Oil Market - Oil prices rose to their highest level since early December due to concerns over supply disruptions from Iran, with WTI crude closing above $59 per barrel, marking a cumulative increase of over 6% in the previous three trading days [2][9] - Iran's political and military unrest poses a threat to its oil production of approximately 3.3 million barrels per day, with potential military action from the U.S. being a significant concern [10][2] Base Metals - Copper prices initially surged by 2.5% to $13,323 per ton but later retraced some gains, influenced by a weaker dollar and supply concerns [4][13] - Other base metals like aluminum and tin reached their highest levels since 2022, although they also experienced a pullback due to market volatility and a rebalancing of a benchmark commodity index [5][14] - As of the London market close, LME copper was up 1.6% at $13,209.5 per ton, while LME aluminum rose 1.6% to $3,184.5 per ton [15] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices reached record highs amid concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, with gold surpassing $4,600 per ounce and silver rising by up to 8% to over $86 [7][16] - The potential for increased intervention by the Federal Reserve is seen as a key factor that could positively influence the precious metals market in the coming years [16] - As of 3:15 PM EST, gold was up 2.1% at $4,603.22 per ounce, and silver was up 6.6% at $85.1554 per ounce [17]

Core Viewpoint - London base metals experienced a broad increase on January 12, with significant percentage gains across various metals [1] Group 1: Price Movements - LME tin rose by 5.47% to $48,200.0 per ton [1] - LME nickel increased by 2.12% to $18,075.0 per ton [1] - LME zinc saw a rise of 2.05% to $3,213.5 per ton [1] - LME copper climbed by 1.59% to $13,172.0 per ton [1] - LME aluminum gained 1.33% to $3,191.0 per ton [1] - LME lead increased by 0.32% to $2,053.0 per ton [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The report highlights significant fluctuations in precious metals, driven by changes in margin requirements and adjustments in commodity index weights, leading to a rebound in precious metals prices following disappointing non-farm payroll data [3] - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook on precious metals due to ongoing geopolitical events and expectations of monetary easing, suggesting investors should hold positions despite market volatility [3] - For copper, the report recommends buying on dips, citing expected supply-demand tightness in 2026 due to production cuts from major producers and increased fiscal spending expectations from the U.S. government [4] - The aluminum market is also recommended for buying on dips, with strong macro policy expectations and geopolitical risks providing support despite current demand pressures [4] - Tin prices have surged past 350,000 yuan/ton, driven by significant inventory reductions and ongoing demand from AI capital expenditures, with a recommendation to buy on dips [5] - Lithium prices continue to rise, with a recommendation to buy on dips, supported by supply constraints and strong demand expectations [5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw an 8.3% increase this week, ranking fifth among sectors [13] Prices - LME copper decreased by 0.93%, aluminum increased by 1.91%, zinc decreased by 1.84%, lead increased by 0.84%, and tin increased by 7.38% [18] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold rise by 1.32%, silver by 4.29%, and NYMEX palladium by 5.73%, while platinum fell by 18.09% [18] - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 17.15% [18] Inventory - Global visible copper inventories increased by 31,985 tons, while aluminum saw a decrease of 809 tons, zinc decreased by 900 tons, lead decreased by 11,300 tons, and tin decreased by 916 tons [24][26]

Precious Metals Futures - Spot gold surpassed $4510 per ounce, increasing by 0.73% for the day; New York futures gold exceeded $4520 per ounce, rising by 1.33% [1][10] - As of the week ending January 6, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported that speculators reduced net long positions in New York COMEX gold by 2,617 contracts to 124,256 contracts [1][10] - Spot silver broke through $80 per ounce, gaining 4.05% for the day; New York futures silver also surpassed $80 per ounce, increasing by 6.46%; the continuous main contract for silver rose by 7%, currently at 19,588.00 yuan [1][10] - CFTC data indicated that silver speculators increased net long positions by 1,063 contracts to 17,658 contracts [2][11] Base Metals Futures - CFTC data showed that as of January 6, speculators in New York COMEX copper reduced net long positions by 3,537 contracts to 66,896 contracts [3][12] - Tin's continuous main contract increased by 4% for the day, currently priced at 362,990.00 yuan [4][12] Energy and Shipping Futures - WTI crude oil rose by 3% for the day, currently at $59.37 per barrel; it previously surpassed $59 per barrel, increasing by 2.36% [5][13] - U.S. natural gas futures continued to decline, dropping over 8.00%, currently at $3.133 per million British thermal units; during the day, it fell over 5.00%, 6.00%, and 7.00%, reaching a low of $3.168 per million British thermal units [5][13] Agricultural Futures - Methanol's continuous main contract increased by 2% for the day, currently at 2,290.00 yuan; PTA's continuous main contract also rose by 2%, currently at 5,192.00 yuan [6][14] Macro and Market Impact - Trump stated that oil companies would receive security guarantees in Venezuela, leading to Chevron's stock rising over 1.8%; during his remarks on Venezuelan oil issues, Chevron and ExxonMobil's stocks increased by over 1%, while ConocoPhillips' stock fell by over 1% [7][15] - Trump also mentioned that Venezuela agreed to allow the U.S. to refine up to 50 million barrels of oil, with 30 million barrels delivered to the U.S. the previous day [8][15] - The Venezuelan government announced the initiation of "exploratory diplomacy" with the U.S. to restore diplomatic missions [9][16]

Core Viewpoint - The London base metals market experienced a collective increase in prices on January 9, with significant weekly gains across various metals [1] Group 1: Price Movements - LME copper rose by 2.07% to $12,965.5 per ton, with a weekly increase of 3.98% [1] - LME zinc increased by 0.57% to $3,149 per ton, with a weekly rise of 0.7% [1] - LME nickel surged by 3.72% to $17,700 per ton, marking a weekly gain of 5.23% [1] - LME aluminum climbed by 1.98% to $3,149 per ton, with a weekly increase of 4.43% [1] - LME tin saw a significant rise of 4.64% to $45,700 per ton, with a weekly increase of 13.09% [1] - LME lead rose by 1.49% to $2,046.5 per ton, with a weekly gain of 1.99% [1]

Group 1: Oil Market - Crude oil prices increased as traders assessed multiple geopolitical risks that could lead to premiums, while also evaluating U.S. controls on Venezuelan oil [2][14] - WTI crude oil rose by 3.2%, settling at $57.76 per barrel, with prices continuing to climb post-settlement [15] - Brent crude oil for March delivery settled up 3.4% at $61.99 per barrel [16] Group 2: Base Metals - Copper prices fell, with LME copper down 1.39% to $12,720.5 per ton, as the dollar reached a two-week high [6][18] - A recent study by S&P Global indicated that the competition in artificial intelligence and increased defense spending could exacerbate the anticipated copper supply shortage [5][17] Group 3: Precious Metals - Silver prices declined for the second consecutive day, with a potential sell-off of silver futures worth approximately $6.8 billion expected due to annual commodity index rebalancing [10][22] - Following a nearly 4% drop the previous day, silver saw a further decline of 5.5%, driven by passive tracking funds selling to match new index weight requirements [10][22] - Gold prices stabilized, with spot gold rising by 0.48% to $4,477.65 per ounce [12][23]

Core Viewpoint - The majority of base metals in London experienced a decline, with specific fluctuations in prices for various metals on January 8th. Group 1: Price Movements - LME aluminum increased by 0.15%, reaching $3088.0 per ton [1] - LME zinc decreased by 0.92%, settling at $3131.0 per ton [1] - LME copper fell by 1.27%, priced at $12702.0 per ton [1] - LME lead dropped by 2.04%, now at $2016.5 per ton [1] - LME tin saw a decline of 2.18%, priced at $43675.0 per ton [1] - LME nickel experienced the largest drop of 3.34%, now at $17065.0 per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The metal market is expected to be the most prominent sector in commodities for 2025, with silver and copper experiencing significant price increases due to tight supply, resource competition, and investment demand, following a slowdown in gold prices after three years of growth [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - COMEX copper has achieved a monthly increase for five consecutive months, with a monthly growth rate expanding to nearly 8% [1]. - COMEX silver surged over 30% in December, leading to an annual increase of approximately 170% [1]. - The trend of "gold as an anchor, silver and copper in motion" is likely to continue in the foreseeable future, driven by the global trend of "de-dollarization" and the rapid development of new industries such as AI and renewable energy [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for silver is being driven by the rapid growth in the photovoltaic industry and electronic components, leading to a structural shortage in the global silver market for five consecutive years [6]. - Copper demand is stabilizing due to the AI boom, which increases computational needs, while supply constraints are reinforcing copper price stability [6][7]. Group 3: Price Volatility and Future Outlook - Despite the inherent logic supporting metals, short-term volatility is expected to decrease after a year of high fluctuations in 2025 [7]. - The gold price is projected to reach $5,000, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years [7]. - The copper market is transitioning from a tight balance to a shortage expectation, with prices around $12,000, indicating that further increases will require new narratives [7][8]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The metal market is moving towards a phase of "value reshaping," where refined risk management will replace simple directional bets [8]. - Investors can utilize diversified futures tools, such as micro silver and copper futures, to capture long-term allocation opportunities in strategic assets while navigating a period of reduced volatility [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [2]. - Silver: Prices have corrected from high levels [2]. - Copper: The LME spot premium has declined, and price increases have slowed [2]. - Zinc: Prices are oscillating at high levels [2]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2]. - Tin: Bullish capital has been blocked, and prices have fallen after reaching a high [2]. - Aluminum: Prices have slightly declined [2]. - Alumina: Prices are oscillating within a range [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: It is stronger than electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Prices are oscillating to find a direction [2]. - Palladium: Prices are maintaining an oscillating trend [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between the burden of real - world pressure and the narrative of cycle transformation, with wide - range oscillations [2]. - Stainless steel: The real - world fundamentals are dragging down the market, and the market is mainly betting on Indonesian policies [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 984.84, down 2.22%; the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 391,541, an increase of 46,319. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 18140, down 0.35%; the trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 1,127,485, a decrease of 315,320 [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 97,704 kg, unchanged; the inventory of Shanghai Silver was 755,754 kg, a decrease of 40985 kg [5]. - **News**: China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months. The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data and other macro - news have been released [5][7]. 3.2 Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 103,410, down 1.81%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 758,590, an increase of 114,266. The closing price of LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 12,866, down 2.93% [8]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 96,474 tons, an increase of 3,203 tons; the LME spot premium declined [8]. - **News**: China's copper ore imports in November 2025 increased, and there were developments in copper mines such as labor - contract negotiations in Chile and the progress of domestic copper mines [8][10]. 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24330, up 0.14%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 187735, an increase of 10560. The closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 3245.5, up 1.17% [11]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 40919 tons, an increase of 74 tons; the LME Zinc inventory was 105500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons [11]. - **News**: China's December foreign exchange reserves increased, and there were international geopolitical news such as the US' "commission - selling" of Venezuelan oil [12]. 3.4 Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17830, up 1.77%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 83341, an increase of 26456. The closing price of LME Lead 3M electronic disk was 2071, up 2.04% [14]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead was 13439 tons, a decrease of 25 tons; the LME Lead inventory was 230425 tons, a decrease of 2925 tons [14]. - **News**: The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data and other macro - news have been released [15]. 3.5 Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 359,050, up 2.93%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 459,909, an increase of 134,924. The closing price of LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 44,650, up 0.34% [17]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,780 tons, a decrease of 306 tons; the LME Tin inventory was 5,405 tons, a decrease of 15 tons [17]. - **News**: The memory market has entered a "super - bull market", and there were policies to accelerate the upgrade of intelligent terminals [18]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24360, up 25; the trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 639637, an increase of 87968. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2938, up 120; the trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 1854026, an increase of 1136372. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23035, up 40; the trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 19559, an increase of 1289 [20]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 8.50 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 50.18 million tons, a decrease of 0.25 million tons [20]. - **News**: The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data and the ISM service industry PMI data have been released [21]. 3.7 Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 598.50, down 2.97%; the trading volume of Guangzhou Platinum was 82,828 kg, an increase of 17,632 kg. The closing price of Palladium Futures 2606 was 475.95, up 0.86%; the trading volume of Guangzhou Palladium was 44,238 kg, an increase of 8,209 kg [23]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of NYMEX Platinum was 645,366 ounces, unchanged; the inventory of NYMEX Palladium was 211,306 ounces, unchanged [23]. - **News**: There were international news such as Zelensky's statement on the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US' actions regarding Venezuelan oil [26]. 3.8 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 147,720, up 7,920; the trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 1,132,256, an increase of 393,922. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 13,885, up 490; the trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 547,902, an increase of 243,022 [27]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government has taken measures such as suspending the issuance of new smelting licenses and revising the benchmark price formula for nickel ore [27][28].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Key Focus**: The impact of macroeconomic factors, particularly U.S. monetary and fiscal policies, on precious metals prices, including gold and silver, as well as base metals like copper and zinc. Core Insights and Arguments Precious Metals Market - **Gold Price Dynamics**: The gold market in 2026 will be influenced by U.S. and major economies' monetary policies, with expectations of continued demand for gold ETFs due to a prolonged interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve [1][12]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China, Turkey, Poland, and India, are expected to continue increasing gold reserves, which will support gold prices in the long term [8][9]. - **Silver Demand**: Silver is anticipated to benefit from improved macro liquidity and tight supply-demand fundamentals, with new demand growth from sectors like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI data centers [1][15]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical tensions and the AI narrative will also play significant roles in shaping market sentiment and prices [4][5]. Base Metals Market - **Copper Supply and Demand**: The copper market is expected to see a slight increase in refined copper production in 2026, but overall growth will remain low due to various disruptions, including political instability in Peru and aging mines [24][25]. - **Emerging Demand**: New sectors such as AI and energy storage are projected to drive copper demand, particularly in the U.S. [30]. However, demand from the Chinese electric vehicle sector is expected to decline [33]. - **Zinc Market Outlook**: Zinc supply is expected to improve in 2026, but the overall increase may be limited due to declining ore grades and weak demand from the real estate and home appliance sectors [34][35]. Economic Context - **U.S. Economic Conditions**: The U.S. economy is currently in a recovery phase, with expectations of continued interest rate cuts, which are favorable for precious metals [10][11]. - **Fiscal Concerns**: The deteriorating fiscal situation in the U.S. is weakening the dollar and U.S. debt credit, prompting a search for more reliable safe-haven assets like gold [14]. Market Sentiment and Future Trends - **AI Narrative**: The AI narrative, while potentially creating a bubble, is seen as a significant driver of economic growth, which could positively impact precious metals if it does not burst [7]. - **Price Adjustments**: Recent adjustments in gold and silver prices after reaching historical highs are viewed as a normal market correction rather than a sign of a market peak [17]. Additional Important Insights - **Platinum Group Metals**: The supply of platinum and palladium is highly concentrated, with South Africa and Russia being the main suppliers. Any disruptions in these regions could significantly impact prices [18][19]. - **Market Volatility**: The concentration of supply in the platinum group metals and the potential for geopolitical disruptions highlight the volatility and risks associated with these markets [18][21]. - **Long-term Projections**: The overall sentiment for precious metals remains optimistic for 2026, driven by ongoing central bank purchases and macroeconomic conditions favoring gold and silver [12][17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the precious metals and base metals markets.