瑞财经 吴文婷量贩零食领域的"分手大戏"持续发酵。 近日，爱零食创始人唐光亮在社交媒体连续发布多个视频，讲述与三只松鼠的合作细节与核心分歧，并 宣布已正式起诉三只松鼠。 图片来源：爱零食创始人唐光亮社交账号 唐光亮称，其于去年9月29日与三只松鼠创始人章燎原线下见面，双方确定了三只松鼠收购爱零食的合 作意向，为此自己还放弃了与来伊份洽谈的机会。此后，虽然双方并未敲定收购计划的细节及价格，但 爱零食与三只松鼠已经开始合作，三只松鼠已经可以对爱零食的经营活动施加影响。 唐光亮列举出多项三只松鼠对爱零食施加影响的例子，包括：爱零食在章燎原的指示下，在长沙、天津 开展大型发布会，在三只松鼠的要求下对公司组织架构进行调整等。 至于调低估值，唐光亮称是在今年4月份，三只松鼠找到他时提出的。三只松鼠方面给出的理由是，爱 零食估值太高不便于三只松鼠整合其他品牌。但唐光亮认为估值太低不便于爱零食下一次融资。双方在 此谈判一度陷入僵局，直至6月份谈判破裂。 据了解，6月16日，三只松鼠发布关于投资事项的进展公告，终止收购湖南爱零食科技有限公司（以下 简称"爱零食"）的控制权或相关业务及资产。 而早在2024年10月28日，三只松 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Laiyifen, a leading snack company in China, particularly regarding its employee stock ownership plans and financial performance, while also highlighting the competitive landscape in the snack industry. Group 1: Employee Stock Ownership Plans - Laiyifen completed a share buyback plan, repurchasing 2.9054 million shares for a total of 30.2236 million yuan, intended for an employee stock ownership plan [1] - The company faced setbacks with its employee stock ownership plans, having previously failed to meet performance targets in 2022 and terminating its second plan in 2024 due to poor financial results [2][3] - The second plan's performance criteria were adjusted to a 3% revenue increase or a 20% net profit increase, but the company reported a 15.25% decline in revenue and a net loss of 75.27 million yuan for the year [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Laiyifen's revenue was 3.37 billion yuan, down 15.25% year-on-year, and it reported a net loss of 7.527 million yuan, marking a second consecutive year of declining revenue and profit [2] - The company's first quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 1.048 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.23%, and a net profit of 12.43 million yuan, down nearly 80% year-on-year [2] - Laiyifen's gross margin for 2024 was reported at 38.82%, the highest in the industry, exceeding the average by nearly 8 percentage points [6][7] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The snack industry is witnessing a rise in volume snack brands, with companies like Mingming Hen Mang achieving significant growth, reporting 39.344 billion yuan in revenue and a net profit of 0.913 billion yuan in 2024 [5] - Laiyifen's management indicated that they would maintain strategic focus and not enter the volume snack market, despite the competitive pressure [6] - Other companies in the industry, such as Three Squirrels and Salted Fish, have successfully implemented employee stock ownership plans, while others like Good Idea and Qiaqia Foods have faced challenges [3][5] Group 4: Quality Control and Safety Issues - Laiyifen faced a food safety crisis when a consumer reported finding a foreign object in a product, prompting the company to initiate an internal investigation [10] - The company utilizes an outsourcing model for production, which poses challenges for quality control, necessitating a robust quality management system [11] - Laiyifen has implemented a comprehensive quality control system, including supplier selection and regular inspections, to mitigate risks associated with its outsourcing strategy [11]

Group 1: Market Trends - The "micro-drunk economy" is driving innovation in the beverage market, with new Chinese-style tea beer emerging as a highlight in the craft beer segment, integrating Chinese tea elements to attract consumers. The domestic craft beer market grew from 3.3 billion in 2011 to 42.8 billion in 2021, and is expected to exceed 200 billion by 2030 [2] - The Chinese herbal water market is becoming crowded, with 23 brands competing for a market worth 450 million, growing from 10 million in 2018. The market is projected to exceed 10 billion by 2028, with products often featuring traditional Chinese medicinal ingredients [4][5] - The ready-to-eat meal industry in China is characterized by a diverse competitive landscape, with leading companies like Anjuke and Shuanghui Development generating over 10 billion in annual revenue, although overall revenue growth is expected to slow down in 2024 [8] Group 2: Consumer Preferences - The milk chocolate market in China is analyzed for trends and sales forecasts from 2019 to 2031, highlighting the country's significant position in the global market and the continuous rise in production capacity [3] - The herbal tea beverage market is rapidly developing, with expectations to exceed 100 billion by 2028. Products are priced between 3.9 to 9.9 yuan, primarily featuring traditional Chinese medicinal ingredients [11] - The corn tea market is emerging as a new trend in the sugar-free tea segment, with significant sales growth in Japan and Korea, indicating potential for expansion in China [12] Group 3: Company Strategies - Dongpeng Beverage, a leader in the energy drink sector, achieved revenue of 15.84 billion in 2024, with a net profit of 3.33 billion, focusing on blue-collar consumers and expanding into Southeast Asian markets [13] - Bai Fei Dairy's IPO application has been accepted, with rapid revenue growth from 780 million in 2022 to 1.423 billion in 2024, indicating strong market potential for buffalo milk products [14] - The partnership between Laoxiangji and DingTalk aims to create smart restaurants using AI technology, enhancing operational efficiency and digital transformation in the restaurant industry [22]

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Hunan Ailing Snack Technology Co., Ltd. by Three Squirrels has been terminated due to fundamental disagreements on key terms, including equity valuation and operational control, leading to public disputes between the parties involved [1][4][5]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition was initially announced in October 2024, with Three Squirrels planning to invest up to 200 million RMB to acquire control or related assets of Ailing Snack [1][3]. - The acquisition was seen as a strategic move for Three Squirrels to enter the bulk snack market, generating significant market interest [1][2]. - Despite initial optimism, the acquisition process faced stagnation, leading to the termination announcement in June 2025 [3]. Group 2: Disputes and Legal Actions - Ailing Snack's founder, Tang Guangliang, publicly criticized Three Squirrels for discrepancies in equity valuation and operational control, claiming that negotiations were undermined by Three Squirrels' discussions with competitors [4][5]. - Tang has indicated that legal action has been initiated against Three Squirrels, although specific details of the lawsuit have not been disclosed [6][7]. - Three Squirrels has stated that they will leave legal matters to the courts and expressed goodwill towards Ailing Snack's future development [7]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Three Squirrels reported a strong financial performance in 2024, with revenues of 10.622 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 49.3%, and a net profit of 408 million RMB, up 85.5% [3]. - However, in the first quarter of 2025, the company experienced a slowdown, with a revenue increase of only 2.13% and a net profit decline of 22.46% [3]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The termination of the acquisition directly impacts Ailing Snack's plans for rapid expansion and brand enhancement, which relied on Three Squirrels' resources and expertise [5]. - Ailing Snack had ambitious plans to expand its store count from over 1,800 to 5,000 by 2025 and over 10,000 by 2026, which may now be jeopardized [2][5].

Core Insights - Mondelez International is accelerating its strategic adjustments in the Chinese market, implementing organizational changes effective July 1, 2025, to enhance its omnichannel capabilities [1][2] - The restructuring involves integrating the e-commerce team into the sales department, indicating a shift from "channel separation" to "integrated operations" to address the fragmented consumer market [1][2] E-commerce Strategy - The adjustment aims to reduce internal complexity and focus on strategic priorities, with the e-commerce team now reporting directly to the sales vice president [1][2] - The e-commerce business has seen rapid growth, particularly in the O2O (online-to-offline) sector, with brands like Oreo and Trident performing well on platforms such as Meituan and JD Daojia [2] Strategic Development Optimization - In addition to e-commerce adjustments, Mondelez China is optimizing its strategic development functions, merging them under the management of the frozen cake business leader, indicating a tighter integration of strategic planning and business execution [2][3] - This restructuring is viewed as a significant reference model for the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry, promoting a comprehensive omnichannel strategy [3] Operational Efficiency - By returning the e-commerce business to the sales system, the company aims to achieve efficient resource allocation between online and offline channels, fostering synergies in emerging areas like O2O retail [3] - The new operational model aligns with consumer habits of shopping anytime and anywhere, potentially driving digital transformation among traditional distributors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the consumer landscape in China, highlighting the shift from traditional brands to domestic brands driven by the new generation of consumers, particularly the Z generation, who prioritize practicality and value over brand prestige [3][4]. Group 1: Key Trends in New Consumption - The new consumption trend is characterized by a collective disillusionment with foreign brands, as consumers increasingly favor domestic products that offer better value for money [6][7]. - The rise of domestic brands is not driven by nationalism but by a rationalist approach to consumption, leading to a K-shaped differentiation among domestic brands, where innovative brands thrive while traditional ones decline [12][13]. - The automotive industry is witnessing a significant shift towards domestic electric vehicles, with domestic brands capturing over 60% of the market share by 2024, driven by advancements in technology and consumer preferences [9][10]. Group 2: Changes in Consumer Behavior - New consumers are increasingly focused on self-satisfaction, leading to a redefinition of social interactions and consumption patterns, where personal happiness takes precedence over societal expectations [28][32]. - The tourism industry is experiencing a boom, with record-high participation rates, reflecting the desire for personal experiences despite economic constraints [30][32]. - The rise of the "single economy" and "宅经济" (home economy) is reshaping consumer demands, with a preference for personalized, convenient products and services [34][35]. Group 3: Channel Dynamics - Traditional retail channels are rapidly declining as new consumption models emerge, exemplified by the success of snack wholesale stores that offer lower prices and a wider variety of products [20][23]. - The shift towards instant retail is gaining momentum, with projections indicating that the market will exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, highlighting a significant change in consumer purchasing behavior [36][37]. - The article emphasizes the need for brands to adapt to the changing landscape, as traditional strategies become less effective in the face of evolving consumer preferences [27].

Group 1: Labubu 3.0 and Pop Mart - Labubu 3.0 series has launched global pre-sales, with expected sales exceeding 500 million yuan based on a supply of 4-5 million units at a price of 99 yuan each [2] - The secondary market has seen a significant drop in prices for Labubu products, with resale values for blind box sets plummeting from 1500-2800 yuan to 650-800 yuan [2] - Pop Mart's stock price has dropped 12.11% to 239.60 HKD per share, marking a new low since June 3 [2][3] Group 2: Pop Mart's Strategic Response - Analysts have expressed concerns about Pop Mart's valuation, suggesting it lacks a competitive moat due to the short lifespan of its IP and weak pricing power compared to global operators like Disney [3] - In response to market challenges, Pop Mart is optimizing its sales mechanism to allow more genuine fans to purchase Labubu products [3] - The company has announced the establishment of a film studio to expand its IP beyond toys, with an animated series titled "LABUBU and Friends" in the pipeline [3] Group 3: Lao Pu Gold's Global Expansion - Lao Pu Gold is opening its first overseas store in Singapore, aiming to position itself as a luxury brand alongside established names like Louis Vuitton and Hermes [4] - The brand's strategy includes focusing on the Chinese cultural sphere in Southeast Asia, with plans to open four stores in the region by 2026 [5] - Lao Pu Gold plans to introduce localized products that incorporate local cultural elements, such as Christian-themed items in the Singapore store [5] Group 4: Walmart's Dominance in Retail - Walmart China has retained its position as the top supermarket chain with a sales figure of 158.845 billion yuan, equivalent to about two times the size of Hema [7] - Despite a reduction in the number of stores by 8.5% to 334, Walmart's sales have continued to grow, driven by the strong performance of Sam's Club [7] - In Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year, Walmart China's net sales reached 6.7 billion USD (approximately 48.3 billion yuan), reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.5% [7] Group 5: NITORI's Market Challenges - NITORI has closed 21 stores in China, representing a 20% closure rate, as it faces challenges in the macroeconomic environment [10] - The brand has attempted to diversify its product offerings by introducing higher-frequency items like clothing and pet food, but competition in these categories is intense [11] - NITORI's rapid expansion plans have been curtailed due to the sluggish real estate market and overall consumer sentiment [10][11] Group 6: Three Squirrels' Acquisition Setback - Three Squirrels has terminated its acquisition of Love Snacks due to disagreements on core terms of the deal [13][15] - The company has been heavily reliant on online sales, with 69.73% of its revenue coming from online channels, highlighting its need to strengthen its offline presence [13] - The competitive landscape in the snack industry has intensified, prompting Three Squirrels to reassess its offline strategy amid slowing growth [14] Group 7: Marketing Innovations - Fujifilm's skincare brand ASTALIFT has launched a new sunscreen product that combines multiple functions, targeting young consumers [17] - Balenciaga has opened a flagship store in Beijing, introducing a limited-edition "Peking Duck" bag that sold out quickly, showcasing the brand's unique marketing strategy [19] - IKEA has released a new series of decorative lights designed in collaboration with Dutch designer Sabine Marcelis, emphasizing the role of light in home living [21] Group 8: Corporate Developments - Anta has appointed Yao Jian as the president of the Wolf Claw brand to oversee global operations following its acquisition [25] - The parent company of the Chinese makeup brand Orange has acquired the skincare brand Baizhi Cui, marking its entry into the skincare market [25] - Li Ning has hired Victor Herrero, a former executive from Zara, as the new CEO of Clarks, with a potential total compensation of up to 42 million yuan [26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying bottom opportunities in the liquor sector, with May retail sales data showing steady improvement [3][11] - The food and beverage index experienced a slight decline of 0.1% from June 16 to June 20, ranking 4th among primary sub-industries and outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.3 percentage points [3][13] - The report highlights that the recent ban on alcohol consumption has significantly impacted liquor demand and market sentiment, leading to a continuous decline in stock prices. However, recent media clarifications have provided a slight rebound in the liquor sector [3][11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The liquor sector is focusing on bottom opportunities, with May retail sales data showing a steady upward trend [3][11] - The food and beverage index outperformed the market, with beer and liquor showing relative strength [3][11] 2. Market Performance - The food and beverage index had a decline of 0.1%, ranking 4th among 28 industries, with beer (+1.9%) and liquor (+1.1%) leading the performance [3][13] 3. Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, which may alleviate cost pressures for beverage companies [16][33] 4. Liquor Industry News - The report notes that the liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations for gradual recovery as valuations become more attractive [4][12] 5. Recommended Companies - Recommended companies include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Wancheng Group, and Bairun Co. [5][12]

Core Insights - The jelly industry in China has shown significant growth, with market size increasing from 17.8 billion yuan in 2020 to 31 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.9% [1] - By 2024, China is projected to become the largest producer and consumer of jelly globally, with the market expected to exceed 57 billion yuan by 2029 due to consumption upgrades and health-oriented demands [2] - The jelly market is characterized by a tiered competitive landscape, with well-known brands dominating the first tier and emerging brands challenging them in specific regions or segments [3] Market Segmentation - Cup jelly remains the market leader, holding a 68.7% market share in 2024, while squeeze jelly is experiencing rapid growth, with its market size increasing from 1.1 billion yuan in 2020 to 4.7 billion yuan in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 43.8% [2] - The traditional consumer base primarily consists of teenagers, but recent innovations have expanded the age demographic of jelly consumers [2] Product Innovation - Recent years have seen a surge in product innovation within the jelly industry, with new categories like slush jelly and oversized jelly gaining popularity, catering to diverse consumer needs [4] - Health and functionality have become key innovation directions, with products incorporating proteins, dietary fibers, vitamins, and probiotics to meet various health demands [5][6] - The emergence of hangover jelly, which utilizes specific ingredients to reduce alcohol absorption, represents a novel product category appealing to younger consumers [5][6] Future Development Prospects - The jelly industry is expected to further break traditional snack boundaries, incorporating more functional ingredients to meet health-conscious consumer demands [7] - Brands are encouraged to leverage big data and AI for personalized product design, focusing on individual consumer preferences [7] - Cross-industry collaborations are anticipated to enhance product diversity and consumer experiences, such as partnerships with pharmaceutical and fitness organizations [7][8]

Group 1: Market Performance - The liquor stocks have seen significant increases, with Huangtai Liquor reaching the daily limit, Jinzhongzi Liquor and Yingjia Gongjiu rising over 5%, and the liquor ETF increasing by over 2.3% [1] - The liquor ETF has attracted a net inflow of 20.83 billion yuan, despite the overall decline of over 5% in liquor and food ETFs this month [2][3] Group 2: Industry Outlook - Current demand for liquor is at a historical low, with limited downside risk; supportive policies are expected to aid in the gradual recovery of liquor demand [5] - The liquor industry is anticipated to show a rebound in demand, particularly in the high-end segment, supported by low base effects in Q3 and Q4 [5] - The food and beverage sector is expected to see structural growth, with opportunities in high-end liquor, mid-range liquor, and real estate liquor products [5][6] Group 3: Consumer Trends - New consumption trends are emerging, with a focus on health and emotional value, leading to the rise of new consumer categories [5] - The snack sector is experiencing high growth, driven by strong categories and new channels, with products like konjac gaining popularity [6][7] - The restaurant supply chain is expected to benefit from policy stimuli, with significant growth potential in the industry [7]