农产品早报 2025-11-17 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂 【行情资讯】 1、ITS及AMSPEC数据显示，马来西亚11月1-10日棕榈油出口量较上月同期减少9.5%-12.28%。SPPOMA 数据显示马来西亚棕榈油 11 月前 5 日产量环比增加 6.8%，11 月 1-10 日产量环比上月同期下降 2.16%。 2、据外媒报道，咨询公司 Glenauk Economics 的董事总经理兼创始人 Julian McGill 周五表示，随着产量 趋紧，预计到明年第一季度，马来西亚棕榈油期货价格将回升至每公吨 4300-4400 林吉特（1018-1042 美 元）。 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 上周五 CBOT 大豆收跌，USDA ...

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 11 月 17 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：弱势 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 11 月 17 日） 核心逻辑：美国农业部发布的 11 月份供需报告显示，美国大豆产量、出口以及期末库存均较 9 月份 下调。尽管中美达成贸易协议有助于推动美国对华出口增长，但是自协议签订以来美国大豆价格强劲 上涨，美豆相对南美大豆价格没有优势，导致美国出口降低。在美农报告预期兑现后，美豆期价缺乏 进一步驱动，对国内豆类期价支撑减弱。国内油厂受制于库存压力，短期豆粕市场受成本推动与政策 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the downside is limited due to expected improvement in demand. It is expected to fluctuate moderately upwards within the range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include a possible weakening of the Trump administration's support for biodiesel addition policies after China purchases US soybeans, the return of the rainy season in Brazil improving precipitation and accelerating sowing progress, and an expected increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - Positive factors include an expected purchase of 1.2 million tons of US soybeans by China this year and over 2.5 million tons per year in the next three years, a slower - than - expected sowing progress in Brazil, and the possibility of La Niña weather causing a reduction in South American soybean production [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - **US Soybeans**: This week, the price of US soybeans rose and then fell, with an overall increase of 22.75 cents per bushel. Before the monthly report, the market expected it to be bullish, pushing up the price. However, the reduction of export forecasts after the release of the report dampened market sentiment. Next week, attention should be paid to China's procurement rhythm, weather conditions in South American main producing areas, and the progress of biodiesel policies [7][9]. - **US Soybean Meal**: This week, the price of US soybean meal fluctuated and rose. The market was optimistic before the release of the monthly supply - demand report, but the price fell after the report. The market chose to take profits before the weekend. Future price performance needs to closely track the quantity and rhythm of China's purchase of US soybeans [11]. - **US Soybean Oil**: This week, the price of US soybean oil fluctuated and rose slightly. China's return to the US soybean export market weakened the impetus for increased biodiesel addition, and the marginal demand for oils and fats began to deteriorate. Indonesia is expected to increase production by 10% in 2026, exceeding market expectations, and palm oil exports are poor [15]. 3.2 Supply Factors - **US Drought Situation**: The drought rate in US soybean - producing areas remained at 61%, compared with 62% last week. In the next two weeks, there will be more rain in the US, which is unfavorable for the completion of the harvest. The temperature will be warmer [28][30][34]. - **South American Precipitation**: In Brazil, precipitation is low in the central - western and northern regions and high in the eastern region. In Argentina, precipitation in the soybean - producing areas is close to normal, but less rain is forecasted in the second week [35][37]. - **Brazilian Sowing Progress**: As of the week ending November 1, the sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil was 58.4%, compared with 47.1% last week and a five - year average of 57% [39]. 3.3 Demand Factors - **US Soybean Pressing Profit**: As of November 7, the pressing profit of US soybeans was 2.02 dollars per bushel, down from 2.15 dollars last week [42]. - **US Soybean Export**: In the week ending September 26, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 611,200 tons, up from 512,300 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 1.0885 million tons, up from 984,800 tons last week. The net sales this year were 870,500 tons, up from 724,400 tons last week. The sales for the next year were 0 tons, down from 220,000 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China was 0 tons [44][46][48]. 3.4 Other Factors - **ENSO Index**: The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.2, indicating the entry into the La Niña range [55]. - **Soybean Planting Cost**: The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. The planting cost in the US has decreased year - on - year, and the cost in Brazil has also decreased year - on - year [57][59][61]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of September 23, the net short position of soybeans was 18,200 lots, up from 14,400 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 8,040 lots, down from 35,000 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 82,700 lots, up from 59,400 lots last week [63][65][67].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for soybean experienced a decline, with the main contract opening at 4134.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 4213.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.94% increase [1] - Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB) forecasts a record soybean production of 177.6 million tons for the 2025/26 season, slightly down from the previous estimate of 177.67 million tons, with planting area adjusted to 4.906 million hectares [1] - Analysts predict that the U.S. soybean crush volume for October may reach a historical high, according to a report from NOPA [1] Group 2 - Nanhua Futures indicates that the soybean spot prices are in a stalemate, remaining stable at high levels, with limited fluctuations in the Northeast production area and a cautious purchasing behavior from buyers [2] - The market is experiencing a lack of upward price momentum due to sufficient prior inventory and a closed price for state reserves limiting downward price movement [2] - The futures market shows a strong upward trend after a period of high-level consolidation, with bullish momentum continuing [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Brazilian soybean production is expected to continue increasing, and the oil market will fluctuate [1] - Palm oil has been under pressure recently due to inventory build - up expectations, declining exports, and rising production, but the expectation of biodiesel experiments still provides support, and it is not likely to fall sharply in the short term [2] - The passage of the bill by the US House of Representatives and the upcoming USDA report on the 14th will put some pressure on the oil market [2] Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8752.00 yuan/ton, a change of +8 yuan or +0.09% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8316.00 yuan/ton, a change of +28.00 yuan or +0.34% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9975.00 yuan/ton, a change of +135.00 yuan or +1.37% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8650.00 yuan/ton, a change of -30.00 yuan or -0.35%, and the spot basis was P01 - 102.00, a change of -38.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8460.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton or +0.12%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 144.00, a change of -18.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10330.00 yuan/ton, a change of +140.00 yuan or +1.37%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 355.00, a change of +5.00 yuan [1] Market Information Summary Brazilian Soybean Forecast - The estimated soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is 177.6016 million tons, an increase of 6.1199 million tons or 3.6% year - on - year [2] - The estimated soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is 49.0634 million hectares, an increase of 1.7169 million hectares or 3.6% year - on - year [2] - The estimated soybean yield in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is 3.62 tons per hectare, a decrease of 2.0 kg per hectare or 0.1% year - on - year [2] International News - The US House of Representatives has enough votes to pass the temporary appropriation bill, which will be submitted to Trump for signature today [2] - Indian palm oil imports in October were 602,381 tons, compared with 833,017 tons in September [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trend of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil futures prices is expected to be oscillating on the strong side, while the medium - term trend is expected to be oscillating [5][6][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Day - to - day View**: Oscillating on the strong side [5] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [5] - **Reference View**: Oscillating on the strong side [5] - **Core Logic**: After the US government ended the shutdown, the market anticipates that the USDA monthly supply - demand report may lower the US soybean yield forecast. Irregular rainfall in the Brazilian soybean - growing areas has led to the replanting of some soybeans, adding concerns about global supply. In China, although the near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient and the soybean meal inventory is high, concerns about the far - term supply gap provide medium - and long - term support for soybean prices. In the short term, the soybean meal futures price is driven by cost and the expectation of the USDA report, but the rebound space is limited by the domestic spot market's loose pattern [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Day - to - day View**: Oscillating on the strong side [7] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [7] - **Reference View**: Oscillating on the strong side [7] - **Core Logic**: The favorable biodiesel policy in Indonesia offsets the supply pressure, but the weak exports of Malaysian palm oil and the decline in India's import share still drag down the palm oil futures price. In China, the increase in palm oil purchases and the growing expectation of inventory accumulation mean there is a lack of short - term upward drivers. The palm oil market should focus on the production and sales data of Malaysian palm oil and the progress of Indonesia's biodiesel policy. In the short term, the overall price of edible oils has stopped falling and stabilized, the palm oil futures price is oscillating on the strong side, and the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil is being repaired [7]. Other Information on Time Cycles and Influencing Factors - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month (based on the previous day's night - session closing price) [6] - **Influencing Factors**: For soybean meal 2601, the influencing factors include China's tariffs on the US, import arrival rhythm, oil refinery operation rhythm, and inventory pressure; for soybean oil 2601, they include Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory; for palm 2601, they include the biodiesel attribute, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, the tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]

Report Overview - Date: November 14, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Lacks driving forces and is expected to trade sideways [2][8] - Soybean oil: With the stabilization of US soybeans, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil should continue to widen [2][6] - Soybean meal: Expected to trade in a bullish range, awaiting the USDA supply - demand report [2][13] - Soybean: Expected to trade in a bullish range, awaiting the report [2][13] - Corn: Expected to trade sideways [2][16] - Cotton: Lacks upward driving forces, and the futures price has slightly declined [2][20] - Eggs: Expected to maintain a sideways trend [2][26] - Live pigs: The spread between fat and standard pigs is weakening, and driving forces are emerging [2][28] - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][32] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil futures prices showed minor fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 8,752 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.09%, and 8,712 yuan/ton at night, down 0.46%. Spot prices in Guangdong dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 8,570 yuan/ton [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's palm oil production from January - September was over 43 million tons, up 11% year - on - year, and exports were about 25 million tons, up 13.4% year - on - year. The government is considering expanding oil palm plantations by 600,000 hectares next year and will start B50 biodiesel road tests in early December. India's palm oil imports in October decreased compared to September [7][9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [12] Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: The main soybean oil contract closed at 8,316 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.34%, and 8,328 yuan/ton at night, up 0.14%. Spot prices in Guangdong remained unchanged at 8,610 yuan/ton [6] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [12] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,071 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.59%, and 3,076 yuan/ton at night, up 0.46%. DCE soybean 2601 closed at 4,129 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.27%, and 4,168 yuan/ton at night, up 1.12%. Spot basis remained mostly stable [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: CBOT soybean futures closed higher, reaching a 17 - month high. Analysts expect the USDA to lower US soybean production estimates in the upcoming report. The USDA will release the global supply - demand report on Friday [13][15] - **Trend Intensity**: +1 for both soybean meal and soybean, indicating a bullish trend [15] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The main corn contract C2601 closed at 2,186 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.37%, and 2,182 yuan/ton at night, down 0.18%. Spot prices in some regions showed slight increases [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port prices and Guangdong蛇口 prices increased slightly, and Northeast deep - processing corn prices strengthened [18] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [19] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,490 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.18%, and 13,475 yuan/ton at night, down 0.11%. Spot prices in various regions declined slightly [20] - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading weakened, and cotton yarn prices remained stable. ICE cotton futures continued to decline slightly [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [24] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg futures prices declined, with the 2512 contract closing at 3,040 yuan/500 kilograms, down 1.68%, and the 2601 contract closing at 3,530 yuan/500 kilograms, down 1.86%. Spot prices in some regions remained stable [26] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [26] Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of live pigs showed different degrees of increase, with the 2601 contract closing at 11,795 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [28] - **Market Information**: The national feed output in September was 30.36 million tons, up 3.4% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year [29] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish trend [30] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of peanuts showed slight increases, with the PK601 contract closing at 7,966 yuan/ton, up 0.71%. Spot prices in some regions increased [32] - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong, the peanut market showed a trend of low supply and relatively strong prices due to farmers' reluctance to sell [33] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to be fluctuating upward, with soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showing a bias towards strengthening [4]. - **Protein Meals**: Forecasted to have a fluctuating upward trend, including soybean meal and rapeseed meal [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: Anticipated to be fluctuating strongly in the short - term [6]. - **Hogs**: Predicted to be fluctuating weakly, with a "weak present + strong future" pattern [7]. - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to maintain a bottom - fluctuating and high - elasticity trend [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Suggested to take a short - selling approach when prices are high [13]. - **Cotton**: Forecasted to have a short - term range - bound fluctuation and a long - term upward trend [13]. - **Sugar**: Expected to be fluctuating weakly in the medium - to - long - term and range - bound between 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton in the short - term [15]. - **Pulp**: Anticipated to be fluctuating, with a divergence between futures and spot markets [16]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: Forecasted to have a range - bound fluctuation, with a possible first - rising - then - falling trend [17]. - **Logs**: Expected to be fluctuating weakly at a low level [20]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including factors such as supply and demand, macro - environment, and industry policies. It provides short - term and medium - to - long - term outlooks for each product, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks in the agricultural market. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook for Each Product - **Oils and Fats**: The market is affected by factors such as the USDA report, South American weather, and domestic soybean imports. Overall, it is expected to be fluctuating upward, with different trends for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [4]. - **Protein Meals**: Market expectations are that the supply - demand report will be bullish. With the US soybean harvest nearing completion and South American soybean sowing progressing smoothly, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have a fluctuating upward trend [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: The short - term supply shortage has not been alleviated, and prices are expected to be fluctuating strongly. However, there may be pressure on prices in the fourth quarter due to new grain listings [6][7]. - **Hogs**: The market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Short - term supply is large, but long - term supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026 [7]. - **Natural Rubber**: Driven by a strong macro - environment, rubber prices are rising. However, there may be downward pressure on prices without strong expectations or macro - driving forces [9][11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market is rebounding, but due to weak fundamentals and raw material pressure, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach when prices are high [13]. - **Cotton**: After the digestion of previous bullish factors, short - term upward momentum is weak. With increased supply expectations, prices may have a short - term correction, but the cost of new cotton provides support [13]. - **Sugar**: In the international and domestic markets, there is downward pressure on sugar prices in the medium - to - long - term due to expected supply surpluses. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [15]. - **Pulp**: The futures market is driven by capital, while the spot market is affected by factors such as weak demand and supply pressure. Overall, it is expected to be fluctuating [16]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: The market may show a first - rising - then - falling trend, with price rebounds in November and potential declines in December and the first quarter of 2026 [17]. - **Logs**: The market is affected by factors such as supply pressure, demand weakness, and inventory trends. Prices are expected to be fluctuating weakly at a low level [20]. 3.2 Key Information and Data - **Sugar**: On November 13, the Zhengzhou Sugar 01 contract closed at 5512 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [1][13][15]. - **Protein Meals**: On November 12, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes were: US Gulf soybeans at 238 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel or 2.06% from the previous day; US West soybeans at 225 cents/bushel, down 20 cents/bushel or 8.16%; South American soybeans at 220 cents/bushel, up 3 cents/bushel or 1.38%. On November 13, the average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was - 70.4 yuan/ton, up 26.32 yuan/ton or - 27.21% from the previous day [4][5]. - **Corn**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the main contract was 2177 yuan/ton, up 0.93% [6]. - **Hogs**: On November 13, the price of live hogs (external ternary) in Henan was 11.86 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of the live hog futures (active contract) was 11860 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [7]. - **Natural Rubber**: On November 13, the RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14780 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the domestic full - latex old rubber was 14850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of STR20 in the free trade zone was 1860, up 10 [9]. - **Cotton**: On November 13, the Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract closed at 13490 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The number of 24/25 annual warehouse receipts was 2220, down 15; the number of 25/26 annual warehouse receipts was 1960, up 311 [13]. - **Pulp**: According to Zhuochuang Information, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5125 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Pacific pulp was 5465 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the price of Silver Star pulp was 5565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The price of Shandong Goldfish pulp was 4390 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [15]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - **Macro - environment**: The end of the US government shutdown, the release of US economic data, the Fed's monetary policy, and OPEC's adjustment of global oil demand forecasts all have an impact on the agricultural product market [4][9]. - **Supply and demand**: Supply factors include factors such as planting area, yield, and import volume; demand factors include factors such as consumption and inventory. For example, the expected increase in sugar production in India, Thailand, and Brazil, and the new grain listing of corn all affect market supply; the consumption of soybean meal and the inventory of hogs affect market demand [1][4][5][6][7][13][15]. - **Industry policies**: Policies such as import policies for sugar syrup and pre - mixed powder, and the government's attention to hog production reduction all have an impact on the market [7][15].

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw a decline across all major contracts on November 13, with significant drops in various commodities [1] Group 1: Commodity Price Movements - Raw sugar futures decreased by 0.62%, closing at 14.43 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures fell by 0.35%, ending at 64.58 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures experienced a decline of 2.57%, closing at $5,609 per ton [1] - Coffee futures dropped by 1.08%, finishing at 372.60 cents per pound [1]