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格林大华期货早盘提示-20250926
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 23:34
Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 09 月 26 日星期五 研究员: 张晓君 从业资格:F0242716 交易咨询资格:Z0011864 联系方式:0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示,昨日深加工企业收购价涨跌互现。东北地区深加 | | | | | 工企业主流收购均价2151元/吨,较前一日跌4元/吨;华北地区深加工企业主流收购 | | | | | 价2370元/吨,较前一日持平。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示,南北港口价格北弱南强。锦州港(15%水/容重6 | | | | | 80-720)收购价2230-2240元/吨,较前一日跌10-20元/吨;蛇口港散粮玉米成交价2 | | | | | 390元/吨,较前一日涨10元/吨。 | | | | | 3、玉米期货仓单数量继续减少。截至9 ...
CBOT农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨,小麦期货涨1.30%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-25 22:10
Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) saw a comprehensive increase in agricultural futures on September 25, with notable gains in soybean, corn, and wheat futures [1] Group 1: Agricultural Futures Performance - Soybean futures rose by 0.30%, closing at 1012.00 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures increased by 0.12%, ending at 424.75 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures experienced a significant rise of 1.30%, closing at 526.25 cents per bushel [1]
银河期货每日早盘观察-20250925
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 11:43
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 9 月 25 日 公众号二维码 银河农产品及衍生品 粕猪研究:陈界正 期货从业证号:F3045719 投资咨询证号:Z0015458 棉禽苹果白糖研究: 刘倩楠 期货从业证号:F3013727 投资咨询证号:Z0014425 玉米花生:刘大勇 期货从业证号: F03107370 投资咨询证号:Z0018389 棉禽研究:王玺圳 期货从业证号: F03118729 投资咨询证号:Z0022817 油脂研究:张盼盼 期货从业证号: F03119783 投资咨询证号:Z0022908 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 【外盘情况】 CBOT 大豆指数下跌 0.7%至 1028.5 美分/蒲,CBOT 豆粕指数下跌 0.74%至 280.6 美金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.USDA 出口销售前瞻:截至 2025 年 9 月 18 日当周,预计美国 2025/26 市场 年度大豆出口净销售为 60-160 万吨;预计美国 2024/25 市场年度豆粕出口净销售 介于 0-5 万吨,2025/26 市场年度豆粕出口净销售为 15-40 万吨。 2.油世界:欧盟将 EUDR ...
瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250925
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 10:44
| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 10142 | 221 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2444 | 49 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 484 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) 347712 | 0 菜粕月间价差(1-5)(日,元/吨) 41507 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 101 378057 | 25 -20054 | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 39516 | 21725 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -51747 | 21457 | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 8057 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 9245 | 0 | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 617.6 | 0.3 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5281 | 1 | | 现货市场 | 现货价:菜油:江苏(日,元/吨) 10 ...
油料日报:花生需求平淡,价格持续震荡-20250925
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 05:37
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The demand for peanuts is weak, and prices are continuously fluctuating. The new - season soybeans in major producing areas are gradually coming onto the market, with overall good supply and price pressure [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary of Soybean - Related Content Market Analysis - In the futures market, the closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract yesterday was 3907.00 yuan/ton, a change of +29.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.75%. In the spot market, the basis of edible soybeans was A11 + 313, a change of - 29 from the previous day, a decrease of 32.14% [1] - New - season soybeans in Northeast China are gradually coming onto the market, with the purchase price of raw grains between 1.8 - 2 yuan/jin. Due to climate impact this year, the protein content has declined, and the prices of high - protein sources are firm. In the south, Jiangsu large - white - skinned soybeans have recently come onto the market, with raw grain prices of 2.7 - 2.9 yuan/jin and clean grain prices of 3 - 3.15 yuan/jin. Yesterday, the soybean futures price fluctuated. The purchase price in the Northeast is weak, while the price in the South is stable. Overall supply is good, and prices are under pressure [1][2] Group 4: Summary of Peanut - Related Content Market Analysis - In the futures market, the closing price of the peanut 2511 contract yesterday was 7762.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.08%. In the spot market, the average peanut price was 8440.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.12%. The basis was PK11 + 438.00, a change of +6.00 from the previous day, an increase of +1.39% [3] - The average price of national peanut general rice is 4.22 yuan/jin, basically stable. Shandong oil mills' contract purchase price for general rice is 8400 yuan/ton, and Henan oil mills' is 7800 yuan/ton. New peanut - producing areas are increasing, but the overall supply is still small. With the approaching of the Double Festival, downstream stocking demand is still weak, and oil mills' contract purchase prices are stable with limited purchases [3]
农产品日报:郑糖小幅反弹,棉价继续承压-20250925
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 05:30
Report Investment Ratings - The overall strategy for the cotton, sugar, and pulp markets is neutral [2][6][8] Core Views - Cotton: New cotton has support before large - scale listing, but pressure will be released during the centralized listing period. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation is not expected to be too loose after seasonal pressure [2] - Sugar: Affected by raw sugar, it may fall below the key support level, but there is cost support. In the medium - term, it should be treated with a bearish view [6] - Pulp: The fundamentals have insufficient improvement, and the short - term price may continue to fluctuate at a low level [8] Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,024 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,062 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [1] - India's cotton planting area was 10.964 million hectares, a 2.5% decrease from last year [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5497 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton (+0.97%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - StoneX predicted that Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 2026/27 season would reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% increase [3] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5044 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Arauco silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5610 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis Cotton - International: The September USDA report adjusted up global cotton production and consumption, and adjusted down the beginning and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but the export sales progress is slow [1] - Domestic: The cotton de - stocking speed is fast, the commercial inventory is at a low level, and the supply is tight at the end of the year. However, the new - year production increase expectation is strong, and the hedging pressure is large during the new - flower listing period [1] Sugar - Raw sugar: The sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The production increase expectation in the Northern Hemisphere remains, suppressing the raw sugar price [4] - Zhengzhou sugar: The domestic production and sales in August were not good, the import volume reached a new high, and the supply is sufficient in the short - term [4] Pulp - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual transactions in September were poor, and the supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: The consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and the domestic demand is also soft, which suppresses the pulp price [7]
软商品日报:新棉批量上市,棉花短期承压-20250925
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:30
| 走势评级: | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号:F0289189 投资咨询证号:Z0011152 联系电话:0571-28132619 邮箱:zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 商品研究 期货研究报告 新棉批量上市,棉花短期承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep:ortDate] 2025-09-25 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 资讯:南宁白糖现货价 5780.0 元,昆明白糖现货价 5800.0 元,新疆棉花 现货价 15050.0 元。 软商品日报 盘面:美白糖收 16.12,涨跌幅-0.25%。美棉花收 66.14,涨跌幅-0.71%。 棉花——震荡 供需: 白糖:受暑期冷饮需求带动,食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大, 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花:8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少,棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降,同时棉纺织旺季即将到来,棉价存在 底部支撑。 库存仓单:郑糖仓单 9854.0 张,涨跌幅为-1.68%;郑棉仓单 3716.0 张, 涨跌幅为-5.0 ...
五矿期货农产品早报-20250925
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Protein Meal**: In the short - term, the domestic supply of soybeans has great pressure, and the temporary cancellation of export tax in Argentina drives soybean meal prices down. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is loose, suggesting a strategy of short - selling on rebounds. However, due to the low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the soybean meal market will fluctuate within a range [3][5]. - **Oils**: The low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the draft US biodiesel policy boosting soybean oil demand, and the expected decline in exportable volume of Indonesian biodiesel support the price center of oils. Oils are in a state of balanced or slightly loose current supply - demand and tight expected supply - demand, and are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - term. Currently, with high valuation, the strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - **Sugar**: Affected by factors such as high import volume in August and increased sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region, the overall trend of sugar prices is bearish. Technically, it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day holiday [11][12]. - **Cotton**: Although it is the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the downstream industrial chain's operating rate growth is weak, and there is an expectation of increased domestic production in the far - month. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton prices are bearish, but low domestic cotton inventory and low prices may provide support, so short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [14][15]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is expected to decline. The near - month futures contract is weak, while the far - month contract is relatively strong due to the expected improvement in supply - demand and capital game. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contract after a decline [17][18]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price shows a slight accelerating downward trend. The futures market may continue to be weak in the short - term. The strategy is to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being aware of high - position risks [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Protein Meal - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, US soybeans declined slightly. Argentina temporarily cancelled export tax, which is negative for international soybean prices. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped slightly by about 10 yuan/ton, with good trading volume and high pick - up volume. Last week, domestic port soybean inventory decreased by 700,000 tons, and soybean meal inventory increased by 90,000 tons. This week, the expected soybean crushing volume is 2.39 million tons. The total scale of about $7 billion for soybeans, corn, and wheat corresponds to nearly 7 - 8 million tons of soybean products (converted to soybeans). Argentina's November soybean premium is about 100 cents per bushel lower than Brazil's [3]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, the domestic supply pressure is large, and the cancellation of Argentina's export tax drives soybean meal prices down. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is loose, but due to low US soybean valuation and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the market will fluctuate within a range [5]. Oils - **Market Information**: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, and production decreased by 3.17% compared with the same period last month. In July, Indonesia's palm oil exports decreased, production increased, inventory increased, and domestic consumption decreased. On Wednesday, domestic three major oils rebounded. The recent decline in oils was due to weak Malaysian palm oil exports and short - term price cuts in Argentina [7]. - **Strategy**: Supported by factors such as low inventory in India and Southeast Asian producing areas and the draft US biodiesel policy, oils are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - term. Currently, with high valuation, the strategy is to buy on dips [9]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The closing price of the January contract was 5,497 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton or 0.97% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. StoneX predicted that Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production in the 2026/27 season will reach 42.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [11]. - **Strategy**: Affected by high import volume and increased production in Brazil, the overall trend of sugar prices is bearish. Technically, it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day holiday [12]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the January contract was 13,555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. As of September 19, the spinning mill's operating rate was 66.6%, and the weaving mill's operating rate was 37.9%. As of September 21, the US cotton good - to - excellent rate was 47% [14]. - **Strategy**: Although it is the consumption peak season, the downstream operating rate growth is weak, and there is an expectation of increased production in the far - month. Short - term prices are bearish, but low inventory and low prices may provide support, so short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the national egg price was mainly stable, with a few rising or falling. The average price in the main producing areas remained at 3.62 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened, with general sales. Today's egg price may be stable or decline [17]. - **Strategy**: The spot price is expected to decline. The near - month futures contract is weak, while the far - month contract is relatively strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contract after a decline [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices showed a mixed trend. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.1 yuan to 12.78 yuan/kg. With sufficient supply of standard pigs and approaching the double - festival holiday, downstream stocking enthusiasm may gradually increase. Today's pig price may be stable or decline [20]. - **Strategy**: The current spot price shows a slight accelerating downward trend. The futures market may continue to be weak in the short - term. The strategy is to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being aware of high - position risks [21].
格林大华期货早盘提示-20250925
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 00:19
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Low long [3] - Pig: Range trading [5] - Egg: High short [5] 2. Core Views - **Corn**: Short - term, pay attention to import corn auction rhythm and corn - wheat price difference; mid - term, conduct band trading around new - season corn drivers; long - term, maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost and focus on policy orientation [3] - **Pig**: Short - term, supply exceeds demand, pressuring pig prices; mid - term, supply is expected to increase, limiting price increases; long - term, pig production capacity will continue to materialize if no epidemic occurs [5] - **Egg**: Mid - short - term, holiday stocking weakens, and egg prices may decline if inventory rises; long - term, focus on the extent of chicken culling, and supply pressure may re - emerge in Q4 [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn Important Information - Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices vary: Northeast down 12 yuan/ton to 2155 yuan/ton, North China up 18 yuan/ton to 2370 yuan/ton [3] - Port prices: North weak, South stable. Jinzhou Port down 10 yuan/ton, Shekou Port unchanged [3] - Corn futures warehouse receipts unchanged at 23814 as of September 24 [3] - Wheat - corn price difference in Shandong is + 80 yuan/ton, narrowing by 10 yuan/ton [3] - Corn bidding procurement: 2.15 million tons planned, 1.91 million tons transacted, 89% success rate [3] - August 2025 national industrial feed output is 29.36 million tons, up 3.7% MoM and 3.8% YoY [3] Market Logic - Short - term, support at 2050 - 2150 yuan/ton, pressure from wheat - corn price difference [3] - Mid - term, conduct band trading around new - season corn, with wide - range trading [3] - Long - term, follow import substitution and planting cost pricing, focus on policies [3] Trading Strategy - Mid - long - term, maintain range trading; short - term, look for low - long opportunities. Support for 2511 contract at 2100 - 2130, 2601 contract at 2100 - 2120 [3] Pig Market Review - LH2511 contract closed flat at 12730 yuan/ton yesterday [5] Important Information - National average pig price is 12.51 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg; expected morning prices are weak - stable [5] - July 2025 fertile sow inventory is 40.42 million, 103.64% of normal level; July sow culling up 2.1% MoM [5] - September 24 fattening - standard price difference is 0.2 yuan/jin, narrowing by 0.01 yuan/jin [5] - September 18 weekly average slaughter weight is 124.68 kg, up 0.36 kg [5] - September 24 pig futures warehouse receipts down 59 to 368 [5] - 15,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork will be released on September 28 [5] Market Logic - Short - term, supply exceeds demand, North may stop falling, South remains weak [5] - Mid - term, supply is expected to increase, limiting price increases [5] - Long - term, sow inventory is high, production capacity will continue to materialize [5] Trading Strategy - Near - month contracts follow supply - demand logic, suggest taking profit on short positions; far - month contracts trade on de - capacity expectation difference. Support for 2511 contract at 12300 - 12500, 2601 contract at 12800 - 13000, etc. [5] Egg Market Review - JD2511 contract fell 0.46% to 3056 yuan/500kg yesterday [5] Important Information - Egg prices are mainly stable, main production area unchanged, main sales area down 0.02 yuan/jin [5] - Inventory increased slightly, production link stable, circulation link up 0.02 days [5] - Old hen price is 4.5 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin; September 18 average culling age is 497 days, up 2 days [5] - August in - production laying hen inventory is 1.365 billion, up 0.66% MoM and 5.98% YoY; September estimated at 1.353 billion, down 0.8% MoM [5] Market Logic - Mid - short - term, holiday stocking weakens, egg prices may decline with rising inventory [5] - Long - term, focus on chicken culling, supply pressure may re - emerge in Q4 [5] Trading Strategy - Maintain high - short strategy before large - scale culling. Pressure for 2511 contract at 3090 - 3100, etc. Also, breeding enterprises can consider selling hedging opportunities for 2607 and 2608 contracts [5]
红枣日度数据-20250925
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 00:18
红枣09合约 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 =2021 == 2022 == 2024 == 2024 == 2025 红枣墓差(河北沧州) 4000 2000 -2000 -4000 -6000 -8000 =2021 == 2022 == 2023 == 2024 == 2025 红枣目度数据 研究中心农产品团队 2025/9/24 3000 6000 5000 2000 4000 1000 3000 2000 2/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 1000 -1008- -2000 -10001/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 08/01 10/01 11/01 -3000 -2000 - -2021 -- 2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 2025 -2021 -- 2022 -- ...