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研判2025!中国稻壳提纯硅行业发展历程、产业链、发展现状、竞争格局、发展趋势:多家企业积极布局,行业未来发展潜力巨大[图]
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-11-09 02:13
Core Insights - The article highlights the growing significance of rice husk-derived silica as a sustainable alternative to traditional silica sources, addressing both environmental concerns and providing a renewable resource for various industries [1][7]. Industry Overview - Rice husk silica extraction involves obtaining high-purity silica (SiO2) from rice husks, which are by-products of rice processing, containing a high silica content [3][5]. - The industry has seen significant technological advancements in China, leading to rapid market expansion, with projected industry output reaching 430 million yuan in 2024 and exceeding 1 billion yuan by 2030 [1][7]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the rice husk silica industry is linked to rice production and processing, while the downstream applications include sectors such as renewable energy batteries, construction materials, agriculture, and electronics [5][6]. - The high silica content in rice husk ash, which can reach 90%-95.5%, presents a valuable resource for silica extraction, supporting the industry's growth [5]. Market Demand and Trends - There is a continuous increase in demand for rice husk silica due to its applications in various industries, including rubber, plastics, coatings, cosmetics, and pharmaceuticals [12]. - Government policies are increasingly supporting the resource utilization of agricultural waste, enhancing the development of the rice husk silica industry [13]. Competitive Landscape - The industry is becoming more competitive, with key players including companies like Quercus Chemical Co., Yihai Kerry Group, and Jiangsu Jinhua Silicon Green Technology Co., among others [9][10]. - Quercus Chemical Co. has focused on developing technologies that utilize rice husk as a raw material, achieving significant revenue growth [10]. - Yihai Kerry Group has established a circular economy model, utilizing rice husks for energy production and silica extraction, showing strong financial performance [11]. Future Outlook - The internationalization of the rice husk silica industry is expected to accelerate, with domestic companies looking to expand into regions rich in rice husk resources, enhancing their global market presence [14].
4000点拉锯战 | 谈股论金
水皮More· 2025-11-07 09:39
Market Overview - The three major A-share indices experienced a slight decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 4000-point mark, closing at 3997.56 points, down 0.25% [2][3] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.36%, closing at 13404.06 points, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.51%, closing at 3208.21 points [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 199.91 billion, a decrease of 56.2 billion from the previous day [2][3] Market Dynamics - The market showed a tug-of-war around the 4000-point level, entering its fifth round of fluctuations [3] - The indices opened lower due to the significant drop in the US market, with a notable outflow of capital, totaling 471 billion, including 415 billion from northbound funds [3][4] - A total of nearly 3000 stocks declined, while just over 2000 stocks rose, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [3] Sector Performance - Strong sectors included chemical raw materials (especially organic silicon), batteries (including lithium), and photovoltaic equipment [4] - Weak sectors included AI software, internet services, software development, gaming, semiconductors, and consumer electronics, which have shown continuous weakness [4] External Influences - The A-share market's decline was influenced by a significant drop in the US market, particularly in major tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft, both of which saw a 10% drop from their recent highs [5] - Concerns regarding OpenAI's financial discussions and potential government guarantees have led to a sell-off in technology stocks globally [4][5] Key Stock Movements - Notable stock movements included PetroChina rising by 6%, Cambrian rising by 4%, and China Merchants Bank increasing by nearly 4% [6] - The performance of these key stocks contributed significantly to the indices, masking the broader trend of declines among most stocks [6] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment remains cautious, with both bulls and bears adopting a careful approach due to profit-taking pressures and previous strong rebounds [5][6] - The rapid recovery of the indices after a significant drop indicates a volatile market environment, where similar patterns may not be easily replicated [6]
科创板收盘播报:科创50指数跌1.47% 环境保护股涨幅居前
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-07 07:29
Core Points - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index experienced fluctuations on November 7, closing at 1415.69 with a decline of 1.47% and a trading range of 1.39% [1] - The total trading volume was approximately 647.51 billion yuan, showing a decrease compared to the previous trading day [1] - Most stocks on the Sci-Tech board declined, with 185 stocks rising; high-priced stocks generally fell while low-priced stocks mostly increased [1] - In specific sectors, stocks in electrical equipment, chemical raw materials, and environmental protection showed active performance, while software services and healthcare stocks had the largest declines [1] - Excluding one suspended stock, the remaining 591 stocks on the Sci-Tech board had an average decline of 0.49% and an average turnover rate of 2.70%, with a total trading volume of 1.89 trillion yuan and an average trading range of 3.84% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Zhuoyue New Energy led the gainers with a rise of 20%, while Jiahua Technology had the largest decline at 15.26% [1] - In terms of trading volume, Cambrian Technology topped the list with a trading volume of 9.62 billion yuan, while Zhongke Weizhi had the lowest at 0.8283 million yuan [2] - Regarding turnover rate, Heyuan Bio had the highest turnover rate at 30.81%, while Zhongke Weizhi had the lowest at 0.28% [3]
文字早评2025/11/07星期五:宏观金融类-20251107
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 02:29
Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after the previous continuous rise, the hot sectors have been rotating rapidly recently, with technology growth remaining the market's main line. In the long - term, the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - Regarding treasury bonds, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is short - term positive for the bond market sentiment. In the medium term, the bond market in the fourth quarter is mainly affected by the fundamentals, the implementation time of the new fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation power. The overall bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. - For precious metals, the release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations requires a certain period. In the loose monetary policy cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different outlooks. For example, copper prices are expected to be supported; aluminum prices may be strong in the short - term; zinc and lead are expected to be strong in the short - term; nickel requires short - term observation; tin is expected to oscillate; and the performance of other metals also varies according to their respective fundamentals [12][14][17][18][20]. - In the black building materials sector, steel demand has entered the off - season, but future demand may recover. Iron ore prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Glass may oscillate narrowly, and soda ash is expected to be weak and oscillating. The black sector is not pessimistic in the long - term [35][37][39][44]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different strategies. For example, rubber is recommended for short - term long trading; crude oil is recommended for a low - buying and high - selling range strategy; methanol and urea are recommended for observation; and other products also have corresponding trading suggestions based on their fundamentals [56][58][59][61]. - In the agricultural products sector, for pigs, the strategy is to go short on rallies; for eggs, it is expected to be strong in the short - term; for soybean meal, it is recommended to go short on rebounds; for oils, the strategy depends on palm oil production; for sugar, it is recommended to short after the rebound weakens; and for cotton, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [81][83][85][87][90][92]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: Solid - state batteries, hydrogen energy storage and other new energy storage technologies are accelerating development. A 70 - billion - yuan fund is planned for the "debt - assumption" acquisition of polysilicon platform enterprises. The Ministry of Commerce responded to issues related to Nexperia. Tianci Materials will supply electrolyte products to Zhongchuang Xinhang and Guoxuan High - tech [2]. - **Strategy**: After the previous continuous rise, the hot sectors rotate rapidly, and technology growth is the main line. The policy supports the capital market, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On November 5, the Ministry of Finance issued 4 billion US dollars of sovereign bonds in Hong Kong. The central bank conducted 92.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is short - term positive for bond market sentiment. In the fourth quarter, the bond market is affected by fundamentals, etc., and is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 0.06%, and Shanghai silver rose 0.11%. Fed hawkish officials expressed concerns about inflation. Gold and silver prices fluctuated within a range [8]. - **Strategy**: In the loose monetary policy cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, with reference price ranges provided for Shanghai gold and silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Due to the weak US labor market, copper prices oscillated and declined. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories also changed [11]. - **Strategy**: With the easing of concerns about the US government shutdown and the improvement of the Sino - US trade situation, copper prices are expected to be supported. The supply of refined copper is expected to be tight, and reference price ranges are provided for Shanghai copper and LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices fluctuated due to supply concerns. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic social inventories of aluminum ingots and rods changed [13]. - **Strategy**: The production of electrolytic aluminum has increased, and the supply - side disturbances are expected to support aluminum prices, with reference price ranges provided for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose slightly, and LME zinc declined. Domestic and overseas inventories and other data changed [15]. - **Strategy**: Domestic zinc mine inventory declined, and smelting profits decreased. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index declined slightly, and LME lead rose. Domestic and overseas inventories and other data changed [18]. - **Strategy**: Lead ore inventory declined, and downstream demand weakened. But due to positive macro events, Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short - term [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated at a low level. Nickel ore and nickel iron prices had different trends [19]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended. If nickel prices fall enough or risk appetite is high, long positions can be gradually established [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin rose. Supply was affected by raw material shortages, and demand from emerging fields provided support [22]. - **Strategy**: Tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and it is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [23]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and production and inventory data changed [24]. - **Strategy**: The direct consumption of lithium carbonate is approaching the annual peak, and inventory depletion is accelerating. Attention should be paid to relevant factors, and a reference price range is provided [25]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and relevant prices and inventories changed [26]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, etc., with a reference price range provided [28]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract rose, and spot prices and raw material prices changed [29]. - **Strategy**: The stainless - steel market is weak, and attention should be paid to raw material prices and terminal demand [30]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose, and relevant data such as position and inventory changed [31]. - **Strategy**: The cost provides support, and supply is tight, so the price is strongly supported [32]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed, and relevant inventory and position data also changed [34]. - **Strategy**: The steel market is in the off - season, but future demand may recover. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [35]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract rose slightly, and relevant data such as spot price and position changed [36]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to support levels [37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract rose, and soda ash also rose. Relevant inventory and position data changed [38][39]. - **Strategy**: Glass may oscillate narrowly, and soda ash is expected to be weak and oscillating [39][40]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose slightly, and relevant technical analysis was provided [41]. - **Strategy**: Macro events did not drive up commodity valuations. The black sector's rebound has adjusted. Although there are "negative feedback" risks, the black sector is not pessimistic in the long - term [42][43][44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon changed, and relevant production, demand, and inventory data also changed [45][48]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to cost support and option games. Polysilicon supply is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to platform company progress [46][49]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. There are different views on the rise and fall of rubber prices [51][52]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on rubber in the short - term and partially build positions for hedging [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE crude oil futures declined, and relevant refined oil futures had different trends. US inventory data changed [57]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to use a low - buying and high - selling range strategy and wait for OPEC's export signal [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed, and relevant basis and spread data also changed [59]. - **Strategy**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to observe [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices were stable, and relevant basis and spread data changed [60]. - **Strategy**: Urea prices are in a low - level consolidation, and it is recommended to observe [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined, and relevant cost, supply, and demand data changed [62]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling, and attention should be paid to relevant spreads [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices declined, and relevant cost, supply, and demand data changed [64]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PVC is strong, and demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol rose, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data changed [67]. - **Strategy**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [68]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA rose, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data changed [69]. - **Strategy**: Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is stable. Attention should be paid to the repair of processing fees [70][71]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene rose, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data changed [72]. - **Strategy**: PX load is high, and it is recommended to observe, mainly following the trend of crude oil [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE declined, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data changed [74]. - **Strategy**: The price of PE is expected to oscillate at a low level [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP declined, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data changed [76]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PP is under pressure, and it is expected to be supported in the first quarter of next year [78]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices fluctuated, and the situation of farmers and slaughterhouses changed [80]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go short on rallies, and cautious investors can use reverse arbitrage positions [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices rose in some areas, and the supply and demand situation was stable [82]. - **Strategy**: Egg prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybeans declined, and domestic soybean meal prices rose [84]. - **Strategy**: Import costs oscillate. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [85]. Oils - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm oil exports and production increased. Domestic oil prices rebounded [86]. - **Strategy**: Palm oil prices may reverse if production decreases. It is recommended to be bearish before exports improve [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou sugar prices oscillated, and the production forecasts of Brazil and India changed [88][89]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short after the rebound of sugar prices weakens [90]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated, and relevant spot prices and acquisition indexes changed [91]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term due to weak fundamentals [92].
海信集团与陶氏公司签署聚氨酯采购意向书
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-07 01:40
Core Insights - During the 8th China International Import Expo on November 6, Dow and Hisense Group signed a procurement letter of intent [1] - Hisense plans to purchase key polyurethane materials, including formulated polyether polyols and PMDI, from Dow by 2026 [1] - These materials will be utilized in Hisense's high-end home appliance products [1]
增强专业人才队伍建设 提升服务丙烯产业水平
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-11-06 16:18
丙烯期货期权的推出,助力构建起从能源到基础化工原料,再到合成材料的完整风险管理链条,有效填 补了这一关键中间环节的空白,为产业链企业提供了公开、透明、高效的风险管理工具,有助于企业锁 定成本、稳定利润、优化经营,进而提升整个产业链的韧性和竞争力。 会上, 东证期货分析师金晓对丙烯定价模式及产业链发展趋势进行了分析。他表示,当前丙烯定价以 成本为主,兼顾PP利润。由于丙烯下游利润普遍不佳,其定价多被动跟随原料端,其中丙烷的影响最 为显著,因PDH单套装置生产规模大且是主要的外放装置,对丙烯商品量影响最大。"目前新投产装置 中一体化装置居多,上下游投产节奏差异不大,丙烯与下游的相对强弱不会有很大变化。在当前丙烯上 下游利润都欠佳的背景下,整条碳三产业链呈现'深度绑定、休戚与共'的格局,只有终端需求率先恢 复,碳三产业链才能迎来下一个繁荣周期。"金晓称。 谈及丙烯衍生品在实体产业的应用,上海煜驰进出口有限公司期现经理钟睿分享了实践经验。他表示, 丙烯期货期权的上市为产业上下游企业带来了前所未有的风险对冲机会,不仅改变了市场竞争格局,还 为企业提供了全新的期现结合交易模式。 为提升分析师的丙烯研究能力和产业服务水平, ...
11月6日热门化工原料全国区域报价总表!
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-06 14:42
International News - Iraq's Prime Minister has ordered the cessation of imports of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene as domestic production meets national consumption needs [1] Domestic News - The Anhui Provincial Ecological Environment Department has announced a special inspection of industrial enterprises' air pollution prevention facilities in 13 cities, focusing on issues such as non-compliance with construction permits and illegal emissions [2] Oil Prices (as of November 6) - 92 gasoline prices range from 7205 to 7561 CNY per ton across various regions, with the highest price in Southwest China [2] - Diesel prices range from 6409 to 6657 CNY per ton, with the lowest price in Northeast China [2] Chemical Prices (as of November 6) - Polypropylene prices range from 6330 to 7550 CNY per ton, varying by region [3] - Polyethylene prices range from 6850 to 10100 CNY per ton, with significant regional differences [3] Alkali Prices (as of November 6) - Liquid caustic soda prices range from 800 to 1280 CNY per ton, depending on concentration and region [4] Alcohol Prices (as of November 6) - Methanol prices range from 1630 to 2450 CNY per ton across different markets [5] Hydrogen Peroxide Prices (as of November 6) - Hydrogen peroxide prices range from 730 to 1790 CNY per ton, depending on concentration and region [5] Chemical Bulk Prices (as of November 6) - Prices for various chemicals such as phosphoric acid, potassium nitrate, and urea show slight fluctuations, with phosphoric acid priced at 3363 to 3447 CNY per ton [6][7]
【财闻联播】不降息,英国央行宣布!上纬新材要约收购交割完成
券商中国· 2025-11-06 12:35
Macro Dynamics - The Ministry of Commerce held a roundtable meeting for foreign enterprises in Shanghai during the China International Import Expo, with over 30 foreign companies and associations participating [2] - The National Medical Insurance Administration announced a pilot program for intelligent review of medical insurance processes, aiming to enhance efficiency and security in fund management [3] Financial Institutions - Former chief analyst at Tianfeng Securities, Kong Rong, is set to become the deputy director of Guolian Minsheng Securities Research Institute, indicating a consolidation of research operations [7] - Li Shengye, deputy director of the Xinjiang branch of the Export-Import Bank of China, is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law [8] Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly 1% to surpass 4000 points, with significant trading volume and a broad market rally, particularly in the chemical and aluminum sectors [9] - As of November 5, the financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was reported at 1,254.887 billion yuan, showing a slight increase, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's balance decreased [10] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index increased by 2.12%, with notable gains in the semiconductor and technology sectors [11] Company Dynamics - Fushun Special Steel is supplying key structural materials, including GH3535 alloy, for China's first thorium-based molten salt reactor project, positioning itself as a core materials supplier [13] - BGI Genomics reported a net profit of 1.139 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong sales of its proprietary products [15] - Hwa Hong Semiconductor achieved a record sales revenue of 635.2 million USD in Q3, marking a 20.7% year-on-year increase [19] - Chow Tai Fook closed over 900 stores in the past year, reflecting challenges in the retail environment despite rising gold prices [20]
新 和 成(002001) - 2025年11月5日-6日投资者关系活动记录表
2025-11-06 09:24
Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 166.42 billion CNY, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 55.41 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year revenue growth of 5.45% and a net profit increase of 33.37% [3] - The company has maintained steady growth through production and sales linkage, market expansion, and cost control measures [3] Product Development and Market Strategy - The company focuses on the "Chemical+" and "Biological+" strategies, targeting opportunities in nutrition products, new materials, flavoring agents, and active pharmaceutical ingredients [3] - In the human nutrition sector, the company offers a range of products including vitamins A, D3, E, C, coenzyme Q10, taurine, β-carotene, and lycopene, with a commitment to customized formulations for various applications [3] - The solid methionine production capacity is currently at 30,000 tons, with an expansion project underway [3] Strategic Partnerships and Projects - The company has partnered with Sinopec to establish a joint venture for a liquid methionine project, with a production capacity of 18,000 tons/year [3] - The nylon new materials project in Tianjin has commenced construction, focusing on an integrated production chain from adiponitrile to nylon 66 [4] Future Plans and Innovations - The company aims to enhance its core competitiveness in the new materials sector by developing high-performance polymers and key intermediates [4] - The company is expanding its flavor and fragrance segment, with plans for a new fragrance industrial park in Shandong [4] - The Heilongjiang base is focused on bio-fermentation products, with ongoing improvements in product lines and operational efficiency [4] International Expansion - Over 50% of the company's sales are from international markets, with established subsidiaries in regions including Hong Kong, Singapore, Germany, Mexico, Brazil, Japan, and Vietnam [6] - The company emphasizes overseas market expansion as part of its 2025 operational strategy [6] Employee Engagement and Incentives - The company is implementing a share buyback program with a total amount between 30 million to 360 million CNY, aimed at employee stock ownership plans to enhance motivation and align interests [6]
国泰君安期货所长早读-20251106
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 01:53
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US "small non - farm" ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations, showing signs of stabilization after two consecutive months of decline. Fed Governor Milan believes that continued interest rate cuts are a "reasonable action" [7]. - Cotton futures are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. New cotton costs and high basis provide strong support, but hedging pressure limits upward momentum [9]. - The long - term bottom of the black sector has emerged. Carbon elements are stronger than iron elements, with the strength order being coking coal > steel > iron ore [12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Economic Data - The US 10 - month ADP employment increased by 42,000, far exceeding the expected 30,000, and reversing the previous decline. Service industries added 32,000 jobs, and commodity - producing industries added 9,000 jobs. However, some industries such as information services and manufacturing had job losses [7]. 3.2 Cotton - Seed cotton procurement is nearly over. The average cost of domestic cotton in the 2025/26 season is basically determined. New cotton costs and high basis support cotton futures, but due to regional cost differences, a large domestic cotton harvest, and average downstream demand, hedging pressure restricts upward movement [9]. 3.3 Black Sector - Long - term bottom: Coking coal has a production - cut expectation, which can reverse the oversupply situation; soft - landing interest rate cuts will release liquidity, increasing overseas demand and Chinese industrial product exports; to break out of the deflation spiral, demand needs to be boosted again. - Variety strength relationship: Iron elements had a large correction because macro - level benefits were mostly realized, iron ore shipments increased, and inventory accumulation was fast. Carbon elements (coking coal and coke) were strong. Coking coal inventory was not high, and upstream mines were still reducing inventory, while downstream rigid demand and winter - storage replenishment expectations supported prices. The strength order is coking coal > steel > iron ore [12]. 3.4 Other Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold is affected by government shutdown on liquidity; silver is expected to rebound in a volatile manner [15][19]. - **Base Metals**: Copper lacks a clear driving force and will oscillate; zinc will move in a range; lead is supported by a decrease in overseas inventory; tin is affected by macro factors; aluminum is expected to run strongly; alumina rebounds from the bottom; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [15][23][37]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Carbonate lithium will oscillate weakly; industrial silicon's disk is strong due to warehouse - receipt reduction; polysilicon's disk may correct due to unmet news - based expectations [15][43][48]. - **Ferrous Metals**: Iron ore will fluctuate at a high level; rebar and hot - rolled coil will oscillate weakly due to sector sentiment; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will have wide - range oscillations due to a multi - empty game; coke and coking coal will fluctuate at a high level [15][51][54][58][61]. - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; eggs are in an adjustment phase; live pigs' spot - market contradictions are gradually being released; peanuts need attention to the spot market [17].