银行大额存单利率步入"0字头"时代 国际金价屡创新高 回调风险需警惕 大额存单利率步入"0字头"时代，银行正通过"短期化、高门槛、低利率"的组合策略开启负债端深度调 整。2026年开年，超40家银行发布的首期产品显示，1年期以下利率普遍跌破1%，3年期多低于2%，5 年期近乎绝迹，而百万元起存门槛产品悄然浮现。业内专家指出，这一结构性变化是银行业在净息差持 续低于1.5%的严峻压力下，为配合实体经济融资成本下行、实现自身稳健经营的必然选择。展望全 年，专家普遍认为，在适度宽松货币环境与银行息差压力持续的双重作用下，大额存单利率低位运行将 成常态，这标志着居民资产配置逻辑与银行负债管理模式正经历深刻重构。（经济参考报） 中金公司：2025年ETF市场增长空间充足 规模增速或放缓 中金公司研报指出，2025年ETF市场多点开花，规模与结构更为优化。总结来看，我们认为ETF市场无 论在长期维度还是今年都有较充足的增长空间，在公募整体市场内的份额还将继续上升，但今年的规模 增速或将继续放缓。同时结合资金流向与投资者结构的信息，我们认为无论对于宽基、行业主题、还是 跨境产品而言，资管机构资金的重要性都有明显提升，基金管 ...

"十四五"时期，江苏社会融资规模稳居全国第一方阵，截至2025年末连续4年新增贷款全国第一， 科创板和北交所上市公司数量全国第一，融资担保在保余额全国第一……1月21日，省政府新闻办公室 举办"十四五"江苏金融发展成就新闻发布会，江苏亮出一份含"金"量十足的"成绩单"。 亮点纷呈，筑牢高质量发展根基 "十四五"时期，在加快建设金融强省道路上，江苏金融业高质量发展脉络清晰可见、层层深入，迈 出一个个坚实步伐。 金融高质量发展，体现在为实体经济发展提供坚实支撑和精准适配。2021—2024年，全省社融增量 年均达3.35万亿元；2025年1—11月，全省社融增量达3.09万亿元，位列全国第一，同比多增4461亿元。 截至2025年末，全省人民币贷款余额达28.25万亿元，2021—2025年年均增长12.8%，持续高于同期名义 GDP增速。 人民银行江苏省分行副行长、国家外汇管理局江苏省分局副局长戴俊介绍，"十四五"时期，江苏金 融系统聚焦"五篇大文章"，在服务国家重大战略和支持重点领域、薄弱环节方面取得显著成效。截至 2025年末，全省科技贷款余额达5.2万亿元，获贷企业数量超14.8万家；绿色贷款规模持续扩大 ...

近日，银行间市场交易商协会通报了2025年度银行间债券市场违规行为自律查处情况。 交易商协会表示，查处了多类新型违规行为，及时遏制破窗效应。首次查处金融债低价承销违 规，防范承销发行"内卷式"竞争；首次查处证券公司投资顾问安排债券代持、协助非市场化发行 债券等违规；首次惩戒评级公司违反独立性和一致性原则展业，推动评级行业回归客观中立本 位；首次对承销机构母子公司协同展业中存在的违规问题予以处理；首次对债券承销与贷款业务 未有效隔离的问题立案调查。 持续完善自律规则，推动业务规范与自律查处相互促进。承销发行环节发布3项专门通知，重点 规范发行定价扭曲、非市场化发行及低价承销等问题；交易环节强化全流程管控，修订债券交易 自律规则，制定交易信息保存细则，出台估值业务指引，发文规范投顾业务；存续期强化募集资 金管理及信息披露要求，发布专项通知，明晰募集资金管理责任边界，推进信息披露制度体系修 订。 交易商协会表示，下一步将在人民银行指导下，聚焦银行间债券市场突出问题和薄弱环节，继续 严惩危害市场平稳运行的各类违规行为，持续净化市场生态，助力银行间债券市场高质量发展。 此外，2024年交易商协会作出自律处分88家（人） ...

近日，银行间市场交易商协会通报了2025年度银行间债券市场违规行为自律查处情况。 持续强化对信息披露、募集资金的关注与违规查处力度，加强对城投企业的合规管理。针对平台企业挪用募集 资金、违规划转资产、贸易收入异常等问题，开展专项排查。全年累计对20家涉事机构实施自律处分，覆盖发 行企业、会计师事务所、增信机构、资金监管银行等各类主体。 持续完善自律规则，推动业务规范与自律查处相互促进。承销发行环节发布3项专门通知，重点规范发行定价 扭曲、非市场化发行及低价承销等问题；交易环节强化全流程管控，修订债券交易自律规则，制定交易信息保 存细则，出台估值业务指引，发文规范投顾业务；存续期强化募集资金管理及信息披露要求，发布专项通知， 明晰募集资金管理责任边界，推进信息披露制度体系修订。 交易商协会表示，下一步将在人民银行指导下，聚焦银行间债券市场突出问题和薄弱环节，继续严惩危害市场 平稳运行的各类违规行为，持续净化市场生态，助力银行间债券市场高质量发展。 此外，2024年交易商协会作出自律处分88家（人）次，涉及47家机构和41位责任人，对34家机构的轻微违规行 为予以自律管理措施。 责编：战术恒 排版：汪云鹏 校对： ...

贝森特还表示，在格陵兰岛受到关注前，日本国债市场就出现问题，美国总统特朗普宣布将对欧洲国家 加征关税对美国市场的影响有限。 环球网报道称，贝森特的言论引发日本媒体的不满。《朝日新闻》在题为"长期国债收益率上涨不赖格 陵兰岛问题赖日本？"的报道中指出，特朗普企图将格陵兰岛纳入美国领土导致的混乱被认为是美国长 期国债收益率上涨的主因。 据环球网援引《日本经济新闻》报道，对于美国因格陵兰岛问题向欧洲国家加征关税导致美国市场颓势 的说法，美国财政部长贝森特20日反驳说，美国国债收益率上涨是受日本波及，加征关税对市场的影响 有限。 贝森特 资料图 "我正在与日本经济部门负责人进行沟通。我相信日方会承诺稳定日本市场。"贝森特出席世界经济论坛 年会期间接受媒体采访时称，很难将美国市场的反应与日本发生的事分开来看。日本的国债收益率正在 暴涨。 （流程编辑：u028） 另一方面，据彭博社报道，日本财务大臣片山皋月20日表示，"已采取措施稳定市场，也保证措施会持 续保持。" 日本首相高市早苗上台后，她提出的扩张性财政政策引发市场担忧，市场认为这会带来更多财政赤字， 加剧日本政府的财政困境。近期日元加速贬值，同时，日本国债收益率大 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims reported at 198,000, significantly lower than the expected 215,000, leading to a delay in interest rate cuts from April to June [7][8] - The report forecasts a 30.2% increase in net corporate bond issuance for 2026, driven primarily by AI infrastructure capital expenditures and merger financing needs [7][8] - The report highlights that the U.S. Treasury yield curve has shifted upward, with the 10-year yield closing at 4.23%, reflecting market adjustments to employment data and interest rate expectations [9][10] Group 2 - The report notes that credit spreads have narrowed significantly, with high-yield bonds and investment-grade bonds both seeing a reduction of 8.8 basis points, indicating strong demand for credit assets [12][36] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on 3-7 year maturity bonds to balance yield and volatility, suggesting a shift towards investment-grade bonds and high-quality financial debt [42] - The report mentions that the offshore RMB bond market has seen a widening of the yield spread to 14.33 basis points, reflecting a potential tightening of liquidity and adjustments in pricing logic for long-term RMB assets [17][30]

Group 1 - The global financial market experienced severe shocks due to movements in the sovereign debt market, driven by U.S. President Trump's latest tariff comments and concerns over Japan's fiscal discipline following the announcement of early elections [1] - A clear shift in market logic occurred, moving from traditional "interest rate shock" narratives to "risk-off shock" driven by sovereign credit and policy uncertainties [1] - Key market indicators showed a comprehensive sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, with long-term yields rising sharply, and the yield curve steepening significantly [1] Group 2 - The Japanese government bond (JGB) market faced a "crash-level" sell-off, with the 30-year bond yield surging by 35 basis points and the 40-year yield nearing a 50 basis point increase, indicating a severe reassessment of Japan's fiscal outlook [2] - The auction results for 20-year bonds were weak, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 3.19 from 4.10, reflecting a depletion of market demand [2] - The USD/JPY exchange rate was trading around 157.80, showing slight declines and testing key support levels, with potential for further downward movement if critical support is breached [2] Group 3 - The short-term outlook for USD/JPY is heavily dependent on the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) response, particularly regarding its bond purchasing operations [3] - If the BoJ increases bond purchases to stabilize the market, it may temporarily alleviate selling pressure on JGBs but could also lead to a depreciation of the yen [3] - Conversely, if the BoJ shows tolerance towards rising yields, it may exacerbate the trust crisis in JGBs, prompting capital outflows and potentially strengthening the yen [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5%, and the full - year growth target of 5% was achieved, meeting market expectations. The market will discuss the economic growth expectations for 2026 and the Two Sessions' target settings. For the bond market, the central bank's attitude is the key factor in 2026, and a total interest - rate cut is expected in Q2 [27]. - The central bank's resumption of bond - buying may be a long - term consideration, and the continuity of bond - buying is high. In 2026, the imbalance between supply and demand in the bond market needs attention, with the core being demand. The bond market still needs to consider the impacts of "imbalance between supply and demand, expectations of rising prices, and re - balancing of asset allocation due to capital diversion" [28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In December 2025, GDP at constant prices had a quarterly - on - quarterly growth of 4.5%, lower than the previous quarter's 4.8% and the same period last year's 5.4% [1]. - The manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 50.1%, up from 49.8% in the previous month and the same as the same period last year [1]. - The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in December 2025 was 50.2%, up from 50.0% in the previous month but lower than 52.2% in the same period last year [1]. - The monthly value of social financing scale in December 2025 was 2207.5 billion yuan, down from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month and 2853.7 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - Various monetary indicators such as M0, M1, M2, and new RMB loans also showed different trends in December 2025 compared with the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - CPI in December 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 0.8%, up from - 0.3% in the previous month and 0.1% in the same period last year; PPI was - 1.9%, up from - 2.3% in the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment completion in December 2025 was - 3.8%, down from - 0.5% in the previous month and 3.2% in the same period last year [1]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 was 3.7%, down from 4.5% in the previous month but up from 3.5% in the same period last year [1]. - The year - on - year growth of export and import amounts in December 2025 was 6.60% and 5.70% respectively, down from 8.20% and 7.40% in the previous month and 10.67% and 0.84% in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The National Development and Reform Commission is planning major high - tech projects for the 15th Five - Year Plan period, formulating an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 - 2030, and considering setting up a national - level merger and acquisition fund. It will also promote the expansion and quality improvement of the service industry [2]. - The LPR in January 2026 remained unchanged for the 8th consecutive month, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% [2]. - Shanghai introduced 18 measures to enhance the influence of non - ferrous metal commodities and global pricing, including supporting settlement through the Commodity Clearing Link and opening up futures and options varieties [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratios and price limit ranges for copper, aluminum, gold, and silver futures contracts [3]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center adjusted the trading margin ratios and price limit ranges for international copper futures contracts [4]. - On January 20, 37 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 32 had negative basis, with significant differences in basis among different varieties [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - On the morning of January 21, New York gold futures exceeded $4780 per ounce, and domestic gold jewelry prices also increased, with some brands' pure gold prices exceeding 1450 yuan per gram [5]. - "Investment copper bars" have become popular recently, with a 1000 - gram copper bar costing 180 - 288 yuan in Shenzhen Shuibei Market [5]. - The Polish central bank approved a plan to buy up to 150 tons of gold, increasing its gold reserves to 700 tons [5]. - On January 19, the inventories of lead, tin, zinc, and copper in the London Metal Exchange reached new highs, while the inventories of cobalt and aluminum reached new lows [6]. - As of January 20, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 0.37%, or 4.01 tons, to 1081.66 tons [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, Shanxi produced 65 billion tons of coal, with an output of over 13 billion tons in 2025, an increase of 19 billion tons compared with the 13th Five - Year Plan [8]. - The first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore arrived in China on January 17, enhancing global iron ore supply [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 85 yuan per ton from January 20, 24:00, due to rising international oil prices [9]. - The US government obtained 50 million barrels of oil from Venezuela and sold part of it on the open market [9]. - Venezuela officially launched the export of liquefied petroleum gas [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Brazil's corn and soybean exports in January 2026 are expected to be 3.45 million tons and 3.79 million tons respectively, higher than the previous week's forecasts, while soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.82 million tons, the same as the previous week [10]. - As of January 15, the EU's soft wheat exports in the 2025/26 season were 11.8 million tons, slightly lower than the same period last year [10]. - The US export inspection volumes of soybeans, wheat, and corn were 1,336,684 tons, 392,611 tons, and 1,483,622 tons respectively [11]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 20, the central bank conducted 324 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan due to 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities [12]. 3.3.2 Key News - A package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal - financial coordination was introduced, including a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan for private investment and loan interest - subsidy policies for small and medium - sized enterprises [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission stated that in 2026, macro - policies will focus on strengthening the domestic cycle, expanding domestic demand, and promoting high - tech projects [13]. - The Ministry of Finance said that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, debt scale, and expenditure will remain at necessary levels, and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will continue to be issued [14]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development introduced measures to support urban renewal [15]. - The preferential tax policies for community - based family services such as elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping were extended from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [16]. - The latest LPR remained unchanged for the 8th consecutive month since May 2025, and experts believe that the stable macro - economy is the main reason [17]. - Beijing's 2026 construction land supply plan was announced, with specific land allocations for commercial and affordable housing and a focus on urban renewal [18]. - Guangzhou is promoting legislation for the renewal of state - owned land housing, with a planned fixed - asset investment of 120 billion yuan for urban village renovation in 2026 [18]. - The Greenland crisis and fiscal pressure concerns led to a global bond market sell - off, with significant fluctuations in Japanese and US bond yields [18]. - The Japanese Finance Minister tried to calm the bond market, emphasizing the responsibility and sustainability of fiscal policies [18]. - All Japanese central bank observers predict that the benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged on Friday, and the government may intervene in the foreign exchange market if the yen depreciates [19]. - There were several bond - related events, including payment due dates and corporate management changes [19]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market showed positive trends, with falling yields on spot bonds and rising prices of bond futures. The money market was generally stable, but the DR001 rate increased due to the tax period [20]. - The exchange - traded bond market had different performances among different bond types, with some bonds rising and some falling [21]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index both declined, with significant differences in individual bond performances [22]. - Most money market interest rates and Shibor short - term rates increased [22]. - Bank - to - bank repurchase fixed - rate and silver - bank repurchase fixed - rate also showed upward trends [23]. - The winning bid yields and multiples of financial bonds issued by the Agricultural Development Bank and the National Development and Reform Commission were announced [23][24]. - European and US bond yields generally increased [24][25]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 33 basis points to 6.9603 at 16:30, and the central parity rate rose 45 basis points to 7.0006 [26]. - At the New York close, the US dollar index fell 0.50% to 98.55, and most non - US currencies rose [26]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the central bank's attitude is crucial for the 2026 bond market, and a total interest - rate cut is expected in Q2 [27]. - Shenwan Hongyuan Fixed - Income believes that the central bank's bond - buying is likely to be continuous, and in 2026, attention should be paid to the imbalance between supply and demand in the bond market, with the interest rate level expected to be lower in the first half and higher in the second half [28]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - On Tuesday, the A - share market adjusted, with a style shift from high - valuation growth sectors to value sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01%, and the trading volume increased [30]. - The Hong Kong stock market continued to adjust, with technology stocks leading the decline and real - estate stocks rising. Southbound funds had a net purchase of nearly HK$3.7 billion [31]. - As of January 20, over 500 A - share companies had disclosed 2025 performance forecasts, with about 200 expecting growth and over 100 expecting a net profit increase of over 100%. However, some sectors such as photovoltaic, liquor, and pig farming faced performance pressure [31]. 3.5 Today's Reminders - On January 21, 230 bonds will be listed, 122 bonds will be issued, 82 bonds will be settled, and 207 bonds will pay principal and interest [29].

活动现场，省财政厅、省委金融办、省发展改革委、省科技厅、省工业和信息化厅、省生态环境 厅、省商务厅、人行江苏省分行、江苏金融监管局、江苏证监局等10个部门单位联合发布了制造业贷款 贴息、现代服务业贷款贴息、科技创新债券贴息、科技保险、"苏服贷"、"苏贸贷"、"环保贷"、"苏汇 保"等8项惠企政策，并重点结合国家最新出台的财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策和我省制造业贷款贴 息、现代服务业贷款贴息等重点政策要点，为参与活动的企业提供了一次专业辅导和详细解读。中国银 行江苏省分行等6家金融机构围绕省级惠企政策分别介绍各自的配套金融产品服务，华泰证券等专业机 构分别作了专业服务业务和优势介绍，4家企业代表从不同角度分享积极运用惠企政策、赋能企业发展 的实际案例。 1月20日，由省财政厅、省委金融办共同主办的"财政金融协同惠企"政策推介活动在南京举行，集 中发布并解读省级修订完善和新出台的财金协同惠企政策，组织金融机构、企业、服务机构等代表开展 面对面交流。省委常委、常务副省长马欣出席活动并讲话。 马欣指出，这次政策推介活动是贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署和省委、省政府工作要求，推动 财金高效协同的有力举措，相关部门要围绕 ...

如果你辛辛苦苦攒下的血汗钱，换成了别人家的一张借条，结果借钱的那家人现在正闹得不可开交，当家的被警察盯着，新来的还没进门就喊着要让旧当家 的一边凉快去，你心里发毛不发毛？ 咱们老百姓过日子，讲究个落袋为安，可放眼全球，那个曾经被大家伙儿当成"定海神针"的美国国债，现在似乎有点稳不住了。 说白了，以前大家觉得买美债就像是把钱存进了最稳妥的保险柜，可现在的形势是，这个保险柜的锁头似乎有点松动。 根据最新的数据，截至去年10月，咱们中国持有的美国国债已经降到了大约6887亿美元。 这是个什么概念呢？ 比起前一年，咱们整整缩减了10%的份额。 以前咱们可是美债的大主顾，现在这排名已经滑到了全球第三，连英国都排到咱们前面去了。 这事儿在金融圈子里可不是小动静，大家都开始琢磨，是不是该给自己留条后路了？ 其实，不光是咱们在撤，连美国那些所谓的"铁哥们"也在关键时刻动了心思。 就拿日本来说吧，2024年的4月到5月，日元跌得那叫一个惨，汇率直接破了160的大关。 日本政府一看，这哪行啊，再跌下去家里锅底都要漏了。 眼下，这可不是什么邻里纠纷的小插曲，而是发生在全球金融中心华盛顿的一场真实博弈。 明眼人都能看出来，这背后的政 ...