Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a significant drop in new installations of solar and wind power in June, suggesting that the supply-side pressure is easing, and green electricity is expected to experience a reversal [2][10]. - The increase in the proportion of renewable energy is expected to stimulate the demand for flexible power generation, benefiting coal-fired power plants and aiding in the absorption of renewable energy [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the power sector, particularly coal-fired power companies with resilient quarterly performance and leading firms in flexible coal-fired power transformation [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of June 30, the total installed power generation capacity in the country reached 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%. Solar power capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, up 54.2%, and wind power capacity was 570 million kilowatts, up 22.7% [7][13]. - In June, new installations of solar and wind power dropped significantly, with solar power adding 14.36 GW and wind power adding 5.11 GW, down 78.56% and 21.21% respectively from May [7][13]. - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 162 hours year-on-year to 1504 hours [7][13]. Electricity Demand - In June, the total electricity consumption increased by 5.4%, with the first, second, and third industries, as well as residential electricity consumption, showing growth rates of 8.7%, 2.4%, 7.1%, and 4.9% respectively [7][10]. - The third industry's electricity demand showed resilience, with internet and related services growing by 27.4% year-on-year [7][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coal-fired power companies such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, and Baoneng New Energy, as well as leading firms in flexible coal-fired power transformation like Qingda Environmental Protection [2]. - It also suggests prioritizing undervalued green electricity operators, particularly in the Hong Kong market, and companies with high stock project ratios and short-term revenue certainty [2]. Market Performance - The report notes that during the week of July 21-25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.67%, while the electricity and public utilities sector index fell by 0.03%, underperforming the broader market [55][56].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the long-term excess returns of the real estate index are correlated with trends in sales growth and price growth, indicating a cyclical nature in the market [2][7][10] - In the past year, the real estate index has shown a pulsing zigzag pattern characterized by short cycles, high volatility, and strong policy correlation, driven mainly by short-term stimulus policies rather than fundamental recovery [2][10][11] - The average excess return during the last six upward phases of the index reached 13%, with an average duration of 18 days, suggesting potential for new upward movements if positive signals are released from upcoming policy meetings [2][10][11] Group 2 - The report discusses the "anti-involution" theme, emphasizing the orderly exit of backward production capacity to achieve high-quality industry development, with a focus on sectors like steel, pig farming, and cement [30] - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, with an investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to create opportunities in related sectors such as cement, steel materials, and hydropower equipment [33] - The AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) sector is projected to experience high growth driven by policy and demand resonance, with a target market scale exceeding 280 billion yuan by 2028, indicating strong investment potential in AI infrastructure [37][41]

Group 1: Hydropower Project - China has officially begun construction on a giant hydropower station on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, which is expected to provide clean energy equivalent to three Three Gorges dams, generating nearly 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually [1] - The energy output from this project is comparable to adding 150 million tons of oil to China's energy supply each year, while also contributing to a reduction in carbon emissions [1] Group 2: Regional Concerns - The project has faced strong opposition from India, which fears that China may use the hydropower station as a tool for "water hegemony," manipulating water flow during droughts and floods [4] - India has a history of similar actions, such as the Farakka Barrage incident, leading to concerns that its own past actions are being projected onto China [4]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of the Xunwu Pumped Storage Power Station in Jiangxi, with a total installed capacity of 1.2 million kilowatts, has commenced as a key project under China's "14th Five-Year Plan" for pumped storage development [1] Investment and Economic Impact - The total investment for the project is 7.967 billion yuan [1] - The project is expected to generate 15.1 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, sufficient to meet the electricity needs of 750,000 households [1] - It is projected to boost GDP by 20 billion yuan during the construction period and create over 3,000 jobs, with annual tax revenue exceeding 100 million yuan [1] Environmental Benefits - The power station will enhance the peak-shaving capacity of the Jiangxi power grid by 3 million kilowatts [1] - It is estimated to save 470,000 tons of standard coal and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 1.17 million tons annually, with a total lifecycle emission reduction exceeding 65 million tons [1]

关于本栏目 2025年上半年，国内生产总值660536亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.3%。 截至目前，全国31个省份中上半年经济数据均已公布。从GDP增速来看，23个省份超过或与全国5.3%的平均线持平，8个省份未能跑赢全国大盘。 高频数据难懂？挖掘信息不易？【国金高频图鉴】每周一期，与您一同从高频数据库中抽丝剥茧，看懂全球经济的新变化。如需底层数据库，欢迎联系国金宏观团 队。 各省份 GDP 增速分化 雅下水电正式开工 " 反内卷 " 支撑期货价格集体回升 上半年信贷资金流向 中美直接贸易往来减弱 01 #本期Headline# 各省份GDP增速分化 出口波动较大，其中对美国出口依赖度最高的山西（对美出口占总出口的24%）上半年出口下滑34.8%，跌幅明显。相反，出口大省中除广东外，江苏、浙 江、山东、上海等地出口均维持韧性。另外，中部省份如河南、湖北等地出口表现亮眼。 江、山东、上海等地出口均维持韧性。另外，中部省份如河南、湖北等地出口表现亮眼。 02 雅下水电正式开工 经济总量排名靠前省份中，除广东外，经济前五省份增速均高于全国平均水平，合计拉动GDP增长2.1个百分点左右，是国内经济增长的压舱石。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the yield of the 10-year active Treasury bond rose from 1.664% last Friday to 1.664% + 6.85bp = 1.7325%. The "anti-involution" policy and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project extended the stock-bond seesaw last week to the commodity-bond seesaw this week. By referring to the supply-side reform from 2015 - 2017, it is predicted that the PPI year-on-year will steadily recover but is unlikely to turn positive this year, and the recovery of the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock requires time and central bank support. It is expected that the interest rate will mainly show a downward trend this year [1][18]. - Last week, overseas markets generally continued the previous week's trend, with US Treasuries falling and US stocks remaining flat. The short - end of US Treasuries rose less than the long - end. Considering the impact of Trump's tariff policy on prices and the support of stablecoins for the short - end of US Treasuries, and based on the new data, the report analyzes the US economic data in July 2025, including PMI, housing sales, unemployment benefits, and EIA crude oil inventory. The "Shadow Fed Chairman" and Trump are pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. The probability of a 25bp interest rate cut in July remains at 4.1%, while the probability of a rate cut in September has increased to 61.9% [3][7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 One - Week Views 3.1.1 Impact of "Anti - Involution" Policy on Commodity - Bond Seesaw - This week (July 21 - 25, 2025), the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond rose 6.85bp from 1.664% last Friday to 1.7325%. The start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and the "anti - involution" policy affected the bond market. The yield increased on most days, with a slight decline on Friday [1]. - By looking back at the supply - side reform from 2015 - 2017, there was a one - year lag between the rise in commodity prices and bond yields. It is predicted that the PPI year - on - year will recover but not turn positive this year, and the recovery of the social financing stock growth rate needs time and central bank support. It is expected that the interest rate will mainly decline this year [18]. 3.1.2 Outlook for US Treasury Yields After Data Release - Last week, overseas markets continued the previous week's trend, with US Treasuries falling and US stocks remaining flat. The short - end of US Treasuries rose less than the long - end. The report analyzes the July 2025 US economic data: the service PMI decreased, the manufacturing PMI increased; the EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 316.9 million barrels; the annualized month - on - month decline in existing home sales in June was 2.7%; the number of initial jobless claims decreased, and the number of continued jobless claims increased. The "Shadow Fed Chairman" and Trump are pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. As of July 25, the probability of a 25bp interest rate cut in July remained at 4.1%, and the probability of a rate cut in September increased to 61.9% [3][7]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - In terms of open - market operations, from July 21 - 25, 2025, the net investment was 1295 billion yuan. The money market interest rates generally increased compared to last week [40]. - The yields of various bonds and the term spreads of bonds also changed. For example, the yields of 1 - year and 3 - year Treasury bonds increased, and the term spreads of some bonds also changed [48]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Steel prices significantly increased. For example, the price of HRB400 20mm rebar nationwide rose from 3321 yuan/ton on July 18 to 3472 yuan/ton on July 25, an increase of 151 yuan/ton [55]. - The official prices of LME non - ferrous metal futures all increased. For example, the price of LME 3 - month zinc rose from 2782 dollars/ton on July 18 to 2845 dollars/ton on July 25, an increase of 2.26% [57]. - The total commercial housing transaction area increased across the board [56]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 61 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 3757.55 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 828.46 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 2929.09 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of issuance amount were Zhejiang, Chongqing, and Guangdong [68]. - One province issued special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts, with Henan issuing 118.6481 billion yuan. From January 1 to July 25, 2025, the total issuance of such bonds nationwide was 18364.35 billion yuan [71]. - The total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds this week was 19.58 billion yuan, with Chongqing, Gansu, and Yunnan leading in redemption amount [75]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The stock of local government bonds this week was 52.3 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 3861.04 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.74%. The top three provinces in terms of trading activity were Guangdong, Shandong, and Sichuan. The top three active trading maturities were 30Y, 20Y, and 10Y [80]. - The yields of local government bonds generally declined this week [84]. 3.3.3 This Month's Local Government Bond Issuance Plan The report shows the local government bond issuance plan for the end of July, with multiple provinces having planned issuances [85]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 370 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 3508.44 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 2959.29 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 549.15 billion yuan, an increase of 96.95 billion yuan compared to last week [87]. - Specifically, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was - 308.31 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 857.46 billion yuan [88]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The issuance interest rates of various bonds changed. For example, the issuance interest rate of short - term financing bonds decreased by 3.55bp, while that of medium - term notes increased by 9.57bp [99]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The trading volume of credit bonds in the secondary market was 5722.35 billion yuan. Among them, the trading volume of medium - term notes was the largest, reaching 3252.69 billion yuan [101]. 3.4.4 Yield to Maturity - The yields of various bonds generally increased. For example, the yield of 1 - year short - term financing bonds increased by 9.61bp, and the yield of 3 - year medium - term notes increased by 10.40bp [104]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes generally widened, while those of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [109][116]. 3.4.6 Rating Spreads - The rating spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds generally widened, while those of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [120][125]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity - The report lists the top five most actively traded bonds in each bond type. The industrial industry had the largest weekly trading volume of credit bonds, reaching 3262.06 billion yuan [133]. 3.4.8 Changes in Subject Ratings There were no bonds with upgraded or downgraded ratings or outlooks this week [134].

Group 1 - Chinese government proposed the establishment of a World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, with the headquarters tentatively located in Shanghai, aiming to promote global governance and bridge the digital divide [4][5] - The China Capital Market Society was established in Shanghai, marking the creation of an official think tank for the capital market, with key figures from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) involved [5] - The CSRC simplified the inheritance process for small estates of deceased investors, allowing direct handling of inheritances under 50,000 yuan without notarization [6] Group 2 - The State Council's Food Safety Office emphasized increased regulatory efforts for infant food and disaster relief food, ensuring public safety during peak consumption periods [7] - Shanghai plans to establish a leading high-level autonomous driving zone by 2027, aiming to create a competitive smart connected vehicle industry cluster [7] - China Mobile's chairman announced the enhancement of the "AI+" initiative to drive innovation and integration across industries [15] Group 3 - Alibaba is set to launch its first self-developed AI glasses, which will support various applications including navigation and payment [14] - Tesla showcased its advancements in smart driving technology at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference, with plans to further implement its driver-assist system in China and Europe [17] - The Chinese Academy of Sciences released the "Panshi Scientific Foundation Model," which aims to support scientific innovation through advanced data understanding [18] Group 4 - Huaxi Biological issued a statement denying false information circulating online and reported the matter to law enforcement, emphasizing the importance of maintaining corporate integrity [20][21] - Meta appointed former OpenAI executive Shengjia Zhao as the chief scientist of its new "Superintelligence" AI team, indicating a strategic move to enhance its AI capabilities [22]

Core Viewpoint - The China Three Gorges Group and China Yarlung Tsangpo Group have signed a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance collaboration in serving national major strategies [1][7]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Yu Bing has been appointed as the Chairman and Party Secretary of China Yarlung Tsangpo Group [3]. - Wang Wubin has been appointed as the General Manager and Deputy Party Secretary of China Yarlung Tsangpo Group [3]. - Zhao Feng has been appointed as the Deputy General Manager and Party Member of China Yarlung Tsangpo Group [3]. Group 2: Background of Key Personnel - Yu Bing, born in October 1967, previously served as a member and deputy director of the Party Leadership Group of the National Energy Administration, and was recently appointed as a director and general manager of China Energy Investment Corporation [4]. - Wang Wubin, born in October 1970, has a long history in the water conservancy system and previously held positions as Deputy General Manager and Party Member of China Three Gorges Group [4]. Group 3: Establishment of China Yarlung Tsangpo Group - The establishment of China Yarlung Tsangpo Group has been approved by the State Council, with the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission representing the State Council in fulfilling investor responsibilities [7]. - China Yarlung Tsangpo Group is designated as the owner of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River [7].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of China Yajiang Group is a significant decision made by the central government to enhance energy security and support major national strategies, particularly in the context of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project [9]. Group 1: Leadership and Structure - Yu Bing has been appointed as the Chairman and Party Secretary of China Yajiang Group, while Wang Wubin serves as the General Manager and Deputy Party Secretary [2][4]. - Wang Wubin, a senior engineer and recipient of the National Science and Technology Progress Award, has extensive experience in the water conservancy sector [7]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The formation of China Yajiang Group is aligned with the overall national security and energy strategies, ensuring the smooth construction and operation of the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project [9]. - The group is now the 22nd central enterprise in China, positioned between China Three Gorges Group and China Energy Investment Group [9]. Group 3: Project Overview - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, involves the construction of five cascade power stations [9]. - The project is expected to have a planned installed capacity of about 60 million kilowatts and an annual power generation of 300 billion kilowatt-hours [10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant rotation among sectors, with high dividend stocks, technology stocks, and new concepts like the Yajiang concept and "anti-involution" stocks gaining momentum, leading to increased market activity and investor sentiment [6][7][24]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the 3600-point mark for the first time since January 2022, closing at this level on July 24, 2023, with a trading volume of 1.84 trillion yuan, marking a significant recovery from the previous year's level of around 2900 points [4][10]. - Over the past three months, the index has risen from 3040 points to 3600 points, reflecting a cumulative increase of over 18% [5]. Sector Rotation - The market has seen a rapid shift in hot sectors, with banks initially leading the charge, followed by brokers and technology stocks, and new concepts like "anti-involution" and "Yajiang hydropower" making significant gains [23][24]. - The Yajiang hydropower project, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to boost GDP by approximately 2.04 trillion yuan over ten years, further igniting market enthusiasm [24]. Institutional Investment - Institutional investors have noted a significant influx of long-term capital into the market, with central financial institutions increasing their holdings in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and insurance companies actively participating in equity investments [10][16]. - The central government has emphasized the importance of stabilizing the market and promoting long-term capital inflows, which has led to a more favorable investment environment [10]. Investor Sentiment - There is a mix of optimism and skepticism among investors, with some feeling the market is entering a bull phase while others remain cautious, waiting for clearer signals [7][30]. - The recent market activity has attracted more retail investors, as evidenced by the significant increase in trading volumes and the overall positive sentiment surrounding the market's recovery [31][32]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions may lead to a "slow bull" market, characterized by steady growth rather than rapid fluctuations, driven by structural changes in the market and ongoing policy support [36]. - The market's ability to maintain momentum will depend on continued capital inflows and the successful navigation of potential economic pressures [32][35].