Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - After the previous downstream restocking ended, zinc price rebounds led to a cold spot market with an expanding spot discount. Supply pressure is increasing, while consumption, though showing some resilience, cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, leading to a trend of inventory accumulation and putting pressure on zinc prices. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$10.87/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,300 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of 35 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton, with a premium of -40 yuan/ton. [1] - **Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,330 yuan/ton, closed at 22,380 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 85,449 lots, and the open interest was 98,472 lots. The highest price was 22,395 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,250 yuan/ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 5, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 107,300 tons, a change of 4,100 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 92,275 tons, a change of -4,725 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: After downstream restocking, zinc price rebounds made spot transactions cold and spot discounts expand. [4] - **Supply**: In July, China's zinc ingot production was 602,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23%. The expected production in August is 620,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25%, and supply pressure continues to increase. [4] - **Cost**: There is no interference in overseas mines, and the domestic concentrate treatment charge (TC) has increased by 100 yuan/ton, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. [4] - **Consumption**: Downstream operating rates show relative resilience, but overall consumption cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, resulting in a trend of inventory accumulation, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information available in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the zinc market show strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation, providing limited support for zinc prices. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, weakening the upward pressure on non - ferrous metals. Considering the possible recurrence of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the downward space for zinc prices is also limited. It is expected that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate within the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton in the short term. Continued attention should be paid to macroeconomic conditions and downstream consumption [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 2.07% to 22,230 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main SHFE zinc contract dropped by 2.47% to 22,320 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) declined by 3.52% to 2,729.5 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report provides historical data on basis, LME zinc premium/discount (0 - 3), trading volume - to - open interest ratio, and SHFE - LME ratio (excluding exchange rate impact) [15]. It also shows data on spot premium/discount in different regions and spreads between different contract months [17]. 3.2 Raw Material and Production 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate - **Port Inventory**: As of August 1, the inventory of imported zinc ore at Lianyungang Port was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, etc. was 333,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21,000 tons [24]. - **Profit**: As of August 1, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 3,984 yuan/metal ton. In June, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.87% and a year - on - year increase of 22.42%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was 2.5339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.74% [31]. - **TC**: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee increased to 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index rose to 78.75 US dollars/dry ton [3]. 3.2.2 Refined Zinc - **Production**: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to improve. As of August 1, the production profit was - 254 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35,700 tons, and it is expected that the production in July will increase to about 600,000 tons [43]. - **Import**: The import profit window was closed. As of August 1, the import profit of refined zinc was - 1,577.43 yuan/ton. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 192,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30,000 tons [47][48]. 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Galvanizing - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises decreased by 2.65 percentage points to 56.77%. Black metal prices first rose and then fell, leading to poor sales of galvanized products, weakened orders, and some enterprises reduced their operating rates to consume existing inventories [54]. - **Inventory**: Galvanizing enterprises' raw material inventory decreased, and finished product inventory increased. Despite the continuous decline in zinc ingot prices during the week, downstream buyers mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude, with more orders placed but less actual transactions. Weak orders led to the accumulation of finished product inventory [57]. 3.3.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - **Price**: The prices of Zamak3 and Zamak5 zinc alloys decreased by 2.01% and 1.96% respectively, to 22,925 yuan/ton and 23,475 yuan/ton [64]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 2.79 percentage points to 48.24%. It is the consumption off - season, and although some enterprises resumed production, the overall operating rate still declined. In terms of terminal demand, orders for real - estate hardware, luggage zippers, etc. were average, and orders for electronic products were good but accounted for a relatively low proportion, providing limited support for enterprise production [67]. - **Inventory**: Die - casting zinc alloy enterprises' raw material inventory increased slightly as alloy factories' purchasing enthusiasm slightly recovered during the week of zinc price decline, but still mainly for rigid demand. Finished product inventory decreased [70]. 3.3.3 Zinc Oxide - **Price**: The average price of zinc oxide (≥99.7%) decreased by 1.84% to 21,300 yuan/ton [78]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises increased slightly by 0.14 percentage points to 56.13%. In the terminal market, it is the off - season for domestic automobile production and sales, the rubber - grade market is average, and the feed - grade and ceramic - grade zinc oxide markets are weak due to the off - season. Electronic - grade orders are relatively strong supported by power grid demand [81]. - **Inventory**: Zinc oxide enterprises' raw material inventory decreased slightly as enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases during the week of zinc price decline. Finished product inventory increased [84]. 3.4 Inventory - **Social Inventory**: As of July 31, the SMM three - location zinc ingot inventory was 103,200 tons, showing an increase. At the beginning of the week, although zinc prices declined, downstream purchases were limited during the off - season, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The SMM zinc ingot bonded - area inventory was 7,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons [92]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of August 1, the SHFE inventory was 61,700 tons, showing an increase. As of July 31, the LME inventory was 100,800 tons, showing a decrease [95]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: In June 2025, the production was 585,000 tons, the import volume was 25,000 tons, the export volume was 200 tons, the apparent consumption was 610,000 tons, the actual consumption was 586,000 tons, and the monthly supply - demand balance was a surplus of 24,000 tons [101].

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - The absolute price of zinc has declined, and the spot market trading has improved. However, the spot premium remains weak. The cost of imported ore TC is rising, and the smelting profit is increasing. The supply pressure in August remains high, and the social inventory is showing a cumulative trend. The zinc price is under pressure due to the consumption off - season and supply pressure. [4] Key Data Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$2.69/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,300 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 0 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -60 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,260 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -40 yuan/ton. [1] Futures Market - On July 31, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,625 yuan/ton and closed at 22,345 yuan/ton, down 345 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 182,660 lots, and the open interest was 110,481 lots. The highest price was 22,685 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 22,295 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of July 31, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 103,200 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 104,800 tons, a decrease of 4,250 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - The spot market trading has improved as downstream buyers purchase at low prices, but the spot premium remains weak. The domestic ore tender price for the new month is not settled, and the imported ore TC is rising, with the highest offer reaching $85/ton. The smelting profit is increasing, and the supply pressure in August remains high. The smelting plants have sufficient raw material reserves and low procurement enthusiasm for ores, so the TC is expected to continue rising. The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, but the consumption growth is lower than the supply growth, and the social inventory is accumulating, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. The zinc price is under pressure due to the consumption off - season and supply pressure. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The zinc market is continuing to accumulate inventory. The prices of both Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc futures have declined, with the Shanghai zinc main - contract closing price at 22345 yuan/ton, down 1.43%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price at 2795.5 dollars/ton, down 0.68% [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The Shanghai zinc main - contract closing price decreased by 1.43% to 22345 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price decreased by 0.68% to 2795.5 dollars/ton [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main - contract increased by 41252 to 182660 lots, while the LME zinc trading volume decreased by 701 to 8740 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai zinc main - contract decreased by 5764 to 110481 lots, and the LME zinc open interest increased by 1164 to 189911 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The Shanghai 0 zinc premium increased by 10 to 0 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium increased by 1.23 to - 2.69 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai zinc futures inventory decreased by 174 to 15058 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 4250 to 104800 tons [1]. 3.2 News - The US is increasing pressure as the tariff deadline approaches, with multiple countries sending delegations to Washington for negotiations. Trump announced an agreement with South Korea and plans to sign a new executive order on Thursday to impose higher tariffs on countries that fail to reach trade agreements [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The zinc trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook according to the defined range of [-2, 2] where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [2][3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market has weakened, and the spot premium has generally declined steadily. The supply pressure in August remains high, and the social inventory shows a trend of accumulation. Due to the current consumption off - season and supply pressure, zinc prices face significant pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$3.92 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,680 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 10 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,660 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,640 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 50 yuan per ton [1]. Futures Market - On July 30, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,640 yuan per ton, closed at 22,670 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 141,408 lots, and the open interest was 116,245 lots. The highest price was 22,770 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,610 yuan per ton [2]. Inventory - As of July 30, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 103,700 tons, a change of 5,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 109,050 tons, a change of - 3,100 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - Downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market has weakened, and traders have a mentality of supporting prices. The domestic ore new - month tender price has not been finalized, and the imported ore TC is still rising, with the highest offer reaching $85 per ton. The smelting profit is increasing, and the supply pressure in August remains high. The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, but the social inventory is accumulating, and the zinc price is under pressure [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - For copper, the current demand is seasonally weak due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment motivation, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but long - term bullish view is maintained on Shanghai copper, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly from January to May, and August is a seasonal off - season for demand. Inventory may continue to accumulate slightly in August. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand, as well as far - month and inside - outside reverse arbitrage opportunities under the low - inventory pattern [1][2]. - For zinc, the price fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and inventories at home and abroad show different trends. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see, pay attention to commodity sentiment, and manage positions. Inside - outside positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to month - spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories at home and abroad are stable. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. - For stainless steel, supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have decreased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [6][7]. - For lead, the price declined slightly this week. Supply and demand have small changes, and there are expectations of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [8][9]. - For tin, the price fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and the domestic market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see or short - sell lightly at high prices [12]. - For industrial silicon, the production of Hesheng may change the supply - demand balance. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the disk is expected to fluctuate. If the resumption of production accelerates, the supply will be in excess, and the price may decline [15]. - For lithium carbonate, the current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disturbances. If the risks are resolved, the price may remain low and fluctuate [17]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased from 180 to 110, and the warehouse receipt increased by 251. The spot import profit increased by 216.25, and the three - month import profit increased by 203.83 [1]. - **Analysis**: The demand is currently weak, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the 4.8% - 5.5% range. A short - term cautious but long - term bullish view is maintained, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 40, and the domestic alumina price increased by 1. The social inventory showed a small change, and the exchange inventory remained the same [1]. - **Analysis**: Supply increased slightly from January to May, August is a seasonal off - season for demand, and inventory may continue to accumulate slightly. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and arbitrage opportunities [1][2]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the zinc price fluctuated narrowly. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,350. The import profit of Shanghai zinc increased [5]. - **Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and inventories at home and abroad show different trends. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see, pay attention to commodity sentiment, and manage positions. Inside - outside positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to month - spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 900. The import profit of spot nickel decreased by 660.34 [6]. - **Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories at home and abroad are stable. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled stainless steel remained unchanged [6]. - **Analysis**: Supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have decreased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [6][7]. Lead - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot premium of lead increased by 10, and the LME inventory increased by 6,700. The import profit of spot lead increased by 71.14 [8]. - **Analysis**: The price declined slightly this week. Supply and demand have small changes, and there are expectations of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [8][9]. Tin - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot import profit of tin decreased by 2,016.08, and the LME inventory increased by 35. The LME C - 3M increased by 31 [12]. - **Analysis**: The price fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and the domestic market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see or short - sell lightly at high prices [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the 421 Yunnan basis and 421 Sichuan basis changed, and the 553 East China basis and 553 Tianjin basis also changed. The number of warehouse receipts changed slightly [15]. - **Analysis**: The production of Hesheng may change the supply - demand balance. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the disk is expected to fluctuate. If the resumption of production accelerates, the supply will be in excess, and the price may decline [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 750, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 700. The basis of the main contract increased by 1,530 [17]. - **Analysis**: The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disturbances. If the risks are resolved, the price may remain low and fluctuate [17].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating with a bearish bias. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - After the overseas short squeeze risk is released, zinc prices are expected to return to fundamental logic. Currently in the off - season for consumption and facing supply pressure, zinc prices are under significant pressure [3] 3. Summary by Content Important Data - As of July 25, 2025, the LME zinc price increased by 3.16% to $2,840.5 per ton from the previous week, and the SHFE zinc main contract increased by 2.65% to 22,885 yuan per ton. The LME zinc spot premium (0 - 3) changed from $4.75 per ton last week to - $1.96 per ton [1] - As of the week ending July 25, the weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates in SMM remained flat at 3,800 yuan per metal ton compared to the previous week. The weekly processing fee index for imported zinc concentrates rose by $2 - 3 per ton to around $76 per ton. The current high - price for imported dollars is $85 per dry ton, generally ranging from $60 - 70 per dry ton, and the latest tender results for domestic mines have not been finalized [1] - In terms of consumption, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises increased by 0.3% to 59.42% from the previous week, the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 0.92% to 51.03%, and the operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 0.33% to 55.99% [1] - According to SMM statistics, as of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions of SMM was 98,300 tons, an increase of 4,800 tons from the previous week. The warrant inventory increased by 1,928 tons to 13,289 tons from the previous week, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,325 tons to 115,775 tons [1] - As of July 24, 2025, the production profit of smelting enterprises in the industry (excluding by - product income) was about - 140 yuan per ton, and the profit after adding by - product income was about 1,200 yuan per ton [2] Market Analysis - Last week, due to the combined factors of market sentiment explosion and overseas short squeezes, the zinc futures price rose significantly, but the demand in the spot market did not improve, and the spot premium declined rapidly [3] - On the cost side, the new monthly tender price for domestic mines has not been finalized, and the TC for imported mines continues to rise, with the highest offer reaching $85 per ton. The smelting profit is increasing, and the expectation of increased supply remains unchanged. Smelters have sufficient raw material reserves and are not very motivated to purchase from the mine end. It is expected that the TC will continue to rise [3] - On the consumption side, the operating rate of downstream enterprises shows relative resilience, and overall consumption is not bad, but it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. Social inventory is showing a cumulative trend, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the second half of the year [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, it gives individual outlooks for various commodities, including bullish, bearish, and neutral views. Core Views of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of multiple commodities, offering insights into their price trends, fundamental data, and relevant market news. It suggests that different commodities are influenced by various factors such as supply - demand dynamics, macroeconomic conditions, and industry - specific events. For example, some commodities like gold, silver, and aluminum are expected to show upward trends, while others like tin are predicted to experience price weakness. Summary According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold is expected to move upward in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2510 was 781.70, up 0.60%, and the overnight closing price was 785.76, up 0.76%. [2][7][8] - Silver is predicted to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 1. The closing price of沪银2510 was 9271, down 0.02%, and the overnight closing price was 9420.00, up 1.85%. [2][7][8] Base Metals - Copper: Inventory reduction supports the price. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 79,770, up 1.70%. [2][11] - Zinc: It will fluctuate within a range, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of沪锌主力 was 22925, up 2.83%. [2][14] - Lead: The expected supply - demand contradiction supports the price, with a trend strength of 1. The closing price of沪铅主力 was 16960, up 0.83%. [2][17] - Tin: The price is weakening, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 267,250, up 1.02%. [2][19] - Aluminum: It will move upward in a volatile manner. Alumina shows strong short - term sentiment, and casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum is 0, alumina is 1, and casting aluminum alloy is 0. The closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 20840. [2][23] - Nickel: Macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity. The trend strength of both nickel and stainless steel is 0. The closing price of沪镍主力 was 122,550, and the closing price of stainless steel主力 was 12,905. [2][26] Energy - Related Commodities - Iron ore: Supported by macro - expectations, it will oscillate strongly. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of the futures was 809.0, up 3.06%. [2][38] - Coke and coking coal: Both are expected to oscillate strongly. The trend strength of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1. The closing price of JM2509 was 1006, up 8.64%, and the closing price of J2509 was 1803, up 5.60%. [2][49][50] - Thermal coal: With the recovery of daily consumption, it will stabilize in a volatile manner. The trend strength is 0. The previous closing price of ZC2507 was 840.0000, down 51.4 from the previous settlement price. [2][53] Chemical Commodities - Carbonate lithium: Potential supply reduction combined with strong macro - sentiment may lead to a strong short - term trend. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 71,280, up 1,320. [2][31] - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the futures price is resilient. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of Si2509 was 9,260, up 565. [2][35] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the transaction situation at the component end. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of PS2509 was 45,660, up 1,810. [2][35] Building Materials and Steel - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment remains strong, and they will oscillate strongly. The trend strength of both is 1. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,224, up 68, and the closing price of HC2510 was 3,394, up 73. [2][41] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Market sentiment remains strong, and they will oscillate strongly. The trend strength of both is 1. The closing price of硅铁2509 was 5668, up 160, and the closing price of锰硅2509 was 5914, up 110. [2][45] Others - Logs will fluctuate repeatedly. [2][56]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by tariff policies and supply - demand changes. The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st, and the supply is relatively sufficient in the short term. The market is mainly for rigid - demand procurement and waiting - and - seeing [3][5]. - The alumina market is expected to shift from a tight - balance to a structurally surplus situation in July, but the spot market still has some support, and the upper pressure on the price rebound is around 3200 yuan [12][16]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The short - term price is under pressure and fluctuates, and the inventory is expected to show a narrow - range increase or decrease in July [21][22]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a weak supply - demand relationship. The supply is stable, the demand is insufficient, and the price is expected to be mainly affected by cost and aluminum price [25][27]. - The zinc market has a continuous increase in supply and enters the off - season of consumption. The price is under pressure and may decline [33][34]. - The lead market has limited supply growth and improved consumption. The short - term price may fluctuate at a high level [39][40]. - The nickel market is affected by tariff concerns, with weak supply and demand in the off - season. The price is weak and oscillating with cost support [43][44]. - The stainless steel market has poor demand both at home and abroad, and the price is under pressure due to over - supply and inventory accumulation [49][50]. - The industrial silicon market may be in a balanced supply - demand situation in July. The price may decline slightly in the short term and then rise after a correction [55][56]. - The polysilicon market is affected by rumors and price transmission. The short - term price may enter a volatile trend [60][62]. - The lithium carbonate market has many supply - side disturbances. The price may oscillate at a high level in the short term and may decline in the fourth quarter [65][66]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Review - The Shanghai copper 2508 contract closed at 77,980 yuan/ton, up 0.06%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its position by 12,976 lots to 499,000 lots. In the spot market, the price trends in different regions vary [2]. Important Information - The US and Indonesia reached an agreement on July 15th. The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on 72 billion euros of US goods. In June 2025, the import of copper ore and concentrates increased year - on - year, while the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased [3][4]. Logic Analysis - The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st, the LME copper inventory is increasing, and the domestic supply is relatively sufficient. The market is mainly for rigid - demand procurement [5][7]. Trading Strategy - Not provided Alumina Market Review - The alumina 2509 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 3111 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 8379 lots to 422,200 lots. The spot price increased in different regions [9]. Important Information - There are many aspects of information, including China's central financial meeting, domestic spot transactions, warehouse receipts, production capacity, output, inventory, and bauxite shipments [10][11][12]. Logic Analysis - The production capacity is stable, but the output is increasing. The supply - demand pattern is expected to change, and the spot market still has support [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short positions continue to hold; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [14] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract increased by 85 yuan to 20,435 yuan/ton. The spot price increased slightly in different regions [20]. Important Information - It includes inventory changes, US inflation data, Sino - US trade information, and housing completion data [21]. Logic Analysis - Affected by macro - factors and fundamentals, the price is under pressure and fluctuates, and the inventory is expected to show a narrow - range change [22]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under short - term pressure and fluctuates; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [23] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 45 yuan to 19,820 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 93 lots to 10,075 lots. The spot price remained stable [25]. Important Information - It includes production, cost, profit, and inventory data [25][26]. Logic Analysis - The supply is stable, the demand is insufficient, and the price is mainly affected by cost and aluminum price [27]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under pressure at a high level and maintains a bearish view; Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum price is between - 200 and - 1000 yuan, and consider spot - futures arbitrage when the spot - futures price difference is more than 400 yuan; Option: Wait and see [30] Zinc Market Review - The Shanghai zinc 2508 contract decreased by 0.27% to 22,030 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai zinc index decreased by 3486 lots to 231,600 lots. The spot market trading is mainly among traders [32]. Important Information - Vedanta's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter of 2025 [33]. Logic Analysis - The supply is increasing, the consumption is in the off - season, and the price is under pressure [34]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Hold profitable short positions and add short positions when the price is high; Arbitrage: Buy put options or sell call options; Option: Wait and see [35] Lead Market Review - The Shanghai lead 2508 contract decreased by 0.65% to 16,925 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai lead index increased by 3823 lots to 96,600 lots. The spot market trading is not good [37]. Important Information - Middle - East will impose different levels of tariffs on Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises [39]. Logic Analysis - The supply growth is limited, the consumption is improving, and the short - term price may fluctuate at a high level [40]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term price may fluctuate at a high level, and high - selling and low - buying can be carried out in the range; Arbitrage and Option: Not provided [41] Nickel Market Review - The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2509 increased by 1120 yuan to 120,710 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 12,098 lots. The spot premium changed [42]. Important Information - GKEML completed the LME warehouse receipts of three metals, and the US adjusted the tariff on Indonesian goods [43]. Logic Analysis - Affected by tariff concerns, the supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and the price is weak and oscillating [44]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Not provided; Arbitrage: Sell put options; Option: Wait and see [45] Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2508 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 12,670 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 5886 lots. The spot price is in a certain range [48]. Important Information - India postponed the implementation of the BIS stainless - steel certification rule, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese cold - rolled stainless - steel products [49]. Logic Analysis - The demand is poor at home and abroad, and the price is under pressure due to over - supply and inventory accumulation [50]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish view on rebounds; Arbitrage: Wait and see [51] Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated weakly and closed at 8685 yuan/ton, down 0.91%. The spot price of some grades increased [52][54]. Important Information - The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon [55]. Logic Analysis - The supply - demand situation in July may be balanced. The price may decline slightly in the short term and then rise after a correction [56]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price oscillates weakly and can be bullish after a correction; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [53] Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures main contract rose first and then fell, closing at 42,945 yuan/ton, up 1.50%. The spot price remained unchanged [57][58]. Important Information - China and the EU held an energy dialogue and agreed to continue cooperation in multiple fields [59]. Logic Analysis - Affected by rumors and price transmission, the short - term price may enter a volatile trend [60][62]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Operate in the range; Arbitrage: Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon strategy; Option: Wait and see [63] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2509 contract increased by 260 yuan to 66,420 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 3318 lots. The spot price increased [64]. Important Information - China adjusted the technology export catalog, and Chilean indigenous groups applied to suspend a lithium - mining cooperation procedure [65]. Logic Analysis - There are many supply - side disturbances. The price may oscillate at a high level in the short term and may decline in the fourth quarter [66]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait for the right - side short - selling opportunity; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [67][68][70]

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The downstream has limited restocking behavior despite the decline in absolute prices. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the spot premium is stable. The import ore TC is rising, and the smelting profit is still high, with an expected supply surplus in the second half of the year. Although downstream consumption shows some resilience, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, leading to a trend of inventory accumulation, which may suppress zinc prices [3] Key Data Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$5.61 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 30 yuan to 22,150 yuan per ton, with a stable premium of 30 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price fell by 30 yuan to 22,080 yuan per ton, with a stable premium of -40 yuan per ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price declined by 30 yuan to 22,110 yuan per ton, with a stable premium of -10 yuan per ton [1] Futures Market - On July 15, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,110 yuan per ton and closed at 22,085 yuan per ton, down 120 yuan per ton. Trading volume was 119,038 lots, a decrease of 17,102 lots from the previous day, and the position was 84,304 lots, a reduction of 9,873 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,040 - 22,195 yuan per ton [1] Inventory - As of July 14, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 93,100 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the previous week. As of July 15, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 118,600 tons, up 5,200 tons from the previous day [2] Market Analysis - In the spot market, the decline in absolute prices fails to stimulate restocking. The supply is sufficient, and the spot premium is stable. The import ore TC is rising, and smelting profits are high, with an expected supply surplus in the second half of the year. Smelters have sufficient raw material inventory and low procurement enthusiasm. Although downstream consumption shows resilience, it cannot offset the high - growth supply, leading to inventory accumulation, which may suppress zinc prices [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]