Core Insights - China's trade surplus has historically surpassed $1 trillion, reaching $1.076 trillion in the first 11 months of the year, equating to over $30 billion in daily net earnings from global trade [1][3] Trade Dynamics - The U.S. has rapidly diminished as China's largest trading partner, with trade volume between China and the U.S. declining by 16.9% year-on-year, reducing the U.S. share of China's foreign trade to 8.9%, now the third-largest partner [3] - ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, with trade volume reaching 6.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.5% [3] - In November, China's exports to the U.S. plummeted by 29%, while exports to the EU grew by 14.8% and to Australia surged by 35.8% [5] Export Growth and Product Shifts - Overall exports from China increased by 6.2% year-on-year, with electromechanical products accounting for 60.9% of total exports, growing by 8.8% [6] - High-tech products, particularly integrated circuits, saw a 25.6% increase in exports, while automotive exports grew by 17.6%, with a remarkable 53% growth in November alone [7] - Traditional labor-intensive product exports fell by 3.5%, indicating a shift towards higher value-added products and a transition in China's manufacturing capabilities [9] Role of Private Enterprises - Private enterprises have played a crucial role in reshaping global trade, with their import and export volume reaching 23.52 trillion yuan, a 7.1% increase, now accounting for 57.1% of total foreign trade [9] Import Trends - Imports of bulk commodities have increased in volume but decreased in price, effectively lowering domestic input costs [11] - The import of electromechanical products rose by 7.5%, with integrated circuit imports increasing by 14.8% in volume, reflecting strong domestic production and technological upgrade demands [11] Economic Resilience - China's goods trade in the first three quarters reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a 4% year-on-year increase, marking eight consecutive quarters of growth [12] - The economic foundation remains strong, with long-term positive trends expected to continue [13] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that China's share of global goods exports could rise from approximately 15% to 16.5% by 2030, driven by strengths in electric vehicles and industrial robotics [14]

Core Viewpoint - In November, China's exports in USD terms increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 3.8% and rebounding from a previous decline of -1.1% [2][46] Group 1: Export Strength in Midstream - The export growth rate rebounded significantly in November, with a 7 percentage point increase compared to the previous month, influenced by base effects and resilient demand [4][13] - The manufacturing PMI new export orders showed a substantial recovery across all industries, indicating improved export demand [4][14] - The overall growth momentum has marginally recovered to seasonal averages, with a three-month moving average of 1.1% in November, slightly below the historical average of 1.4% [4][14] Group 2: Category Analysis - Exports are strong in electromechanical products, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.9% from January to November, contributing 87% to the overall export growth [8][20] - The "three main electromechanical products" (cars, ships, integrated circuits) have seen export growth rates exceeding 15% [8][21] - Labor-intensive products, in contrast, showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -4.3% from January to November, negatively impacting overall export growth [8][20] Group 3: Regional Analysis - Exports to emerging markets are strong, while exports to the US are weak, with a year-on-year decline of -28.8% in November [29][56] - The share of exports to the US has decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 11.3%, while ASEAN's share increased by 1.1 percentage points to 17.5% [30][63] - If US import demand stabilizes, China's exports to the US may rebound significantly due to low base effects [30][31] Group 4: Future Export Resilience - In December, the elevated base may lead to a 2-3 percentage point adjustment pressure on year-on-year readings [4][37] - Leading indicators suggest a stable external demand environment, with the electronic supply chain likely to continue supporting growth [4][37] - The cumulative effects of monetary easing are expected to maintain a stable external demand environment, supporting strong resilience in electromechanical exports [4][38]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 出口强在中游——11 月进出口数据点评 事 项 11 月我国以美元计算出口同比 5.9%，预期 3.8%，前值-1.1%；11 月以美元计 价进口同比 1.9%，预期 3%，前值 1.0%。 主要观点 核心观点： 1）11 月出口增速反弹超预期（较上月高 7 个点）有基数的影响（5 个点左右）， 也有需求韧性的支撑。一是 11 月我国制造业 PMI 新出口订单大幅修复且各行 业全面回升，二是出口边际增长动能有所恢复。9-11 月环比平均 1.1%，与历 史同期均值相近，Q3 出口月度环比均值仅有 0.4%（大幅低于过去十年同期平 均 1.4%）。 2）品类来看，出口强在机电（对应中游制造），弱在劳密。1-11 月，我国机电 产品出口累计同比 7.9%，2024 年为 7.4%，其中，"机电三样"（车、船、集成 电路）出口增速均在 15%以上。 3）往后看，①月度视角下，12 月基数抬升，或带来同比读数 2-3 个点的调整 压力。②季度视角下，领先指标显示外需环境稳健，电子链或继续助力增长。 ③半年至一年维度下，货币宽松累积效应驱动的稳定外需环境+机电出口景 气，或支撑出口 ...

Export Performance - In November 2025, China's exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, a rebound of 7.0 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Imports grew by 1.9% year-on-year, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The trade surplus reached $111.68 billion, compared to $90.07 billion in the previous month[1] Regional Analysis - The drag from exports to the United States expanded by 0.6 percentage points to 4.4 percentage points[3] - Exports to the EU, Hong Kong, Africa, ASEAN, and Latin America contributed 1.9, 1.6, 1.5, 1.4, and 1.0 percentage points respectively[3] - ASEAN remains the largest contributor to China's exports, with significant increases from Africa, the EU, Hong Kong, and India compared to 2024[3] Product Analysis - Mechanical and high-tech products were the main drivers of export growth, contributing 4.8 and 1.6 percentage points respectively[3] - Labor-intensive products continued to drag on exports, contributing a negative 0.6 percentage points[3] - Key products like automobiles, ships, and integrated circuits showed strong performance, collectively increasing their contribution to 2.0 percentage points[3] Import Dynamics - Mechanical and high-tech products maintained stable contributions to import growth at 1.8 and 2.5 percentage points respectively[3] - The drag from raw materials decreased to 2.5 percentage points, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Agricultural products' drag on import growth was 0.3 percentage points, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include underwhelming implementation of growth policies, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns[3]

外贸"韧实力"展现新气象 "箱"当给力！12月2日，世界第一大港迎来历史性时刻—— 随着一个身披"红妆"的集装箱被稳稳吊至装箱轮，宁波舟山港年集装箱吞吐量首次突破4000万标准箱， 成为全球第三个达成这一里程碑的港口。 新华社北京12月8日电 中国越发展就越开放，开放是国家繁荣发展的必由之路。 习近平总书记指出，"面对复杂的外部环境，要坚定信心，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩大高水 平对外开放"。 纵观2025年，面对外部冲击影响加大，中国积极识变应变求变，以开放促改革促发展，在加快构建新发 展格局中携手各国共享新机遇、共拓新空间。 川流不息的货车船只、强大的吞吐能力、高效运转的作业系统……港口作为观察我国外贸活力的"晴雨 表"，清晰展现出货物贸易第一大国的强劲韧性。 海关总署副署长王军分析认为，中国外贸之所以稳中有进、量质齐升，主要源于完备产业体系支撑的底 气，新质生产力带来的朝气，以及广大外贸企业迎难而上、开拓进取的锐气。 看产品，以"新"破局。前11个月，中国出口机电产品14.89万亿元，同比增长8.8%。其中，"新三样"产 品、船舶出口增速均超过20%。创新引领、绿色加持的中国制造，在全球竞争力日益 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade shows resilience with a total import and export value of 3.9 trillion yuan in November, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 4.1%, marking a significant recovery from the previous month [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - In November, exports reached 2.35 trillion yuan, up 5.7% year-on-year, while imports were 1.55 trillion yuan, increasing by 1.7% [1] - For the first 11 months, the total import and export value was 41.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, with exports at 24.46 trillion yuan (up 6.2%) and imports at 16.75 trillion yuan (up 0.2%) [1] Group 2: Export Structure - High-tech and high-value-added products are driving export growth, with mechanical and electrical products reaching 14.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, accounting for over 60% of total exports [2] - Integrated circuits and automobiles saw significant growth, with exports of 1.29 trillion yuan (up 25.6%) and 896.91 billion yuan (up 17.6%), respectively [2] - Traditional labor-intensive products have seen a decline, indicating a shift in export structure from quantity to quality [2] Group 3: Trade Entities - The share of private enterprises in foreign trade continues to rise, with their import and export value reaching 23.52 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, accounting for 57.1% of total foreign trade [2] - The number of private enterprises engaged in foreign trade increased by 66,000 year-on-year, with a continuous growth in both exports and imports for nine consecutive months [2] Group 4: Trade Partners - Emerging markets are crucial for stabilizing foreign trade, with trade with ASEAN reaching 6.82 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, accounting for 16.6% of total foreign trade [3] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative totaled 21.33 trillion yuan, up 6% year-on-year, indicating a reduced reliance on traditional developed economies [3] Group 5: Policy Support - A series of policies aimed at stabilizing foreign trade have been implemented, focusing on financial credit, tax refund facilitation, and cross-border e-commerce support [3] - Future policies will emphasize institutional openness and structural support to guide the transformation of foreign trade, including market access reforms and the promotion of cross-border e-commerce [3]

上海财经大学商学院讲席教授、中国式现代化研究院首席专家鲍晓华在接受上海证券报记者采访时表 示，前11个月我国外贸总体仍延续"稳中有进、结构优化"的态势。未来的外贸发展短期虽有压力，但从 中长期看，我国制造业体系完备、市场空间广阔，只要政策保持连续性、针对性，我国外贸完全有条件 保持在合理区间运行。 从出口结构看，高技术、高附加值产品出口增长亮点突出。前11个月，我国出口机电产品14.89万亿 元，同比增长8.8%，占出口比重超六成。其中，集成电路1.29万亿元，同比增长25.6%；汽车8969.1亿 元，同比增长17.6%。"这体现出我国产业链、供应链体系的综合竞争优势持续增强。"鲍晓华分析称， 相比之下，传统劳密产品出口有所回落，出口结构"由量向质"升级特征更加清晰。 从外贸主体看，民营企业占比持续提升。海关总署新闻发言人、统计分析司司长吕大良介绍，今年以 来，民营企业主动识变、灵活应变，外贸活力持续释放。前11个月，民营企业进出口23.52万亿元，同 比增长7.1%，占外贸总值的57.1%，比去年同期提升1.8个百分点，有进出口记录的民营企业数量同比增 加6.6万家。11月民营企业进出口增速比上月加快3. ...

Export Performance - In November 2025, total exports reached $330.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, exceeding market expectations of 3.0% and reversing the previous month's decline of -1.1%[1] - Exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America improved significantly, contributing 1.9 percentage points, 1.5 percentage points, and 1.0 percentage points to overall export growth, respectively[1] - Exports to ASEAN, China's largest trading partner, saw a marginal slowdown, with year-on-year growth decreasing by 1.9 percentage points to 8.6%, marking the first single-digit growth since February of the same year[1] Trade with the United States - Exports to the U.S. fell by 3.2% month-on-month in November, with a year-on-year decline of 28.8%, the lowest in three months, remaining within the -25% to -30% range[2] - The decline in exports to the U.S. was influenced by high base effects from last year, where exports peaked at $47.3 billion in November 2024 due to anticipatory stockpiling ahead of tariff increases[2] Product Categories - The export growth rate for electromechanical products and high-tech products improved, with electromechanical exports rising by 9.8% and high-tech products by 7.8%, both nearing the average levels seen in the first nine months of the year[3] - Labor-intensive product exports saw a reduced decline from -14.8% to -8.2%, although this remains low compared to the average decline of around 5% in August and September[3] Import Trends - Total imports in November amounted to $218.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, slightly above the previous month's 1.0%[4] - Imports of electromechanical and high-tech products improved, contributing 5.5 percentage points to overall import growth, while bulk commodity imports turned negative, declining by 1.0% year-on-year[5] Regional Economic Performance - Neighboring economies also showed strong export performance, with South Korea's exports rising by 8.4% year-on-year in November, up from 3.6% in October[6] - Vietnam's exports experienced a slight slowdown to 15.8% year-on-year but maintained double-digit growth[6] Future Outlook - Despite high base effects, November's export performance is expected to support a rebound in industrial value-added growth year-on-year[7] - The resilience of exports is anticipated to continue, bolstered by competitive pricing of manufactured goods, although fluctuations may occur in the coming months due to previous stockpiling effects[7]

记者丨张旭 编辑丨周上祺 东盟稳居第一大贸易伙伴 海关总署数据显示，我国前三大贸易伙伴分别为东盟、欧盟、美国。同期，我国对共建"一带一路"国家 合计进出口21.33万亿元，增长6%。 具体来看，今年前11个月，我国与东盟贸易总值6.82万亿元，增长8.5%，占我国外贸总值的16.6%；我 国与欧盟贸易总值5.37万亿元，增长5.4%，占我国外贸总值的13%；我国与美国贸易总值3.69万亿元， 下降16.9%，占我外贸总值的8.9%。 近年来，我国与东盟的贸易合作不断深化。中国与东盟自2002年开启自贸区建设进程，2010年自贸区 1.0版全面建成。自贸区建立后，双方对超过90%的产品实行零关税。中国对东盟平均关税从9.8%降到 0.1%，东盟六个老成员国对中国的平均关税从12.8%降到0.6%。 10月28日，中国-东盟自贸区3.0版升级议定书在马来西亚吉隆坡签署。3.0版升级议定书涵盖数字经济、 绿色经济、供应链互联互通等9方面内容。 广西壮族自治区东南亚经济与政治研究院信息中心主任丁裕森向21世纪经济报道记者表示，8.5%的增 速不仅表明东盟已成为我国外贸增长的核心引擎，更体现了国家外贸结构的深层次优化。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's goods trade showed resilience in November, with a total import and export value of 3.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.1% year-on-year, driven by strong exports to the EU and Belt and Road Initiative countries [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Data Overview - In the first eleven months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 41.21 trillion yuan, up 3.6% year-on-year, with exports at 24.46 trillion yuan (6.2% growth) and imports at 16.75 trillion yuan (0.2% growth) [1]. - In November alone, exports were 2.35 trillion yuan (5.7% growth) and imports were 1.55 trillion yuan (1.7% growth) [1]. Group 2: Trade Partners - ASEAN remains China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling 6.82 trillion yuan (8.5% growth), accounting for 16.6% of China's total foreign trade [3][5]. - Trade with the EU reached 5.37 trillion yuan (5.4% growth), making up 13% of total foreign trade, while trade with the US fell to 3.69 trillion yuan (16.9% decline), representing 8.9% of total foreign trade [3]. Group 3: Trade Structure and Product Categories - The trade structure is optimizing, with mechanical and electrical products dominating exports, totaling 14.89 trillion yuan (8.8% growth), making up 60.9% of total exports [7]. - Exports of labor-intensive products decreased to 3.7 trillion yuan (3.5% decline), now accounting for 15.1% of total exports [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Policy Measures - The outlook for foreign trade in 2026 indicates both opportunities and challenges, with expectations of controlled downward pressure on exports and stable employment in the foreign trade sector [10]. - Proposed measures to support foreign trade include enhancing domestic consumption, providing targeted financial support to export enterprises, and diversifying markets through new trade agreements [10][11].