Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products" dated October 16, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - Palm oil: Limited drivers from the origin, continue to hold the reverse spread [2][4] - Soybean oil: Range-bound, pay attention to Sino-US economic and trade relations [2][4] - Soybean meal: Technical trading, oscillating [2] - Soybean: Stronger oscillation [2] - Corn: Pay attention to the listing of new grain [2] - Sugar: Narrow consolidation [2] - Cotton: Expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term [2] - Eggs: Oscillating [2] - Pigs: The second - fattening logic leads to a downward shift in expectations [2] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract was 9,322 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.09% and no change at night. Trading volume decreased by 77,751 lots, and positions increased by 2,263 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 9,200 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 increased by 16.2% compared to the same period last month. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15% [5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [9] Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the soybean oil main contract was 8,252 yuan/ton, up 0.15% during the day and down 0.22% at night. Trading volume decreased by 52,905 lots, and positions increased by 3,429 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,590 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [5] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [9] Soybean Meal - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the DCE soybean meal 2601 contract was 2,917 yuan/ton, up 0.17% during the day and 0.10% at night. The spot price in Shandong was 2,960 - 2,980 yuan/ton, with stable or +10 yuan/ton changes. The trading volume was 110,000 tons, and the inventory was 1.0467 million tons [10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [12] Soybean - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the DCE soybean 2601 contract was 3,999 yuan/ton, up 0.76% during the day and 0.70% at night [10] - **Trend Intensity**: +1 [12] Corn - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the C2601 contract was 2,127 yuan/ton, up 1.05% during the day and 0.24% at night. The trading volume decreased by 61,849 lots, and positions increased by 33,636 lots. The spot price in Guangdong Shekou was 2,340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The northern corn bulk shipping port price decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton [13][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [17] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 15.67 cents/pound, down 0.2 cents. The domestic 24/25 and 25/26 sugar production, consumption, and import volume were estimated. The global 25/26 sugar supply is expected to be in a shortage of 230,000 tons [19][20][21] - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [22] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the CF2601 contract was 13,270 yuan/ton, up 0.04% during the day and down 0.08% at night. The spot price of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,407 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. Cotton spot trading was average, and spinning mills maintained rigid demand procurement [24][25] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [28] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract was 3,204 yuan/500kg, down 0.87%. The spot price in Liaoning was 2.80 yuan/jin, unchanged [29] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [29] Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The spot price in Henan was 11,130 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The closing price of the pig 2601 contract was 12,195 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton. Guizhou Zhenfeng Fuyuan registered 21 lots of warehouse receipts [32][33] - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [34] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of Liaoning 308 general goods was 8,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The closing price of the PK601 contract was 8,062 yuan/ton, up 0.57%. Rainy weather affected the peanut harvest and listing in many producing areas [36][37] - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [39]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of soybean meal 2601, soybean oil 2601, and palm oil 2601 are all "oscillating weakly" [6]. - The market sentiment of the soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures is unstable, and the prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations, including potential tariff increases and negotiation uncertainties, combined with the contradiction between high near - month inventory and expected far - month supply gaps in the domestic market, have weakened the support for the futures price of the soybean meal 2601 contract. The market sentiment is volatile, leading to a short - term weakly oscillating price [5]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The continuous downward pressure on international oil prices has an overflow effect on the oil market. Meanwhile, the weakening of the palm oil industry chain exerts significant pressure on the market. The possible increase in Indonesia's palm oil export tax may affect market sentiment. Until the market sentiment recovers, the palm oil futures price will oscillate weakly [7]. - **Key Factors**: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Oil (not separately detailed in the text but included in the table) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago futures market for corn, wheat, and soybeans showed mixed price movements on October 15, with corn prices rising while wheat prices fell, and soybean prices remained stable [1]. Group 1: Price Movements - The most actively traded December corn contract closed at $4.17 per bushel, up 3.75 cents or 0.91% from the previous trading day [1]. - The December wheat contract closed at $4.99 per bushel, down 1.5 cents or 0.3% from the previous trading day [1]. - The November soybean contract remained unchanged at $10.07 per bushel compared to the previous trading day [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Corn prices have surpassed the 50-day moving average, prompting short covering [1]. - Strong yields have led farmers to be willing to sell corn and soybeans [1]. - The market is currently influenced by the need for funds to cover per-acre income, November rent, seed, and fertilizer costs [1]. Group 3: Market Outlook - A tug-of-war between bulls and bears is ongoing, with December corn futures dipping below $4.10 [1]. - The soybean market is supported by soybean oil [1]. - Global wheat-exporting countries are competing for trade demand and are willing to lower prices [1]. - A rebound in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures prices is possible, but bearish trends are expected due to the proximity of Brazil's new soybean harvest and limited U.S. soybean exports to China [1]. Group 4: Soybean Processing Data - The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported a record soybean processing volume of 197.9 million pounds in September, with soybean oil stocks remaining stable at 1.243 billion pounds [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal rebounded at a low level, but the increase was limited. The arrival of imported soybeans was concentrated, and the supply of soybean meal was sufficient. The price of soybean meal was still under pressure and might continue to fluctuate at a low level [1]. - Peanuts have risen sharply recently and are showing strong momentum. Due to the impact of rainy weather in the main producing areas, the listing of new peanuts has been slow, and the bullish speculation sentiment has increased. The short - term strength is expected to continue [1]. - The rebound of hog and egg futures prices was limited. Due to the high inventory of hogs and laying hens, there was still pressure on the supply side, which restricted the rebound space of futures prices, and they might continue to operate weakly in the future [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - The soybean meal rebounded at a low level, but the supply was abundant, and the price might continue to fluctuate at a low level. Peanuts rose sharply due to the slow listing of new peanuts in the main producing areas. The rebound of hog and egg futures prices was limited due to high inventory [1]. II. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Soybean Meal: Low - level Rebound - Focus: The rebound of soybean meal was limited by abundant supply. In September 2025, China imported 12.87 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. The arrival of imported soybeans in October was still sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory might continue to rise. The aquaculture of rapeseed meal entered the off - season, and the downstream pick - up basically stopped. The main 2601 contract of soybean meal was technically weak, and the strategy was to hold a small short position. The support level was 2400, and the resistance level was 2950 [2]. (2) Peanuts: Strong Rise - Focus: The main 2601 contract of peanuts rose strongly, reaching a two - and - a - half - month high. Due to the influence of rainfall in the main producing areas such as Henan, the listing of new peanuts was slow, and the supply was limited, which boosted the bullish sentiment. The main 2601 contract was technically strong, and the strategy was to hold a small long position. The support level was 8000, and the resistance level was 8100 [3]. (3) Palm Oil: Oscillating Downward - Focus: The main 2601 contract of palm oil continued to oscillate downward, but the decline was limited. India's palm oil imports in September decreased by 16.31% month - on - month, while Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first half of October increased by 12.3% month - on - month. Malaysia lowered its reference price for palm oil in November. The price of palm oil was affected by multiple factors and oscillated at a low level. The strategy was short - term trading. The support level was 9252, and the resistance level was 9396 [5]. (4) Hogs: Oscillating with a Negative Close, Rebound Limited - Focus: The main 2601 contract of hogs first rose and then fell, and the rebound was limited. The supply of hogs was abundant in October, and the pork consumption entered the off - season. The main 2601 contract was technically weak, and the strategy was to hold a small short position. The support level was 12085, and the resistance level was 12400 [7]. (5) Corn: Low - level Rebound - Focus: The main 2601 contract of corn rebounded at a low level. The new corn harvest increased the supply, but the purchase of some grain depots and the bad weather provided support. Some short - sellers took profits at a low level, and the technical buying increased to promote the rebound. The strategy was to close the short position. The support level was 2100, and the resistance level was 2140 [9]. (6) Eggs: Rebound Limited - Focus: The main 2512 contract of eggs had limited rebound. The laying hen inventory was at a historical high, and the supply was loose. The strategy was short - term trading. The support level was 3000, and the resistance level was 3050 [12]. (7) Cotton: Oscillating with a Negative Close, Low - level Fluctuation - Focus: The main 2601 contract of cotton oscillated at a low level. The supply of new cotton in Xinjiang increased, while the downstream demand was weak, and the national commercial cotton inventory rose to 115.54 million tons. The contract was technically weak, and the strategy was short - term trading. The support level was 13200, and the resistance level was 13350 [13][15]. (8) Sugar: Low - level Fluctuation - Focus: The main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated at a low level after a sharp decline. The sugar production in Brazil was at a historical high, and there were expectations of increased production in India and Thailand. The domestic sugar supply was abundant, and the consumption entered the off - season. The contract was technically weak, and the strategy was to hold a small short position. The support level was 5382, and the resistance level was 5432 [16]. (9) Apples: High - level Narrow - range Fluctuation - Focus: The main 2601 contract of apples continued to fluctuate in a narrow range at a high level. The late - maturing Fuji apples were postponed due to the weather, but the western producing areas were more active. The contract was technically strong, and the strategy was to hold a small long position. The support level was 8630, and the resistance level was 870 [18]. (10) Red Dates: Narrow - range Oscillation - Focus: The main 2601 contract of red dates continued to oscillate in a narrow range. The new dates in Xinjiang were harvested earlier than last year, and the domestic old - date inventory was still much higher than last year. The strategy was to hold a small long position. The support level was 11020, and the resistance level was 11200 [20].

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and interest changes of cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts are presented, including CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 [3]. - Spot prices of various cotton and cotton yarn products are provided, such as CCIndex3128B, Cot A, FC Index, etc., along with their price changes [3]. - Price differences between different contracts (inter - period spreads), between cotton and cotton yarn (inter - variety spreads), and between domestic and foreign markets are shown [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps' First Division in Alar has 2 million mu of cotton entering the picking and purchasing peak season, and a meeting was held to promote the orderly, fair, and efficient operation of seed - cotton purchasing [6]. - The pre - sale price of new cotton for the 2025/26 season is temporarily stable, with the pre - sale basis of machine - picked cotton in Aksu region around CF01 + 900 [6]. - In September 2025, the textile and clothing export volume was $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.45%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was $221.686 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.33% [6]. Trading Logic - During the festival, the market focus shifted to the opening price of new cotton. This year, Xinjiang's cotton output is high and ginneries' purchasing enthusiasm is average, with no large - scale rush to purchase. As new cotton is abundantly listed, there may be selling hedging pressure on the futures market [7]. - The peak season demand in the market is average, and the improvement in downstream demand is limited, so the peak season performance this year is not expected to be outstanding, and its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [7]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be volatile, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weak volatile trend [8]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Affected by factors such as the easing of Sino - US relations, lower - than - expected new cotton output, and poor quality of some new cotton, the decline of Zhengzhou cotton has slowed down. Pure - cotton yarn prices remained stable overall, with some manufacturers' quotes still slightly decreasing, and the actual transaction center of gravity gradually declined [9]. - The demand peak season in the pure - cotton fabric market is not prosperous, with a weak trading atmosphere and prices being stable but slightly weak. Weaving mills' orders are mostly small and scattered, and they hope to receive spring - summer order sampling work in November [11]. Group 3: Options - Information on cotton options, including option contract names, underlying contract prices, closing prices, price change percentages, implied volatility (IV), Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta, theoretical leverage, and actual leverage, is provided [13]. - The 120 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton is 8.4519, with a slight decrease compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 are 9.3%, 10.9%, and 13.9% respectively [13]. - The PCR of the main contract's open interest is 0.7661, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume is 0.8549. The trading volumes of both call and put options have increased [14]. - Option strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [15]. Group 4: Related Attachments - Multiple charts are presented, including the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton markets under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, and the price difference between cotton yarn and cotton contracts (CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01) [16][18][24].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillatory rebound [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillatory [1] - Oil: Upward [1] - Eggs: Oscillatory [1] - Pork: Oscillatory [2] Core Views - Corn prices are expected to rebound after a decline due to the release of the pressure of a bumper harvest and the emergence of farmers' reluctance to sell. Soybean meal is affected by uncertainties in US soybean demand and domestic supply, showing an oscillatory weak trend. Oil has short - term pressure but a long - term positive outlook. Egg futures rebounded from the bottom, while the supply pressure of eggs is large. Pork prices continue to be weak [1][2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Corn**: On Tuesday, the November corn contract fell and then closed slightly up, breaking through the 2100 - yuan integer mark. The spot price continued to decline, with the domestic average price at 2220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The price in the Northeast was weak, and the price in North ports and the marketing areas also declined. Technically, the sharp decline of the November contract released the pressure of a bumper harvest. With the cooling weather in the Northeast, farmers' reluctance to sell increased, and the futures price showed a stable performance at a low level [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to uncertainties in US soybean demand. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to increase. Domestically, protein meal declined, and soybean meal fell below 2900 yuan/ton. Macro uncertainties, abundant domestic spot supply, and sufficient soybean arrivals in the fourth quarter suppress the market, with an oscillatory weak strategy [1]. - **Oil**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil fell for the third consecutive day. High - frequency data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil increased from October 1 - 10. Domestically, the three major vegetable oils declined. The short - term pressure exists, but the long - term trend is positive, with a strategy of buying on dips [1]. - **Eggs**: On Tuesday, egg futures rebounded from the bottom, with the main 2511 contract rising 1.57% to 2852 yuan/500 kilograms. The supply of eggs is normal, and the digestion speed in most areas is average. There are no new positive factors in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Pork**: On Tuesday, pork futures closed slightly up in an oscillatory manner. The spot price continued to decline, with the national average price of ternary live pigs at 10.81 yuan/kg. The daily slaughter volume increased, and the futures price was dragged down by the spot price [2]. Market Information - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for November to 4262.23 ringgit per ton (1008.1 US dollars), while keeping the export tariff at 10% [2]. - Indonesia may regulate crude palm oil exports to ensure domestic supply for biodiesel production. The plan to increase to B50 in the second half of 2026 may reduce global edible oil supply [3]. - During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's annual grain purchase volume exceeded 400 million tons, with abundant grain reserves and a stable market [3]. - China urges the US to correct wrong practices, show sincerity in negotiations, and promote the healthy development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [4]. Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products such as corn, soybean meal, oil, eggs, and pork, including 1 - 5 spreads and basis, with data sourced from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [5][6][7][11][13][14][15][17][19][23][25] Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - The team includes Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst; and Kong Hailan, a researcher in the egg and pork industries. They have rich experience and many honors [27]

Market Review - On Tuesday evening, soybean meal futures for the 2601 contract rose by 0.1%, closing at 2915 CNY/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - As of October 12, the European Commission reported that soybean imports for the 2025/26 season reached 3.41 million tons, a decrease of 7.3% compared to the same period last year. Soybean meal imports remained stable at 5.09 million tons year-on-year [2] - For the week ending October 10, the weekly delivery volume of soybean meal was 1.4619 million tons, a slight increase of 17,200 tons week-on-week, and an increase of 310,800 tons year-on-year, indicating a relatively high level in recent years [2] - According to foreign media, the Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) expects Brazil's soybean exports in October to reach 7.31 million tons, up from the previous week's estimate of 7.12 million tons. Soybean meal exports are projected at 2.06 million tons, higher than the previous week's estimate of 1.92 million tons [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guoxin Guozheng Futures noted that high levels of imported soybeans and the anticipated early arrival of Brazilian soybeans could alleviate concerns about future soybean supply shortages. Currently, there is insufficient upward momentum in the soybean meal futures market, and attention should be paid to developments in China-U.S. trade tensions and soybean arrival volumes [3] - Donghai Futures indicated that post-National Day, market sentiment improved due to downstream replenishment, but poor delivery performance has kept oil mill inventories under significant pressure. Additionally, soybean imports in the fourth quarter are expected to remain ample, making it difficult for the soybean meal 01 contract to see significant rebounds in low basis levels. If there is a lack of direction from U.S. soybeans, soybean meal may continue to experience low-level fluctuations [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] Core Views - Cotton: The new - year global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose, with increased short - term supply pressure and demand - side pressure. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, but the purchase price has stabilized, limiting the downward space of cotton prices [2] - Sugar: Brazilian sugar supply is strong in the short term, suppressing the raw sugar futures price. In China, the typhoon has affected sugarcane production, adding uncertainty to the new - season sugar output, and the macro - sentiment may increase market volatility [5][6] - Pulp: The global pulp supply is under pressure, and the domestic supply pattern is still loose. The weak demand, especially in China, is the core factor suppressing pulp prices. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,265 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton (- 0.26%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,598 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,755 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [1] - Market Info: Pakistan's cotton harvest is accelerating, with an expected total output of 930,000 - 1,008,000 tons, and the new cottonseed price is falling [1] Market Analysis - Macro: The Sino - US trade war has escalated, and the US federal government shutdown has affected data release. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose [2] - Domestic: Cotton de - stocking is fast, but the ginneries' purchase is cautious. The new cotton purchase price has stabilized, limiting the downward space [2] Strategy - Neutral to bearish. The escalation of the Sino - US trade war and the new - year production increase expectation suppress the cotton price, and the demand support is insufficient [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5397 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan/ton (- 1.33%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5780 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [4] - Market Info: Brazil exported 1.8014 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of October, a 9.45% increase from last year [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The sugar production in Brazil increased significantly in the first half of September, suppressing the raw sugar price, but there is support from the ethanol price [5] - Zheng sugar: The domestic peak - season sales are poor, and the supply is sufficient in the short term. The typhoon has affected sugarcane production in some areas [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. The typhoon - affected sugarcane production adds uncertainty to the new - season sugar output, but the macro - sentiment may increase market volatility [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 4846 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+ 0.08%) from the previous day [7] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4955 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [7] - Market Info: The import wood pulp spot price was mostly stable, with some increases [7] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual transactions were poor in September. The domestic port inventory is high, and the supply pattern is still loose [8] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is the core factor suppressing pulp prices. The downstream paper mills' procurement is cautious [8] Strategy - Neutral. The macro - situation is bearish, and the pulp fundamentals are not improving. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Corn and Starch**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Hogs**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate; 20 - rubber is expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate [14]. - **Cotton**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. - **Sugar**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **Pulp**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [20]. - **Offset Paper**: Expected to fluctuate [21]. - **Logs**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [23]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products, including supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and policy impacts. Overall, most agricultural products are expected to face a situation of weak fluctuations in the short - to - medium term, with a few showing potential for long - term improvement [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Due to factors such as the smooth progress of Brazilian soybean planting, the "shutdown" of the US government affecting data updates, and changes in Indonesian biodiesel policies, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. The domestic soybean oil inventory may peak and decline, while palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory, and rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decrease [5]. - **Protein Meal**: The current supply pressure is dominant. With the smooth progress of US soybean harvesting, poor export prospects, and rapid sowing in South America, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. The domestic supply of soybean meal is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the consumption demand is expected to be stable or slightly increase [6]. - **Corn and Starch**: New grain sales pressure is coming, and the futures and spot prices continue to decline. In the short term, the new grain harvest pressure needs to be resolved, and there is a risk of a short - term rebound due to tight inventory. In the long term, the corn market is expected to be in a pattern of short - term weakness and long - term strength [7]. - **Hogs**: After continuous price declines, farmers resist price cuts, and a small amount of second - fattening has entered the market. Supply is abundant in the short - term, and the demand is in the off - season after the National Day. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy is implemented, the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: Due to weak fundamentals and the impact of the overall commodity atmosphere, the price center has moved down slightly. The macro factor accounts for a large proportion, and it is recommended to wait and see. It is expected to maintain a fluctuating bottom - seeking trend [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market sentiment is weak, the cost side is weakening, and the overall production this year is high, resulting in high inventory. It is expected to maintain a fluctuating bottom - grinding trend, and there is a possibility of hitting a new low for the year [14]. - **Cotton**: Based on the expectation of a large increase in production in the new season, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Before the large - increase production expectation is disproven, the operation idea is to short on rebounds [15]. - **Sugar**: In October, Brazil's sugar exports increased significantly, and both domestic and international sugar prices declined. In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply situation, and the sugar price is expected to continue to decline [18]. - **Pulp**: In the short term, the futures price is sideways, and the spot price has increased. The main reason is the large virtual - to - real ratio of the 01 contract. Fundamentally, there are more negative factors, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [20]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and there is pressure to lower prices in the tender [21]. - **Logs**: The delivery side is negative, and the futures price is in a weak state. The demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [23]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists various agricultural product varieties, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but specific data monitoring details are not provided in the text [25][45][58]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Composite Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including the Commodity 20 Index and the Industrial Products Index), and sector index (Agricultural Products Index) are presented. The Agricultural Products Index increased by 0.06% on October 14, 2025, decreased by 1.81% in the past 5 days, decreased by 5.08% in the past month, and decreased by 3.22% since the beginning of the year [182][184].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of agricultural futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on October 14, with most contracts closing higher, except for soybean futures which experienced a slight decline [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures fell by 0.15%, closing at 1006.25 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures increased by 0.61%, closing at 413.25 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures rose by 0.70%, closing at 500.25 cents per bushel [1]