证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2026 年 2 月 11 日 融资资金加速流出，资金面边际好转 ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（0211） 3. 《春节前后资金流入的特征如 何？——金融市场流动性与监管 动态周报（0203）》 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 100.78↓ | | ETF 净申购 | -60.80↑ | | 融资净买入 | -515.96↓ | | 资金需求 | | | 限售解禁 | 1019.81↑ | | IPO 融资 | 13.99↓ | | 净减持金额 | 66.58↓ | | 计划减持金额 | 128.75↓ | | 活跃度 | | | A 股周度日均成交额 | 24066.54↓ | | 二级市场可跟踪资金供需持续净流出 | | 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 田登位 S1090524080002 tiandengw ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy in early 2026 shows a complex situation. The GDP growth rate slows down, and the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs fluctuate. The consumer price index and producer price index have different trends, and the investment and consumption data also show certain changes. In the commodity market, there are adjustments in futures contract rules and price fluctuations in various commodities. The financial market has changes in monetary policy, bond market, and exchange rate market, and the stock market shows different trends in A - shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][38][39]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 was 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1]. - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI: business activity was 49.4%, down from 50.1% in the previous month [1]. - In December 2025, social financing scale was 2207.5 billion yuan, down from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month and 2853.7 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - CPI in December 2025 was 0.8% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month, and PPI was - 1.9% year - on - year, up from - 2.3% in the previous month [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the daily price limit and trading margin levels of various futures contracts from February 12, 2026 [2]. - Bank of China adjusted the margin ratios of gold and silver deferred contracts from February 11 [2]. - On February 10, 41 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 27 had negative basis [3]. - The China Futures Association drafted a management rule for stress testing of futures companies' trading and settlement systems and solicited public opinions [3]. - Heraeus Limited was approved as an overseas standard gold ingot provider by the Shanghai Gold Exchange and can trade and deliver since February 5, 2026 [4]. - Fed officials Logan and Hamark said the Fed's policy stance was close to neutral and there might be no need for further rate cuts if inflation fell and the labor market remained stable [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - On February 11, spot gold reached $5050, up 0.53% for the day, and spot silver reached $81 per ounce, up 0.81% for the day [5]. - Chow Tai Fook may adjust the price of gold products in mid - March, with an expected increase of 15% - 30% for fixed - price products [5]. - The price of indium has reached a more than ten - year high, up more than 55% since last September [5]. - In December, Codelco's copper production increased by 3.7% year - on - year to 181,400 tons, while the copper production of Collahuasi Mine decreased by 12.1% year - on - year to 36,200 tons [6]. - As of February 10, 2026, the holdings of SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 0.34 tons to 1079.32 tons [6]. - On February 9, tin and copper inventories reached new highs, while aluminum, zinc, and lead inventories decreased [6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The White House will hold a coal - related event on Wednesday [8]. - The US Trade Representative is conducting negotiations on key minerals, including with Mexico and India, and expects to finalize an agreement with Indonesia in the next few weeks. Japan and the US will discuss a project supported by a $550 - billion investment tool [8][9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Zhoushan was approved to carry out the mixed - export business of marine bio - fuel oil [9]. - The US Energy Information Administration predicted that US natural gas production would reach a record high in 2026, while demand would remain stable. It also provided forecasts for oil demand and prices [9][10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Beef prices showed a slight upward trend as the Spring Festival approached. Egg prices declined due to sufficient supply and weakening demand [11]. - The US Department of Agriculture's February forecast for US soybean production, ending stocks, and yield in the 2025/2026 season remained unchanged from January [12]. - Bangladesh will purchase soybeans, wheat, cotton, and corn. Brazil's February exports of soybean meal and soybeans are expected to increase [13]. - The India Cotton Association expects the cotton supply in the 2025 - 26 season to be 42.8 million bales [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On February 10, the central bank conducted 311.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 205.9 billion yuan [15]. - On February 10, the Ministry of Finance and the central bank conducted a 150 - billion - yuan central treasury cash management commercial bank time - deposit auction, with an interest rate of 1.73% [15]. 3.3.2 Important News and Information - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use policy tools flexibly, and normalize treasury bond trading operations [16]. - The 21st session of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held from February 25 - 26, with multiple draft laws to be reviewed [17]. - The market regulatory authority approved a batch of important national standards in various fields [17]. - Five ministries jointly issued a guide for the construction of the science and technology service industry standard system [18]. - In January 2026, investment in digital economy - related fields was active, and consumption increased [18]. - Fiscal expenditure is shifting from infrastructure to "new - quality productivity" [19]. - The focus of the real estate market in 2026 is to stabilize the market, reduce inventory, strengthen housing security, and promote urban renewal [20]. - In 2025, the national social logistics volume increased by 5.1% year - on - year, with significant growth in the logistics volume of industrial robots and new - energy vehicles [20]. - Local debt resolution is in a critical stage, and some areas have completed debt - clearing tasks [20]. - Some real - estate enterprises have new financing activities, but the financing environment has only "point - like improvement" [21]. - Banks have issued a large number of large - denomination certificates of deposit, with a short - term trend and differentiated product strategies [21]. - The wealth management scale of large - scale wealth management companies declined in January 2026, but there are positive expectations for the future [22][23]. - Small and medium - sized banks have raised deposit interest rates at the beginning of the year [23]. - Tianjin's first batch of ESG - standardized bonds for financial leasing were issued [23]. - Alphabet issued a 750 - million - pound 100 - year bond, with over 7 - fold over - subscription [24]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March is 21.6%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 78.4% [24]. - Japan's national debt reached a record high at the end of 2025 [25]. - Ray Dalio warned that the US is in the "fifth stage" of the imperial cycle and recommended holding 5% - 15% of gold in the investment portfolio [26]. - There were various bond - related events, including credit rating adjustments and disciplinary actions [27]. - Overseas credit rating agencies adjusted the credit ratings of some Chinese real - estate enterprises [28]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market showed narrow fluctuations, with government bonds performing better than policy - financial bonds. The money market interest rates mostly increased [29][31]. - The exchange - traded bond market had active trading, with some bonds rising and some falling. The convertible bond index declined [29][30]. - The yields of European and US government bonds declined [33]. 3.3.4 Exchange Rate Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 155 points to 6.9129 at the close on February 11. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised by 65 points [34]. - The US dollar index rose slightly, and most non - US currencies fell [34]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the liquidity of urban investment bonds will continue to differentiate, and 3 - 5 - year urban investment bonds have high cost - performance [35]. - CITIC Securities points out that the consumption during the Spring Festival and the policy from local two sessions are the focuses in Q1, and the industrial destocking speed after March and the implementation of new industrial policies are crucial for the annual economic recovery [35]. - Xingzheng Fixed - Income suggests that investors focus on the coupon strategy for Chinese - funded US - dollar bonds in 2026 and pay attention to the yields of offshore urban investment dim - sum bonds and bonds of banks and financial services sectors [36]. - Yangtze River Fixed - Income believes that the spread changes of local bonds are affected by market trading and policies, and there are differences in liquidity and trading preferences among different provinces [36]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminder - On February 11, 280 bonds were listed, 74 bonds were issued, 75 bonds were due for payment, and 89 bonds were due for principal and interest repayment [37]. 3.4 Stock Market News - On February 11, the A - share market showed narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index falling 0.37%. AI application stocks and some concept stocks were active, while photovoltaic and consumer stocks were weak [38]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.58%, and AI application stocks and innovative drug concept stocks rose. Southbound funds had a small net purchase, and Tencent Holdings was sold [39]. - Foreign institutions are optimistic about Chinese assets, believing that China has a complete industrial chain, strong innovation ability, and attractive valuations [39].

Group 1: Insurance and Investment - Insurance capital is increasingly participating in private equity funds, with companies like Tianjin Lanqin Equity Investment Partnership being established and major insurers like Taikang Life involved as partners [1] - Since 2026, leading insurers such as China Life and Xinhua Insurance have launched new projects in private equity, driven by a policy environment encouraging long-term investments [1] - The need for asset-liability matching in a low-interest-rate environment is pushing insurers to seek private equity investments to enhance long-term returns [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - Over 60% of private equity firms plan to heavily invest in A-shares as the Spring Festival approaches, with an average estimated position of 75.68% during the holiday [2] - Public funds are increasingly accumulating positions in the consumer sector, with notable fund managers investing significantly in leading pet companies, indicating a rebound in consumer stocks [3] Group 3: Bond Market Developments - The yield on 10-year government bonds has fallen below 1.8%, indicating a return of the bond market's safe-haven attributes amid improved liquidity and insurance capital allocation [4] - The bond market is experiencing a structural recovery, with differing opinions on the potential for further interest rate declines [4] Group 4: Private Equity Growth - The number of private equity firms managing over 10 billion yuan has reached a record high of 122, with 10 new firms entering this category since December 2025 [5] Group 5: Monetary Policy and Financing - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to maintain liquidity and favorable financing conditions [6] Group 6: Corporate Financing and Regulations - New refinancing regulations have been introduced to support quality listed companies and enhance the flexibility of financing for technology innovation enterprises [7] - Many listed companies are actively exploring refinancing opportunities to strengthen their core competitiveness [7] Group 7: Local Government Debt Management - Local governments are making significant progress in clearing hidden debts, with at least 34 cities reporting advancements in their debt clearance tasks since 2026 [8] Group 8: IPO Market Improvements - The quality of IPO applications in the A-share market has improved significantly, with stricter regulations leading to better compliance and transparency among applicants [9] Group 9: Robotics Industry Developments - The humanoid robotics sector is accelerating its capital market activities, with several companies initiating IPO processes as the industry transitions from technology validation to commercialization [10] Group 10: Housing Market Policies - Various cities, including Chongqing, are implementing policies to stimulate housing consumption, such as providing subsidies and enhancing loan support for homebuyers [11] Group 11: Telecommunications Infrastructure - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set a timeline for enhancing low-altitude communication networks, with major telecom companies actively preparing for this development [12][13]

// 债市综述 // 1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称， 2 月 10 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 3114 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 3114 亿元，中标量 3114 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 1055 亿元逆回购到期，据此 计算，单日净投放 2059 亿元。 银行间市场资金面整体偏紧， DR001 加权平均利率上行超 9bp 至 1.36% 上方。匿名点击（ X-repo ）系 统上，隔夜报价在 1.35% 供给一般。非银机构以信用债为抵押融入隔夜以及跨节资金，报价分别升至 1.6% 及 1.65% 上方。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 3.64% 。 （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.59% 附近，较上日小幅上行。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投债（AAA）各期限利差走 ...

2026年2月10日，农历腊月二十三，北方小年的烟火气里，黄金市场正酝酿一场重大变局。 国际金价重新站上 5000美元/盎司心理关口，国内品牌金店足金999价格维持在1556-1560元/克的高位。 更关键的是，市场普遍预期 明后两天金价将打破当前震荡格局，迎来方向性选择。 这一预期源于近期金价的剧烈波动。 1月29日，伦敦金现价格刚创下5598.75美元/盎司的历史新高，随后便遭 遇"闪崩"，三个交易日内暴跌超过1100美元，跌幅超21%。 然而，市场很快又出现反弹，截至2月9日，金价重新 回到5000美元上方。 这种过山车般的行情让投资者既兴奋又紧张。 黄金市场的多空博弈从未如此激烈。 在5000美元这个关键位置，买卖双方展开激烈争夺。 一方面，前期暴涨积累 了大量的获利盘，短期了结压力较大；另一方面，全球央行持续购金、地缘政治风险等长期支撑因素依然坚实。 市场参与者需要密切关注这些因素的微妙变化。 银行机构已经率先行动，释放出审慎信号。 建设银行、招商银行等多家机构自2月初起纷纷上调黄金积存业务门 槛，同时强化风险测评要求。 工商银行更是将积存金业务风险准入等级上调至C3（平衡型）及以上。 这些措施 反 ...

Group 1 - The announcement is regarding the convening of a communication-based meeting for the holders of the Guangfa National Grain Industry Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) [1][2] - The fund was approved for registration on January 12, 2024, and officially commenced operations on August 8, 2024 [2] - The meeting aims to discuss the proposal for the continuous operation of the fund [4][31] Group 2 - The voting period for the meeting is set from February 11, 2026, to March 10, 2026, at 15:00 [2][5] - Holders must submit their votes and required documents to the designated recipient during the voting period [3][9] - The meeting will be conducted via communication methods, allowing for both paper and telephone voting [6][10] Group 3 - The rights registration date for participants in the meeting is February 10, 2026 [5] - Each fund share represents one vote in the meeting [23] - The proposal requires approval from holders representing at least half of the total fund shares to be valid [26] Group 4 - If the meeting does not meet the required quorum, a second meeting may be convened [27][28] - The fund management company is responsible for the organization and execution of the meeting [29] - The announcement includes details about the voting process and the necessary documentation for participation [20][21]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 一、召开会议基本情况 根据《中华人民共和国证券投资基金法》《公开募集证券投资基金运作管理办法》和《申万菱信安泰广 利63个月定期开放债券型证券投资基金基金合同》(以下简称"《基金合同》")的有关规定，申万菱信安 泰广利63个月定期开放债券型证券投资基金（以下简称"本基金"）的基金管理人申万菱信基金管理有限 公司（以下简称"基金管理人"）决定以通讯方式召开本基金的基金份额持有人大会，审议《关于申万菱 信安泰广利63个月定期开放债券型证券投资基金调整基金收益分配原则、删除投资组合限制等条款并修 订基金合同、托管协议的议案》。会议具体安排如下： 1、会议召开方式：通讯方式 2、会议投票表决起止时间：自2026年2月14日起，至2026年3月16日17:00止（纸质表决票以基金管理人 收到表决票的时间为准，电话表决以基金管理人电话录音系统记录时间为准，网络表决以基金管理人系 统记录时间为准） 3、会议纸质表决票的寄达地点： 收件机构：申万菱信基金管理有限公司 战略与产品部 收件人：杨思奇 收件地址： 上海市中山南路100号金外滩国际广场11层 联系电话：021-232 ...

Core Insights - The Xinjiang Listed Companies Association held a successful meeting to enhance communication between listed companies and financial institutions, aiming to facilitate precise matching of funding supply and demand [1][2] Group 1: Meeting Overview - The meeting was guided by the Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau and attended by over 120 participants, including executives from 50 listed companies and representatives from 10 financial institutions [1] - The meeting emphasized the importance of deepening core business, improving financing channels, maintaining compliance, and enhancing technological innovation [1] Group 2: Financial Institutions' Contributions - Financial experts from various institutions provided insights on macroeconomic trends and policy directions, offering practical strategies for listed companies to leverage capital tools for development [2] - Seven financial institutions presented tailored financing services and credit products to address the specific needs of listed companies, aiming to optimize their financing structures [2] Group 3: Future Initiatives - The Xinjiang Listed Companies Association plans to regularly conduct effective communication activities focused on the actual needs of listed companies, enhancing collaboration between capital markets and financial services to boost economic development in Xinjiang [2]

2月 10 日，江苏省政府办公厅召开《关于进一步优化民营经济金融服务的若干措施》的新闻发布会。记 者从会上获悉，《若干措施》共20条，聚焦民营企业金融服务中的难点堵点、迫切需求、核心关切，重 点围绕五个方面破题解题，力求提供充裕多元、优质高效、价格合理、安全稳健的金融服务。值得一提 的是，2025年全省新增A股首发上市29家，全部为民营企业，充分彰显江苏省民营经济的活力和利用资 本市场发展壮大的意愿。 校对 王菲 聚焦激发金融服务动力。当前，金融机构对民营小微企业不敢贷、不愿贷现象仍然一定程度存在。对 此，《若干措施》从两方面强化引导。一方面，用好考核评价"指挥棒"，建立完善"敢贷愿贷能贷会 贷"长效机制。优化银行机构服务实体经济效能评价机制，增加民营企业融资指标特别是普惠贷款、中 长期流动资金贷款等业务权重；优化政府性融资担保机构评价指标，降低或取消盈利要求，重点考核小 微、"三农"业务情况；引导金融机构优化尽职免责标准指引、落实小微企业不良贷款容忍度等要求。另 一方面，用好财政政策"撬动杆"，推出扩大省普惠金融发展风险补偿基金覆盖面等一系列有含金量的惠 企政策。 聚焦净化金融市场环境。对处理金融矛盾纠纷， ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan is entering a "gambling" era under Prime Minister Kishi, with significant changes in economic and defense policies anticipated, including a proposed suspension of the 8% food consumption tax to alleviate inflation pressures on households [2][3]. Economic Policy - Kishi's administration is expected to implement aggressive fiscal policies, potentially leading to increased national debt and a depreciation of the yen, raising concerns about Japan's economic strength [5][7]. - The International Monetary Fund indicates Japan has the highest debt levels globally, with projections showing the debt-to-GDP ratio nearing 230% by 2025, alongside a core CPI increase of 3.1% [7]. - Analysts express skepticism regarding Kishi's consumption tax cuts, citing significant doubts about funding sources and fiscal balance, which could exacerbate concerns over government bond issuance [7][8]. Market Reactions - The Japanese stock market has seen a surge, attributed to the influx of funds driven by Kishi's fiscal policies, but there are warnings that a disconnect between stock market performance and real economic growth could lead to a market correction [5][10]. - Concerns are raised about the potential for a "triple decline" in the yen, bond prices, and stock markets if Kishi's expansionary fiscal policies are not managed carefully [8]. Investor Sentiment - There is a notable lack of confidence among domestic investors regarding a significant return of capital from overseas, despite traditional expectations that rising interest rates would attract funds back to Japan [10]. - Foreign investors have become a crucial source of demand for Japanese bonds, particularly in the ultra-long segment, indicating a complex relationship between domestic fiscal policy and international investment dynamics [10].