评论 机构：中金公司 研究员：徐卓楠/王杰睿 公司近况 近期我们组织了公司调研，并与管理层就战略复盘及展望，新品类表现及出海进展等话题进行了深入沟 通。我们认为，公司25年通过大规模上新进行试错，26 年公司拟适度聚焦趋势品类，有望提升业绩达 成确定性，后续重点关注新品类及出海表现。 考虑到公司部分新品表现不及预期，下调25/26 年经调净利预测19%/17%至6.5/8.7 亿元，首次引入27 年 经调净利预测10.7 亿元，现价对应26/27 年18/15 倍经调P/E。维持跑赢行业评级，基于盈利预测调整及 市场风险偏好变化，下调目标价26%至100 港币，对应26/27 年26/20 倍经调P/E，较当前有40%上行空 间。 风险 竞争加剧，授权IP流失，新品不及预期。 1、26 年拟聚焦重点品类，有望提质增效。回顾25 年，公司围绕全人群、全价位、全球化战略探索业务 边界。其中，9.9 元下沉市场产品线表现较优，但部分品类如女性向产品表现未达内部目标，一定程度 分散资源并拖累利润表现。展望26 年，公司重心转向聚焦与确定性：产品端拟维稳上新节奏，提升单 品的成功率；财务端伴随团队架构趋于成熟，人员规模 ...

回答：公司主要从 IP 数字资产赋能、智能产品开发、内容创作降本增效三个核 心方向推进 AI 技术落地。 1、IP 数字资产赋能：将喜羊羊、超级飞侠等核心 IP 打造为交互式数字人，目 前正在对接大模型平台及 AI 智能硬件客户，逐步建立 AI 硬软件的交互式 IP 数据库。 2、智能产品开发：自 2025 年年初以来，公司已陆续推出喜羊羊、懒羊羊等毛 绒智能产品，未来将尝试开拓具备功能属性的产品品类，核心目标是抓住家庭智能 入口终端，构建家庭消费场景的智能产品矩阵。 证券代码：002292 证券简称：奥飞娱乐 奥飞娱乐股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2026-001 | | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □√现场调研 □其他 | | | 华安基金、博时基金、人保资产、众安保险、信达澳亚基金、恒越基金、华富基金、 | | 参与单位名称 | 银河基金、西部利得基金、上银基金、新华基金、招银理财、泰康基金、华泰资产、 | | | 永赢基金、神农投资、长江养老、国泰海通 ...

港股三大指数走势不一，恒指及恒科指数尾盘成功转涨。截止收盘，恒生指数涨0.17%或44.9点，报 26629.96点，全日成交额为2348.6亿港元；恒生国企指数跌0.09%，报9114.3点；恒生科技指数涨 0.28%，报5762.44点。 兴业证券认为，港股有望继续震荡向上。该行指出，岁末的资金阶段性收紧效应过去，内资继续流入； 如果海外形势带来扰动反而是机会。一旦特朗普"TACO"，反而可能通过弱美元与资金再配置，对港股 形成边际支撑。此外，政策和产业层面也存在催化。 蓝筹股表现 泡泡玛特(09992)领涨蓝筹。截至收盘，涨5.97%，报206港元，成交额44.44亿港元，贡献恒指13.8点。 今日下午新华社官方微博宣布，节目《扬声》将于本周五播出，由新华社记者张扬对话泡泡码特创办人 王宁。此外，泡泡玛特近期推出的"PUCKY敲敲系列"毛绒挂件盲盒，因内置电子木鱼功能成为热议焦 点。值得一提的是，泡泡玛特近日连续回购股份， 累计金额近3.5亿港元。 其他蓝筹股方面，九龙仓置业(01997)涨4.81%，报26.6港元，贡献恒指3.32点；理想汽车-W(02015)涨 4.13%，报65.55港元，贡献恒 ...

企业新闻 上海电气(02727.HK)：预计2025年净利润为人民币11.0亿元至人民币13.2亿元，同比增加约为47%至 76%。 1月22日，港股股指早盘高开低走，全天维持低位窄幅震荡走势，截止收盘，恒生指数涨0.17%报 26629.96点，恒生科技指数涨0.28%报5762.44点，国企指数跌0.09%报9114.3点，红筹指数涨0.48%报 4223.84点。 盘面上，大型科技股走势分化，阿里巴巴涨0.98%，腾讯控股跌0.83%，京东集团涨0.98%，小米集团跌 0.51%，网易涨0.48%，美团跌0.31%，快手涨0.38%，哔哩哔哩涨3.3%；消费概念股泡泡玛特涨近6%； 百度集团今日发布文心大模型5.0正式版收盘涨超4%；黄金股多数调整，珠峰黄金跌超4%，灵宝黄金、 招金矿业跌超3%；半导体概念股兆易创新跌超8%；军工股走强，中船防务涨超3%；互联网医疗跌幅居 前，京东健康跌超2%；龙旗科技上市首日涨超3%。 金蝶国际(00268.HK)：预计2025年总收入约人民币69.5-70.5亿元之间，同比增长约11.1%至12.7%；净利 润人民币6000万元至约1亿元之间。 公告称，主要得益于集 ...

Core Insights - The AI toy market in China is rapidly growing, with projections indicating a market size of 246 billion yuan in 2024 and an expected increase to 290 billion yuan in 2025, which is double the growth rate of traditional toys [3][8] - Major tech companies and IP giants are entering the AI toy sector, creating a multi-dimensional competitive landscape, while traditional toy manufacturers and startups are adapting by leveraging their strengths [3][8] - The emotional connection and understanding of user needs are becoming the core value propositions of AI toys, shifting the focus from mere functionality to companionship [11][12] Market Dynamics - The AI toy market is characterized by significant participation from internet giants and leading consumer electronics companies, indicating a shift towards AI toys as the next generation of human-computer interaction and family data gateways [8][9] - Sales data shows a booming market, with products like "显眼包" achieving over 1.2 billion yuan in GMV within 48 hours of launch, and AI toys integrated with JoyInside seeing a 20-fold increase in sales during the "双11" shopping festival compared to earlier periods [14][16] - The market is still in its early stages, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 14%-16% over the next decade, potentially exceeding 60 billion USD by 2034 [13][22] Competitive Landscape - The entry of major players has created a protective barrier in the AI toy market, compelling traditional manufacturers and startups to innovate and differentiate themselves [9][18] - Different companies are focusing on various aspects of the market: internet giants on data and AI capabilities, consumer electronics firms on supply chain management, and IP companies on emotional connections and content creation [18][21] - The competition is expected to evolve into a differentiation strategy rather than a price war, with companies focusing on unique emotional and technological offerings [21][22] Consumer Trends - The AI toy market caters to a wide range of age groups, with children aged 3-12 making up 62% of the market, while the Z generation (ages 18-35) shows a 45% repurchase rate driven by emotional needs [22] - The demand for AI toys is fueled by the increasing need for companionship among various demographics, including children, young adults, and the elderly [22][25] - The emotional value of AI toys is becoming a key selling point, with consumers seeking products that provide companionship rather than just functionality [12][22] Ethical and Safety Concerns - The rapid growth of the AI toy market raises concerns about data privacy, as these toys collect sensitive information from users, particularly children [23][27] - There are worries about the potential negative impact of AI toys on children's social skills and emotional development, as reliance on these products may hinder real-life interactions [25][27] - Industry experts emphasize the need for strict content filtering and data protection measures to ensure the safety and ethical use of AI toys [27][28]

该行成，布鲁可2025年下半年的复苏势头似乎较预期疲弱，由于公司产品推出步伐放缓及低价商品占比 上升，因此下调其销售与盈利预测，惟销量增长料将保持强劲。富瑞预期布鲁可旗下车辆玩具产品的进 一步发展将带动增量销售，料公司毛利率将于2026年下半年回升。随着公司采取更聚焦的招聘策略及签 约新IP，预料销售、一般及行政开支比率将温和改善。 富瑞发布研报称，将布鲁可(00325)2025至2027年的盈测分别下调14%、23%及26%，收入预测降14%、 18%及21%，目标价由128港元下调至97港元，维持"买入"评级。该行相信公司的销售动力持续改善， 且2022至2027年间的净利润复合年增长率达22%，估值吸引。 ...

港股晨报 港股回顾 点，跌幅随即扩大至 247 点，低见 23730 点，其后跌幅 一度收窄至仅 20 点，午后大盘走势偏软，尾盘沽压再 度扩大。截至收盘，恒指收报 23831 点，下跌 145 点或 0.61%；国指收报 9656 点，下跌 47 点或 0.49%，大市 成交进一步减至 827.99 亿。港股通录得净流入资金 4.84 亿，其中港股通(沪)净流入 2.83 亿，港股通(深)净 流入 2.01 亿。板块方面，本地地产、软件、5G 概念板 块跌幅靠前；黄金股逆市走强。 周二港股延续调整态势，恒生指数收盘跌 0.29% 报 26487.51 点，恒生科技指数跌 1.16%，恒生中 国企业指数跌 0.43%。科技股领跌，中芯国际、 舜宇光学科技跌超 3%，医药股持续低迷，恒瑞医 药、药明康德跌超 4%；地产股逆势走强。泡泡玛 特大涨 9%领涨蓝筹。大市全日成交额 2377.7 亿 港元。恒生指数成分股中 44 只上涨，41 只下 跌，其中药明康德跌 4.13%，比亚迪股份跌 3.67%，舜宇光学科技跌 3.25%。 美股市场 1. 美股周二复市后大跌，美国总统特朗普再加强威 胁以夺取格陵兰，并扬言向 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the Hong Kong stock market saw significant net buying from northbound capital, totaling HKD 36.63 billion, with Tencent, Meituan, and Xiaomi being the most purchased stocks [2][6] - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a net inflow of HKD 5.03 billion, with total buy and sell amounts of HKD 21.15 billion and HKD 16.12 billion respectively [3][5] - Meituan (03690) recorded a net inflow of HKD 3.19 billion, with total buy and sell amounts of HKD 5.98 billion and HKD 2.79 billion respectively [3][6] Group 2 - Semiconductor stocks showed divergence, with Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) receiving a net inflow of HKD 2.45 billion, while SMIC (00981) faced a net outflow of HKD 7.17 billion [7] - The report from Open Source Securities indicated that TSMC raised its capital expenditure forecast significantly, reflecting strong long-term demand driven by AI [7] - Long-distance fiber optic cable stocks like Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) saw a net inflow of HKD 1.54 billion, supported by rising prices in the G.652.D fiber market [7] Group 3 - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) received a net inflow of HKD 3.95 billion, while China Mobile (00941) faced a net outflow of HKD 6.37 billion [8] - The report from Bank of America noted that the growth in metal demand is no longer cyclical, as economies are restructuring their energy infrastructure [8] - The sentiment around resource competition is affecting copper prices, which may remain volatile in the short term [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net inflows from northbound trading, with a total net buy of HKD 36.63 billion on January 20, 2023, indicating strong investor interest in certain stocks [1]. Group 1: Net Buying and Selling Activities - Tencent (00700) received the highest net buy of HKD 21.15 billion, with a total trading volume of HKD 37.26 billion, reflecting a net inflow of HKD 5.03 billion [2]. - Meituan-W (03690) saw a net buy of HKD 16.69 billion, with a total trading volume of HKD 30.51 billion, resulting in a net inflow of HKD 2.87 billion [2]. - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a net buy of HKD 3.95 billion, contributing to the overall positive sentiment in the tech sector [7]. - Conversely, SMIC (00981) faced the largest net sell of HKD 9.73 billion, with a total trading volume of HKD 21.23 billion, indicating a net outflow of HKD 1.76 billion [2]. - China Mobile (00941) also experienced significant net selling, with a net outflow of HKD 6.37 billion [7]. Group 2: Sector Insights and Market Trends - The technology sector, particularly companies like Tencent, Meituan, and Alibaba, is seeing increased investment interest, driven by expectations of growth in AI and cloud computing [4]. - The semiconductor sector showed divergence, with Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) receiving a net buy of HKD 2.45 billion, while SMIC faced a net sell of HKD 7.17 billion, reflecting varying investor confidence [5]. - The optical fiber and cable industry is experiencing a price recovery, with Longi Optical Fiber (06869) receiving a net buy of HKD 1.54 billion, supported by rising market prices for G.652.D optical fibers [5]. - The mining sector, particularly Zijin Mining (02899) and Luoyang Molybdenum (03993), faced net selling pressures, attributed to changing market sentiments regarding metal demand and supply dynamics [6].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations today, with all three major indices closing lower. The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.29% or 76.39 points to 26,487.51 points, with a total turnover of HKD 2,377.66 million. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.43% to 9,094.76 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.16% to 5,683.44 points [1] Blue Chip Performance - Pop Mart (09992) led the blue-chip stocks, rising by 9.07% to HKD 197.2, contributing 19.52 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company announced a share buyback of 1.4 million shares for HKD 2.51 million at prices between HKD 177.7 and HKD 181.2. Morgan Stanley noted that this buyback could attract more investors [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances included China Life (601628) (02628) up 4.31% to HKD 33.4, contributing 16.6 points, and China Resources Land (01109) up 3.71% to HKD 29.64, contributing 5.52 points. Conversely, WuXi AppTec (603259) (02359) fell by 4.13% to HKD 113.7, detracting 3.73 points, and SMIC (00981) dropped by 3.25% to HKD 74.5, detracting 18.11 points [2] Sector Highlights - The technology sector showed mixed results, with Baidu rising by 0.95% while Tencent fell over 1%. Gold stocks rebounded, with spot gold surpassing USD 4,700 for the first time, and consumer stocks gained traction due to favorable consumption policies. Notably, Pop Mart's buyback led to a price increase of over 10% [3] - Gold stocks saw a recovery, with Zijin Mining International (02259) up 5.47% to HKD 179.4, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) (06693) up 3.6% to HKD 33.94, Shandong Gold Mining (600547) (01787) up 2.73% to HKD 43.7, and China National Gold International (600916) (02099) up 2.04% to HKD 195 [3] Real Estate Sector - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.3% month-on-month decline in new residential sales prices in first-tier cities for December 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the real estate sector has undergone deep adjustments, and recent central government directives to stabilize the market may lead to positive policy changes [5] - The real estate sector showed positive performance, with China Overseas Land & Investment (00081) up 4.93% to HKD 2.13, and China Resources Land (01109) up 3.71% to HKD 29.64 [4][5] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector performed well, with China Pacific Insurance (00966) up 4.39% to HKD 23.8, China Life (02628) up 4.31% to HKD 33.4, and New China Life Insurance (601336) (01336) up 2.72% to HKD 62.35. Reports indicated that major insurance companies saw significant growth in premium income through bancassurance channels [4][5] Aviation Sector - The aviation sector continued its upward trend, with China Southern Airlines (600029) (01055) up 4.57% to HKD 6.18, China National Aviation (601111) (00753) up 3.91% to HKD 7.45, and Cathay Pacific (00293) up 1.63% to HKD 12.49. Analysts expect strong demand during the upcoming Spring Festival travel season, with improved ticket pricing and revenue management driving profitability [6] Notable Stock Movements - Youjia Innovation (02431) saw a significant increase of 7.21% to HKD 15.77 after signing a memorandum of understanding with India's Sterling Tools Ltd. to focus on the automotive market [7] - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) reached a new high, rising 6.04% to HKD 71.95, as the company plans to initiate a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project with an estimated investment of USD 436.6 million [8] - GigaDevice Semiconductor (603986) (03986) continued to rise by 5.52% to HKD 306, benefiting from a tight supply of memory chips [9] - Shanghai Petrochemical (600688) (00338) issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of approximately RMB 1.289 billion to RMB 1.576 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025 [10]