从困境到破局：中国钢铁行业如何 争夺铁矿石定价权？ 联合资信 工商评级三部 中国作为全球最大钢铁生产国，长期面临铁矿石资源受制于外矿、定 价受制于指数、利润受制于矿业巨头的三重困境。为破解这一"矿"世难 题，中国正通过组建"国家队"整合需求、开拓多元化供应体系、构建"人 民币+中国指数"定价新机制三大路径，系统性争夺定价权。当前已取得阶 段性突破，但定价权的重塑是一场长期博弈，未来，中国仍需在提升资源 自主、打破美元惯性、增强金融话语权等方面持续攻坚。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、铁矿石定价权的三重枷锁 作为全球钢铁生产和消费第一大国，中国粗钢产量自 1996 年起长期稳居世界首 位，2024 年约 10.05 亿吨，占全球总产量的 53%。然而，中国钢铁行业的高速发展始 终受制于铁矿石资源这一"命脉"，长期面临"对外依存度高、定价权缺失、利润被 挤压"的多重困境，成为制约钢铁行业高质量发展的"矿"世难题。 1. 资源枷锁：先天不足与高度对外依存 中国钢铁行业庞大的生产规模与国内铁矿石资源的先天不足形成了尖锐矛盾。中 国铁矿探明储量虽居全球第四，但呈现"贫矿多、富矿少"的特征，平均品 ...

2024年中央经济工作会议首次提出"着力实现增长稳、就业稳和物价合理回升"，2025年年末的中央经济工作会 议再次提出"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"。可见，让物价合理回升已经成为 一项重要的政策目标。那么，如何才能让物价合理回升，难点在哪里？本文就此话题展开讨论。 此轮物价低迷周期始于2012年 通胀是经济发展中的常态，因为货币规模总是不断膨胀。但经济体偶然也会出现通缩，通缩通常是经济结构的 扭曲导致的，如商品供需结构、居民收入结构等。2022年以来，我国PPI步入负值区间且无明显的回升迹象， CPI也在0-1%之间徘徊，这就引发了大家的关注。 实际上， 从2012年5月份开始，我国的PPI走势与欧美就发生了分野， 即我国开始步入负值区间，欧美则维持 正增长。而且，我国这轮PPI步入负值区间时间长达4年零5个月，到2016年10月才回正。 为何会PPI为负能那么长时间呢？首先是2011年全球大宗商品价格出现历史性的大拐点，随后黄金等贵金属价 格也出现了大幅回落。其次是我国为应对美国次贷危机扩散对中国经济造成的冲击，2009年出台了为期两年的 大规模基建投资刺激政策，这项政策的传导效 ...

截至发稿，马钢股份市值为326亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——左手"欠款"右手"豪购"！杨陵江收购"国内酒庄第一股"，1919是否重启上 市？"吹太多牛都实现了，但千亿还没实现，我很着急" 每经AI快讯，马钢股份（SH 600808，收盘价：4.23元）12月24日晚间发布公告称，公司第十届第四十 八次董事会会议于2025年12月24日在马钢办公楼召开。会议审议了《关于修订公司治理制度的议案》等 文件。 2024年1至12月份，马钢股份的营业收入构成为：钢铁业占比93.93%，其他业务占比6.07%。 （记者 王晓波） ...

Group 1 - The company, Anyang Iron & Steel (600569.SH), plans to sell its entire 78.1372% stake in Anyang Steel Group Yongtong Ductile Iron Pipe Co., Ltd. and 100% stake in Anyang Yuhe Yongtong Pellet Co., Ltd. to its controlling shareholder, Anyang Iron & Steel Group Co., Ltd. for a total cash consideration of RMB 836.6504 million [1] - Upon completion of this transaction, the company will no longer hold any equity in Yongtong and Yuhe companies [1] - As of the announcement date, the company has received the full payment of RMB 836.6504 million for the equity transfer, marking the completion of this related party transaction [1]

以下文章来源于还是不举手就发言 ，作者周航 还是不举手就发言 . "不举手就发言"V2.0升级版 本文来自微信公众号： 还是不举手就发言 ，作者：周航，题图来自：视觉中国 "MAGA" （Make America Great Again） 在公共舆论里常被当作政治口号。但如果把它放回美国过 去半个世纪的产业与阶层变化中，它反映了一个角度上的社会现实：一大批曾经依靠制造业进入中产 阶级的家庭，发现自己再也找不到同样稳定、可预期的上升通道。它背后真正绕不开的是一个更朴素 的问题——美国是否还能为大量普通人提供体面工作与体面生活的道路。 本文主要讨论这三个问题： 第一，美国制造业曾经如何成为国家力量与阶层结构的重要支撑； 第二，美国为什么在几十年里系统性地失去制造业的就业与社会功能； 第三，在今天的全球化、地缘竞争与技术革命环境下，美国到底"该不该"、"能不能"把部分制造能力 带回本土，而如果制造业无法承担"再造中产"的使命，服务业为什么也很难接住这个任务。 一、美国制造文明的形成：从全 国市场到"世界总工厂" 从制度与组织形态看，美国制造文明早期就具备两个特征： 第一，企业能够以跨州、跨行业的方式整合资源。铁路公 ...

期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 商品情绪偏暖，钢矿触底回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.06%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹供应低位企稳，而需求同样弱稳，淡季基本面未见好转，钢价仍易 承压，相对利好的是成本支撑与政策预期，预计螺纹延续低位震荡运行 态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 一 产业动态 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.09%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热轧卷板供需两端均大幅走弱，产业格局并未好转，库存高位 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the manufacturing and energy-chemical industries will enter a rebalancing phase under multiple structural pressures, with geopolitical changes and trade rules reshaping global layouts. The focus will shift from "betting on growth" to "realizing value" as companies seek sustainable returns through asset optimization, capability restructuring, and operational upgrades [1]. Group 1: Manufacturing "15th Five-Year" Layout - The "15th Five-Year" plan (2026-2030) is a critical period for China's modernization by 2035, emphasizing the need for manufacturing enterprises to anticipate socio-economic and technological trends, plan high-quality development paths, and enhance international competitiveness amid geopolitical tensions [4]. Group 2: Asset Operation Restructuring - Energy and chemical companies must optimize asset layouts through normative analysis to enhance long-term decision-making certainty and return rates, particularly in the context of geopolitical and demand structure changes [7]. Group 3: Digital Transformation - Oil and gas companies face limitations in AI potential due to data quality and system fragmentation. Establishing a high-quality data foundation and governance mechanisms is essential to unlock the value of AI and digitalization in supply chain and operational transformations [9]. Group 4: Chemical M&A Recovery - The chemical industry is witnessing a gradual recovery in M&A activities, driven by overcapacity, weak demand, and tariff uncertainties. Companies and private equity are seeking growth paths through portfolio restructuring and regional diversification [11]. Group 5: Accelerated Power M&A - The demand for large data centers is driving a new wave of M&A in the U.S. power sector, compelling power companies to enhance scale, delivery capabilities, and clean energy supply to compete for core customers [13]. Group 6: Electrification Investment Decisions - The electrification trend brings substantial capital investments, but profitability is not guaranteed. Investment returns depend on asset utilization rates, contract structures, and service models, necessitating a careful balance between infrastructure and digital platforms [15]. Group 7: Renewable Value Realignment - The renewable energy sector is transitioning from a narrative of rapid growth to one focused on capability and return realization. Factors such as subsidy reductions, grid constraints, and rising capital costs are pushing companies to reshape their competitive edge through market-oriented capabilities [17]. Group 8: CCUS Commercial Breakthrough - Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is emerging as a viable decarbonization pathway in high-emission industries, but its adoption is constrained by economic viability and carbon pricing mechanisms. Innovative business models and policy collaboration are crucial for large-scale implementation [19]. Group 9: Industrial Aftermarket Opportunities - The industrial aftermarket is becoming a significant profit engine for OEMs, with growth rates of 7.8% in China and 6.5% globally. Companies can achieve steady and high-quality growth through network expansion, complexity management, and pricing capability upgrades [21]. Group 10: CBAM Cost Restructuring - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is reshaping competitive rules in high-carbon industries like steel. Importers need to proactively manage emissions accounting, supply chain adjustments, and cost transfer mechanisms to mitigate the impacts of visible carbon costs [23]. Group 11: Infrastructure Innovation - Modern construction methods (MMC) are significantly enhancing efficiency, sustainability, and resilience in the global construction industry. Despite higher initial investments, the long-term value of MMC is becoming evident in global capital projects [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are supported by cost at the bottom but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore shipments remain high, with non-mainstream mines as the main source of growth, exerting significant supply pressure and capping price upside. However, iron ore also has upward drivers, and is expected to trade within a range with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the downside of the coking coal futures may be limited due to the relatively high basis. After the third round of coke price cuts, the cost of dry quenched coke warehouse receipts is about 1700 - 1720, and the driving force for coke valuation repair may weaken temporarily [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside potential. The demand for ferroalloys is gradually weakening as downstream hot metal production continues to decline. Ferroalloys may follow steel price movements, and while the upside is limited, the downside is also supported by cost [48] - With the increasing expectation of new soda ash production capacity, the expectation of oversupply is intensifying, and the futures price is breaking through the cost. The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further as glass cold repairs accelerate. High inventories in the upstream and midstream restrict the price [65] - From December to before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to undergo cold repairs, which may affect far - month pricing and market expectations. The near - month 01 contract will follow the reality (delivery logic) and be mainly driven by warehouse receipt games, which may become clearer in late December. Currently, the high inventory in the glass midstream needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [89] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3121, 3136, and 3173 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3287, 3285, and 3301 respectively [4] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and other regions were 3327, 3320, 3130, etc. respectively; the aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and other regions were 3270, 3260, etc. respectively [8][10] - **Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 01 - 05 month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil were - 15 and 2 respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 37 and - 16 respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were 52 and 14 respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 contract spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar were 166, 149, and 128 respectively [4][15] Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 798, 779.5, and 758 respectively; the 01, 05, and 09 contract bases were - 6.5, 11.5, and 33.5 respectively [22] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special were 787, 867, and 669 respectively [22] - **Fundamentals**: As of December 19, 2025, the daily average hot metal production was 226.55, the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63, and the 247 - steel mill inventory was 8723.95 [25] Coal and Coke - **Futures Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coking coal were 165, - 80, and - 85 respectively; the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coke were 219, - 74.5, and - 144.5 respectively [34] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 [37] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 76, the 01 - 05 spread was - 80, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5330 [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 88, the 01 - 05 spread was - 70, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5570 [50] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 soda ash contracts were 1184, 1241, and 1117 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 57, 124, and - 67 respectively [66] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the heavy - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1300, 1400, etc. respectively; the light - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1250, 1350, etc. respectively [66] Glass - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 glass contracts were 1048, 1145, and 941 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 97, 204, and - 107 respectively [90] - **Spot Sales**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions showed different trends [91]

包银高铁这条钢铁动脉不仅重塑了黄河"几字弯"城市群开放维度，更成为内蒙古向北开放战略的新支点。依托高铁串联的区域协同优势，包头外贸进出 口、外资利用实现亮眼增长，本土企业借通道红利加速"出海"，口岸、班列与腹地产业深度联动，推动城市向区域性国际供应链运营枢纽迈进。 战略支点 开启协同新篇 高铁的到来，恰逢包头开放型经济活力显现之时。2025年1至11月，包头市实现外贸进出口总值218.9亿元人民币，其中，出口113.3亿元，进口105.6亿 元，展现出进出均衡、协同发展的健康态势。尤为关键的是，在《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）等自贸协定框架下，2025年1至10月，我市对 RCEP其他成员国进出口总额达70.3亿元，占同期全市进出口总额的36%，已成为我市外贸格局中举足轻重的市场。同年1至11月，我市累计开行中欧班列 4列，货值达9904万元人民币，为畅通国际贸易通道注入新动能。高效的货运通道也为拓展市场提供了直接助力：今年8月，包头组织汽车企业赴俄罗斯开 展经贸洽谈，成功签署了1500台汽车销售合作协议，"包头制造"借道西向、开拓市场的潜力显现。 通道联动 构建价值闭环 装卸设备加紧作业 包银高铁 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,136.00 | +8↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1597429 | +17388↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | 2539 | +13441↑ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -15 | -3↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 82284 | 0.00 HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 149 | -4↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,330.00 | 0.00 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,415 | 0.00 | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,510.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,170.00 | 0.00 | | | RB 主力合约基差 (元/吨) | 194.00 | -8↓ 杭州热卷 ...