Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the marginal changes in the "heat" (attention) of broad-based indices. By identifying the index with the highest weekly heat change rate, the strategy rotates into that index. If the "Other" group (stocks not included in the four main indices) has the highest heat change rate, the strategy remains in cash[7][13]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the weekly heat change rate for the components of four major indices (CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000) and the "Other" group. 2. Smooth the weekly heat change rate using a 2-week moving average (MA2). 3. At the end of each week, invest in the index with the highest MA2 heat change rate. If the "Other" group has the highest rate, remain in cash[13][16]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates a clear logic of leveraging market sentiment shifts to generate returns[13]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 8.74% since 2017[16] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.5%[16] - **2025 YTD Return**: 20.9%[16] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Total Heat Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: The total heat indicator aggregates the attention metrics (e.g., browsing, watchlist additions, and clicks) of individual stocks. It is normalized as a percentage of the total market and scaled by 10,000. This indicator serves as a proxy for market sentiment[7]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Aggregate the browsing, watchlist, and click counts for each stock. 2. Normalize the aggregated value as a percentage of the total market. 3. Multiply the normalized value by 10,000 to obtain the total heat indicator, with a range of [0, 10,000][7]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures market sentiment and can be used to identify mispricing due to overreaction or underreaction[7]. 2. Factor Name: Weekly Heat Change Rate (MA2) - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the weekly change in the total heat indicator, smoothed using a 2-week moving average. It reflects short-term sentiment dynamics[13][20]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the weekly change rate of the total heat indicator for each stock. 2. Smooth the weekly change rate using a 2-week moving average (MA2)[13][20]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is useful for identifying short-term sentiment-driven opportunities in broad-based indices, industries, and concepts[13][20]. 3. Factor Name: Concept Heat Ranking - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor ranks concepts based on their weekly heat change rates. It identifies the top and bottom concepts for constructing portfolios[28][31]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Rank concepts by their weekly heat change rates. 2. Select the top 5 concepts with the highest heat change rates. 3. Construct two portfolios: - **TOP Portfolio**: Select the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat within each of the top 5 concepts. - **BOTTOM Portfolio**: Select the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat within each of the top 5 concepts[31]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor captures the behavioral tendencies of investors, leveraging the rapid price adjustments in high-attention stocks[28][31]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Total Heat Indicator - **No specific backtesting results provided** 2. Weekly Heat Change Rate (MA2) - **No specific backtesting results provided** 3. Concept Heat Ranking - **BOTTOM Portfolio Annualized Return**: 15.71%[33] - **BOTTOM Portfolio Maximum Drawdown**: 28.89%[33] - **2025 YTD Return for BOTTOM Portfolio**: 29.2%[33]

Event and Commentary - The overall dividend performance has shown significant differentiation this year, with most dividend assets in the A-share market underperforming the broader market in the first half of the year, particularly concentrated in the banking sector, which rose by 13.1% while the CSI Dividend Index fell by 3.1% [1] - Following the "anti-involution" policy introduced by the Central Financial Committee and subsequent government plans to stimulate growth in key industries, commodity prices have surged since late June, leading to a notable recovery in industry sentiment and strong performance in high-dividend sectors related to the cycle [1][4] - Historical trends indicate that dividend strategies tend to outperform the market from November to April, primarily due to increased risk aversion and pre-emptive positioning for dividend announcements [1] Core Views - There is a clear differentiation in dividend assets this year, with recent policies favoring cyclical resources [3] - The banking sector has seen a significant rise, with the banking index increasing by 19.5% as of July 10, driven by valuation increases, while other high-dividend sectors have generally declined [3][4] - The decline in the banking sector's dividend yield is attributed to a significant drop in the rolling cumulative dividend amount over the past 12 months, although this decline is expected to stabilize [6] Market Environment - The macroeconomic environment remains supportive for high-dividend equity assets, with a continuation of low interest rates and expected inflows of incremental capital into the market [2][7] - The dividend payout ratio in the A-share market still has room for improvement, and there is potential for structural expansion in dividend assets beyond the banking sector, including insurance, coal, steel, and construction [2][7] Hong Kong Market Insights - Hong Kong dividend assets exhibit a higher dividend yield compared to A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index showing a 3.1% yield and the Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend Index at 5.6% [8] - The tax advantages of investing in Hong Kong through the Stock Connect program are expected to enhance trading activity and attract more investors [8] Key Products - Dividend Quality ETF (159758) tracks the CSI Dividend Quality Index, focusing on companies with high dividend payment rates and profitability [9] - Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) reflects the performance of companies with high and stable free cash flow levels [9] - Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (513910) targets high-dividend central enterprises within the Hong Kong market [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - share mid - year report performance pre - announcements show a sequential improvement but a slight year - on - year decline. Industry differentiation is significant, with non - bank finance and non - ferrous metals leading, while the real estate industry chain is under pressure [3]. - The market is mainly trading on the "anti - involution" policy expectations. The July Politburo meeting is yet to be held, and the market is concerned about the policy focus in the second - half economic work [3]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that China - US economic and trade officials will conduct the third round of trade consultations in Stockholm, Sweden. - The liquidity is relatively abundant, with the A - share margin trading balance increasing and the trading volume rising. The short - term upward speed of the stock index may slow down, showing a volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Their Driving Forces** - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: Neutral. As of July 21, about 28.6% of A - share companies (1547) disclosed their 2025 mid - year report pre - announcements, with a pre - joy rate of 43.7%. Non - bank finance and non - ferrous metals have strong performance expectations, while the real estate industry chain is sluggish [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Neutral - bullish. The market is highly concerned about whether the upcoming policies signal a new round of supply - side reform. The July Politburo meeting is awaited for policy focus [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: Neutral. The US Treasury Secretary announced China - US trade consultations [3]. - **Liquidity**: Bullish. The A - share margin trading balance increased, and the trading volume rose [3]. - **Investment Views and Trading Strategies** - **Investment View**: Adjust and go long. The short - term upward speed of the stock index may slow down due to the ebb of hot topics [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Adjust and go long. Risk concerns include domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.69% to 4127.2; the SSE 50 rose 1.12% to 2795.5; the CSI 500 rose 3.28% to 6299.6; the CSI 1000 rose 2.36% to 6706.6 [5]. - **Industry Index Performance**: In the Shenwan Primary Industry Index, building materials (8.2%), steel (7.7%), non - ferrous metals (6.7%), building decoration (5.6%), and real estate (4.1%) led the gains last week, while only banking (- 2.9%), communication (- 0.8%), and public utilities (- 0.3%) declined [9]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of some stock index futures changed. For example, the trading volume of CSI 300 futures increased by 3.80%, and the open interest increased by 2.76% [13]. - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of July 25, the annualized discounts and premiums of different contracts of various stock index futures varied [15]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: The CSI 300 - SSE 50 spread was at the 86.1% historical quantile level, and the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 spread was at the 61.7% historical quantile level [19]. 3.3 Part Three: Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 1656.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, along with 400 billion yuan of MLF and 100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations. The net investment for the whole week was 10.95 billion yuan [26]. - **Market Liquidity Indicators**: As of July 24, the A - share margin trading balance was 1935.73 billion yuan, an increase of 39.32 billion yuan from the previous week. The margin trading volume accounted for 11.3% of the total market trading volume, at the 96.4% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 277.84 billion yuan compared with the previous week [32]. 3.4 Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamental and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In June 2025, China's GDP growth rate was 5.2%, industrial added value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and other economic indicators showed different trends [35]. - **Industry - specific Economic Data**: The real estate industry showed a decline in investment, while the manufacturing and consumer industries had their own characteristics. For example, the manufacturing industry maintained a certain growth rate, and the consumer industry had different performances in various sub - sectors [35][38][39]. - **PMI Data**: In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5, showing marginal improvements in some sub - indicators [42]. - **Earnings Indicators of Major Broad - based Indexes**: The year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders and ROE of major broad - based indexes varied [47]. - **Financial Data of Shenwan Primary Industry Index**: The profitability of different industries in the Shenwan Primary Industry Index showed significant differences, with some industries having high growth rates and others in decline [48]. 3.5 Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Drive - **Recent Macro - policy Trends**: A series of meetings and policies have been introduced, including the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting emphasizing the governance of low - price and disorderly competition, and the Central Urban Work Conference focusing on urban development transformation. A package of financial policies has also been announced to support the economy [52][53]. 3.6 Part Five: Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In June 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 49%, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8%, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, and the number of new non - farm jobs was 147,000. The PCE and CPI also showed different trends [60][63]. - **Trump Team's Statements and Actions**: Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have had a certain impact on international trade relations. There have also been legal disputes over tariff policies [69][71][73]. 3.7 Part Six: Stock Index Influence Factors - Valuation - As of July 25, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 13.5 times, 11.4 times, 30.7 times, and 41.3 times respectively, at the 73.7%, 81.5%, 71.6%, and 63.9% quantile levels in the past decade [76].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.17% today, with a trading volume of 841.35 million shares and a transaction value of 1,138.73 billion yuan, an increase of 1.39% compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included Non-Bank Financials (up 1.11%), Defense and Military (up 1.04%), and Pharmaceutical and Biological (up 0.88%) [1]. - The sectors with the largest declines were Coal (down 2.46%), Steel (down 1.84%), and Beauty and Personal Care (down 1.59%) [2]. Detailed Industry Data - Non-Bank Financials: - Change: +1.11% - Transaction Value: 647.20 billion yuan (up 11.70%) - Leading Stock: Zhongyin Securities (up 6.61%) [1] - Defense and Military: - Change: +1.04% - Transaction Value: 496.34 billion yuan (up 57.68%) - Leading Stock: Xinguang Optoelectronics (up 13.27%) [1] - Pharmaceutical and Biological: - Change: +0.88% - Transaction Value: 986.89 billion yuan (down 13.87%) - Leading Stock: Erkang Pharmaceutical (up 14.89%) [1] - Coal: - Change: -2.46% - Transaction Value: 95.76 billion yuan (down 14.49%) - Leading Stock: Shanxi Coking Coal (down 6.18%) [2] - Steel: - Change: -1.84% - Transaction Value: 129.93 billion yuan (down 18.37%) - Leading Stock: Liugang Co. (down 8.58%) [2] - Beauty and Personal Care: - Change: -1.59% - Transaction Value: 52.80 billion yuan (down 7.19%) - Leading Stock: Baiya Co. (down 7.94%) [2]

上交所融资余额报9781.90亿元，较前一交易日增加51.35亿元；深交所融资余额报9494.44亿元，较前一交易日增加3.87亿元；两市合计19276.34亿元，较前 一交易日增加55.22亿元，融资交易额3601.02亿元，占A股成交额20.15%，其中融资买入额1828.12亿元，融资偿还额1772.90亿元，交易活跃度下降6.20%。 统计发现，融资客保持连续5日净买入，净买入额分别为152.40亿元、149.55亿元、26.47亿元、60.25亿元、55.22亿元，合计443.90亿元。 融资最新持仓情况 e公司数据统计显示，截至7月25日，融资持仓市值前五行业为电子、非银金融、计算机、医药生物、汽车，占持仓总市值51.55%。 持仓市值较20个交易日前增加幅度前3的行业为有色金属、建筑材料、建筑装饰，增加幅度分别为15.52%、14.37%、11.25%。 持仓市值较20个交易日前减少幅度前1的行业为食品饮料，减少幅度分别为1.64%。 | | | 7月25日融资持仓分布 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业名称 | 持仓比例 | | 持仓市值 | ...

[Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑装饰 ◼ 本周（2025.7.21–2025.7.25，下同）：本周建筑装饰板块（SW）涨跌幅 5.62%，同期沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为 1.69%、2.21%，超 额收益分别为 3.93%、3.41%。 建筑装饰行业跟踪周报 ◼ 行业重要政策、事件变化、数据跟踪点评： 重点工程开工带动基建投资预期升温，推荐 关注低估值建筑央企 增持（维持） （1）今年 7350 亿元中央预算内投资基本下达完毕： 截至 7 月 24 日， 今年 7350 亿元中央预算内投资已基本下达完毕，重点支持现代化产业 体系、现代化基础设施体系、新型城镇化和乡村全面振兴、区域协调发 展和对外开放、绿色发展、社会民生、国家安全体系和能力现代化、灾 后应急恢复等领域项目建设。财政发力前置后实物工作量有望加速落 地，关注三四季度实物需求企稳情况以及增量政策工具出台节奏。 （2）上半年重点领域信贷保持较快增长，基础设施业中长期贷款余额 同比增长 7.4%，上半年增加 2.18 万亿元：新增贷款主要投向制造业、 基础设施业等领域。6 ...

| 代码 | 最新融资 | 较上一日增减（亿元） | 环比增幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 余额（亿元） | | | | 非银金融 | 1635.64 | 15.77 | 0.97 | | 医药生物 | 1390.44 | 7.59 | 0.55 | | 建筑装饰 | 353.25 | 6.23 | 1.79 | | 食品饮料 | 508.81 | 5.77 | 1.15 | | 电子 | 2200.22 | 5.68 | 0.26 | | 计算机 | 1494.43 | 5.65 | 0.38 | | 汽车 | 1009.15 | 5.25 | 0.52 | | 交通运输 | 348.69 | 4.26 | 1.24 | | 家用电器 | 270.36 | 3.21 | 1.20 | | 银行 | 608.64 | 3.11 | 0.51 | | 有色金属 | 888.96 | 2.54 | 0.29 | | 电力设备 | 1400.40 | 1.55 | 0.11 | | 传媒 | 419.18 | 1.53 | 0.37 | | 机械设备 | 1018.69 | ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the real estate index has shown a zigzag pattern of excess returns over the past year, characterized by short cycles, high volatility, and strong policy correlation. The average excess return during the last six upward waves reached 13%, lasting an average of 18 days [2][28][29] - It is suggested that if the upcoming political bureau meeting or related policies signal more aggressive real estate stimulus, the real estate index may initiate a new round of upward movement. However, the long-term outlook remains dependent on the stabilization of the fundamental market conditions [2][28][29] - Key themes identified include the push for orderly exit of backward production capacity to achieve high-quality development, significant investment in the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, and the high demand in the AIDC sector driven by policy [2][28][29] Group 2 - The report indicates that the domestic fiscal situation showed a slight decline in June, but land transaction recovery has led to an increase in government fund income. The overall fiscal revenue remained flat year-on-year, while tax revenue showed a positive trend [4][32] - Internationally, ongoing ceasefire negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East are being monitored, with significant political figures expressing their views on interest rate policies [4][32] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a cautious approach in the current market environment, as the market may experience overheating and increased volatility following recent highs [4][32] Group 3 - The report on the bond market suggests that the current "triple concerns" may be alleviating, with marginal improvements in the fundamentals and policy expectations boosting market sentiment. The bond market is expected to stabilize as the central bank's supportive stance continues [10][12] - It is noted that the bond market's rapid adjustment phase may be nearing its end, with the long-end interest rates expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.8%, indicating potential value in allocations above 1.75% [10][12] - The report also highlights the need for ongoing observation of policy outcomes from the upcoming political bureau meeting and changes in funding and deposit pricing [10][12] Group 4 - The report on the construction materials sector indicates that signs of stabilization in the real estate chain are emerging, with non-traditional building materials showing higher demand. The focus is on structural optimization and growth opportunities [21][22] - Recommendations include investing in cement companies benefiting from policy-driven capacity recovery, consumer building materials with strong growth potential, and fiberglass companies anticipating significant demand increases [21][22] - The report also mentions the potential for explosive growth in the civil explosives market driven by coal mining activities in Xinjiang [21][22]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a day of fluctuation with the Sci-Tech 50 index showing resilience, closing at 1054.20, up 2.07% [1] - Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index saw slight declines of 0.33%, 0.22%, and 0.23% respectively [1][3] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Electronics (1.37%), Computers (1.26%), and Real Estate (0.63%), while the worst performers were Construction Decoration (-2.06%) and Food & Beverage (-1.65%) [2] - Concept indices such as Sora Concept (2.98%) and Photolithography (2.79%) performed well, whereas sectors like Hainan Free Trade Zone (-3.77%) and Pumped Storage (-2.55%) lagged [2][3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile, with a cautious bullish outlook as the overall market momentum is still strong, particularly around the 3600-point mark [5] - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong mid-year performance expectations, particularly Machinery, Consumer Goods, TMT, and Financials [5] AI Sector Insights - The AI sector is witnessing a rebound, particularly in AI application stocks, with a projected global market size for AI video generation expected to grow from $615 million in 2024 to $717 million in 2025, reflecting a 17% year-on-year increase [4] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for AI video generation from 2025 to 2032 is estimated at 20%, indicating strong future demand [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - North - Exchange convertible bonds have certain special features in terms of clause settings and transfer transactions, with relatively low overall issuance scale. In the current policy environment encouraging mergers and acquisitions, private placement convertible bonds may become an important tool for North - Exchange listed companies to introduce strategic investors and be widely used as a payment instrument for M&A. With the slowdown of new supply of public convertible bonds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, continuous attention to North - Exchange related investment opportunities is recommended [2][13]. - Considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure of convertible bonds is expected to be low. As the stock market recovers, the return of incremental funds in convertible bonds drives the valuation to a relatively high historical level, and attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. In terms of clauses, continue to focus on the space for lower - revision games, be vigilant against call risks, and appropriately focus on short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds. Industries to focus on include popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, central state - owned enterprises under the Chinese characteristic valuation system, and the military industry [16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1.转债周度专题与展望 3.1.1. 北交所转债怎么看？ - As of July 25, there were 5 convertible bond proposals on the North - Exchange. The current proposals are all private placement convertible bonds with an issuance scale within 150 million yuan. North - Exchange private placement convertible bonds usually do not have a "downward revision clause", suspend transfer 10 trading days before the end of the conversion period, have a clear 18 - month conversion restriction requirement, and a non - call period of at least 6 months [1][10]. - Taking the private placement convertible bonds of Youji Co., Ltd. as an example, it has obvious features in the initial conversion price, conditional call clause, non - downward revision clause, and put period. Other clauses are relatively conventional, with an issuance term of 6 years and a put trigger threshold of 70% [11][13]. 3.1.2. 周度回顾与市场展望 - This week, the three major stock indices fluctuated upward, with active trading and obvious rotation of hot sectors. The A - share market valuation is recovering. Measures such as large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement are expected to boost domestic demand, while export growth may decline. A weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and the capital market is expected to gradually start [14][15]. - In terms of convertible bonds, considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure is expected to be low. As the stock market recovers, the return of incremental funds drives the valuation to a relatively high historical level, and attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. Industries to focus on include popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, central state - owned enterprises under the Chinese characteristic valuation system, and the military industry [16]. 3.2. 转债市场周度跟踪 3.2.1. 权益市场收涨，建材煤炭钢铁领涨 - This week, the major equity market indices rose. The market style was more inclined to small - cap value stocks. Among the 27 Shenwan industry indices, 27 rose and 4 fell. Building materials, coal, and steel industries led the market [19][22]. 3.2.2. 转债市场大涨，百元溢价率中位数抬升 - This week, the convertible bond market rose. The average daily trading volume increased. Most industries in the convertible bond market rose, with coal, building materials, and petroleum and petrochemical industries leading the gains. Only bank convertible bonds fell. Most individual bonds rose. In terms of price, the number of absolute low - price convertible bonds decreased, and the median price increased significantly. The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate decreased [24][31][36]. 3.2.3. 不同类型转债高频跟踪 3.2.3.1. 分类估值变化 - This week, the valuations of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds increased significantly, with a higher increase in balanced convertible bonds. The valuations of convertible bonds with a parity of 0 - 80 yuan and above 130 yuan decreased, while those of other parity convertible bonds increased. The valuations of most convertible bonds of each rating decreased, and the valuations of convertible bonds in each scale category decreased [51]. 3.2.3.2. 市场指数表现 - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings rose. Since 2023, high - rating AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while low - rating convertible bonds have shown weaker anti - decline attributes and greater rebound strength. Convertible bonds of all scales rose this week [62][64]. 3.3. 转债供给与条款跟踪 3.3.1. 本周一级预案发行 - Two new convertible bonds were listed this week, and one was issued but not yet listed. The first - day closing prices of Libo Convertible Bonds and Guanghe Convertible Bonds were 129.46 yuan and 129.80 yuan respectively, with reasonable pricing. The scale of the to - be - listed Bo 25 Convertible Bonds is 2.802 billion yuan. There were 9 first - level approvals this week [69]. 3.3.2. 下修&赎回条款 - This week, 9 convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revision, 9 announced no downward revision, 2 proposed downward revision, and 1 announced the downward - revision result. Thirteen convertible bonds were expected to trigger call, 4 announced no call, and 4 announced early call. As of the end of this week, 3 convertible bonds were still in the put declaration period, and 19 were in the company's capital reduction and settlement declaration period [73][77][79].