声明：本文内容均是根据权威资料，结合个人观点撰写的原创内容，文末已标注文献来源及截图，请知悉 特朗普这回算是被美债逼到绝路了。 看着账本上36万亿的窟窿，再摸摸兜里叮当响的美国国库，这位总统算是把不要脸玩出了新高度，竟然想着抄萨达姆作业，要弄死自家最大的债主。 马斯克顶着效率委员会主任的头衔，满心以为能帮国家省钱。 结果查账查到医疗社保和军工集团的头上，立马被骂得狗血淋头，这帮人可是连总统都敢暗杀的狠角色，马斯克查他们简直是嫌命长。 干了没两个月马斯克就撂挑子不干了，连夜坐车回特斯拉总部，连办公室的咖啡机都来不及搬走，这也标志着美国的改革彻底宣告失败，特朗普的节流措施 告吹。 这事儿得从特朗普接手的烂摊子说起。 刚坐上总统宝座没几天，特朗普打开国库账本差点没背过气去：36万亿美元债务，每天光利息就得还几十亿，这哪是过日子，分明是天天给债主打工。 怪不得拜登一卸任立马耳朵不聋了，身体也精神了，感情美国总统根本不是人干得活。 要换成普通人早就跑路了，可特朗普能咋办？自己选的路，跪着也要走完，于是特朗普战战兢兢开始了自己的第二任期。 说到搞钱，特朗普首先想的是节流，把马斯克架出来当挡箭牌，然后自己在后面坐收渔翁之利 ...

2025.04. 15 本文字数：3155，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 美债是支撑美国政府和经济的重要根基，其重要性在上周已经显露。 彼时，美国国债遭遇大幅抛售——不少市场人士就预判，此次美股无法做到的事情，美债市场也许能 做到，即美债收益率的大幅持续攀升会令特朗普政府在对等关税政策上"眨眼"。情况也果然如此。 美国关税政策反复修改。14日的亚太交易时段，美元指数和美债终于短期筑底。美元指数稳定在99.7 附近，但离4月11日（上周五）创下的三年最低位不远。10年期美债收益率也仍在4.47%的上周高位 附近。 虽然美元指数和美债走势暂时稳定且试图寻底，但市场人士强调，此次导致美债和美元指数下跌的原 因更加结构性、系统性，因此投资者对美元资产的信心恐难随着特朗普此次政策让步而恢复。 特朗普"眨眼"，美元、美债寻底 上周五，衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数跌破100关口，为2023年7月以来首次，且创下3年以来 最低水平。 周一亚太交易时段，美元指数开始在99.7附近筑底，但仍接近三年低点。美元对瑞士法郎汇率小幅上 涨0.34%，上周五曾跌至十年低点，创下两年多来最糟糕的一周；欧元对美元汇率下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant market downturn in the U.S. stock market, driven by fears of a trade war initiated by President Trump, leading to a reassessment of economic outlooks, inflation trends, interest rates, and corporate earnings [3]. Economic Data Focus - Key economic data to watch includes the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for March, which is expected to influence market volatility if it exceeds expectations [3][4]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also be released, with particular attention to inflation expectations [3][4]. Company Earnings Reports - The earnings season is approaching, with major companies like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and Delta Air Lines set to report their results, which will provide insights into consumer and corporate demand [5]. Cal-Maine Foods - Cal-Maine Foods is expected to report a significant increase in earnings, with estimates suggesting a rise of over 250% year-over-year, driven by a shortage in egg supply and strong demand [6][8]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for Cal-Maine is $10.75, up from $3.01 in the same quarter last year, with quarterly revenue expected to grow by 102% to $1.42 billion [8]. - Despite recent declines in egg prices due to softening consumer demand, the company remains optimistic due to ongoing supply issues from avian influenza [8][10]. Delta Air Lines - Delta Air Lines faces a challenging outlook, with analysts downgrading earnings forecasts due to a weakening economy affecting consumer spending [11][13]. - The expected EPS for Delta is $0.44, reflecting a slight decline of 2% year-over-year, with revenue anticipated to grow by 7% to $13.6 billion [13]. - The airline's stock has seen a significant drop of 38.4% year-to-date, and concerns about its financial health are reflected in a moderate rating of 5.9 out of 10, primarily due to issues with its balance sheet and cash flow [15].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing theme in the banking industry is the "clean-up of non-performing assets," as evidenced by the annual reports and management statements from listed banks for 2024 [1] Summary by Sections Non-Performing Asset Transfer Trends - In 2024, the total amount of non-performing loans (NPLs) listed for transfer reached 286.19 billion yuan, an increase of 80.2% compared to 2023, with the number of listed projects growing over 40% [4] - The banking industry is expected to see significant growth in non-performing asset disposal, driven by an increase in participating institutions and market demand [2] Key Participants in NPL Transfers - Joint-stock banks accounted for nearly half of the total transaction volume, with a total of 112.54 billion yuan in non-performing loans, representing 49.83% of the total [4] - Consumer finance companies and state-owned banks followed, with transaction volumes of 41.44 billion yuan and 35.25 billion yuan, respectively [4] Characteristics of NPL Transactions - The bulk of personal business transactions, including personal consumption loans, accounted for 70% of the total NPL transaction volume, with personal consumption loans making up 66.6% of this category in Q4 2024 [4] - The average discount rate for NPLs decreased to 4.8%, down 20 basis points year-on-year, while the average principal recovery rate fell to 7.3%, down 50 basis points [7] Role of Local Asset Management Companies (AMCs) - Local AMCs have become the primary buyers of non-performing loans, acquiring 163.95 billion yuan, which constitutes 70% of the total transaction volume [8] - The active participation of local AMCs is often backed by local government support, enhancing their capacity to manage and acquire distressed assets [9] Market Expansion and Future Outlook - Over 20 commercial banks have announced NPL transfers in 2024, with total uncollected principal and interest exceeding 60 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous year [11] - The number of institutions involved in NPL transfer has reached 1,015, indicating a broadening market landscape [11] Challenges and Innovations in NPL Management - The need for innovation in traditional business models is pressing, as the sources of non-performing assets are expected to diversify, leading to longer disposal cycles [12] - Local AMCs must enhance their risk management capabilities and explore new methods for asset recovery, such as digital collection and asset securitization [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Mark Carney has committed to continuing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods until the U.S. demonstrates respect and makes credible commitments to free and fair trade [1][7]. Group 1: Political Context - Mark Carney won the leadership of the Liberal Party with nearly 86% of the votes and is expected to become the Prime Minister of Canada soon [1][18]. - The U.S. administration under President Donald Trump has created turmoil in the global economy and has implemented chaotic tariff policies affecting trade partners, including Canada [2][5]. - Carney's election comes at a time when Trump has threatened Canada with significant tariffs on various goods, including a 25% tariff on most Canadian and Mexican products [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Strategy - Carney aims to transform Canada into the strongest economy in the G7 and establish new trade corridors with reliable partners, positioning Canada as an "energy superpower" [8]. - He has promised to seek new markets for Canadian exports and reduce domestic trade barriers, while also pledging to eliminate proposed capital gains tax increases and cancel the consumption carbon tax [11]. - Carney plans to split the federal budget into an operating budget, which he commits to balancing, and a capital expenditure budget to allocate hundreds of billions for infrastructure investments to enhance productivity [12]. Group 3: Leadership and Experience - Carney has portrayed himself as an experienced crisis manager, having led central banks during critical times, including the global financial crisis and the Brexit turmoil [9]. - Despite his extensive banking experience, Carney has limited political experience and currently does not hold a seat in Parliament [9][10]. Group 4: Political Challenges - The Liberal Party's weak position in Parliament, with less than 50% of seats, suggests that a national election may occur sooner than the required date in October [13]. - Carney faces the decision of whether to enter a spring election, which could lead to a transitional government amid potential trade wars, or to seek support from opposition parties for a stable governance period [14]. Group 5: Opposition and Criticism - The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, has launched attacks against Carney, questioning his transparency regarding commitments and business interests [15]. - Carney has criticized Poilievre for past threats to undermine the Bank of Canada during economic instability and has also challenged his climate policy [16][17].

淘天称今年双 11 投入力度近年最大。 包括 300 亿元消费券及红包和 30 亿元商家支持补贴，流量投入超百亿。 阿里（9988.HK）集团副总裁、天猫事业部总裁、天猫总裁家洛在媒体沟通会上说，今年国庆假 期，很多大型国际品牌的线下销售并不好，有的同比下滑十几个百分点，但同样的品牌却在线上和 天猫增长很好；消费环境也带来一些明显的消费特征变化，比如大家日常的消费没那么自如随意， 更愿意在优惠大的时候集中囤货，加之政府补贴首次被引入双 11，让今年双 11 背负更多商家和平 台期待。 今年双 11 的另一大变化是简化了红包、消费券的计算规则，将商品实际到手价直接显示在消费者 浏览的商品页，消费者不用再算数学题，方便网购不熟练的用户，也方便直接比价。家洛称比价和 "贵必赔" 是希望把定价权还给商家，让各个平台的价格稳定、齐平，不形成行业的额外 "内卷"。 全球最大药企礼来投资 15 亿元增产苏州工厂。 全球最大市值药企礼来公司宣布，将投资约 15 亿元人民币用于其苏州工厂的产能升级，扩大 2 型 糖尿病和肥胖创新药物的生产规模，以满足中国患者需求，并支持未来管线产品的生产。自 2022 年起，礼来在 2 型糖尿 ...