| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年08月01日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | 女女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | 女女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | 女女女 | | | 锰硅 | ☆☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ☆☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面弱势震荡。 本周螺纹表需走弱，产量稍有回落，库存有所累积。热卷需求、产量均有所回升，库存继续小幅累积。铁 水产量维持高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，关注淡季需求承接能力。从下游行业看，地产投资继续大幅下滑，基 建增速放缓，7月制造业PMI回落至49.3，内需整体依然偏弱，出口维持相对高位。 ...

德国总理默茨：将与美国就钢铁问题进行谈判，重点是我们可以在不支付过高关税的情况下出口的配 额。 ...

黑色产业链日报 2025/08/01 螺纹钢期货月差（01-05）季节性. source： Wind 元/吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 07/01 09/01 11/01 01/01 -200 0 200 400 热卷期货月差（01-05）季节性. source： Wind 元/吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 07/01 09/01 11/01 01/01 -100 0 100 200 300 | 螺纹、热卷现货价格.. | 螺纹、热卷基差. | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位（元/吨） | 2025-08-01 | 2025-07-31 | 单位（元/吨） | 2025-08-01 | 2025-07-31 | | 螺纹钢汇总价格：中国 | 3402 | 3407 | 01螺纹基差（上海） | 103 | 109 | . 24/08 24/10 24/12 25/02 25/04 25/06 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z000 ...

Group 1 - The black commodity prices have significantly declined this week due to a retreat in market bullish sentiment, with coking coal futures dropping by 7.34% on the first trading day of August and a cumulative decline of nearly 20% for the week [1] - In the coal-coke-steel industry chain, coking coal prices have shown a strong upward trend, with the main factory price for Shanxi coking coal rising by 110 yuan/ton to a range of 1410 to 1480 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 8.24% compared to the previous week [3] - The overall steel market has experienced a rebound in July, with the national steel price averaging 3677 yuan/ton, an increase of 247 yuan/ton or 7.2% month-on-month [4] Group 2 - Analysts expect that infrastructure investment growth will remain resilient in August, driven by increased fiscal support and the commencement of major projects, which may lead to improved supply-demand dynamics in the steel market [5] - Despite the recent price increases, there are concerns about demand sustainability, as social steel inventories have risen by 7.8% month-on-month to 859.9 million tons by the end of July [4] - The market is anticipated to experience a correction in August due to rapid price increases, with potential for a rebound following the implementation of relevant policy measures [5]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 8月1日晚间，山东钢铁发布公告称，公司第八届董事会第十三次会议审议通过了《关于 聘任公司总经理的议案》《关于焦铁一体化运行变革暨撤销焦化厂的议案》。 ...

化工板块普遍走弱 纯碱加速下行 黑色系全面回调 焦煤焦炭高位回落 本周黑色系商品遭遇全面回调，其中焦煤、焦炭成为领跌品种。这主要源于前期政策预期的兑现，投资 者情绪从乐观转向理性。在供应端，国内煤矿生产持续恢复，蒙古进口煤炭口岸通关量回升至高位。需 求端数据显示，当前焦化企业平均生产亏损约50元/吨。在第四轮提涨落地后，焦企已启动第五轮50-55 元/吨的提涨计划。焦煤原料成本持续攀升并未影响焦企的采购热情，原料采购节奏依然保持较快水 平。 钢材市场供需双弱 螺纹钢冲高回落 钢材市场本周同样经历了冲高回落的行情。随着中美贸易谈判和国内半年度中央政治局会议等重大宏观 事件相继落地，市场利多情绪得到释放。最新数据显示，全国建材产量本周下降3.07万吨至414.95万 吨，社会库存增加4.61万吨至551.23万吨，建材表观需求回落18.69万吨至416.52万吨。 从数据来看，当 前钢材市场呈现供需双弱特点：一方面产量持续小幅下滑，另一方面库存略有降低，表观需求同步回 落。 本周国内商品期货市场呈现普跌格局，黑色系商品领跌大盘。受宏观情绪转向和政策预期兑现影响，焦 煤、焦炭期价高位回落，铁矿石震荡下行，黑色系商品 ...

南华期货焦煤焦炭周报 ——情绪回落 2025/08/01 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 张泫：Z0022723 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 周度观点 【盘面回顾】本周焦煤现货涨跌分化，产地部分煤种因资源紧缺上调报价，口岸蒙煤跟随盘面下跌，口岸蒙 5#原煤报价880-900元/吨，安泽低硫主焦报价1450-1500元/吨，周内焦炭现货四轮提涨落地，第五轮提涨已 经开启。本周双焦盘面暴跌，焦煤月间反套走强，焦炭月差波动不大，JM9-1月差-107.5(-48)，J9-1月 差-39(+10)。 【产业表现】 焦煤：本周新增停产矿山，部分煤种资源紧缺，矿山复产速度偏慢。进口方面，本周口岸蒙煤平均通关量维 持在1000车以上，海煤进口利润收窄，但多数煤种仍具性价比，后续到港仍有压力。需求方面，盘面回调部 分期现商解套，现货抛压加重，口岸报价不断下调，焦煤流拍率环比提高，焦煤投机需求表现偏差。焦化厂 维持刚需采购，当前原料库存可用天数偏高，终端继续补库的驱动不足。 焦炭：现货4轮提涨全面落地，即期焦化利润环比修复，但多数焦化厂仍处于微亏状态，增产积极性一般。下 游钢厂维持较高铁水，焦炭现货资源较为紧张 ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎 新纪元期货研究 8/1/2025 黑色系周度报告 石磊 从业资格证号：F0270570 投资咨询证号：Z0011147 时卓然 研究助理 从业资格证号：F03142612 黑色系一周行情回顾 | 品种 | 合约 | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | 基差（未 折算） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025/7/24 | 2025/7/31 | 变动 | 涨跌幅（%） | | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2510 | 3294 | 3205 | -89 | -2.70 | 3370 | 165 | | 热卷 | HC2510 | 3456 | 3390 | -66 | -1.91 | 3410 | 20 | | 铁矿石 | I2509 | 811 | 779 | -32 | -3.95 | 779 | 0 | | 焦炭 | J2509 | 1735 | 1601 | -134 | -7.72 | 1520 | -81 | | 焦煤 | JM2509 | 1199 | 1046 | -153 ...

Company Performance - Antai Group expects a net loss of approximately 95 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant reduction from a loss of 183 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - The company's net loss excluding non-recurring items is projected to be around 91 million yuan, compared to a loss of 185 million yuan in the previous year [2] - The reduction in losses is attributed to the successful transition of the coking business to a processing model, which has mitigated some market risks [2] Business Operations - Antai Group primarily engages in the production and sale of coke and section steel products [2] - The company faced production scale reductions and increased unit costs due to major repairs in the first quarter, while the second quarter saw stable production and sales but declining prices for key products like coal tar and H-beams [2] - The current losses are mainly concentrated in the section steel business, which has not yet shown effective improvement [2] Industry Analysis - The domestic steel billet market has been operating weakly in the first half of 2025, with a 13.78% year-on-year decline in average prices [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the closing price for domestic steel billets was 2,943 yuan per ton, down 5.58% from the beginning of the year [3] - The steel industry has experienced a downward trend since 2022, characterized by weak demand, high inventory levels, and high raw material costs, which have pressured profitability [4] - The market is expected to continue facing imbalances between supply and demand, with intensified competition and increased operational pressures for companies in 2024 [4]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the prices of cyclical products continue to rise, while the domestic production of air conditioners has turned negative [7][8]. - Real estate sales remain sluggish, with a year-on-year decline of 11.0% in the transaction area of 30 major cities, and the air conditioner production for August is expected to decline significantly due to high base effects from the previous year [8][11]. - The service consumption sector shows seasonal improvement, but long-distance passenger transport demand has decreased, indicating that the summer service consumption outlook remains uncertain [7][8]. Group 2 - In the manufacturing sector, the expectation of anti-involution policies has increased, leading to a rise in steel and float glass prices, while cement prices remain under pressure due to weak demand affected by rainy weather [9][26]. - The operating rates in the manufacturing sector show mixed trends, with a notable decline in petroleum asphalt production, while recruitment intentions among companies have slightly improved [37][9]. - The prices of upstream resources, including thermal coal and industrial metals, have continued to rise, driven by increased demand and tightening supply expectations [46][48]. Group 3 - Long-distance passenger transport demand has slightly decreased, while domestic freight and express logistics have shown a decline in activity, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume down by 0.6% and 2.1% respectively [55][57]. - The report highlights that the average price of live pigs has decreased by 1.2% week-on-week, attributed to increased market supply due to rising temperatures [13][19]. - The report notes that the average price of floating glass has increased by 2.2% week-on-week, reflecting improved market demand despite general market conditions [30][26].