that the nickel market still faces oversupply pressures, with high inventories and weak demand persisting [2][7]. - Current nickel inventories at the London Metal Exchange stand at 253,000 tons, while domestic refined nickel stocks have reached 59,000 tons, indicating a continued oversupply situation [7]. - The demand side is entering a traditional off-peak season, with expectations of reduced production in stainless steel and other sectors, further complicating the supply-demand balance [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The implementation of Indonesia's supply quota reduction is seen as a critical factor for future nickel price trends, with a potential marginal improvement in the supply-demand balance if the quota is enforced [8]. - Analysts suggest that while market sentiment is currently positive, the underlying oversupply may limit the sustainability of the price rebound, indicating a need to monitor the situation closely [8].

Group 1: Report's Core Viewpoints - Nickel faces concerns about Indonesian policies, leading to a sentiment-driven price increase on the trading floor [4] - Stainless steel has a weak supply - demand fundamental situation, and is affected by news of Indonesian nickel mines [4] Group 2: Industry News - On September 12, the Indonesian Forestry Task Force took over over 148 hectares of PT Weda Bay Nickel's mining area due to violations, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 metal tons per month [2] - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [3] - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies for not providing claim and refund guarantees [3] - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued Ministerial Decree No. 17 (2025) regarding RKAB approval procedures, with the 2026 RKAB approval deadline set for November 15, 2025 [5] - Trump announced on October 10 that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1 and implement export controls on "all critical software" [5] - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain nickel - related products through the OSS platform [6] - Indonesian industrial parks are strengthening safety inspections, affecting the production of some nickel wet - process projects, with a production reduction of about 6000 nickel metal tons in December [6] - On November 21, New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [6] - On December 12, China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs decided to impose export license management on some steel products starting January 1, 2026 [6] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the government will revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula in early 2026 and start taxing cobalt as an independent commodity [6] - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [7] Group 3: Fundamental Data Tracking Futures Data - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 123,440, and the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,905 [3] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 386,986, and the trading volume of the main stainless - steel contract is 263,756 [3] Industry Chain - Related Data - The price of 1 imported nickel is 122,250, the Russian nickel premium is 600, and the nickel bean premium is 2300 [3] - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 889, and the nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference is 334 [3] - The nickel plate import profit is 572 [3] - The price of laterite nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) is 55 [3] - In the stainless - steel market, prices of different products such as 304/2B rolls and 304/No.1 rolls vary, with price changes from different time periods [3] - The price of high - carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55, Inner Mongolia) is 8100, and the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,430 [3] - The nickel sulfate premium is 535 [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is +1, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is +1 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices experienced fluctuations in December, initially declining before rebounding due to potential production cuts in Indonesia, which significantly impacts global nickel supply [2][15]. Nickel Mining Policy Disturbances - Indonesia accounts for 60-70% of global nickel production, and recent government plans indicate a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets for 2026 to approximately 250 million tons, down from 379 million tons set for 2025 [3][16]. - The Indonesian government is also set to revise the nickel pricing reference formula, which may increase mining costs by treating associated minerals like cobalt as separate commodities subject to royalties [3][16]. Nickel Ore Import and Pricing - Domestic nickel ore prices remained stable in December, with imports totaling 3.3395 million tons in November, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, primarily sourced from the Philippines [4][17]. - As of December 19, nickel ore inventories at 14 ports in China stood at 14.3914 million wet tons, showing a slight decrease from previous highs [4][17]. Nickel Iron Production Trends - Nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia reached 179,300 tons in November, reflecting a minor month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [6][19]. - Despite a slight rise in high-nickel pig iron prices, production remains under pressure due to high inventory levels and losses faced by some domestic and Indonesian producers [6][19]. Refined Nickel Production and Inventory - Refined nickel production in China saw a significant decline of 14.8% in November, with total production for the year-to-date reaching 381,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.3% [8][21]. - Nickel inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise, reaching 45,280 tons by December 19, indicating a persistent oversupply in the market [8][21]. Demand Dynamics - Demand for nickel, primarily driven by stainless steel and battery production, showed signs of weakness, with stainless steel production in November declining to 1.7617 million tons, a decrease from October [10][23]. - The market for battery-grade nickel sulfate has also softened, with prices dropping to 27,430 yuan per ton, reflecting reduced downstream demand [10][23]. Summary - Overall, nickel prices are expected to stabilize towards the end of the year, influenced by Indonesia's announcements regarding production cuts and pricing revisions. However, the market remains characterized by high inventories and weak demand, particularly in the stainless steel sector, which may limit significant price increases in the near term [11][24].

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices in China have rebounded, leading the domestic non-ferrous sector, with a maximum intraday increase of over 3% as market dynamics shift [9][10] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) announced that the nickel ore production target for the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) is expected to be around 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 379 million tons target set for 2025 [9][10] - APNI also revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to revise the pricing formula for nickel commodities at the beginning of 2026, focusing on including nickel-associated minerals (like cobalt) as independent mineral types for pricing and taxation [9][10] Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - In the traditional industry chain, nickel-iron prices remain stable, and the stainless steel spot market shows improved transaction sentiment, with total social inventory of stainless steel at 1.0636 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.55% [10] - In the new energy industry chain, the decline in nickel prices, combined with year-end factors, has led to further price pressure from low-priced goods, while marginal demand is weakening, with a month-on-month decrease in the production of ternary precursors in December [10] - Domestic primary nickel inventory is showing signs of accumulation again, indicating that the oversupply situation for nickel remains unchanged, with weak demand and high inventory potentially limiting price increases [10]

SHMET 网讯：作为全球最大镍生产国，印尼可能在2026年将产量削减三分之一，以防止价格进一步下 跌。 美国地质调查局数据显示，2024年印尼镍产量达220万吨。菲律宾以33万吨位居第二，俄罗斯产量为21 万吨。 加拿大镍业公司首席执行官Mark Selby本月在伦敦《北方矿工》国际金属研讨会上指出，印尼实施产量 管控源于镍矿品位持续下降。 "印尼将对市场施加压力，"他强调。"由于矿石品位和化学成分持续下降，印尼开始从菲律宾进口矿 石。这相当于沙特阿拉伯从伊朗或伊拉克进口石油。这种供应并非无限，印尼将利用这个窗口期推动镍 价回升至每吨18,000至20,000美元区间。" 价格下跌7-8% 自2022年3月俄乌冲突后，镍价暴涨至每吨48,078美元，过去一年间已回落约7%至每吨14,376美元。此 后价格趋稳，直至2024年5月再度飙升至约21,615美元，随后下跌约34%至当前水平。 供应过剩 BMO资本市场分析师Helen Amos称，全球最大镍生产商Nornickel预测，继今年24万吨过剩后，明年镍 市场将面临27.5万吨的更大供应过剩。她强调Nornickel的评估报告早于印尼镍业协会的公告。 印 ...