客户端 来源：期货日报 春节长假期间，外盘农产品期货市场暗藏波澜，表现偏强。截至2月23日下午，豆油、小麦、白糖等品 种涨幅在3%左右。马年农产品市场是否会出现较好的投资机会呢？市场人士认为，春节长假过后，粮 棉油糖、干鲜林果品，以及肉蛋类商品价格走势将围绕供应、需求、库存这三个重要变量展开，农产品 市场整体热度攀升。 蓄势待发 三大核心变量定乾坤 春耕在即，万物萌动，农产品期市也站在了新的十字路口。在经历了长假前后的波动后，市场究竟在交 易什么？未来真正的机会又在哪里？答案指向一个关键词——核心变量。 "对农产品期货市场而言，核心变量集中在供应、需求、库存三个方面，交易逻辑更是在充分分析和评 判这三个重要变量运行态势的基础上产生的。"河南省郑州市农产品期货交易者张继学告诉期货日报记 者，春节长假过后，粮棉油糖、干鲜林果，以及肉蛋类商品价格的发展趋势均将围绕这三个重要变量展 开，农产品市场行情将呈现"多点开花"的场景。 棉花、白糖方面，重要变量是政策，情绪化行情特征明显。"经过去年11月下旬至今年1月上旬的快速拉 升后，棉花期货主力合约价格在14500~15000元/吨区间震荡，市场主要围绕新季棉花种植面积及 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间2月20日，洲际交易所（ICE）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数上涨，原糖期货涨 1.17%报13.86美分/磅，棉花期货涨2.20%报65.55美分/磅，可可期货涨4.12%报3184.00美元/吨，咖啡期 货跌0.02%报285.35美分/磅。 ...

最高法院裁定美国总统特朗普的全球关税非法，农产品期货对此的反应在短暂的交投激增后已趋于平 静，目前期货价格涨跌互现。Allendale的Rich Nelson称："鉴于政府此前曾评论称还有其他征收关税的 途径，市场在做出即时反应后，担忧情绪已有所缓解。"芝加哥期货交易所玉米期货上涨0.3%，大豆期 货下跌0.4%，小麦期货上涨1.3%。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间2月19日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数上涨，大 豆期货涨0.65%报1156.50美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌0.18%报426.25美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货涨3.03%报 569.25美分/蒲式耳。 ...

每经AI快讯，当地时间2月19日，洲际交易所（ICE）农产品期货主力合约收盘表现分化，原糖期货跌 0.29%报13.72美分/磅，棉花期货涨0.58%报64.13美分/磅，可可期货跌7.09%报3079.00美元/吨，咖啡期 货涨0.25%报285.85美分/磅。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

周四（2月19日）纽约尾盘，彭博谷物分类指数涨0.97%，报30.2913点，全天处于上涨状态，北京时间 22:40回落至30.0315点刷新日低。CBOT小麦期货涨3.03%，报5.6925美元/蒲式耳，亚太早盘以来持续走 高。CBOT大豆期货涨0.65%，报11.5650美元/蒲式耳，豆粕期货涨0.10%，豆油期货涨1.90%。CBOT玉 米期货跌0.06%。CBOT瘦肉猪期货涨1.03%，活牛期货涨0.41%，饲牛期货跌0.02%。ICE原糖期货跌 0.64%，ICE白糖期货跌0.91%。ICE阿拉比卡咖啡期货涨0.14%，咖啡"C"期货涨0.25%。罗布斯塔咖啡 期货跌1.47%。纽约可可期货跌7.09%，报3079美元/吨。伦敦可可期货跌7.28%。芝加哥WCE双低油菜 籽期货涨0.41%。ICE棉花期货涨0.58%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures closed mostly lower on February 17, with soybean futures slightly increasing while corn and wheat futures declined significantly [1][2] Group 2 - Soybean futures rose by 0.15%, closing at 1134.75 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures fell by 1.22%, closing at 426.50 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures decreased by 1.78%, closing at 539.00 cents per bushel [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures closed mostly lower on February 13, with soybean futures declining while corn futures saw a slight increase [1] Group 1: Futures Performance - Soybean futures fell by 0.22%, closing at 1134.75 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures increased by 0.12%, closing at 431.75 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures decreased by 0.63%, closing at 549.00 cents per bushel [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the bean pulp and corn sectors is neutral [3][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Brazilian soybean supply pressure will suppress the prices of US soybeans and domestic bean pulp. With sufficient domestic supply, the bean pulp price will maintain a volatile trend, and future focus should be on US soybean purchases and the Brazilian harvest [2] - The corn supply this season is not expected to be loose. The current corn price is expected to fluctuate, and future focus should be on spot purchases and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Pulp - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the bean pulp 2605 contract was 2790 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous day. Spot prices in different regions showed varying changes, with Tianjin at 3170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; Jiangsu at 3060 yuan/ton, unchanged; and Guangdong at 3060 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The Argentine Rosario Grain Exchange raised its 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 48 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons [1] - **Market Analysis**: Favorable weather in Brazil is expected to lead to a record soybean output of 181 million tons, which will put pressure on US soybeans and domestic bean pulp prices. Feed enterprises have basically completed their stockpiling, oil mill bean pulp inventories have increased again, and soybean inventories remain high, resulting in sufficient domestic supply and a volatile bean pulp price [2] Corn - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2320 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous day; the corn starch 2603 contract was 2572 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.04%. Spot prices in different regions also had different changes. On February 11, US exporters reported selling 230,560 tons of corn for the 2025/2026 market year [3] - **Market Analysis**: Last season's corn imports were low, and channel inventories were significantly depleted. Although there was a good harvest in Northeast China this season, affected by floods in North China and without the full implementation of substitute grain auctions, the corn supply this season is not expected to be loose. The current corn price is expected to fluctuate, and future focus should be on spot purchases and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes the sugar - crushing process in February and the bearish impact of increased production is mostly realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the downward space for sugar prices in the short - term may be limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [2][3][4] - For cotton, the February USDA monthly supply - demand report is neutral. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate and the new cotton target price policy that may be announced in March or April. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower edge of the oscillation range [6][8][10] - For protein meal, the expectation of China increasing soybean purchases from the US drives up the CBOT soybean price. For the domestic market, on one hand, the long - term supply pressure increases, and on the other hand, the import cost rises. It is expected that the protein meal price will continue to fluctuate in the short - term [12][13][14] - For oils and fats, driven by the bio - diesel policies of various countries, the consumption growth of oils and fats this year is greater than the production growth rate. The price of oils and fats is bullish in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back and then go long [16][18][19] - For eggs, the market is in the inventory - accumulation period around the Spring Festival. Under weak demand and high inventory, the spot price is likely to fall rather than rise, which drives the futures price down. The near - term contracts may still need to squeeze out the premium. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy. The long - term contracts may trade the capacity reduction logic after the spot price turns, but the implementation path is uncertain. Pay attention to the pressure after the price rises. Before the Spring Festival, pay attention to risk control and keep a light position [20][21] - For pigs, the basic supply is large and the live - animal inventory is accumulating. The spot price and near - term expectations are pessimistic. The near - term may still be under pressure, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. The long - term capacity decline has been revised down, but there are still expectations of a high fat - to - standard price difference, seasonal support, and recovery of consumption demand. Pay attention to the support at the lower level after the price follows the decline. Before the Spring Festival, pay attention to risk control and keep a light position [23][24] Summary by Commodity Sugar Domestic - On Thursday, the domestic sugar spot price index dropped by 7 yuan/ton to 5,294 yuan/ton. In January, the sugar production was 263,000 tons, and the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season was 3.21 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of January, the cumulative national sugar production was 6.89 million tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons year - on - year. In January, the sugar sales volume was 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons year - on - year. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 39.1%, a decrease of 10.75 percentage points year - on - year. The industrial inventory was 4.19 million tons, an increase of 430,000 tons year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 69,700 tons, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons [2] Foreign - According to UNICA data, as of the first half of January in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.23 million tons, an increase of 345,000 tons year - on - year. According to data from the Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week of February 4, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons compared with the previous week. As of the end of January 2026 in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in India was 19.5 million tons, an increase of 2.97 million tons year - on - year; the cumulative sugar production in Thailand was 4.8 million tons, a decrease of 460,000 tons year - on - year [3] Cotton Domestic - On Thursday, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B rose by 40 yuan/ton to 16,069 yuan/ton. As of February 6, the spinning mill operating rate was 60.5%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points compared with the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.52 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons compared with the previous week. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year; the cumulative cotton imports in the 2025/26 season were 560,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 20,000 tons year - on - year; the cumulative cotton yarn imports in the 2025/26 season were 720,000 tons, an increase of 110,000 tons year - on - year [6] Foreign - From January 22 to January 29, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a decrease of 194,900 tons year - on - year. Among them, the export to China in that week was 8,800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a decrease of 66,000 tons year - on - year. The February USDA monthly supply - demand report was neutral. The February forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26.1 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared with the January forecast and an increase of 300,000 tons compared with the previous year. The increase in production forecast came from China, with the February forecast for China's production being 7.62 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared with the January forecast. The global consumption forecast was 25.85 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared with the January forecast and a decrease of 50,000 tons compared with the previous year. The global ending inventory forecast was 16.35 million tons, an increase of 130,000 tons compared with the January forecast and an increase of 290,000 tons compared with the previous year. The global inventory - to - consumption ratio forecast was 62.27%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points compared with the January forecast and an increase of 1.25 percentage points compared with the previous year. In other major producing countries, the US export volume forecast was reduced by 40,000 tons to 2.61 million tons compared with the January forecast, while the forecasts for China, Brazil, and India changed little [6][8][9] Protein Meal Domestic - On Thursday, the spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was reported at 3,060 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was reported at 2,510 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. As of February 6, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 260,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.91 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 1.6 million tons year - on - year; the sample soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 900,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 516,000 tons year - on - year [12] Foreign - The February USDA monthly supply - demand report was neutral. The February forecast for global soybean production was 428 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons compared with the January forecast and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year. The global soybean consumption forecast was 424 million tons, an increase of 1.6 million tons compared with the January forecast and an increase of 11.24 million tons compared with the previous year. The global soybean ending inventory forecast was 125 million tons, an increase of 1.11 million tons compared with the January forecast and an increase of 2.12 million tons compared with the previous year. The global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio forecast was 29.55%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points compared with the January forecast and a decrease of 0.29 percentage points compared with the previous year. In major producing countries, the production forecasts for the US and Argentina remained unchanged, and the production forecast for Brazil was increased by 2 million tons to 180 million tons compared with the January forecast. The US soybean export volume and China's soybean import volume forecasts remained unchanged. From January 22 to January 29, the US exported 440,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 34.29 million tons, a decrease of 8.27 million tons year - on - year. Among them, the export of soybeans to China in that week was 230,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative export of soybeans to China was 9.89 million tons, a decrease of 10.33 million tons year - on - year [13] Oils and Fats Domestic - On Thursday, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8,560 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 8,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 9,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. As of February 6, the inventory of the three major oils in domestic sample data was 1.92 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, the sample palm oil inventory was 726,700 tons, an increase of 25,300 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 264,900 tons compared with the same period last year; the sample soybean oil inventory was 960,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 73,400 tons compared with the same period last year; the sample rapeseed oil inventory was 240,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 369,800 tons compared with the same period last year [16] Foreign - According to data released by MPOB, the palm oil production in Malaysia in January was 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 250,000 tons compared with the previous month and an increase of 340,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The export volume in January was 1.48 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons compared with the previous month and an increase of 320,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The inventory in January was 2.82 million tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons compared with the previous month and an increase of 1.24 million tons compared with the same period last year. According to data from ITS, from February 1 to 10, 2026, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil was 451,000 tons, a decrease of 10.5% compared with the same period in January. According to data from AmSpec, from February 1 - 10, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil was 399,000 tons, a decrease of 14.2% compared with the same period in January. According to Indonesian customs data, Indonesia exported 2.79 million tons of palm oil in January, an increase of 1.36 million tons compared with the previous month and an increase of 900,000 tons year - on - year. According to USDA data, the February forecast for the 2025/26 Malaysian palm oil production was 20.2 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons compared with the January forecast; the production forecast for Indonesia remained unchanged at 46.7 million tons. In other aspects, the US soybean oil consumption forecast remained unchanged, and the Canadian rapeseed production forecast remained unchanged [16][18] Eggs - Near the Spring Festival, the market trading volume decreased. Most markets had no mainstream trading prices. The Xinji market remained stable at 2.67 yuan/jin, and the Dongguan market rose by 0.24 yuan to 3.43 yuan/jin. It is expected that today's egg prices will mainly stop reporting or remain stable [20] Pigs - Yesterday, domestic pig prices showed mixed trends. The average price in Henan rose by 0.24 yuan to 12.18 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 10.8 yuan/kg. Near the Spring Festival, the slaughter volume of the breeding side gradually decreased, and a small number of slaughtering enterprises stopped work. The trading volume in the pig market decreased. It is expected that today's pig prices may remain stable [23]