Group 1 - The US dollar index rose by 0.23% to close at 99.237, reflecting a strong performance against a basket of currencies due to easing trade tensions [1] - The White House confirmed that the 25% import tariff on automobiles will remain, but new measures will prevent the steel and aluminum tariffs from stacking on top of it [1] - The US Commerce Secretary announced that the Trump administration has reached its first trade agreement, although details regarding the involved countries were not disclosed [1] Group 2 - The US international trade deficit for March was reported at $162 billion, exceeding market expectations of $145 billion and the revised $147.8 billion from February [2] - The euro and pound weakened against the dollar, with the euro at 1.1382 and the pound at 1.3402, both lower than the previous trading day [2] - The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and Swedish krona, with notable rates of 142.29 yen, 0.8242 franc, 1.3846 dollar, and 9.6292 krona respectively [2]

在金融市场上，对美国特朗普政府政策操作的过度警惕感逐渐缓解。上周，美国股票、债券和货 币齐齐遭到抛售的"三杀"局面告一段落。但观察市场数据可以看到，市场参与者仍然没有放松紧 张情绪，认为抛售美国可能复燃。本周（4月28日开始的一周）将公布美国就业指标的结果，根 据内容，市场的平静可能会被打破。 上周的外汇市场上，4月以来持续的美元贬值趋势得到了遏制。代表美元对主要货币综合实力 的"美元指数"4月21日从约三年来的底部——97区间，恢复到了99区间。 在交易货币买卖权利的货币期权市场上，应对日元升值和美元贬值的趋势正在缓解。反映各货币 对美元买权需求和卖权需求哪个更大的"风险逆转(Risk Reversal,1个月指标)"在4月25日为-1.5% 以下。自4月3日以来，负值最小。负值越大，表明日元买权需求越大，日元升值警惕感越强。4 月11日，负值一度达到-3.5%以下，这是自2024年8月金融市场混乱以来的最大负值。 金融市场对特朗普的 猜疑没有消失（Reuters） 美国股票、债券和货币齐齐遭到抛售的"三杀"局面告一段落。但观察市场数据可以看到，市场参 与者仍然没有放松紧张情绪。美国经济是导致美国股债汇"三 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the overall industry investment ratings in the given report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economy faces downward pressure as indicated by the significant decline in the Texas manufacturing index, leading to a weaker and volatile US dollar index [1][12]. - From late April to mid - May, treasury bond futures are expected to perform better than in the second half of April, and the strategy of buying on dips has increased cost - effectiveness [2][19]. - Steel prices are likely to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with the market being rational and cautious about administrative production cuts [3][22]. - For zinc, the medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose, and the logic of shorting on rallies is maintained, while attention should be paid to controlling positions due to potential impacts on the domestic manufacturing PMI from tariffs [4][45]. - Oil prices are fluctuating downward as the market awaits further clarification of OPEC+ policies [5][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Texas manufacturing index dropped to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating continued downward pressure on the US economy and a bearish outlook for the US dollar index in the short term [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Treasury has raised its borrowing estimates for the second and third quarters. Although the market has temporarily set aside concerns about long - term debt sustainability, the sustainability of the risk - preference repair needs further observation due to the emerging impact of tariffs [14][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank's deputy governor mentioned the potential for timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The market's core contradiction lies between the un - falsifiable expectation of loose monetary policy and the uncertainty of the implementation time of such policies. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying long - term treasury bond futures on dips [18][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Shanghai's major projects are accelerating. Steel prices are in a volatile pattern. The market is waiting for details of administrative production - control policies. It is recommended to view steel prices with a short - term oscillatory perspective and maintain a hedging mindset on rallies [21][23]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - In the East China market, coking coal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Although there is some support for prices in the short term due to reduced supply and pre - holiday restocking demand, the medium - to long - term trend remains bearish [24][25]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metal (Polysilicon) - After the price decline, attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Southwest China during the wet season and the silicon wafer production schedule from May to June. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contracts [28]. 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metal (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rate of organic silicon monomers is expected to decline. The supply side may see marginal changes due to price drops. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions and wait for clear signals before considering bottom - fishing [29]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - Some salt factories plan to reduce production, but the demand is not expected to exceed expectations. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy in the second quarter [30][31]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metal (Copper) - Macro factors have a relatively neutral short - term impact on copper prices, while the short - term fundamentals are strong, supporting copper prices and the premium. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and pay attention to the Shanghai copper inter - period positive spread strategy [34][35]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metal (Nickel) - It is recommended to wait for dips to buy nickel, pay attention to position management, and hedge beta risks due to potential macro - sentiment fluctuations [38][39]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metal (Lead) - The short - term bearish logic for lead is dominant. It is recommended to focus on shorting opportunities on rallies and take profit on the internal - external reverse spread [40][41]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metal (Zinc) - In the short term, zinc prices are supported, but the medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies near the moving average and maintain a long - term internal - external positive spread strategy [42][45]. 3.2.10 Energy and Chemical (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - LPG prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the impact of tariff policies and cost - profit squeezes [46][49]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemical (Crude Oil) - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term as the market awaits OPEC+ policies [50][51]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemical (Asphalt) - The fundamentals of asphalt are improving, but the impact on prices is limited due to relatively high inventory levels. It is recommended to wait and see [52][53]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemical (PTA) - PTA prices are expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish in the short term, but the rebound height will be restricted by the demand side in the long term [55][57]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemical (Caustic Soda) - After a short - term rebound, caustic soda prices weakened again, but the room for further decline is relatively limited [58][59]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemical (Pulp) - Pulp is expected to be in a weakly oscillatory pattern in the short term due to the large internal - external price gap and lack of significant positive news [60][61]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemical (PVC) - PVC is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term as the short - term macro - impact has subsided [62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemical (Styrene) - Styrene prices are oscillating weakly recently. The supply - demand structure is expected to be negatively affected by reduced supply - side disturbances and weakening downstream demand [63][65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip industry shows a situation of both increasing supply and demand. Although there is no significant short - term contradiction, the supply pressure is increasing, and processing margins are under pressure [65][66]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemical (Soda Ash) - In the medium term, a bearish view on soda ash is maintained, while short - term attention should be paid to the impact of summer maintenance on the 09 contract [67]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemical (Float Glass) - Glass futures prices are expected to remain in a low - level range due to weak reality and lack of positive policies, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [69][70].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index experienced a decline due to market concerns over high tariffs impacting the US economy, with a notable drop in the index by 0.46% to 99.012 [2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Dallas Federal Reserve reported a manufacturing index of -35.8 for April, significantly lower than March's -16.3, contributing to the dollar's decline [2]. - Key macroeconomic data, including Q1 GDP and April non-farm payrolls, are set to be released this week, which may provide further insights into the economic situation [3]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Rates - As of the end of the New York trading session, the euro was valued at 1.1413 USD, up from 1.1380 USD the previous day, while the British pound rose to 1.3426 USD from 1.3329 USD [3]. - The US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and Swedish krona, with notable declines in exchange rates compared to the previous trading day [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the foreign exchange market is currently in a consolidation phase, with expectations of upcoming significant economic data [2]. - The market is awaiting clearer indicators of economic deterioration before the Federal Reserve considers interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need for substantial evidence rather than mere predictions [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the imminent crisis of U.S. sovereign credit and debt, suggesting that the U.S. debt situation resembles a Ponzi scheme on the verge of collapse, with significant implications for global economic stability and trade [1][3][4]. Group 1: Current U.S. Debt Situation - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, accounting for 123% of GDP, significantly exceeding the internationally recognized warning line of 60% [3][4]. - The report predicts that by 2025, the U.S. may face a debt crisis, with approximately $9.3 trillion of public debt maturing, representing one-third of total debt [3][4]. - Interest payments on U.S. debt are projected to exceed military spending for the first time in fiscal year 2024, with interest expenses expected to grow by 8% to $952 billion in 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Policies - Trump's policies, including "reciprocal tariffs" and extreme fiscal tightening, have led to a significant rise in one-year inflation expectations to 4.3%, the highest level in nearly two years, and a drop in consumer confidence to 67.8, down 11.8% year-on-year [1][3]. - The combination of tariffs and tax cuts is expected to exacerbate social inequality, with the lowest 20% of earners facing an average annual loss of $1,125, while the top 1% could gain an average of $43,500 annually [1][3]. Group 3: Global Financial System and Dollar Dependency - There is a growing trend of "de-dollarization," with global central banks reducing their holdings of U.S. debt, leading to a decline in the dollar's share of global official foreign exchange reserves to 57.4%, the lowest in 30 years [5][6]. - The report indicates that the collapse of U.S. debt is not the end of the international financial system but rather the beginning of a long process of restructuring the global credit system, with emerging economies and a multipolar currency system reshaping the order [6][7]. Group 4: Recommendations for China - The report suggests that China should proactively lead global cooperation to mitigate the risks associated with U.S. debt, including establishing a monitoring mechanism for U.S. debt defaults and enhancing financial infrastructure [6][7]. - It emphasizes the need for China to diversify its foreign reserves, increase holdings in gold and emerging market assets, and enhance domestic consumption to counteract global demand shrinkage [6][7].

人民币汇率弹性增强 今年以来，我国外汇市场运行总体平稳。人民币汇率双向浮动，保持相对稳定。4月份以来，美方单边 主义、保护主义行径引发国际金融市场剧烈波动，人民币对美元汇率先贬后升，与4月3日美宣布对贸易 伙伴加征所谓"对等关税"前的水平大体相当。 今年以来，外部环境发生深刻变化，国际金融市场波动加大。我国有力有效应对外部挑战，经济保持回 升向好，外汇市场运行总体平稳。国家外汇管理局数据显示，今年一季度，我国外汇市场交易理性有 序，跨境资金呈现净流入。 跨境资金净流入 一季度，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境资金净流入517亿美元，处于历史同期较高水平。 "主要渠道跨境资金流动平稳有序。"国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌介绍，货物贸易资金净流 入较快增加。一季度，我国外贸克服外部压力呈现较强韧性，货物贸易项下跨境资金净流入2063亿美 元，同比增长1.2倍。外资配置人民币债券增多。2月份至3月份外资净增持境内债券269亿美元，同比增 长84%。服务贸易、外资企业利润汇出总体平稳。一季度，服务贸易跨境资金净流出同比增长25%，其 中旅行项下资金净流出增长12%。 近一段时间，境外机构普遍看好我国债券市场，增持债券 ...

IMF首席经济学家Gourinchas：国际货币基金组织未观察到外汇市场存在压力的迹象。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, which recently broke the $3420 mark, is attributed to a combination of factors including threats to the Federal Reserve's independence from Trump and the impact of his tariff policies on investor confidence in the U.S. economy [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have increased over 30% this year, driven by a decline in confidence in the U.S. economy and rising demand from central banks [1][3]. - The dollar index has fallen to its lowest point in three years, contributing to the rise in gold prices, which surged nearly 9% following Trump's announcement of comprehensive tariffs [3]. - Citibank predicts that gold prices could reach $3500 in the next three months due to investment demand outpacing mining supply [3]. Group 2: Stock Market Performance - In contrast to gold, the U.S. stock market is experiencing a downturn, with the S&P 500 index down 11% since early 2025 and only a 5% increase over the past year [4]. - The volatility in nearly all assets, except gold, reflects investor anxiety and a disconnect between gold and stock market performance [4]. Group 3: Economic Signals and Investment Strategies - The rise in gold prices may signal economic warning signs, as the U.S. government faces challenges in fiscal sustainability and rising debt servicing costs [5]. - Investors are advised to monitor the dollar's performance, as future interest rates and core fundamentals will likely dictate currency movements [5]. - Despite the current market conditions, some analysts believe that stocks remain the best long-term investment, while gold serves as a diversification tool amid increasing market uncertainty [4][5].

Group 1: Dollar's Plunge - The dollar index has fallen below 99, marking its lowest level since April 2022, with a daily drop exceeding 1% and a cumulative decline of nearly 6% in April, and over 9% year-to-date [1][3] - The rapid decline of the dollar has led to a surge in other currencies like the euro and yen, which have significantly appreciated against the dollar [3][4] - The drop in the dollar's value has prompted a massive influx of capital into gold, as investors seek refuge from the declining dollar [4] Group 2: Policy Impact - Trump's tariff policies are identified as a key trigger for the dollar's decline, disrupting the previous balance of the dollar's global circulation [5][8] - The imposition of high tariffs has resulted in reduced exports from China to the U.S., leading to a decrease in the dollar's circulation and demand in international markets [8][9] - Trump's erratic policy announcements have created uncertainty, causing investors to flee from dollar assets in search of more stable investments [9] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Economic indicators in the U.S. have been showing signs of weakness since January, with a continuous decline in the Citi Economic Surprise Index [10][11] - Major U.S. corporations are reporting disappointing earnings, particularly in the tech and retail sectors, contributing to investor concerns about the future economic outlook [13] - The overall sentiment among investors is shifting away from dollar assets due to fears of an impending economic recession in the U.S. [13] Group 4: Global De-dollarization - A global trend of de-dollarization is emerging, with countries like Russia leading the charge by selling off U.S. Treasury bonds and shifting trade settlements to currencies like the euro and yuan [14][17] - Other nations, including India and Iran, are also reducing their reliance on the dollar for trade, opting for local currencies instead [17] - This de-dollarization movement is seen as a response to the risks associated with over-reliance on the dollar, particularly in light of potential U.S. financial sanctions [17] Group 5: Impact on Individuals and Markets - The dollar's decline is expected to affect ordinary consumers, especially those planning to study or travel abroad, as the value of the dollar fluctuates [18][19] - The volatility of the dollar may lead to increased prices for commodities priced in dollars, impacting stock markets and investor confidence [21] - The real estate market may experience mixed effects, with potential capital outflows in cities heavily reliant on foreign investment, while a stronger yuan could attract some foreign capital [21] Group 6: Future Outlook - The long-term implications of the dollar's decline remain uncertain, but it is clear that the global economic and financial landscape is undergoing significant changes [23] - Investors are advised to consider diversifying their portfolios away from dollar assets, potentially including gold and other stable currencies [23] - The current situation presents both challenges and opportunities, emphasizing the need for investors to remain vigilant and adaptable in their strategies [23]

Group 1: Currency Market Developments - The UK government announced a suspension of global tariffs on 89 products, saving UK businesses at least £17 million annually [1] - Japan's Prime Minister warned that US tariffs could disrupt the global economic order, with no current plans for additional budgets or retaliatory tariffs [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor stated that monetary policy will be guided by the sustainable achievement of a 2% inflation target, without pre-judging economic conditions [1] - Japan's ruling party official emphasized that Japan should not use its US Treasury holdings as a bargaining tool in trade negotiations, highlighting the need to strengthen the yen through corporate strength [1] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister indicated that foreign exchange issues will be handled by the Finance Minister and the US Treasury Secretary [1] Group 2: International Trade and Economic Policies - Argentina has abandoned its crawling peg exchange rate mechanism, allowing the peso to float within a range [1] - The Monetary Authority of Singapore adjusted the slope of the Singapore dollar's nominal effective exchange rate while maintaining the width and midpoint unchanged [1] - US Commerce Secretary expressed no concerns regarding the dollar [2] - The Federal Reserve's Kashkari noted that the risk of economic recession depends on the progress of trade agreements [2] - Reports suggest that the actual savings from the US government's efficiency department may be less than the claimed 15% [2] - The EU is considering establishing a defense fund to alleviate defense debt issues [2] - Germany's incoming Chancellor stated that Trump's tariff policies have increased the risk of a financial crisis and advocated for a US-EU free trade agreement [2]