Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment is cautious, with coking coal and coke oscillating. Glass and soda ash are oscillating weakly due to the downward shift of cost support [1]. - For silicon - based ferroalloys, the profit in production areas is poor, and ferroalloys are oscillating [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: - Glass futures oscillated downward yesterday. The main 2601 contract dropped 1.5%. Spot sales data was okay, and futures were at a premium to the spot. Factory inventories were fluctuating slightly at a high level, and there were still supply - demand contradictions. Short - term premium on the futures market suppressed prices [1]. - Soda ash futures also oscillated downward. The main 2601 contract dropped 0.47%. The procurement sentiment was cautious, with mainly rigid - demand transactions. Soda ash production was at a high level and new capacity was to be launched in the fourth quarter, and consumption was expected to weaken further. The premium on the futures market also suppressed prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Both glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate weakly [2] Silicon - based Ferroalloys - **Market Analysis**: - Silicomanganese's main contract closed at 5854 yuan/ton yesterday. A major Hebei Steel plant's first - round inquiry price for September silicomanganese was 5800 yuan/ton, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. The cost of manganese ore was firm. Although downstream demand was resilient, supply - demand pressure was high due to high production [3]. - Ferrosilicon's main futures contract closed at 5628 yuan/ton. The market sentiment was average. Ferrosilicon enterprises' production was stable, and the cost had no significant fluctuations. Factory inventories had risen to a high level, suppressing prices. The industry's supply - demand was relatively loose, but production areas were in the red, and production release was relatively restrained [3]. - **Strategy**: Both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [3]

仓单 铁合金早报 现货 盘面 品种 项目 | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁自然块 产区汇总价 | 宁夏#72 | 5250 | -30 | 50 | 5550 | 主力合约 | 5628 | 8 | 108 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5310 | 0 | 60 | 5660 | 01合约 | 5588 | 10 | 104 | | | 青海#72 | 5250 | 0 | 0 | 5580 | 05合约 | 5702 | 20 | 90 | | | 陕西#72 | 5250 | -30 | 50 | 5550 | 09合约 | 5464 | 30 | 120 | | | 陕西#75 | 5950 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | -78 | -38 | -58 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | 5450 | 0 | 0 | | 1-5月差 | -114 | -10 | 14 | | 贸易商价 | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 10, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price trend of coking coal. After the military parade, the logic of steel mill production restrictions gradually disappeared, and a major bearish factor restricting coking coal also faded. On Friday, news of anti - involution emerged again, leading to significant increases in popular varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal. Ferroalloys, which were near the cost line after a decline, also rebounded. The expected decline in ferroalloy production profit means there is limited incentive for further production increases. With the arrival of the flat - water season, the output in the southern silicon - manganese production areas will gradually decline. The term structure of ferroalloys is gradually improving, with some contract structures changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for short - term price increases. However, the term structure of coking coal on the raw material side has not improved, and its contango has deepened. The long - term trading logic lies in the anti - involution expectation. The market still has some momentum, and there are expectations of supply - side contraction. The market's long - short logic is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The widening price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicon - manganese, namely semi - coke and manganese ore, makes it cost - effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. It is recommended to go long on the 01 price difference of the two silicons at - 400. It is also suggested to lightly go long on the ferrosilicon main contract 11 at around 5450 and the silicon - manganese main contract 01 at around 5700. However, if there is no substantial progress in anti - involution, the risk of a sharp fall after a rise is relatively high [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.74%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 34.5% [3] - Silicon - manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.67%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 29.1% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in ferroalloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15% and an entry range of SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is planned based on orders, to prevent rising ferroalloy prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] Core Contradictions - The short - term upward trend of ferroalloys is affected by the price trend of coking coal and anti - involution news. The production profit decline and the flat - water season will lead to a decrease in production. The term structure of ferroalloys is improving, while that of coking coal is not. The long - term trading logic is based on anti - involution expectations, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [4] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: The operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 36.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts are 91,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.76%, and the total inventory is 158,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.47% [6] - **Silicon - manganese**: The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon - manganese industry. South 32 announced its manganese ore quotation for China in October 2025, with South African semi - carbonate manganese ore at $4.1 per ton - degree (+0.05) and Australian manganese ore at $4.5 per ton - degree (+0.05). There are market rumors about changes in the shipping situation of Gabonese ore, with a possible reduction in October, which may affect manganese ore prices and thus the cost of manganese - silicon [6] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: The enterprise inventory of ferrosilicon is 66,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.88%, and the demand from the five major steel products is 20,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43%. Ferrosilicon output is 115,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.68% [7] - **Silicon - manganese**: In the long run, the sluggish real - estate market and the decline of the black - related sector have raised doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon - manganese. The enterprise inventory of silicon - manganese is 160,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.72%, and the demand from the five major steel products is 123,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [7] Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: The report provides daily data on ferrosilicon basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from September 3 to September 10, 2025, including data from different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai [8] - **Silicon - manganese**: The report provides daily data on silicon - manganese basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from September 3 to September 10, 2025, including data from different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou [9][10] Term Structure and Seasonal Charts - The report includes term structure spread charts for ferrosilicon, silicon - manganese, and coking coal, as well as seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and silicon - manganese market prices, basis, and futures spreads [11][12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The steel market is currently in a stalemate with steel products under pressure from supra - seasonal inventory accumulation and limited upward movement in the futures market. The market awaits signals of improved peak - season demand or supply contraction. Iron ore prices are relatively firm due to steel mill复产 and weak coking coal, but there are accumulating risks in the industry chain. The coking coal and coke market has a deteriorating supply - demand balance in the short - term, and the rebound space of coking coal is limited. The ferroalloy market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the glass market has a near - term pattern of strong supply and weak demand [3][20][30][44]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Section - **Market News Impact**: News that the Guinea government may require mining companies to build local smelters has potentially affected the shipping expectations of Simandou iron ore, pushing up the iron ore futures market, but the event is highly uncertain [3]. - **Trading Logic**: The market interprets the price increase as due to steel mill复产 and restocking after the parade and a decline in Brazilian ore shipments. Currently, hot metal production is expected to quickly return to a high level, while steel products are in a supra - seasonal de - stocking phase. In this situation, profits should be reduced to suppress supply, but the peak - season demand has not been falsified, and there is resistance to the downward movement of steel product prices, allowing raw materials to squeeze profits [3]. - **Price Outlook**: The steel futures market is expected to be volatile and weak in the near term, waiting for verification of peak - season demand. Breaking the current deadlock requires signals of substantial improvement in peak - season demand or actual supply contraction [3]. - **Price Data**: On September 10, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3109 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3342 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan from the previous day [4]. Iron Ore Section - **Price Influencing Factors**: The main reason for yesterday's price increase was a news report, but the possibility of binding smelter construction to iron ore mining is low, and the event has poor tradability. Iron ore prices have been relatively firm recently due to steel mill复产 and weak coking coal, but there are increasing risks in the industry chain, including low steel mill profits, supra - seasonal inventory accumulation of hot - rolled coils, rising rebar inventory, and increasing supply pressure [20]. - **Price Data**: On September 10, 2025, the closing price of 01 iron ore contract was 805 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of 05 contract was 781 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of 09 contract was 847.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of September 5, 2025, the average daily hot metal production was 228.84 tons, a weekly decrease of 11.29 tons; the 45 - port ore handling volume was 317.78 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.86 tons; the apparent demand for five major steel products was 828 tons, a weekly decrease of 30 tons [24]. Coal and Coke Section - **Market Situation**: After the end of production restrictions, mines have resumed production. Steel mills have initiated a round of price cuts, and coking enterprises are pessimistic about the future, with a willingness to reduce coking coal inventory. The supply - demand balance of coking coal has deteriorated marginally, while the supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. In the short - term, the coking coal rebound space is limited, and in the long - term, investors need to be vigilant about the impact of macro - sentiment fluctuations on the coal and coke market [30]. - **Price Data**: On September 10, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1144 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1573 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [34]. Ferroalloy Section - **Market Situation**: The term structure of ferroalloys has gradually improved, with some contracts changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for short - term price increases. The long - term trading logic is based on the anti - involution expectation. The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [44]. - **Price Data**: On September 10, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 28 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan from the previous day; the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 176 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day [45][48]. Soda Ash Section - **Market Situation**: The mid - to long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high. The downstream demand is relatively stable, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to changes in cost and supply expectations [58]. - **Price Data**: On September 10, 2025, the closing price of soda ash 05 contract was 1353 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of 09 contract was 1162 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of 01 contract was 1281 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day [59]. Glass Section - **Market Situation**: The near - term supply - demand pattern of glass is one of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and limited short - term restocking ability. The supply is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend. The market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus. Attention should be paid to supply ignition expectations, coal price trends, and the impact of seasonal demand on inventory [84]. - **Price Data**: On September 10, 2025, the closing price of glass 05 contract was 1279 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of 09 contract was 995 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of 01 contract was 1181 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day [85].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, and gives corresponding trend judgments and operation suggestions [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Judgment**: Downstream construction restart expectations support raw material valuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][4][5] - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan or 0.25%. The open interest decreased by 5,586 lots to 501,397 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Super Special (56.5%) increased by 3.0 yuan to 688.0 yuan/ton, while the price of PB (61.5%) decreased by 3.0 yuan to 782.0 yuan/ton [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Market Judgment**: Affected by market sentiment, both show a strong and volatile trend, with trend strengths of 0 (neutral) for rebar and 1 (slightly strong) for hot-rolled coils [2][8][9] - **Fundamental Data**: The rebar futures contract RB2510 closed at 3,054 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 0.79%, and the open interest decreased by 51,071 lots. The hot-rolled coil futures contract HC2510 closed at 3,366 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan or 1.39%, and the open interest decreased by 29,686 lots. Spot prices generally increased slightly [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, a slight increase of 1.6% from the previous month. The export average price was 702.2 US dollars/ton, a slight increase of 2.2% from the previous month. From January to July, the cumulative export of steel was 67.983 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, and the export average price was 699.7 US dollars/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Judgment**: Market anti-involution information has heated up again, both showing a strong and volatile trend, with trend strengths of 1 (slightly strong) [2][13][16] - **Fundamental Data**: The ferrosilicon 2511 contract closed at 5,598 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan, and the silicomanganese 2511 contract closed at 5,830 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple steel mills have determined ferrosilicon and silicomanganese procurement prices and quantities. South32 announced the offer prices for South African semi-carbonate lump ore and Australian lump ore in October 2025, both up 0.05 US dollars/ton-degree from the previous month. As of September 5, the total manganese ore inventory was 440.48 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1 million tons from the previous month [14][17] Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Judgment**: Expectations are fluctuating, showing a wide-range volatile trend, with trend strengths of 0 (neutral) [2][18][19] - **Fundamental Data**: The coking coal futures contract JM2601 closed at 1,094.5 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan or 1.0%, and the coke futures contract J2601 closed at 1,581.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan or 0.8%. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Action Plan for Steady Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026" [19] Logs - **Market Judgment**: Weak and volatile, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][21][24] - **Fundamental Data**: The prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 all showed different degrees of decline. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has entered the peak season, but demand is weak, with steel mill profits shrinking and the market showing weak characteristics. If demand fails to recover, prices may decline further. Attention should be paid to terminal demand recovery and cost - side support [3]. - The "anti - involution" policy's impact on the black sector depends on its implementation and effectiveness. The focus in the near future is on real - world demand verification, and there is a risk of downward price adjustment due to potential mismatches between supply and demand [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3143 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (0.834%); the registered warehouse receipts were 230,131 tons, up 7,582 tons; the main contract position was 1.737894 million lots, up 1462 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3340 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (0.814%); the registered warehouse receipts were 24,459 tons, unchanged; the main contract position was 1.300035 million lots, up 16,610 lots [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall commodity market atmosphere is good, but steel prices are under pressure. Macro - level news has boosted the market, but export is weak. Rebar's apparent demand is weak and inventory accumulation pressure is high; hot - rolled coil has significant production cuts, and overall demand is neutral to weak with rising inventory [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The iron ore main contract (I2601) closed at 789.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.25% (- 2.00), and the position changed to 501,400 lots. The weighted position was 815,400 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 41.73 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.02% [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments have increased, with a slight decline in Australian shipments and a significant increase in Brazilian shipments. The near - end arrival volume has increased. The daily average molten iron output has decreased, and the steel mill profitability rate has continued to decline. Port inventory has increased, while steel mill imported ore inventory has decreased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On September 5th, the manganese silicon main contract (SM509) closed up 1.99% at 5844 yuan/ton; the ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) closed up 1.86% at 5598 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The "anti - involution" rumor has affected the market, but the focus in the future is on real - world demand verification. The fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the black sector's sentiment, especially that of coking coal [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2511) was 8820 yuan/ton, up 3.58% (+ 305). The weighted contract position increased by 11,979 lots to 493,883 lots. The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2511) was 56,735 yuan/ton, up 8.70% (+ 4540), and the weighted contract position increased by 55,722 lots to 372,715 lots [12][15]. - **Market Analysis**: Industrial silicon is in a "weak reality" situation, and its price may fluctuate. Polysilicon is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern, and its price may continue to rise if capacity integration makes progress [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1130 yuan, unchanged; the national floating glass sample enterprise inventory was 63.05 million weight cases, up 0.77% month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1210 yuan, up 20 yuan; the domestic soda ash factory inventory was 1.8221 million tons, up 0.15% [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: The glass market is stable with general trading, and prices have limited adjustment space. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and gradually increase in the long term, but the upside is restricted by demand [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The trading focus of the black sector in the near future (before mid - October) will be on the verification of real - end demand. There is a risk of a phased downward correction in demand, and peak - season demand may not match the current high supply, which will put pressure on prices and suppress the overall price of the black sector [15][96]. - The "anti - involution" in the commodities market is more of a rebound due to emotional fluctuations after prices have fallen to a phased low. Whether it can develop a second - stage market similar to the supply - side structural reform depends on the actual implementation and effects of the "anti - involution" policy [15][96]. - Both manganese silicon and silicon iron are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal, and their operability is relatively low [15][96]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manganese Silicon 3.1.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot was 5600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week and 300 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the futures main contract (SM601) closed at 5730 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton from last week and 306 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month. The basis was 60 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 1.04%, at a neutral level [14][20]. - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 350 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from last week and 13 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; in Ningxia, - 490 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton from last week and 173 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; in Guangxi, - 681 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton from last week and 150 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month [14][25]. - **Cost**: The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6030 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from last week and 27 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; in Ningxia, 5990 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from last week and 27 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; in Guangxi, 6361 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from last week and up 30 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month [14][30]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of manganese silicon was 21.28 tons, down 0.06 tons from last week. The cumulative weekly output decreased by about 2.68% compared with the same period last year. In August 2025, the output was 90.93 tons, up 8.96 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to August decreased by 26.28 tons or 3.82% year - on - year [14][44]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of rebar was 218.68 tons, down 1.88 tons from last week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of about 0.43%. The daily average pig iron output was 228.84 tons, down 11.29 tons from last week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44% [14][58]. - **Inventory**: The estimated explicit inventory of manganese silicon was 48.69 tons, down 0.82 tons from last week, continuing to decline but still at a high level compared with the same period [14][69]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that speculative positions mainly wait and see. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton and the support level around 5600 yuan/ton [15][78]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Market - Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot was 5600 yuan/ton, the futures main contract (SM601) closed at 5730 yuan/ton, the basis was 60 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 1.04%, at a neutral level [20]. 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi all decreased compared with last week and the beginning of last month [25]. - **Cost**: The prices of manganese ore and some raw materials changed. The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in main production areas had different changes [27][30]. 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly and monthly output of manganese silicon had different trends, with a year - on - year decrease in cumulative output from January to August [44]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of rebar decreased, and the daily average pig iron output decreased compared with last week but increased year - on - year. The steel mill's profitability decreased by 2.6 pct to 61.04% [58][61][62]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The explicit inventory of manganese silicon continued to decline, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the average available days of steel mill inventory increased slightly but were still at a low historical level [69][72][75]. 3.1.6 Graphical Trend - In August, the manganese silicon futures price first rebounded and then declined. Last week, it rebounded after reaching the support level. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [78]. 3.2 Silicon Iron 3.2.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: Tianjin 72 silicon iron spot was 5650 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week and 250 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the futures main contract (SF511) closed at 5496 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week and 338 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month. The basis was 154 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 2.73%, at a relatively high level [95][101]. - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai all decreased compared with last week and the beginning of last month [95][106]. - **Cost**: The estimated production cost in main production areas was basically stable compared with last week [95][112]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of silicon iron was 11.5 tons, up 0.19 tons from last week. The cumulative weekly output increased by about 1.22% compared with the same period last year. In August 2025, the output was 49.33 tons, up 4.66 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to August increased by 2.8 tons or 0.78% year - on - year [95][117]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output was 228.84 tons, down 11.29 tons from last week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44%. The cumulative output of metallic magnesium from January to August decreased by 3.31 tons or 5.73% year - on - year. The cumulative export of silicon iron from January to July decreased by 1.22 tons or 4.93% year - on - year [95][126][129]. - **Inventory**: The estimated explicit inventory of silicon iron was 16.78 tons, down 0.16 tons from last week, remaining at a high level compared with the same period [95][140]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that speculative positions mainly wait and see. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton and the support levels of 5400 - 5450 yuan/ton [96][149]. 3.2.2 Futures and Spot Market - Tianjin 72 silicon iron spot was 5650 yuan/ton, the futures main contract (SF511) closed at 5496 yuan/ton, the basis was 154 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 2.73%, at a relatively high level [101]. 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in main production areas decreased compared with last week and the beginning of last month [106]. - **Cost**: The prices of some raw materials were stable, and the estimated production cost in main production areas was basically stable compared with last week [109][112]. 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly and monthly output of silicon iron increased, with a year - on - year increase in cumulative output from January to August [117]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel and non - steel sectors had different trends. The daily average pig iron output decreased compared with last week but increased year - on - year. The output of metallic magnesium and silicon iron exports decreased year - on - year [126][129][132]. 3.2.5 Inventory - The explicit inventory of silicon iron continued to decline, and the average available days of steel mill inventory increased slightly but were still at a low level compared with the same period [140][143]. 3.2.6 Graphical Trend - In August, the silicon iron futures price first rebounded and then declined. Last week, it rebounded after reaching the support level. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [149].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, demonstrating resilience in profitability despite the downturn in the ferroalloy and caustic soda PVC industries. The report anticipates limited further decline in the industry, with the company's performance gradually stabilizing [2][11] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 27,006 million, a decrease of 4.9% from 2024 - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2,054 million, reflecting an increase of 11.2% from 2024 - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.73 yuan for 2025, with a gradual increase to 0.89 yuan by 2027 - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 8.8% in 2024 to 11.1% in 2027 [4][12] Industry Performance - The ferroalloy segment showed stable operations, with silicon iron and silicon manganese production at 79.28 and 9.58 million tons respectively in the first half of 2025 - The PVC and caustic soda segments experienced production growth, with PVC output at 54.33 million tons and caustic soda at 36.32 million tons, reflecting increases of 2.54 and 2.11 million tons respectively [11][12] Valuation - The target price for the company has been raised to 13.14 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18 times for 2025, which is slightly below the industry average of 21.33 times [11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The high supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese suppresses prices, but there is support from the cost side [4]. - The "anti - involution" rumor led to a rebound in ferrous alloy prices, but the rumor is unconfirmed, and the high - supply problem remains, so the upside potential of the rebound should not be over - estimated. If the price exceeds the cost line by more than 200, attention should be paid to the pressure [4]. - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased significantly due to the military parade and is expected to rebound next week, which will boost raw material demand. However, if the demand recovery in September is slow, steel mills may cut production to reduce inventory, leading to downward pressure on raw material demand [4]. - The cost of ferromanganese is supported by stable electricity prices in major production areas, stable port inventory of manganese ore (significantly lower than last year), firm spot prices at ports, and a slightly stronger quotation from overseas mines in October [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Supply**: This week, the output of ferrosilicon increased slightly, while that of ferromanganese decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to whether the output will continue to decline [4]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased significantly due to the military parade and is expected to rebound next week, which will boost raw material demand. However, the continuous increase in steel inventory may lead to steel mill production cuts and downward pressure on raw material demand if the demand recovery in September is slow [4]. - **Cost**: The electricity price in major production areas and the port inventory of manganese ore are stable. The port inventory of manganese ore is significantly lower than last year, and the spot price at ports is firm. Overseas mines' quotations for October are slightly stronger, providing support for ferromanganese [4]. - **Market sentiment**: The "anti - involution" rumor on Friday led to a significant rebound in ferrous alloy prices. However, the rumor is unconfirmed, and the high - supply problem remains, so the upside potential of the rebound should not be over - estimated [4]. 3.1.2 Strategy - **Single - side trading**: In the short term, follow the rebound. Due to the high - supply problem, do not be overly optimistic about the rebound height. Pay attention to the pressure levels of around 5800 for ferrosilicon and 6000 for ferromanganese [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [5]. - **Options**: Sell straddle combinations on rallies [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis No specific content that can be summarized separately is provided. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 228.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.29 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types was 2.01 tons (about 70% of the total demand), a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 tons. The weekly demand for ferromanganese in five major steel types (70%) was 12.37 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons [10]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 36.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2%. The weekly supply of ferrosilicon was 11.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent ferromanganese enterprises was 46.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55%. The weekly supply of ferromanganese (99%) was 21.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 tons [11]. - **Inventory**: In the week of September 5th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 6.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.36 tons. The inventory of 63 independent ferromanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) was 16.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.15 tons [12]. 3.3.2 Spot Price - Basis No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of price and basis trends are presented [16][17]. 3.3.3 Production Situation of Dual - Silicon Enterprises No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of weekly output and operating rate trends are presented [21][22]. 3.3.4 Steel Mill Production Situation No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of blast furnace capacity utilization, steel production, profitability, and inventory trends are presented [27][28]. 3.3.5 Ferromanganese Cost and Profit - On September 4, 2025, the production cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5798 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 118 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the production cost was 5880 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 380 yuan/ton; in Guangxi, the production cost was 6393 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 693 yuan/ton; in Guizhou, the production cost was 6133 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 483 yuan/ton. The production cost in the north was 5824 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 206 yuan/ton; in the south, the production cost was 6247 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 575 yuan/ton [30]. 3.3.6 Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - On September 4, 2025, the production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5535 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 315 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the production cost was 5588 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 388 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi, the production cost was 5600 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 400 yuan/ton; in Qinghai, the production cost was 5457 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 257 yuan/ton; in Gansu, the production cost was 5609 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 409 yuan/ton [40]. 3.3.7 Cost of Carbon Elements and Electricity Price No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of price trends are presented [47][48]. 3.3.8 Bidding Prices of Dual - Silicon by Representative Steel Mills in Hebei No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of price trends are presented [52][53]. 3.3.9 Monthly Output of Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of output and cumulative output trends are presented [58][59]. 3.3.10 Import and Export of Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of import and export volume trends are presented [65][66]. 3.3.11 Demand for Magnesium Metal No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of price and output trends are presented [68][69]. 3.3.12 Silicon - Iron Inventory of Alloy Plants and Steel Mills No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of inventory and available - days trends are presented [71][72]. 3.3.13 Manganese Ore Inventory of Alloy Plants, Steel Mills, and Ports No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of inventory and available - days trends are presented [73][74].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term, with potential for demand repair but continued inventory accumulation. The spread between hot - rolled and rebar futures may narrow. Coal prices face pressure if coal mine production cuts do not materialize [3][4]. - The double - coking market is expected to have low activity, with prices in a wide - range oscillation due to balanced supply - demand and uncertainty in future coal production regulation [9]. - The iron ore market will mainly oscillate, with supply from major mines remaining stable and demand showing a pattern of weakening domestic demand and high - growth overseas demand [12]. - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese markets are expected to have bottom - oscillating prices, with supply at a high level and demand facing some uncertainties [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: Most steel mills in Tangshan conducted blast furnace maintenance from August 31 to September 3, with a production restriction of 30% - 40%. Most resumed production on September 4. US ADP employment in August was 54,000, lower than the expected 65,000. Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in some regions changed slightly [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector maintained an oscillating trend at night. This week, steel production decreased significantly due to the parade, and demand in North China was also affected, leading to faster inventory accumulation. Iron - water production is expected to recover rapidly next week, but demand is still in the off - season. The spread between hot - rolled and rebar futures may narrow [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain a bottom - oscillating trend; Arbitrage: Hold short positions on the hot - rolled - rebar spread and enter a 1 - 5 positive spread; Option: Wait and see [6]. Double - Coking - **Related Information**: This week, the utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased, and the daily output of raw coal and clean coal decreased. The inventory of raw coal increased, while that of clean coal decreased. Steel mill indicators such as blast furnace operation rate and iron - water output also changed. Spot prices of coke and coking coal were provided [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the event, coal mines and steel mills are resuming production. Weak steel prices restrict raw - material prices. Coking coal prices are declining slightly, and coke prices are stable but with a downward - adjustment expectation. The supply - demand of coking coal is balanced, and prices are expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillate; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see; Spot - futures: Wait and see [10]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The US - Japan trade agreement was implemented, and US ADP employment data was released. The balance of personal mortgage loans of six major state - owned banks decreased. Spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port increased, and the basis of the 01 iron - ore main contract was provided [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron - ore prices oscillated at a high level this week. Supply from major mines was stable, and non - mainstream supply increased. Domestic demand for steel in the manufacturing industry weakened, while overseas demand remained high. The market expectation was volatile [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillate, with spot hedging at a phased high; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [13]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Related Information**: Spot prices of manganese ore and the purchase price of ferrosilicon by a steel mill were provided [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: The spot price of ferrosilicon was slightly weak, with supply at a high level and demand facing uncertainties. The spot price of silicomanganese was also slightly weak, with supply and demand in a state of balance and cost relatively stable [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Bottom - oscillate; Arbitrage: Gradually take profit on spot - futures positive spreads; Option: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices [16].