Core Viewpoint - The launch of platinum and palladium futures on November 27 marks a significant addition to the green energy metal sector, following the introduction of other commodities like industrial silicon and lithium carbonate, indicating a growing focus on supporting the green economy [1][4]. Market Performance - On the first trading day, platinum futures recorded a trading volume of 66,700 contracts, with an open interest of 7,600 contracts and a transaction value of 29.231 billion yuan. Palladium futures had a trading volume of 34,200 contracts, an open interest of 2,700 contracts, and a transaction value of 13.049 billion yuan, reflecting a stable market entry [1][9]. - The main platinum contract opened at 441 yuan/gram and closed at 430.3 yuan/gram, up 6.25% from the listing benchmark price of 405 yuan/gram. The main palladium contract opened at 377 yuan/gram and closed at 370.6 yuan/gram, up 1.53% from the listing benchmark price of 365 yuan/gram [5][6]. Industry Impact - Platinum and palladium are critical materials in automotive emissions control, wind energy development, and hydrogen energy, with applications in green development accounting for approximately 60% and 80% respectively [4][7]. - The introduction of these futures is expected to enhance risk management for upstream and downstream enterprises in the platinum group metal industry, stabilize operations, and improve market efficiency [3][4]. Strategic Collaboration - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association plans to strengthen its strategic cooperation with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to support the development of futures derivatives for the green industry [3]. - Companies like Jinchuan Group and Yunnan Precious Metals Group are actively participating in the futures market, utilizing these tools for better risk management and operational efficiency [8][10][11]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the futures market will provide a transparent and authoritative pricing mechanism, enhancing the price discovery function and increasing China's influence in the global platinum and palladium markets [7][8]. - The futures contracts are expected to facilitate a more standardized and efficient operation within the industry, promoting a shift towards a more resilient and efficient supply chain [11][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) Hechi Branch is actively supporting the development of the key metals industry in Guangxi by providing financial assistance to a local non-ferrous metal group, thereby facilitating the construction of the Nandan Comprehensive Experimental Zone [1][2]. - ICBC Hechi Branch, in collaboration with its branches in Liuzhou and Nanning, successfully issued a 300 million yuan (approximately 42.5 million USD) working capital loan to a non-ferrous metal group, addressing the urgent funding needs for raw material reserves, production operations, and logistics [2][3]. - The non-ferrous metal group is leveraging its abundant resources of tin, antimony, and indium to transform into a leading enterprise in Guangxi's non-ferrous metal industry chain, focusing on value-added transformation in response to national policy opportunities [2][3]. Group 2 - ICBC Hechi Branch plans to continue enhancing its comprehensive financial services, focusing on the diverse needs of upstream and downstream enterprises in the key metals industry, including mergers and acquisitions, technological upgrades, and green transformation [3]. - The bank aims to optimize service processes and increase credit resource allocation to empower the high-quality development of the key metals industry, contributing to the establishment of the Nandan Comprehensive Experimental Zone and the upgrade of Hechi City into a "strategic highland for key metals" [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The overall domestic stock index shows strong resilience, with the technology sector experiencing a structural recovery and the index initially stabilizing, but the market volume continues to shrink. It is recommended to mainly observe and consider lightly selling put options at support levels [4]. - Treasury bond futures have significantly declined due to multiple negative factors, and the short - term market sentiment is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe, and pay attention to potential factors that may break the market oscillation [6]. - The Fed's Beige Book indicates an unfavorable outlook for the US economy and employment, leading to a further increase in interest rate cut expectations, which drives precious metals prices higher. In the medium - to - long - term, the bull market for precious metals is expected to continue [7][8]. - For various metals in the non - ferrous metal sector, different metals have different market conditions. For example, copper prices are supported by the increasing probability of a December interest rate cut and continuous reduction of social inventory; alumina prices are expected to bottom - out and oscillate; aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation; etc. [11][14][17] - In the black metal sector, steel prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate; coking coal and coke prices are expected to be oscillating and bearish [43][46][49] - In the agricultural product sector, the meal market is expected to oscillate; the live pig market is expected to be oscillating and bearish [55][58] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Wednesday, the A - share market mostly opened lower and oscillated throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and others showed different trends. The TMT sector was active, while the chemical industry corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts rose and fell in line with the index, and the basis discount of the main contracts was somewhat repaired [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption. Overseas, the Japanese Prime Minister made statements about the economy and fiscal policy [3][4]. - **Funding**: On November 26, the A - share trading volume was basically stable, with a total turnover of 1.78 trillion yuan. Northbound funds had a turnover of 2007.07 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The domestic stock index is resilient, but the market volume is shrinking. It is recommended to mainly observe and consider lightly selling put options at support levels [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed significantly lower across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose. Long - term bonds performed weaker [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds were still relatively loose [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the impact of the new bond fund redemption fee regulations and other factors, the short - term market sentiment is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe. Pay attention to potential factors such as the implementation of the new bond fund redemption fee regulations, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale, and the release of November economic data [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that the US economic activity has changed little, but consumer spending has declined, and employment has slightly decreased. European and Japanese economic situations also have certain impacts. The prices of gold and silver rose, with international gold closing at $4162.35 per ounce, up 0.79%, and international silver closing at $53.31 per ounce, up 3.6% [7][8]. - **Outlook**: The US economic and employment situation is not optimistic, and interest rate cut expectations are increasing. In the medium - to - long - term, the bull market for precious metals is expected to continue. In the short - term, factors such as the Fed's officials' attitude, US economic data, and liquidity may cause market fluctuations [8]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping on the Europe Route No relevant content provided. Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 86655 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper was 86705 yuan/ton [11]. - **Macro**: Ukraine has basically agreed to the US - proposed peace agreement, and the probability of a December interest rate cut has returned to 80% [11]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. In October, the output of SMM electrolytic copper in China decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in November [12]. - **Demand**: As of November 20, the weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rods increased, while that of recycled copper rods decreased. The downstream demand for copper shows strong resilience [13]. - **Inventory**: LME copper and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventory decreased [13]. - **Logic**: The probability of a December interest rate cut is increasing, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. The copper price oscillated strongly on the previous day. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 85500 - 87500 yuan/ton, with an oscillating short - term view [14]. Alumina - **Spot**: On November 26, the average spot prices of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and other regions were flat. The supply pattern is gradually loosening, and the spot price is showing signs of weakness [14]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased. The operating rate decreased, and it is expected that high - cost enterprises may reduce production in November [16]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the port inventory decreased, the factory inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts increased [16]. - **Logic**: The alumina market oscillated at a low level, and the futures main contract is testing the support at 2700 yuan/ton. The supply may contract, and the inventory accumulation rate is slowing down. It is expected to maintain a bottom - out oscillating trend [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton, with an oscillating and bearish view [17]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 26, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum was 21400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the market activity and actual transactions were average [17]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may slightly decline in November due to winter environmental protection restrictions [18]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rates of aluminum processing products were divided. High aluminum prices restricted downstream processing [18]. - **Inventory**: As of November 24, the inventory of domestic mainstream consumption areas decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory also decreased [18]. - **Logic**: The electrolytic aluminum market showed a position - reducing oscillation, and the short - term downward momentum weakened. The market presents a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality, and it is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a high - level oscillation [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 21300 - 21800 yuan/ton. If the position continues to be reduced, there may be short - term downward space, with a wide - range oscillating view [19]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On November 26, the average spot prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in different regions were flat [19]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and it is expected that the operating rate will continue to slightly decline in November due to raw material shortages [20][21]. - **Demand**: In November, the demand for traditional automobile consumption showed a mild recovery, but the demand transmission in the terminal field was not smooth, and high aluminum prices restricted downstream procurement [21]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the social inventory increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts of casting aluminum alloy also increased [21]. - **Logic**: The casting aluminum alloy market has stabilized after a high - level correction. The cost is supported, the supply is restricted by raw materials, and the demand shows resilience. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20500 - 21000 yuan/ton. Consider participating in the arbitrage of going long on AD02 and shorting AL02 when the spread is above 650, with a wide - range oscillating view [22]. Zinc - **Spot**: On November 26, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was stable, and the downstream was in a wait - and - see mood [22]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to decrease. The TC of zinc concentrate has declined, and it is expected that the output of refined zinc may decline in November [23]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the three major primary processing industries were basically stable. The domestic demand is stronger than overseas, and the export space is open [24]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased, while the LME inventory increased [24]. - **Logic**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the zinc price oscillated strongly on the previous day. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand has shown structural improvement. It is expected to oscillate [25][26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton, with an oscillating short - term view [26]. Tin - **Spot**: On November 26, the price of SMM 1 tin was unchanged, and the market trading was cold [26]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic tin ore import volume increased, and the tin ingot import volume was at a low level. The tin ingot export volume decreased [27]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In October, the operating rate of soldering tin decreased. The LME inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts, and social inventory all increased [28]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand in South China shows certain resilience. It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on tin prices and continue to hold previous long positions [29]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold previous long positions and consider buying on dips, with a wide - range oscillating view in the near term [29]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased, and the spot of some brands was in short supply [29]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic refined nickel output decreased, but it was still at a high level [30]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating is stable, the demand for alloys is good, the demand for stainless steel is weak, and the demand for nickel sulfate has short - term support but limited medium - term sustainability [30]. - **Inventory**: The domestic and overseas inventories are at a high level, and the bonded area inventory is stable [30]. - **Logic**: The Shanghai nickel futures price continued to slightly recover. The market sentiment improved due to low valuations and upstream production cuts. It is expected to oscillate and recover, but the medium - term supply is abundant, restricting the upward space [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton, with an oscillating and recovering short - term view [31]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 26, the prices of Wuxi Hongwang and Foshan Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel were stable, and the basis decreased [32]. - **Raw Materials**: The nickel ore market is stable, the nickel iron price is under pressure, and the chromium iron market is affected by stainless steel, with a decline in raw material cost support [32][34]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic stainless steel output increased. In November, the production is expected to slightly decrease, but the supply pressure of the 300 - series remains high [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is difficult to reduce, and the warehouse receipts continue to decline [33]. - **Logic**: The stainless steel market oscillated narrowly. The cost support is weakening, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts and nickel iron prices [34][35]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton, with an oscillating adjustment short - term view [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, and the trading was cold [35]. - **Supply**: In October, the lithium carbonate output increased. As of November 20, the weekly output also increased, mainly driven by lithium spodumene extraction [36]. - **Demand**: The demand is generally optimistic, and the production schedules of iron - lithium and ternary materials are expected to continue to increase. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in downstream orders after November [36]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the sample weekly inventory decreased [37]. - **Logic**: The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated widely. The market is in a situation of both strong supply and demand, and the social inventory is decreasing. However, the market divergence may increase [38]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to mainly observe, with a wide - range oscillating short - term view [38]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: On November 26, the prices of polysilicon N - type re - feeding materials and N - type granular silicon were stable [38]. - **Supply**: In November, the domestic polysilicon output is expected to decline to about 120,000 tons. It is expected to increase to about 123,000 tons in December [39]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is expected to decline month - on - month, and each link has an expectation of inventory accumulation [39]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [40]. - **Logic**: The polysilicon spot price is stable, the futures price oscillates upward, and the market presents a reverse market structure. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and cautious trading is recommended [40]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level between 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton [40]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: On November 26, the average prices of industrial silicon in different regions were stable [41]. - **Supply**: In November, the industrial silicon output is expected to decline to about 400,000 tons due to production cuts in the southwest region [41]. - **Demand**: The demand is not optimistic. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline, while the demand for aluminum alloy is good [41]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts decreased, while the factory and social inventories slightly increased [42]. - **Logic**: The industrial silicon现货 is stable, and the futures price oscillates. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and attention can be paid to the arbitrage window [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [42]. Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The steel spot price slightly weakened, and the basis also weakened [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, while the iron ore price was relatively firm. The steel mill profit was slightly repaired but is expected to remain at a low level [43]. - **Supply**: From January to October, the iron element output increased. Recently, the molten iron output decreased but rebounded this period. The output of five major steel products increased [44]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand expectation is still weak, while the export remains at a high level. The overall demand in November increased compared to October [45]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products decreased rapidly [45]. - **View**: It is expected that the steel price will maintain an oscillating trend. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coil is 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton [45]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 26, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased [46]. - **Futures**:

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and coke, and rebar are recommended for range trading; Glass is expected to continue weakening [1][6][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, aluminum, tin, gold, silver, and lithium carbonate are recommended for range trading; Nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [1][9][11][14] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are recommended for range trading; Caustic soda and soda ash are recommended to wait and see; Polyolefins are expected to trade weakly [1][18][20][21] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is expected to trade in a range; Apples are expected to be bullish in a sideways market; Jujubes are expected to be bearish in a sideways market [1][29][31] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs' near - term contracts are expected to adjust weakly at low levels, and long - term contracts should be chased with caution; Eggs are expected to trade in a range; Corn is recommended to hedge on rallies; Soybean meal is recommended for range trading; Oils are expected to trade weakly in the short - term [1][32][33][34] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on market analysis of different industries, including macro - economic data, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It also points out that market trends are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical events, policy changes, and seasonal patterns [5][6][7] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors such as US inflation, retail sales, and European Central Bank warnings, the main market trends rotate quickly, and index futures may trade sideways in the short - term but are long - term bullish [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is currently "insensitive to positives and sensitive to negatives", with narrow interest rate fluctuations and low odds, resulting in reduced attractiveness for allocation. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal mine market is in a continuous price - cutting trend, with weak demand and a strong bearish sentiment. Market participants are mostly waiting and seeing, and it is recommended for range trading [6][7] - **Rebar**: With an unclear outlook for the Fed's December rate cut and a domestic policy vacuum, steel production and demand increased last week, but future demand may decline. Steel prices are expected to trade sideways at low levels due to low valuations and weak drivers [7] - **Glass**: Although there are rumors of production line cold - repairs, most of them are false. Supply remains stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. Glass prices are expected to continue weakening [7] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Geopolitical factors in Congo (Kinshasa) bring uncertainties, but market consumption is improving, and social inventory is decreasing. Copper prices are expected to trade in a high - level range in the short - term, with long - term bullish potential [9] - **Aluminum**: Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities have changed slightly. Demand is entering the off - season, and inventory has decreased slightly. Aluminum prices are expected to trade sideways [10] - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy may affect supply, and the market is in a state of over - supply. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [13][14] - **Tin**: Domestic production has increased, and supply is expected to improve. The semiconductor industry is recovering, but downstream consumption is weak. Tin prices are expected to be supported, and it is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by US economic data and Fed rate - cut expectations, prices are in an adjustment phase. They are expected to be supported in the medium - term and continue to trade sideways in the short - term [15][16][18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is in a tight balance, and demand is strong. Prices are expected to continue a strong sideways trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to mine production and permits [18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth, PVC is expected to trade weakly in a sideways market, but attention should be paid to policy and cost factors [18] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, caustic soda's valuation is suppressed. It is recommended to wait and see [20] - **Styrene**: The overseas blending logic is difficult to change the weak fundamentals in the short - term. It is expected to trade sideways, and attention should be paid to pure benzene prices and crude oil [21][22] - **Rubber**: Domestic production areas are entering the off - season, and overseas floods have affected supply. However, inventory has increased significantly, and prices are expected to trade in a range [22] - **Urea**: Supply has increased, agricultural demand is weakening, and industrial demand is strengthening. Urea prices are expected to trade sideways under high production and inventory [24][25] - **Methanol**: Supply has recovered, demand from the olefin industry has increased slightly, and traditional demand is weak. Inventory has decreased at ports, and prices are expected to stabilize [25] - **Polyolefins**: With weakening supply pressure, some improvement in demand, and compressed production profits, PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade weakly [26][27] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to contract, and demand is weak. With cost support, it is recommended to wait and see [28][29] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global cotton supply and demand are relatively loose, but yarn prices are strong, and cotton prices are expected to trade sideways [29] - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships, PTA prices are expected to trade in a low - level range [29] - **Apples**: Ground and warehouse trading is coming to an end, and prices are expected to be bullish in a sideways market [31] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is uneven, and prices are expected to be bearish in a sideways market [31] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: In the short - term, supply pressure remains, and demand growth is limited. In the long - term, capacity reduction has accelerated but is still above the equilibrium level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term and be cautious about long - term rallies [32] - **Eggs**: Supply is relatively abundant, but short - term supply pressure has eased, and prices are expected to trade in a range with limited upside [33] - **Corn**: Short - term supply pressure has eased, and prices may rebound, but long - term supply is expected to be abundant, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hedge on rallies [34] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean prices are expected to trade narrowly, and domestic supply is sufficient in the short - term. It is recommended for range trading [36] - **Oils**: In the short - term, palm oil production growth has slowed, but export data is poor, and there are many negative factors. Oils are expected to trade in a low - level range. In the long - term, they are expected to trade in a wide range [37][41]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: With dovish Fed statements and reduced geopolitical risks, along with tight copper raw - material supply and strong downstream demand, copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 86,400 - 88,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10,850 - 11,100 dollars/ton [5]. - **Aluminum**: Supported by low global aluminum ingot inventories and supply disruptions, aluminum prices are likely to strengthen after an oscillatory adjustment. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,450 - 21,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,820 - 2,890 dollars/ton [8]. - **Lead**: With increasing lead supply and weakening exports of lead - acid batteries, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [10]. - **Zinc**: Despite short - term tightness in zinc ore due to winter stockpiling, the zinc industry remains in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [12]. - **Tin**: The short - term tin supply - demand is in a tight balance. Considering the high - price suppression of consumption and the marginal alleviation of ore shortages, tin prices are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range for the domestic main contract being 280,000 - 310,000 yuan/ton and for LME tin being 37,000 - 39,000 dollars/ton [14]. - **Nickel**: With strong supply pressure and weak demand, nickel prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish, and the reference range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to the divergence between improving fundamentals and concerns about off - season demand, along with large price fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range for the GFEX lithium carbonate 2605 contract being 93,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton [21]. - **Alumina**: With the recovery of overseas ore shipments and over - capacity in the smelting end, but prices approaching the cost line, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [24]. - **Stainless Steel**: Although the spot market has seen a slight price increase and improved trading, due to weak demand in related fields, stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate [27]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Supported by cost and supply - side policies, but with average demand, its price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term [29]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight US stocks rose, the offshore RMB strengthened, and copper prices oscillated upwards. LME copper inventory decreased by 75 tons to 156,500 tons, and SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 40,000 tons. The domestic copper spot import loss narrowed to less than 800 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: With dovish Fed statements, reduced geopolitical risks, tight copper raw - material supply, and strong downstream demand, copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Supported by overseas supply disruption news, aluminum prices rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 542,000 tons, and domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to decline [7]. - **Strategy**: With low global aluminum ingot inventories and supply disruptions, aluminum prices are likely to strengthen after an oscillatory adjustment [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE lead index rose 0.13% to 17,063 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell 0.5 to 1,985.5 dollars/ton. Domestic lead ingot inventories rose from a low level, and LME lead inventories increased [9]. - **Strategy**: With increasing lead supply and weakening exports of lead - acid batteries, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index fell 0.03% to 22,362 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 2 to 3,007.5 dollars/ton. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [11]. - **Strategy**: Despite short - term tightness in zinc ore due to winter stockpiling, the zinc industry remains in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: On November 26, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract rose 0.89% to 298,500 yuan/ton. Tin smelter production in Yunnan and Jiangxi was stable at a high level, but raw - material supply was tight. Tin demand in emerging fields provided support, and social inventory increased by 311 tons to 8,245 tons [13]. - **Strategy**: The short - term tin supply - demand is in a tight balance. Considering the high - price suppression of consumption and the marginal alleviation of ore shortages, tin prices are expected to oscillate [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, nickel prices rebounded. The SHFE nickel main contract rose 0.95% to 117,260 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel - iron prices continued to fall [16]. - **Strategy**: With strong supply pressure and weak demand, nickel prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index rose 2.50% to 94,469 yuan. The LC2605 contract fell 1.03% to 96,340 yuan [20]. - **Strategy**: Due to the divergence between improving fundamentals and concerns about off - season demand, along with large price fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On November 26, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.22% to 2,747 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.34 to 257,900 tons [23]. - **Strategy**: With the recovery of overseas ore shipments and over - capacity in the smelting end, but prices approaching the cost line, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract rose 0.40% to 12,455 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some markets increased, and social inventory decreased to 1.0717 million tons [26]. - **Strategy**: Although the spot market has seen a slight price increase and improved trading, due to weak demand in related fields, stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The main AD2601 contract of cast aluminum alloy fell 0.1% to 20,695 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions rebounded, and the warehouse receipts increased slightly [29]. - **Strategy**: Supported by cost and supply - side policies, but with average demand, its price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After recent continuous declines, the index is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and technology growth is still the market's main line. The medium - to long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is in a situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, maintaining an overall volatile trend. Pay attention to the impact of stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly increased. The overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue, and the further driving force will be released in December. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and macro - economic conditions, showing different trends of volatility, strength, or weakness. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market News**: Six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued a document to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand; the Cyberspace Administration of China strengthened the management of financial "self - media" and MCN accounts; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced the listing benchmark prices of platinum and palladium futures; US durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: After recent declines, the index may stabilize in the short - term. The long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December; the winning yields of the Ministry of Finance's 2 - period treasury bonds were lower than the ChinaBond valuations. The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data in October was weak, and the year - end social financing growth rate may remain weak. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the fourth quarter, and pay attention to stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Shanghai gold rose 0.37%, and Shanghai silver rose 2.73%. COMEX gold and silver prices are also provided. A Fed governor made dovish remarks, and the market expects an 82.9% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December [8]. - **Strategy**: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: Overnight, US stocks rose, and the offshore RMB strengthened. LME copper prices increased, and domestic copper inventories and premiums showed certain changes [11]. - **Strategy**: Fed officials' dovish remarks increase the probability of a December interest - rate cut. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and downstream demand is strong. Copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Supported by overseas supply disruption news, aluminum prices rose. LME and domestic aluminum inventories and premiums changed [13]. - **Strategy**: Global aluminum inventories are low, and supply disruptions support prices. Although the downstream is entering the off - season, aluminum prices may strengthen after adjustment [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: On Wednesday, Shanghai zinc index prices decreased slightly. LME and domestic zinc inventories and basis are provided [15]. - **Strategy**: Zinc ore imports decreased in October, and the supply of zinc ore is tight during the winter stockpiling period. However, in the long - term, the zinc industry is still in an over - supply cycle. Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: On Wednesday, Shanghai lead index prices rose slightly. LME and domestic lead inventories and basis are provided [17]. - **Strategy**: The supply of lead ingots is increasing, while the demand for lead - acid batteries is declining. Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: On Wednesday, nickel prices rebounded. Spot prices and cost factors are provided [18]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of nickel are under pressure. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish. Wait for the nickel - iron price to stabilize [18]. Tin - **Market News**: On November 26, Shanghai tin prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory information are provided [19]. - **Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance. Considering the high - price suppression of consumption and the marginal improvement of ore shortages, tin prices are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, while the futures price of LC2605 decreased [21]. - **Strategy**: The improvement of fundamentals boosts bullish sentiment, but there are concerns about off - season demand. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Alumina - **Market News**: On November 26, the alumina index decreased. Information on basis, overseas prices, and inventory is provided [22]. - **Strategy**: Overseas ore shipments are expected to increase, and the alumina smelting capacity is over - supplied. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract price rose. Spot prices, raw material prices, and inventory information are provided [24]. - **Strategy**: The spot market price rose slightly, but the demand is affected by the real - estate market. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Yesterday, the price of cast aluminum alloy oscillated. Information on contract prices, inventory, and demand is provided [26]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides support, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts decreased. Information on spot prices, registered warrants, and inventory is provided [29]. - **Strategy**: The steel market is in the off - season, and the export is affected by anti - dumping duties. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term but may improve with policy implementation [30]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Yesterday, the iron - ore main contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and inventory is provided [31]. - **Strategy**: Overseas iron - ore shipments decreased, and the demand for iron ore is stable. The overall inventory is high, and the price is expected to oscillate [32]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the glass main contract price rose slightly. Information on spot prices, inventory, and positions is provided [33]. - **Strategy**: The supply of glass may decrease in December, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [34]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the soda - ash main contract price decreased. Information on spot prices, inventory, and positions is provided [35]. - **Strategy**: The supply of soda ash is in excess, and the demand is divided. The price is expected to be weak [35]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: On November 26, the prices of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts decreased. Information on spot prices, basis, and price trends is provided [36]. - **Strategy**: The market risk appetite has weakened, and the prices of ferrous alloys have decreased. However, with the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, there may be a turning point. It is recommended to pay attention to market sentiment [38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market News**: Yesterday, the industrial - silicon main contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and production is provided [40]. - **Strategy**: The production of industrial silicon is decreasing, and the demand is affected by the polysilicon and organic - silicon industries. The price is expected to oscillate [41]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market News**: Yesterday, the polysilicon main contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and production is provided [43]. - **Strategy**: The production of polysilicon is decreasing, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to platform company progress and price feedback [44]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices rebounded. Thailand's rubber - producing areas were affected by floods, and the inventory of exchange - traded RU was low. The opinions of bulls and bears are different [46]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take a bullish short - term strategy and partially build positions for hedging [50]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: INE crude - oil futures prices decreased. The inventory of refined oil products in the Fujairah port increased [51]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support willingness [52]. Methanol - **Market News**: The prices of methanol in different regions and the main contract increased. Information on basis and spread is provided [53]. - **Strategy**: The positive impact of Iranian device shutdowns is being realized, but the near - term high - inventory pattern remains. It is recommended to wait and see [53]. Urea - **Market News**: The prices of urea in different regions and the main contract changed. Information on basis and spread is provided [54]. - **Strategy**: The urea price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply is high, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to buy on dips [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price of styrene rose. Information on basis, spread, and supply - demand is provided [56]. - **Strategy**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but the demand is in the seasonal peak. The price may stop falling [57]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC01 contract price decreased. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [58]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PVC is in excess, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The EG01 contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [61]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease in December, but the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [62]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA01 contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA may increase, and the demand is affected by inventory and the off - season. The processing fee has limited upward space [64]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: The PX01 contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [65]. - **Strategy**: The load of PX is high, and the downstream PTA is in maintenance. PX may accumulate inventory in November, and the valuation may be adjusted downward [66]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The futures and spot prices of PE decreased. Information on basis, inventory, and supply - demand is provided [67]. - **Strategy**: The price of PE is expected to be volatile at a low level. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is in the seasonal peak [68]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The futures and spot prices of PP decreased. Information on basis, inventory, and supply - demand is provided [69]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PP is under pressure, and the demand is in the seasonal low. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [70]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market News**: Yesterday, domestic hog prices mostly decreased. The supply is high, and the demand is weak [72]. - **Strategy**: The supply of hogs is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse arbitrage [73]. Eggs - **Market News**: Yesterday, the national egg prices were mostly stable. The supply and demand are in a stalemate [74]. - **Strategy**: The spot price of eggs has not followed the futures price increase. The price is expected to be oscillating in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [75]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: CBOT soybean prices rose. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the meal inventory is large [76]. - **Strategy**: The global soybean supply has decreased, and the import cost has a bottom support. The meal price is expected to oscillate [77]. Oils - **Market News**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production increased. The domestic oil inventory may decrease in the future [78]. - **Strategy**: The high production of palm oil suppresses the price. It is recommended to take an oscillating view and turn bullish if production decreases [79]. Sugar - **Market News**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated. The production of sugar in Brazil and India is expected to increase [81]. - **Strategy**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in excess, and the international sugar price may be weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [82]. Cotton - **Market News**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated. The global cotton production is expected to increase [83]. - **Strategy**: The demand for cotton is not too bad after the peak season, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [84].

Group 1 - The company held its 13th meeting of the 10th Board of Directors on November 26, 2025, in accordance with relevant laws and regulations [2] - The board approved a guarantee for its subsidiary, with a maximum amount of $22,423,452 (approximately RMB 159.71 million), to support the execution of a contract with PT Amman Mineral Industri [2][10] - The guarantee will be submitted for shareholder approval [3] Group 2 - The board also approved a management implementation plan for the 2025-2027 term, with one director abstaining from the vote due to a conflict of interest [3][4] - Adjustments were made to the composition of several specialized committees within the board, including the Strategic and Sustainable Development Committee and the Audit Committee [4][5] - The new committee members will serve until the end of the current board's term [5] Group 3 - The subsidiary, China Nonferrous Metal Construction (Indonesia) Co., Ltd., is responsible for providing operational technical services under a contract valued at $44,846,904 [10][11] - The guarantee is structured as a joint liability guarantee, with an additional pledge of 33% equity from a partner as collateral [16][17] - The company has a total external guarantee balance of approximately RMB 2.866 billion, which is 50.58% of its latest audited net assets [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - A-shares lack a clear upward trend due to a relatively vacuum macro environment, with low trading volume. Short - term market divergence will be digested through index fluctuations, waiting for a new driving force to push the index up [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest rate risk warnings suppress the upside [1]. - Market sentiment is volatile, leading to price fluctuations in various commodities such as metals, energy, and agricultural products. 3. Summary by Industry Stock Index - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, with low trading volume. Short - term market divergence will be gradually digested during index fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces for further upward movement [1]. Bond Futures - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest rate risks limit the upside [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices may fluctuate due to repeated market sentiment [1]. - **Aluminum**: High - level fluctuations are expected due to limited industrial driving forces and repeated macro sentiment [1]. - **Alumina**: Production and inventory are increasing, with a weak fundamental pattern. Prices will fluctuate around the cost line, and attention should be paid to ore prices [1]. - **Zinc**: Prices are expected to fluctuate due to short - term repeated macro sentiment [1]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals, but short - term mine premiums are stable. With planned production cuts in Indonesian intermediate products and slightly improved macro conditions, nickel prices have a short - term repair expectation. The medium - to - long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are weakening, and social inventories are increasing. Steel mill production cuts in November are limited. Futures prices will fluctuate, and short - term operations are recommended. Consider light - position participation in long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategies and look for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - **Tin**: Short - term supply has not recovered, and unexpected risks have increased, leading to stronger prices. However, due to existing demand pressure, caution is needed when chasing high prices. The medium - to - long - term outlook is positive, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1]. Precious Metals - With the probability of a December interest rate cut rising again and the news of the Ukraine - Russia peace agreement, precious metals are expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. New Energy - related Commodities - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production capacity is recovering, while southwest production is weaker than in previous years. Polysilicon production is decreasing, and organic silicon is jointly reducing production. There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term, and terminal installation is increasing in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices are fluctuating, and market sentiment has faded due to the long - awaited non - implementation of anti - involution policies [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Steel Products - **Rebar**: Although the valuation is low, the price increase is limited due to the off - season and a short - term macro vacuum. Consider participating in the virtual value accumulation strategy [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract has upward potential. The basis is acceptable, and consider participating in spot - futures positive arbitrage or using option strategies [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Direct demand is okay with cost support, but high supply and inventory accumulation put pressure on the sector, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. Coking Products - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream restocking may start around mid - December. Adopt a short - term strategy for unilateral trading, and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term. Cash out hedging short positions [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil**: The rumor of the US delaying the reduction of import bio - fuel raw material subsidies is refuted, which is bullish for US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic high - pressure crushing may lead to a stable - to - weak basis, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is support from the purchase price of new cotton, but there is no clear upward driver. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and peak - season demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the downward trend of raw sugar [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term supply is tight, leading to a price rebound. However, selling pressure is postponed, so be cautious about being bullish and pay attention to farmers' selling and logistics [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US. If there are no significant weather problems, the market will gradually turn to trading the South American new - crop harvest pressure from December to January. It is recommended to short MO5 on rallies [1]. - **Pulp**: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. Demand recovery needs to be verified, and prices will fluctuate in the short - term [1]. - **Log**: The fundamental situation is weak but has been priced in. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after the sharp decline is low, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Pig**: Spot prices are stable, but there is still room for capacity release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US is increasing sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Follows crude oil in the short - term, with the probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan construction demand being falsified, and sufficient supply of Ma Rui crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: Raw material cost support is strong, the basis is low, and intermediate inventories may increase [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The price of butadiene has limited support, and refinery overhauls may bring a positive outlook. However, high inventory restricts price increases, and the synthetic valuation is low. Pay attention to the subsequent rebound [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene prices support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Follows the decline of crude oil prices, with slightly stronger cost support from rising coal prices, but new device production expectations suppress price increases [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Follows cost fluctuations closely [1]. - **Styrene**: Asian benzene prices are weak, and US pure benzene prices are rising. The price will fluctuate [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient, with cost - end support [1]. - **PP**: High supply pressure, weak downstream demand improvement, and strong cost support [1]. - **PVC**: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weakening, and orders are poor [1]. - **Caustic Soda and Liquid Chlorine**: There are issues such as delivery schedules, overhauls, and inventory pressures. The absolute price is low, and there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **PG**: Geopolitical and tariff relations are easing, and the market is in a range - bound state. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices and the decline of far - month spreads [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: December price increases are lower than expected, and the peak - season price increase expectation has been priced in early. The monthly shipping capacity supply is relatively loose [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic stock index shows strong resilience, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization with reduced volatility. It is advisable to mainly observe the market due to the ongoing repricing adjustment of A - shares after the third - quarter reports, with limited downside risks and shrinking trading volume [4]. - For treasury bonds, the long - term bond is affected by the expected implementation of the new regulations on bond fund redemptions, and the curve slightly steepens. A range - bound operation is recommended for the unilateral strategy, and short - position investors can accelerate the position - shifting pace. Attention should be paid to the cash - and - carry strategy for the 2603 contract [6]. - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term bull market of precious metals is expected to continue. Gold is currently oscillating in the range of $4050 - 4150, and silver is fluctuating in the range of $50 - 52.5. Short - term investors can try to go long on silver if the price rises [10]. - The shipping index (European line) is expected to decline in the short term [11]. - For base metals, the prices of most metals are expected to maintain an oscillating pattern, with different influencing factors and price ranges for each metal [12][15][18][20][23][26][30][33][37][41][43]. - For black metals, steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range, iron ore is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend, and coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate with a downward trend [48][50][53][57]. - For agricultural products, the domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the cost side lacks substantial positive factors [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, A - share major indices opened higher and the market recovered. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87% to 3870.02 points. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and the basis discount of the main contracts was repaired [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, the leaders of China and the US had a phone call, and the situation of Sino - US relations was discussed. Overseas, the US was making progress in promoting the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [3][4]. - **Funding**: On November 25, the A - share market trading volume increased slightly compared to the previous day. The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The domestic stock index is resilient. It is recommended to wait for stabilization with reduced volatility and mainly observe the market [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures mostly closed down. The 30 - year and 10 - year main contracts declined, while the 2 - year main contract rose slightly [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1 trillion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with a net MLF injection of 100 billion yuan in November [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market is in a range - bound stage. A range - bound operation is recommended for the unilateral strategy, and short - position investors can accelerate the position - shifting pace. Attention should be paid to the cash - and - carry strategy for the 2603 contract [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US economic data showed divergence. Retail sales growth slowed down, PPI inflation rose, and private - sector employment decreased. The Fed official supported interest - rate cuts, and the market was cautious, with precious metals oscillating [7][8][9]. - **Outlook**: The long - term bull market of precious metals is expected to continue. Gold is oscillating in the range of $4050 - 4150, and silver is fluctuating in the range of $50 - 52.5. Short - term investors can try to go long on silver if the price rises [10]. - **Funding**: The gold ETF changed little, but the silver ETF had a large - scale inflow of over 250 tons [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - **Shipping Index**: As of November 24, the SCFIS European line index rose 20.7% month - on - month, while the US West route index fell 10.5% month - on - month. As of November 21, the SCFI composite index fell 4% month - on - month [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 20, the global container shipping capacity increased by 7.17% year - on - year. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [11]. - **Logic**: The futures market oscillated, and the spot market was weak. The main 02 contract fell 7.78% [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to decline in the short term [11]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of November 25, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper and SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper increased, while the average premium decreased. Downstream demand returned to the rigid - demand procurement stage [12]. - **Macro**: Ukraine has basically agreed to the peace agreement proposed by the US, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December has returned to 80% [12]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. In October, the output of electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [12][13]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod increased, and the downstream demand showed strong resilience [13]. - **Inventory**: LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while the domestic social inventory decreased [14]. - **Logic**: The probability of a December interest - rate cut has increased, and copper prices slightly rose and then fell. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of copper prices [15]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 85500 - 87500 yuan/ton [15]. Alumina - **Spot**: On November 25, the spot prices of alumina in various regions remained unchanged. The supply pattern is gradually loosening, and the spot price is under pressure [15]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina increased year - on - year. It is expected that the supply will remain in surplus in November, and high - cost enterprises may reduce production [16]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory and factory inventory decreased, while the electrolytic aluminum factory inventory increased. The total registered warehouse receipts decreased [16]. - **Logic**: The market oscillated at a low level, and the supply showed signs of contraction. The overall inventory accumulation rate slowed down, and the market may bottom out and oscillate [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 25, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the premium decreased. Market activity and actual transactions increased after the price decline [18]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may slightly decline in November [18]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rates of aluminum processing products were divided. High prices restricted downstream demand [18]. - **Inventory**: The domestic mainstream consumption area inventory and LME inventory decreased [19]. - **Logic**: The market showed a high - level position - reduction and correction trend, with a combination of positive and negative factors in the macro and fundamental aspects. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 21100 - 21700 yuan/ton. If the position continues to be reduced, there may be further downward space in the short term [19]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On November 25, the average prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions remained unchanged [20]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the operating rate decreased. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decline slightly in November due to the shortage of scrap aluminum [20]. - **Demand**: The traditional automobile consumption season is in progress, but the demand transmission is not smooth, and high prices suppress downstream procurement [20]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory and registered warehouse receipts increased [21]. - **Logic**: The market showed a high - level correction trend. The cost side was strongly supported, and the supply was restricted by raw materials. The demand was affected by high prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [21]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20300 - 20900 yuan/ton. An arbitrage strategy of going long on AD02 and short on AL02 can be considered when the spread is above 650 [22]. Zinc - **Spot**: On November 25, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased. The spot purchase was still based on demand, and the transaction was average [23]. - **Supply**: The processing fees of domestic and imported zinc concentrates decreased, and the profit of smelters was compressed. It is expected that the output of refined zinc will decline in November [24]. - **Demand**: The spot premium increased. The operating rates of the three primary processing industries were basically stable, and the downstream purchased on dips. The export space was opened, which may boost the domestic zinc price [25]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased, and the LME inventory increased [25]. - **Logic**: The fundamentals changed little, and the zinc price oscillated. The supply pressure was relieved, and the demand improved structurally. It is expected to continue to oscillate [26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton [26]. Tin - **Spot**: On November 25, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, and the premium remained unchanged. The market transaction was light [26]. - **Supply**: In October, the import volume of tin ore and tin ingot showed different trends. It is expected that the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar will increase in November, and the import volume of tin ingot will remain at a low level [27][28]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In October, the operating rate of solder decreased. The inventory of LME and the social inventory increased [29]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in South China is relatively stable. It is recommended to maintain a long - position on tin due to strong fundamentals [30]. - **Operation Suggestion**: A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [30]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 25, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased. The supply of refined nickel decreased, and it was difficult to find discounted spot goods [30]. - **Supply**: In the capacity expansion cycle, the output of refined nickel is expected to decrease month - on - month but remains at a high level [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating is stable, the demand for alloys is good, the demand for stainless steel is average, and the demand for nickel sulfate has short - term support [31]. - **Inventory**: The domestic and overseas inventories are at a high level, and the bonded - area inventory is stable [31]. - **Logic**: The market oscillated and recovered. The upstream production reduction and low valuation drove the market. The macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are weak. It is expected to oscillate and recover [32][33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 25, the prices of Wuxi Hongwang and Foshan Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel were stable or increased, and the basis decreased [33]. - **Raw Materials**: The nickel ore market is stable, the price of nickel iron is under pressure, and the cost support of chromium iron is weakening [34]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of stainless steel increased. In November, the production is expected to decrease slightly. The supply pressure is still high [35]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [35]. - **Logic**: The market slightly rose, and the spot market purchase price was stable. The macro situation is temporarily stable, the raw material cost support is weakening, and the supply pressure remains. It is expected to oscillate [36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton [37]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 25, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly. The trade volume improved but was still average [37]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of lithium carbonate increased. The supply is expected to increase, mainly driven by the increase in lithium extraction from spodumene [37]. - **Demand**: The demand is optimistic. The production schedules of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials are expected to increase month - on - month [38][39]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory decreased, and the inventory of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory of other links increased [39]. - **Logic**: The market was strong. The industry is optimistic about next year, and the market sentiment is bullish. The fundamentals remain strong, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [40]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to mainly observe the market [41]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: On November 25, the spot prices of polysilicon remained unchanged [41]. - **Supply**: In November, the domestic output of polysilicon is expected to decrease to about 120,000 tons. It is expected to increase to about 123,000 tons in December [41]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is expected to decline month - on - month, and each link has an expectation of inventory accumulation [42]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased by 4000 tons to 271,000 tons, and the warehouse receipts decreased [42]. - **Logic**: The spot price is stable, the futures price oscillated and rose, and the backwardation structure deepened. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [43]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate between 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton [43]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: On November 25, the spot prices of industrial silicon in various regions remained unchanged [43]. - **Supply**: In November, the output of industrial silicon is expected to decrease to about 400,000 tons, mainly due to the production reduction in Southwest China [44]. - **Demand**: The demand is not optimistic. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decrease, while the demand for aluminum alloy is good [44]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts decreased, while the factory inventory and social inventory increased slightly [44]. - **Logic**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillated. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [45]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [45]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - **Spot**: The futures market strengthened, and the spot price followed. The basis of rebar weakened, and the basis of hot - rolled coil remained stable [45]. - **Cost and Profit**: The prices of coking coal and coke decreased, and the price of iron ore was relatively stable. The profit of steel mills was slightly repaired but is expected to remain at a low level [46]. - **Supply**: From January to October, the output of iron elements increased year - on - year. Recently, the molten iron output decreased, and the output of five major steel products increased [46]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand is weak, and the export is at a high level. The apparent demand in November increased compared to October [46]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased rapidly, and the inventory reduction is expected to continue [47]. - **View**: It is expected that the steel price will oscillate within a range. The rebar is expected to oscillate between 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil is expected to oscillate between 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton [48]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 25, the prices of mainstream iron ore

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Gold prices are expected to continue oscillating, with increased volatility. It is recommended to pay attention to the fluctuations [13]. - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in each stock index [16]. - Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index): The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [20]. - US Stock Index Futures: Adopt a generally bullish approach, but note that the technology sector has not fully reversed its decline. Observe whether the 50 - day moving average can form strong support [25]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market may shift from oscillation to a bearish trend. It is recommended to focus on short - term rebound short - selling strategies [30]. - Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil): The market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Wait for production data to show a decline before expecting a rebound; otherwise, it will likely remain weak [31]. - Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal): The futures price is expected to remain oscillating. Continue to monitor China's actual purchase of US soybeans and the weather in South American production areas [32]. - Agricultural Products (Corn Starch): Starch is expected to remain relatively strong in the short term, following the trend of corn. For price spreads, it is recommended to operate within a range [34]. - Agricultural Products (Corn): The short - term price is expected to remain high and oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see for the near - term contracts and not to short [38]. - Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil): Adopt an oscillating perspective and be cautious about the upward space [43]. - Agricultural Products (Pigs): Investors with existing short positions can continue to hold them and adjust stop - loss and take - profit points. For those not yet in the market, wait for a rebound to enter short positions. Long - term investors can focus on far - month contracts after significant corrections [46]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead): For single - side trading, look for opportunities to stop losses at low prices; for arbitrage and cross - market trading, it is recommended to wait and see [48]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc): For single - side trading, wait and see; for calendar spread arbitrage, hold long positions; for cross - market arbitrage, continue to wait and see [50]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon): The futures main contract is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [53]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon): The short - term price is expected to oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [55]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper): For single - side trading, it is recommended to buy on dips; for arbitrage, continue to pay attention [59]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel): Existing short - position holders can gradually stop losses and take profits, or lightly consider going long on dips. Mid - term evaluation of resource contraction in Indonesia is required [61]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate): Do not chase long positions. If production resumes and demand declines in the off - season, consider lightly shorting on the right side. For the long - term, adopt a strategy of buying on dips [63]. - Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil): Oil prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias in the short term [66]. - Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions): It is recommended to wait and see [68]. - Energy Chemicals (LLDPE): The futures price of PE is expected to oscillate and decline under the influence of supply increase and demand decrease [70]. 2. Core Views - The US economic data in September, including retail sales and employment, showed weakness, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December. The market risk appetite has recovered, and the US dollar index is expected to decline [19]. - The A - share market opened higher and rebounded, but due to uncertainties in Sino - Japanese relations, trading volume remained low, and it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [2][15]. - The bond market sentiment has weakened. With the possible introduction of pro - consumption policies and the impact of the fund fee rate new regulations, it is recommended to look for short - term short - selling opportunities on rebounds [29]. - In the agricultural products market, the supply pressure of oils and fats is large, and the market is expected to be weak; the supply - demand situation of soybean meal is stable, and the price is expected to oscillate; the price of corn and corn starch is expected to be relatively strong [31][32][38]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, the demand for lithium carbonate needs verification, and different trading strategies are recommended for the short - term and long - term; the price of copper is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to buy on dips [5][59]. - In the energy chemicals market, the decline in oil prices is due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and the short - term trend is bearish; the short - term trend of LLDPE is expected to decline under the influence of supply and demand [66][70]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Ukraine agreed to the terms of the peace agreement, and Fed Governor Milan called for significant rate cuts. The US budget deficit in October reached $284 billion [11][12][13]. - Comment: Gold prices oscillated and closed higher. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation and the dovish speech of the Fed governor affected the market. In the short term, gold prices are expected to continue oscillating [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: China's foreign investment in the first 10 months increased by 6.2%, and the Sino - US leaders' call was initiated by the US [14][15]. - Comment: The A - share market opened higher and rebounded, but trading volume remained low due to uncertainties in Sino - Japanese relations. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: Kevin Hassett is considered the leading candidate for the next Fed chair. The US labor market weakened, and retail sales in September increased slightly [17][18][19]. - Comment: The latest US retail data was lower than expected, and the labor market was weak. A rate cut in December is almost certain, and the US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: Kevin Hassett is the leading candidate for the Fed chair. US retail sales in September increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected, and PPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month [21][22][23]. - Comment: PPI was basically in line with expectations, and core PPI growth was slightly lower than expected. Consumption momentum continued to slow down, and the expectation of a rate cut increased. Overall, a bullish approach is recommended, but pay attention to the technology sector [25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - News: The State Council will hold a policy briefing, the central bank conducted 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations and 302.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [26][27][28]. - Comment: The bond market sentiment has weakened. With the possible introduction of pro - consumption policies and the impact of the fund fee rate new regulations, it is recommended to look for short - term short - selling opportunities on rebounds [29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - News: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 25 decreased by 16.43% month - on - month [31]. - Comment: The oil market sentiment was weak, and the supply pressure was large. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Wait for production data to show a decline before expecting a rebound [31]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - News: The net export sales of US soybeans in the week ending October 9 were 785,000 tons [32]. - Comment: The supply - demand situation of soybean meal changed little. The market will focus on the weather in South American production areas, and the price is expected to remain oscillating [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - News: The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on November 25 were 68 yuan/ton, 37 yuan/ton, 110 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton respectively [33]. - Comment: The supply - demand pattern of starch improved, and enterprises remained profitable. Starch futures followed corn higher, and price spreads are expected to operate within a range [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - News: The domestic corn price showed mixed trends, with some regions rising and some falling [35][37]. - Comment: The spot price of corn remained strong, and the futures price continued to rise. The short - term price is expected to remain high and oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see for the near - term contracts [38]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: The transaction volume of first - and second - hand houses in 30 key cities showed signs of stabilizing, and the inventory of the passenger vehicle industry at the end of October was 3.41 million [39][40]. - Comment: Steel prices oscillated and strengthened. The increase in steel prices was related to policy expectations and cost support, but the demand did not strongly support the price increase [41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - News: Huatong Co., Ltd. plans to control costs in the next three years [44]. - Comment: The current spot price of pigs is oscillating and falling, which weakens market confidence in peak - season demand. It is recommended to adopt different trading strategies according to the situation [45]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $28.49/ton [47]. - Comment: The LME lead price was in a downward trend, and the domestic lead price also declined. It is recommended to look for opportunities to stop losses on short positions [47]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $140.2/ton, and Kazakhstan's refined zinc production in October increased [49]. - Comment: The LME zinc price oscillated, and the domestic zinc inventory decreased. Different trading strategies are recommended for single - side trading and arbitrage [50]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - News: The cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity from January to October increased by 43.76% year - on - year, and the single - month installed capacity in October was 12.6 GW [51]. - Comment: The spot price of polysilicon is affected by policy and fundamentals. The price of leading manufacturers is expected to remain stable, and it is recommended to focus on range - trading opportunities [52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - News: In October, the export volume of industrial silicon decreased by 36% month - on - month [54]. - Comment: The export of industrial silicon was lower than expected, and the balance sheet deteriorated. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: India's Adani copper smelter is facing a shortage of ore, and the 2026 long - term processing fee for Chinese copper smelters may be at a historical low [56][58]. - Comment: The copper price is supported by market risk appetite but is also affected by economic data and geopolitical situations. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to buy on dips [59]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: The SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased, and the LME nickel inventory remained unchanged. The production of Indonesia's QMB MHP project is expected to decline [60]. - Comment: The market risk appetite was supported, and the decline in MHP production may improve the balance sheet. It is recommended to adjust short - positions and consider going long on dips [60]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Ganfeng Lithium's 800,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate project is expected to be put into production in 2026 [62]. - Comment: The demand for lithium carbonate needs verification. Do not chase long positions in the short term, and consider different strategies according to the situation [63]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - News: The production of Kazakhstan's largest oil field increased, and the US API crude oil inventory decreased [64][65]. - Comment: Oil prices declined due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan. The short - term trend is bearish, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting [65]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - News: The closing price of CEA on November 25 was 60.16 yuan/ton [67]. - Comment: The impact of the carry - over policy on CEA price may be more emotional than substantial. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - News: China's apparent consumption of PE in October increased by 3.9% month - on - month [69]. - Comment: Under the influence of supply increase and demand decrease, the futures price of LLDPE is expected to oscillate and decline [70].