格隆汇12月24日丨天津发展(00882.HK)公告，于2025年12月24日，力生制药(公司间接非全资附属公司) 与兴业银行订立第十二份兴业银行理财协议，以本金金额人民币8500万元(相当于约港币9340.7万元)认 购另一项结构性存款。 ...

Metal Market - Domestic base metals collectively rose, with nickel leading at a 4.68% increase, reaching a peak of 130,880 yuan/ton, a new high since April 2025 [1] - Copper rose by 2.33%, hitting a record high of 96,750 yuan/ton, while lead increased by 1.53% [1] - Lithium carbonate surged by 5.89%, reaching a peak of 127,880 yuan/ton, a new high since November 2023 [1] - In the black metal sector, stainless steel rose by 1.4%, and iron ore increased by 0.26% [1] - Internationally, base metals also saw gains, with tin up by 1.23% and copper reaching a historical high of $12,282/ton [1] Precious Metals - COMEX gold rose by 0.37%, reaching a historical high of $4,555.4/ounce [2] - COMEX silver increased by 1.83%, peaking at $72.75/ounce, also a historical high [2] - Domestic gold rose by 0.63%, hitting a new high of 1,022.88 yuan/gram, while silver surged by 8.12%, reaching 17,671 yuan/kilogram [2] - Platinum and palladium both saw significant increases, with platinum up by 7% and palladium by 6.99% [2] Macro Environment - In November, China's total electricity consumption increased by 6.2% year-on-year, totaling 835.6 billion kWh [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for strategic restructuring and high-quality mergers in state-owned enterprises [7] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 208 billion yuan through reverse repos [7] - The US dollar index fell by 0.08% to 97.82, marking three consecutive declines [8]

Core Viewpoint - Several Wall Street institutions believe that the market style may shift towards cyclical sectors due to changes in the macro environment [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Goldman Sachs reports that cyclical stocks have outperformed defensive stocks for 14 consecutive trading days, marking the longest winning streak in over 15 years [1] - Goldman Sachs' economists expect U.S. real GDP growth to accelerate to 2.5% in 2026, surpassing the market consensus of nearly 2% [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Piper Sandler's Chief Investment Strategist, Michael Kantrowitz, indicates that investors are beginning to sense signs of a recovery in cyclical sectors [1] - Multiple institutions forecast that financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary sectors are likely to perform well in 2026 [1] - Citigroup strategists recommend investors to increase holdings in financial stocks while underweighting consumer staples [1] - The Citigroup team, led by Adam Pickett, notes that industrial stocks also have potential for rating upgrades [1]

美国商务部的数据显示，消费者支出增长3.5%，高于第二季度的2.5%。按照贡献度计算，个人消费支 出拉动当季经济增长2.39个百分点；但这一增速并不意味着需求驱动的加速足以支持经济预期的持续重 估。拉动GDP的另一动力来自于出口，净出口拉动当季经济增长1.59个百分点。政府消费支出和投资拉 动当季经济增长0.39个百分点；私人库存投资拖累当季经济增长0.22个百分点。 经济学家认为，美国三季度经济延续了增长势头，但受联邦政府"停摆"影响，四季度经济增长可能面临 压力并出现放缓。2025年全年经济增速或为2%甚至更低水平。 美国商务部23日公布的首次预估数据显示，今年第三季度美国国内生产总值(GDP)环比按年率计算增长 4.3%，高于第二季度3.8%的增速。 美国商务部表示，三季度经济增速加快主要由于消费支出增长提速，以及出口和政府支出增加。数据显 示，当季占美国经济总量约70%的个人消费支出增长3.5%，政府消费支出和投资增幅为2.2%，出口增长 8.8%。反映企业投资状况的非住宅类固定资产投资当季仅增长2.8%，显著低于前一季度的7.3%。 乍一看，这一数据令人侧目。但是，金融市场却表现出格外的冷静。衡量美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Encouragement Directory for Foreign Investment Industries (2025 Edition)" aims to attract and utilize foreign investment more effectively, with new regulations set to take effect on February 1, 2026 [1][5]. Summary by Categories Changes in the Encouragement Directory - The new directory includes a total of 1,679 entries, with a net increase of 205 entries and 303 modifications compared to the 2022 version [1][5]. - The national directory for encouraging foreign investment now has 619 entries, an increase of 100, while the directory for advantageous industries in central and western regions has 1,060 entries, with an increase of 105 [1][5]. Focus Areas for Foreign Investment - The directory emphasizes three main areas for foreign investment: 1. **Advanced Manufacturing**: New or expanded entries in terminal products, components, and raw materials to enhance the development of industrial and supply chains [2][6]. 2. **Modern Services**: New or expanded entries in business services, technical services, scientific research, and service consumption to promote high-quality development in the service sector [2][6]. 3. **Regional Investment**: Encouragement for foreign investment in central and western regions, northeastern regions, and Hainan Province, tailored to local resources and industrial development [3][7]. Foreign Investment Trends - From January to November 2025, China utilized 693.18 billion RMB in foreign investment, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%, but with a significant monthly increase of 26.1% in November [3][7]. - The number of newly established foreign-invested enterprises reached 61,207, marking a growth of 16.9% [3][7]. Future Strategies for Attracting Foreign Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to enhance foreign investment through three strategies: 1. **Expanding Foreign Capital Inflow**: Utilizing major foreign investment projects to create a green channel for project construction and addressing national-level issues related to land, sea use, environmental assessments, and energy consumption [3][7]. 2. **Improving Satisfaction of Foreign Enterprises**: Conducting special actions to understand and resolve issues faced by foreign enterprises in investment and operations, while enhancing communication with foreign investors [3][7]. 3. **Building Investment Cooperation Platforms**: Organizing international investment cooperation activities to facilitate project negotiations and signings [4][8].

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the awakening of value in China's capital market, moving towards a low-volatility and high-Sharpe ratio investment phase [1][6][26]. Economic Outlook - China's economy is expected to emerge from its low point and enter a recovery phase, with exports remaining a key support for macroeconomic performance in 2026 [1][30]. - Despite overall external demand pressure, China's manufacturing competitiveness remains intact, particularly in the midstream sector, which is expected to show resilience in exports [1][30]. - CPI is likely to trend positively, with a high certainty of turning positive, reflecting the ongoing recovery in domestic demand [1][30][33]. - PPI is expected to show an upward trend, but its year-on-year positive growth needs to be verified in the second quarter [1][30][37]. Policy Perspective - Macro policies are shifting away from "extraordinary" measures, focusing instead on stabilizing expectations and supporting economic operations [2][26]. - The emphasis will be on sustainable policy adjustments rather than large-scale stimulus, with a focus on balancing short-term and long-term goals [2][27]. Asset Allocation Insights - In 2026, a "dual bull market" in stocks and bonds is unlikely; the focus will be on asymmetric volatility between the two asset classes [2][5]. - Investors are encouraged to consider undervalued, high-dividend sectors for allocation, while speculative funds should target industries with high capacity utilization and limited capital expenditure [2][5]. Sector-Specific Analysis - The midstream manufacturing sector is identified as the most certain area of prosperity for 2026, supported by enhanced export competitiveness and the implementation of anti-involution policies [5][30]. - The return on equity (ROE) in midstream manufacturing is expected to stabilize and improve, with PPI year-on-year growth anticipated to stop declining in the first half of the year [5][30]. Market Dynamics - The trend of residents moving their savings into financial assets is expected to continue, although risk appetite may not rise rapidly [2][5]. - The stock market's trading volume is projected to remain high but may not see significant increases compared to previous years [2][5]. Price Trends - The housing market's recovery is contingent on mortgage rates being lower than rental yields, which is a critical condition for stabilizing property prices [5][40]. - The relationship between mortgage rates and rental yields is highlighted as a key indicator for predicting housing price stabilization [5][40].

Group 1 - The U.S. recently approved a record $11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan, including offensive weapons such as M109A7 self-propelled howitzers and HIMARS long-range strike systems, aimed at enhancing Taiwan's military capabilities and complicating China's efforts for reunification [1] - The arms sale is seen as a political tool by U.S. politicians, particularly as the midterm elections approach, with Trump leveraging it to appeal to conservative factions and the military-industrial complex while diverting attention from domestic issues [1] - Taiwan's defense budget is expected to exceed 3% of its GDP due to the costly arms acquisition, leading to a potential cycle of debt and economic strain, as funds are diverted from social welfare to military spending [9] Group 2 - China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to $688.7 billion, the lowest since 2008, signaling a strategic decision to lower risk and reduce dependence on dollar assets amid rising U.S. debt and fiscal instability [3] - The Chinese military has demonstrated its capabilities with increased activity around Taiwan, including the deployment of aircraft and naval vessels, indicating a strong military response to perceived provocations [5] - The disparity in military capabilities between China and Taiwan is stark, with Taiwan's military relying heavily on imports and facing challenges in self-production, while China's military strength continues to grow, complicating the security landscape in the region [7] Group 3 - The U.S. strategy of arming Taiwan and rallying allies like Japan and Australia is becoming less effective as American hegemony declines, with concerns over the credibility of the dollar increasing due to China's actions [9] - The arms sale is unlikely to resolve the U.S. economic challenges or support Taiwan's independence aspirations, as the military assets acquired may not enhance security but rather hinder Taiwan's economic development [9] - Historically, the process of national reunification is viewed as irreversible, with external interventions and internal resistance unable to alter the eventual outcome of Taiwan's return to China [10]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market closed early on December 24 due to the holiday, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.17% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.19% [1] - Nuclear power stocks led the gains, with China General Nuclear Power Corporation rising over 5% [1] - Semiconductor stocks also performed well, with SMIC and Jingmen Semiconductor both increasing by over 3%, while Huahong Semiconductor and Shanghai Fudan rose by over 1% [1] Group 2 - The article highlights a strong performance in the optical communication sector, with Cambridge Technology rising over 5% [1] - Other sectors that saw gains include dairy products, electric equipment, food, non-ferrous metals, building materials, cement, and gold [1] - Conversely, sectors such as film, lithium batteries, home appliances, domestic banks, port transportation, and innovative pharmaceuticals experienced declines [1] Group 3 - The semiconductor sector showed slight fluctuations, with major companies like Alibaba, Meituan, Xiaomi, JD.com, and Baidu experiencing declines of less than 1% [2] - Individual stock movements included a significant rise of 22.23% for Baidu's stock after being included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, while Youjia saw a drop of over 7% [4] - The article notes that over 3,800 stocks rose, with commercial aerospace and chip concepts experiencing a surge, and Zhongjin Resources rising over 6% [6]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20251224 25Q3 美国 GDP：过时的数据，过度的反应 ——美国 2025 年三季度 GDP 数据点评 2025 年 12 月 24 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《2026 年转债策略：从收益增强转向 风险平衡》 2025-12-22 《技术帖：如何量化央行购金对金价 的影响？》 2025-12-22 东吴证券研究所 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：25Q3 美国 GDP 季环比折年增长+4.3%，大幅好于彭博分析 师一致预期的+3.3%与亚特兰大联储 GDPNow 的+3.5%。从结构看，消 费强劲与库存拖累 ...

投资者正以极度乐观的姿态步入新的一年，尽管心中仍对2026年可能面临的挑战存有顾虑，但当下的做多热情已占据主导地位。 据美国银行（Bank of America）最新的基金经理调查显示， 基金经理们的现金水平已大幅降至资产管理规模的3.3%，创下历史新低 。与此同时，投资者对经 济增长、股票和大宗商品的信心爆棚，这两类通常在经济扩张期表现良好的资产， 其合计敞口已达到2022年2月以来的最高水平 。 12月23日，彭博市场策略师Michael Msika发文称，这种近乎"满仓"的激进仓位反映出， 市场对进一步反弹的预期压倒了对高估值、人工智能（AI）巨额资本 支出以及盈利预期的担忧 。尽管科技股仍是主要驱动力，但 投资者在过去两个月已开始进行板块轮动，随着更有吸引力的投资机会出现，这种轮动正在拓宽 市场的上涨广度。 文章也指出，有策略师们警告称，在这股乐观情绪背后，经济前景并非没有阴云。 通胀的粘性、劳动力市场的动态变化以及美联储微妙的平衡术，仍是投资者 需要警惕的结构性风险。 极度乐观的仓位配置 根据美国银行的基金经理调查数据，随着新年的临近，仓位情况显得相当拥挤。投资者大幅削减现金持有量，转而押注于风险资 ...