Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market index [1][57]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of new product categories and channels, highlighting potential alpha opportunities within the food and beverage sector [4]. - The secondary market performance shows a decline of 0.62% in the food and beverage sector, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.92 percentage points, ranking 20th among 31 sectors [7][12]. - The report identifies key trends in various sub-sectors, including the stabilization of liquor prices, improving beer demand, and high growth potential in the snack segment [7][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Secondary Market Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 0.62%, with the liquor sub-sector showing a relative increase of 1.20% [12]. - Top-performing stocks included Huang Shang Huang, Jiu Gui Jiu, and ST Tong Pu, with gains ranging from 5.12% to 11.71% [12][17]. 2. Major Consumer Goods and Raw Material Prices - Liquor prices as of July 7, 2025, show a mixed trend, with the 2024 Flying Moutai price at 1,890 RMB for scattered bottles, down 160 RMB from the previous month [21]. - Beer production in May 2025 reached 3.584 million kiloliters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.30% [27]. - Dairy prices indicate a stable trend, with fresh milk priced at 3.04 RMB per kilogram, while pork prices are at 20.58 RMB per kilogram, showing a slight increase [29]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that there are currently 65,900 beer-related enterprises in China, predominantly located in East and Northeast regions [54]. - Recent promotional activities, such as the Taobao flash sale, have significantly boosted sales in the liquor and dairy sectors [54]. 4. Core Company Dynamics - Key company updates include Kuozi Jiao's announcement of a cash dividend of 1.30 RMB per share, totaling 778 million RMB [56].

经鉴证的律师事务所主任签字并加盖公章的法律意见书 ? 报备文件 经与会董事和记录人签字确认并加盖董事会印章的股东大会决议 证券代码：603777 证券简称：来伊份 公告编号：2025-061 上海来伊份股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ? 本次会议是否有否决议案：无 一、 会议召开和出席情况 (一)股东大会召开的时间：2025 年 7 月 7 日 (二)股东大会召开的地点：上海市松江区九新公路 855 号来伊份零食博物馆 (三)出席会议的普通股股东和恢复表决权的优先股股东及其持有股份情况： 份总数的比例（%） 61.7554 (四)表决方式是否符合《公司法》及《公司章程》的规定，大会主持情况等。 本次股东大会采取现场记名投票表决与网络投票表决相结合的方式召开。会 议由公司董事会提议召开，本次股东大会由董事长施永雷先生主持。本次股东大 会的召集、召开和表决方式符合《公司法》、 《公司章程》等法律、法规及规范性 文件的规定。 (五)公司董事、监事和董事会秘书的出席情况 二、 议案审议情况 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the liquor sector, particularly Moutai, is stabilizing in price, and attention should be paid to the second-quarter performance of the sector [3][12]. - The food and beverage sector saw a slight increase of 0.74% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.67 percentage points [2][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand and market health, with companies focusing on destocking and promoting sales in the short term while nurturing consumer engagement and internationalization in the long term [14][21]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Moutai's stock buyback reached 3.3821 million shares, accounting for 0.27% of total shares, with a total expenditure of 5.202 billion yuan [3][12]. - The liquor index increased by 1.2%, indicating a potential valuation recovery driven by incremental policies [14]. - Recommended stocks include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, which have demonstrated resilience through multiple cycles [14][21]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that the recent warm weather is favorable for beer consumption, with expectations for slight sales growth among major beer brands [15]. - The snack sector is experiencing a trend of differentiation, with recommendations for companies that are innovating in products and channels [16][17]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the seasoning industry, such as Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring, as they show resilience [18]. Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector is stable, with companies actively developing new products despite the off-season [19]. - Anji Food's recent IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange raised 2.302 billion HKD, which will be used to enhance sales networks and optimize supply chains [19]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, with supply pressures easing and potential policy catalysts on the horizon [20]. - The report recommends focusing on leading dairy companies that are well-positioned for upward elasticity in 2025 [20]. Beverages - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [21]. - The report recommends East Peak Beverage, which is accelerating its national and platform expansion [21].

Group 1: Beer Industry - The beer sector is experiencing marginal demand improvement, with cost reductions enhancing profit elasticity. In 2024, terminal consumption remains weak, but leading beer companies are working on channel inventory destocking, with inventory levels at historical lows. The sector's valuation has dropped to a five-year low, but there is a high certainty of sales data recovery in 2025 due to low base effects and consumption policy stimuli, which may catalyze valuation increases. Additionally, costs are in a downward cycle, and product structure optimization is ongoing, indicating potential profit elasticity. Companies to watch include Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer, which have strong growth momentum and stable profit improvement [2][41]. - The beer production volume has stabilized over the past four years, with expectations for steady production in the next five years. The main consumer demographic for beer is aged 18-49, and after peaking in 2013, beer production has gradually declined. The production volume is expected to remain stable, with a slight decrease projected for 2024 [9][11]. - The beer industry has a high concentration, with the top five companies holding over 90% market share. Price increases remain a key growth driver for leading companies, particularly in the 6-10 yuan price range, as low-end products upgrade and high-end demand recedes [13][17]. Group 2: Snack Industry - The snack industry is entering a stable growth phase, with accelerated penetration into lower-tier markets and continued channel benefits. The retail market for leisure food and beverages is projected to reach 3.7 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%. The lower-tier market is expected to grow faster than higher-tier markets, with a projected market size of 1.18 trillion yuan by 2025 [44][45]. - Health-conscious and quality-oriented demands are increasingly shaping the snack market. Products like konjac and quail eggs are gaining popularity due to their health benefits and taste experiences. The konjac market is expected to continue its rapid growth, with significant sales increases noted in recent quarters [68][79]. - The rise of membership supermarkets is creating new opportunities for snack growth. Companies are actively expanding their presence in membership channels like Sam's Club and Hema, which are becoming key points for product launches and rapid sales growth [61][79]. Group 3: Dairy Industry - The dairy industry is experiencing a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with expectations for a turning point in the raw milk cycle. The price of fresh milk has been declining, leading to increased losses in dairy farming, but a reduction in raw milk inventory is anticipated as summer demand for cold dairy products rises. This could enhance the profitability of dairy companies once prices stabilize [2][82]. - The dairy sector has faced three rounds of price declines since 2008, with the current cycle extending due to weak demand and excess supply. The total milk production in China is projected to decrease for the first time since 2018, indicating a significant adjustment phase for the industry [88].

Group 1: Industry Overview - Moutai's batch price stabilizes and rebounds, indicating potential improvement in sentiment within the liquor sector [1][11] - Short-term demand fluctuations are expected to lead to a quarter-on-quarter slowdown in the liquor sector for Q2 2025, but leading liquor companies are working to maintain price stability [1][11] - The snack sector shows stability in traditional channels and rapid growth in membership supermarket channels, with new products expected to launch in the second half of 2025 [1][11] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Luzhou Laojiao is actively embracing new consumption trends, improving market inventory, and planning to expand its terminal count to 4 million over the next five years [2] - Yanghe's new leadership is expected to drive organizational adjustments and enhance operational dynamics, with new products launched to target younger consumers [3] - Jiu Gui Jiu is focusing on brand education and product strategies, including low-end and low-alcohol products, while optimizing its channel structure [4] - New Dairy is experiencing double-digit growth in low-temperature milk, with cost advantages expected to enhance profit release capabilities [5] - Jin Zai Foods is in a cautious operational phase, with stable performance in traditional and snack channels, while exploring new product launches [6] - Youyi Foods is seeing strong sales performance and successful new product launches, particularly in membership channels [7] - Zhongchong's self-owned brands are growing, with stable domestic market performance and increased overseas factory output [8] - Petty's domestic market is expanding into staple food areas, with a focus on low-sensitivity, high-nutrition products [9] - Anjiu Foods has successfully listed its H-shares, raising approximately 2.302 billion HKD from the global offering [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a bottoming phase, with a focus on the growth opportunities in the konjac segment. The food and beverage index increased by 0.6% from June 30 to July 4, ranking 19th among 28 sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.9 percentage points. The meat products, liquor, and baked goods sub-industries showed relatively strong performance with increases of 1.2%, 1.2%, and 0.9% respectively [3][12][14] - The recent decline in liquor prices is attributed to the impact of e-commerce subsidies and restrictions on consumption due to the "ban on alcohol," which has compressed industry demand. However, liquor manufacturers are controlling market supply, leading to a temporary stabilization of liquor prices. Although there has been a slight accumulation of channel inventory, the overall inventory remains manageable due to a slowdown in shipments from manufacturers. The ongoing effects of the "ban on alcohol" are expected to continue, with increased pressure on liquor industry performance anticipated in the second quarter. The ban may accelerate industry consolidation and bottoming trends [3][12][14] - In the long term, the liquor industry is undergoing a transformation in consumer demand, with companies adapting by launching lower-alcohol products to cater to younger consumers and promoting family gatherings and casual drinking scenarios. Leading liquor companies maintain strong brand and channel competitiveness, which is expected to facilitate their transition during this industry transformation. Current low valuations and high dividend rates of leading liquor companies suggest they possess long-term investment value [3][12][14] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index increased by 0.6%, ranking 19th out of 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.9 percentage points. The leading sub-industries included meat products (+1.2%), liquor (+1.2%), and baked goods (+0.9%) [12][14] Upstream Data - As of July 1, the GDT auction price for whole milk powder was $3,859 per ton, down 5.5% month-on-month but up 19.9% year-on-year. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.0 yuan per kilogram, unchanged month-on-month but down 7.0% year-on-year. The domestic milk price is expected to continue its downward trend in the short to medium term [19][24] - On July 5, the price of pork was 20.4 yuan per kilogram, down 16.2% year-on-year, while the price of live pigs was 15.2 yuan per kilogram, down 16.5% year-on-year. The number of breeding sows was 40.42 million, up 1.2% year-on-year [27][28] Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Wancheng Group, and Bairun Co. Guizhou Moutai is expected to deepen its reform process and emphasize sustainable development despite short-term demand pressures. Shanxi Fenjiu has high mid-term growth certainty, while Ximai Food is expected to improve profitability due to favorable raw material costs. Wancheng Group continues to expand its store count and target young consumers, and Bairun Co. is seeing improvements in its pre-mixed liquor segment [5][48]

Core Viewpoint - Qiyunshan Food is preparing for an IPO, heavily reliant on its main product, South Jujube Cake, which contributed 2.94 billion RMB in revenue for 2024, accounting for 86.7% of total revenue [1][3]. Revenue and Product Performance - The South Jujube Cake has dominated the company's revenue, contributing 88.7%, 84.7%, and 86.7% of total revenue from 2022 to 2024 respectively [1][3]. - Other products, including South Jujube Granules, South Jujube Jelly, South Jujube Soft Candy, and South Jujube Frozen, are also based on South Jujube but have significantly lower revenue contributions [2]. - Revenue from South Jujube Granules increased from 10.44 million RMB in 2022 to 31.26 million RMB in 2024, but its share remains small at 9.2% [3]. Production Capacity and Strategy - The company strategically reduced production capacity for other products from 1,100 tons to 677 tons while increasing South Jujube Cake production capacity to 9,224 tons to meet rising market demand [4]. - The focus on a single product may enhance short-term efficiency but could limit long-term market adaptability due to a lack of product diversification [4][6]. Marketing and Sales Channels - Qiyunshan Food has a high marketing expenditure, with sales and marketing costs reaching 75.84 million RMB in 2024, accounting for 23.11% of revenue [10]. - The company relies heavily on offline sales channels, with 89.3% of revenue generated through 230 distributors, of which 199 are offline [7][9]. - Online sales have been declining, with online direct sales contributing only 10.4% of total revenue in 2024, down from 12.7% in 2022 [9][10]. Customer Concentration - In 2024, a single customer contributed 22.9% of total revenue, indicating a growing reliance on a few key clients [12][13]. - The share of revenue from the top five customers has increased from 26.4% to 38.7% over the past three years, raising concerns about customer concentration risk [13]. Industry Trends - The snack industry is witnessing a shift towards volume-based sales channels, which has become a new growth driver for companies [14]. - However, this model may pressure brand owners on cost management and supply chain efficiency due to lower profit margins associated with volume sales [15]. Supply Chain Risks - Qiyunshan Food faces supply chain risks as it relies on local farmers for raw materials without formal contracts, making it vulnerable to supply shortages and price fluctuations [16].

Core Viewpoint - Qi Yun Shan Food is heavily reliant on its single product, South Sour Jujube Cake, which poses risks for its IPO ambitions as it struggles with diversification and online transformation [1][2][4][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, South Sour Jujube Cake generated 294 million RMB, accounting for 86.7% of total revenue, while other products contributed only 13 million RMB, representing a mere 3.8% [1][2][3]. - Revenue growth for Qi Yun Shan Food was 37.25% in 2024, significantly higher than 13.82% in 2023, driven by an expanded distribution network [14]. Product and Market Strategy - The company has strategically reduced production capacity for other products, focusing resources on South Sour Jujube Cake and South Sour Jujube Granules, with the latter's production capacity dropping from 1,100 tons to 677 tons [4][5]. - Despite claims of pursuing product diversification, R&D investment has decreased from 4.7% in 2022 to 3.5% in 2024 [6]. Sales Channels - In 2024, offline sales accounted for 89.3% of total revenue, with 199 out of 230 distributors being offline [8][10]. - Online sales have been declining, with online direct sales only reaching 35.5 million RMB in 2024, down from 12.7% in 2022 and 14% in 2023 [10][11]. Customer Concentration - The top five customers contributed 38.7% of total revenue in 2024, with the largest customer alone accounting for 22.9% [15][16]. - The reliance on a few key customers raises concerns about revenue stability and potential risks associated with customer concentration [15][16]. Supply Chain Challenges - Qi Yun Shan Food faces supply chain risks due to its dependence on local farmers for raw materials, which are not secured by formal contracts, leading to potential shortages and price volatility [18].

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of "involution" competition in recent years is not merely due to the short-sightedness of companies and employees, but is deeply rooted in macroeconomic backgrounds influenced by economic cycles, institutional issues, and technological development patterns [1][27]. Group 1: Industry Responses to Involution - The automotive industry has been notably active, with a significant "60-day account period revolution" and calls from the National Federation of Industry and Commerce for manufacturers to shorten rebate periods and simplify policies [3][4]. - The pig farming sector is also responding, with major companies being urged to reduce production capacity and stabilize prices, controlling the weight of pigs for market [5]. - The photovoltaic industry is proactively reducing production, with leading glass manufacturers planning a collective 30% cut in output [6]. - The cement industry is undergoing self-examination, with the China Cement Association requiring members to align actual production with registered capacity [7]. Group 2: Historical Context of Capacity Reduction - Historical capacity reduction efforts have typically focused on high-pollution and high-energy-consuming traditional industries, employing methods such as limiting new capacity and eliminating outdated production [16][20]. - The current round of capacity reduction is characterized by a broader scope, including emerging industries like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, indicating a shift from traditional sectors [21][22]. Group 3: Economic and Policy Factors - The low demand in the domestic market and uncertainties in foreign demand are contributing to the "involution" competition, exacerbated by supply-demand mismatches in certain industries [28]. - Local governments' performance evaluation mechanisms lead to "race-to-the-bottom" competition, distorting industry entry costs and slowing down market adjustments [29]. - Technological advancements often result in structural overcapacity, particularly in emerging industries, as companies invest heavily to adapt to rapid changes [30]. Group 4: Future Directions and Recommendations - To address "involution" competition, authorities should enhance counter-cyclical adjustments to boost domestic demand and reform the income distribution structure to improve labor compensation [34][36]. - Encouraging differentiated competition among enterprises and establishing industry standards can help mitigate excessive competition [38]. - A tailored approach to supply-side guidance based on industry-specific technological development patterns is necessary to support innovation [39]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investors should be aware of the typical patterns of capacity reduction, as stock prices in affected industries may initially drop but can rebound significantly post-adjustment [57]. - Emerging industries such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence, despite current bubbles, present substantial arbitrage opportunities [58].

Group 1 - The company plans to invest up to 200 million RMB to enhance its supply chain, focusing on the construction of snack industrial parks and supply chain bases in various regions [2][3] - The strategic focus of the company is on "high-end cost performance," aiming to improve the self-production ratio of snack categories while maintaining reasonable pricing for consumers [2][3] - The company's revenue has fluctuated, increasing from 900 million RMB in 2014 to 10.2 billion RMB in 2019, then declining to over 7 billion RMB in 2022 and 2023, with a projected revenue of 10.6 billion RMB in 2024 [2] Group 2 - The company has been working to expand its offline channel presence, having previously relied heavily on e-commerce platforms [3] - A planned acquisition of the snack brand "Ai Ling Shi" for 200 million RMB was terminated due to disagreements on core terms, highlighting the company's challenges in offline expansion [3] - The company's offline store revenue was 404 million RMB in 2024, accounting for only 3.8% of total revenue, indicating a weak position in offline retail [3]