Group 1 - Foreign investment in Japanese bonds for the week of June 13 amounted to 434.5 billion yen, a significant increase from the previous value of 219.8 billion yen [1]

美国财政部周三公布的数据显示，在总统特朗普于4月宣布对外贸易伙伴加征惩罚性关税之后，海外投 资者对美国长期国债的信心出现动摇，当月净抛售金额高达408亿美元，创下自去年12月以来的最大月 度净卖出规模。 当前美国政府债券市场总规模已达28.6万亿美元。尽管4月的抛售金额在整体规模中占比不高，但其意 义重大。财政部报告显示，截至目前外国投资者共持有约9.013万亿美元美国国债，占全部国债市场的 31.5%，相比去年夏天的8.3万亿美元显著增加。 这份报告是美财政部首次披露特朗普新关税政策出台后外国投资者对美国国债需求变化的官方数据。下 一期关于2025年5月的数据报告预计将于7月17日公布。 市场分析人士指出，海外投资者对美债的持仓变化成为近期焦点，原因在于美国高债务水平叠加强硬的 贸易政策，可能令国际资本对美国财政可持续性产生担忧，从而减少对美债的配置。若这种趋势延续， 可能造成债券价格下跌、收益率上升，加剧美国财政融资压力。 4月美国国债市场经历历史性抛售潮。据道琼斯市场数据显示，当月30年期国债收益率录得自1987年以 来最大单周涨幅，10年期国债收益率的单周升幅则创下自2001年经济衰退结束以来的最高纪 ...

Core Viewpoint - In April, foreign investors' holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds experienced a slight decline for the first time in five months, dropping from a record high of $9.049 trillion in March to $9.013 trillion, indicating that despite the impact of President Trump's erratic tariff policies, there has not been a significant sell-off [1]. Group 1 - Foreign investors' holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds decreased for the first time in five months [1]. - The decline in holdings was from a historical high of $9.049 trillion to $9.013 trillion [1]. - The sell-off observed was described as relatively mild, according to Zachary Griffiths from Credit Sights [1]. Group 2 - The decline in foreign holdings occurred after the announcement of tariffs on April 2, which led to fluctuations in the stock market and the U.S. dollar [1]. - Concerns about a large-scale sell-off of U.S. Treasuries appear to be unfounded based on the data [1].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remained stable at 4.3909% during the late trading session on June 18, with intraday trading ranging between 4.4087% and 4.3377%, exhibiting a V-shaped trend [1] Group 1 - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 1.04 basis points, settling at 3.9414%, and later slightly increased to 3.9561%, marking a new daily high [1] - Following the release of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision statement and economic projections (SEP) at 02:00 Beijing time, the 2-year yield plummeted to 3.8824%, reaching a new daily low, before narrowing its losses [1]

市场分析：美联储下一个可能降息的窗口将是9月 金十数据6月19日讯，分析师Matthias Scheiber表示，由于围绕关税的不确定性持续存在，美国劳动力市 场依然强劲，美联储对利率采取了普遍预期的"观望"态度。从我们的角度来看，美联储下一个可能降息 的窗口将是9月。我们预计，如果通胀率继续降至2.0%的目标，美联储今年可能会降息两次。"我们预 计股市表现将继续波动，并继续青睐美国股市、国际股票和新兴市场股票的低价部分，因为估值更好， 更多的财政和货币刺激可能会到来，以及一些美国大型股的估值更高。""鉴于整体收益率仍具吸引力， 我们对高质量债券的前景依然看好。" ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the bid-to-cover ratio for the 4-month U.S. Treasury auction held on June 18 was 2.88, a decrease from the previous value of 2.96 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The German bond market experienced a decline in yields across various maturities, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and potential market adjustments [1] Group 1: Yield Movements - The yield on the 10-year German government bond fell by 3.9 basis points, reaching a daily low of 2.496% [1] - The 2-year German bond yield decreased by 2.6 basis points, settling at 1.842%, with intraday trading between 1.876% and 1.842% [1] - The 30-year German bond yield dropped by 4.2 basis points, hitting a daily low of 2.943% [1] Group 2: Yield Spread - The spread between the 2-year and 10-year German bond yields narrowed by 0.999 basis points, reported at +65.230 basis points [1]

Group 1 - The winning bid rate for U.S. Treasury auctions for the four weeks ending June 18 is 4.06%, a slight decrease from the previous value of 4.08% [1]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 陆家嘴论坛后，宽松交易或延续 2025 年 6 月 18 日上午，第十五届陆家嘴论坛开幕。2024 年陆家嘴论坛央行行 长发表关于当前的货币政策立场和未来货币政策框架的相关表态，其后货币政 策框架改革加速推进，故市场对于本次论坛内容较为关注。本文主要回顾 2019 年以来历次会议央行领导的主题发言内容以及债券市场表现。 陆家嘴论坛央行行长讲话回顾 回顾 2019 年以来央行行长的演讲的内容，2019-2020 年：会议主要聚焦上海 "五个中心"定位。2021-2023 年：议题转向绿色金融与普惠金融等，会议主 题呼应"双碳"目标与小微实体支持。2024 年：议题聚焦货币政策框架改革， 推动货币政策实现了数量型和价格型调控并行向以价格型调控为主导、以利率 为核心的货币政策框架转变。 2025 年：本次会议演讲围绕全球金融治理展开。值得关注的是，央行领导在 全球金融稳定体系所面临的挑战中重点提及非银行中介机构的监管仍然薄弱 的问题，关注非银机构的杠杆水平变化以及后续监管落实。 历史陆家嘴论坛后的收益率表现 从债市表现看，由于历次论坛央行领导表态多与绿色发展、国际合作、金融开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is speculating on the inclusion of short- and medium-term government bonds in the reserve requirement, and there are high expectations for the central bank to restart government bond trading in the second half of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On June 18, government bond yields mostly rebounded after a significant decline, driven by improved sentiment in the bond market due to macroeconomic fundamentals and expectations of loose monetary policy [2][3]. - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.09% and the 10-year main contract falling by 0.01% [2]. Group 2: Speculation on Policy Changes - There is ongoing debate regarding the inclusion of short-term government bonds in the reserve requirement, with uncertainty about its implementation and timing [3]. - Analysts suggest that the best window for the central bank to restart government bond trading is expected in the second half of the year, particularly in the third quarter [3][4]. Group 3: Economic and Funding Conditions - The market anticipates that the central bank will restart bond purchases due to significant upcoming maturities of interbank certificates of deposit and increased buying of short-term bonds by major banks [4][5]. - Recent actions by the central bank, including multiple announcements of reverse repos, indicate a supportive stance towards the funding environment, which has contributed to a recovery in the overall leverage in the bond market [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The sentiment in the bond market is currently optimistic, with expectations of continued support from the central bank and a potential increase in net financing of government bonds in the third quarter [4][5]. - However, some analysts caution that the space for further declines in bond yields may be limited, particularly for the 10-year government bond yield, which faces resistance in the range of 1.5% to 1.6% [5].