Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment has improved, leading to a positive outlook for copper prices. As of December 12, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 94,080 RMB/ton, up 1.40% from December 5, while LME copper closed at 11,553 USD/ton, down 0.96% [1]. - The supply-demand dynamics remain tight, with expectations for continued upward movement in copper prices due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: Domestic copper concentrate production in October 2025 was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and down 12.1% year-on-year. The TC spot price as of December 12, 2025, was -43.33 USD/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.3 USD/ton from December 5, 2025 [3][60]. - **Demand**: The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a slight decrease in operating rates to 66.31%, down 0.81 percentage points week-on-week. Air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year by 22% in December 2025, but improve by 14% in January 2026 [3][91]. Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 2.6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 0.8%. As of December 12, 2025, COMEX copper inventory reached a historical high of 451,000 tons, up 3.2% from December 5, 2025 [2][26]. Futures Market Summary - The active SHFE copper contract saw a significant decrease in open interest, down 18% to 189,000 lots as of December 12, 2025, which is at the 52nd percentile since 1995 [4][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing positions in Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while also monitoring Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].

铜周报 铜行业周报 2025/12/12 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追 ...

Core Viewpoint - The long-term outlook for copper demand is optimistic, driven by sectors such as electric vehicles, AI, and power grids, with expectations of a balanced supply-demand situation from 2025 to 2027, leading to an upward trend in copper prices [2][4][67]. Group 1: Copper Demand Drivers - Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to significantly increase copper consumption, with a projected CAGR of 14% from 2025 to 2030, resulting in an annual increase of 21 million tons [11][13][67]. - The AI sector is driving demand for data centers, with an anticipated additional copper requirement of 206 million tons from 2025 to 2030, averaging 34 million tons annually [16][67]. - The power infrastructure cycle, including the upgrade of aging power grid systems and AI-driven resource construction, is expected to stabilize copper demand over the long term [20][68]. Group 2: Regional Insights - In China, stable domestic demand and the development of new productive forces are expected to boost copper demand, particularly through new infrastructure projects [20][69]. - In the United States, the need for power grid updates and expansions is anticipated to support a rebound in copper demand, driven by manufacturing return and energy transition [27][30][69]. - The European Union's focus on renewable energy sources and post-war reconstruction efforts is projected to enhance copper demand [42][69]. - Other regions, such as India and Southeast Asia, are expected to see increased copper demand due to infrastructure investments and manufacturing shifts [45][50][70]. Group 3: Short-term Factors and Market Dynamics - Recent tariff impacts are expected to ease after May 2025, contributing to a more stable outlook for copper demand [4][71]. - The copper market is characterized by regional supply and demand dynamics, with geopolitical factors affecting the flow of copper and creating potential supply risks [62][71]. - The transition from aluminum to copper in certain applications is limited by technical and market challenges, which may not significantly impact overall copper demand in the short term [64][71].

报告摘要 本周小结：矿端短缺+美国以外地区低库存，看好铜价继续上行 截至2025年12月5日，SHFE铜收盘价92780 元/吨，环比11月28日+6.12%；LME铜收盘价11665 美元/吨， 环比11月28日+4.38%。12月3日LME注销仓单库存达5.7万吨（占LME总库存35%），引发市场对于美国以 外地区低库存的担忧；嘉能可当日将2026年铜产量指引中枢下调9万吨，显示铜矿扰动增强；线缆企业开 工率在铜价维持高位背景下连续回升5周，Q4电网旺季效应仍存；2025Q4空调排产同比下降，但环比改 善；供需仍将维持偏紧格局，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比-8.4%，LME铜库存环比+2% （1）港口铜精矿库存：截至2025年12月5日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存75.0 万吨，环比上周+3.7%。 （2）全球电解铜库存：截至2025年12月1日，全球三大交易所库存合计67.6 万吨，环比11月24日+1.0%。 截至2025年12月4日，LME铜全球库存16.3 万吨，环比+2.0%；SMM铜社会库存15.9 万吨，环比11月27 日-8.4%。 供给：10月中国铜矿产量环比-8%、同比-12% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [6] Core Viewpoints - A super cycle for industrial metals may have arrived, with a focus on copper and aluminum sectors. The report highlights that even small supply-demand gaps can lead to significant price elasticity during a rate-cutting cycle [9][13] - Copper prices have surged, with LME copper closing at a historical high of $11,655 per ton, driven by supply tightness and tariff concerns [9][13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from strong demand in energy storage, with projections indicating a need for 800,000 tons of aluminum materials due to the anticipated growth in storage battery production [9][14] - The gold sector is also viewed positively, with expectations for gold prices to exceed $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by rising inflation expectations [9][15] Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report indicates a significant increase in metal prices, with copper and aluminum prices rising sharply. The LME copper price increased by 1.88% recently, reflecting strong market conditions [9][13] - Supply constraints are evident, with LME copper warehouse cancellations reaching 56,900 tons, about 35% of total inventory, marking the largest single-day withdrawal in 13 years [9][13] - The report suggests that the copper and aluminum sectors will see continued price increases due to strong demand from traditional and new energy sectors [9][13][14] Steel - The steel sector is experiencing weak supply-demand fundamentals during the off-season, with a slight recovery in steel profitability noted [17] - Weekly rebar consumption decreased by 4.81% compared to the previous week, indicating a decline in demand [21] - Overall steel prices have shown a slight increase, with the rebar price rising to 3,355 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.16% week-on-week increase [38][39] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in October 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 67.28%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [42] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales in October 2025 showing year-on-year growth of 19.94% and 18.65%, respectively [46] - Nickel production and consumption trends are mixed, with refined nickel output in China showing a notable year-on-year decline of 12.20% [44][49] Price Trends - The report notes that lithium prices have seen a slight decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 91,100 yuan per ton, down 2.36% week-on-week [51][52] - Cobalt prices have increased significantly, with sulfuric acid cobalt priced at 90,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 236.45% [51][52]

本文来自格隆汇专栏：中信证券研究，作者：敖翀、拜俊飞、涂耀廷 11月中旬以来库存拐点已现，叠加降息预期和国内减产发酵，年内LME铜价有望加速迈向12000美元/ 吨。展望明年，"美铜囤货"与"国内减产"的双重叙事有望加速共振，供给缺口有望拉阔60%，预计 12000美元将成为铜价的崭新起点。全面推荐铜板块配置。 库存拐点将助力年内铜价加速迈向12000美元。 针对近期市场关于"高铜价和高库存"背离的讨论，我们认为目前库存读数偏高更多受COMEX囤货影 响，LME和国内库存难言高企。考虑到持续溢价状态下的COMEX库存回流难度较高、LME库存主要为 中俄货源，当前市场上有限的有效库存愈显脆弱，特别是在全球经济预期向上、经贸风险增加的大环境 下。我们预计Q4国内供需均环比走弱，但供给的下滑幅度更大，并将推动年底国内库存消费天数下滑 至近五年均值以下（<10天）。每年年底去库至来年春节假期后的1-2个月，期间的铜价上涨具备充分的 历史数据验证。随着11月中旬以来库存拐点已现，叠加降息预期升温和国内减产发酵，年内LME铜价 有望加速迈向12000美元/吨。 美铜囤货延续叠加国内减产落地，明年供给缺口料将大幅拉阔。 1 ...

Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing intense competition due to tight supply, with copper prices reaching historical highs on December 3, 2023 [2][4][5] - The significant increase in COMEX copper inventory, which has surged over 300% compared to the previous year, indicates a strategic accumulation of copper in the U.S. [4][6] - The global copper supply chain is fragile, influenced by various factors including production challenges from major suppliers like Codelco and geopolitical issues [5][6] Price Movements - On December 3, 2023, LME three-month copper prices hit a record high of $11,448.5 per ton, marking a 2.72% increase [4] - Shanghai copper futures also reached a historical peak, surpassing 90,000 yuan per ton, with a 1.97% rise [4] - Other metals like tin also saw significant price increases, with LME tin rising 4.38% to $40,750 per ton [4] Supply Chain Dynamics - Codelco's proposed annual contract premium for refined copper for 2026 has surged to $335-$350 per ton, a staggering increase of over 275% from the previous year [5] - The ongoing tightness in global copper supply is exacerbated by production stagnation in Chile, delays in African projects, and export restrictions in Indonesia [5][6] U.S. Market Behavior - U.S. funds have been aggressively accumulating copper, with COMEX copper inventory exceeding 400,000 tons, representing 62% of the total inventory across major exchanges [6] - The strategic accumulation of copper in the U.S. is seen as a response to potential tariffs and reflects broader concerns about global supply vulnerabilities [6][9] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that copper prices may continue to rise, especially if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in December, which could further stimulate demand in emerging sectors like AI and renewable energy [8][9] - The potential for reduced production from smelting companies in response to low processing fees could tighten supply further, driving prices up [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a bullish outlook on copper prices due to supply shortages at the mining level affecting the smelting sector, with expectations for continued price increases in the future [4]. Supply and Demand - As of November 28, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 87,430 CNY/ton, up 2.07% from November 21, while LME copper closed at 11,176 USD/ton, up 3.69% [4]. - The China Copper Raw Materials Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) has reached a consensus to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% by 2026, indicating tightening supply [4]. - Cable companies have seen a continuous recovery in operating rates for four weeks, with Q4 expected to benefit from seasonal demand [4]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 11%, while LME copper inventory increased by 2% [5]. - As of November 28, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 723,000 tons, up 2.6% week-on-week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 669,000 tons as of November 24, 2025, up 6.8% from November 17 [5]. Supply - In October, copper scrap imports increased by 7% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year [6]. - China's copper concentrate production in July 2025 was 138,000 tons, down 6.3% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year [6]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 3,544 CNY/ton as of November 28, 2025, up 869 CNY/ton from November 21 [6]. Smelting - In October 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, down 2.6% month-on-month but up 9.6% year-on-year [7]. - The current TC spot price is -42.70 USD/ton, down 0.4 USD/ton from November 21, marking the lowest level since September 2007 [7]. - In October, electrolytic copper imports decreased by 21.5% year-on-year, while exports surged by 542% [7]. Demand - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw an increase in operating rates to 66.89%, up 1.21 percentage points week-on-week [8]. - Home air conditioner production is expected to decline by 22% year-on-year in December 2025, but is projected to increase by 14% in January 2026 [8]. - Brass rod production, which represents about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, had an operating rate of 43.5% in October 2025, down 1.6 percentage points month-on-month and 7.8 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Futures - As of November 28, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 13.4% week-on-week, reaching 218,000 lots [9]. - COMEX non-commercial net long positions were 43,000 lots as of October 14, 2025, up 9.1% week-on-week [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The consensus among CSPT member companies to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026 indicates a significant tightening in copper supply, which is expected to drive copper prices to new highs [4][1]. - The disruptions in copper mining in 2025, including production guidance reductions from major mines, are likely to exacerbate the supply constraints [2]. - The current low processing fees (TC) for copper smelting, coupled with reliance on by-product revenues, poses profitability challenges for smelting companies [3]. Summary by Sections Production Capacity - CSPT members account for approximately 70% of China's electrolytic copper production capacity, with a total capacity of over 10 million tons per year [1]. Mining Disruptions - Significant production guidance reductions from various mines in 2025, totaling a decrease of 42,000 tons and 35,000 tons for 2025 and 2026 respectively, represent about 1.8% and 1.5% of global copper mine production [2][19]. Profitability - The processing fee (TC) for copper smelting has reached historical lows, with spot prices at -43 USD/ton and long-term contracts dropping to 0 USD/ton, forcing smelting companies to depend on by-product revenues for profitability [3][11]. Inventory Levels - Global copper inventories are at a six-year high, with LME copper at 159,000 tons and COMEX at 419,000 tons, but the distribution is uneven, leading to potential tightness outside the U.S. [3][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, and Jincheng Mining, while also suggesting to monitor Tongling Nonferrous, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper [4].

宏微观共振下铜价突破上行 沪铜周度报告·2025年12月01日 姓名：安冉 从业资格号：F3049294 交易咨询证书号：Z0017020 姓名：王海聪 从业资格号：F03101206 交易咨询证书号：Z0022465 联系人：陈天敏 从业资格号：F03134700 目 录 01 周度综述：宏观/周度数据/多空逻辑/风险提示 02 铜产业链解析：价格/价差/成本/利润/供给/需求/库存 CONTENTS 资金持仓：外盘持仓CFTC/LME 03 Part 01 周度综述 ➢ 周度综述（11.24-11.28） ➢ 本页数据为2025.11.24-2025.11.28日期内周度数据对比 | | 项目 | | | | | 周度数据 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上期 | 当期 | 环比 | 环比率 | 综述 | | | 铜精矿现货TC（美元/ 吨） | -42.32 | -42.75 | -0.43 | -1.02% | 本周铜精矿现货成交较为冷清，现货TC小幅下行，市场重点仍聚焦与长单谈判。 | | 供给端 | 精废价差（元/吨） | 2 ...