证券研究报告 | 2025年11月18日 中国黄金国际（02099.HK） 优于大市 Q3 业绩表现亮眼，公司兼具高业绩弹性及高成长性 公司发布三季报：前三季度实现营收 9.25 亿美元，同比+99.83%；实现归母 净利润 3.41 亿美元，同比扭亏；其中，Q1/Q2/Q3 分别实现归母净利润 0.85/1.15/1.41 亿美元，Q3 环比+22.43%。公司 Q3 利润环比再次实现明显 提升，主要得益于金铜价格上涨以及甲玛矿销售折价系数提升。 核心产品产销量数据方面：公司前三季度实现黄金产量 4.02 吨，实现黄金 销量 4.21 吨。其中长山壕前三季度黄金产量约 2.12 吨，黄金销量约 2.34 吨；甲玛矿前三季度黄金产量约 1.90 吨，黄金销量约 1.87 吨。公司前三季 度实现铜产量 5.41 万吨，实现铜销量 5.33 万吨。公司 2025 年产量指引： 长山壕黄金产量指引约 2.4-2.6 吨；甲玛矿黄金产量指引约 2.15-2.3 吨， 铜产量指引约 6.3-6.7 万吨。全年的维度来看，公司金、铜产量超过指引的 可能性较高。 核心产品成本数据方面：长山壕前三季度黄金单位生产成本1639 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share bull market is far from over, with "Bull Market 1.0" expected to peak in spring 2026, followed by a potential "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global competition is intensifying, necessitating a shift in mindset for A-shares to embrace competitive thinking, which will drive market dynamics [1] - The transition of Chinese residents' asset allocation towards equities is still in its early stages, indicating further potential for A-share liquidity improvement [1][2] Group 2: Bull Market Phases - "Bull Market 1.0" is anticipated to reach a peak in spring 2026, with a subsequent transition to "Bull Market 2.0" in the latter half of 2026 [2] - The second phase, "Bull Market 2.0," is expected to be a comprehensive bull market driven by improvements in fundamental cycles, emerging industry trends, and increased global influence of China [2][3] Group 3: Profit Forecasts - Predictions for 2026 indicate two significant milestones: the first effective rebound in profitability for all A-shares in five years and the first double-digit growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in five years [3] - Forecasted year-on-year growth rates for net profit attributable to shareholders are 7% for 2025 and 14% for 2026, with substantial quarterly growth expected [3] Group 4: Sector Trends - The transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" will see high-dividend defensive stocks outperforming, while the latter phase will focus on cyclical recovery and growth sectors [3] - Key structural themes for 2026 include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends with opportunities in AI, and enhanced manufacturing influence [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations in early trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3949.83 points, down 0.56% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13145.00 points, down 0.43%, and the ChiNext Index closed at 3091.87 points, also down 0.43% [1] Sector Performance Top Performing Sectors - The Internet e-commerce sector led the gains with an increase of 2.70%, achieving a total trading volume of 331.26 million hands and a net inflow of 31.52 billion [2] - The Cultural Media sector rose by 2.25%, with a total trading volume of 3271.69 million hands and a net inflow of 30.33 billion [2] - The Kitchen and Bathroom Appliances sector increased by 1.66%, with a trading volume of 224.39 million hands and a net inflow of 0.65 billion [2] - The IT Services sector saw a rise of 1.64%, with a trading volume of 2398.60 million hands and a net inflow of 21.29 billion [2] Underperforming Sectors - The Battery sector experienced the largest decline at -4.13%, with a trading volume of 2759.67 million hands and a net outflow of 88.07 billion [2] - The Coal Mining and Processing sector fell by 4.08%, with a trading volume of 1622.64 million hands and a net outflow of 30.66 billion [2] - The Steel sector decreased by 3.16%, with a trading volume of 2494.42 million hands and a net outflow of 28.21 billion [2] - The Industrial Metals sector dropped by 2.98%, with a trading volume of 2695.32 million hands and a net outflow of 42.11 billion [2]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月18日 中国黄金国际（02099.HK） 优于大市 Q3 业绩表现亮眼，公司兼具高业绩弹性及高成长性 公司发布三季报：前三季度实现营收 9.25 亿美元，同比+99.83%；实现归母 净利润 3.41 亿美元，同比扭亏；其中，Q1/Q2/Q3 分别实现归母净利润 0.85/1.15/1.41 亿美元，Q3 环比+22.43%。公司 Q3 利润环比再次实现明显 提升，主要得益于金铜价格上涨以及甲玛矿销售折价系数提升。 核心产品产销量数据方面：公司前三季度实现黄金产量 4.02 吨，实现黄金 销量 4.21 吨。其中长山壕前三季度黄金产量约 2.12 吨，黄金销量约 2.34 吨；甲玛矿前三季度黄金产量约 1.90 吨，黄金销量约 1.87 吨。公司前三季 度实现铜产量 5.41 万吨，实现铜销量 5.33 万吨。公司 2025 年产量指引： 长山壕黄金产量指引约 2.4-2.6 吨；甲玛矿黄金产量指引约 2.15-2.3 吨， 铜产量指引约 6.3-6.7 万吨。全年的维度来看，公司金、铜产量超过指引的 可能性较高。 核心产品成本数据方面：长山壕前三季度黄金单位生产成本1639 ...

Core Viewpoint - Western Mining's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 50.96% but a recent decline of 4.37% over the past five trading days [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 18, Western Mining's stock price was 22.75 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 54.213 billion CNY [1] - The stock has seen a trading volume of 1.25 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.23% [1] - Year-to-date, the stock has increased by 50.96%, while it has decreased by 4.37% in the last five trading days [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Western Mining reported a revenue of 48.442 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.90% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 2.945 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.80% [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of November 10, the number of shareholders for Western Mining was 116,000, an increase of 0.09% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder was 20,543, a decrease of 0.09% [2] - Since its A-share listing, Western Mining has distributed a total of 10.723 billion CNY in dividends, with 6.911 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] Group 4: Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the third-largest circulating shareholder, holding 111.2 million shares, a decrease of 5.1634 million shares from the previous period [3] - Southern CSI 500 ETF was the eighth-largest circulating shareholder, holding 24.32 million shares, down by 525,900 shares from the previous period [3] - Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. has exited the list of the top ten circulating shareholders [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the bull market is not over, with a significant shift in Chinese residents' asset allocation towards equities still in its early stages [3][34][51] - The transition from "following" to "leading" in external circulation is a key theme, highlighting the need for A-shares to embrace competitive thinking [3][12][20] - The report outlines a two-phase bull market, with "Bull Market 1.0" expected to peak in spring 2026 and "Bull Market 2.0" potentially starting in the second half of 2026 [4][6][7] Group 1: Competitive Landscape - Global competition is intensifying, and A-shares must adopt a competitive mindset to navigate this environment [3][20][22] - The shift in external circulation from "following" to "leading" reflects China's growing competitiveness and the need to enhance its global influence [3][12][19] - The report suggests that the A-share market can reflect the outcomes of competitive events, impacting pricing and risk preferences [3][22] Group 2: Asset Allocation Trends - The report introduces a "resident asset allocation migration degree indicator," indicating that the migration towards equities is still in its early phase, with significant potential for growth [34][36] - Historical data shows that the peak of equity allocation occurred in 2021, followed by a decline until 2024, with a rebound expected in 2025 [36][51] - The report highlights that the accumulation of profit-making effects in the A-share market is undergoing a qualitative change, which will improve conditions for capital inflow over time [3][34][51] Group 3: Bull Market Phases - "Bull Market 1.0" is characterized by a focus on technology sectors, particularly AI, which may face short-term adjustments but is expected to continue its long-term trend [4][6][7] - "Bull Market 2.0" is anticipated to be a comprehensive bull market driven by cyclical improvements in fundamentals, emerging industry trends, and increased asset allocation towards equities [4][6][7] - The report predicts that by mid-2026, a clearer visibility of supply-demand dynamics will emerge, supporting the transition to "Bull Market 2.0" [4][6][7] Group 4: Industry Outlook - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including technology, manufacturing, and emerging industries, which are expected to benefit from cyclical improvements and policy support [4][6][7] - The anticipated recovery in the manufacturing sector and the emergence of new demand sources are crucial for the overall market outlook [4][6][7] - The report suggests that the transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" will involve a shift in investment focus from high-growth technology stocks to cyclical and value-oriented sectors [4][6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Innovation New Materials has shown a positive stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 24.41%, indicating strong market interest and potential growth opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 17, Innovation New Materials' stock price increased by 2.17%, reaching 4.71 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.60 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 17.691 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has experienced a net inflow of 28.8184 million CNY from major funds, with significant buying activity from large orders [1]. - The stock has shown a 2.39% increase over the last five trading days, a 13.77% increase over the last 20 days, and a 10.05% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Company Overview - Innovation New Materials, established on June 7, 1996, and listed on November 29, 2001, specializes in the research, development, and production of aluminum alloys and related products [2]. - The company's revenue composition includes 61.01% from bars, 23.66% from aluminum rods and cables, 7.18% from sheets and foils, 5.82% from profiles, and 2.16% from other sources [2]. - As of October 31, the number of shareholders decreased by 3.68% to 71,200, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 3.82% to 20,622 shares [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Innovation New Materials reported a revenue of 58.716 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 709 million CNY, down 10.28% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 1.796 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 831 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders include the Southern CSI 500 ETF, which is a new shareholder holding 22.7312 million shares [3].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations this week, with the consumer and banking sectors showing slight strength, while the lithium battery and industrial metals sectors performed well [6] - The technology sector showed a mixed adjustment, with humanoid robots and AI core listed companies experiencing significant cumulative gains this year, contributing to recent adjustments in these sectors [7] Sector Analysis - The humanoid robot sector faced downward pressure due to uncertainties regarding large-scale production timelines, leading to investor concerns about the industry's future [7] - The AI sector saw a general weakening in both application and hardware aspects, with fears of an AI industry bubble arising from the contrasting performance of upstream and downstream companies in the US market [7] - Despite the overall weakness, some leading AI companies maintained strong stock performance due to continuous improvements in large model capabilities and optimistic industry prospects [7] Battery Sector Insights - The battery sector saw a strong increase this week, with lithium mines, lithium batteries, and solid-state battery concepts leading in gains [8] - The surge in overseas energy storage demand, driven by expectations of increased electricity consumption from data centers, contributed to the sector's strength [8] - Recent price increases in lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte additives were noted, with prices doubling since mid-October, attributed to supply-demand mismatches [8] Economic Indicators - The October CPI data turned positive, boosting market confidence, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high of 4034.08 points, supported by stable performance in consumer stocks, banks, and non-ferrous metals [9] - However, the market adjusted significantly on Friday due to weakness in technology stocks, indicating that the A-share market is expected to maintain overall fluctuations with structural hotspots in the future [9]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a weekly increase of 1.07% from November 10 to November 14, ranking among the top in all primary industries [1][2] Summary by Category Performance Overview - Precious metals sector rose by 2.77%, energy metals by 2.47%, and industrial metals by 1.56% during the week, while small metals and new materials sectors declined by 1.42% and 3.22% respectively [1][2] Industrial Metals - The U.S. government resumed operations, alleviating liquidity concerns, which led to a strong but volatile performance in industrial metals. The further upward movement in prices will depend on domestic and international supply-demand dynamics [2] - As of November 14, copper prices were reported at $10,846 per ton (up 1.41% week-on-week) and 86,900 CNY per ton (up 1.12% week-on-week). Supply concerns were heightened as Codelco's copper production fell by 7.2% year-on-year [3] Aluminum - Domestic sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 50%, coupled with rising overseas energy prices, contributed to a strong performance in aluminum prices. As of November 14, LME aluminum was priced at $2,859 per ton (up 1.41% week-on-week) and 21,840 CNY per ton (up 0.99% week-on-week) [4] - The theoretical demand for electrolytic aluminum increased, with social inventory rising by 0.45% to 629,900 tons [4] Precious Metals - The resumption of U.S. government operations eased liquidity concerns, influencing short-term price movements in precious metals. As of November 14, COMEX gold closed at $4,084.40 per ounce (up 1.91% week-on-week) and SHFE gold at 953.20 CNY per gram (up 3.47% week-on-week) [5] - The market anticipates a reduction in interest rate expectations, with projections dropping from 95% to around 50% for a December rate cut, impacting gold prices [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 1.07% from November 10 to November 14, outperforming the overall market index [14]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to maintain a bullish outlook in the medium term despite short-term fluctuations due to changing interest rate expectations [4][49]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, while the non-ferrous metals sector ranked 16th among 31 sectors, outperforming the index by 1.25 percentage points [14]. - Precious metals increased by 2.77%, energy metals by 2.47%, and industrial metals by 1.56%, while small metals and new materials declined by 1.42% and 3.22%, respectively [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices rose with LME copper at $10,846 per ton (up 1.41%) and SHFE copper at ¥86,900 per ton (up 1.12%). Supply remains weak, with Codelco's September production down 7.2% year-on-year [2][31]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum reached $2,859 per ton (up 1.41%), driven by increased demand from the electric vehicle sector, where sales exceeded 50% of total new car sales in October [3][35]. - **Zinc**: Prices fell with LME zinc at $3,015 per ton (down 1.70%) and SHFE zinc at ¥22,470 per ton (down 1.30%). Zinc inventories increased, indicating a bearish trend [41]. - **Tin**: LME tin rose to $36,860 per ton (up 2.90%) due to reduced exports from Indonesia, which halved in October [45]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,084.40 per ounce (up 1.91%), while SHFE gold was at ¥953.20 per gram (up 3.47%). The resumption of U.S. government operations alleviated liquidity concerns, boosting prices [4][49]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish comments and the lack of supporting economic data have led to a decrease in December rate cut expectations from 95% to around 50%, causing some price corrections in precious metals [50]. Inventory Changes - Copper inventories decreased, with LME at 135,700 tons (down 0.13%) and SHFE at 109,400 tons (down 4.89%) [29][34]. - Aluminum inventories increased slightly, with LME at 552,400 tons (up 0.57%) and SHFE at 114,900 tons (up 1.38%) [35].