今日内容 周四国际金价震荡收跌，开盘报3347.41美元/盎司，最高上行至3352.25美元/盎司，最低下探至3309.57 美元/盎司，最终报收于3338.85美元/盎司。 周四在岸人民币对美元收盘报7.1796，较上一交易日下跌20个基点。人民币对美元中间价报7.1461，较 上一交易日调升65个基点。美元指数涨0.36%报98.6419。 央行周四开展4505亿元7天逆回购操作，当日有900亿元7天逆回购到期，因此单日净投放3605亿元。 经济数据方面，美国6月零售销售环比增长0.6%，高于市场预期的0.1%，前值为下降0.9%。美国零售销 售月率的由负转正说明作为美国经济重要支柱的消费仍较为强劲。美国上周初请失业金人数减少7000人 至22.1万人，连续第五周下降，降至4月中旬以来的最低水平，显示就业市场具有韧性。零售销售数据 公布后，国际金价快速下跌，一度跌破3310美元关口，最终收复部分跌幅。宏观事件方面，近期，多位 美国大型金融机构高管，表示了对美联储独立性的关注，认为若美联储的决策受到政治干预，将对全球 资本市场造成严重扰动。 风险提示：近期国际金价波动较大，市场不确定性较高，请投资者注意风险 ...

一、地缘博弈与政策博弈下的市场震荡 2025 年 6 月贵金属市场呈现剧烈震荡格局，伦敦金现价在月初触及 3433 美元 / 盎司高点后回落至 3388 美元区间，沪银主力合约同步下探。这一 波动背后，美联储降息预期分化与地缘政治风险交织：尽管市场普遍预期 6 月降息概率达 58.7%，但核心通胀率顽固维持在 3.8%，导致黄金在 3350-3400 美元区间反复拉锯。与此同时，中东局势持续紧张，伊以冲突与加沙停火谈判僵局推动黄金 ETF 持仓量环比激增 12%，凸显避险需求 韧性。行业分析机构 BMO 资本市场预测，第四季度金价有望冲击每盎司 3600 美元，铂金则因供应赤字问题成为焦点，预计年底前将涨至 1500 美元 / 盎司。 由于美元走强，交易员消化了美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将7月9日关税截止日期延长至8月1日并声称美国接近达成几项贸易协议，金价周一回落至一 周低点。 现货黄金在格林威治标准时间 1302 点下跌 0.8% 至每盎司 3,307.87 美元，此前触及 6 月 30 日以来的最低水平 3,296.09 美元。美国黄金期货下跌 0.7% 至 3,318 美元。 二、高波动背后的行业痛点 当 ...

Core Views - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on gold, copper, and aluminum, emphasizing the importance of strategic metals [1][3] - In H1 2025, domestic economic indicators show signs of bottoming out, with improvements in real estate construction and a gradual shift towards new economic drivers [4][8] - The global economic landscape is being reshaped by fluctuating interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and the impacts of trade wars, leading to significant changes in resource sectors [4][8] Investment Strategies - **Main Line 1: Expansion on the Denominator Side - Gold and Silver**: Focus on gold and silver, with specific attention to the performance of gold stocks and the potential for silver due to its high price ratio to gold [4][5] - **Main Line 2: Improvement on the Numerator Side - Aluminum, Copper, Tin**: Anticipate continued high profitability in aluminum due to falling costs, while remaining cautious of potential short-term demand weakness [4][7] - **Main Line 3: Key Strategic Metals**: Highlighting opportunities in rare earths and other strategic metals amid US-China tensions, particularly in six key strategic metals [4][7] - **Main Line 4: Supply-Side Disruptions from Anti-Competition**: The report suggests that supply-side constraints in sectors like lithium carbonate may present attractive bottom-fishing opportunities [4][7] Market Performance - The CRB metal spot index increased by 7.08% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, indicating a general upward trend in metal prices [9][10] - Gold prices surged by 23.93% during the same period, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [12][14] - Industrial metals, particularly tin and copper, saw significant price increases of 19.91% and 15.59% respectively, while zinc prices fell by 5.55% [16][19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper inventories saw a significant reduction, with LME copper stocks decreasing by 66.17% by June 30, 2025 [21][69] - The report anticipates limited growth in global copper supply due to insufficient capital expenditure in mining, projecting only a 2.3% increase in global copper production in 2025 [62][64] - The refined copper market is expected to remain slightly short, with a projected demand growth of 7.1% for 2025, supporting a high price center for copper [69] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 19.17% from January to June 2025, compared to a 5.6% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [38][40] - Sub-sectors such as tungsten, gold, and rare earths performed particularly well, with respective increases of 39.64%, 33.57%, and 31.88% [42][44] - Companies closely tied to resource price fluctuations, particularly in gold and rare earths, showed strong performance, while midstream processing companies faced challenges due to weak downstream demand [44]

| 川以平均价 | 0 | 以父重 | | 加权平均价 | 771.34 | 成父重 | 399.06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 成交金额 | | 市场持仓 | | 成交金额 | 307812781.4 | 市场持仓 | | | 交收方向 | | 交收量 | | 交收方向 | | 交收量 | | | Au(T+D) | | | | Au(T+N1) | | | | | 开盘价 | 770.20 | 最高价 | 773.50 | 开盘价 | = | 最高价 | | | 最低价 | 767.30 | 收盘价 | 773.37 | 最低价 | | 收盘价 | | | 涨跌(元) | 1 0.71 | 涨跌幅 | 1 0.09% | 涨跌(元) | | 涨跌幅 | = 0 | | 加权平均价 | 771.41 | 成父童 | 24176 | 加权平均价 | 0 | 成交量 | 342 | | 成交金额 | 18649690380 | 市场持仓 | 204452 | 成交金额 | | 市场持仓 | | | 交收方向 | 多支付给空 | 交 ...

上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 7月18日（周五）收盘上涨0.11%报773.48元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 7月18日（周五）收盘上涨1.04%报9210.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The platinum market faces a structural shortage, with supply contraction in South Africa, stable demand from automotive exhaust catalysts, and incremental demand from the hydrogen energy industry and jewelry sector. The global platinum market's core contradiction lies in the high dependence on South Africa for supply (accounting for over 70% of production in 2024), but reduced capital expenditure and low recycling have led to a continuous supply contraction (CAGR of -1% from 2015 - 2025). On the demand side, automotive exhaust catalysts (accounting for 43% in 2024) provide a rigid foundation, and the rapid growth of plug - in hybrid vehicles still requires PGM catalysts. The hydrogen energy industry and gold substitution (high gold prices driving platinum jewelry consumption) offer elastic growth [3]. - The influx of risk - averse funds and continuous supply disruptions have led to a continuous increase in platinum prices. Geopolitical conflicts have strengthened the financial attribute of platinum, attracting risk - averse funds. Supply disruptions have also played a catalytic role. In Q1 2025, platinum mine supply decreased by 13% year - on - year (-117,000 ounces) due to factors such as heavy rainfall and floods in South African mining areas, low smelting capacity utilization in South Africa and Zimbabwe, and mine restructuring in North America. The high gold - platinum ratio in history indicates an undervaluation of platinum's value, which may attract value investment. However, the recent continuous rise in platinum prices still depends on market consensus. If the consensus is strengthened, the value center has room for continuous upward movement, and platinum's value fluctuations largely depend on market sentiment [3]. - Investment advice: On the supply side, short - term production cuts in South Africa cause supply fluctuations, and inventory is currently at a low level. In the long - term, low capital expenditure leads to supply contraction, and high supply concentration poses certain risks. On the demand side, traditional industrial demand is relatively stable, and the rapid growth of plug - in hybrid vehicles still requires PGM catalysts. High gold prices promote platinum substitution in the jewelry field. It is recommended to focus on the "resources + technology" line and pay attention to relevant companies [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Platinum Metal Properties and Industrial Chain Structure - Platinum group metals include platinum, palladium, rhodium, etc., with high melting points, high strength, excellent thermoelectric stability, high - temperature oxidation resistance, and corrosion resistance. Platinum and palladium have strong gas adsorption capacity and excellent catalytic properties, and are widely used in automotive exhaust catalysts, jewelry, electronic components, and chemical catalysts [8]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Contradictions Are Prominent, and Structural Shortage Intensifies Supply - Platinum ore supply is relatively concentrated, with South Africa accounting for about 70% of production. In 2024, global platinum ore production was 170 tons, with South Africa producing 120 tons, accounting for 70.6% of the global total. In terms of reserves, South Africa accounted for 88.73% of the global platinum - group metal reserves in 2023. Due to reduced capital expenditure in platinum ore projects and low recycling enthusiasm in the past decade, the total platinum supply is expected to fall below 7 million ounces in 2025, with a CAGR of -1% from 2015 - 2025 [13]. Demand - Platinum has obvious industrial attributes, and automotive exhaust purification demand accounts for about 40%. In 2024, the demand for platinum in automotive exhaust purification accounted for 43%. The hydrogen energy industry may become a future trend, and the growth of hybrid vehicle demand will also bring benefits. Although the demand for platinum in the automotive field is expected to remain high in the long - term, economic prospects are still uncertain [19]. - Jewelry demand has a small base but considerable elastic space. High gold prices have affected gold jewelry demand, and platinum jewelry is expected to fill the gap. The gold - platinum ratio exceeded 3 in February 2025 and回调 to about 2.46 as of July 1. According to WPIC, the year - end inventory is expected to drop sharply, leading to a tightening of market supply, and platinum may become a hedging product [24]. 3.3 Influx of Risk - Averse Funds + Continuous Supply Disruptions, Platinum Prices Rise Continuously - Platinum prices have shown a strong upward trend recently, with an increase of about 34% in the past two months, reaching a high level in the past 10 years. Future price trends still need to pay attention to the impact of economic data on precious metal prices [28]. - Supply disruptions and the gold substitution effect have led to the recent rise in platinum prices. On the supply side, South Africa, which supplies about 70% of platinum production, has been affected by bad weather, restricting mining and refining operations, and recycling metal supply is also at a low level. On the demand side, in addition to the basic demand for platinum as an automotive exhaust catalyst, the substitution effect of platinum jewelry for gold jewelry is obvious, and investment demand and the hedging attribute of platinum have attracted investors. The hydrogen energy concept also gives platinum a certain bullish attribute [31]. - The gold - platinum ratio is at a historical high, and the future price center still depends on market consensus. Gold and platinum prices diverged about a decade ago, with gold's financial attribute becoming prominent while platinum focused on industrial attributes. Around 2013, platinum prices recovered due to supply contraction, increased industrial and investment demand, and a shift in market sentiment. Currently, the gold - platinum ratio is at a historical high, and platinum is undervalued. Whether it can attract value investment depends on market consensus, and platinum's value fluctuations largely depend on market sentiment [38]. 3.4 Core Targets: Guiyan Platinum Industry, Haotong Technology, Huayang New Materials Guiyan Platinum Industry - The company focuses on the manufacturing of precious metal new materials and has established a complete industrial chain system. It has built a precious metal resource recycling industry, carried out full - life - cycle management of precious metals, and established a precious metal supply service platform. It has formed a closed - loop industrial chain from precious metal supply, product processing to waste recycling [48]. - The company has strong R & D capabilities and independent innovation. Relying on the research and development foundation of the State Key Laboratory of New Technologies for Comprehensive Utilization of Rare and Precious Metals and the Kunming Institute of Precious Metals, it has continuously made breakthroughs in high - end materials such as precious metal precursor materials, catalytic materials, and electronic pastes. In 2024, the production of precious metal precursor products increased by more than 20% year - on - year, and the profit of precious metal electronic pastes increased by more than 30% year - on - year [48]. Haotong Technology - The company's three major business segments develop synergistically, and its full - chain service has created core competitiveness. It focuses on the precious metal recycling field, and its business includes precious metal recycling, new materials mainly composed of precious metals, and trade. It has formed a closed - loop from raw material supply to new material manufacturing and recycling, meeting customers' cyclical needs [51]. - The company has leading core technologies. Its independently developed platinum dissolution solution enrichment technology and other technologies are at the international leading level, and its sponge platinum products have a high reputation in the industry. It has advantages in environmental protection, safety, and cost, providing customers with more competitive prices [51]. Huayang New Materials - The company is supported by state - owned enterprise resources and has a full - industrial - chain layout. As a provincial - level state - owned enterprise in Shanxi, it has natural advantages in order acquisition, policy support, and resource approval. Its subsidiary, Huashengfeng Company, is the first domestic precious metal recycling and processing enterprise for producing platinum catalytic nets for nitric acid production. The company also has an industrial chain advantage in "PBAT - modified materials - products" [57]. - As of July 17, 2025, the PE - TTM of Guiyan Platinum Industry, Huayang New Materials, and Haotong Technology were 20, - 62, and 35 times respectively, and the PB were 1.66, 23.88, and 2.81 times respectively. With the rise in platinum prices, relevant companies are expected to improve their performance and digest valuations. According to institutional consensus forecasts, Guiyan Platinum Industry's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2025, 2026, and 2027 will be 696 million yuan, 826 million yuan, and 955 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 16.9, 14.2, and 12.3 times at the current stock price [58].

【技术分析】 周四（7月17日），北京时间20:30，美国商务部和劳工部相继公布了6月零售销售、初请失业金人数以 及进出口物价指数等关键经济数据，引发市场广泛关注。6月零售销售环比增长0.6%，显著超出市场预 期的0.1%，一扫5月下跌0.9%的阴霾；核心零售销售（剔除汽车、汽油、建材和餐饮）增长0.5%，也好 于预期的0.3%。与此同时，截至7月12日当周初请失业金人数降至22.1万，低于市场预期的23.5万，显 示劳动力市场韧性犹存。进出口物价指数方面，6月进口物价指数月率仅上涨0.1%，不及预期的0.3%， 而出口物价指数月率上涨0.5%，反映出外部价格压力有所分化。 强劲的零售销售和初请失业金数据削弱了市场对美联储近期降息的预期。此前，美联储主席鲍威尔暗示 对降息持更开放态度，但6月通胀数据和关税敏感商品价格的上涨使得降息理由变得复杂。机构观点普 遍认为，劳动力市场的韧性和消费支出的回暖可能促使美联储维持"温和紧缩"立场。美联储"三号人 物"威廉斯表示，受通胀压力影响，经济增速可能放缓至1%，失业率可能升至4.5%，但短期内不急于降 息。前美联储理事凯文·沃什在CNBC上进一步指出，美联储需要与财政部 ...

白银td周四（7月16日）日K收涨，美国6月PPI月率录得0%，低于市场预期0.2%，前值为0.3%，温和的 通胀数据为银价提供了支撑，美市尾盘，白银td收报9115元/千克，上涨0.16%，日内最高上探9147元/千 克，最低触及9050元/千克。延期补偿费支付方向：Ag(T+D)—多付空。 【要闻回顾】 周三公布的美国6月PPI月率录得0%，低于市场预期0.2%，前值为0.3%；美国6月PPI年率录得2.3%，低 于市场预期2.5%，前值为2.7%。 美国6月生产者物价指数(PPI)环比持平，低于市场预期的0.2%增长，核心PPI同样表现平稳。这与5月 0.3%的上涨形成对比，显示出服务业价格疲软在一定程度上抵消了进口关税导致的商品价格上涨。这 一数据为银价提供了支撑，因为温和的通胀数据缓解了市场对美联储立即收紧政策的担忧。然而，6月 PPI同比上涨2.3%，仍显示出一定的通胀压力，叠加特朗普关税政策的影响，未来几个月通胀可能进一 步走高。 美联储褐皮书进一步揭示了关税对经济的广泛影响。企业报告称，关税导致的成本压力正在推高价格， 部分行业已提前调整价格以应对未来可能的波动。这种通胀预期为白银提供了长期利 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡运行 | 美元反弹利空金价 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 美关税冲击后，铜价大幅下挫，关 注前期中枢支撑 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡运行 核心逻辑：昨日金价先抑后扬，纽约金一度跌至 3310 ...

以人才之名，驱动企业高质量发展，香港雇员再培训局2025年度「ERB人才企业嘉许计划」于近日揭 晓，领峰贵金属很荣幸又一次荣膺「MD人才企业」殊荣，这是ERB自2016年后第10年向我司颁授嘉许 奖状，以此表彰领峰多年来坚持以人为本，在人才培育及发展方面取得的突出成就。 「ERB人才企业嘉许计划」由香港雇员再培训局推动，透过每两年一续的荣誉评定，为每一间重视人才 培训且表现杰出的企业致以肯定。是次嘉许，即是对领峰贵金属持续提高员工竞争力及引领行业人力资 源提升的高度认可，亦侧面印证了领峰优质人才建设、屡获机构首肯，凸显平台在业界的影响力进一步 提升。 十四载信赖之选，领峰贵金属汇聚行业精英，以济济人才为贵金属行业赋能。从贴心的24小时客服陪 伴，到技术团队先进加密技术所构建的信息安全屏障，领峰以高效稳定的交易环境及优质服务出圈。在 服务精益求精之际，亦不忘社会责任，领峰以感恩之心服务贡献社会，积极支持并响应雇主再培训局号 召，持续为行业输送更多专才，并践行环保公益及企业责任，接连获得包括世界绿色组织「绿色办公 室」、香港劳工处「好雇主约章」等机构荣誉认可，出众表现，赢得一片赞许。 再获「人才企业」称号，是荣誉 ...