Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Nanjing Steel (600282 CH), Hebei Steel Resources (000923 CH), Baosteel (600019 CH), and CITIC Special Steel (000708 CH) with target prices of 7.70, 24.80, 8.15, and 19.29 respectively [4][35]. Core Insights - The global steel supply-demand balance is expected to improve, with a potential shift from surplus to shortage by 2029, driven by geopolitical factors and carbon reduction policies [5][6][9]. - China's steel production is projected to decrease, while demand stabilizes, particularly as the negative impact of real estate demand diminishes [5][19]. - The domestic steel industry is entering a recovery phase, supported by supply constraints and improving demand structures [7][8]. Summary by Sections Global Steel Supply-Demand Dynamics - By 2025, the global steel supply surplus is expected to narrow to 5.74%, with a significant shift in overseas demand dynamics [5][11]. - The global steel production is forecasted to decline slightly from 2026 to 2030, while demand is anticipated to grow, particularly in overseas markets [6][25]. Domestic Steel Market Outlook - China's steel demand is projected to stabilize, with real estate's share of demand dropping from 39.4% in 2020 to 13.2% by 2026 [19][22]. - The domestic steel supply is expected to continue its contraction trend, with a focus on low-carbon production methods [28][31]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the importance of leading steel companies that meet the new industry standards, which are likely to gain competitive advantages in terms of energy consumption and carbon emissions [8][29]. - The anticipated increase in electric arc furnace (EAF) steel production is expected to improve the supply-demand balance in the carbon material sector [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from March 3, 2026, to March 9, 2026, including the prices of rebar in Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan, as well as the prices of hot-rolled coils and cold-rolled coils in Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong. The price changes of hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils from March 3 to March 9 are also given, with increases of 70, 30, 120 for hot-rolled coils in Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong respectively, and 100, 120, 100 for cold-rolled coils in Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong respectively [1]. Output and Inventory - Not provided Basis and Spread - Not provided

2026 年 3 月 10 日 螺纹钢：原料情绪推涨，价格震荡抬升 热轧卷板：原料情绪推涨，价格震荡抬升 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,119 | 40 | 1.30 | | 期 货 | HC2605 | 3,270 | 51 | 1.58 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2605 | 1,576,431 | 1,740,832 | -57,900 | | | HC2605 | 784,875 | 1,292,623 | -106,185 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3220 | 3190 | 30 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in the post - holiday recovery stage, with both production and sales of the five major steel products increasing, and the total inventory continuing to accumulate seasonally, higher than the same period last year [3]. - Due to the production restrictions during the Two Sessions, the production and consumption of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased; while rebar showed a pattern of simultaneous growth in production and sales, with relatively limited inventory pressure and a better supply - demand structure than hot - rolled coils [3]. - Driven by the rise in crude oil prices, the chemical and other related commodity sectors are strong, and the black prices are rebounding. The expected increase in raw material costs is an important support for the recent rebound in steel prices [3]. - In the short term, before the demand is fully restored, the upper limit of rebar price should pay attention to the valley - electricity cost pressure (3138) [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Rebar Futures**: On March 9, 2026, RB2605 was at 3119, up 31 from March 6; RB2610 was at 3147, up 32; RB2701 was at 3174, up 33. The 05 - 10 spread was - 28, down 1; the 10 - 01 spread was - 27, down 1. The 05 - contract rebar disk profit was - 251, down 10; the 10 - contract was - 208, down 6; the 01 - contract was - 199, down 9 [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: On March 9, 2026, HC2605 was at 3270, up 40 from March 6; HC2610 was at 3282, up 38; HC2701 was at 3291, up 28. The 05 - 10 spread was - 12, up 2; the 10 - 01 spread was - 9, up 10. The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit was - 150, down 1; the 10 - contract was - 123, unchanged; the 01 - contract was - 132, down 14 [1]. - **Night - Session Futures**: RB2605 closed at 3118, RB2610 at 3143, HC2605 at 3268, HC2610 at 3281. The rebar 5 - 10 spread was - 25 yuan, the hot - rolled coil 5 - 10 spread was - 13 yuan. The May - contract coil - to - rebar spread was 150 yuan, and the October - contract was 138 yuan [2]. Spot Market - **Rebar Spot**: On March 9, 2026, Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3190 yuan, up 30 from March 6; Nanjing Xicheng was 3340 yuan, up 20; Shandong Shiheng was 3300 yuan, up 10; Tangshan Tanggang was 3100 yuan, up 50. The cheapest delivery product was 3190 yuan [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: On March 9, 2026, Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3180 yuan, up 40 from March 6; Lecong Rigang was 3270 yuan, up 30; Shanghai Rigang was 3260 yuan, up 30. The cheapest delivery product was 3260 yuan [1]. - **Other Spot**: Tangshan billet was 2960 yuan, up 30; East China scrap steel was 2110 yuan, unchanged. Lecong Magang cold - rolled was 3720 yuan, up 20; Shanghai Magang cold - rolled was 3740 yuan, up 20 [1]. Important Information - On March 9, the national main - port iron ore trading volume was 68.70 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous day; 237 mainstream traders' construction steel trading volume was 11.62 tons, a 60.1% increase [2]. - Since March 10, Shagang has raised the scrap steel price by 50 yuan/ton [2]. - From March 2 - 8, the global iron ore shipping volume was 2897.8 tons, a decrease of 442.9 tons from the previous period. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 2342.1 tons, a decrease of 348.5 tons [2]. - From March 2 - 8, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 2697.5 tons, an increase of 467.5 tons from the previous period [2]. - If the normal crude oil passage volume through the Strait of Hormuz is 15 million barrels per day and the replaceable volume of the Saudi - UAE pipeline is 4 million barrels per day, there will still be 11 million barrels per day of crude oil sea - transportation blocked. The global crude oil supply may temporarily drop to 94 million barrels per day, and the supply gap will reach 9.5 million barrels per day [3]. Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to expect a volatile market [4]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The cost of iron ore is rising, leading to a rebound in ore prices [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 784.5 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton (1.62%). The position was 473,257 hands, a decrease of 14,997 hands [1]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of various iron ore types increased. For example, the price of Carajás fines (65%) rose from 896.0 to 905.0 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines (61.5%) rose from 764.0 to 773.0 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special decreased by 1.7 yuan/ton, and the basis against Jimbara decreased by 3.9 yuan/ton. The spread between I2605 - I2609 increased by 1.0 yuan/ton, and the spread between I2609 - I2701 decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - In 2025, China imported 570,000 tons of iron ore from Iran, accounting for 0.45% of the total annual imports. If the US - Iran conflict persists, energy costs may increase and affect iron ore prices through freight [1]. - The 2026 government work report aims to stabilize expectations, adjust the structure, prevent risks, and promote reform. The GDP growth target was adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5% - 5.0%", and the scale of policy - based financial instruments was increased [2]. - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 227.59 tons, a decrease of 5.69 tons compared with the previous period [2]. - Five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real - estate policies, which took effect on February 26, 2026 [2]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, indicating a relatively neutral trend [2].

文字早评 2026/03/10 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、养龙虾热度持续发酵，今天又有地方下场支持 openclaw，同时更多大厂推出 openclaw 一键部署； 2、伊朗警告警告美国和以色列停止"反人类行为"，油价或超 200 美元； 3、价值 1 亿美元的委内瑞拉黄金已运抵美国，据称"将用于工业和商业用途"； 4、宁德时代：2025 年营收 4237.02 亿元，同比增长 17.04%，净利 722.01 亿元，同比增长 42.28%；拟 分红超 300 亿。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：9.47%/6.60%/9.14%/6.94%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：4.05%/6.21%/12.84%/9.68%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：4.22%/7.76%/15.28%/11.36%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.53%/1.46%/2.03%/3.61%。 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好，油价持续上涨、美联储降息预期减弱，美债收益率快速攀升，国内 "两会"延续了适度宽松的货币、更积极的财政政策，建议关注战局转变，注意控制风险。 国债 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 9, the A-share market showed wide - amplitude fluctuations. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all declined, while trading volume increased. The performance of various futures varieties was affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, cost changes, and supply - demand relationships [1]. - The prices of some commodities like coal and oil were affected by the Iran conflict, which in turn influenced related futures prices. For example, the prices of coke,焦煤, and crude oil rose, while the prices of some other commodities showed different trends [2][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 9, the three major A - share indexes fluctuated widely. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.67% to 4096.60 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.74% to 14067.50 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.64% to 3208.58 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 451.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Commodity Futures - **Coke and Coking Coal**: On March 9, the coke weighted index closed at 1750.8, up 64.7; the coking coal weighted index closed at 1190.2 yuan, up 60.1. The cost of coking coal has loosened, the coking profit has improved, and the start - up of coking enterprises is expected to increase. However, the oversupply problem restricts the price elasticity [2][3][4]. - **Crude Oil**: Due to the Iran conflict, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil both exceeded $100 per barrel on March 9 [5]. - **Steel**: The escalation of the Gulf situation has a limited direct impact but a significant indirect impact on China's steel exports. Short - term monthly exports are affected by about 1.1624 million tons. If the situation lasts for more than 3 months, there is a risk of losing the Middle - East market share. Steel prices may be strong in the short term due to the rise in global energy prices and the recovery of domestic demand [5][8]. - **Sugar**: Affected by factors such as the sharp rise in crude oil prices and the significant increase in spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rose on March 9. There may be a supply gap in the global sugar market in 2025/26 and 2026/27 [5]. - **Rubber**: The Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated widely on March 9, rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon. The US tire imports increased in 2025, and the predicted total tire shipments in 2026 will increase [6]. - **Palm Oil**: On March 9, affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the palm oil futures price was at the daily limit for most of the trading time. As of March 6, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China increased [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Internationally, the CBOT soybean main contract fell 0.46% on March 9. In the domestic market, the soybean meal main M2605 contract rose 2.74%. The situation in the Middle - East and the delay in Brazilian soybean harvesting support the price of soybean meal [6]. - **Live Pigs**: On March 9, the live pig main contract LH2605 rose 0.36%. The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [6]. - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper main 2604 contract fell 0.59% on March 9. The domestic electrolytic copper inventory increased, and the spot market sentiment was weak [6]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15245 yuan/ton on the night of March 9. The cotton inventory increased, and the short - fiber price rose as the market entered the peak sales season [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2605 main contract rose 2.28% on March 9. The iron ore shipment continued to recover, the arrival volume continued to decline, and the port inventory was at a high level. The iron ore price was in a volatile trend in the short term [7]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt 2604 main contract rose 8.99% on March 9. As refineries gradually resumed production, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate and shipment volume increased, and the asphalt price may follow the oil price [7]. - **Log**: The log 2605 main contract opened at 801, with a minimum of 801, a maximum of 818, and closed at 802.5 on March 9, with an increase of 272 lots in positions [7]. - **Alumina**: On March 9, the ao2605 contract closed at 2905 yuan/ton. The geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz has increased the cost of imported bauxite, and the supply - demand imbalance in the short term supports the price increase, but the over - supply problem has not been fundamentally reversed [8]. - **Aluminum**: On March 9, the al2604 contract closed at 24950 yuan/ton. The market is worried about the impact of the Middle - East situation on aluminum production capacity. The supply is stable, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - As the policy expectations of the Two Sessions gradually materialize, the black - series commodities will return to the fundamental logic. The current core contradiction in the market lies in the mismatch between the "reality of high inventory" and the "expectation of peak - season demand". In the short term, whether the intensity of demand recovery can match the supply recovery speed will be the key variable, and the market is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot and Basis - **Rebar**: The spot price of rebar and the basis is 101, which is bullish [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: The spot price of hot - rolled coil is 3260 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 10, which is neutral [2] 3.2 Profit and Cost No information provided. 3.3 Capacity and Inventory - **Rebar**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 6.3775 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is bearish [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 3.8161 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year. The social inventory has climbed to the highest level since April 2020, and the inventory pressure is particularly prominent, which is bearish [2] 3.4 Rebar Demand and Downstream No information provided. 3.5 Hot - rolled Coil Demand and Downstream - The downstream consumption volume of hot - rolled coil has increased, but the strength is still insufficient to digest the high - level inventory [2] 3.6 Macro No information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have intensified, leading to an increase in energy valuations and rising shipping costs, which strengthen the cost - side support and drive up the prices of the black building materials sector. However, the current situation in the off - season is lackluster. There are still inventory contradictions in steel, high inventory pressure in iron ore is difficult to alleviate, Mongolian coal imports remain high, the supply - demand surplus in the glass and soda ash market remains unchanged, and the fundamentals of alloys lack support. The expectation for the peak season is still cautious, causing prices to fall after a short - term increase [1]. - With many disturbances such as domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts, if the geopolitical conflicts continue, the futures prices will still have an upward drive. But as it is still the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectation is cautious. Once the external disturbances weaken, there will be a risk of price correction at high levels. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the realization of peak - season demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, while arrivals have significantly increased. The high inventory pressure is difficult to ease in the short term. With the Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, there are uncertainties in the macro environment. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be large. It is expected to oscillate weakly [1][7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply - demand pattern of the scrap steel market has marginally improved, with demand recovering slightly faster than supply. The fundamentals provide some support for prices. Driven by the rise in finished - product prices, scrap steel is expected to follow the upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the rebound in finished - product prices and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [1][9]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, there are disturbances in hot metal production, but there is still long - term rigid demand support for coke. After the first round of spot price cuts, the possibility of continuous multiple - round cuts is small. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. If geopolitical conflicts continue, it may be strong following energy prices; if the conflicts ease, it is expected to oscillate [2][10]. - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal mines is still restricted, but the high imports of Mongolian coal put pressure on the fundamentals. Spot prices are expected to oscillate. The current futures prices are affected by many factors such as domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the conflicts continue, it may follow the upward trend of crude oil prices; if the conflicts ease, it is expected to oscillate [2][11]. 3.3 Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The silicomanganese market has strong supply and weak demand, with insufficient fundamental support. There are resistance in cost - side transmission, and high upstream inventory leads to significant selling - hedging pressure on the futures market. When futures prices rise above the cost line, the risk of correction should be guarded against [2][15]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand drive in the ferrosilicon market is limited. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, weakening the supply - demand relationship. When the futures valuation recovers above the cost line, the risk of high - level correction should be vigilant [2][16]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is in surplus. If there is no obvious improvement in demand after the Lantern Festival, high inventories will always suppress prices [2][5][12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, the price center will decline, and capacity will be reduced [2][5][14]. 3.5 Other Information - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, and the futures market is firm. Spot market transactions have warmed up, but the overall demand is still at a low level. Steel inventory continues to accumulate, and the fundamental contradiction needs time to ease. The futures market has an upward drive but is limited. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand [7]. - **Commodity Index**: On March 9, 2026, the comprehensive index, special index (including commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index), and plate index (such as the steel industry chain index) of CITIC Futures all had different degrees of increase or decline. For example, the comprehensive index increased by 2.93%, the commodity 20 index increased by 2.55%, and the industrial product index increased by 3.87%. The steel industry chain index increased by 2.51% on the day, 3.54% in the past 5 days, - 0.37% in the past month, and 0.37% since the beginning of the year [102][103].

Core Insights - The Middle East is a significant growth market for China's steel exports, with imports from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries expected to exceed 13 million tons by 2025, a 2.2-fold increase from 2021 [2] - The ongoing conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran has disrupted shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, impacting steel exports to the region [3][10] Group 1: Steel Export Growth to the Middle East - China's steel exports to the Middle East are projected to grow significantly, driven by low costs and increasing infrastructure demands in the region [2] - By 2025, the GCC countries are expected to import 1,355 million tons of steel from China, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE being the largest importers at 557 million tons and 546 million tons, respectively [4][10] - The GCC's demand for steel is fueled by major infrastructure projects, including Saudi Arabia's $1.5 trillion investment plan and significant developments in Egypt and the UAE [2] Group 2: Impact of Conflict on Shipping and Exports - The conflict has led to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, affecting shipping routes to Gulf ports, but alternative routes through Oman are available [5][10] - Saudi Arabia and the UAE have logistics strategies that allow them to bypass the Strait, which may mitigate short-term disruptions to steel orders from China [5] - If the conflict continues, reduced steel exports from Iran could benefit China's steel exports, particularly in semi-finished products like steel billets [10] Group 3: Iron Ore Supply Dynamics - Iran's iron ore exports are expected to have a limited impact on global supply, as China's imports from Iran constitute a small percentage of its total iron ore imports [11] - Despite potential disruptions in Iranian iron ore exports due to the conflict, global supply is supported by high inventories in China and increased production from Australia and Brazil [11]