来源：市场资讯 经营范围含技术进出口；自然科学研究和实验发展；工程和技术研究和试验发展；技术服务、技术开 发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广；新兴能源技术研发；工程管理服务；租赁服务（不含 许可类租赁服务）；货物进出口；储能技术服务；业务培训（不含教育培训、职业技能培训等需取得许 可的培训）。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动） 企业名称国家管网集团液化天然气有限公司法定代表人王晓刚注册资本50000万人民币国标行业科学研 究和技术服务业>研究和试验发展>工程和技术研究和试验发展地址天津经济技术开发区第二大街61号 泰达MSD-H1座1901室企业类型有限责任公司(法人独资)营业期限2025-12-26至无固定期限登记机关天 津经济技术开发区市场监督管理局 天眼查显示，近日，国家管网集团液化天然气有限公司成立，法定代表人为王晓刚，注册资本50000万 人民币，由国家石油天然气管网集团有限公司全资持股。 序号股东名称持股比例1国家石油天然气管网集团有限公司100% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the successful trial operation and production of the Guilin-Yangshuo-Lipu natural gas branch pipeline, contributing to the expansion of Guangxi's natural gas transmission infrastructure [1] - The newly commissioned natural gas long-distance pipelines in Guangxi have reached a total length of 537 kilometers by 2025, marking a significant achievement in the "14th Five-Year Plan" for natural gas pipeline construction [1] - Guangxi has established a total of 3,763 kilometers of natural gas long-distance pipelines, creating a comprehensive pipeline network that connects 14 prefecture-level cities and supports the energy needs of local industries and communities [1] Group 2 - The Energy Bureau of the Autonomous Region is implementing the new energy security strategy, focusing on the development of the "15th Five-Year Plan" for oil and gas in Guangxi [2] - During the "15th Five-Year" period, Guangxi aims to enhance its natural gas long-distance pipeline construction and optimize the regional oil and gas network layout to promote economic growth and high-quality development [2]

新华财经上海12月26日电 上海石油天然气交易中心26日消息，12月26日当周，在上海石油天然气交易中心成交的2025年12月交 付中国管道天然气现货价格为2.31元／立方米。 上海石油天然气交易中心每周五对外发布"中国管道天然气现货价格"的各省区市价格与全国加权平均价格，遇到节假日提前到 节假日前最后一个工作日发布。 此外，上海石油天然气交易中心还将在每月底发布"中国管道天然气现货月度均价"。 上海石油天然气交易中心是在国家发展改革委、国家能源局直接指导下，由上海市人民政府批准设立的能源交易平台，是深化 国内油气价格市场化改革的重要支撑。 （文章来源：新华财经） | 交易日期 | 交付地区 | 交付月份 | 价格(元/立方 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 米) | | 2025 年 12 月 20 日至 26 日 | 全国 | 2025 年 12 月 | 2.31 | 据介绍，"中国管道天然气现货价格"基于上海石油天然气交易中心的管道天然气现货交易，反映的是当月或下月交付到国内各 省区市天然气长输管道起始点（交付点）的管道天然气现货的价格。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - TTF/JKM/HH: Bearish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the US natural gas market will shift from balance to surplus as supply growth outpaces demand growth [2][21][22] - European natural gas demand lacks incremental drivers, with overall stable consumption due to the absence of extremely cold winters and high gas prices [3][60] - The Chinese natural gas market will remain in a supply - surplus pattern in 2026, though demand may grow slightly more than in 2025 [4][98] - In 2026, the global natural gas market is in a capacity expansion cycle, and major economies face insufficient endogenous consumption growth. Key benchmark prices will face downward pressure [5][116] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 2025 Natural Gas Market Review - The gas price trend in 2025 was generally in line with the previous forecast. Nymex had the highest volatility, and its price was pushed to a high of 5.4 USD/MMBtu in December [15] - Demand in major consumption areas was weak. Chinese demand shifted from high - speed to low - speed growth, European consumption was stagnant, and US total demand growth was dragged down by negative growth in gas - fired power generation [18] - Supply was in the commissioning cycle. North American LNG liquefaction capacity was released in 2025, and there was a structural adjustment in supply between Asia and Europe [19] 3.2 2026 US Natural Gas Market: From Balance to Surplus 3.2.1 US LNG Exports in 2026 - LNG exports will still lead US demand growth, mainly due to partial commissioning of Golden Pass and the ramp - up of Corpus Christi stage 3 [22] - In 2025, US LNG exports increased by 22 million tons, with a significant increase to Europe and a decline to Asia. The US has become highly dependent on the European market [28] - In 2026, US liquefaction capacity will further grow with the commissioning of Golden Pass's first two liquefaction lines, and PNG exports to Mexico will also increase [37][38] 3.2.2 Gas - Fired Power in the Future - In 2025, US gas - fired power generation decreased in the first three quarters, mainly due to the reverse substitution of coal - fired power caused by high gas prices and the repair of coal - fired power ignition spread [39] - Renewable power, especially photovoltaics, will increasingly squeeze gas - fired power. The future new gas - fired power installations will have limited impact on demand [40][41] 3.2.3 US Dry Gas Production in 2026 - US dry gas production is expected to continue growing in 2026, though the growth rate may be lower than in 2025. The growth is related to capital expenditure inertia and price expectations [50] 3.3 Global LNG Expansion and Russia - EU Energy Decoupling - European natural gas demand remains stable overall, with limited growth in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors. However, gas - fired power demand has increased, especially in Germany and Poland [60][61][62] - European natural gas supply has undergone significant structural adjustments. Further energy decoupling between Russia and Europe is feasible due to sufficient supply from North America and the Middle East. But Russian LNG may put pressure on the spot market [63] 3.4 More Russian Supplies to Asia Affecting the Spot Market - Chinese natural gas demand entered a low - growth stage in 2025, with industrial demand declining and gas - fired power demand increasing. Supply from domestic production and pipeline imports has squeezed LNG imports [96][97] - In 2026, Chinese natural gas demand may grow slightly, but the market will still be in surplus. More Russian LNG flowing to Asia may depress the spot market price [98] - Japanese and South Korean gas demand has a limited impact on Northeast Asia, and overall Asian demand was weak in 2025 [99] 3.5 Investment Recommendations - In 2026, the main benchmark prices TTF, JKM, and HH will face downward pressure. TTF/JKM volatility will be significantly lower than Nymex, making Nymex more valuable for trading. The Nymex price may fall below 3 USD/MMBtu in 1H26 [5][116]

Group 1: Market News and Key Data - On December 25, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated that the Ukrainian military used "Storm Shadow" missiles to attack the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery in Rostov Oblast, Russia, causing multiple explosions. The refinery is one of the largest suppliers of petroleum products in southern Russia and participates in fuel supply to Russian military forces [1]. - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia's plan to produce 100 million tons of liquefied natural gas per year has been postponed for several years due to sanctions, but the factory construction continues. Preparatory work for signing a commercial agreement for gas supply through the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline has entered the final stage. The domestic petroleum product market in Russia is currently fully balanced, and the inventory is even higher than the same period last year. The global oil market remains balanced, and the OPEC+ mechanism is effective in adjusting production in both directions [1]. - On December 25, the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity said that Iraq's national power generation is currently about 17,000 megawatts. Due to the interruption of Iranian natural gas supply, Iraq has lost about 4,500 megawatts of power generation capacity. The reasons for the gas supply suspension from Iran include technical problems and increased domestic energy demand in Iran due to cold winter weather [1]. Group 2: Investment Logic - Due to a significant increase in Iran's domestic demand for natural gas for winter heating, Iran has interrupted its natural gas exports to Iraq in winter to avoid a gas shortage. Similar situations have occurred multiple times in recent years. This will prompt Iraq to use more fuel oil for power generation. The root cause is the hard shortage of natural gas in Iran during winter. Iraq is highly dependent on Iran for natural gas and electricity imports, and this year, its imports of natural gas and electricity have been frequently interrupted due to Iran's gas shortage and US sanctions [2]. Group 3: Strategy and Risk - Strategy: Oil prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term and are a short - position allocation in the medium term [3]. - Downside risks: A peace agreement is reached in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and macro black - swan events occur [3]. - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions are caused by Middle East conflicts [3].

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Q3 2025 US GDP grew at an annualized rate of +4.3%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus expectation of +3.3% and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of +3.5% [1][7] - The strong consumer spending and reduced inventory drag were the main contributors to this growth, with inventory changes being the largest marginal contributor to the acceleration in GDP growth [1][7] - Despite the strong GDP data, the market's initial reaction suggested overheating, leading to a temporary cooling of interest rate cut expectations, which later reversed as asset prices adjusted [1][8] - Looking ahead, the report anticipates a significant cooling in Q4 2025 GDP growth due to government shutdown impacts, with short-term interest rate cut expectations depending on upcoming employment and inflation data [1][8] Fixed Income - The report notes that during the week of December 15-19, 2025, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose slightly from 1.8425% to 1.835% [2][9] - It emphasizes that the bond market's response to economic data has been muted, reflecting a focus on policy expectations rather than fundamental economic performance [9] - The report suggests that while there is limited immediate need for significant liquidity release through reserve requirement cuts, the possibility of easing policies in early 2026 remains [11] Industry Insights - Jiufeng Energy is focusing on expanding its commercial aerospace special gas market share through the development of its launch site and partnerships with rocket companies [19][20] - The company has completed the first phase of its Hainan commercial aerospace launch site project, with core products undergoing multiple launch validations, indicating a strong operational track record [19][20] - Jiufeng Energy's profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 1.56 billion, 1.80 billion, and 2.13 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.0, 15.6, and 13.2 [19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Traditional energy: The slowdown in crude oil supply growth may help prices bottom out; tight thermal coal supply is expected to push up coal price levels; LNG supply growth acceleration is exerting downward pressure on global gas price levels [2][3]. - Carbon market: In 2026, China's carbon market is expected to return to a supply - tight state, and carbon prices may rise with fluctuations; European carbon prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the central level possibly slightly declining following natural gas prices [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Supply: The supply growth rate has slowed, with geopolitical issues posing risks. OPEC+ continues to increase production but at a slower pace, halting production increases in Q1 2026; US production has entered a plateau phase and may face production cuts later. Non - US and non - OPEC+ supply increase expectations have also decreased. Overall supply remains loose, but the oversupply pressure has eased, and sanctioned countries' supply may decline periodically [9]. - Demand: Global oil demand growth continues to slow. Developed countries and China's oil demand have entered a plateau phase. Terminal demand lacks highlights, but structural contradictions in overseas refined oil markets and inventory replenishment in some regions support demand [10]. - Price: In a weak supply - demand scenario, the oil price center in 2026 may experience volatile bottom - building. The oversupply pressure will be relatively higher in H1, and the price may be lower in H1 and higher in H2 [11]. 3.2 Coal - Market situation: Since 2021, the coal market has been affected by multiple factors. Coal prices bottomed out in H1 2025, with clear cost support. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are likely to move within a range due to peaking coal demand during the energy transition [15]. - Supply control: To adapt to future coal demand changes and ensure energy security, coal supply needs to be controlled through stable production, safety supervision, and environmental monitoring [16]. - Demand: Coal demand remains resilient. New electricity demand, extreme weather, and the role of thermal power in the power system, as well as coal's use in the chemical industry, contribute to this resilience. Coal demand may peak between 2025 - 2027 and then enter a consumption plateau [17]. - Price: In 2026, coal supply has limited upward elasticity, and demand is moderately resilient. The fundamentals will shift from loose to balanced, with the price center potentially moving up to Rmb700 - 900 per tonne. Key factors include policy evolution and energy transition progress, and price dynamics are affected by unusual weather, speculative demand, market sentiment, and policy changes [18]. 3.3 Natural Gas 3.3.1 LNG - 2025 situation: Global supply growth exceeded 4%, but demand growth was less than 3%. By mid - Nov 2025, new production capacity added 42mn t, with a full - year expectation of over 46mn t. The actual supply increase exceeded 18mn t, with a growth rate over 4%, while the trade volume increase for the first ten months was only 9mn t, with a growth rate less than 3%. This led to a price trend of being higher in H1 and lower in H2 [22]. - 2026 outlook: The supply growth rate is expected to exceed 10%, while demand growth will be significantly lower. Capacity utilization will decline, and gas prices will face sustained pressure. Global production capacity is forecast to accelerate to over 60mn t, with actual supply increases potentially exceeding 40mn t, a growth rate of nearly 10%. The incremental output will mainly come from the US, Mexico, Qatar, and Nigeria. The global LNG trade growth rate in 2026 may be 3 - 4% or below 7% [23]. 3.3.2 Regional Market - Europe: The natural gas supply tends to ease due to global LNG capacity addition. Although Russian gas imports face uncertainty, the global supply increase can cover potential gaps. Residential and commercial gas usage will remain stable, and industrial gas consumption may slightly recover but is limited by energy transition. The gas price center faces downward pressure, and inventory replenishment pace is a key variable for seasonal prices [28]. - US: The market maintains a tight balance. Supply growth is expected to slow down, with some regions still having production potential, but associated gas production growth may decline. Domestic commercial and residential gas consumption may weaken, while industrial and power - sector demand are resilient. Exports will continue to grow strongly. The market is expected to continue inventory drawdown, with the price center staying at relatively high levels and regional structural contradictions becoming more pronounced [29]. 3.4 Carbon 3.4.1 Chinese Market - CEA: In 2026, the "tightening constraint" on quota carryovers in the national carbon market will disappear, and the market may return to the "reluctance to sell" logic. The net surplus of quotas will further decrease, and new demand from three new sectors may lead to carbon prices rising with fluctuations [31][32][33]. - CCER: The national CCER market is accelerating its "expansion". By Nov 6, 2025, 13 projects have completed emission reduction registration, with an initial volume of approximately 15.0428mt, and 11 projects are expected to complete registration in the next 6 months, adding about 7.5276mt of CCERs. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released more methodologies, and more may be issued in the future [34][35][38]. 3.4.2 European Market - EUA: European carbon prices will fluctuate within a range, with the central level potentially following natural gas prices to a slight downward adjustment. In 2026, natural gas supply will be more relaxed, and demand will be moderate. In the long - term, as the EU reduces the cap on allowances, carbon prices are likely to have a floor support [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's weekly oil prices closed lower. Trump's order to "block" Venezuelan oil tankers and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela had limited impact on crude oil supply and demand. Global supply and demand remained weak, and the market was in a state of oversupply. In the first quarter, the oversupply was significant, and it was advisable to short - sell the calendar spread and absolute prices [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily News - Iran's natural gas supply interruption caused Iraq to lose about 4500 megawatts of power - generating capacity due to technical issues and increased domestic energy demand in Iran during winter [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky had a phone call with US envoy Witkoff and Trump's senior advisor Kushner, and the Ukrainian military attacked a Russian refinery with "Storm Shadow" missiles [4] - The early - batch crude oil quota for 2026 was issued with a year - on - year increase, and the expectation of fuel oil feedstock weakened. The market was worried about Venezuelan fuel oil supply due to US sanctions, and the short - term sentiment was dominant [4] 3.2 Inventory - US API crude oil inventory in the week ending December 19 was 239.1 million barrels, with a previous value of - 932.2 million barrels; API refined oil inventory was 68.5 million barrels, with a previous value of 251.1 million barrels; API gasoline inventory was 109 million barrels, with a previous value of 483.5 million barrels [4] - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 127.4 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.3% [4] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 24.9 million barrels to 412.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.06% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1 million barrels to 1384.3 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 2052.1 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.82% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, US crude oil exports increased by 65.5 million barrels per day to 466.4 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: The import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves last week was 652.5 million barrels per day, a decrease of 6.4 million barrels per day compared with the previous week [5] 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - This week's weekly oil prices closed lower. Trump's order to "block" Venezuelan oil tankers led to an oil price rebound, and geopolitical events such as the Venezuela situation and the Russia - Ukraine conflict continued to occur [5] - Global supply and demand remained weak, and the market was in a state of oversupply. The oil market de - stocked this week, and on Friday, the calendar spreads of the three major crude oil markets rebounded slightly, while the crack spreads of global gasoline and diesel continued to weaken [5] - The US refinery operating rate was at a high level, and the domestic operating rate fluctuated. The oversupply in the fundamentals was confirmed, and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela had limited impact on crude oil supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the Israel - Iran situation [5] - In the first quarter, the oversupply was significant, and it was advisable to short - sell the calendar spread and absolute prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Ukraine and Russia, have influenced oil prices, with domestic SC crude oil rising by 2.2 yuan per barrel, approximately 0.5% [3][15]. Market Analysis - Domestic SC crude oil experienced a price increase, with a notable rise in high-sulfur fuel oil, which surged over 2% [3][15]. - The market reacted to news of Ukraine's missile strike on a major Russian oil facility, which is significant for fuel supply to Russian military forces [3][15]. - Despite the geopolitical tensions, Russian officials claim that they have replenished oil product inventories, which are reportedly higher than the previous year [3][15]. Geopolitical Context - Both China and Russia condemned the U.S. blockade against Venezuela, with Russia labeling it as a revival of "pirate behavior" [5][18]. - The geopolitical landscape continues to support oil prices, although the overall sentiment in the commodity market is optimistic, with a recent eight-day rise in the domestic commodity index [5][16]. - The oil market is expected to face resistance due to oversupply, with predictions of a sideways movement in oil prices for the remainder of the year [5][16]. Russian Energy Sector Developments - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister confirmed that Western sanctions have delayed the country's goal of producing 100 million tons of LNG by several years, indicating a significant setback in its LNG expansion strategy [6][17]. - Despite challenges in LNG projects, Russia is advancing its pipeline projects, particularly the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline, highlighting its commitment to diversifying export routes [6][17]. - The Russian oil product market is reportedly balanced, with current inventories exceeding those of the previous year, suggesting resilience in its refining and supply chain amid sanctions [6][17]. U.S. Military and Economic Strategy - The White House has directed U.S. military focus towards enforcing sanctions on Venezuelan oil for at least the next two months, indicating a strategic shift towards economic pressure rather than immediate military action [8][19].

Industry Updates - The National Energy Administration reported that from January to November, the national electricity market transaction volume exceeded 6 trillion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. This accounted for 63.7% of the total electricity consumption, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year. Intra-provincial transactions reached 4.583 trillion kilowatt-hours, a 6.3% increase, while inter-provincial transactions were 1.447 trillion kilowatt-hours, up 12.1% [2] - The first climate resource economic blue book was released, emphasizing the transformation of climate resources into goods and services through policies, market mechanisms, and technological innovation. This aims to create economic value and promote sustainable use of climate resources, which is significant for food security, industrial upgrading, and improving people's well-being [2] - The Zhejiang Tiantai Pumped Storage Power Station, the largest single-unit capacity pumped storage power station in China, has successfully connected its first unit to the grid. The project has a total investment of over 10 billion yuan and a total installed capacity of 1.7 million kilowatts [3] - The Tarim Oilfield's Bozi-Dabei gas field, China's largest ultra-deep condensate gas field, has achieved an annual gas production of over 10 billion cubic meters, significantly enhancing natural gas supply capabilities and ensuring national energy security [3] - Yunnan Province is promoting the integration of "artificial intelligence + wind-solar-water-storage" to optimize energy construction and scheduling, enhancing the management of renewable energy resources [4] - Guangdong Province is advancing the research and listing of futures products such as lithium hydroxide, aiming to develop a comprehensive system for new energy products and support the growth of strategic emerging industries [4] Corporate Developments - The State Grid Corporation of China is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan in fixed asset investment for the year, setting a historical record. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the total investment is projected to exceed 2.85 trillion yuan, accelerating the construction of a new power system [7] - China Huadian's installed capacity of renewable energy has surpassed 100 million kilowatts, with several projects including wind and solar power successfully connected to the grid [7]